MLB Fantasy News 2013

[HacheMan]

Astros not devoid of fantasy talent after all

Eric Karabell

The Houston Astros own baseball's best record -- OK, so it's a bit misleading! -- after Sunday's 8-2 opening night win over their in-state rival, the Texas Rangers, and while it's hardly a harbinger to make World Series plans, it's still fun to see unheralded players such as outfielder Justin Maxwell, who perhaps you've considered owning in a deep fantasy league, perform well. Maxwell certainly played a key role in the victory, delivering a two-run triple to get the scoring started in the fourth inning and then later walking and adding another three-base hit.

I've long been intrigued by Maxwell, now 29, since he clearly showed the tools to contribute in home runs and stolen bases while toiling in the minors for years in the Washington Nationals' organization. In 2007, he hit 27 home runs and stole 35 bases! As recently as 2011 for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in the New York Yankees' system, he hit 16 home runs and stole 11 bases in 48 games. The somewhat desperate Astros took a look at him last year and were rewarded with 18 home runs and nine steals in barely half a season of at-bats. He has signature flaws at the plate, but still I find it odd that people seem so pessimistic about Maxwell. After all, he's going to play, which is half the battle.

<OFFER>While most look simply at Maxwell's low batting average and high strikeout total as a reason to expect the worst, I see potential. He's not likely to ever contend for a batting title, but he has an enticing blend of power and speed. It's not a good Astros team, and prospect George Springer, likely the team's future in center field, isn't quite ready, so Maxwell has the center-field job to himself right now, certainly against left-handed pitching, against which he hit those triples Sunday. I don't expect Maxwell, who hit .229 last season in the majors, to hit higher than .250, not with his lack of plate discipline and struggles against right-handers, but as long as he provides power and speed, that's OK.</OFFER>

Maxwell's swing can often be a mess, as evidenced by the fact he whiffed in nearly a third of his 2012 at-bats (114 K's in 315 ABs). That's terrible, and it's why he's a batting-average liability unless he changes his approach, which also isn't likely at this age. But Maxwell is also likely to play quite a bit more than he did in 2012 for the Astros. He's owned in a mere 3.4 percent of ESPN standard leagues and coming off a terrible spring training (.153, 21 strikeouts in 59 at-bats), which we've noted repeatedly means little unless it costs someone a job. It obviously didn't cost Maxwell his job. Don't overrate him from Opening Day, but don't presume he can't repeat his relative success from 2012 in terms of home runs and stolen bases, either. ESPN Fantasy projects 22 home runs and 14 steals, which is certainly reasonable, and worth owning, depending on the rest of your team. I'd take that in a deep league, even if it means I have to pair him up with someone like Joe Mauer to help in batting average.

By the way, second baseman Jose Altuve is the lone Astro being selected in the top 200 in ESPN average live drafts, but I can make a case that Maxwell is knocking on that door. Let's hope Sunday was a harbinger, and the Astros face a lot of left-handed pitching!

Here are other random thoughts on Sunday's game. Starting today, we'll have many more games to pick from!


• Right-hander Bud Norris started for Houston and tossed five scoreless innings before running into trouble in the sixth. As usual, command was an issue; he walked three and threw first-pitch strikes to only half the 24 hitters he faced. Only 59 of his 97 pitches were strikes. Norris has 200-strikeout potential, but he has averaged only 169 innings over the past three seasons, and his lack of command results in shorter outings, costing him potential wins. And on this team, he shouldn't get many wins anyway. In an AL-only format, he's worth owning thanks to his strikeouts, though he's a liability in ERA and WHIP.

• Erik Bedard saved the win, the first and likely last save of his career. Bedard did so with 3 1/3 scoreless innings, and even in an 8-2 win, that's an official save. More importantly, Bedard threw strikes and threw hard. That said, it's tough to like him for more than 24 starts, since the last time he accomplished this was 2007. He should make his first start for the Astros next weekend against the Oakland Athletics, but in my mind, Bedard is nothing more than a deep-league spot starter. Norris is the better mixed-league pickup.

• If Maxwell goes into a prolonged slump or gets hurt, Rick Ankiel seems next in line to handle center field. Ankiel blasted a three-run home run Sunday, and he figures to play regularly in right field against right-handed pitching, with Brandon Barnes facing lefties. Unlike Maxwell, Ankiel had a terrific spring, hitting .413 with 10 extra-base hits, and it wouldn't be shocking to see him hit 15 home runs this season. In an AL-only format, he's worth a few dollars.

• Matt Dominguez, still only 23 years old, is not expected to hit enough to impact fantasy rosters. His calling card is defense. But Dominguez had some nice at-bats Sunday, drawing a walk, seeing 22 pitches in all, and he knocked in a run on an infield single. Like Maxwell, Dominguez probably won't hit .250, since right-handed pitchers can overpower him, but I could see 15 home runs and 70 RBIs.

• On the Rangers' side, I actually liked what Matt Harrison was doing, though he missed his spots at times. He allowed six runs (five earned), but fanned nine in his 5 2/3 innings. Harrison is owned in 100 percent of leagues, and it would be a shame if that dropped from this outing, since fantasy owners tend to be a bit too reactive early on. I'd buy low, personally.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Believe in prospects now?[/h][h=3]Fernandez, Maurer among young pitchers getting early look in rotation[/h]
By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Two baseball stories begin their first chapters this week: Jose Fernandez is set to make his major league debut for the Miami Marlins on Sunday, Brandon Maurer his for the Seattle Mariners on Thursday.

(Obligatory pause to allow you to regain your composure, knowing that you, like most any fantasy owner, cannot contain your excitement when a prospect debuts.)

Understandably, headlines like Fernandez's anticipated debut -- the freshest among prospect-related news, so we'll discuss him first -- send us scrambling to the waiver wire. The proverbial "getting in on the ground floor" is an irresistible urge for fantasy owners, with no greater evidence than this: In the four FAAB-bidding leagues in which I play (or follow, to include the League of Alternative Baseball Reality-NL results), Fernandez cost an average of 28.3 percent of the winning team's seasonal FAAB budget and was the most expensive player purchased in all but one. The exception was my local NL-only league, in which Kyle Lohse took those honors.

Fernandez's prospect credentials are stunning: He was the No. 14 pick overall in the 2011 amateur draft. He had an astonishing 1.75 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and .191 batting average allowed in 25 starts in the minors in 2012. He was tabbed Keith Law's No. 6 pitching prospect and No. 16 overall, as well as Baseball America's No. 2 pitching and No. 5 prospect overall, this preseason. And he has a mid-90s fastball with a curveball that Law himself says "would miss right-handers' bats in the majors today."

But before we embrace this Fernandez lovefest, let's undergo a brief reality check: This is a 20-year-old with only 11 starts in high Class A ball, none higher, who made only one appearance of two innings facing mostly minor leaguers during this year's Grapefruit League action. His promotion is a bold move by the Marlins; the reality is that expecting much from him this season might be too bold.

There is no doubt that Fernandez should have cost a considerable chunk of any fantasy team's FAAB budget, based solely upon his scouting reports and high -- albeit potentially distant -- statistical ceiling. Now the question becomes: To what degree should you trust him, or Maurer, for that matter, in the early weeks of 2013?

Let's allow history to provide us an outline.

Using a 10-year span of prospect reports -- we'll use Baseball America's annual Top 100 prospects for this study, to grant us the largest sample possible -- I've analyzed the start-by-start, early-career performances of 80 pitchers who managed to place as one of the top 10 pitching prospects from 2000-09. To improve the sample, I've isolated only the 41 of those 80 who have made at least 80 career major league starts. The results were telling:

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>

Career Start	<CENTER>ERA</CENTER>	<CENTER>WHIP</CENTER>	<CENTER>K/9</CENTER>	<CENTER>K/BB</CENTER>	<CENTER>HR/9</CENTER>	<CENTER>IP/GS</CENTER>	<CENTER>QS%</CENTER>
1	4.14	1.34	7.67	1.84	1.25	5.46	34.1%
1 to 5	4.03	1.35	7.20	1.76	0.97	5.69	47.8%
6 to 10	4.56	1.44	6.92	1.76	1.08	5.64	43.9%
11 to 20	4.27	1.38	7.27	2.12	1.10	5.70	48.0%
21 to 30	4.12	1.35	7.48	2.21	0.95	5.92	54.6%
31 to 40	4.02	1.36	7.49	2.18	0.90	6.00	54.4%
41 to 50	3.58	1.25	7.48	2.39	0.83	6.28	58.0%
51 to 60	3.84	1.30	7.42	2.31	0.88	6.14	53.4%
61 to 70	3.81	1.30	7.48	2.54	0.99	6.17	57.6%
71 to 80	3.69	1.25	7.65	2.58	0.90	6.36	61.5%

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Any veteran fantasy owner has, by this point, probably heard the phrase, "Every young pitcher endures an adjustment period." The chart above illustrates this; this group of elite pitching prospects typically reached this career stage between their sixth and 20th turns in the majors, then fully hit their stride by about their 40th career starts. This is evidence that you shouldn't expect the breakthrough during a top pitching prospect's rookie season, but rather his sophomore campaign, if you have the option of waiting.

It's the performance of those debut dandies, though, which are most curious. The chart also shows that prospects tend to enjoy an initial advantage through their first five career turns, particularly in the strikeout department. The rationale is anyone's guess; it could be as simple as their early opponents possessing less extensive scouting reports. This is especially relevant to pitchers like Fernandez, who averaged 10.73 K's per nine innings during his minor league career, and Maurer, who averaged 8.37 per nine during his. It's also relevant to a pitcher who has already debuted, Shelby Miller, who has but one big-league start under his belt and an 11.07 K's per nine ratio in his minor league career.


(Again an obligatory pause, this time to recognize that Maurer, unlike Fernandez or Miller, was not regarded a top-10 pitching prospect by either Law or Baseball America this preseason. He was one of Law's "just missed" prospects, so admittedly, he doesn't directly adhere to the chart guidelines.)

In other words, if you own Fernandez, Maurer or Miller, there's every bit as compelling a reason to activate them now rather than leave them on your bench for evaluation purposes until June. Granted, no two prospects possess identical skills, makeup, mentality and circumstances, all variables that influence the study, but history does show a greater chance that you'll miss a prospect's more valuable outings and absorb his adjustment-period performances if you play the waiting game.

You might also want to use the data for sell-high trading purposes, in the event that one or both gets off to a comparably strong start. After all, prospect buzz often can drive trade stock into the stratosphere. If, say, Fernandez is sitting at a 3.40 ERA and 37 K's through his first five starts, it might be a brilliant idea to shop him, because he's highly likely to reach an adjustment stage at some point.

Returning to the study's guidelines for a moment, let's not gloss over the high failure rate of this group. That only 41 of the 80 prospects reached the 80-start plateau means that a whopping 39 did not -- though, to be fair, 10 of those 39 "made it" as relievers, while it could be argued that five others (Brett Anderson, Wade Davis, Brian Matusz, Jarrod Parker and Chris Tillman) still have an opportunity to "make it." Still, that leaves 24 of 80 prospects, or exactly 30 percent, who failed to develop into long-term successes at the major league level. And that's only top-10, elite-level, prospects; a pitcher like Maurer, if he fails, wouldn't even count against that total in future years (unless he earns a top-10 ranking in 2014 or beyond).

That sure demonstrates the boom/bust nature of pitching prospects, and it's why we advise so strongly that you tread carefully with them.

A final note as it pertains to a pitcher's career development: Those career-starts-41-and-beyond statistics represent promising news for an attractive group of sophomores and third-year starters who could follow a similar pattern of improvement in 2013. The following pitchers, along with their career big league starts in parentheses, were Baseball America top-10 prospects between 2000-12 who reside within a group of pitchers with between 41 and 80 turns: Brett Anderson (68), Jeremy Hellickson (64), Stephen Strasburg (45) and Chris Tillman (51). In addition, Yu Darvish (29), Matt Moore (32), Jarrod Parker (30) and Chris Sale (29) should also reach the 41-start plateau by midsummer.

Consider it a good time, at least as history dictates, to trade for each.

[h=3]Rotations, schmotations[/h]
It must be one of those annual rites of spring, like birds, bulbs and baseball: Questions about rotation order and the relevance of Opening Day starts.


Fantasy owners' knowledge as a whole has increased in the past three seasons -- thank you, sabermetrics -- since the last time I ran this study, but every so often you'll still run into the occasional outlier who leans upon a faulty assumption: That a pitcher's alignment as his team's "ace"/Opening Day starter puts him in a pattern to face only fellow "aces," leading to a decrease in that pitcher's win potential. Some might say that New York Mets Opening Day starter Jonathan Niese, for example, might be bound to suffer in the win column.

The truth is that the only time the term "ace" matters is during the playoffs, in a short series, when the goal is to get that man on the mound as often as possible.

During the regular season, the day-to-day grind of 162 games, including off days that populate teams' schedules at varying frequencies, shuffle rotation orders, meaning that said "aces" often aren't even facing their opponent's same by their second turns. We'll already witness this for the first time Saturday, when Texas Rangers "ace" Matt Harrison works on four days' rest, lining him up against Los Angeles Angels No. 5 starter Tommy Hanson. The label also sometimes changes hands during the course of said schedule.

To lean on history again for evidence, I've analyzed 13 seasons' worth of rotational data (2000-12) -- consider it a expansion of the aforementioned 2010 study -- to illustrate how opening-week order becomes largely irrelevant deeper in the season. Labeling each team's Opening Day starter its "staff ace" and numbering its subsequent starters in order, staff aces actually matched up with the same in only 22.3 percent of their total starts all season -- that means that, after Opening Day passes, those staff aces actually meet up in only 19.5 percent of their remaining turns. And remember, with most teams using a traditional five rotation spots, you'd expect a pitcher to have a 20 percent chance of facing each individual spot.

There is, however, truth to the part about an ace possessing diminished win potential when specifically lined up with a fellow ace. The following chart compares these aces' performances to the league averages:

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<CENTER></CENTER>	<CENTER>QS%</CENTER>	<CENTER>W/GS</CENTER>	<CENTER>Cheap Wins /GS</CENTER>	<CENTER>Non-Win QS /GS</CENTER>	<CENTER>Tough Losses /GS</CENTER>
Aces vs. aces	58.7	0.369	0.052	0.270	0.115
MLB averages	49.1	0.352	0.079	0.219	0.085

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If wins are paramount in your league, that's something to keep in mind -- but only as a single day's matchups are concerned, not as a yearlong thing. In other words, take it into account if, say, you see Clayton Kershaw battling Matt Cain on Aug. 3. But even if you're worried about diminished win potential, are you really going to bench either Kershaw or Cain accordingly?

Another big check in the aces' column: Aces were actually the most likely to provide you with a full healthy season, meaning the greatest appeal for these Opening Day starters is that it signifies teams' trust in them as regular contributors. These pitchers averaged 28.1 starts per season, which is astonishingly high if you consider the injury rate for pitchers.

