may add a couple of plays if two teams prices continue to climb.
Happy Easter.
Pirates @ Reds
Play: Pirates +108
Intrinsic Value: -128
Consider Betting Price: -116
Comment:
No, I would never expect linesmakers to open this Pirates team a favorite on the road in this game, but I like them in this situation, and think they have a better chance of winning than losing. Don’t let Milton’s perennial low Whip fool you into thinking that one season he could lower that ERA down. He doesn’t need a high Whip to allow a lot of runs, as there are not many people more prone to the long ball than he is. This is the last thing you want when pitching in this park, especially during the day when it is much more live. It is no surprise that he put forth a home ERA well over 5 last season here, and allowed about a home run every five innings. The Pirates tagged him twice last season, and there might not be a team in baseball that has given him more problems in the past, as he comes into today’s game with a career ERA well over seven against this club. It is no surprise that there are a few hitters in Sunday’s lineup that has his number, and even new addition LaRoche is primed for a decent game as Milton has actually be less effective against left handed batters. Milton is also not in pitching shape compared to his counterpart. His spring was cut short and is just now coming off the DL with back problems. Being backed by one of the worst bullpens in the league should allow the Pirates to have scoring opportunities throughout this game.
Duke is a young southpaw with a lot of upside potential. He showed what he can do in this rookie season a couple of years back when his ERA was a mind boggling 1.82 in over 80 innings of work. Last year he went through a sophomore slump, but was actually very good after the break. He looked solid in his first start of the season. He is especially tough on left handed hitters, which is ideal when going up against the Reds, whose power is mostly generated from the left side. The Reds lineup is overrated and not ideal for manufacturing runs, which might be a problem, as Duke does not allow a lot of home runs. He is backed by a deeper and better bullpen and will be on a higher pitch count this time around.
Happy Easter.
Pirates @ Reds
Play: Pirates +108
Intrinsic Value: -128
Consider Betting Price: -116
Comment:
No, I would never expect linesmakers to open this Pirates team a favorite on the road in this game, but I like them in this situation, and think they have a better chance of winning than losing. Don’t let Milton’s perennial low Whip fool you into thinking that one season he could lower that ERA down. He doesn’t need a high Whip to allow a lot of runs, as there are not many people more prone to the long ball than he is. This is the last thing you want when pitching in this park, especially during the day when it is much more live. It is no surprise that he put forth a home ERA well over 5 last season here, and allowed about a home run every five innings. The Pirates tagged him twice last season, and there might not be a team in baseball that has given him more problems in the past, as he comes into today’s game with a career ERA well over seven against this club. It is no surprise that there are a few hitters in Sunday’s lineup that has his number, and even new addition LaRoche is primed for a decent game as Milton has actually be less effective against left handed batters. Milton is also not in pitching shape compared to his counterpart. His spring was cut short and is just now coming off the DL with back problems. Being backed by one of the worst bullpens in the league should allow the Pirates to have scoring opportunities throughout this game.
Duke is a young southpaw with a lot of upside potential. He showed what he can do in this rookie season a couple of years back when his ERA was a mind boggling 1.82 in over 80 innings of work. Last year he went through a sophomore slump, but was actually very good after the break. He looked solid in his first start of the season. He is especially tough on left handed hitters, which is ideal when going up against the Reds, whose power is mostly generated from the left side. The Reds lineup is overrated and not ideal for manufacturing runs, which might be a problem, as Duke does not allow a lot of home runs. He is backed by a deeper and better bullpen and will be on a higher pitch count this time around.