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I don't know enough to know I don't know
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St. Louis Cardinals +172

Randy Johnson continues to command over inflated lines by the odds maker. He is a shell of his former self and hasn’t been on his game since the 2002 season. He is 6-9 in the last two seasons combined with a era well over four. His trademark strikeout has fallen off as well only averaging one per inning being recorded in the last year as opposed to the 1.37 he averaged the four years prior.

His opponent Jason Marquis is hopefully heading in the other direction. He developed a mid nineties sinker during the spring that produced a 9/1 ground out to fly out ratio in his only start this year. He also struck out six to only one walk showing control over his pitches. Unfortunately the bad news for him was two homers leading to a four run sixth inning. At one point he retired eight Brewers in a row either by way of a strikeout or ground out. He admitted he was pumped for his first start at Busch and perhaps it led to his inconsistency with three runs surrendered in the first three innings.

"I'll go and look at film and see where my mechanics were at," said Marquis, who came over from Atlanta in a December trade. "I felt good. My body felt great. I think sometimes I was just rushing, getting ahead of myself, trying to overthrow. That's something I try to tell myself not to do. But obviously the first start, a different situation, you want to make a good impression."

My take on this is that Marquis is a perfect match with the Cardinal gold glove defense behind him to gobble up all those ground balls. And with the bats coming alive, (23 St.Louis runs in two games at Bank One), the open roof and dry air of Arizona he should have plenty of support.

Take the better team, better pitcher, and the better value.


MLB to date……..4-5.… +1.57
Unit and a half play….1-0.….. +1.5

MLB Total to Date…..5-5.……+3.07

Happy Easter everyone!
 

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Very nice analysis. Good luck!
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looks like overnite is the way to go if you like the dogs.....

lines seem to be moving against the dogs consistently as of late....

St Louis + 157 as we speak....


good luck to day Vic
 

Oh boy!
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I'm on this one too Vic. Where did you find out about the grounders/pop-ups ratio? Nice aspect.

SportsSavant, you are correct about the overnight dog lines. Many have fallen overnight. That's why I like to bet the night before.
 

I don't know enough to know I don't know
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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by quantumleap:
I'm on this one too Vic. Where did you find out about the grounders/pop-ups ratio? Nice aspect.

SportsSavant, you are correct about the overnight dog lines. Many have fallen overnight. That's why I like to bet the night before.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stl/stats/stl_individual_player_splits.jsp?playerID=150302&sitSplit1=All&statType=2&splitSet=1&statSet=2

I heard about his working on the sinker during spring training and the combination of it's effectiveness and four gold gloves behind him tells me he's a pitcher that bares watching this year.
 

Oh boy!
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I like your write-ups Vic. We almost lost this one but the birds came through to give us a +157 win.

I have them on the over for Monday.
 

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