[h=3]Relief Efforts[/h]
One of the enhancements you'll notice to this year's "Sixty Feet Six Inches" is the incorporation of our former "Relief Efforts" column into the analysis. Listed at column's end is this season's first set of rankings, and one that ranks both starters and relievers in one set. (For the sake of convenience, a pitcher's individual rank as starter or reliever is indicated, as "SP01" or "RP01," for example.)


</PHOTO4></P>
There'll also be a "Relief Efforts" section -- barring the column itself sporting a relief-pitching topic as its primary story -- to address the latest closer news.

This week's top relief-pitching story comes from the Chicago Cubs, where incumbent closer Carlos Marmol already appears on the verge of losing his gig. Handed the second-easiest save chance by definition -- the three-run-lead, one-inning assignment (the three-inning save rule is classified the "easiest") -- on Opening Day, Marmol couldn't convert. He threw just nine strikes in 19 pitches and zero of four first-pitch strikes, hitting Andrew McCutchen with a pitch and allowing a Pedro Alvarez RBI single and Gaby Sanchez to walk. Marmol was promptly yanked, Cubs manager Dale Sveum playing lefty-righty matchups to get James Russell to retire Neil Walker and Kyuji Fujikawa to retire Russell Martin. Fujikawa recorded his first save for his two pitches of work.

This comes on the heels of an awful spring by Marmol -- 6.97 ERA and 7.84 walks per nine innings in 12 appearances -- as well as a 2011-12 regular-season performance combined in which he had a 3.76 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He's among the most ill-equipped to handle high-leverage chores because of his poor control, and regardless of Sveum's supportive comments -- he told the Chicago Tribune afterward that "[Marmol] is still the closer" -- Marmol's status as the team's primary ninth-inning reliever will probably be short-lived.

Fujikawa, signed to a two-year, $9.5 million deal this winter to serve as closer insurance, is well worth adding in any leagues in which he's available. His strength is far greater command; he averaged 2.29 walks per nine and 5.43 K's per walk during his career in Japan and had 10 K's compared to four walks during his eight Cactus League appearances.

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[h=4]TOP 150 PITCHERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For starter- or reliever-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column. Previous Ranking ("Prev Rnk") is ESPN's preseason ranking among all pitchers.

<CENTER>Rnk </CENTER>	Player	<CENTER>Team </CENTER>	<CENTER>Pos Rnk </CENTER>	<CENTER>Prev Rnk </CENTER>	<CENTER>Rnk </CENTER>	Player	<CENTER>Team </CENTER>	<CENTER>Pos Rnk </CENTER>	<CENTER>Prev Rnk </CENTER>
1	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	SP1	2		76	Kenley Jansen	LAD	RP20	74
2	Justin Verlander	Det	SP2	1		77	Kyle Lohse	Mil	SP57	100
3	Felix Hernandez	Sea	SP3	3		78	Edwin Jackson	ChC	SP58	76
4	Stephen Strasburg	Wsh	SP4	4		79	Ryan Dempster	Bos	SP59	88
5	David Price	TB	SP5	5		80	Alexi Ogando	Tex	SP60	70
6	Matt Cain	SF	SP6	6		81	Ernesto Frieri	LAA	RP21	87
7	Cole Hamels	Phi	SP7	8		82	Paul Maholm	Atl	SP61	102
8	Cliff Lee	Phi	SP8	7		83	Steve Cishek	Mia	RP22	85
9	Gio Gonzalez	Wsh	SP9	11		84	Brandon McCarthy	Ari	SP62	83
10	Madison Bumgarner	SF	SP10	13		85	Clay Buchholz	Bos	SP63	93
11	Jered Weaver	LAA	SP11	9		86	Jason Grilli	Pit	RP23	71
12	R.A. Dickey	Tor	SP12	15		87	Josh Beckett	LAD	SP64	86
13	Adam Wainwright	StL	SP13	12		88	Jason Motte	StL	RP24	54
14	Yu Darvish	Tex	SP14	14		89	Grant Balfour	Oak	RP25	65
15	Johnny Cueto	Cin	SP15	18		90	Marco Estrada	Mil	SP65	89
16	Craig Kimbrel	Atl	RP1	10		91	Casey Janssen	Tor	RP26	82
17	Chris Sale	CWS	SP16	17		92	Wandy Rodriguez	Pit	SP66	91
18	CC Sabathia	NYY	SP17	16		93	Bobby Parnell	NYM	RP27	103
19	Aroldis Chapman	Cin	RP2	20		94	Julio Teheran	Atl	SP67	124
20	Mat Latos	Cin	SP18	19		95	Jason Vargas	LAA	SP68	97
21	Zack Greinke	LAD	SP19	21		96	Wei-Yin Chen	Bal	SP69	94
22	Jordan Zimmermann	Wsh	SP20	23		97	Brandon League	LAD	RP28	92
23	Matt Moore	TB	SP21	25		98	Phil Hughes	NYY	SP70	99
24	Max Scherzer	Det	SP22	28		99	Kyuji Fujikawa	ChC	RP29	122
25	James Shields	KC	SP23	26		100	Mitchell Boggs	StL	RP30	136
26	Jonathan Papelbon	Phi	RP3	22		101	Chris Tillman	Bal	SP71	111
27	Kris Medlen	Atl	SP24	24		102	Ryan Madson	LAA	RP31	79
28	Yovani Gallardo	Mil	SP25	27		103	Shelby Miller	StL	SP72	101
29	Rafael Soriano	Wsh	RP4	29		104	Jonathan Broxton	Cin	RP32	115
30	Josh Johnson	Tor	SP26	37		105	Hisashi Iwakuma	Sea	SP73	95
31	Fernando Rodney	TB	RP5	30		106	Jose Veras	Hou	RP33	104
32	Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	SP27	38		107	Matt Garza	ChC	SP74	80
33	Mariano Rivera	NYY	RP6	32		108	Vinnie Pestano	Cle	RP34	98
34	Brandon Morrow	Tor	SP28	31		109	Dillon Gee	NYM	SP75	140
35	J.J. Putz	Ari	RP7	34		110	James McDonald	Pit	SP76	105
36	Doug Fister	Det	SP29	41		111	Drew Storen	Wsh	RP35	106
37	Ian Kennedy	Ari	SP30	33		112	Hyun-Jin Ryu	LAD	SP77	132
38	Jon Lester	Bos	SP31	39		113	Bud Norris	Hou	SP78	107
39	Joe Nathan	Tex	RP8	35		114	Ryan Cook	Oak	RP36	108
40	Jake Peavy	CWS	SP32	42		115	Ivan Nova	NYY	SP79	109
41	Anibal Sanchez	Det	SP33	43		116	Sergio Santos	Tor	RP37	110
42	Jim Johnson	Bal	RP9	47		117	Ross Detwiler	Wsh	SP80	112
43	Jonathon Niese	NYM	SP34	44		118	Jason Hammel	Bal	SP81	127
44	Dan Haren	Wsh	SP35	48		119	Carlos Marmol	ChC	RP38	96
45	Brett Anderson	Oak	SP36	49		120	Shaun Marcum	NYM	SP82	113
46	Addison Reed	CWS	RP10	50		121	Brandon Beachy	Atl	SP83	114
47	Jeff Samardzija	ChC	SP37	51		122	Tommy Hanson	LAA	SP84	119
48	Lance Lynn	StL	SP38	56		123	Andrew Bailey	Bos	RP39	180
49	Tim Lincecum	SF	SP39	40		124	Mark Buehrle	Tor	SP85	116
50	Greg Holland	KC	RP11	53		125	Chad Billingsley	LAD	SP86	118
51	Jarrod Parker	Oak	SP40	58		126	Phil Coke	Det	RP40	150
52	Roy Halladay	Phi	SP41	46		127	Gavin Floyd	CWS	SP87	120
53	Sergio Romo	SF	RP12	52		128	Sean Marshall	Cin	RP41	146
54	John Axford	Mil	RP13	45		129	Rick Porcello	Det	SP88	121
55	Huston Street	SD	RP14	57		130	Tyler Clippard	Wsh	RP42	123
56	Jeremy Hellickson	TB	SP42	61		131	Andy Pettitte	NYY	SP89	125
57	Joel Hanrahan	Bos	RP15	36		132	Bartolo Colon	Oak	SP90	149
58	Homer Bailey	Cin	SP43	59		133	Ricky Nolasco	Mia	SP91	126
59	Derek Holland	Tex	SP44	67		134	Patrick Corbin	Ari	SP92	197
60	Mike Minor	Atl	SP45	66		135	David Hernandez	Ari	RP43	128
61	Rafael Betancourt	Col	RP16	62		136	Joaquin Benoit	Det	RP44	129
62	C.J. Wilson	LAA	SP46	55		137	Felix Doubront	Bos	SP93	170
63	Jaime Garcia	StL	SP47	77		138	Wily Peralta	Mil	SP94	166
64	Matt Harvey	NYM	SP48	60		139	Frank Francisco	NYM	RP45	139
65	Matt Harrison	Tex	SP49	64		140	Vance Worley	Min	SP95	133
66	Alex Cobb	TB	SP50	90		141	Koji Uehara	Bos	RP46	135
67	Tom Wilhelmsen	Sea	RP17	84		142	Clayton Richard	SD	SP96	138
68	Ryan Vogelsong	SF	SP51	68		143	Justin Masterson	Cle	SP97	117
69	Tim Hudson	Atl	SP52	63		144	Luke Gregerson	SD	RP47	143
70	Tommy Milone	Oak	SP53	81		145	Mike Fiers	Mil	SP98	144
71	Chris Perez	Cle	RP18	69		146	Sean Doolittle	Oak	RP48	145
72	A.J. Burnett	Pit	SP54	73		147	Jose Fernandez	Mia	SP99	362
73	Glen Perkins	Min	RP19	72		148	Jake McGee	TB	RP49	147
74	Trevor Cahill	Ari	SP55	75		149	David Robertson	NYY	RP50	148
75	Wade Miley	Ari	SP56	78		150	Wade Davis	KC	RP51	157

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[HacheMan]

Should we be concerned about Sabathia?

Eric Karabell

Tags: Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy, Pitchers, Eric KarabellFantasy: CC Sabathia[h=6]NEXT VIDEO

[/h]

• Fantasy: CC Sabathia[h=5]Fantasy: CC Sabathia[/h]Eric Karabell discusses whether you should be worried about CC Sabathia this fantasy season.Tags: Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy, Pitchers, Eric Karabell
  
• Fantasy: Cubs' Closer Situation[h=5]Fantasy: Cubs' Closer Situation[/h]Eric Karabell discusses what to expect from the Cubs' closer situation.Tags: Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy, Closers, Bullpen, Eric Karabell

Only 13 starting pitchers are going earlier in ESPN average live drafts than New York Yankees left-hander CC Sabathia, and it's certainly possible that after Monday's somewhat erratic performance, that figure will, like his waistline (and many others') around Thanksgiving, only grow. Perhaps Sabathia's name will even be floated in trade talks around your leagues as well. However, even after Sabathia permitted eight hits, four walks and four runs in the 8-2 loss to the Boston Red Sox, it's time to remind people that we've been here before with Carsten Charles Sabathia, and it usually has worked out OK.

For example, who can forget when Sabathia was coming off his 19-7 Cy Young award-winning 2007 season for the Cleveland Indians, and he couldn't get anyone out in April 2008. Fantasy owners couldn't run fast enough, citing fatigue, weight and his lofty expectations, despite our pleas for patience. Sabathia's April ERA finished at 7.88, his WHIP 1.78. From that point on, Sabathia dominated, boasting a 1.95 ERA, most of it for the playoff-bound Milwaukee Brewers. If you want more recent results, check out last season, when Sabathia's April ERA was 4.58. From May 1 on, his ERA was a mere 3.11, hardly a harbinger of pending doom.

<OFFER>Put simply, this is a pitcher who tends to starts slowly, and his owners must be patient. Who knows, maybe spring training just isn't enough for him. In his standout career, Sabathia has a 4.13 April ERA and 1.31 WHIP. He's considerably better in the other months, which gives credence to his post-game comments Monday: "I'm sure the velocity will keep coming back and the arm strength will keep building up the more I throw," Sabathia said. "Healthwise, I feel fine, elbow, shoulder and everything."</OFFER>

Hey, I believe him, even though his velocity was down a bit more than normal. Sabathia had minor elbow surgery this offseason, and threw a mere 10 spring innings, but nobody around the Yankees seems particularly concerned. Frankly, if you own Sabathia in the first place, you've probably been ignoring much of the pessimistic talk about him. I'm surprised he's being selected ahead of R.A. Dickey, Chris Sale and Zack Greinke, among others, but he still made my top 20. After all, while Sabathia made only 28 starts last season, tying the lowest season mark of his career, issues can easily be blamed on left elbow soreness, which theoretically is no longer an issue.

Perhaps it's career overuse scaring many; only Mark Buehrle has tossed more regular-season innings since Sabathia became a big leaguer in 2001, and Buehrle hasn't thrown 107 1/3 postseason innings to boot. Sabathia is 32, and the pitcher ranked right behind him in innings pitched over the past 12 seasons is having his own issues in Philadelphia. However, what's going on with Phillies right-hander Roy Halladay really has no bearing on Sabathia. Sure, pitchers get old at some point, even top ones, but Sabathia's spring velocity wasn't watched with concern.

Sabathia isn't the only recommended starting pitcher who has traditionally had trouble in the season's first month. Mark Simon from ESPN Stats & Info confirms that Gavin Floyd, Clay Buchholz and Matt Harrison each have career April ERAs on the wrong side of 5.00. Defending NL Cy Young winner Dickey boasts a 4.95 career ERA in April. Brandon McCarthy (4.72), Edwin Jackson (4.67), Ian Kennedy (4.64), Max Scherzer (4.55), Ryan Dempster (4.55) and yes, even the spectacular Justin Verlander (4.37), have had their own issues in April. If Verlander is a slow starter, certainly we can give Sabathia a pass. His career track shows that he deserves one.


Box score bits (NL): Don't be fooled by how well Miami Marlins right-hander Ricky Nolasco pitched in Washington on Monday. He permitted only three hits, just like counterpart Stephen Strasburg, though two were Bryce Harper solo home runs. Nolasco consistently underperforms, as his career 4.49 ERA shows, and I think we can presume run support will be an issue. … What a great sign it was to see New York Mets third baseman David Wright stealing two bases. What was not a great sign: The Mets scored 11 runs on 13 hits, and first baseman Ike Davis went 0-for-5 with four strikeouts. … Speaking of the Mets, for really deep leagues, I'd take Collin Cowgill over Marlon Byrd, but that's a tepid endorsement. … It didn't take Chicago Cubs closer Carlos Marmol long to show that his awful March seems accurate. He recorded one out in a save spot Monday, throwing just nine of 19 pitches for strikes. Kyuji Fujikawa came on and earned the save. Still, manager Dale Sveum claims Marmol remains the closer. … Dexter Fowler hit a game-tying home run off Brewers closer John Axford. Last year the Colorado Rockies outfielder hit 13 home runs, just three on the road. I want to believe a breakout is pending.

