MLB: Sunday May 13th Plays

[buffettgambler]

Brewers @ Mets
Play: Mets -114
Intrinsic Value: -131
Consider Betting Price: -117
Comment:
The public is really starting to fall in love with the Brewers, as they are even pounding them on the road against a public favorite in their own right. Although there is no denying that they have been playing quite impressively, prior to yesterdays win, all of their wins this month came from beating the Pirates, Cardinals and Nationals, arguably the three teams playing the worst baseball in the National League right now. Perez was actually pitching quite well in his last start prior to Green’s error that broke the inning right open. He is finally starting to pitch to his potential, and has allowed more than three earned runs in only one start this season. His strikeout rates are impressive while his control has improved, going three starts without walking a batter. He has always pitched much better at home and during day games, two situational variables working in his favor in this one. Although he doesn’t have the most impressive numbers against the Brewers, he accumulated those numbers when he was a much different pitcher. He had only faced them once last year as well, and dominated them in that start. He has had a lot of lifetime success against a few of their hitters in the limited at bats that he has faced them. Although the Brewers have been hitting the ball well this year, they are overachieving a bit and have not been that impressive on the road. Perez is backed by one of the better bullpens in the league.

Capuano has been solid this year is one of the better young southpaws in the league. However, he has not faced many talented lineups, and has not been as effective in his road starts throughout his career. This might be a spot in which he witnesses a bit of regression, as he faced a team that has given him problems in the past, on the road, and during day games where he has also not been as productive. The Mets have been absolutely killing left handed pitching this year, coming into today’s game with a team average of .345 against southpaws.

 

[buffettgambler]

Angels @ Rangers
Play: Rangers +108
Intrinsic Value: -112
Consider Betting Price: +100
Comment:
I am not sure what Santana has done throughout his career as a road starter to warrant being a favorite away from home, but this line doesn’t seem fairly set in my opinion. Santana is one of the most situational pitchers in baseball, and has consistently been one of the worst road pitchers in baseball since entering the league. He comes into today’s game with a career road ERA in the mid six’s and appears to be getting progressively worse away from home, as he has generated a near eight road ERA this year. Add to the unfavorable situational mix is the notion that the Rangers have always given him problems, as his lifetime ERA of over six against them would indicate. It is no surprise that most of his struggles against this lineup have occurred in Ameriquest, as he has allowed 21 runs in just 20 innings of work in this park. Being a fly ball pitcher is also an embedded disadvantage when pitching in this park and against a power lineup like the Rangers. He is backed by a bullpen that suffered a big loss with Spiers going on the DL and will more than likely not have Shields available for this game. The Rangers are a much more potent lineup at home.


This is not nearly as much of a bet on Wood as it is a go against on Santana. However, Wood might be getting a bit disrespected due to his current numbers, as his forecasted PERA would indicate a potential future improvement. He also had to pitch to the Yankees in every one of his innings this year but two, and has shown a preference of pitching at home so far in his career. He has been much more vulnerable against left handed hitters, while the Angels lack the ideal talent from the left side, especially without Anderson in the lineup. He is backed by a front end bullpen that is built to eat up a lot of innings and has pitched well thus far. The Angels have not hit well on the road this year.

 

[buffettgambler]

Yankees @ Mariners
Play: Mariners +180
Intrinsic Value: +118
Consider Betting Price: +144
Comment:
Betting on a struggling pitcher that is going up against the best lineup in baseball always has its risks. But don’t think for a second that you are not being more than compensated for this disadvantage when going against the Yankees in this spot. Ramirez has looked awful this year, but all of his struggles have occurred on the road. When pitching for the Braves, he was always much more effective at home, and he appears to have brought this tendency over to Seattle, as he has put forth a 1.46 home ERA so far this season. Although I am not expecting the same today, giving Ramirez a confidence boost in this game is the notion that he has pitched to the Yankees once in his career, a start in which he went eight innings without allowing a run. The Yankees have not been as potent against southpaws compared to years past, while Rodriguez, Abreu and Matsui have struggled against such this year. This game can get ugly, but I feel that the Mariners have a better chance of pulling it off than the line would indicate.

Pettite is a crafty veteran pitcher that has never been nearly as effective on the road throughout his career, including this park where he has generated a lifetime ERA of near five. Although he doesn’t have much of a past history against the current Mariners team, he has shown a tendency to struggle against Ibanez and Suzuki. Pettite has also really struggled pitching to left handed hitters this year, which is not a deficiency you want going in a park that opens things up for left handed hitters and against a lineup with three solid ones. He is also backed by a bullpen that is struggling. The Mariners have actually been one of the best teams in baseball against left handed pitching this year, coming into today’s game with a team batting average near .300. They will put forth six hitters currently batting over .300 this year against southpaws.

 

[finman13]

thanks for the writeups as usual buffett. against you on all 3 today unfortunately. like the pistons,warriors, indians and pirates to. gl

 

[teazeman]

quality write-ups as usual buffett, you have been a great help to many here this season as some of us that have seen you for the last few years predicted. gl today and i always check your card if i can't find a winner on my own.

 

[Preussen]

BG, I have heard the Mets are not playing their best line-up today. Is that already factored in your analysis or might that change it?

