MMA Wagers 2009

[terpkeg]

2008 56-35 +22.3u
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I finished 2008 in a semi slump with the split at UFC 92 and the loss on Alvarez. Plus my Hansen/JZ scalp got cancelled. However, nothing disastrous and since I started the year with a 6u loss on my first posted play I will take +22.3.
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On to 2009

WVR 1/4

Lawal over Naito 3u/1u - Currently -290 available at Bodog. Naito is on quite a tear of late. However, he hasnt seen anyone with the athleticism of Lawal. The guy is a freak. Naito has been fighting primarily at 185. This is actually a step down from Lawal debut, a 1st round tko of Travis Wuiff. Expect firtst round ground and pound.

Also pending......
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UFC 93 1/17
Marcus Davis over Chris Lytle 5u/ 4.3u – Just think <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Davis</st1lace></st1:City> is a step up from Lytle in all aspects of his game. Don’t see why this is almost a pick. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Davis</st1lace></st1:City> wins this fight 80% plus to me. Was expecting to see -250/-300. Both have boxed professionally and <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Davis</st1lace></st1:City> was better going 18-1. It appears that his BJJ is better, he uses it much more, winning several fights in the UFC on the ground. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Davis</st1lace></st1:City> trains with a better camp, I don’t even know if Lytle has gone full time yet, don’t think so. I don’t use MMA math much, but <st1:City w:st="on">Davis</st1:City> finished <st1:City w:st="on">Taylor</st1:City> in the first (he did get rocked at one point, which he says is the only time in his career he has been dropped), and I thought Lytle lost to <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Taylor</st1lace></st1:City>. <st1:City w:st="on">Davis</st1:City> destroyed Paul Kelly, who completely dominated <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Taylor</st1lace></st1:City> earlier this year. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Davis</st1lace></st1:City> was close to breaking into the upper echelon before his fight withSwick, whoich went the distance and was basically a pickem with the books. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Davis</st1lace></st1:City> also says he was hurt for fight. Doesn’t add up, Davis/Swick pickem, Davis/Lytle pickem as well??????? Lytle always wants a stand up bettle and <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Davis</st1lace></st1:City> has superior standup. More versitle, I expect buy back opportunity here as well.

Alan Belcher over Dennis Kang .5u/1.5u (+300 poated)– Honestly, this was just a flier because +300 seemed too high. Havnt seen enough of Kang, but I know he struggled last year or two. Belcher stand up is always impressive and evolving and lokking for a possible prefight scalp here.

UFC 94
BJ Penn over GSP 2u/3.5u (posted at +175) Just really think this is a pick em fight. Penn has never had an issue moving up in weight. Has done up to fight Hughes in his prime, Renzo Gracie Rodrigo Gracie (I think, can remember the other Gracie), <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Machida</st1lace></st1:City> for crying out loud. The dude would fight heavyweight. I have recently heard Freddie Roach say that BJ jas the best boxing in MMA. He Bjj is spoken for, he is called the Prodigy for a reason. GSP is at the top of his game, and this should be explosive. Penn should come in with a full take, will it be enough if this fight goes into the deep water of the 4<SUP>th</SUP> and 5<SUP>th</SUP>? I don’t know, but ill take this big number any day of the week. I think there is value in BJ all the way down to +110.

 

[terpkeg]

Making Lawal 4u/1.4u - really like this one. This may not have anything to do with the fight, but the fact that Lawal fight comes after Bigfoot and Herman shows me that the organizers feel Lawal is going to be a big drawing power.

 

[core42]

I was pretty shocked too about Davis/Lytle but the way things have gone for me lately, I didn't jump on it right away but I did get it at -135. Minus the Swick fight Davis has really looked good in his most recent fights

 

[terpkeg]

Palhares over Horn 2u/.6u -315 - (bookmaker) I thought the -420/-435 that opened up other places was far more accurate. Horn, frankly, just doesnt seem to have it anymore. According to reports from BTT, Palhares is one of the hardest working guys ever to come out of Brazil, so I dont see him losing focus. Whereas Horn has looked awful of late. Dominating early round loses to Lister, MArquardt and Santiago are an indication of whats to come imo. I know he is promoting his own fights out in Utah which has gotta be spreading his energy thin. The Horn of the last two years looks like he is in it for a paycheck and i think this line is too low. I expect Palhares to hurt Horn early and finish with TKO or RNC.