Box score bits (AL): It was a nice debut for Red Sox rookie outfielder Jackie Bradley. For one, the lefty hitter started against the lefty Sabathia. He drew three walks overall, scoring twice. In a year when Jacoby Ellsbury gets big money elsewhere, I can see Bradley leading off for Boston. … Chicago White Sox catcher Tyler Flowers accounted for the lone run in Chris Sale's 1-0 win over Kansas City, with the first of what I think will be 20-plus home runs. He's certainly worth adding in multi-catcher formats. … It's early, but I never buy the every-other-year theme on players such as Alex Rios. He singled twice, walked and stole a base Monday. Gotta love that! … The Tigers' first save chance went to lefty Phil Coke, and he retired Minnesota Twins Justin Morneau and Ryan Doumit. Add him if you like, but this is a "matchup bullpen" for now, with Joaquin Benoit and Octavio Dotel seemingly the relevant right-handers over Al Alburquerque, who pitched in the seventh inning, for now. And don't worry about Verlander throwing only 91 pitches over five innings. It's a non-issue.

 

[HacheMan]

Projecting Reds OF after Ludwick injury

Eric Karabell

for catchers on opposing teams, everyone seems to love Cincinnati Reds minor league speed demon Billy Hamilton, and for good reason. He has the potential to be baseball's first 100-steal guy since the days of Rickey Henderson and Vince Coleman. Who wouldn't love that? And wouldn't you know it, early in the Reds' Opening Day, extra-inning loss against the Los Angeles Angels on Monday -- yeah, they're doing the interleague thing all season now -- Reds left fielder Ryan Ludwick suffered a dislocated right shoulder on an awkward slide at third base, fueling speculation that Hamilton would soon be altering the look of fantasy leagues this week.

But I don't see it happening. Even if Ludwick is out long term -- and as of now we still don't know the degree of the injury or whether surgery will be required -- Hamilton needs more time in the minor leagues, and he's likely to get as much as he needs. Yes, the speed he possesses is hard to fathom. I've seen it in person numerous times, from the Futures Game at All-Star weekend last year to the Arizona Fall League and spring training, and Hamilton is crazy fast. But he also didn't look crazy ready for the big leagues in his limited playing time this spring (.192 batting average, 9 strikeouts in 26 at-bats). He needs work at the plate and in learning center field before he deserves a promotion.

<OFFER>In this case, the spring stats told an accurate story, not to mention the moves the Reds made to block his promotion this winter. This is, after all, a shortstop trying to learn a new position. Plus, Reds manager Dusty Baker, who generally gets what he wants (see Chapman, Aroldis), hasn't been the greatest defender of young players in the past. Look for the Reds to promote unexciting outfielders Derrick Robinson or Donald Lutz first, and they can sit around yearning for playing time, along with Xavier Paul, while Chris Heisey gets his opportunity.</OFFER>

Anyway, not to be the bearer of bad news, but I think Hamilton will remain at Triple-A Louisville for months, perhaps until September. He can run roughshod on the basepaths there, work further on his plate discipline and physical strength, and prepare for a mid- to late-season promotion, if opportunity arises. Hamilton is owned in 2.3 percent of ESPN standard mixed leagues, and it's likely that figure will see some bump in the coming days as speculation runs rampant. I don't see it happening, but it's enough of a story to at least discuss in this space.

What I do see happening, however, is Heisey becoming Cincy's new center fielder, with Shin-Soo Choo moving over to left field, and that's actually a good thing. Not to be cruel, given that an injury forced this arrangement, but the Reds and their fly ball pitchers might actually be better off. Heisey is an experienced center fielder; Choo certainly is not. Problem solved. And Heisey can hit a bit, ya know. In 2011, he smacked 18 home runs in only 308 plate appearances, and before you think this is just a right-handed hitter who takes advantage of poor lefties, Heisey hit 17 of those 18 home runs off right-handers. The skills are there for him to be a productive, dependable and defensively competent player.


It's a bit premature to recommend Heisey in 10-team standard leagues because, as noted in Monday's blog entry on Boston Red Sox rookie "phenom" Jackie Bradley Jr., there are 60 outfielders owned in more than 88 percent of these leagues, and I'm not cutting any of them for Heisey (or the very patient Bradley). In a shallow league, there are enough outfielders to go around. In deeper formats, however, it's worth noting that Heisey is certainly capable of hitting another 18 home runs and stealing the occasional base, and that he should play pretty much all the time for the foreseeable future. He's not going to hit for a high batting average, not with the walk and strikeout rates he has exhibited in the past, but then again, if Heisey were doing well in those areas, Ludwick wouldn't have starting for the Reds in the first place.

As for Ludwick, owned in 9.9 percent of ESPN standard mixed leagues, feel free to jettison him to free agency. Last year, Ludwick hit .275 and smacked 26 home runs, certainly numbers worth owning even in a 10-team format, but we at ESPN Fantasy aren't projecting those numbers again. In shallow leagues, Heisey isn't the best addition. But there are other replacement options. Among those outfielders available in more than half of ESPN's standard leagues, I'd go with versatile Matt Carpenter, underrated David Murphy, safe Jon Jay, emerging Lorenzo Cain, enticing Starling Marte, palatable Domonic Brown and the aforementioned Bradley, in that order.

 

[HacheMan]

Strikeouts up, averages down

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Do you feel that cool breeze?


It might not be the unseasonably cold April weather; it might be major league hitters' rising swing-and-miss rates. While we caution the dangers of interpreting small samples, through three days of baseball the trend is stark: The Major League Baseball strikeout rate is 23.7 percent, batting average is .217, and swing-and-miss rate is 25.2 percent. Each one would represent an all-time worst.

That's not to suggest that we should extrapolate those paces over a full year, or that the final 2013 leaguewide numbers will settle at close to those numbers. But considering the game had previously exhibited large annual increases to its strikeout rate entering the year, might we be about to witness the first season in baseball history of a 20 percent overall whiff rate?

Baseball has set a new single-season record in the category in five consecutive seasons: Beginning with 2008's 17.5 percent, the number has risen each year, going from 18.0 (2009) to 18.5 (2010) to 18.6 (2011), before settling just beneath the 20 percent threshold in 2012, at 19.8 percent.

Here's why that matters to fantasy owners: As strikeout rates have risen, the leaguewide batting average has dropped accordingly, declining in six consecutive seasons. We have reached a point where there's a legitimate threat of the game's first sub-.250 campaign since 1972. That requires us to lower our bar for what constitutes a "good" batting average -- a point made in our Draft Kit -- perhaps by a larger margin than anyone could have anticipated.

Despite the "small sample" caveat, one reason why the 2013 numbers bear watching in the coming days is due to the game's historical tendency for swing-and-miss numbers to rise with the midsummer temperatures. The chart below illustrates this, with March/April leaguewide numbers highlighted:

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>

Month	<CENTER>K%</CENTER>	<CENTER>Chas%</CENTER>	<CENTER>AVG</CENTER>	<CENTER>BABIP</CENTER>	<CENTER>SLUG</CENTER>	<CENTER>BB%</CENTER>	<CENTER>HR%</CENTER>	<CENTER>Swng%</CENTER>	<CENTER>Miss%</CENTER>
Apr 2010	18.4%	27.4%	.256	.296	.406	9.4%	36.2	43.8%	20.8%
May 2010	18.1%	27.8%	.259	.298	.404	8.8%	36.6	44.6%	20.2%
Jun 2010	18.0%	28.5%	.263	.303	.405	8.2%	37.2	45.4%	20.5%
Jul 2010	18.3%	28.8%	.260	.297	.411	8.1%	33.6	45.7%	20.9%
Aug 2010	18.8%	28.2%	.257	.297	.403	8.1%	35.6	45.3%	20.8%
Sep/Oct 2010	19.3%	28.2%	.250	.291	.390	8.5%	36.1	45.2%	21.7%
Mar/Apr 2011	18.6%	27.8%	.251	.290	.391	8.6%	37.4	44.9%	21.0%
May 2011	18.1%	28.2%	.253	.292	.389	8.4%	39.3	45.5%	20.4%
Jun 2011	18.2%	29.1%	.253	.291	.391	7.9%	38.7	45.7%	20.8%
Jul 2011	18.8%	29.2%	.257	.299	.399	7.9%	38.0	46.2%	20.9%
Aug 2011	18.7%	29.0%	.261	.299	.418	7.6%	32.0	46.0%	20.9%
Sep 2011	19.4%	28.9%	.255	.298	.405	8.2%	34.3	45.8%	21.7%
Mar/Apr 2012	19.3%	28.0%	.249	.290	.395	8.2%	35.9	44.8%	21.8%
May 2012	19.6%	28.2%	.255	.297	.408	8.3%	33.7	45.2%	21.6%
Jun 2012	19.8%	28.4%	.257	.299	.410	7.9%	32.4	45.7%	21.6%
Jul 2012	19.9%	28.9%	.256	.298	.411	7.9%	32.1	46.1%	22.1%
Aug 2012	19.5%	28.7%	.257	.298	.407	7.4%	33.5	46.2%	21.9%
Sep/Oct 2012	20.5%	28.9%	.253	.298	.400	8.1%	33.8	46.1%	22.8%
Apr 2013	23.7%	27.7%	.217	.270	.341	8.2%	41.8	44.8%	25.2%

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>

In each of those three seasons, all of them classified "pitchers' years," the leaguewide strikeout rate (K%), chase rate (Chas%), swing rate (Swng%) and swing-and-miss rate (Miss%) were higher after the All-Star break than in the month of April. That said, batting averages, BABIPs and well-hit averages (rate of at-bats that resulted in hard contact) were also higher, hinting one of two things: Either hitters made better contact as they got into their midseason rhythm, or rising temperatures helped boost success levels on balls in play. (Both probably contributed.)

Still, if the annual April batting average declined in each of the past three seasons, and the final-season MLB average followed the same pattern, then this April's batting average bears careful watching. Could it be that this season's April batting average might finish at .240, and the 2013 full-year mark at .248? It's possible, and if it does, that's going to radically alter fantasy player valuation in the category.

Let's use our own Player Rater to illustrate. Using only batting-average contributions, let's isolate the five players whose number in the category was closest to zero on the Player Rater -- meaning that player's batting average neither hurt nor helped you. On the left, are the five closest to zero from 2009, and on the right, the five closest from 2012:

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>

Player	<CENTER>Team</CENTER>	<CENTER>AB</CENTER>	<CENTER>H</CENTER>	<CENTER>AVG</CENTER>	<CENTER></CENTER>	Player	<CENTER>Team</CENTER>	<CENTER>AB</CENTER>	<CENTER>H</CENTER>	<CENTER>AVG</CENTER>
Jason Bay	Bos	531	142	.267		Nelson Cruz	Tex	585	152	.260
Elvis Andrus	Tex	480	128	.267		Kyle Seager	Sea	594	154	.259
Daniel Murphy	NYM	508	135	.266		Freddie Freeman	Atl	540	140	.259
Dexter Fowler	Col	433	115	.266		Coco Crisp	Oak	455	118	.259
Ryan Ludwick	StL	486	129	.265		Jason Kipnis	Cle	591	152	.257
TOTALS	2438	649	.266		TOTALS	2765	716	.259

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>

Besides the mere seven-point batting average differential between these groups, notice the 327 at-bat differential. That means 65 additional at-bats per player for that .259 batting average to influence your fantasy team's performance in the category, meaning the batting-average differential might have been wider if these samples had accrued identical at-bats. In addition, the group on the right shows how little harm a 600 at-bat, .260-hitting player would've done to your team in 2012. That most certainly could not have been said 10 years ago.

This rising strikeout trend was what drove my Tout Wars strategy, one in which I punted batting average in an attempt to capture first place in each of the other four primary rotisserie categories. Remember, a few lucky bounces can drive the batting average category, stealing you a handful of points even if your post-draft projection in the category was one. And if leaguewide batting averages drop -- and you've picked the right players -- your chances of more than one point increase.

To isolate these "batting average killers," I took a page from Larry Schechter's League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) strategy, in which he also punted batting average in that league's AL-only session. Schecter's claim was that, in order to isolate "batting average killers" who provide the greatest contribution in the other four categories, calculate the player's projected dollar value as if batting average was not part of the rotisserie equation.

There's an easy way to do this: By using our Custom Dollar Value Generator.

Comparing projected dollar values for players in a 10-team, ESPN standard mixed league with and without batting average, the following players would've gained the most auction value. Players I bought in Tout Wars are highlighted:

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>

Player	<CENTER>Team</CENTER>	<CENTER>Gain</CENTER>	<CENTER>AB</CENTER>	<CENTER>HR</CENTER>	<CENTER>RBI</CENTER>	<CENTER>SB</CENTER>	<CENTER>R</CENTER>	<CENTER>AVG</CENTER>
Adam Dunn	CWS	$10	533	33	89	1	77	.212
Mark Reynolds	Cle	$8	493	29	78	4	75	.221
Danny Espinosa	Wsh	$5	590	20	63	19	80	.242
Justin Maxwell	Hou	$5	454	22	65	14	66	.231
B.J. Upton	Atl	$5	575	23	77	31	84	.245
Dan Uggla	Atl	$5	563	27	86	3	91	.243
Jason Heyward	Atl	$4	602	30	96	22	93	.261
Curtis Granderson	NYY	$4	464	30	82	10	88	.246
Desmond Jennings	TB	$4	592	15	54	36	98	.252
Pedro Alvarez	Pit	$4	544	32	91	2	69	.250
Josh Reddick	Oak	$4	575	25	76	8	82	.254
Colby Rasmus	Tor	$4	565	24	78	6	86	.244
Rickie Weeks	Mil	$4	564	22	63	13	89	.250
Jose Bautista	Tor	$3	508	41	108	8	98	.268
Jay Bruce	Cin	$3	574	38	108	9	95	.267
Bryce Harper	Wsh	$3	586	27	93	22	87	.266
Ryan Howard	Phi	$3	525	34	108	1	76	.259
Mark Trumbo	LAA	$3	568	32	97	6	70	.262
Carlos Santana	Cle	$3	536	26	87	5	81	.257
Jason Kipnis	Cle	$3	606	15	70	25	90	.257
Carlos Gomez	Mil	$3	467	17	46	33	74	.248

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>

Here's how this pertains to those of you who have already drafted: Remember, strategy doesn't become irrelevant once the draft concludes. In-season strategy is every bit as relevant to fantasy success, and it's critical to keep up with changing trends in the game -- like this potential change we're seeing.

If you own any of the players in the above chart, don't be so concerned about their low batting averages, which might soon look a lot closer to league-average than you might have initially anticipated. And if you find yourself considering a trade for any in the coming weeks, take a quick glance at the leaguewide strikeout rates and batting average, to make sure you're not underrating them.

[h=3]The rankings[/h]
This season's Hit Parade expands its rankings to 150 hitters, to provide fantasy owners in ESPN standard mixed leagues more than enough ranked players to populate a fantasy roster. But we're also adding a new feature beginning with today: You can now see all players -- including starting and relief pitchers -- ranked by position on one page at this link.

