I may add plays later.
Angels @ A’s
Play: Angels +110
Intrinsic Value: -110
Consider Betting Price: +104
Comment:
There is no denying that Guerrero’s absence will hurt the Angels in this particular match up. In fact, it has a 7 cent change in my intrinsic value, which is probably the biggest intrinsic value change due to injury this season. However, I feel that I am being more than compensate (like most big name injuries) with the change in the market price. Haren is one of the underrated and consistent pitchers in baseball. He is also off to a solid start. However, the lack of run support that A’s dormant lineup has been giving their starting pitchers really diminishes the assets they bring to the table. Haren also struggled last year against the Angels, allowing 18 runs in just over 30 innings of work. Guerrero is not the only hitter on the Angels that has had past success against him, as there are three others that have hit him well in the past, while a couple other young bats that much up well against his style of pitching. Haren also struggles holding runners on, which could be a problem in this game against the Angels. Home field advantage is also minimized in this game, as neither pitcher has shown much of a preference pitching at home, while neither offense has hit much better at home the last couple of years either. The A’s have an elite bullpen, but this is one of the few series that they do not have much of an edge in the later innings thanks to their bullpen.
I really like how Lackey matches up against the A’s. He is an emotional pitcher that should thrive on redemption after getting in a fight with them last year. He has always dominated the A’s throughout his career, and has pitched even better against them since that incident. He is off to a solid start this season, which includes an excellent outing against them a couple of weeks ago, where he allowed just one run in seven innings of work. There are a few hitters in today’s lineup that have struggled against him in the past. Being backed by an elite bullpen should make it hard for the A’s to score throughout this game. Lackey was also one of the most dominant road and day game pitchers in baseball last year, two variables that should be working in his favor this game. The A’s have the worst lineup in the American League, and they have been playing like that all season. They make for a much more compelling bet later in the season when they have the tendency to turn it on.
Angels @ A’s
Play: Angels +110
Intrinsic Value: -110
Consider Betting Price: +104
Comment:
There is no denying that Guerrero’s absence will hurt the Angels in this particular match up. In fact, it has a 7 cent change in my intrinsic value, which is probably the biggest intrinsic value change due to injury this season. However, I feel that I am being more than compensate (like most big name injuries) with the change in the market price. Haren is one of the underrated and consistent pitchers in baseball. He is also off to a solid start. However, the lack of run support that A’s dormant lineup has been giving their starting pitchers really diminishes the assets they bring to the table. Haren also struggled last year against the Angels, allowing 18 runs in just over 30 innings of work. Guerrero is not the only hitter on the Angels that has had past success against him, as there are three others that have hit him well in the past, while a couple other young bats that much up well against his style of pitching. Haren also struggles holding runners on, which could be a problem in this game against the Angels. Home field advantage is also minimized in this game, as neither pitcher has shown much of a preference pitching at home, while neither offense has hit much better at home the last couple of years either. The A’s have an elite bullpen, but this is one of the few series that they do not have much of an edge in the later innings thanks to their bullpen.
I really like how Lackey matches up against the A’s. He is an emotional pitcher that should thrive on redemption after getting in a fight with them last year. He has always dominated the A’s throughout his career, and has pitched even better against them since that incident. He is off to a solid start this season, which includes an excellent outing against them a couple of weeks ago, where he allowed just one run in seven innings of work. There are a few hitters in today’s lineup that have struggled against him in the past. Being backed by an elite bullpen should make it hard for the A’s to score throughout this game. Lackey was also one of the most dominant road and day game pitchers in baseball last year, two variables that should be working in his favor this game. The A’s have the worst lineup in the American League, and they have been playing like that all season. They make for a much more compelling bet later in the season when they have the tendency to turn it on.