KC +120 for .3%
KC -1.5 +198 for .2%
MIN +146 for .3%
MIN -1.5 +284 for .2%
KC and MIN are a little bit of a stretch to risk .5% on, given the typical requirements I look for regarding value.
Altice, did you get my email addy?
CWS -1.5 +147 for .2%
CLEVELAND has scored exactly 4 runs in each of their last 7 games. In their last 10 they have scored more than 4 only once, they tallied 12 against these same White Sox. What does this mean? Hell, if I know, but I'd take CWS -1.5 at +125. I dont see anything real good today, there is a lot of conflicting information on most of the games, I'm sure there will be better value in upcoming games. I have only briefly looked at the night games, I dont seem to fare as well on those teams though.
KC -1.5 +198 for .2%
MIN +146 for .3%
MIN -1.5 +284 for .2%
KC and MIN are a little bit of a stretch to risk .5% on, given the typical requirements I look for regarding value.
Altice, did you get my email addy?
CWS -1.5 +147 for .2%
CLEVELAND has scored exactly 4 runs in each of their last 7 games. In their last 10 they have scored more than 4 only once, they tallied 12 against these same White Sox. What does this mean? Hell, if I know, but I'd take CWS -1.5 at +125. I dont see anything real good today, there is a lot of conflicting information on most of the games, I'm sure there will be better value in upcoming games. I have only briefly looked at the night games, I dont seem to fare as well on those teams though.
thanks,for the props, but I have made a ton of mistakes, I cut back on them last week. And the sheer number of wagers helps mask mistakes IMO, as far as profitability. I dont have a whole lot of experience in baseball, especially when compared to other sports which is why I have kept my exposure so low (appx .5% on avg wager) but I have found something that seems to work fairly well and as my sample size grows then I may increase risk according to my yield per event. On basketball I typically risk an average of almost 1% per game, until I hit a certain profit level at which I usually REDUCE my exposure on avg games, but INCREASE exposure on games that I feel offer higher value. On football I typically risk 1.5% per game, but I may decrease that this year b/c I will have so many 2nd half wagers on which my ROI was quite a bit higher. There will be plenty of BAD days ahead, but I havent had a whole lot of really bad WEEKS. I have some weeks that end up losing money, but very few that lose 10% or more. I'm feeling more and more strongly that most lines are shaded towards the favorite in MLB, of course it will be interesting to see how things go as the season progresses.
SF -1.5 +106 for .3%
SF under 8 -105 for .2% (I DONT like U8.5 laying -120)
SF -1.5 +106 for .3%
SF under 8 -105 for .2% (I DONT like U8.5 laying -120)
It's a little difficult for me to put into words...I guess the best way to explain it is that if all I had offered to me was under 8.5 -115 I would pass, I dont have it as a strong play at all, it's only a lean, and IMO a couple of shops WANT action on the over. On leans I want to be +EV, this play isnt, but the book's opinion kind of makes it +EV, if you know what I mean? As far as the value of half-runs, I pretty much stay away from that type of stuff. The books probably have some of the strongest numbers over time for half-runs, but that can be a WEAKNESS. OVER TIME the books make money on these statistics- that is why they use them. We make money in the SHORT TERM, by finding value in the single day. The books know they will get enough of people's money over weeks, months, and years with their SLOW MOVING adjustments. I'm not sure if you find this an answer to your question, and it may not make sense, but it's a sort of philosophy that I follow, one thing I tell the not-so-statistically inclined is "the books have to hang the lines, all we have to do is choose the right side" and in this case, given key market opinions and offered an over 8 -115, under 8 -105 I'll take the under. At 8.5 -115 I'd have to like it about 10% more.
I am always tweaking my wagering strategy. To be honest, I am making mistakes by risking too little. But I almost NEVER increase wagers when I am winning, I usually wait for losing days or a 3-12 type day before increasing wagers. I am getting close to having enough baseball games as a sample size to see what kind of advantages/disadvantages that I have in this sport. Last year I had a horrible stretch in the last month or so during the regular season when favorites kept winning. I didnt wager on nearly as many games, just the dogs I was taking didnt win. I also bet against Oakland last year during their record setting winning streak from their 8th win in a row until I finally said "f*** this!!" when they got up to #17 or #18. I still laugh about it, but it goes to show that ANYTHING can happen and WILL...EVENTUALLY. At lower betting levels you can get away with putting more money on each game when the money is easily REPLACEABLE. When your bankroll is large, your yield doesnt need to be as high so it's all about positive expectation and protecting your bankroll while being as profitable as possible.
I added a little to LA over 8 +100 it's now .3%
LA -1.5 +156 for .2%
I added a little to LA over 8 +100 it's now .3%
LA -1.5 +156 for .2%