Rankings will be updated along with the week's new editions of Sixty Feet Six Inches (Tuesday) and Hit Parade (Wednesday), meaning that starting and relief pitchers will receive their weekly updates on Tuesday, and hitters will receive their weekly updates on Wednesday.

The top 150 hitters overall can be found in the chart below each week.

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
[h=4]TOP 150 HITTERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column. Previous Ranking ("Prev Rnk") is ESPN's preseason ranking among all hitters.

<CENTER># </CENTER>	Player	<CENTER>Team </CENTER>	<CENTER>Pos Rk </CENTER>	<CENTER>Prv Rk </CENTER>	<CENTER># </CENTER>	Player	<CENTER>Team </CENTER>	<CENTER>Pos Rk </CENTER>	<CENTER>Prv Rk </CENTER>
1	Ryan Braun	Mil	OF1	1		76	Neil Walker	Pit	2B8	76
2	Miguel Cabrera	Det	3B1	3		77	Angel Pagan	SF	OF33	73
3	Mike Trout	LAA	OF2	2		78	Brett Gardner	NYY	OF34	79
4	Andrew McCutchen	Pit	OF3	5		79	Hunter Pence	SF	OF35	77
5	Matt Kemp	LAD	OF4	6		80	Nelson Cruz	Tex	OF36	84
6	Robinson Cano	NYY	2B1	4		81	Ben Revere	Phi	OF37	86
7	Carlos Gonzalez	Col	OF5	8		82	Rickie Weeks	Mil	2B9	94
8	Albert Pujols	LAA	1B1	7		83	Chris Davis	Bal	OF38	102
9	Joey Votto	Cin	1B2	9		84	Andre Ethier	LAD	OF39	96
10	Prince Fielder	Det	1B3	10		85	Alcides Escobar	KC	SS9	90
11	Justin Upton	Atl	OF6	12		86	Michael Morse	Sea	OF40	99
12	Jose Bautista	Tor	OF7	18		87	Chase Utley	Phi	2B10	92
13	Giancarlo Stanton	Mia	OF8	13		88	Alejandro De Aza	CWS	OF41	78
14	Jason Heyward	Atl	OF9	22		89	Ryan Howard	Phi	1B13	88
15	David Wright	NYM	3B2	15		90	Adam LaRoche	Wsh	1B14	95
16	Buster Posey	SF	C1	14		91	Dexter Fowler	Col	OF42	108
17	Evan Longoria	TB	3B3	19		92	Paul Konerko	CWS	1B15	87
18	Troy Tulowitzki	Col	SS1	11		93	Howard Kendrick	LAA	2B11	82
19	Edwin Encarnacion	Tor	1B4	24		94	Josh Reddick	Oak	OF43	111
20	Adrian Beltre	Tex	3B4	16		95	Todd Frazier	Cin	3B11	106
21	Josh Hamilton	LAA	OF10	17		96	Nick Swisher	Cle	OF44	105
22	Ian Kinsler	Tex	2B2	21		97	David Ortiz	Bos	DH1	81
23	Dustin Pedroia	Bos	2B3	20		98	Mike Moustakas	KC	3B12	93
24	Starlin Castro	ChC	SS2	26		99	Torii Hunter	Det	OF45	91
25	Adam Jones	Bal	OF11	25		100	Pedro Alvarez	Pit	3B13	98
26	Jose Reyes	Tor	SS3	23		101	Miguel Montero	Ari	C7	107
27	Jay Bruce	Cin	OF12	27		102	David Freese	StL	3B14	103
28	Jacoby Ellsbury	Bos	OF13	32		103	Danny Espinosa	Wsh	2B12	83
29	Billy Butler	KC	1B5	29		104	Salvador Perez	KC	C8	124
30	B.J. Upton	Atl	OF14	34		105	Kendrys Morales	Sea	1B16	116
31	Bryce Harper	Wsh	OF15	28		106	Kyle Seager	Sea	3B15	101
32	Matt Holliday	StL	OF16	33		107	Derek Jeter	NYY	SS10	114
33	Brandon Phillips	Cin	2B4	31		108	Nick Markakis	Bal	OF46	136
34	Michael Bourn	Cle	OF17	41		109	Jason Kubel	Ari	OF47	97
35	Adrian Gonzalez	LAD	1B6	30		110	Manny Machado	Bal	3B16	109
36	Austin Jackson	Det	OF18	43		111	Will Middlebrooks	Bos	3B17	115
37	Desmond Jennings	TB	OF19	47		112	Michael Cuddyer	Col	OF48	134
38	Ben Zobrist	TB	OF20	38		113	Marco Scutaro	SF	2B13	112
39	Ian Desmond	Wsh	SS4	45		114	Coco Crisp	Oak	OF49	110
40	Jason Kipnis	Cle	2B5	42		115	Wilin Rosario	Col	C9	113
41	Ryan Zimmerman	Wsh	3B5	36		116	Jayson Werth	Wsh	OF50	121
42	Paul Goldschmidt	Ari	1B7	49		117	Mark Teixeira	NYY	1B17	119
43	Yoenis Cespedes	Oak	OF21	37		118	Kevin Youkilis	NYY	3B18	120
44	Jimmy Rollins	Phi	SS5	53		119	Ichiro Suzuki	NYY	OF51	118
45	Allen Craig	StL	1B8	44		120	Lance Berkman	Tex	1B18	122
46	Yadier Molina	StL	C2	35		121	Carl Crawford	LAD	OF52	89
47	Elvis Andrus	Tex	SS6	61		122	Dan Uggla	Atl	2B14	104
48	Alex Rios	CWS	OF22	51		123	Cameron Maybin	SD	OF53	126
49	Matt Wieters	Bal	C3	39		124	J.J. Hardy	Bal	SS11	100
50	Joe Mauer	Min	C4	46		125	Norichika Aoki	Mil	OF54	129
51	Shin-Soo Choo	Cin	OF23	54		126	Justin Morneau	Min	1B19	135
52	Pablo Sandoval	SF	3B6	55		127	Daniel Murphy	NYM	2B15	141
53	Carlos Santana	Cle	C5	52		128	Jonathan Lucroy	Mil	C10	132
54	Aramis Ramirez	Mil	3B7	48		129	Everth Cabrera	SD	SS12	138
55	Alex Gordon	KC	OF24	56		130	Dayan Viciedo	CWS	OF55	130
56	Aaron Hill	Ari	2B6	50		131	Andrelton Simmons	Atl	SS13	127
57	Brett Lawrie	Tor	3B8	40		132	Emilio Bonifacio	Tor	OF56	148
58	Asdrubal Cabrera	Cle	SS7	65		133	Mike Napoli	Bos	C11	85
59	Freddie Freeman	Atl	1B9	59		134	Jesus Montero	Sea	C12	128
60	Jose Altuve	Hou	2B7	57		135	Jed Lowrie	Oak	SS14	155
61	Carlos Gomez	Mil	OF25	66		136	Corey Hart	Mil	1B20	123
62	Chase Headley	SD	3B9	64		137	Brandon Belt	SF	1B21	142
63	Mark Trumbo	LAA	OF26	71		138	Alexei Ramirez	CWS	SS15	117
64	Josh Willingham	Min	OF27	72		139	Alfonso Soriano	ChC	OF57	125
65	Ike Davis	NYM	1B10	62		140	Michael Young	Phi	1B22	131
66	Martin Prado	Ari	OF28	60		141	Lorenzo Cain	KC	OF58	150
67	Curtis Granderson	NYY	OF29	67		142	Trevor Plouffe	Min	3B19	139
68	Melky Cabrera	Tor	OF30	63		143	Andy Dirks	Det	OF59	199
69	Eric Hosmer	KC	1B11	68		144	Garrett Jones	Pit	1B23	137
70	Victor Martinez	Det	C6	58		145	Domonic Brown	Phi	OF60	185
71	Shane Victorino	Bos	OF31	74		146	Adam Dunn	CWS	1B24	140
72	Hanley Ramirez	LAD	3B10	70		147	Starling Marte	Pit	OF61	164
73	Carlos Beltran	StL	OF32	80		148	Brandon Moss	Oak	1B25	144
74	Anthony Rizzo	ChC	1B12	69		149	Zack Cozart	Cin	SS16	146
75	Erick Aybar	LAA	SS8	75		150	Chris Carter	Hou	1B26	169

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[HacheMan]

[h=1]Believe in prospects now?[/h][h=3]Fernandez, Maurer among young pitchers getting early look in rotation[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Two baseball stories begin their first chapters this week: Jose Fernandez is set to make his major league debut for the Miami Marlins on Sunday, Brandon Maurer his for the Seattle Mariners on Thursday.

(Obligatory pause to allow you to regain your composure, knowing that you, like most any fantasy owner, cannot contain your excitement when a prospect debuts.)

Understandably, headlines like Fernandez's anticipated debut -- the freshest among prospect-related news, so we'll discuss him first -- send us scrambling to the waiver wire. The proverbial "getting in on the ground floor" is an irresistible urge for fantasy owners, with no greater evidence than this: In the four FAAB-bidding leagues in which I play (or follow, to include the League of Alternative Baseball Reality-NL results), Fernandez cost an average of 28.3 percent of the winning team's seasonal FAAB budget and was the most expensive player purchased in all but one. The exception was my local NL-only league, in which Kyle Lohse took those honors.

Fernandez's prospect credentials are stunning: He was the No. 14 pick overall in the 2011 amateur draft. He had an astonishing 1.75 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and .191 batting average allowed in 25 starts in the minors in 2012. He was tabbed Keith Law's No. 6 pitching prospect and No. 16 overall, as well as Baseball America's No. 2 pitching and No. 5 prospect overall, this preseason. And he has a mid-90s fastball with a curveball that Law himself says "would miss right-handers' bats in the majors today."

But before we embrace this Fernandez lovefest, let's undergo a brief reality check: This is a 20-year-old with only 11 starts in high Class A ball, none higher, who made only one appearance of two innings facing mostly minor leaguers during this year's Grapefruit League action. His promotion is a bold move by the Marlins; the reality is that expecting much from him this season might be too bold.

There is no doubt that Fernandez should have cost a considerable chunk of any fantasy team's FAAB budget, based solely upon his scouting reports and high -- albeit potentially distant -- statistical ceiling. Now the question becomes: To what degree should you trust him, or Maurer, for that matter, in the early weeks of 2013?

Let's allow history to provide us an outline.

Using a 10-year span of prospect reports -- we'll use Baseball America's annual Top 100 prospects for this study, to grant us the largest sample possible -- I've analyzed the start-by-start, early-career performances of 80 pitchers who managed to place as one of the top 10 pitching prospects from 2000-09. To improve the sample, I've isolated only the 41 of those 80 who have made at least 80 career major league starts. The results were telling:

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Career Start	<CENTER>ERA</CENTER>	<CENTER>WHIP</CENTER>	<CENTER>K/9</CENTER>	<CENTER>K/BB</CENTER>	<CENTER>HR/9</CENTER>	<CENTER>IP/GS</CENTER>	<CENTER>QS%</CENTER>
1	4.14	1.34	7.67	1.84	1.25	5.46	34.1%
1 to 5	4.03	1.35	7.20	1.76	0.97	5.69	47.8%
6 to 10	4.56	1.44	6.92	1.76	1.08	5.64	43.9%
11 to 20	4.27	1.38	7.27	2.12	1.10	5.70	48.0%
21 to 30	4.12	1.35	7.48	2.21	0.95	5.92	54.6%
31 to 40	4.02	1.36	7.49	2.18	0.90	6.00	54.4%
41 to 50	3.58	1.25	7.48	2.39	0.83	6.28	58.0%
51 to 60	3.84	1.30	7.42	2.31	0.88	6.14	53.4%
61 to 70	3.81	1.30	7.48	2.54	0.99	6.17	57.6%
71 to 80	3.69	1.25	7.65	2.58	0.90	6.36	61.5%

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Any veteran fantasy owner has, by this point, probably heard the phrase, "Every young pitcher endures an adjustment period." The chart above illustrates this; this group of elite pitching prospects typically reached this career stage between their sixth and 20th turns in the majors, then fully hit their stride by about their 40th career starts. This is evidence that you shouldn't expect the breakthrough during a top pitching prospect's rookie season, but rather his sophomore campaign, if you have the option of waiting.

It's the performance of those debut dandies, though, which are most curious. The chart also shows that prospects tend to enjoy an initial advantage through their first five career turns, particularly in the strikeout department. The rationale is anyone's guess; it could be as simple as their early opponents possessing less extensive scouting reports. This is especially relevant to pitchers like Fernandez, who averaged 10.73 K's per nine innings during his minor league career, and Maurer, who averaged 8.37 per nine during his. It's also relevant to a pitcher who has already debuted, Shelby Miller, who has but one big-league start under his belt and an 11.07 K's per nine ratio in his minor league career.


(Again an obligatory pause, this time to recognize that Maurer, unlike Fernandez or Miller, was not regarded a top-10 pitching prospect by either Law or Baseball America this preseason. He was one of Law's "just missed" prospects, so admittedly, he doesn't directly adhere to the chart guidelines.)

In other words, if you own Fernandez, Maurer or Miller, there's every bit as compelling a reason to activate them now rather than leave them on your bench for evaluation purposes until June. Granted, no two prospects possess identical skills, makeup, mentality and circumstances, all variables that influence the study, but history does show a greater chance that you'll miss a prospect's more valuable outings and absorb his adjustment-period performances if you play the waiting game.

You might also want to use the data for sell-high trading purposes, in the event that one or both gets off to a comparably strong start. After all, prospect buzz often can drive trade stock into the stratosphere. If, say, Fernandez is sitting at a 3.40 ERA and 37 K's through his first five starts, it might be a brilliant idea to shop him, because he's highly likely to reach an adjustment stage at some point.

Returning to the study's guidelines for a moment, let's not gloss over the high failure rate of this group. That only 41 of the 80 prospects reached the 80-start plateau means that a whopping 39 did not -- though, to be fair, 10 of those 39 "made it" as relievers, while it could be argued that five others (Brett Anderson, Wade Davis, Brian Matusz, Jarrod Parker and Chris Tillman) still have an opportunity to "make it." Still, that leaves 24 of 80 prospects, or exactly 30 percent, who failed to develop into long-term successes at the major league level. And that's only top-10, elite-level, prospects; a pitcher like Maurer, if he fails, wouldn't even count against that total in future years (unless he earns a top-10 ranking in 2014 or beyond).

That sure demonstrates the boom/bust nature of pitching prospects, and it's why we advise so strongly that you tread carefully with them.

A final note as it pertains to a pitcher's career development: Those career-starts-41-and-beyond statistics represent promising news for an attractive group of sophomores and third-year starters who could follow a similar pattern of improvement in 2013. The following pitchers, along with their career big league starts in parentheses, were Baseball America top-10 prospects between 2000-12 who reside within a group of pitchers with between 41 and 80 turns: Brett Anderson (68), Jeremy Hellickson (64), Stephen Strasburg (45) and Chris Tillman (51). In addition, Yu Darvish (29), Matt Moore (32), Jarrod Parker (30) and Chris Sale (29) should also reach the 41-start plateau by midsummer.

