Does anyone have the stats for this year and past years for teams that cover on Monday night and fail to cover the following week? This year it seems that the MNF cover teams have failed to cover every time the following week. Does it matter if the cover team is at home or on the road? I'm asking because the Packers have opened at -4.5 against the Eagles at Lambeau.
you would need to tell me exactly what you're looking for to run this properly but:
1) teams that covered MNF and what they did the following week, home or away, L3+ years
p:MNF and p:ats margin > 0 and season >= 2011 and ...
Showing 1 to 2 of 2 entries
same as above, last 10+ years:
p:MNF and p:ats margin > 0 and season >= 2003 and ...
Showing 1 to 2 of 2 entries
2) teams that failed to cover the game after covering MNF...by season L10 years:
pp:MNF and pp:ats margin > 0 and p:ats margin < 0 and ...
3) teams that covered both MNF and the following week....
pp:MNF and pp:ats margin > 0 and p:ats margin > 0 and ...
1) teams that covered MNF and what they did the following week, home or away, L3+ years
p:MNF and p:ats margin > 0 and season >= 2011 and ...
| games | ATS W - L- P (marg, %win) | Avg Line | OU W - L- P (marg, %over) | Avg Total | SU W - L- P (marg, %win) | SDQL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 16-6-3 (3.86, 72.7%) | 1.5 | 12-13-0 (0.72, 48.0%) | 44.4 | 14-11-0 (2.32, 56.0%) | site = away |
| 33 | 18-15-0 (0.89, 54.5%) | -3.2 | 23-10-0 (5.58, 69.7%) | 47.1 | 19-13-1 (4.12, 59.4%) | site = home |
same as above, last 10+ years:
p:MNF and p:ats margin > 0 and season >= 2003 and ...
| games | ATS W - L- P (marg, %win) | Avg Line | OU W - L- P (marg, %over) | Avg Total | SU W - L- P (marg, %win) | SDQL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 44-31-4 (1.33, 58.7%) | 0.2 | 37-41-1 (0.82, 47.4%) | 42.6 | 38-41-0 (1.15, 48.1%) | site = away |
| 114 | 59-53-2 (1.02, 52.7%) | -4.6 | 62-49-3 (2.29, 55.9%) | 43.5 | 75-38-1 (5.62, 66.4%) | site = home |
2) teams that failed to cover the game after covering MNF...by season L10 years:
pp:MNF and pp:ats margin > 0 and p:ats margin < 0 and ...
| games | ATS W - L- P (marg, %win) | Avg Line | OU W - L- P (marg, %over) | Avg Total | SU W - L- P (marg, %win) | SDQL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1-3-1 (-3.40, 25.0%) | -2.4 | 2-3-0 (-5.90, 40.0%) | 46.9 | 1-4-0 (-1.00, 20.0%) | season = 2014 |
| 5 | 2-2-1 (4.20, 50.0%) | 2.4 | 4-1-0 (3.40, 80.0%) | 44.4 | 3-2-0 (1.80, 60.0%) | season = 2013 |
| 6 | 5-1-0 (7.75, 83.3%) | -1.6 | 3-3-0 (-3.50, 50.0%) | 43.5 | 5-1-0 (9.33, 83.3%) | season = 2012 |
| 4 | 1-3-0 (-4.50, 25.0%) | -1.5 | 1-3-0 (-8.12, 25.0%) | 46.1 | 1-3-0 (-3.00, 25.0%) | season = 2011 |
| 7 | 4-3-0 (2.50, 57.1%) | -3.2 | 4-3-0 (7.64, 57.1%) | 40.6 | 4-3-0 (5.71, 57.1%) | season = 2010 |
| 8 | 2-6-0 (-7.62, 25.0%) | -4.2 | 5-3-0 (1.88, 62.5%) | 42.2 | 5-3-0 (-3.38, 62.5%) | season = 2009 |
| 7 | 4-3-0 (2.00, 57.1%) | 1.4 | 2-5-0 (-1.07, 28.6%) | 40.8 | 3-4-0 (0.57, 42.9%) | season = 2008 |
| 7 | 2-5-0 (-3.64, 28.6%) | -0.9 | 3-4-0 (-0.29, 42.9%) | 41.3 | 1-6-0 (-2.71, 14.3%) | season = 2007 |
| 8 | 2-5-1 (-3.00, 28.6%) | -4.4 | 3-5-0 (-2.06, 37.5%) | 40.4 | 5-3-0 (1.38, 62.5%) | season = 2006 |
| 7 | 5-1-1 (6.07, 83.3%) | -0.4 | 5-2-0 (9.07, 71.4%) | 40.2 | 5-2-0 (6.43, 71.4%) | season = 2005 |
| 10 | 4-6-0 (2.45, 40.0%) | 2.0 | 6-4-0 (0.40, 60.0%) | 43.4 | 3-7-0 (0.40, 30.0%) | season = 2004 |
| 9 | 6-3-0 (-0.06, 66.7%) | -2.4 | 4-5-0 (-4.83, 44.4%) | 41.4 | 6-3-0 (2.33, 66.7%) | season = 2003 |
3) teams that covered both MNF and the following week....
