MLB systems

[rolltide]

if you're interested in systems there are a few decent ones in play today:

first you have an in-form NL pitcher walking few batters up against a terrible pitcher.

season >= 2007 and o:STDSERA >= 5.44 and o:league = NL and C and tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= 0.250 and s:SWA <= 1 and ss:SWA <= 1 ...
SU: 65-22 (1.61, 74.7%) avg line: -118.5 / 106.9 on / against: +$4,472 / -$4,801 ROI: +40.9% / -49.5% RL: 51-35 (1.26, 59.3%) avg line: -103.8 / -110.4 on / against: +$1,773 / -$2,256 ROI: +15.9% / -19.6% OU: 39-40-7 (0.02, 49.4%) avg total: 8.2 over / under: -$360 / -$290 ROI: -3.9% / -3.0% <tbody style="line-height: 21.30000114440918px;"> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 4.9 8.9 0.6 3.8 7.1 9.8 6.3 7.5 Opp 3.3 7.6 0.8 2.7 7.4 9.7 6.3 6.7 <tbody style="line-height: 21.30000114440918px;"> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Aug 07, 2014 Thu away Cubs Kyle Hendricks - R Rockies Yohan Flande - L -110 10.5 <caption style="line-height: 21.30000114440918px;"> </caption><thead style="line-height: 21.30000114440918px;"> </thead><tbody role="alert" style="line-height: 21.30000114440918px;"> </tbody>

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then you've got 2 plays on interleague small favs, light HR-hitting teams, after a big offensive night:

tA(HR) <= 0.911 and p:runs >= 8 and 100 >= line >= -150 and ...
SU: 33-10 (2.21, 76.7%) avg line: -123.6 / 113.6 on / against: +$2,064 / -$2,211 ROI: +38.8% / -50.4% RL: 26-17 (1.20, 60.5%) avg line: 135.8 / -149.8 on / against: +$1,988 / -$2,281 ROI: +40.7% / -33.4% OU: 22-21-0 (0.07, 51.2%) avg total: 8.1 over / under: -$135 / -$285 ROI: -2.8% / -6.1% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 5.2 8.7 0.5 3.6 7.0 10.1 5.3 6.4 Opp 3.0 7.7 0.6 2.7 7.7 9.7 5.0 6.8 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Aug 07, 2014 Thu home Phillies Roberto Hernandez - R Astros Collin McHugh - R -115 8.0 Aug 07, 2014 Thu home Reds Homer Bailey - R Indians TJ House - L -125 7.5 <caption> </caption><thead> </thead><tbody role="alert"> </tbody>

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[ReBorn]

Holy shit a rolltide sighting!!!! Hahaha. What's up bruh,!!!! Good to see u in here! Now I'm not gonna lie. I'm a tad bit confused on which teams I should be taking.

 

[sunshine11]

I have no idea what the plays are either.

 

[Offshores]

Looks like Cubs ML, Phillies ML, Reds ML based on lines

 

[rolltide]

the teams to the left (cubs, phils, reds) are always the ones that the records are associated it. so cubs are in a situation that is 65-22 with average win 4.9-3.3 runs per game. phils and reds are in a interleague spot that has produced a 33-10 record in last 43 games with avg win of 2.2 rpg (5.2-3.0)

 

[ReBorn]

Thank u rolltide!

 

[tripleh]

Thanks roll

 

[TyBounce]

Thanks RT.

 

[finite]

Pitching change in Philadelphia

 

[nsight]

Pitching change in Philadelphia

Hernandez traded to the Dodgers

 

[Biz]

Great job RT

 

[Steiner69eR]

Always great to see you, Roll

 

[rolltide]

Fri systems...

play on home team in first game of series when both are off blowout losses. dbacks in the sweet spot as well since they've lost 3+ straight. both queries are below: run lines are especially profitable ...

FGS and p:margin <= -4 and op:margin <= -4 and H and season > 2010 ... and pp:L and ppp:L
SU: 23-8 (2.06, 74.2%) avg line: -108.3 / -101.7 on / against: +$1,623 / -$1,778 ROI: +44.2% / -49.8% RL: 23-8 (1.92, 74.2%) avg line: 117.1 / -129.7 on / against: +$2,095 / -$2,259 ROI: +57.8% / -51.8% OU: 11-16-4 (0.02, 40.7%) avg total: 8.1 over / under: -$615 / +$425 ROI: -18.0% / +12.5% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 5.1 9.3 0.4 3.3 6.6 9.8 5.3 6.6 Opp 3.0 7.5 0.7 2.7 8.1 8.6 5.8 6.4 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Aug 08, 2014 Fri home Diamondbacks Chase Anderson - R Rockies Tyler Matzek - L -126 8.5 <tbody> </tbody>

