Well, I found a system using Accuscore that is working pretty well for NBA by isolating certain percentages, so I thought I'd try MLB. Keep in mind, I've never used it for MLB and I don't have any past results to to pinpoint certain percentages. This will be an experiment. FYI, Accuscore states that they have been in the negative for April and May for each year they have done MLB. The MLB is not just a straight % like NBA, so it will be more difficult to figure out how to maximize returns. This will be a nice way to things as we will all be able to figure it out together and see what the best way is to maximize profits. See you guys in April!!
Well, I suppose that purely depends on how you look at it. I suppose (looking at the free Accuscore Plus-preview Villanova - Pittsburgh game and supposing mlb will be similar) you basically will get the percentage of Team A winning against Team B. Aside of that you've got the odds you get from bookmakers (can either take the avg of them or always take 1 bookmaker and consistently stick with that one) and then it's just a matter of comparing.
Example:
Question:
Suppose Team A has (according to Accuscore) a chance of 63.0% to win
The odds you can get from bookies is -145.
Should you bet Team A?
Answer: For 64% the most accurate line would be -170 (63/0.37 = 170.27 = 170.3 = 170), the line we get it -145. Comparing the lines gets a difference of 1.1724. This number can be used to compare what the strongest plays are as it is the expected advantage over the given lines. Put into other words, if we played endless games with exactly that strength (1.1724) we would win 1.1724 for every 1 that we lose -- this would come down on about 54%*.
*Important Note: While this percentage seems low comparable to the 60% that is sometimes gotten by NBA one has to realize it's not as bad as it looks. That 60% percentage was purely the percentage that the spread would make it and thus you would make a loss if you'd bet the 50-52% as well due to the avg -110 cut (which implies 52.38%) and then 54% would be low. Here however is the juice that the bookmaker takes already taken into account for it deals with the advantage over the given line and thus on the long run (supposing accuscores percentages are correct) you'd even make a slim profit if you'd bet the lines that differ only slightly [for instance, you get -145 while accuscore says the correct line would be -150].
Now, if we suppose accuscore is more right than the lines and thus weilds a profit on the long run, this method will work. It should be made sure though what the cut-off line should be -- as written just before, even very small advantages should pay off but that would simply give too many bets. The correct cut-off should be based on the desired expected amount of picks (per day, per week, per month, whatever); the more amount of desired picks from the system, the lower the cut and thus the weaker the average pick. I suppose realistically the best cut-off should be around 1.2222 aka 55% [again, this is lower than nba for the juice is already taken into the calculation]
The major problem with this whole system of calculating what the best lines are is that it is time-intensive;
1) Get the Accuscore-percentage
2) Get the line
3) Devide by %/Line in case of fav or Line / % in case of dog so to calc the strength of the play.
4) Make it a play if strength > cut-off
When done it's really not that time-intensive per game, but with more than a dozen games on a day and changing lines and percentages I suppose it would be best to make some kind of program to do it automatically... then again, I've never done something like programming of any kind so I can only suppose it could be done by a program.
So yeah, there you are for how to calculate what the best bets are according to the percentages etc.
No, not yet. And that's where the issue will lie. Figuring out how to find the value. At what point does a game create extra value? For NBA for example, I just took a look at different percentages, saw how they did and figured out that 60% or better was a solid pick and won regularly. I would highly recommend to let this play out for a month or so before putting any serious money on any of the games. I may not even play any games until I can figure out how to maximize value and return. In the meantime, I will just be tailing MJ to start the season. :drink:
No they don't do preseason.
See the thing with MLB is there will be many games that have value of 70% or higher. Yankees playing Pirates for example would yield high percentages, but the ML would be -250 or so, so the question is, is there really value there? They use something called Return on Investment to gauge the plays. These will be the figures I'll play around with to try and find the numbers that give us the best value and best chance of making some money. It won't be difficult to calulate the plays, as I've said several times, the difficultly lies in finding the real value. It'd be easy to just play every side that has some value, but you wouldn't maximize profits this way.
http://accuscore.com/mlb/articles/baseball-betting-mlb-wagering-on-side-values/
I'm going to try and follow this, using the home > 50% method described.
I'm going to try and follow this, using the home > 50% method described.
The only problem with this is you're still not going to know what number will give the best profit potential. As I've said, you could play every single game, but you're not going to maximize profits that way. If you read it, they clearly state that since its inception, they haven't had a winning April or May. That is why the numbers need to be worked out to find the best value.
I'll go back to the NBA as an example. I'm sure ppl have tried to just play every play over 50%, and maybe ended up with a profit. However, I took it up a notch and began watching different percentages and now, I have a system that is currently hitting at over 66%. I'm not saying it's going to stay this high, but it is much higher than if I had played all picks they had over 50%. That's what I'm trying to figure out for bases. Anyone can just sign up for Accuscore and follow all of their plays. The key, and I'm sorry to keep repeating myself, is to find the best value to maximize profits.
Very insteresting this thread guys , i love baseball and i made correct season picking myself...
Something is really interesting , 99.99$ a year and you don't need any cappers because if you follow one guys you may have two sides bet and you'll be down to the final....
Does anybody have information about how you can do that in NBA (spread or not) ?
Thanks guys
Something is really interesting , 99.99$ a year and you don't need any cappers because if you follow one guys you may have two sides bet and you'll be down to the final....
Does anybody have information about how you can do that in NBA (spread or not) ?
Thanks guys
I've been tinkering with some ways to utilize Accuscore for MLB and think I may have a good starting point. It's kind of tough to explain, but it utilizes the Accuscore %, the RL % and the ML odds to try and find value. That is always the key with bases, finding the value. Anyone can just play 2 dollar favs all season and hope not too many upsets happen. There's just no value there. I am going to try my best to limit ML plays to -170 or less....and I even think this is pretty high. RL plays will be played if they fall into the formula.
Be back tomorrow.
Be back tomorrow.