Consider it a good time, at least as history dictates, to trade for each.

[h=3]Rotations, schmotations[/h]
It must be one of those annual rites of spring, like birds, bulbs and baseball: Questions about rotation order and the relevance of Opening Day starts.


Fantasy owners' knowledge as a whole has increased in the past three seasons -- thank you, sabermetrics -- since the last time I ran this study, but every so often you'll still run into the occasional outlier who leans upon a faulty assumption: That a pitcher's alignment as his team's "ace"/Opening Day starter puts him in a pattern to face only fellow "aces," leading to a decrease in that pitcher's win potential. Some might say that New York Mets Opening Day starter Jonathan Niese, for example, might be bound to suffer in the win column.

The truth is that the only time the term "ace" matters is during the playoffs, in a short series, when the goal is to get that man on the mound as often as possible.

During the regular season, the day-to-day grind of 162 games, including off days that populate teams' schedules at varying frequencies, shuffle rotation orders, meaning that said "aces" often aren't even facing their opponent's same by their second turns. We'll already witness this for the first time Saturday, when Texas Rangers "ace" Matt Harrison works on four days' rest, lining him up against Los Angeles Angels No. 5 starter Tommy Hanson. The label also sometimes changes hands during the course of said schedule.

To lean on history again for evidence, I've analyzed 13 seasons' worth of rotational data (2000-12) -- consider it a expansion of the aforementioned 2010 study -- to illustrate how opening-week order becomes largely irrelevant deeper in the season. Labeling each team's Opening Day starter its "staff ace" and numbering its subsequent starters in order, staff aces actually matched up with the same in only 22.3 percent of their total starts all season -- that means that, after Opening Day passes, those staff aces actually meet up in only 19.5 percent of their remaining turns. And remember, with most teams using a traditional five rotation spots, you'd expect a pitcher to have a 20 percent chance of facing each individual spot.

There is, however, truth to the part about an ace possessing diminished win potential when specifically lined up with a fellow ace. The following chart compares these aces' performances to the league averages:

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<CENTER></CENTER>	<CENTER>QS%</CENTER>	<CENTER>W/GS</CENTER>	<CENTER>Cheap Wins /GS</CENTER>	<CENTER>Non-Win QS /GS</CENTER>	<CENTER>Tough Losses /GS</CENTER>
Aces vs. aces	58.7	0.369	0.052	0.270	0.115
MLB averages	49.1	0.352	0.079	0.219	0.085

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If wins are paramount in your league, that's something to keep in mind -- but only as a single day's matchups are concerned, not as a yearlong thing. In other words, take it into account if, say, you see Clayton Kershaw battling Matt Cain on Aug. 3. But even if you're worried about diminished win potential, are you really going to bench either Kershaw or Cain accordingly?

Another big check in the aces' column: Aces were actually the most likely to provide you with a full healthy season, meaning the greatest appeal for these Opening Day starters is that it signifies teams' trust in them as regular contributors. These pitchers averaged 28.1 starts per season, which is astonishingly high if you consider the injury rate for pitchers.

[h=3]Relief Efforts[/h]
One of the enhancements you'll notice to this year's "Sixty Feet Six Inches" is the incorporation of our former "Relief Efforts" column into the analysis. Listed at column's end is this season's first set of rankings, and one that ranks both starters and relievers in one set. (For the sake of convenience, a pitcher's individual rank as starter or reliever is indicated, as "SP01" or "RP01," for example.)


</PHOTO4></P>
There'll also be a "Relief Efforts" section -- barring the column itself sporting a relief-pitching topic as its primary story -- to address the latest closer news.

This week's top relief-pitching story comes from the Chicago Cubs, where incumbent closer Carlos Marmol already appears on the verge of losing his gig. Handed the second-easiest save chance by definition -- the three-run-lead, one-inning assignment (the three-inning save rule is classified the "easiest") -- on Opening Day, Marmol couldn't convert. He threw just nine strikes in 19 pitches and zero of four first-pitch strikes, hitting Andrew McCutchen with a pitch and allowing a Pedro Alvarez RBI single and Gaby Sanchez to walk. Marmol was promptly yanked, Cubs manager Dale Sveum playing lefty-righty matchups to get James Russell to retire Neil Walker and Kyuji Fujikawa to retire Russell Martin. Fujikawa recorded his first save for his two pitches of work.

This comes on the heels of an awful spring by Marmol -- 6.97 ERA and 7.84 walks per nine innings in 12 appearances -- as well as a 2011-12 regular-season performance combined in which he had a 3.76 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He's among the most ill-equipped to handle high-leverage chores because of his poor control, and regardless of Sveum's supportive comments -- he told the Chicago Tribune afterward that "[Marmol] is still the closer" -- Marmol's status as the team's primary ninth-inning reliever will probably be short-lived.

Fujikawa, signed to a two-year, $9.5 million deal this winter to serve as closer insurance, is well worth adding in any leagues in which he's available. His strength is far greater command; he averaged 2.29 walks per nine and 5.43 K's per walk during his career in Japan and had 10 K's compared to four walks during his eight Cactus League appearances.

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[h=4]TOP 150 PITCHERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For starter- or reliever-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column. Previous Ranking ("Prev Rnk") is ESPN's preseason ranking among all pitchers.

<CENTER>Rnk </CENTER>	Player	<CENTER>Team </CENTER>	<CENTER>Pos Rnk </CENTER>	<CENTER>Prev Rnk </CENTER>	<CENTER>Rnk </CENTER>	Player	<CENTER>Team </CENTER>	<CENTER>Pos Rnk </CENTER>	<CENTER>Prev Rnk </CENTER>
1	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	SP1	2		76	Kenley Jansen	LAD	RP20	74
2	Justin Verlander	Det	SP2	1		77	Kyle Lohse	Mil	SP57	100
3	Felix Hernandez	Sea	SP3	3		78	Edwin Jackson	ChC	SP58	76
4	Stephen Strasburg	Wsh	SP4	4		79	Ryan Dempster	Bos	SP59	88
5	David Price	TB	SP5	5		80	Alexi Ogando	Tex	SP60	70
6	Matt Cain	SF	SP6	6		81	Ernesto Frieri	LAA	RP21	87
7	Cole Hamels	Phi	SP7	8		82	Paul Maholm	Atl	SP61	102
8	Cliff Lee	Phi	SP8	7		83	Steve Cishek	Mia	RP22	85
9	Gio Gonzalez	Wsh	SP9	11		84	Brandon McCarthy	Ari	SP62	83
10	Madison Bumgarner	SF	SP10	13		85	Clay Buchholz	Bos	SP63	93
11	Jered Weaver	LAA	SP11	9		86	Jason Grilli	Pit	RP23	71
12	R.A. Dickey	Tor	SP12	15		87	Josh Beckett	LAD	SP64	86
13	Adam Wainwright	StL	SP13	12		88	Jason Motte	StL	RP24	54
14	Yu Darvish	Tex	SP14	14		89	Grant Balfour	Oak	RP25	65
15	Johnny Cueto	Cin	SP15	18		90	Marco Estrada	Mil	SP65	89
16	Craig Kimbrel	Atl	RP1	10		91	Casey Janssen	Tor	RP26	82
17	Chris Sale	CWS	SP16	17		92	Wandy Rodriguez	Pit	SP66	91
18	CC Sabathia	NYY	SP17	16		93	Bobby Parnell	NYM	RP27	103
19	Aroldis Chapman	Cin	RP2	20		94	Julio Teheran	Atl	SP67	124
20	Mat Latos	Cin	SP18	19		95	Jason Vargas	LAA	SP68	97
21	Zack Greinke	LAD	SP19	21		96	Wei-Yin Chen	Bal	SP69	94
22	Jordan Zimmermann	Wsh	SP20	23		97	Brandon League	LAD	RP28	92
23	Matt Moore	TB	SP21	25		98	Phil Hughes	NYY	SP70	99
24	Max Scherzer	Det	SP22	28		99	Kyuji Fujikawa	ChC	RP29	122
25	James Shields	KC	SP23	26		100	Mitchell Boggs	StL	RP30	136
26	Jonathan Papelbon	Phi	RP3	22		101	Chris Tillman	Bal	SP71	111
27	Kris Medlen	Atl	SP24	24		102	Ryan Madson	LAA	RP31	79
28	Yovani Gallardo	Mil	SP25	27		103	Shelby Miller	StL	SP72	101
29	Rafael Soriano	Wsh	RP4	29		104	Jonathan Broxton	Cin	RP32	115
30	Josh Johnson	Tor	SP26	37		105	Hisashi Iwakuma	Sea	SP73	95
31	Fernando Rodney	TB	RP5	30		106	Jose Veras	Hou	RP33	104
32	Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	SP27	38		107	Matt Garza	ChC	SP74	80
33	Mariano Rivera	NYY	RP6	32		108	Vinnie Pestano	Cle	RP34	98
34	Brandon Morrow	Tor	SP28	31		109	Dillon Gee	NYM	SP75	140
35	J.J. Putz	Ari	RP7	34		110	James McDonald	Pit	SP76	105
36	Doug Fister	Det	SP29	41		111	Drew Storen	Wsh	RP35	106
37	Ian Kennedy	Ari	SP30	33		112	Hyun-Jin Ryu	LAD	SP77	132
38	Jon Lester	Bos	SP31	39		113	Bud Norris	Hou	SP78	107
39	Joe Nathan	Tex	RP8	35		114	Ryan Cook	Oak	RP36	108
40	Jake Peavy	CWS	SP32	42		115	Ivan Nova	NYY	SP79	109
41	Anibal Sanchez	Det	SP33	43		116	Sergio Santos	Tor	RP37	110
42	Jim Johnson	Bal	RP9	47		117	Ross Detwiler	Wsh	SP80	112
43	Jonathon Niese	NYM	SP34	44		118	Jason Hammel	Bal	SP81	127
44	Dan Haren	Wsh	SP35	48		119	Carlos Marmol	ChC	RP38	96
45	Brett Anderson	Oak	SP36	49		120	Shaun Marcum	NYM	SP82	113
46	Addison Reed	CWS	RP10	50		121	Brandon Beachy	Atl	SP83	114
47	Jeff Samardzija	ChC	SP37	51		122	Tommy Hanson	LAA	SP84	119
48	Lance Lynn	StL	SP38	56		123	Andrew Bailey	Bos	RP39	180
49	Tim Lincecum	SF	SP39	40		124	Mark Buehrle	Tor	SP85	116
50	Greg Holland	KC	RP11	53		125	Chad Billingsley	LAD	SP86	118
51	Jarrod Parker	Oak	SP40	58		126	Phil Coke	Det	RP40	150
52	Roy Halladay	Phi	SP41	46		127	Gavin Floyd	CWS	SP87	120
53	Sergio Romo	SF	RP12	52		128	Sean Marshall	Cin	RP41	146
54	John Axford	Mil	RP13	45		129	Rick Porcello	Det	SP88	121
55	Huston Street	SD	RP14	57		130	Tyler Clippard	Wsh	RP42	123
56	Jeremy Hellickson	TB	SP42	61		131	Andy Pettitte	NYY	SP89	125
57	Joel Hanrahan	Bos	RP15	36		132	Bartolo Colon	Oak	SP90	149
58	Homer Bailey	Cin	SP43	59		133	Ricky Nolasco	Mia	SP91	126
59	Derek Holland	Tex	SP44	67		134	Patrick Corbin	Ari	SP92	197
60	Mike Minor	Atl	SP45	66		135	David Hernandez	Ari	RP43	128
61	Rafael Betancourt	Col	RP16	62		136	Joaquin Benoit	Det	RP44	129
62	C.J. Wilson	LAA	SP46	55		137	Felix Doubront	Bos	SP93	170
63	Jaime Garcia	StL	SP47	77		138	Wily Peralta	Mil	SP94	166
64	Matt Harvey	NYM	SP48	60		139	Frank Francisco	NYM	RP45	139
65	Matt Harrison	Tex	SP49	64		140	Vance Worley	Min	SP95	133
66	Alex Cobb	TB	SP50	90		141	Koji Uehara	Bos	RP46	135
67	Tom Wilhelmsen	Sea	RP17	84		142	Clayton Richard	SD	SP96	138
68	Ryan Vogelsong	SF	SP51	68		143	Justin Masterson	Cle	SP97	117
69	Tim Hudson	Atl	SP52	63		144	Luke Gregerson	SD	RP47	143
70	Tommy Milone	Oak	SP53	81		145	Mike Fiers	Mil	SP98	144
71	Chris Perez	Cle	RP18	69		146	Sean Doolittle	Oak	RP48	145
72	A.J. Burnett	Pit	SP54	73		147	Jose Fernandez	Mia	SP99	362
73	Glen Perkins	Min	RP19	72		148	Jake McGee	TB	RP49	147
74	Trevor Cahill	Ari	SP55	75		149	David Robertson	NYY	RP50	148
75	Wade Miley	Ari	SP56	78		150	Wade Davis	KC	RP51	157

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[HacheMan]

Is Brian Roberts worth picking up?

Eric Karabell

I'm reasonably confident that the measly dollar I spent in a recent mixed-league auction on Baltimore Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts was worth it. However, I really do have no degree of reasonable confidence as to whether Roberts will play in 20 games or 140 games this season. I'm rooting for him, for more important reasons than just fantasy baseball, but honestly, do you think even he knows what's going to happen this year?
<OFFER>But I had to crack a few smiles as Roberts singled twice and scored a run in Baltimore's 7-4 victory in Tampa Bay on Tuesday, because at least he's out there playing. He could have had three hits, but Rays third baseman Evan Longoria took a hit away from him on a diving play. Roberts, formerly one of the top middle infielders in the game over a six-year stretch, used to be a high-steal guy with double-digit-homer pop, including that magical, unrepeatable April 2005, when he bashed eight over the wall. Since a terrific 2009, he has dealt with myriad physical issues and has barely played. Even while Roberts was having a strong spring, not only seeing regular at-bats -- no Oriole had more -- but also hitting .310 with five walks and three stolen bases, it was tough to muster realistic optimism. However, if you want to talk about comeback stories, this is one to watch.

</OFFER>
"It was fun," Roberts told reporters after Tuesday's game, in which he batted ninth and certainly looked like his old self. "Not that you forget how fun baseball was, but when you are out for such a long period of time, sometimes you forget what the atmosphere and energy is like and just the joy of playing the game. So it was great."

Roberts is owned in just 8.0 percent of ESPN standard mixed leagues, and at this point there's no reason to call that number too high or too low. We just don't know. Orioles manager Buck Showalter inserted Roberts into the No. 9 lineup slot, and not solely because lefty David Price was on the mound (Roberts is a switch-hitter). Showalter has said he wants to decrease the pressure on Roberts, but he also has a high-OBP option leading off in Nick Markakis. It's certainly possible that Roberts moves up in the order, though, since I can't see 20-year-old third baseman Manny Machado hitting second regularly against right-handed pitching, even though he's a future star.

