MLB Handicappers - What Do You Look For Before Deciding To Make A Play?

[oldmanTED]

First, let me say, that I rarely bet baseball. Have only made one personal bet on my Giants so far this year. Normally, I'll get involved in the postseason, but basically am just a diehard fan.

The RX is loaded with very talented handicappers, whether it be in the MLB and/or Tracker Forum and even the Offshore Forum has some sharps as well. I was wondering what types of things that any of you baseball handicappers look for when deciding to make a play. I realize the pitcher is paramount, but there must be other factors when you're deciding on a side or total.

Would appreciate any and all thoughts, comments, and opinions. Never to old to learn.

 

[royalfan]

what the line is at pinnacle vs what line I can get.

 

[Budworth22]

Rate offense 5-10-15-20 (incopetent, competent, above average, excellent)
Rate Starters (3-6-12) (Incompetent, competent, very good)
Rate Bullpens (2-4-8) (Incompetent, competent, excellent)

Factor in win streaks, Park Factors, weakness of lineup versus leftys, injuries, k pitchers vs free swingers, k pitchers vs patient teams, sinkerballers in hr parks (more value), sinkerballers in huge parks (less value), GB/FB tendency, past success, public perception, wind conditions, and umpire. I award points for each of these (or deduct them), and come up with a score. Not gonna tell what I award for them on a public forum, but you get the idea.
​

 

[oldmanTED]

what the line is at pinnacle vs what line I can get.

Royalfan:

Would you mind elaborating a little on your comment? Does it mean you are using Pinnacle lean as your guide to a play or not?

 

[oldmanTED]

Rate offense 5-10-15-20 (incopetent, competent, above average, excellent)

Rate Starters (3-6-12) (Incompetent, competent, very good)
Rate Bullpens (2-4-8) (Incompetent, competent, excellent)​

Factor in win streaks, Park Factors, weakness of lineup versus leftys, injuries, k pitchers vs free swingers, k pitchers vs patient teams, sinkerballers in hr parks (more value), sinkerballers in huge parks (less value), GB/FB tendency, past success, public perception, wind conditions, and umpire. I award points for each of these (or deduct them), and come up with a score. Not gonna tell what I award for them on a public forum, but you get the idea.​

Budsworth:

Good stuff. Thanks for sharing.

 

[royalfan]

Royalfan:

Would you mind elaborating a little on your comment? Does it mean you are using Pinnacle lean as your guide to a play or not?

yes, often times I do.

 

[TomorrowsNewspaper]

for me it is all about value. I use a number of factors to determine the line (my line). Then look for value against the real line. Some items that factor into my line include steam,streaks, pitching, pitching, pitching, umpires, lineups,wind and my gut just a little.

 

[Dubpoet]

I don't look at lines at all first. I go to Yahoo and look at schedule and pitchers without knowing the line. I parlay alot so I only need teams that win.

<TABLE class=module borderColor=#111111 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=770 border=0 rgfloat="440,600"><TBODY><TR class=moduletitle><TD align=left colSpan=12>Parlay ticket 4690724 submitted on 06/01/06 4:32 AM</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD>NSS</TD><TD noWrap>Game Date</TD><TD align=left>Selection</TD><TD noWrap align=left>Line, AP$/Cap</TD><TD align=left>Oppenent</TD><TD align=right>Risk</TD><TD align=right>To Win</TD><TD align=right> </TD><TD align=right> </TD><TD align=right> </TD></TR><TR class=modulebody><TD>704</TD><TD noWrap align=left>06/01/06 8:35 PM</TD><TD align=left>DALLAS</TD><TD noWrap align=left>-330</TD><TD align=left>PHOENIX</TD><TD noWrap align=right>$1,000.00</TD><TD noWrap align=right>$4,664.46</TD><TD noWrap align=right> </TD><TD noWrap align=right> </TD><TD noWrap align=right> </TD></TR><TR class=modulebody><TD>907</TD><TD noWrap align=left>06/01/06 7:05 PM</TD><TD align=left>CWS J CONTRERAS -R</TD><TD noWrap align=left>-142</TD><TD align=left>CLE P BYRD -R</TD><TD noWrap align=right> </TD><TD noWrap align=right> </TD><TD noWrap align=right> </TD><TD noWrap align=right> </TD><TD noWrap align=right> </TD></TR><TR class=modulebody><TD>914</TD><TD noWrap align=left>06/01/06 10:05 PM</TD><TD align=left>OAK B ZITO -L</TD><TD noWrap align=left>-170</TD><TD align=left>MIN B BONSER -R</TD><TD noWrap align=right> </TD><TD noWrap align=right> </TD><TD noWrap align=right> </TD><TD noWrap align=right> </TD><TD noWrap align=right> </TD></TR><TR class=modulebody><TD>12</TD><TD noWrap align=left>06/01/06 7:37 PM</TD><TD align=left>CAROLINA</TD><TD noWrap align=left>-165</TD><TD align=left>BUFFALO</TD><TD noWrap align=right> </TD><TD noWrap align=right> </TD><TD noWrap align=right> </TD><TD noWrap align=right> </TD><TD noWrap align=right> </TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD align=left colSpan=5>Totals:</TD><TD align=right>$1,000.00</TD><TD align=right>$4,664.46</TD><TD align=left> </TD><TD align=right> </TD><TD align=right> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[royalfan]

looks like a decent parlay dub

 

[oldmanTED]

Thanks for the responses so far. A simple bump to catch any thoughts from our evening posters.

 

[jeckll]

Especially early in the year, I like catching a few hot pitchers (usually young) and riding them. Generally young guys that don't get a lot of media coverage are great bets because they will be undervalued especially when playing against a public fav or are on a bad team.

Recent examples, Kazmir although he's reaching primetime now, Verlander but same, Webb earlier this season, etc.

 

[Journeyman]

For me it all starts and finishes with the starting pitcher, how he's fared against his opponents projected lineup, how he's pitched in his last 5 starts, also any trends/streaks , if he' been in several games in a row over or under,if he's won several games by large margins, same with teams if they have been involved in several straight over or unders...I focus on certain teams I bet on that I know really well and have had good succes betting with, I think that is very key, if I don't do well with certain teams or pitchers I won't even think of betting them.

This is the reason I feel baseball is the easiest to beat, you have much less to be concerned with and can focus on head to head statistical matchups battervs pitcher history and pitcher recent history....the only other sport that you can break it down like this is maybe hockey, but I don't bet hockey.

 

[FairWarning]

I look at two things - the pitcher, and the recent streak a team is on.

 

[Journeyman]

Also would like to add, I would never lay much over -130 and will usually look for + money.