Alright guys. Instead of picking a few fights, I'm just going to pick all of them. I'm an action junkie - sue me. I play units 1-3. 1x is an action bet and will be reserved for good plus odds and fights I'm not confident about. 3 units are best bets. I probably won't ever do full write-ups, but generally have a note or two which will give an idea of my reasoning.
Bellator
Jacoby over Mo Lawal 1x +420
Mo tends to let his ego take over and want to strike with better strikers. Jacoby is a better kick boxer than Mo, but let's see Mo try to prove that incorrect.
Lashley/Burns U1.5 RDS 2x -170
this is a squash match for Lashley. Scott Coker wants a pro wrestling feel in his orgs, and he starts it here. Otoh, if Bobby doesn't destroy Burns in the first round, he will literally fall apart on his stool. One of the worst gas tanks in mma.
Not Kongo inside distance over Johnson 2x -104
big Johnson by ko or Kongo by grind is much more likely than Kongo by finish. By a long shot, IMO.
Pat Curran over Patricio Pitbull 3x +105
Pat may be the best fighter in the world not in the ufc (Alvarez is there now, maybe askren?) I could watch he, Pitbull, and Strauss fight round robins for the next ten years. Pat has a good 4" on Pitbull and is great and using reach. Pitbull needs to get inside the reach and work hooks to the body, but I see Pat having superior footwork and keeps him at bay. If you're new to mma and want to watch one fight tonight, catch this one.
UFC
Skelly inside distance over Soriano 2x +132
this would be a 3x had skelly not fought 13 days ago. Skelly is very good and a prospect to keep an eye on. Soriano is a good fighter, but this is a bit above his pay grade.
Beal inside distance 1x +164
basically the same thing I just said, but skelly win likely win with sub - probably RNC - while Beal will win with a KO/TKO.
Natal/Camozzi goes distance -185 2x
both of these guys are probably fighting for their jobs at this point. Camozzi is crafty enough not to get subbed here and Natal will look to grind and not match Chris strike for strike. Chris isn't known for his ko power.
iaquinta by decision -115 1x
Look for Iaquinta to carefully outstrike and/or GNP Damm to an easy victory. I'm more concerned about Damm catching Iaquinta getting cute on the ground than Iaquinta finishing but I think Al has learned from his past fights.
Scoggins/Moraga decision -150 2x
Probably fight of the night on the UFC card. Neither of these guys get finished very often, and both are pretty evenly matched. Moraga slight advantage on the ground/strength. Scoggins slight advantage on the feet/speed. Great fight.
Oliveira over Lentz -158 2x.
these two have fought before. Oliveira was beating Lentz pretty easily and was about to finish. Lentz was down on one knee and Oliveira kneed him in the dome. It was called a win for him in the cage but overturned by the commish. Bad match-up for Lentz. Better MT by Charles by a wife margin, and Oliveira has one of the greatest guards in mma. It would be a 3x if there weren't concerns on Oliveira's health.
Chiesa over Lauzon -140 2x
i like Lauzon, just think the new breed of fighter has passed him skill-wise. Chiesa has still only lost one fight, a fight he was winning against a very underrated Masvidal until he was caught in an arm bar. That's Lauzon's only chance, I think.
Lewis inside distance over Mitrione -116 3x
mitrione gets hit a lot and Lewis hits hard. This is the case of a veteran being used for the newb's spotlight. Derricks last five fights - 5 KOs for Lewis. KO'd Rosholt after being laid and beat on for 2.5 rounds by one of the best wrestlers in the division. This is my favorite bet of the night...so it'll probably lose.
Not Reem inside distance +162 1x
what Reem will we see here. The top control Reem who wants an easy decision win? The Reem who gasses out in 2 minutes and gets KOd? Ever since Reem has been testing clean, he just hasn't been the uber-Reem we fell in love with.
Mousasi/Jacare won't go distance -105 3x
Both guys fighting for a title shot and want a spectacular finish to pass over the Rockhold/Bisping/Machida/Kennedy's of the world. The fight goes 1 of 2 ways. Jacare imposes his will early and often and Gegard is eventually TKO'd or subbed. Or, Gegard controls distance, wins a few rounds, and Jacare gets desperate to finish and gets caught on the chin. I just don't see it possible that, with this much on the line, either of these guys lets it go 5 rounds.
alright, that's it - good luck!