I'm hoping Roberts stays healthy, and one would presume the skills he used to boast are still there. The few times I caught Roberts on TV in March, his swing looked fine, his wheels looked fine, it appeared to be the same guy, just with that one very important asterisk of having played in a total of 115 games over three seasons. And let's be clear, this was one game Tuesday. Baseball is a daily grind, and Roberts is 35 years old. It would be great if he could hit 10 home runs, steal 30 bases and play in 140 games, but let's not go there yet.

Ultimately, what Roberts used to do when he was a top-50 overall option is not, I believe, a reasonable comparison starter for what he would do if healthy this year. Not yet. In addition, what Roberts did -- or didn't do -- at the plate last season, when he hit .182 in 66 at-bats, tells us nothing. This is new territory. There are 15 second basemen owned in 100 percent of ESPN leagues, and another seven ahead of Roberts in terms of fantasy popularity. For now, I'd still leave Roberts on free agency and own the likes of Jeff Keppinger, Omar Infante and even Gordon Beckham, none of whom I'm particularly enamored with. I want to believe, but give me a week or two before I can believe in Roberts, and even that seems like way too soon.

Speaking of Orioles, the underrated Jason Hammel allowed a Ben Zobrist home run and little else through five innings, when he may or may not have started to tire. It's tough to tell. Hammel is owned in only 9.2 percent of ESPN standard mixed leagues, which seems low based on his 2012 numbers. Forget about what Hammel did -- or didn't do -- as a member of the Colorado Rockies. Last season with the O's, he brought a new, big-boy strikeout rate of nearly one per inning, kept the ball down and avoided home runs. It all looked legitimate to me. I don't even assume his knee problems will trip him up. I see a borderline top-60 fantasy starter, someone who can whiff 175 hitters if he makes 32 starts. As such, his ownership should probably be higher.


Box score bits (AL): Well, that Yu Darvish guy looked pretty good, eh? Darvish, who I predicted months ago would be a Cy Young Award contender, was an out away from a perfect game Tuesday. But he's already owned in all leagues. I think the Houston Astros have some intriguing pieces to watch, but they're going to strike out a lot. Alexi Ogando is a wise spot-start addition for Wednesday against the Stros, though I do feel it's a bit early to be spot-starting pitchers. … I saw some of what Cleveland Indians right-hander Justin Masterson did in Toronto, but I still don't trust him. He's hittable and walked 88 batters last season. Lefties eat him up. I'd leave Masterson on free agency. Unless he's facing the Astros, of course. … Mike Morse homered twice off right-handed pitchers Tuesday, one an opposite-field blast. He has 30 more homers left in him.

Box score bits (NL): Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Marco Estrada fanned eight batters over five otherwise messy innings Tuesday, allowing nine hits and four runs. The K's are for real, but if the home runs are, as well, you can expect an ERA around 4.00. … That's two more hits for St. Louis Cardinals No. 2 hitter Matt Carpenter. I continue to enjoy his work on a handful of my fantasy teams. He's no fluke. The update on David Freese (back) is that he could return Monday; Carpenter would move to second base. … Cards shortstop Pete Kozma launched a home run to center field Tuesday, but it came off the embarrassing Heath Bell. Does it still count? Don't get enamored with Kozma, who hit .223 in Triple-A in 2012. … Joaquin Arias started at first base for the San Francisco Giants, but don't fret, Brandon Belt owners: He was battling the flu. Don't drop him yet!

 

[HacheMan]

Jays' Lind, Rajai Davis have sneaky value

Eric Karabell

The Toronto Blue Jays were able to make major additions to their ball club this winter, getting Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, R.A. Dickey and others, and expectations are high. In fact, seven Blue Jays hitters and four pitchers are owned in more than half of ESPN's standard mixed leagues. Of course, when I went searching for Blue Jays to talk to in the Citizens Bank Park clubhouse after Friday night's spring training win over the Philadelphia Phillies, I was focusing on a few barely owned Blue Jays who used to matter quite a bit in fantasy but for the time being appear to be sharing the designated hitter role.
Adam Lind went hitless in four at-bats from the No. 5 lineup spot in Tuesday's 4-1 loss to the Cleveland Indians. Meanwhile, on the bench and perhaps waiting for Lind to get on base so he could be summoned for pinch-running duty was speedster Rajai Davis. These guys, one an enticing power hitter and the other a major base stealer, are owned in a combined total of 7 percent of ESPN leagues, but it sure sounds like each player intends to be more relevant than that in 2013, and fantasy owners should be watching.

<OFFER>"I feel good," said Lind, who hit .305 and smacked 35 home runs in 2009 but hasn't been as valuable since. "To be honest, my role is yet to be determined. I'd like to stay in the big leagues, but it's my last year here, nothing is guaranteed. The last two years, I have had two good half-years. I'd like to try to get at least five months this year."

</OFFER>
Lind spoke with a smile, like a guy who has little to lose, and perhaps that's the case. While fantasy owners seem disinterested, he's a proven player at the big league level, and even while struggling in 2010 and 2011, he hit 49 home runs. Last season he hit 11 home runs in only 321 at-bats, but battled injury and slumps. He did, however, hit .304 after the All-Star break, cementing at-bats on this year's team. He lost weight this offseason and claims a new yoga regimen has made his back stronger. With the emergence of Edwin Encarnacion in 2012, Lind, who is eligible at first base, isn't likely to claim that role regularly. But we just want to see him hit. I asked Lind what has gone wrong the past few seasons.

"I think I was too fast, too tense, too tight at times," he said. "You watch the big guys like [Prince] Fielder, they're slow and under control, everything they do. I need that rhythm and tempo. I had it for three months, then was like the fifth chair in the band. As for hitting 30 home runs, that's pretty elite. It's possible. I know I can do it, but I'm not gonna say it."

While Lind's contributions for fantasy owners last season were modest, Davis finished second to Mike Trout in all of baseball in stolen bases. A right-handed hitter and seemingly natural platoon mate with Lind, Davis also could find himself in a new organization next season, or sooner. Prospect Anthony Gose could steal a ton of bases and is an elite outfielder to boot. He's only 22, but he's nearly big league-ready. If this is a straight platoon with Lind, then Davis would figure to get less playing time, being the right-handed hitter, but then again, he wouldn't need many at-bats to pile up stolen bases. Davis has stolen an average of 43 bases per season since 2009, yet with an average of 420 at-bats per season, which is low. He doesn't offer much else in terms of fantasy or real-life aid, though.

"I guess time will have to tell what my role is," Davis said. "There's a good chance I'll face lefties. Whatever I can do to help us win, whatever the role is. I just take advantage of opportunities. I get the opportunity, I take it."

When I asked Davis if he thinks about running pretty much every time he gets on base, he stopped what he was doing, looked up at me and said, "I do a little more than thinking it. I'm trying to get it."

It might sound odd, but this situation really could work, and fantasy owners should be on guard. Lind is certainly a reasonable power source against right-handed pitching, carrying a .282/.335/.502 career line against them, with 99 of his 117 home runs. Davis boasts a .290/.349/.417 line against lefties, certainly serviceable, and neither of these players figures to be facing opposite-throwing pitchers regularly. That bodes well for their individual batting averages. For example, Lind hit .276 against right-handers in 2012, with nine home runs in 232 at-bats. That could have been a 20-plus-homer season had he played more. Frankly, Blue Jays fans and fantasy owners don't want him facing lefties.

And Davis, for all his flaws, had a pair of double-digit stolen base months in 2012, same as Trout. Davis stole third base 17 times. Only one other American Leaguer reached double digits there (Darin Mastroianni). Davis is elite at what he does, and every fantasy owner seems to be looking for cheap stolen bases. Look no further. In AL-only formats, Lind and Davis are likely already owned, but I have a feeling we'll be seeing their names in mixed leagues, probably 12 owners or deeper, during the season, as well.

Blue Jay talk: Brittle or unlucky? Third baseman Brett Lawrie will miss another two weeks because of a strained rib muscle, but I still wouldn't drop him in any leagues. This is a potential top-50 player. I know, I know, he can't help us from the disabled list. Maicer Izturis can steal the occasional base filling in, and if this gives Emilio Bonifacio unlimited playing time at second base, I'm all for it. Bonifacio is only nine games at second base away from coveted eligibility! … Catcher J.P. Arencibia had a huge power spring and doubled Tuesday, but he also had trouble, as many do, catching knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. It might cost him playing time in the future. … Colby Rasmus whiffed three times in three at-bats Tuesday. When Gose starts strong at Triple-A Buffalo, don't be shocked if Rasmus' time starting runs out. … Don't read into Dickey's four-run performance Tuesday. His ball was certainly dancing. He's durable and will be a top-20 pitcher.

 

[HacheMan]

Fantasy prospects: Profar at No. 1

By Jim Callis | Baseball America

Welcome to our first installment of ranking the best fantasy prospects for 2013. Each week, we'll update our Top 10 to clue you in on which minor leaguers can help your fantasy team win this year.

Note that the rankings and information differ from my normal work for Baseball America. In this space, I'm not as concerned with a player's all-around ability or long-term impact; only his ability to put up fantasy numbers in 2013 matters. For instance, Astros shortstop Carlos Correa and Twins outfielder Byron Buxton were the top two picks in the 2012 draft and they're loaded with tools, but they're not close to being ready for the majors, so you likely won't see their names in the rankings this year.

To be honest, at the outset of spring training, I wouldn't have put Red Sox outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr., Marlins righthander Jose Fernandez, Twins outfielder Aaron Hicks or Mariners right-hander Brandon Maurer in the Top 10. Even a week before Opening Day, I wouldn't have ranked Fernandez. But they all broke camp on big league rosters, a testament to the uncertainty of prospect ETAs.

<OFFER>Of those four, I believe Bradley and Maurer are the best equipped to perform in the majors right now, though Bradley also could wind up heading to Triple-A once David Ortiz is healthy. Fernandez is on the short list of the game's top pitching prospects, but he's making the jump from high Class A to a bad big league club. Hicks may have had a great spring training, but those numbers (.370, 4 HR, 18 RBIs, 3 SB) mean less than his history of needing time to adjust to each new level and his lack of experience above Double-A.</OFFER>

With that, I present to you the inaugural Top 10 fantasy prospects for 2013:


[h=3]1. Jurickson Profar, SS/2B, Texas Rangers[/h]
Opening Day assignment: Triple-A Round Rock.
2012 minor league stats: .281 AVG/.368 OBP/.452 SLG, 14 HR, 62 RBIs, 16 SB at Double-A.
Fantasy scouting report: Profar would be the starting shortstop for most any other club, but the Rangers have Elvis Andrus, and they just locked him up through at least 2018. While Profar might never be the regular shortstop for Texas, it shouldn't be long before he takes over at second base and moves Ian Kinsler to first base or a corner outfield spot. Profar also is athletic enough to plug one of the Rangers' few holes in center field, though he has no outfield experience. Regardless of his position, he's a gifted, disciplined switch-hitter who should hit for average with double-digit homers and steals and plenty of run production in one of the game's deepest lineups and most favorable hitting parks.


[h=3]2. Wil Myers, OF, Tampa Bay Rays[/h]
Opening Day assignment: Triple-A Durham.
2012 minor league stats: .314/.387/.600, 37 HR, 109 RBIs, 6 SB at Double-A and Triple-A.
Fantasy scouting report: The Rays traded James Shields and Wade Davis to get Myers and three other prospects from the Royals during the offseason, and they have a glaring lack of power, so it doesn't make much sense that he isn't in their lineup. His situation may play out like Evan Longoria's in 2008; Longoria began the season at Triple-A Durham and was in Tampa Bay a week later. In 2012, Myers won Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year award and became the first 21-year-old to hit 37 homers in the minors since 1963. His power is his calling card, but he's also a career .303 hitter in the minors and he runs well enough to steal an occasional base, too.


[h=3]3. Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis Cardinals[/h]
Opening Day assignment: Triple-A Memphis.
2012 minor league stats: .321/.381/.525, 23 HR, 94 RBI, 10 SB at Double-A.
Fantasy scouting report: The "Legend of Oscar Taveras" is getting pretty ridiculous. Signed for a bargain $145,000 out of the Dominican Republic, he has led his minor league teams to championships in each of the past three years, captured two straight minor league batting titles and won the Double-A Texas League MVP award last year at age 20. The best pure hitter in the minors, he's also growing into at least plus power, and he runs well enough to steal double-digit bases and perhaps play center field. A year after jumping from low Class A to Double-A, he could have skipped a level again and cracked the big league roster, but the Cardinals have a set outfield of Matt Holliday, Jon Jay and Carlos Beltran. As soon as Taveras gets an opportunity in the lineup, via injury or by forcing his way there with his bat, it's likely that St. Louis won't be able to get him out of there.


[h=3]4. Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians[/h]
Opening Day assignment: Triple-A Columbus.
2012 minor league stats: 12-2, 2.42 ERA, 130 IP, 157 K's, 1.29 WHIP at Double-A/Triple-A.
Fantasy scouting report: Eleven months after going No. 3 overall in the 2011 draft, Bauer became the first player from that draft class to make the big leagues. But last December, the Diamondbacks traded him to the Indians because: a) He had rubbed several members of the organization the wrong way; and b) GM Kevin Towers somehow thinks Didi Gregorius could be the second coming of Derek Jeter. Bauer's training regimen and desire to call his pitches are unusual, but so is his stuff: a pair of well above-average pitches, his mid-90s fastball with riding life and his hard curveball. His splitter, slider and changeups are weapons as well, and he just needs to focus on getting hitters out instead of trying to make them look bad. Cleveland hopes to be more competitive this year, a goal that will be made easier if it doesn't leave its most talented starter in Columbus all season.


[h=3]5. Billy Hamilton, OF/SS, Cincinnati Reds[/h]
Opening Day assignment: Triple-A Louisville.
2012 minor league stats: .311/.410/.420, 2 HR, 45 RBIs, 155 SB at high Class A/Double-A.
Fantasy scouting report: Hamilton probably has the most roto upside on this list because he's likely going to be the next player to steal 100 bases in the major leagues. His 155 steals last year broke Vince Coleman's minor league record, and one scout opined that Hamilton might be baseball's quickest player since Cool Papa Bell. Hamilton isn't as polished a hitter as the others on this list, and he's in the midst of converting from shortstop to center field, so he's going to need some time at Triple-A. But even if he doesn't make his big league debut until August, he still could steal 25 bases in the final two months.


[h=3]6. Travis d'Arnaud, C, New York Mets[/h]
Opening Day assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas.
2012 minor league stats: .333/.380/.595, 16 HR, 52 RBIs, 1 SB at Triple-A.
Fantasy scouting report: Originally drafted by the Phillies, d'Arnaud since has been included in trade packages for Cy Young award winners Roy Halladay and R.A. Dickey. Acquired by the Mets during the offseason, d'Arnaud has the highest offensive ceiling among catching prospects. He could hit .280 with 20 or more homers per year, though he still must prove his durability after various injuries limited him to 252 games over the past three seasons. New York doesn't figure to contend in 2013, so it might let service-time concerns delay his call-up until June, but his positional value makes him an attractive fantasy option.