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FGS and p:margin <= -4 and op:margin <= -4 and H and season > 2010 ...
SU: 55-28 (1.33, 66.3%) avg line: -109.5 / -100.5 on / against: +$2,580 / -$2,989 ROI: +26.5% / -32.1% RL: 54-29 (1.09, 65.1%) avg line: 119.8 / -133.1 on / against: +$3,916 / -$4,333 ROI: +39.9% / -35.7% OU: 35-41-7 (0.16, 46.1%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: -$950 / +$250 ROI: -10.4% / +2.7% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 4.8 8.6 0.5 3.1 7.0 10.2 5.3 6.4 Opp 3.4 8.1 0.7 2.7 7.6 9.6 5.0 6.7 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Aug 08, 2014 Fri home Diamondbacks Chase Anderson - R Rockies Tyler Matzek - L -126 8.5 <tbody> </tbody>

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play UNDER after a 1-run when when opposing starter went 8+ innings

p:margin = 1 and po:SIP >= 8 and p:line > -120 and p:line ....
SU: 67-84 (-0.47, 44.4%) avg line: -100.7 / -110.2 on / against: -$1,859 / +$1,083 ROI: -10.7% / +5.9% RL: 73-77 (-0.23, 48.7%) avg line: -114.7 / 101.5 on / against: -$1,685 / +$1,002 ROI: -8.3% / +5.3% OU: 46-100-5 (-0.53, 31.5%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: -$6,310 / +$4,865 ROI: -38.4% / +29.0% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 3.5 8.0 0.6 2.9 7.2 9.3 6.5 6.7 Opp 4.0 8.6 0.5 2.9 7.1 9.8 6.3 6.7 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Aug 08, 2014 Fri home Orioles Chris Tillman - R Cardinals Justin Masterson - R -135 8.5 <tbody> </tbody>

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this one is rather detailed but essentially you're playing on an AL favorite off a win against a pitcher that had a great last outing. 15-4 this year and very solid overall...not bad for a run line either

o:STDSERA > 0.00 and -145 > line >= -185 ... league = AL and os:SRA <= 1 and STDSERA < 5.20 and tS(hits) / tS(at bats) >= 0.228 ... and p:W
SU: 99-29 (2.21, 77.3%) avg line: -161.7 / 151.7 on / against: +$5,294 / -$5,584 ROI: +25.6% / -43.6% RL: 70-51 (0.57, 57.9%) avg line: 127.6 / -139.3 on / against: +$3,814 / -$4,627 ROI: +31.5% / -27.5% OU: 62-61-4 (0.82, 50.4%) avg total: 8.3 over / under: -$465 / -$830 ROI: -3.4% / -5.9% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 5.6 9.8 0.5 3.8 6.2 9.7 6.5 7.5 Opp 3.4 7.9 0.6 2.5 8.2 9.0 7.0 6.5 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Aug 08, 2014 Fri home Mariners Hisashi Iwakuma - R White Sox Jose Quintana - L -165 6.5 <tbody> </tbody>

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another one against the white sox. avoid poor hitting AL teams in a pitching duel. not the greatest ROI, +112%, but is 46-19 in 2014 including 13-2 L15. seattle in a double worth a look

0.215 <= tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= 0.265 and FC and -215 <= line <= -134 and oS:SRA <= 1 ...
SU: 279-128 (1.39, 68.6%) avg line: -158.1 / 146.2 on / against: +$7,907 / -$9,409 ROI: +12.3% / -23.1% RL: 180-193 (-0.16, 48.3%) avg line: 131.4 / -143.2 on / against: +$4,064 / -$6,279 ROI: +10.8% / -11.8% OU: 181-208-18 (0.27, 46.5%) avg total: 8.3 over / under: -$5,520 / +$850 ROI: -12.1% / +1.9% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 5.0 9.2 0.6 3.6 6.2 9.7 7.0 7.2 Opp 3.6 8.1 0.7 2.8 7.9 9.4 7.4 6.6 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Aug 08, 2014 Fri home Mariners Hisashi Iwakuma - R White Sox Jose Quintana - L -165 6.5 <tbody> </tbody>

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avoid poor-to-average hitting big AL dogs in a good pitching matchup. this is 60-13 all-time and 5-1 this year...

tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= 0.260 and league = AL and AD and o:STDSERA <= 3.50 and STDSERA <= 4.10 and line >= 175
SU: 13-60 (-3.10, 17.8%) avg line: 203.1 / -239.1 on / against: -$3,430 / +$2,980 ROI: -47.0% / +17.1% RL: 23-37 (-1.38, 38.3%) avg line: -101.9 / -108.1 on / against: -$1,602 / +$1,288 ROI: -25.1% / +19.6% OU: 36-32-5 (0.19, 52.9%) avg total: 8.4 over / under: +$145 / -$785 ROI: +1.8% / -9.6% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 2.7 7.1 0.7 2.2 8.6 10.4 6.5 6.1 Opp 5.8 9.8 0.5 3.7 4.8 9.6 6.4 6.8 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Aug 08, 2014 Fri away Twins Kyle Gibson - R Athletics Scott Kazmir - L 185 7.0 <tbody> </tbody>

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play on home dog with a starter that K's a lot of hitters. only 113% all-time but NL dogs are killing it this year at 131% ROI. gotta watch the line in this one though as it's moving toward atlanta and they must be a home dog

7.22 >= sA(SSO) > 5.0 and HD and 0.207 <= tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= 0.260 and ... STDSERA > 1.95 and season = 2014 and league = NL
SU: 24-15 (0.46, 61.5%) avg line: 114.8 / -124.8 on / against: +$1,229 / -$1,464 ROI: +31.4% / -30.0% RL: 27-12 (1.96, 69.2%) avg line: -152.8 / 140.7 on / against: +$883 / -$1,026 ROI: +14.9% / -26.3% OU: 18-19-2 (0.10, 48.6%) avg total: 7.3 over / under: -$205 / -$105 ROI: -4.9% / -2.4% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 3.9 8.5 0.3 2.5 8.0 9.4 4.4 6.4 Opp 3.5 8.1 0.4 2.8 8.4 8.2 4.5 6.5 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Aug 08, 2014 Fri home Braves Ervin Santana - R Nationals Stephen Strasburg - R 100 6.5 <tbody> </tbody>

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will hit "post reply" now and see how crazy this looks on the thread

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[ReBorn]

Now I know u said it's the teams to the left but in this instance u take Oakland vs twins correct?

 

[TyBounce]

Thanks Roll.

 

[rolltide]

Now I know u said it's the teams to the left but in this instance u take Oakland vs twins correct?

yes. that record, 13-60, is attributed to the team on the left (MIN). i guess i could run it the opposite way....give me a minute... could go with RL on SEA or SEA/OAK double +135 on that one ... let me reverse the numbers and post it to keep consistent

 

[rolltide]

because of the line consideration i'd have to back into it to switch the dog 175 to the fav version but this is close enough (actually adds 7 wins to the fav)

otS(hits) / otS(at bats) <= 0.260 and league = AL and HF and o:STDSERA <= 4.10 and STDSERA <= 3.50 and line < -200
SU: 67-13 (3.10, 83.8%) avg line: -236.8 / 200.8 on / against: +$3,675 / -$4,125 ROI: +19.4% / -51.6% RL: 36-28 (1.34, 56.2%) avg line: -107.9 / -102.4 on / against: +$640 / -$986 ROI: +9.2% / -14.5% OU: 34-39-7 (-0.22, 46.6%) avg total: 8.4 over / under: -$820 / +$150 ROI: -9.4% / +1.7% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 5.7 9.7 0.5 3.9 5.0 9.6 6.8 7.1 Opp 2.6 6.9 0.7 2.0 8.3 10.1 6.8 5.7 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Aug 08, 2014 Fri home Athletics Scott Kazmir - L Twins Kyle Gibson - R -225 7.0 <tbody> </tbody>

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using the new parameters that system is 7-1 this year...wins by 3.2 rpg