 

[sleung]

as a person that comes from Kangs camp he will destroy

he has been training with GSP for 2 month straight

wasting your money betting on Belcher who may be top 30 middlewieght at best

Kang is top 15

 

[dps831]

it's also kang's ufc debut, and if he follows the trend he will have a lackluster debut. That being said, Kang should win, but with almost 3-1 odds, im going for Belcher

 

[terpkeg]

Adding Schafer over Mendes 2u/1.5u (-135 bodog) - I think Schafer will win this one by submission late first or second. Really depends on how much Mendes has developed his ground game. Mendes is training with ATT now, but I believe he is relatively new there and it is hard to see fireworks over night. His win over "baby fedor" in early 08 was by cut and he was dominated in the fight. He was takin down at will and Sidelnikov advanced positions farely easiliy. Mendes caught Silva with the high kick, but i think Silva is overrated and Schafer has a good chin. He survivied the early Houston Alexander onslaught, taking some bombs on the chin, and he was walking right through Bisping securring takedowns with ease. Barring a drastic imprivmenet on the ground by Mendes, or a early ko. Schafer will get his takedowns and secure a sub. His bjj is top notch.

 

[terpkeg]

Adding Franlin over Henderon by Dec 1u/3.1u (+315 5dimes) - I think there is great value here. I got Franklin as a small favorite, but we all know how hard it will be to finish Henderson. If Franklin wins this fight 55% of time i think 40% are by decision. Basically, I have to question if Hendersen isnt on the decline. His gas tank didnt look good against Palhares or Silva, he admited that he didnt have the tank in the 2nd rd v. Silva. Gas never seems to be an issue with Franklin. He is younger, has taken far less damage. He will win the 3rd round. Just needs to take 1 of first 2. I think he has better striking, footwork, leg kicks and bjj. Hedersen will win this fight if he catches him with a bomb standing or when he is in guard and Franklins head is pressed on the ground. He will try to pin Franklin against cage where him donw and take him down, but I think Franklin will be too elusive on the feet to get cught up in a maul n brawl.

In all
Davis over Lytle 5u/4.3u - could have scalped back some of the -115 at a better price which i originally planned on doing. But i just think Davis is far superior in all aspects of the game and i will just roll with it. One of my larger plays ever.
Schafer over Mendes 2u/1.6u
Palhares over Horn 2u/.6u
Franklin over Hendo by Dec 1u/3.1u
Belcher over Kang .5u/1.5u - still get Kang at -245 at 5dimes, but i will forgo the small Bonus Play and take my chances that Kang gets caught, do not recommend playing Belcher at the current number.

 

[terpkeg]

2008 56-35 +22.3u

4-1 +7u on the night.

5-1 +8.4 ytd

Clearly was wrong on my assesment of Davis/Lytle. However, ive been right and lost before so I will take the big payday. Just really thought Davis would not be afraid to go to the ground and use his bjj. Got the knock down in the 1st and 2nd and didnt follow up. Lytle seemed to be the stronger of the two which suprised me as well and i really wanted to see Davis hang in the pocket more and use the knees straight rights to combat Lytle wild looping shots. Lastly, was just waiting for a head kick as Lylte was dropping the hands to protect the ribs. I saw it 29-28 Davis.

 

[core42]

Good start to the year terp

 

[terpkeg]

Good start to the year terp

thanks bud. see you are off on the right foot as well. keep it up, we got alot of mma coming up. i love it.
:toast:

 

[custom2006]

as a person that comes from Kangs camp he will destroy

he has been training with GSP for 2 month straight

wasting your money betting on Belcher who may be top 30 middlewieght at best

Kang is top 15

Your avitar does resemble CB :lol:

Your statement about Kang vs. Belcher :missingte

 

[terpkeg]

Affliction 2

Sidelnikov over Buentello 1u/1.7u - I'll take the +175 now. I was hoping the books would put out a weak line here and leave a +300-+400, but no go. Anyway, im still gonna take for 1u. Sidelnikov trains with the Red Devil Team and has been nicknamed "Baby Fedor." He has shown excellent striking and footwork early in his career. In his last loss he was susecptible to the takedown, however, that shouldnt be an issue with Buentello. I expect this to be a stand-up fight. In Sidelnikov's other loss, he was dominating Mendes (same guy who lost to Schafer the other day), but was stopped on a cut, which didnt look to bad to me. Buentello has not looked good his last few times out imo. I think Sidelnikov will be able to use superior movement to get the better of the striking. Couple question marks surround him though: First fight in states and he is only 20 years old, i beleive, he has great potential, but can he go into deep water with a seasoned vet. Plus Buentello will have a size advantage. NOnetheless, i like the +175 for 1u.

 

[terpkeg]

Belfort over Lindland 1u/1.6u - Been watching this line for a while, missed the +200 t bodog, now I think +155 at 5dimes is the best im gonna get. This is more a play against Lindland. Watching him last time out i basically said i am fading him in his next fight no matter what. You have to wonder if Lindland's run in pollicitcs just put him too far off track in the fight game. He is in his late thirties and, although Belfort is no kid anymore, Lindland just looks so worn out. Belfort has had trouble with wrestlers throughout his career, but unless Lindland can blanket him for 3 rounds i think he will get ko'd. If Lindland gets into the same exchanges he did against Cacao we should have a winner.

 

[TheBrainiac]

Took Lil Nog as + 120 dog over Matyushenko , some mad odds IMO .

