Suffered my first losing day of the season yesterday. I may add a couple of plays throughout the day.
Tigers @ Royals
Play: Royals +124
Intrinsic Value: +100
Consider Betting Price: +117
Comment:
The Royals continue to get disrespected by books even though they have showed they make for a tough team to beat at home. I said prior to his last start that Meche has the pitching arsenal to be a dominant pitcher, and he showed that on opening day by running through a Red Sox lineup. His problem has always been a mental deficiency and a lack of confidence that usually was displayed in his road starts when playing for the Mariners. When at home, he was a much more effective pitcher for Seattle, and if his first start was any indication, it appears that he is doing the same for the Royals. Not only does Meche have one of the higher disparities of home vs. away numbers, but the same could be said for his day vs. night numbers, as it appears that his curveball is much harder to pick up during the day. His lifetime day ERA is 3.72 compared to his night 5.37 ERA, a disparity beyond randomness. Probably the team that he pitched the best against last year was the Tigers, putting forth a solid ERA and OBA. There is not one player in today’s lineup that can say has Meche’s number. With the lack of patience the Tigers hitters have at the plate, Meche should avoid a high pitch count, thus allowing him to go deep into this game and avoid their bullpen. The Royals bullpen is well rested.
Not having pitched a meaningful game in nearly a year, Maroth appears to be getting a bit too much respect from linesmakers, especially since he was nothing special prior to his major injury. He never was effective pitching to right handed bats, which could be a problem against this underrated Royals lineup. In the past, Maroth had struggled against the Royals, and even left handed hitter DeJesus has hit him well. Lacking overpowering stuff, Maroth is dependent on the home plate ump to give him the corners, something that he will more than likely not get with West behind home plate. The Royals are a much better hitting team when playing at home.
Tigers @ Royals
Play: Royals +124
Intrinsic Value: +100
Consider Betting Price: +117
Comment:
The Royals continue to get disrespected by books even though they have showed they make for a tough team to beat at home. I said prior to his last start that Meche has the pitching arsenal to be a dominant pitcher, and he showed that on opening day by running through a Red Sox lineup. His problem has always been a mental deficiency and a lack of confidence that usually was displayed in his road starts when playing for the Mariners. When at home, he was a much more effective pitcher for Seattle, and if his first start was any indication, it appears that he is doing the same for the Royals. Not only does Meche have one of the higher disparities of home vs. away numbers, but the same could be said for his day vs. night numbers, as it appears that his curveball is much harder to pick up during the day. His lifetime day ERA is 3.72 compared to his night 5.37 ERA, a disparity beyond randomness. Probably the team that he pitched the best against last year was the Tigers, putting forth a solid ERA and OBA. There is not one player in today’s lineup that can say has Meche’s number. With the lack of patience the Tigers hitters have at the plate, Meche should avoid a high pitch count, thus allowing him to go deep into this game and avoid their bullpen. The Royals bullpen is well rested.
Not having pitched a meaningful game in nearly a year, Maroth appears to be getting a bit too much respect from linesmakers, especially since he was nothing special prior to his major injury. He never was effective pitching to right handed bats, which could be a problem against this underrated Royals lineup. In the past, Maroth had struggled against the Royals, and even left handed hitter DeJesus has hit him well. Lacking overpowering stuff, Maroth is dependent on the home plate ump to give him the corners, something that he will more than likely not get with West behind home plate. The Royals are a much better hitting team when playing at home.