While testing some software last year in MLB, we collected results for the last two and a half months of the season and calculated teams BREAK and CONTINUE percentages when they were on winning or losing streaks. A team was on Step 1 of a streak once they recorded 3 like decisions in a row, so on Step 1 a team is going for four in a row, step 2 is going for 5 in a row and so on.
Here's what we've found:
BAD TEAMS (teams with a .500 record or worse) on a Step 1 losing streak were 51 - 51 (50% ATS). But is the team is a Home/Fav/ 121 - 140 then their record is 7 - 0, which means they have broken the losing streak all 7 times in this game situation. Other notable subset situations:
H/F101 - 120: 5 - 2
R/F 101 - 120: 6 - 2
R/D 181 - 200: 0 - 5
H/d 141 - 160: 2 - 6
BAD TEAMS ON A STEP 1 WINNING STREAK: 33 breaks - 16 continues (67.35%) Break Percentage.
Good and Bad Situations:
H/D 101 - 120: 4 - 1
H/F 121 - 140: 5 - 1
R/D 121 - 140: 4 - 0
GOOD TEAMS ON A STEP 1 LOSING STREAK: 9 - 14 (39.13%)
Good and Bad Situations:
H/F 181 and up: 3 - 0
H/F; H/D; R/F all at 101 - 120: combined 1 - 4
GOOD TEAMS ON A STEP 2 LOSING STREAK: 12 - 3 (80%). 12 out of 15 broke their losing streak at this step.
3 losses came as:
H/F 101 - 120
R/F 101 - 120
R/F 141 - 160
BAD TEAMS ON A STEP 2 LOSING STREAK: 19 - 27 (41.23%)
BEST SITUATIONS:
H/D 101 - 120: 0 - 6 (streak continued all 6 times)
R/D 101 - 120: 5 - 2
H/F 121 - 140: 3 - 1
R/D 121 - 140: 1 - 3
After the all star break I am finally going to have the completed version of these streak tables uploaded to my tracker. So we will have all the 2nd half stats from last year and all the first half stats from this year to use to find good situations in the second half. One of the tool is done I will make a walkthrough video on how to use it. Searching through this test data, as you
can see, I have uncovered some really golden stats, it will be interesting to see what happens to these stats once yhe first half of this year is added to them. Did they correct? Or did they stay on track? Should be interesting. Because besides corrections within handicapping stats, I alos have seen momentum, meaning when something starts out 3 - 0 or 3 - 1 usually it carries that momentum out at least 5 - 8 more trials. I have seen that countless times. These streak tables will be good for us in every sport to see how teams perform when they are on a streak ATS backed up by historical percentages.
Here's what we've found:
BAD TEAMS (teams with a .500 record or worse) on a Step 1 losing streak were 51 - 51 (50% ATS). But is the team is a Home/Fav/ 121 - 140 then their record is 7 - 0, which means they have broken the losing streak all 7 times in this game situation. Other notable subset situations:
H/F101 - 120: 5 - 2
R/F 101 - 120: 6 - 2
R/D 181 - 200: 0 - 5
H/d 141 - 160: 2 - 6
BAD TEAMS ON A STEP 1 WINNING STREAK: 33 breaks - 16 continues (67.35%) Break Percentage.
Good and Bad Situations:
H/D 101 - 120: 4 - 1
H/F 121 - 140: 5 - 1
R/D 121 - 140: 4 - 0
GOOD TEAMS ON A STEP 1 LOSING STREAK: 9 - 14 (39.13%)
Good and Bad Situations:
H/F 181 and up: 3 - 0
H/F; H/D; R/F all at 101 - 120: combined 1 - 4
GOOD TEAMS ON A STEP 2 LOSING STREAK: 12 - 3 (80%). 12 out of 15 broke their losing streak at this step.
3 losses came as:
H/F 101 - 120
R/F 101 - 120
R/F 141 - 160
BAD TEAMS ON A STEP 2 LOSING STREAK: 19 - 27 (41.23%)
BEST SITUATIONS:
H/D 101 - 120: 0 - 6 (streak continued all 6 times)
R/D 101 - 120: 5 - 2
H/F 121 - 140: 3 - 1
R/D 121 - 140: 1 - 3
After the all star break I am finally going to have the completed version of these streak tables uploaded to my tracker. So we will have all the 2nd half stats from last year and all the first half stats from this year to use to find good situations in the second half. One of the tool is done I will make a walkthrough video on how to use it. Searching through this test data, as you
can see, I have uncovered some really golden stats, it will be interesting to see what happens to these stats once yhe first half of this year is added to them. Did they correct? Or did they stay on track? Should be interesting. Because besides corrections within handicapping stats, I alos have seen momentum, meaning when something starts out 3 - 0 or 3 - 1 usually it carries that momentum out at least 5 - 8 more trials. I have seen that countless times. These streak tables will be good for us in every sport to see how teams perform when they are on a streak ATS backed up by historical percentages.