otS(hits) / otS(at bats) <= 0.260 and league = AL and HF and o:STDSERA <= 4.10 and STDSERA <= 3.50 and line < -200 and season = 2014
SU: 7-1 (3.12, 87.5%) avg line: -223.3 / 191.1 on / against: +$450 / -$490 ROI: +25.2% / -61.2% RL: 5-3 (1.62, 62.5%) avg line: -101.7 / -106.8 on / against: +$208 / -$251 ROI: +25.1% / -28.9% OU: 4-3-1 (0.19, 57.1%) avg total: 7.4 over / under: +$95 / -$145 ROI: +11.2% / -16.0% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 5.4 9.1 1.0 4.5 6.4 10.6 5.0 7.6 Opp 2.2 6.8 0.5 2.4 8.9 10.5 3.9 6.6 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Aug 08, 2014 Fri home Athletics Scott Kazmir - L Twins Kyle Gibson - R -225 7.0 Aug 04, 2014 box Mon home Indians Corey Kluber - R Reds Alfredo Simon - R 7-1 6 W 1.0 O 10-8 1-0 6-0 -205 7.0 9 Jul 06, 2014 box Sun home Angels Garrett Richards - R Astros Collin McHugh - R 6-1 5 W -1.0 U 8-7 0-2 5-0 -220 8.0 9 May 10, 2014 box Sat home Tigers Max Scherzer - R Twins Kyle Gibson - R 9-3 6 W 4.0 O 11-8 1-2 6-0 -260 8.0 9 Apr 21, 2014 box Mon home Mariners Felix Hernandez - R Astros Dallas Keuchel - L 2-7 -5 L 2.5 O 7-9 2-0 0-5 -250 6.5 9 Apr 19, 2014 box Sat home Athletics Scott Kazmir - L Astros Brett Oberholtzer - L 4-3 1 W 0.0 P 14-7 2-0 1-2 -210 7.0 9 Apr 18, 2014 box Fri home Athletics Sonny Gray - R Astros Jarred Cosart - R 11-3 8 W 7.0 O 10-10 2-0 8-0 -210 7.0 9 Apr 16, 2014 box Wed home Yankees Masahiro Tanaka - R Cubs Jason Hammel - R 3-0 3 W -5.0 U 5-3 0-0 3-0 -205 8.0 9 Apr 11, 2014 box Fri home Rangers Yu Darvish - R Astros Scott Feldman - R 1-0 1 W -7.0 U 8-2 0-0 1-0 -225 8.0 10 <caption> </caption><thead> </thead><tbody role="alert"> </tbody>

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[rolltide]

it's also 12-1 when you combine the two leagues:

otS(hits) / otS(at bats) <= 0.260 and HF and o:STDSERA <= 4.10 and STDSERA <= 3.50 and line < -200 and season = 2014
SU: 12-1 (2.46, 92.3%) avg line: -224.3 / 192.1 on / against: +$950 / -$990 ROI: +32.6% / -76.2% RL: 6-7 (0.96, 46.2%) avg line: 100.6 / -109.4 on / against: -$105 / +$44 ROI: -7.8% / +3.0% OU: 5-5-3 (-0.31, 50.0%) avg total: 7.1 over / under: -$30 / -$60 ROI: -2.2% / -4.1% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 4.6 9.0 0.6 4.3 7.6 10.3 4.6 8.1 Opp 2.2 7.8 0.7 2.4 9.5 10.2 4.2 7.2 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Aug 08, 2014 Fri home Athletics Scott Kazmir - L Twins Kyle Gibson - R -225 7.0 <tbody> </tbody>

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ok, back to work...well, one more. record since 2009...AL now 34-4, NL not as successful

otS(hits) / otS(at bats) <= 0.260 and HF and o:STDSERA <= 4.10 and STDSERA <= 3.50 and line < -200 and season >= 2009 and season != 2013 and ...

games	SU W - L(marg,%win)	Avg Line	o:Avg Line	$ On	$ Against	On Invested	Against Invested	RL	Avg Run Line	o:Avg Run Line	$ RL On	$ RL Against	RL On Invested	RL Against Invested	OU W - L- P(marg,%over)	Avg Total	$ Over	$ Under	Over Invested	Under Invested	SDQL
38	34-4 (3.37, 89.5%)	-235.6	199.7	+$2,465	-$2,615	8965.0	3800.0	24-13 (1.91, 64.9%)	-108.1	-100.8	+$1,050	-$1,209	4060.0	3905.0	17-17-4 (0.13, 50.0%)	8.3	-$160	-$160	4185.0	4165.0	league = AL
56	39-17 (1.73, 69.6%)	-232.0	197.7	-$105	-$505	12990.0	5600.0	27-28 (0.28, 49.1%)	100.3	-109.7	-$147	-$87	5774.0	6136.0	33-20-3 (1.12, 62.3%)	7.4	+$1,070	-$1,555	6250.0	6070.0	league = NL

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Showing 1 to 2 of 2 entries

 

[XSPower]

Thanks and good luck tonight!!!!

 

[ReBorn]

One more question I'm so sorry man. In the Orioles game u are saying take the under?