I may add at least one more play.
Blue Jays @ Orioles
Play: Orioles -116
Intrinsic Value: -163
Consider betting Price: -148
Comment:
A lot of hidden value on the Orioles, as I was expecting them to trade well below their intrinsic value in this game. Cabrera has had some of the nastiest and overpowering stuff since coming to the big leagues, but his lack of command in prior years prevented him from being a dominant pitcher. However, he looks like a completely different pitcher this year (literally and figuratively as he actually is two inches taller this year) as he has shown solid command on the mound, and has walked just one batter in the last two starts combined. He has always been much more comfortable pitching at home, and his night numbers compared to his day game numbers appear to be beyond randomness, as he has put forth a career 3.96 night ERA as opposed to a 6.18 day game ERA. He eats up right handed hitters, which could be a problem for a right handed loaded lineup like the Blue Jays. He has also been getting progressively more effective against the left handed batters he has faced. Last year, there was not a lineup in baseball that Cabrera dominated more than the Blue Jays, as he pitched 27 innings against them, yet allowed just four runs. He has dominated a lot of the hitters that will be in today’s lineup. The Blue Jays lineup is not as potent with two key hitters injured, Glauss and Johnson. Without them, they are not more dependent on Wells, which does not bode well for their chances in this game, as he comes into it with just one hit in 19 at bats against Cabrera. The Blue Jays are a much less potent hitting on the road, and have not looked good at the plate in recent games. Cabrera is finally not being backed by a bullpen that is a liability, as they improved as much as any other team in baseball in the off season.
Burnett has not looked sharp in the early going, as his lack of command has plagued his career as well. He has been known to struggle more on the road, and got roughed up in his only road outing this year. His lack of control combined with his propensity to go for the strikeout in every at bat leads him to accumulate a high pitch count in the early going. The Blue Jays pen has struggled of late, and are not terribly talented without Ryan. The Orioles lineup is coming off a series in which they finally appeared to break out of their early season funk, and have been are also a team that hits much better at home. The Orioles lineup also matches up much better against right handed pitching, and will throw five left handers at Burnett. The Blue Jays lack a reliable southpaw in the bullpen as well.
Blue Jays @ Orioles
Play: Orioles -116
Intrinsic Value: -163
Consider betting Price: -148
Comment:
A lot of hidden value on the Orioles, as I was expecting them to trade well below their intrinsic value in this game. Cabrera has had some of the nastiest and overpowering stuff since coming to the big leagues, but his lack of command in prior years prevented him from being a dominant pitcher. However, he looks like a completely different pitcher this year (literally and figuratively as he actually is two inches taller this year) as he has shown solid command on the mound, and has walked just one batter in the last two starts combined. He has always been much more comfortable pitching at home, and his night numbers compared to his day game numbers appear to be beyond randomness, as he has put forth a career 3.96 night ERA as opposed to a 6.18 day game ERA. He eats up right handed hitters, which could be a problem for a right handed loaded lineup like the Blue Jays. He has also been getting progressively more effective against the left handed batters he has faced. Last year, there was not a lineup in baseball that Cabrera dominated more than the Blue Jays, as he pitched 27 innings against them, yet allowed just four runs. He has dominated a lot of the hitters that will be in today’s lineup. The Blue Jays lineup is not as potent with two key hitters injured, Glauss and Johnson. Without them, they are not more dependent on Wells, which does not bode well for their chances in this game, as he comes into it with just one hit in 19 at bats against Cabrera. The Blue Jays are a much less potent hitting on the road, and have not looked good at the plate in recent games. Cabrera is finally not being backed by a bullpen that is a liability, as they improved as much as any other team in baseball in the off season.
Burnett has not looked sharp in the early going, as his lack of command has plagued his career as well. He has been known to struggle more on the road, and got roughed up in his only road outing this year. His lack of control combined with his propensity to go for the strikeout in every at bat leads him to accumulate a high pitch count in the early going. The Blue Jays pen has struggled of late, and are not terribly talented without Ryan. The Orioles lineup is coming off a series in which they finally appeared to break out of their early season funk, and have been are also a team that hits much better at home. The Orioles lineup also matches up much better against right handed pitching, and will throw five left handers at Burnett. The Blue Jays lack a reliable southpaw in the bullpen as well.