seanm0520:
Philadelphia Phillies
Rotation:
So, everyone knows the hype of the rotation and it's with good reason. Halladay had arguably the best season of a pitcher in the last 10-15 years (Cy Young, perfect game, playoffs no-hitter, 20 wins), Cliff Lee is a left-handed workhorse with a dazzling BB rate, Oswalt is a gamer, and Hamels may have the best stuff on the team (top 3 change-up as a lefty and his cutter is a plus pitch now). Even Blanton isn't really a concern as he goes out there and gets 7 innings an outing.
Halladay: It's hard not to imagine Halladay contending for another Cy Young. He has a sub 1.00 ERA in the Spring and already looks in midseason form. What is truly dazzling about Halladay is his ability to keep balls in the yard, even at Citizens Bank, with his constant pounding of sinkers and cutters at the knees. He keeps home runs down, walks down, but another 200 K season might be a little much to ask for. Then again, he's a top 3 pitcher in baseball so it could very well happen.
Lee: Another ace, this time from the left side, who keeps his walk rate down which is something you can't ask more of. Lee is one of the most composed figures on the mound who pounds the low part of the zone and works the corners as well as anyone. Like Halladay, he avoids injuries and is meticulous in his preparation. Lee should post around a 3.00 or 3.20 ERA which is fantastic, 17+ wins, and a ridiculous 8 or 9/1 KK/B ratio.
Oswalt: The wild-card in the rotation. After coming over from Houston Oswalt was 7-1 with a 1.74 ERA and .90 WHIP. Oswalt is a tough SOB, he took a line-drive off his neck and isn't going to miss any time, and he's still a strong pitcher. A regression can be fully expected though as the East offenses see him a little more. Another guy that keeps the ball in the park (noticing a trend?), doesn't walk many, and doesn't mind the ball in play (defense for Philly still a +), he's the best #3 in baseball. A sub 3.00 ERA is asking too much but anything over 3.40 is a disappointment. Another 15 Win SP for this club.
Hamels: I'll attempt to keep my man-love for Hamels out of this but I do believe he is slated for a huge jump this year and could be a dark horse contender for the Cy Young. While it means nothing in the scheme of things, the knock against Hamels has always been his counting numbers: his win/loss total. For his peripherals the fact that he only has 1 15 win season is mind-blowing. 2009 was obviously an anomaly and 2010 is far more indicative of what he can do. As I said earlier, Hamels will continue to incorporate his cutter to get out lefties, his fastball now averages 94-95 with movement away from righties, and his change-up gets out everyone. He does walk more batters and let up more HR's than the others but learning under these three all season? A 18 win, 200 K, 3.00 ERA season is well within reach. He spent the latter half of 2009 learning under Lee and the whole season under Moyer, and look what it did for 2010. His ceiling is unlimited.
Blanton: Not much to say about the workhorse except that's exactly what he is. 7 innings a game, a 4.00 ERA, and the Phillies are happy. I believe last year was his worse and he has looked solid this spring and shouldn't see his ERA balloon at all. What helps Blanton is the lack of pressure that will be on him (not that he had much last year) because anything the Phillies get out of him is simply a bonus.
Bullpen
This is where things get tricky. Brad Lidge will be out until the All-Star breaking leaving the 8th and 9th to Ryan Madson and Jose Contreras. Madson said before the season he sees his future role as a closer in this league but Manuel and Amaro (GM) lack the faith in Madson. He is, however, a top set-up man in baseball. Madson has one of the strongest change-ups in the league (the most identical arm slot I've seen) and a fastball he can place anywhere. Another pitcher that keeps the ball in the yard. Contreras is interesting, and frightening, because of his age. He pitched well last year, amassing a 3.34 ERA and he did convert 4 out of 5 save opportunities. But he gets lit up and Madson has to step in, Phillies could be in real trouble closing out games. Madson blew 5 save chances in each of the last two seasons filling in for Lidge and simply doesn't appear to have the closing mentality. If the problem becomes a big one, which the odds are in that favor, the Phillies could look for a bonafide top-tier closer on the market.
Ideally, our starters go 7-8 every game then hand it off to Madson and Contreras. Obviously, that's not realistic. If a starter gets bumped early, the Phillies are in trouble. Romero is a lefty specialist but definitely not a specialist. A 3.68 ERA and a 1/1 K/BB ratio is down-right frightening. Danys Baez, an owner of a 5.00+ ERA last year and also almost a 1/1 K/BB ratio, he's another arm the Phillies only hope to need to use in a mop-up role. He's a pitcher that can be waited out to get down 2-0 then he leaves fastballs hanging and gets burned. He cannot pitch himself out of a jam for the life of him.
David Herndon (RHP) and Antonio Bastardo (LHP) are the other relievers but will be turned to after the others. Both are as average or below average as the others. Nothing new here, same concerns as Romero and Baez.
Offense
Projected Line-up (keep in mind, Manuel has not committed to any order but I feel this will be the most productive):
Against RHP:
Jimmy Rollins, SS, S
Placido Polanco, 3B, R
Raul Ibanez, LF, L
Ryan Howard, 1B, L
Ben Francisco, RF, R
Shane Victorino, CF, S
Carlos Ruiz, C, R
Wilson Valdez, 2B, R
Against LHP:
Shane Victorino, CF, S
Placido Polanco, 3B, R
Jimmy Rollins, SS, S
Ryan Howard, 1B, L
Ben Francisco, RF, R
Raul Ibanez, LF, L
Carlos Ruiz, C, R
Wilson Valdez, 2B, R
I chose Valdez over Castillo despite Castillo being a bit better with the stick and on the base path because Valdez is a far superior defender. In fact, from watching games, Valdez is probably a better defender than Utley. Speaking of, this is the million dollar question and what the entire season of the Phillies hinges on: When will Utley return and what production will he provide? Right now, NO ONE knows the extent of the injury or the timetable for his return so the Phillies will have to make do. But missing his presence in the line-up directly affects the success of Rollins and Howard. Rollins is better suited as the lead-off but he has just enough borderline pop that he'll need to be in the 3-hole.
Rollins and Howard have to start hot or the Phillies are in trouble. Victorino needs to rebound in BA and OBP and stop attempting to become a power hitter. His greatest asset is his ability on the bases. Francisco has been torching it in the Spring and he'll need to bring that over into the regular season as the only legitimate RH insurance bat. He's a plus defender as well.
The biggest knock on the offense, and was there even with Utley in the line-up, is their inability to hit the breaking ball. This is a dead-eye fastball offense. Howard and Victorino love to swing and get their share of misses, same with Ibanez and Rollins. This line-up gets tied up easily but if there is a heater anywhere in the zone, it's getting CRUSHED. It's the reason the Giants were able to find so much success in the playoffs against this offense; keep them off balanced with balls in the dirt and make them chase.
It'll be interesting to see how things play out when the game starts with a RHP then switches to a LHP in a situation where they take on the middle of the lineup in order. LHP against Howard and Ibanez back-to-back: not good.
An interesting note, in terms of our success in low-scoring games, is Davey Lopes is no longer the first base coach. He was fantastic at sending Rollins and Victorino and was great at getting us into a position to score in tight ball games and in late situations. We're breaking in a new coach so it could be a real struggle, early in the season, in 1-0, 2-1, etc. type of ball games.
The defense is still a strong suit of this team as nothing has changed there which aids our pitchers that much more.