pp:MNF and pp:ats margin > 0 and p:ats margin > 0 and ...
| games | ATS W - L- P (marg, %win) | Avg Line | OU W - L- P (marg, %over) | Avg Total | SU W - L- P (marg, %win) | SDQL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3-0-0 (12.67, 100.0%) | 1.0 | 1-2-0 (0.83, 33.3%) | 46.2 | 3-0-0 (11.67, 100.0%) | season = 2014 |
| 10 | 2-7-1 (-4.35, 22.2%) | -1.2 | 5-5-0 (1.25, 50.0%) | 47.0 | 5-5-0 (-3.10, 50.0%) | season = 2013 |
| 9 | 4-4-1 (0.28, 50.0%) | -2.5 | 5-3-1 (-0.11, 62.5%) | 46.9 | 6-3-0 (2.78, 66.7%) | season = 2012 |
| 11 | 7-3-1 (3.77, 70.0%) | -3.3 | 7-4-0 (3.50, 63.6%) | 46.9 | 8-3-0 (7.09, 72.7%) | season = 2011 |
| 11 | 4-7-0 (-4.64, 36.4%) | -3.5 | 5-6-0 (-3.18, 45.5%) | 43.5 | 5-6-0 (-1.18, 45.5%) | season = 2010 |
| 7 | 2-5-0 (-6.07, 28.6%) | -1.1 | 4-3-0 (2.64, 57.1%) | 44.6 | 2-5-0 (-5.00, 28.6%) | season = 2009 |
| 9 | 3-6-0 (-2.17, 33.3%) | 0.9 | 5-4-0 (0.89, 55.6%) | 45.6 | 4-5-0 (-3.11, 44.4%) | season = 2008 |
| 9 | 7-2-0 (5.06, 77.8%) | -3.1 | 3-6-0 (-3.22, 33.3%) | 45.1 | 7-2-0 (8.11, 77.8%) | season = 2007 |
| 9 | 2-7-0 (-3.22, 22.2%) | -1.1 | 6-3-0 (1.72, 66.7%) | 39.7 | 3-6-0 (-2.11, 33.3%) | season = 2006 |
| 10 | 3-7-0 (-1.25, 30.0%) | -3.0 | 7-3-0 (4.65, 70.0%) | 41.0 | 5-5-0 (1.80, 50.0%) | season = 2005 |
| 6 | 4-2-0 (5.00, 66.7%) | -6.5 | 2-4-0 (-1.17, 33.3%) | 45.7 | 6-0-0 (11.50, 100.0%) | season = 2004 |
| 7 | 4-3-0 (4.43, 57.1%) | -5.0 | 6-1-0 (11.50, 85.7%) | 42.2 | 6-1-0 (9.43, 85.7%) | season = 2003 |
lol, I'm trying to understand this data. My hunch is that teams that cover the spread on MNF usually fail to cover the spread the following week. It would make sense that playing on Monday night and then going on the road the following week would really impact the week of preparation for the following game. Plus an impressive showing on Monday night would inflate the public perception of that team going into the next week.
Based on watching the Eagles last night, they dominated the game with the help of special teams and turnovers. I can't see that happening again next Sunday versus the Packers and Rodgers. This is Rodgers versus Sanchez, not Newton versus Sanchez this week. I think this sets up nicely for the Packers and an early -4.5 line. I've always had a rule not to bet on a team the week after they cover on MNF.
I'm not much of a handicapper, I'm more of a follower of other good cappers but this seems like an opportunity to play on a good team at home and against a MNF cover the previous week.
