Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -106
Comment:
Pros:
The Blue Jays have quickly become a public darling. Public darlings go hand and hand with overvalued teams. Today is no exception.
Don’t let Beckett’s last two starts fool you. He is still one of the best pitchers in baseball. In his first start against the Blue Jays this year, he dominated them more than any other pitcher has done against this improved Blue Jays lineup year to date. His stats in his second start against the Blue Jays might be a bit misleading, as he pitched them rather well, yet got punished dearly by throwing 3 bad pitches. Beckett is one of the pitchers that have the tendency to get progressively better each time he faces a team in a particular year, so the Blue Jays hitters do not necessarily have the edge by seeing him twice already this year. Beckett has been dominant at home so far this year, and has always made for a much better home bet than road play. He also has proven to have the upper hand against several Blue Jays hitters in tonight’s lineup. Beckett has gotten roughed up in his last two starts, and this is a good opportunity for a bounce back start. Beckett also has the ability to work on a high pitch count, allowing him to be able to avoid the Red Sox suspect long relief. Although the Blue Jays lineup has been on a tear so far this year, most of the damage they have caused has been against southpaws. They are just a slightly above average lineup against right handed so far this season.
In Halladay’s last start, he went into New York and dominated the most potent lineup in baseball. The start before that, he dominated this same Red Sox team. With that said, he has historically struggled against this Red Sox lineup, and he has not pitched terribly well in Fenway either. Halladay, like Beckett is a much more effective pitcher when pitching at home. He also faces a lineup that has seen him numerous times, and the Red Sox lineup has a lot of veterans that are capable of taking advantage of the experience they gathered on a particular pitcher. Nixon and Ortiz have both had past success against Hallday, while the lineup as a whole is hitting the ball much better than they were earlier in the season.
The Red Sox are also the more rested and less traveled team tonight. This is the third road series in a row for the Blue Jays. They also had to play a long game yesterday where they used up a lot of bullpen pitchers. On the other hand, the Red Sox and their bullpen got a much needed day off yesterday, and haven’t traveled since Sunday.
Cons:
Halladay is pitching much better than Beckett as of late. He seems to have much better control of his pitches than in years past, and is showing that his best years are still to come. He is also coming off two starts in which he didn’t throw a lot of pitches. This should allow him to go deep into this game if pitching well, and avoid the fatigued Blue Jays bullpen. Beckett has not looked good in his last two starts. He is consistently missing the strike zone and leaving a lot of pitches up that are prone to home runs. This is the last thing you want when pitching in a notorious hitter’s park against a power lineup like the one the Blue Jays have. A lot of money has been put on the Red Sox since the line came out, and they were a much more attractive bet as a home dog last night.
Conclusion:
The Red Sox have been the hardest team to beat at home over the last couple of years. Due to this, they are rarely a bargain at Fenway. This especially holds true when they send a pitcher as good as Beckett on the mound. Although Halladay is a top tier pitcher, he is still pitching over his head right now. This is a good spot for him to come back to earth, while it’s also a good spot for Beckett to bounce back from his poor outing last week. I will take the Red Sox at this small price today.<!-- / message -->
Play: Red Sox -106
Comment:
Pros:
The Blue Jays have quickly become a public darling. Public darlings go hand and hand with overvalued teams. Today is no exception.
Don’t let Beckett’s last two starts fool you. He is still one of the best pitchers in baseball. In his first start against the Blue Jays this year, he dominated them more than any other pitcher has done against this improved Blue Jays lineup year to date. His stats in his second start against the Blue Jays might be a bit misleading, as he pitched them rather well, yet got punished dearly by throwing 3 bad pitches. Beckett is one of the pitchers that have the tendency to get progressively better each time he faces a team in a particular year, so the Blue Jays hitters do not necessarily have the edge by seeing him twice already this year. Beckett has been dominant at home so far this year, and has always made for a much better home bet than road play. He also has proven to have the upper hand against several Blue Jays hitters in tonight’s lineup. Beckett has gotten roughed up in his last two starts, and this is a good opportunity for a bounce back start. Beckett also has the ability to work on a high pitch count, allowing him to be able to avoid the Red Sox suspect long relief. Although the Blue Jays lineup has been on a tear so far this year, most of the damage they have caused has been against southpaws. They are just a slightly above average lineup against right handed so far this season.
In Halladay’s last start, he went into New York and dominated the most potent lineup in baseball. The start before that, he dominated this same Red Sox team. With that said, he has historically struggled against this Red Sox lineup, and he has not pitched terribly well in Fenway either. Halladay, like Beckett is a much more effective pitcher when pitching at home. He also faces a lineup that has seen him numerous times, and the Red Sox lineup has a lot of veterans that are capable of taking advantage of the experience they gathered on a particular pitcher. Nixon and Ortiz have both had past success against Hallday, while the lineup as a whole is hitting the ball much better than they were earlier in the season.
The Red Sox are also the more rested and less traveled team tonight. This is the third road series in a row for the Blue Jays. They also had to play a long game yesterday where they used up a lot of bullpen pitchers. On the other hand, the Red Sox and their bullpen got a much needed day off yesterday, and haven’t traveled since Sunday.
Cons:
Halladay is pitching much better than Beckett as of late. He seems to have much better control of his pitches than in years past, and is showing that his best years are still to come. He is also coming off two starts in which he didn’t throw a lot of pitches. This should allow him to go deep into this game if pitching well, and avoid the fatigued Blue Jays bullpen. Beckett has not looked good in his last two starts. He is consistently missing the strike zone and leaving a lot of pitches up that are prone to home runs. This is the last thing you want when pitching in a notorious hitter’s park against a power lineup like the one the Blue Jays have. A lot of money has been put on the Red Sox since the line came out, and they were a much more attractive bet as a home dog last night.
Conclusion:
The Red Sox have been the hardest team to beat at home over the last couple of years. Due to this, they are rarely a bargain at Fenway. This especially holds true when they send a pitcher as good as Beckett on the mound. Although Halladay is a top tier pitcher, he is still pitching over his head right now. This is a good spot for him to come back to earth, while it’s also a good spot for Beckett to bounce back from his poor outing last week. I will take the Red Sox at this small price today.<!-- / message -->