 

[terpkeg]

Took Lil Nog as + 120 dog over Matyushenko , some mad odds IMO .

Looks like Lil Nog is leveling out as the favorite now. I could of took +160 when i put the other two plays in last night and layed off which was prob a mistake. Thing is, i was expecting Vlad to be a dog and was thinking about putting a play on him. Then i was suprised he opened as a fav and when he immedietly got blasted up to -200 i figured sharp money was coming in and it scared me off a play the other way at +160.

Luazon over Horodecki 1.5u/2.8u (+190 bookmaker) - Joe Luazon says his little brother is a bigger and faster version of him. He made his debut in the ufc at 18 and was ko'd by Spencer Fisher but he actually suprised me and had the first in the bag before the late ko. Horodecki is also a youngster, both are 20 years old i believe, and has the better resume racking up some nice wins in the ifl. But Luazon is the more well rounded fighter imo. Like his brother, he has been training bbj for years and has a quality ground game. Although the majority of his wins have come by ko, he admits Horodecki is stronger on the feet. However, i think his standup is advanced is good enough with a nice reach advantage that he will survive on the feet and eventually take this fight to the mat from the clinch. Horedecki's last time out he looked like a fish out of water on the mat. He repeatedly pulled himself out of the ring from his back in his ifl fights. Although that may be an intelligent stategy, it goes to show how uncomfortable his is on the ground. Horodecki could very well hurt Lauzon on the feet and finish him, but i think he should only be a slight fav, if not a coin flip.

 

[core42]

Looks like Lil Nog is leveling out as the favorite now. I could of took +160 when i put the other two plays in last night and layed off which was prob a mistake. Thing is, i was expecting Vlad to be a dog and was thinking about putting a play on him. Then i was suprised he opened as a fav and when he immedietly got blasted up to -200 i figured sharp money was coming in and it scared me off a play the other way at +160.

Luazon over Horodecki 1.5u/2.8u (+190 bookmaker) - Joe Luazon says his little brother is a bigger and faster version of him. He made his debut in the ufc at 18 and was ko'd by Spencer Fisher but he actually suprised me and had the first in the bag before the late ko. Horodecki is also a youngster, both are 20 years old i believe, and has the better resume racking up some nice wins in the ifl. But Luazon is the more well rounded fighter imo. Like his brother, he has been training bbj for years and has a quality ground game. Although the majority of his wins have come by ko, he admits Horodecki is stronger on the feet. However, i think his standup is advanced is good enough with a nice reach advantage that he will survive on the feet and eventually take this fight to the mat from the clinch. Horedecki's last time out he looked like a fish out of water on the mat. He repeatedly pulled himself out of the ring from his back in his ifl fights. Although that may be an intelligent stategy, it goes to show how uncomfortable his is on the ground. Horodecki could very well hurt Lauzon on the feet and finish him, but i think he should only be a slight fav, if not a coin flip.

Fight is off, Horodecki wasn't cleared by the CSAC.

I'm still considering a play on Vladdy, I'm not a big fan of lil nog but I haven't pulled the trigger yet

 

[terpkeg]

WEC 38

Miura over Garcia 2u/.7u (-270 bookmaker) Miura seems to be getting a lack of respect against a relative new comer., Miura has looked good in the WEC imo. His fight with Condit was a war. He has a good judo base, good stand up and has worked his bjj with Drysdale who is top notch. Havnt seen a ton of Garcia, just his first fight where his opponet was clearly outmatched, but he just started training full time, and has only been training stand up and bjj for 2 years. Thought the line would be -400. The only reason not going 3u is the fact that Garcia was a state wrestling champ in hs but most of his wins come by ko. He must be a great athlete. Just dont think that is enough against the more versitile and experienced fighter.

Rest of lines seem pretty sharp at first glance. Didnt get to break down whole card but a lean on Cerrone at +135.

 

[terpkeg]

Fight is off, Horodecki wasn't cleared by the CSAC.

I'm still considering a play on Vladdy, I'm not a big fan of lil nog but I haven't pulled the trigger yet

Really disappointed here. Thought i had great value on Lauzon and thought fight would be real exciting

 

[Nick.Papagiorgio]

Belfort over Lindland 1u/1.6u - Been watching this line for a while, missed the +200 t bodog, now I think +155 at 5dimes is the best im gonna get. This is more a play against Lindland. Watching him last time out i basically said i am fading him in his next fight no matter what. You have to wonder if Lindland's run in pollicitcs just put him too far off track in the fight game. He is in his late thirties and, although Belfort is no kid anymore, Lindland just looks so worn out. Belfort has had trouble with wrestlers throughout his career, but unless Lindland can blanket him for 3 rounds i think he will get ko'd. If Lindland gets into the same exchanges he did against Cacao we should have a winner.

agree 100%

wish I would have jumped on the line earlier and not wait as long as I did. down to +135 at bodog