Nice job X
Not sure if you saw it X, but Angle #1 tonight is on San Diego Padres +155.
Any reason you no longer are following/posting the angles X? Was with you on those.
Ticket & Money Percentages versus the Florida Lottery
Here are the experiment’s parameters…
Purpose – To see if there is a statistical difference in performance between random selection and (1) Ticket and money percentages on one side with the line moving in the opposite direction (a.k.a. “reverse line movement) and (2) Angles with a high ticket percentage on one side of the wager, but a high money percentage on the other side (theory being high money and low tickets = sharp money on high money side).
Experiment – From April 14th through May 10th, I will use a very popular app’s ticket and money percentages, with Pinnacle’s prices to determine the daily MLB angles for this experiment. I will cover two different angles each day. The first angle (Angle #1) I will cover is… I will look for reverse line movement and use the wager with the highest number of tickets placed that fits this parameter. The second angle I will cover is… I will look for wagers with a ticket percentage above 60% on one side and a money percentage above 60% on the other side, using the wager with the highest number of tickets placed that fits this parameter. Both of these angles will compete against a random number generator. The random number generator will be the previous day’s Florida Lottery Pick 2 numbers, for the midday draw.
Florida’s Pick 2 game is simple. The game selects two balls numbered 0-9. The result is a winning two digit number like 2-8. The first ball will correspond to Angle #1’s game. The second ball will correspond to Angle #2’s game. If the Angle #1 and Angle #2 happen to be the same wager for that day, only the first Pick 2 ball will be used. An even number means you take the favorite and odd number means you take the dog.
So, on a sample day, Florida’s Pick 2 numbers for the previous day’s midday draw were 1-6. I would use the dog in the game involving Angle #1 (because the first ball is an odd number… “1”) and I would use the favorite in the game involving Angle #2 (because the second ball is an even number… “6”).
In the end, we will see if the ticket and money percentages performed statistically better at wagering than the Florida Lottery’s Pick 2 game! I don’t know whether my hypothesis is correct or not, but at a minimum this should be fun to watch every day.
Hypothesis – There is no statistical difference in performance using ticket and money percentages to determine profitable wagering angles versus simply random selection.
Analysis – Refer to the daily log below for a tracking of this experiment.
Conclusion – Will be posted in this spot on May 11th, 2021! I would have continued the experiment through to May 14th to complete the month, however scheduled website updates that week prevent me from going past the 10th. I don’t think the 4 days will make a material difference.
It is and always has been @TheSharpPlays on twitter and his newsletter.
A tennis pick is up now in the International & Other Sports Forum:
http://www.therxforum.com/forumdisplay.php?f=117
No that was my point he is posting @thesharpplays verbatim and passing them off as his own
No that was my point he is posting [edit] verbatim and passing them off as his own