[h=3]7. Gerrit Cole, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates[/h]
Opening Day assignment: Triple-A Indianapolis.
2012 minor league stats: 9-7, 2.80, 132 IP, 136 K's, 1.20 WHIP at high Class A/Double-A/Triple-A.
Fantasy scouting report: The Pirates spent the No. 1 overall pick in 2011 and a draft-record $8 million bonus on Cole, who has better stuff than any pitcher in the minor leagues. He operates at 96-98 mph and touches 101 with his four-seam fastball, throws his two-seamer at 93-95 mph with sink, backs up his fastball with a wipeout slider that can hit 93 and can throw hitters off balance with a solid changeup. He throws strikes but still is refining his command, the last item on his to-do list before Pittsburgh calls him up.


[h=3]8. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies[/h]
Opening Day assignment: Triple-A Colorado Springs.
2012 minor league stats: .285/.337/.428, 12 HR, 56 RBIs, 0 SB at Double-A.
Fantasy scouting report: Arenado led the minors with 122 RBIs and won the Arizona Fall League MVP award in 2011 before enduring a slightly disappointing 2012 season, during which Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd even questioned his maturity. Arenado did finish with a flourish, batting .358/.375/.569 in the final month, and he tied for the Rockies lead with four homers in spring training. If Chris Nelson can't repeat last year's numbers, Arenado will claim his third base job and benefit from Coors Field. He makes consistent hard contact and has the potential to hit 15-20 homers and drive in 75-80 runs if he gets considerable playing time as a rookie.


[h=3]9. Dylan Bundy, SP, Baltimore Orioles[/h]
Opening Day assignment: Double-A Bowie.
2012 minor league stats: 9-3, 2.08, 104 IP, 119 K's, 0.92 WHIP at low Class A/high Class A/Double-A.
Fantasy scouting report: Perhaps the most advanced high school pitcher ever, Bundy went fourth overall in the 2011 draft and reached the majors as a 19-year-old in 2012. He has a full array of plus pitches, including a 92-98 mph fastball, 12-to-6 curveball and changeup, and he already controls and commands them well beyond his years. His upside dwarfs that of the members of the Orioles' rotation, though Baltimore pledges to handle Bundy carefully. Case in point: He came down with mild elbow soreness in spring training, and will miss the start of the minor league season. If he takes too long to return, it's possible that Kevin Gausman, the No. 4 choice in the 2012 draft, could beat him to Baltimore this year.


[h=3]10. Mike Olt, 3B/1B, Rangers[/h]
Opening Day assignment: Triple-A Round Rock.
2012 minor league stats: .288/.398/.579, 28 HR, 82 RBIs, 4 SB at Double-A.
Fantasy scouting report: Like his Round Rock teammate Profar, Olt has moved quickly through the minors, but he faces obstacles in Texas. Adrian Beltre blocks him at third base, and the Rangers may try to get Profar into their lineup before worrying about Olt. Nevertheless, he could hit for a solid average with double-digit homers if he gets even a half-season of playing time. And if your fantasy league incorporates on-base percentage, note that he has drawn 155 walks in 253 pro games.

 

[HacheMan]

Top prospects make 2013 debuts in minors

Eric Karabell

While the big leaguers were mainly finishing up the first series of their new season Thursday, the minor leaguers started things up at the same time, and there are quite a few players whose progress fantasy owners should be following. While I continue to believe Texas Rangers prospect Jurickson Profar is so good that he will see enough time with the big club to make a serious impact, on Thursday he made his Triple-A debut for the Round Rock Express.

Profar made his mark, reaching base three times, stealing a base and dazzling defensively at shortstop. He's only 20 years old but seemingly ready for the Rangers right now should opportunity open up, and let's be clear, is not a must-own in ESPN standard, 10-team mixed formats. There are enough middle infielders to count on in a shallow league. In deeper formats, especially if you have deeper benches, I'd add him now. Each game that Mitch Moreland (0-for-11 so far) doesn't get a hit could make a promotion reality!

Of course, Profar wasn't the only potentially fantasy relevant player who enjoyed his Thursday Opening Day. Fantasy owners are always asking about which players they should be stashing away for later in the season. Here are several others who performed Thursday to keep an eye on, because not only do they seem ready for the big leagues, but it could be soon. These aren't necessarily the top prospects, but five on my mind this fine first Friday.
<OFFER></OFFER>

Tony Cingrani, P, Cincinnati Reds: The 23-year-old lefty had little trouble with the Toledo Mud Hens, as he permitted nary a baserunner through five sparkling innings. He ended up going six, throwing 84 pitches and allowing no hits, one walk and striking out a cool 14. And the Hens lineup featured several players with big league experience, including outfielder Quintin Berry, as well as future star left fielder Nick Castellanos. This was Cingrani's Triple-A debut, but he's likely the first call-up should a Reds rotation spot open up, and probably part of the reason why Dusty Baker wanted Aroldis Chapman closing again. If Mike Leake struggles, well, you know.


Billy Hamilton, OF, Reds: Cingrani's teammate on the Louisville Bats doubled in four at-bats and did not steal a base. What? How dare he not run!?! We know Hamilton will make a huge impact for fantasy owners, but he needs more reps in center field. With the Ryan Ludwick injury forcing Chris Heisey into starting duties, and merely fourth outfielder types in his way, one more injury could mean Hamilton gets the call. I'd still prefer Profar for stashing purposes, and believe Hamilton is still months away from promotion, but he's pretty much ready.

Anthony Gose, OF, Toronto Blue Jays: Speaking of speed, Gose has plenty of it. Remember that the Blue Jays' new Triple-A affiliate is in Buffalo, rather than hitter-friendly Las Vegas, which should give us a more accurate portrayal of their players. Everyone hits in Vegas, as we'll see with New York Mets prospects now. Gose's Buffalo Bisons debut went well, with three hits and three runs scored. He did not steal a base. Keep an eye on Gose's plate discipline; he's already elite in center field, but he swings and misses a lot. So does current Blue Jays center fielder Colby Rasmus, though, and if he struggles and the team views Rajai Davis as a fourth outfielder (correctly) or platoon DH, Gose should be doing a mini-Hamilton impression before Hamilton.

Hunter Morris, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers: I think he's relevant because I can't believe a big league team would feel content playing shortstop Alex Gonzalez at first base. And it's not as though Gonzalez hits. Morris does. On Thursday, the 24-year-old Morris smacked a two-run home run in the first inning for Triple-A Nashville, then later a two-run double. Morris slugged 28 home runs in Double-A last year, 74 extra-base hits in all, and Corey Hart is out until May. Gonzalez is not the answer.

Dee Gordon, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers: For the record, I'm questioning whether he'll ever hit enough, but if he would just walk more and not look so overwhelmed at the plate, he could beat out the likes of Justin Sellers and Luis Cruz, pushing Hanley Ramirez to third base. Gordon walked and stole a base in four hitless at-bats Thursday for the Albuquerque Isotopes. A good two weeks in Triple-A might be enough for promotion, and let's be clear, he could steal double-digit bases in any month in the big leagues.

Others: The Wil Myers debut for Durham was rained out, but he was in the lineup in right field, batting third. My take on Myers is that he'll hit for power for Joe Maddon's Tampa Bay Rays right away, and he is ready, but the fiscally prudent Rays will wait until June, no matter how Matt Joyce, Sam Fuld or current Rays perform. … The Memphis-Oklahoma City game was also rained out, so St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Oscar Taveras did not play. He's working in left field and can handle right field, but I see him and Myers on a similar timetable, unless a long-term injury creates opportunity. … If you're wondering about Cleveland Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer, he's slated to start for the big club Saturday in place of shockingly injured Scott Kazmir. … Baltimore Orioles right-hander Dylan Bundy was placed on the DL at Double-A Bowie with right elbow stiffness. Uh oh. As of now, the team doesn't assume the worst. Bundy is 20, and I'd be surprised if he was called up before September. … Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler started Thursday at Sacramento and struggled, allowing three hits, three walks and two runs in 3 1/3 innings, on 86 pitches. He's pitching for Las Vegas, so don't look too closely at his early-season numbers. He's ready. … And Seattle Mariners catcher Mike Zunino made his Triple-A debut for Tacoma and finished a single short of the cycle, knocking in three. Wow. I see him debuting for Seattle around midseason.

 

[HacheMan]

Will Middlebrooks: Time to buy or sell?

Eric Karabell

Boston Red Sox third baseman Will Middlebrooks entered Sunday hitting .200, and in our reactive, impatient fantasy world, that was enough to elicit concern on Twitter about whether his wrist, which was fractured last season, was healthy, whether poor plate discipline would catch up to him and if this remained someone to rely on. After all, Middlebrooks is going in the 19th round in ESPN average live drafts -- you can still get in the game, you know! -- so the investment is modest at best, and many want immediate results.
Um, nobody will be thinking about dropping Middlebrooks after Sunday's performance, when immediate results came, and then some.


Middlebrooks slugged three home runs, just missed a fourth and doubled in Boston's 13-0 romp over 2012 NL Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey and the Toronto Blue Jays. The Red Sox as a team entered the day with two home runs in their first five games, then exploded for six on Sunday alone. Middlebrooks is projected by ESPN Fantasy for 23 home runs and 79 RBIs, with the risk coming in batting average. Those are reasonable power numbers, worth owning in all leagues, and there's upside for more.

<OFFER>Then again, there's also downside in batting average, and while it's simplistic to say pretty much everyone is a sell-high option after a three-homer game, it's very true in this case. Fantasy owners should always see what exorbitant price a rival fantasy owner is willing to pay after a monster game. Yes, Baltimore Orioles slugger Chris Davis was the ultimate sell-high after his first week. Do you really think Davis, a 16th-rounder on average in ESPN live drafts, is a top-50 player? Like Davis, Middlebrooks is valuable, but if someone floats the name of a struggling star your way, like any of the myriad ace pitchers that oddly got obliterated Sunday (Dickey, Stephen Strasburg, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain and David Price), then act on it. After all, the 24-year-old did this damage off a struggling knuckleballer in Dickey (0-2, 8.44 ERA, 1.97 WHIP) and career underachiever in Dave Bush, who played in Korea last season and was demoted to the minors by Toronto after the game.</OFFER>

That hardly means Middlebrooks will struggle. He should be a safe power option if he stays healthy, and there's little reason to believe durability will be a concern. But when a young player has such an impatient approach, there are red flags. After all, Middlebrooks walked 13 times in nearly half a season in 2012, striking out 70 times. Few would consider his .288 batting average reachable again with that rate. Any fantasy team can live with a .250 mark if there's power, but what if he hits .230?

Ultimately with third base such a brittle mess so far -- Milwaukee Brewers veteran Aramis Ramirez joined Chase Headley, Hanley Ramirez, Brett Lawrie and David Freese on the disabled list this weekend -- someone like Middlebrooks is tough to trade. But I would still choose all those injured hot corner options over him, because all come with significant upside or are more proven. That said, I do like Middlebrooks over Todd Frazier, Manny Machado and Kevin Youkilis, a few of whom are off to tremendous starts. Middlebrooks nearly joined Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt among third basemen to hit four home runs in one game, and while the performance might have been aberrant and there's batting average risk here, enjoy what should be a reliable young player.

Box score bits (AL): Speaking of the Red Sox, cult hero Jackie Bradley Jr. struggled in the Toronto series, going 1-for-11 and striking out five times. He's still drawing walks, but remember when you cut a veteran option for him that someone on the Red Sox has to lose a roster spot when David Ortiz comes off the DL. … Oakland Athletics outfielder Josh Reddick could be headed for the DL after spraining his right wrist running into the outfield wall Sunday. Reddick, who has a home run and a surprising three stolen bases already, is worth sitting in weekly leagues this week. … Still concerned about New York Yankees lefty CC Sabathia? He shut out Detroit over seven innings Sunday. He's a slow starter, and usually gets better after April. … Mark Reynolds of the Cleveland Indians launched two more home runs Sunday, and they weren't exactly fence-scrapers. He might hit about .220 and air-condition the ballpark with a bunch of swings-and-misses in the process, but another 40-homer season is reachable.


Box score bits (NL): Miami Marlins right-hander Jose Fernandez fanned eight New York Mets over five innings in his impressive debut Sunday. Fernandez, 20, was held to 80 pitches. While it's possible Fernandez sticks around in the majors to hit his 150-170 innings limit, a portion of them could occur in the minors. He's next scheduled to face Hamels and the Phillies, which now doesn't appear too scary. … What's scary is the Brewers using Alex Gonzalez and Yuniesky Betancourt as starting cornermen this weekend. One must believe slugging first baseman Hunter Morris is close to promotion. You don't want Gonzalez or Betancourt starting for you in fantasy, even at middle infield. … You don't want Chicago Cubs right-hander Carlos Marmol, either, not after his latest hiccup Saturday. Manager Dale Sveum quickly reversed his vote of confidence on the walks machine -- or team management intervened -- and Kyuji Fujikawa got the closing job, though he hasn't impressed either. Fujikawa is a must-add now, and in deep formats, lefty James Russell and right-hander Shawn Camp are also worth a look. … Atlanta Braves rookie Evan Gattis hit cleanup Sunday. He didn't reach base via hit, but that's some serious trust in a guy with a then-eight big league at-bats. Look for the Braves to use Chris Johnson and Juan Francisco at the corners with Freddie Freeman (oblique) on the DL, but perhaps Gattis can play first, too. Don't be concerned about Freeman; he claims he will return as soon as his DL stint is up.

 

[HacheMan]

Suggested early-season pickups

By Todd Zola | Mastersball.com

Do you realize that when you completed your draft or auction, you accrued only about 70 percent of the stats you'll have by year's end? That's right, you still have a lot of work to do. So while everyone else is reading about how the key to fantasy success is to be patient, take advantage and be proactive with your lineup.

I'm not saying you should deal Matt Kemp for Chris Davis or Cole Hamels for Justin Masterson. What I'm saying is it's never too early to make your team better.

<OFFER>Every fantasy roster has a few spots that are occupied by fringe players. Of course, that's all relative. The last player you pick up in a 10-team mixed league is obviously a better fantasy option than the last player on a 12-team AL- or NL-only roster, but in terms of fantasy baseball, they are both worth about the same to their respective squads. Thus, there are some roster spots where "patience" is the operative word. But there are also a number of roster spots where being proactive trumps patience, as you should be striving to upgrade the fringe players regardless if it's the first week of April or the last week in September.</OFFER>

The key to this is determining playing time. What delineates one fringe player from another is usually not the level of skill, but how much one will play as compared to the other. Monday we're going to examine a number of situations in which the playing time shakeouts are different than what was expected as recently as the last week of spring training. Some of these differences have influenced rankings, meaning you could have a lesser player occupying a fungible spot, and now is the time to recognize that there could be a better alternative.

Before we delve into actual scenarios, let's review a concept I introduced in March when examining roster construction, because it can be tied into this discussion. Conventionally, when a dollar value or rank is assigned via a mechanism such as ESPN's Player Rater, the full-season's expectation is plugged into the little black box. But the assumption is that, in order to get that number, the player will occupy an active roster spot all season.