 

[SonnySixKill]

BG, Giants are resting 4 starters today, Bonds, Aurilia, Durham and Bengie Molina. Are the Rockies a play, thax.

 

[buffettgambler]

Pruessen,
Yes, it has been factored into my valuation proccess. I like Castro against southpaws and Green has not hit left handed pitchers well.

SS,
I didn't handicapp the game as I don't have much of a feel of Buckholtz yet. It appears on the surface that there is some value on the Rockies, but I don't know how much. Those starters should hurt the Giants productivity at the plate, but Cain is not one to need a lot of run support. He owns the NL West.

 

[buffettgambler]

Adding.





Diamondbacks @ Astros
Play: Astros -127
Intrinsic Value: -142
Consider Betting Price: -128
Comment:
Rodriguez has pitched well at home this year and has upside potential. He has put forth solid numbers against the Diamdonbacks in past years. The Diamdondbacks have struggled at the plate, and are not as potent on the road. They will be with Tracy today, a staple in the heart of their lineup. Rodriguez is backed by the better bullpen in this game. Davis is pitching at a level much worse than his numbers would indicate. His Whip is horrible, as he continues to struggle with a lack of control. The Astros should take advantage of this, as they showed good patience at the plate in last night’s blowout. Davis has never been as effective on the road, and has struggled against five of the Astros hitters that will be in today’s lineup.

 

[OSUCOWBOYS]

+4.30 Yesterday

+63.12 YTD

 

[Feri]

BOL and thanks again BG :toast:

 

[RAINMAKER]

BG thanks for all your work. I saw where you asked about Players of America, then ran across this form another site.
thanks again and gl


-------------------------------------------------------------------------
anyone have Players of America? they went 9-1 yesterday.

THX!

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Players of America
3-Mets
1-Tex
1-Sea

 

[thegame2005]

GL TODAY! SOLID AS USUAL:toast:

 

[bookieblaster--banned]

BG - dont know if you saw this on another service pick site but it mirrors your plays with a few additions for both days.

Quote:
<table border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border: 1px inset ;"> Originally Posted by PUTUPorSHUTUP
Players of America YESTERDAY had:

3* Brewers - WON
3* Dodgers - WON
3* Astros - WON
1* Indians - WON
1* Angels - WON
1* Cardinals - WON
1* White Sox - WON
1* Yankees - WON
1* Marlins - LOSS

Bonus Play - Nets - WON

which equals 9-1 last 10 plays.
--------------------------------

Players of Ameica TODAY have:

3* Mets
1* Rangers
1* Mariners
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
five of those 9 winners are from a guy that posts for free and went 5-1 yesterday. with balt, angels wsox ,houston, stl and dodgers. He posted this morning mets, texas and seattle today. Later added Houston. Heard rumors someone was taking his picks and selling them as their own. This guy has been hot as can be. Friday pitt, tor, wsox and philly

 

[buffettgambler]

BG - dont know if you saw this on another service pick site but it mirrors your plays with a few additions for both days.

Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0> <TBODY><TR> <TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset"> Originally Posted by PUTUPorSHUTUP
Players of America YESTERDAY had:

3* Brewers - WON
3* Dodgers - WON
3* Astros - WON
1* Indians - WON
1* Angels - WON
1* Cardinals - WON
1* White Sox - WON
1* Yankees - WON
1* Marlins - LOSS

Bonus Play - Nets - WON

which equals 9-1 last 10 plays.
--------------------------------

Players of Ameica TODAY have:

3* Mets
1* Rangers
1* Mariners

</TD> </TR> </TBODY></TABLE>
five of those 9 winners are from a guy that posts for free and went 5-1 yesterday. with balt, angels wsox ,houston, stl and dodgers. He posted this morning mets, texas and seattle today. Later added Houston. Heard rumors someone was taking his picks and selling them as their own. This guy has been hot as can be. Friday pitt, tor, wsox and philly

Thanks. Do you have an archive of all his plays this year? Ironic that he happened to add Houston as well. Makes me sick.
Thanks ahead of time.

 

[finman13]

just got home and saw the very bizarre scores. giants and pirates looking like the 1927 yankees. some guy that looked like jae seo but pitching like warren spahn. the white sox lose by 10 runs at home to the royals!?!? red sox score 6 in the bottom of the 9th. did beckett get injured?

so far burned on 2 of 3 against buffett. rangers hit a home run in the bottom of the ninth and capuano gets pounded. when the hell will i learn to not go against the master? great job again buffett!

 

[thegame2005]

buffet..their website.www.playersofamerica.com

besides BIRDIE stealing; i have also noticed this serv having sam plays ir
today..they had mets, tex, seattle
hmm

 

[petergabriel]

buffett

Been playing your picks since the first week or so and just wanted to thank you for the effort and the time you take to help me handicap games. I played the O's today and after they gave up 6 runs I said to myself "if that was a Buffett game we would have never lost". Anyway thanks and I hope you don't take a vacation until the All Star Break!

 

[thegame2005]

I ALSO WANT TO THANK YOU BEC LIKE I POSTED BEFORE..I DO NOT CAP
BASES BUT ALWAYS FOLLOW U AND HAVE BEEN MAKING ALOT OF $$$$

THANKS AND CONTINUED LUCK:toast:

 

[theDonger]

Any thoughts on Detroit / Minny tonight?