I might was well put the the intrinsic values of the games I have not bet up.
Reds -130 (Price target -118) Cubs +130 (price target +145)
Dodgers +102 (price target +115) Brewers -102 ( price target +112)
Astros -140 ( price target -128) Pirates +140 ( price target +160)
Mets -106 (price target +104) Cardinals +106 ( price target +121)
Twins -111 ( price target +102) Orioles +111 (price target +128)
Reds -130 (Price target -118) Cubs +130 (price target +145)
Dodgers +102 (price target +115) Brewers -102 ( price target +112)
Astros -140 ( price target -128) Pirates +140 ( price target +160)
Mets -106 (price target +104) Cardinals +106 ( price target +121)
Twins -111 ( price target +102) Orioles +111 (price target +128)
finman,
In regards to question one, I try to shy away from totals, especially early in the season. They are harder to quantify and also find value.
In regards to your second question, I made a post prior to the season starting explaining the derivation behind by picks. Here is the link.
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=470681
In regards to question one, I try to shy away from totals, especially early in the season. They are harder to quantify and also find value.
In regards to your second question, I made a post prior to the season starting explaining the derivation behind by picks. Here is the link.
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=470681
Adding one more play, as late money on the Cubs allowed the Red to hit my target price.
Cubs @ Reds
Play: Reds -115
Intrinsic Value: -130
Consider Betting Price: -118
Comment:
Prior to seasons start I was really looking forward to fading the Reds when Arroyo was on the mound. The reason was that they have an overrated lineup and Arroyo is prone to regress from last years season, which appeared to make them an anti value play. However, that is not the case in this game. The National League had problems with Arroyo and his backwards style. This holds especially true for the Cubs, who were downright dominated by him throughout the season, managing to score just four runs in nearly 36 innings against him. Arroyo pitched his best early in the season, when hitters timing was off, as his high speed velocity and backwards tendencies were maximized. The Cubs improved lineup did not live up to the hype on opening day, and they might have to wait another day. The addition of Soriano should pay dividends today, as his aggressive style was eaten alive by Arroyo last year, as he managed just one hit in 15 at bats. Arroyo’s Achilles heal is his propensity to struggle against left handers, yet the Cubs lineup is loaded from the right side. Even though he allows a lot of home runs and pitches in a hitter’s park, he was one of the best home pitchers in baseball last year.
Lilly has always been one of the worst road pitchers in baseball since entering the league. He has also been plagued throughout his career allowing the long ball, which could really be a problem pitching against a home run hitting lineup in a home run hitting park. He is also prone for a letdown start in this game. Being known to struggle mentally coupled with fighting the flu the last couple of days makes him vulnerable after the adrenaline wears off. Although backed by a solid bullpen, it is a bullpen with four pitchers who have struggled against the Reds.
Cubs @ Reds
Play: Reds -115
Intrinsic Value: -130
Consider Betting Price: -118
Comment:
Prior to seasons start I was really looking forward to fading the Reds when Arroyo was on the mound. The reason was that they have an overrated lineup and Arroyo is prone to regress from last years season, which appeared to make them an anti value play. However, that is not the case in this game. The National League had problems with Arroyo and his backwards style. This holds especially true for the Cubs, who were downright dominated by him throughout the season, managing to score just four runs in nearly 36 innings against him. Arroyo pitched his best early in the season, when hitters timing was off, as his high speed velocity and backwards tendencies were maximized. The Cubs improved lineup did not live up to the hype on opening day, and they might have to wait another day. The addition of Soriano should pay dividends today, as his aggressive style was eaten alive by Arroyo last year, as he managed just one hit in 15 at bats. Arroyo’s Achilles heal is his propensity to struggle against left handers, yet the Cubs lineup is loaded from the right side. Even though he allows a lot of home runs and pitches in a hitter’s park, he was one of the best home pitchers in baseball last year.
Lilly has always been one of the worst road pitchers in baseball since entering the league. He has also been plagued throughout his career allowing the long ball, which could really be a problem pitching against a home run hitting lineup in a home run hitting park. He is also prone for a letdown start in this game. Being known to struggle mentally coupled with fighting the flu the last couple of days makes him vulnerable after the adrenaline wears off. Although backed by a solid bullpen, it is a bullpen with four pitchers who have struggled against the Reds.
TripleJ,
Yes, he plays his daily plays the same amount but the daily amount changes as his bankroll changes. He addresses this under the second part of post #10 on yesterday's thread.
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=474001
Buff,
Just trying to answer a question or two for you. Congrats on another great night. Only 5-3 so no major props from everyone, yet. I guess they were expecting another 8-0 day. On to tomorrow......GL buddy.
Yes, he plays his daily plays the same amount but the daily amount changes as his bankroll changes. He addresses this under the second part of post #10 on yesterday's thread.
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=474001
Buff,
Just trying to answer a question or two for you. Congrats on another great night. Only 5-3 so no major props from everyone, yet. I guess they were expecting another 8-0 day. On to tomorrow......GL buddy.