Bellator
Jacoby over Mo Lawal 1x +420
Mo tends to let his ego take over and want to strike with better strikers. Jacoby is a better kick boxer than Mo, but let's see Mo try to prove that incorrect.
Lashley/Burns U1.5 RDS 2x -170
this is a squash match for Lashley. Scott Coker wants a pro wrestling feel in his orgs, and he starts it here. Otoh, if Bobby doesn't destroy Burns in the first round, he will literally fall apart on his stool. One of the worst gas tanks in mma.
Not Kongo inside distance over Johnson 2x -104
big Johnson by ko or Kongo by grind is much more likely than Kongo by finish. By a long shot, IMO.
Pat Curran over Patricio Pitbull 3x +105
Pat may be the best fighter in the world not in the ufc (Alvarez is there now, maybe askren?) I could watch he, Pitbull, and Strauss fight round robins for the next ten years. Pat has a good 4" on Pitbull and is great and using reach. Pitbull needs to get inside the reach and work hooks to the body, but I see Pat having superior footwork and keeps him at bay. If you're new to mma and want to watch one fight tonight, catch this one.
UFC
Skelly inside distance over Soriano 2x +132
this would be a 3x had skelly not fought 13 days ago. Skelly is very good and a prospect to keep an eye on. Soriano is a good fighter, but this is a bit above his pay grade.
Beal inside distance 1x +164
basically the same thing I just said, but skelly win likely win with sub - probably RNC - while Beal will win with a KO/TKO.
Natal/Camozzi goes distance -185 2x
both of these guys are probably fighting for their jobs at this point. Camozzi is crafty enough not to get subbed here and Natal will look to grind and not match Chris strike for strike. Chris isn't known for his ko power.
iaquinta by decision -115 1x
Look for Iaquinta to carefully outstrike and/or GNP Damm to an easy victory. I'm more concerned about Damm catching Iaquinta getting cute on the ground than Iaquinta finishing but I think Al has learned from his past fights.
Scoggins/Moraga decision -150 2x
Probably fight of the night on the UFC card. Neither of these guys get finished very often, and both are pretty evenly matched. Moraga slight advantage on the ground/strength. Scoggins slight advantage on the feet/speed. Great fight.
Oliveira over Lentz -158 2x.
these two have fought before. Oliveira was beating Lentz pretty easily and was about to finish. Lentz was down on one knee and Oliveira kneed him in the dome. It was called a win for him in the cage but overturned by the commish. Bad match-up for Lentz. Better MT by Charles by a wife margin, and Oliveira has one of the greatest guards in mma. It would be a 3x if there weren't concerns on Oliveira's health.
Chiesa over Lauzon -140 2x
i like Lauzon, just think the new breed of fighter has passed him skill-wise. Chiesa has still only lost one fight, a fight he was winning against a very underrated Masvidal until he was caught in an arm bar. That's Lauzon's only chance, I think.
Lewis inside distance over Mitrione -116 3x
mitrione gets hit a lot and Lewis hits hard. This is the case of a veteran being used for the newb's spotlight. Derricks last five fights - 5 KOs for Lewis. KO'd Rosholt after being laid and beat on for 2.5 rounds by one of the best wrestlers in the division. This is my favorite bet of the night...so it'll probably lose.
Not Reem inside distance +162 1x
what Reem will we see here. The top control Reem who wants an easy decision win? The Reem who gasses out in 2 minutes and gets KOd? Ever since Reem has been testing clean, he just hasn't been the uber-Reem we fell in love with.
Mousasi/Jacare won't go distance -105 3x
Both guys fighting for a title shot and want a spectacular finish to pass over the Rockhold/Bisping/Machida/Kennedy's of the world. The fight goes 1 of 2 ways. Jacare imposes his will early and often and Gegard is eventually TKO'd or subbed. Or, Gegard controls distance, wins a few rounds, and Jacare gets desperate to finish and gets caught on the chin. I just don't see it possible that, with this much on the line, either of these guys lets it go 5 rounds.
alright, that's it - good luck!