Practically speaking, we know this is not the case. Let's illustrate this with a pair of teammates, the San Diego Padres' Carlos Quentin and Will Venable. In a vacuum, their fantasy potential is very close. Granted, Quentin should hit for more power while Venable will swipe more bases, but their fantasy value in a vacuum should be pretty similar. In fact, the amount of playing time expected for each is also fairly close. But here's the rub: Venable's playing time is derived from being on the good side of a platoon, playing against right-handed pitchers, while Quentin is an everyday player who always seems to get hurt and misses lumps of time every season. So on a per-week basis, during the weeks Quentin is healthy, he's a better fantasy option.

In other words, there are some players who, with stretches of consistent playing time, have a weekly fantasy value that's greater than their average value. This is the sort of player you want populating your fungible roster spots during the time they're playing regularly. Even at this early juncture of the season, there are some pertinent examples.


[h=3]Mixed-league options[/h]Gerardo Parra, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks: Coming into the season, the Diamondbacks' plan was to split the 2,100 or so outfield plate appearances fairly equally among Adam Eaton, Jason Kubel, Cody Ross and Parra. But with Eaton and Ross yet to make their 2013 debuts, Parra has played in every game, and he should continue to do so for at least the next few weeks, even though Ross is due back by the end of this week. In shallow mixed leagues, if Parra were to play in only 4-5 games per week, there are better options. However, when he's playing 6-7 games per week, he could be quite useful.

Alex Gonzalez, SS/1B, Milwaukee Brewers: Gonzalez was the Brewers' Opening Day first baseman, but he now will get regular playing time across the diamond at the hot corner while Aramis Ramirez is on the disabled list. Gonzalez might not be the prototypical fantasy corner infielder, but since he qualifies at shortstop, he could upgrade your middle-infield spot in deeper mixed leagues, as well as National League-only formats.

Michael Cuddyer, OF/1B, Colorado Rockies: While Cuddyer was expected to play most of the time anyway, either in right field or spelling Todd Helton at first base, after the surprise demotion of Tyler Colvin, most of the time is now all of the time, assuming the sore wrist that bothered Cuddyer over the weekend is minor. Dual eligibility at first base and the outfield is often perceived as not as important as other positions, but since your outfield and corner-infield reserves are likely your strongest bench players, the ability to flip Cuddyer between the spots helps keep your active roster at maximum strength.

Chris Heisey, OF, Cincinnati Reds: One of my favorite ploys when preparing for my own drafts is assigning the same number of plate appearances to everyone and running this through my value generator. That takes playing time out of the equation and allows me to get a feel for a player's potential if he were to get more playing time than expected. For the past couple of years, Heisey has stood out as someone who would be a very nice fantasy asset if he were to happen upon more playing time. His average might be low, but he should make up for it in the counting stats. With the injury to Ryan Ludwick, Heisey should be playing regularly and is now worthy of a roster spot even on a mixed roster.

Jed Lowrie, SS, Oakland Athletics: Lowrie is the perfect example of a player whose projection always has a playing-time hedge since he is prone to injury. In addition, many thought that even when healthy, Lowrie would fulfill a super-utility role with the Athletics, not as a regular starter. Well, he broke camp as the starting shortstop, and it appears that as long as he's healthy, he's going to play full-time and put up useful numbers for mixed-league owners at a middle-infield slot, if not shortstop.

Emilio Bonifacio, Toronto Blue Jays: There was no doubt Bonifacio was going to play for Toronto, but there was a question as to how much, since the Jays also seemed to want to find at-bats for Maicer Izturis. Following the injury to Brett Lawrie, though, Bonifacio has played nearly every day and should continue to do so until Lawrie returns. Bonifacio steals bases in bunches, and he can always be replaced with a hitter who has more pop if his playing time wanes later in the season.


[h=3]Deep-mixed, AL- or NL-only options[/h]
Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Boston Red Sox: Coming into the season, it seemed the Red Sox's plan was to play Jonny Gomes full-time in left field, even though he is best suited as the right-handed part of a platoon. Many owners drafted Gomes expecting more at-bats than usual, but something happened just before Opening Day: The injury to David Ortiz freed up a roster spot, and Bradley was given a seat on the plane heading north with the big club. At least until Ortiz comes back, Gomes' playing time will be reduced, and it could remain that way if Boston decides to keep Bradley in the majors.

If you drafted Gomes as a back end outfielder, hopefully you have already looked to upgrade; if not, there is no need to be patient. As for Bradley, the expectation is that he takes over for Jacoby Ellsbury in center next season. He got off to a hot start, but it appears he could use more seasoning, so don't be surprised if he's sent down to Triple-A Pawtucket when Big Papi is ready.


Lyle Overbay, 1B, New York Yankees: After contemplating using Juan Rivera at first base, the Yankees came to their senses and claimed Overbay off waivers (from the Red Sox). Overbay's best days are well in his past, but while Mark Teixeira is on the mend, Overbay will get at-bats and could poke a couple of homers over the short fence in right field at Yankee Stadium. In deep leagues, at-bats are currency, and Overbay will get his share.

Brian Dozier, 2B, Minnesota Twins: About two-thirds of the way through spring training, it became apparent that the Twins wanted Dozier to seize the starting job at the keystone sack, relegating Jamey Carroll to a utility role, and he did just that. Dozier is a better fielder than he is a hitter, but he has a little speed and can hit a home run now and then, making him a viable middle infielder in deeper formats.

Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry, OF, Texas Rangers: Just before the season, the word was that while it might not be a strict platoon, Martin would see more action than Gentry. Now it seems the split is closer to equal. This hurts those owners who drafted Martin expecting 500 plate appearances. He still could get there, but for the time being, he isn't playing enough to warrant being active on shallower mixed-league rosters. I wouldn't drop him, but you might want to find a replacement until he establishes himself as the regular center fielder.

Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates: This one stings, as I had Travis Snider pegged as this season's post-hype breakout performer. That still may happen, of course, but at least early on, the resurgent Sanchez has sent Snider to the pine. The original plan was for Sanchez to play a little at third base to get his bat in the lineup, but he hit so well in the spring that he earned a starting job at first base, his natural position. That pushed Garrett Jones to right field, with Snider as the odd man out. Consider Sanchez a corner-infield option in deeper leagues.

Collin Cowgill, OF, New York Mets: My personal opinion is that the Mets should find a regular starting spot for Cowgill and let him play, as he's the most talented of the glut of Mets outfielders (which also includes Jordany Valdespin, Marlon Byrd and Kirk Nieuwenhuis). Quite frankly, Cowgill is the only one worthy of a spot on a major league team, but at least for now, Byrd will play all the time while the others make up a platoon, meaning Cowgill likely will face only lefties. I still think, however, that Cowgill will emerge as a regular by the end of the season.

Nate Freiman, 1B, Athletics: Many expected Brandon Moss to be the regular at first base, but it looks like Rule 5 draftee Freiman may face southpaws, which will cut into Moss' production. If Moss is your corner infielder or outfielder in mixed leagues, you may want to look to upgrade. On the other hand, Freiman could be a corner or utility option in deep AL-only formats.

Evan Gattis, OF, Atlanta Braves: His defense behind the plate needs work, but Gattis can hit and will serve as the backup catcher until Brian McCann returns. He might even stick in the majors afterwards. In most leagues, Gattis is eligible only in the outfield, but with three games already at receiver, he should qualify there soon. In two-catcher leagues, he could be the ideal "won't hurt you" option, and might even help.

Hank Conger, C, Los Angeles Angels: While the analogy is not perfect, Conger is the American League version of Gattis in that he can hit, but his defense is lacking. Still, Conger makes for an interesting stash, as all it will take is an injury to Mark Trumbo, Albert Pujols or Chris Iannetta for Conger to get more at-bats.


[h=3]Undervalued mixed-league options[/h]
We'll wrap up this discussion with a look at a group of hitters often overlooked in terms of their changing fantasy potential. Part of estimating playing time is predicting the spot in the order the player will bat. My colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft wrote an outstanding column on that subject just a few weeks ago. I'll follow up on a couple of the scenarios discussed, as well as a few new ones.


Ben Revere, OF, Philadelphia Phillies: It appears Revere will hit atop the Philadelphia lineup, which is even tastier given the positive early returns from Chase Utley. If this persists, Revere could lead the Senior Circuit in steals, and he vaults past Juan Pierre and Brett Gardner in terms of fantasy value if you are looking for an all-speed, no-power outfielder.

Alcides Escobar and Mike Moustakas, Kansas City Royals: After moving Alex Gordon back to the top of the lineup, there was some question as to whether Escobar or Lorenzo Cain would occupy the coveted second spot. So far, Escobar has been there each game, which dents Cain's potential a bit. For those expecting a big bounce-back campaign from Eric Hosmer, you better hope that if he indeed hits, he is moved up from the 6-hole. Of course, there is a good chance he is left there as a means to keep the pressure off him. On the other hand, if Mike Moustakas struggles at his coveted cleanup spot, Hosmer could take over the 3-hole with Billy Butler sliding to the fourth slot in the lineup. But for now, temper expectation for Hosmer, regardless of whether you feel he'll find his groove.

Erick Aybar, SS, Angels: As expected, Aybar is hitting in the plush spot between Mike Trout and Pujols, while Howard Kendrick is batting sixth. This is a great boon for Aybar owners, as he'll score a ton of runs and likely be in motion a lot in an effort to have Pujols and Josh Hamilton see more fastballs. While Kendrick would have also benefitted if he was in the second spot, his owners should not panic, as once they get going, the Angels will turn that lineup over a bunch of times each game and Kendrick will see plenty of plate appearances. He should have a lot of RBI opportunities and should run a bit, as well. Let's put it this way: If I owned both Aybar and Kendrick, I'd much prefer Aybar hitting second and Kendrick sixth than Kendrick second with Aybar toward the bottom.

Nick Markakis and Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles: Nate McLouth is in a platoon, and when he sits, Markakis leads off. When McLouth is playing, Markakis moves down to third. This could help Markakis score a few more runs, though his RBIs might take a little hit. Overall, his value will be slightly increased due to a few more plate appearances. More relevant is that Machado has displaced J.J. Hardy as the No. 2 hitter, which could be a huge benefit to his potential. Machado should score a lot of runs and add a couple of extra steals to what was expected.

 

[HacheMan]

Eric Hosmer poised for big things in 2013

Eric Karabell

Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer struggled in the team's first three-game series, and wasn't expected to start at all during the interleague weekend series in Philadelphia. After all, regular designated hitter Billy Butler is pretty established himself, and two players can't play first base at the same time. I attended Friday's Royals-Phillies game and was surprised to see Hosmer in the lineup, but not to see him explode with four hits and a walk, plus three RBIs in the 13-4 demolition.

The performance raised Hosmer's batting average from .111 to .357, and is another reminder why players shouldn't be evaluated from just a few games. Of course, in Hosmer's case the 2012 campaign was so frustrating -- for him, Royals fans and yes, fantasy owners -- that a slow start to this season will send many impatient fantasy owners to the waiver wire.

"It definitely felt good," a smiling Hosmer told me of his big Friday. "Days like this are big, and a big confidence booster. I'm not trying to do too much. I get my work in. I definitely trust my abilities. I stopped thinking about last year, I've moved on."


Of course, not all fantasy owners have moved on, evidenced by how different Hosmer's draft spot is this season. A year ago he was a fifth-round fantasy darling, and currently he's going in the 12th round, outside the top 100. Not that it's overly relevant but Hosmer hit well in spring training, with a .385 mark and slugged .596, offering hope that last season was the aberration. So what really happened?

"Last year I just put myself in a hole, and you want to get it all back quick," Hosmer said. "The biggest thing I learned was to let it all happen and trust your ability. My lower half, I want to keep it as simple as possible. I'm a big guy, but I'm not trying to do too much, just make consistent contact and not swing too hard. Every at-bat you're going in with a game plan."

The Royals' game plan did not include Hosmer the other two weekend games, as Butler helped carve up the Phillies with a seven-RBI outburst Sunday, but fantasy owners shouldn't devalue Hosmer based on road interleague games; the Royals are home all this pending week, back in designated hitter country where he and Butler can coexist comfortably, and are scheduled for only four more road games in NL parks (two each in Atlanta, St. Louis) before the All-Star break. Who knows, by then Hosmer could see occasional outfield duty as well. He did play three games there last season.

Hosmer's rookie season was so promising that it raised expectations for his second year a bit too high, in retrospect. Hosmer hit .232 with only 14 home runs, though he certainly helped with 16 stolen bases. He hit ground balls more than half the time, many to the right side of an eager and often pre-shifted infield, raising speculation that, as with Atlanta Braves outfielder Jason Heyward, a shoulder injury played a role. Only 23, my feeling has been that Hosmer is just too good to be that average (or below average) again, a sentiment that teammate Butler concurred with after the Friday game.

"He looks comfortable now, it was a big game for him today and hopefully he builds off that," Butler said. "If he keeps having at-bats like that it's going to be a fun year. Hitting is all confidence, and a lot of people were telling him stuff he needed to do and it almost overwhelmed him. This is the big leagues, you're facing tough guys every day. It spiraled on him. He's too good of a hitter, too good of a baseball player for that to happen again, but it happens to guys in their second year and you overcome it and become stronger from it."

Butler should know. In 2007 he made his mark as a rookie, hitting .292 and slugging .447, then regressing with more playing time his sophomore season. In Year 3 Butler blossomed and he's coming off his first All-Star season, as his doubles finally turned into home runs and he became a worthy fourth-round ADP choice. Hosmer has similar upside offensively as a run producer and adds the stolen base option. The Royals don't seem particularly worried about the left-handed hitter, and he rewarded the team Friday from Butler's usual No. 3 lineup spot. Hosmer singled three times to right field, but also walked and drove a ball to deep center field for a double against a pair of left-handers, which is significant. In 2012 Hosmer hit .220 off lefties with a .591 OPS. If he can stay consistent and confident and aggressive on the basepaths, Hosmer is capable of emerging as a top-10 first baseman this season.

Royals roundup: Shortstop Alcides Escobar stole 35 bases last season, and is well on his way to perhaps more after swiping his third base of opening week Sunday. Escobar spent roughly half of 2012 in the No. 2 lineup spot, and remains there this year. It's early, but his improved plate discipline certainly won't hurt. … Outfielder Lorenzo Cain had a quiet first week, striking out in each of his five games, then getting three hits. Cain drew a few walks, but generally had poor at-bats. Jarrod Dyson waits in the wings to steal playing time if this continues. … Tough weekend for closer Greg Holland, though it'd be a surprise if Kelvin Herrera replaced him so soon. Holland walked the bases loaded Saturday, surrendering a bases-clearing triple by Kevin Frandsen, and manager Ned Yost had a quick hook Sunday after Holland permitted two singles. At least it's clear Herrera is next in line. … Right-hander Luis Mendoza impressed Saturday. He kept the ball down and fanned seven Phillies. Mendoza has never missed many bats, but did improve his strikeout rate the second half of 2012.