Padres @ Giants
Play: Padres +109
Intrinsic Value: -110
Consider Betting Price: +102
Comment:
Wrong team favored here and I am not surprised. It seems like linesmakers are putting too much stock into Peavy’s sub par season last year, as I am viewing it as more of a fluke season stemmed from the WBC and nagging injuries that prevented him from getting into any kind of rhythm. He is far too talented to not bounce back and put forth a dominating year, and if Spring was any indication, it looks like my prediction is right on par. Tuesday is a good spot for Peavy to open the season strong, as he faces a team that he has had past success against. The Giants lineup did not get any better in the off season, only older. Adding Aurillia to protect Bonds is a waste, and his bat using up the first base spot is as well. He, like Feliz and Durham, are Giants infielders that have really struggled against Peavy in the past. If Bonds wants to start the regular season where he left off during Spring, he will have to do it against a pitcher that he has a lifetime average of .250. Although the value of aces is diminished by the smaller early season pitch count, that is not the case for the Padres, as Peavy is backed by the deepest and best bullpen in the National League, which should make it hard for the Giants to score throughout this game.
Zito and his overpaid salary make their debut. Although he is one of the more mentally strong pitchers in the league, the added pressure he is under on opening day (new team and big salary) may potentially be a hindrance. Zito’s “stuff” and Whip is far from your typical ace, and his reliance on taking advantage of a lack of patience of opposing batters may be a problem against this Padres lineup. Zito has actually struggled in his career against the left handed hitters he has faced, which could be a problem when facing a lineup who has four hitters from the left side, especially in a somewhat hitter friendly park for left handed pull hitters. Zito is a workhorse, but his pitch count will be monitored closely. This does not bode well for the Giants, as they are protecting him with one of the worst bullpens in baseball, giving the Padres a decisive advantage in the later innings. The Padres don’t have a potent lineup, but are one of the few teams who hit better on the road. In my opinion, the Padres have a slightly better chance of winning this game, so getting basis points in compensation for betting them is generous.
Play: Padres +109
Intrinsic Value: -110
Consider Betting Price: +102
Comment:
Wrong team favored here and I am not surprised. It seems like linesmakers are putting too much stock into Peavy’s sub par season last year, as I am viewing it as more of a fluke season stemmed from the WBC and nagging injuries that prevented him from getting into any kind of rhythm. He is far too talented to not bounce back and put forth a dominating year, and if Spring was any indication, it looks like my prediction is right on par. Tuesday is a good spot for Peavy to open the season strong, as he faces a team that he has had past success against. The Giants lineup did not get any better in the off season, only older. Adding Aurillia to protect Bonds is a waste, and his bat using up the first base spot is as well. He, like Feliz and Durham, are Giants infielders that have really struggled against Peavy in the past. If Bonds wants to start the regular season where he left off during Spring, he will have to do it against a pitcher that he has a lifetime average of .250. Although the value of aces is diminished by the smaller early season pitch count, that is not the case for the Padres, as Peavy is backed by the deepest and best bullpen in the National League, which should make it hard for the Giants to score throughout this game.
Zito and his overpaid salary make their debut. Although he is one of the more mentally strong pitchers in the league, the added pressure he is under on opening day (new team and big salary) may potentially be a hindrance. Zito’s “stuff” and Whip is far from your typical ace, and his reliance on taking advantage of a lack of patience of opposing batters may be a problem against this Padres lineup. Zito has actually struggled in his career against the left handed hitters he has faced, which could be a problem when facing a lineup who has four hitters from the left side, especially in a somewhat hitter friendly park for left handed pull hitters. Zito is a workhorse, but his pitch count will be monitored closely. This does not bode well for the Giants, as they are protecting him with one of the worst bullpens in baseball, giving the Padres a decisive advantage in the later innings. The Padres don’t have a potent lineup, but are one of the few teams who hit better on the road. In my opinion, the Padres have a slightly better chance of winning this game, so getting basis points in compensation for betting them is generous.