MLB Fantasy News 2013

HacheMan · Mar 14, 2013

Mock Draft No. 3: Points league

By AJ Mass | ESPN.com

While the World Baseball Classic rolls on and David Wright, perhaps, gets his only taste of what it is like playing for a winning team out of the way before the start of the 2013 regular season, the ESPN Fantasy staff once again decided to tackle the process of choosing up sides of our own. This time out, it's a head-to-head points-league format to which we turn our collective attention.

We used ESPN standard settings for such an enterprise, meaning a 10-team mixed league with a 25-man roster featuring the following positional breakdown: one catcher, one of each infield position, five outfielders, one 1B/3B, one 2B/SS, one utility player, nine pitchers and three bench spots.

Offensive points are given for each total base, run scored, RBI, stolen base or walk, but with a one-point deduction for any strikeout. Pitchers get a point per out, plus a bonus point for fanning a batter. Walks and hits cost them one point, while two points come off the board for each earned run. A win or a save is good for five points, but a loss will cost you five. Additionally, there is a 12-game limit per week on the number of starts a team can use.

The drafters, in first-round order, were as follows: me, Brian Gramling, Brendan Roberts, Tom Carpenter, Todd Zola, Eric Karabell, Pierre Becquey, Shawn Cwalinski, Dave Hunter and Tristan H. Cockcroft taking the turn into the reverse snake.

With that in mind, here are the results, along with a few highlights and insight into the thought process that went into a few of the more noteworthy selections:

[h=4]ROUND 1[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 1 Mass Miguel Cabrera, Det 3B
2 2 Gramling Mike Trout, LAA OF
3 3 Roberts Ryan Braun, Mil OF
4 4 Carpenter Robinson Cano, NYY 2B
5 5 Zola Justin Verlander, Det SP
6 6 Karabell Albert Pujols, LAA 1B
7 7 Becquey Prince Fielder, Det 1B
8 8 Cwalinski Clayton Kershaw, LAD SP
9 9 Hunter Felix Hernandez, Sea SP
10 10 Cockcroft Joey Votto, Cin 1B

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[h=3]Round 1 notes:[/h]
Kicking things off, I selected Miguel Cabrera. Now, I know I just wrote an article extolling the virtues of selecting Mike Trout as the No. 1 overall pick, but that was in a category-based scoring format. Points leagues don't care about where those points come from so long as they come, so Trout's value drops significantly in this format.

In fact, based on his ESPN projections, Trout ranks at No. 37 overall. So why did Gramling select him at No. 2? He simply thinks those projections are low. "Trout outperformed Ryan Braun on a per-game basis last year and I think he'll hit closer to .310 than .285," he said. "Plus, I also see his K/BB ratio improving greatly."

Because the best pitchers, as a rule, end up scoring more overall points than their hitting counterparts, it's not unusual to see aces like Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw go in the first round. At No. 9 Hunter grabbed Felix Hernandez and was not at all concerned about his potential for injury.

"It seems like every season we get the same concerns on Hernandez -- too many innings pitched, his velocity is down, his arm HAS to fall off soon. But I'm not concerned," Hunter said confidently. "He'll be a thoroughbred pitcher yet again this season and one I'm very happy to have as my team ace."

[h=4]ROUND 2[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 11 Cockcroft Stephen Strasburg, Wsh SP
2 12 Hunter David Price, TB SP
3 13 Cwalinski Jose Bautista, Tor OF
4 14 Becquey Troy Tulowitzki, Col SS
5 15 Karabell Adrian Beltre, Tex 3B
6 16 Zola Jose Reyes, Tor SS
7 17 Carpenter Edwin Encarnacion, Tor 1B
8 18 Roberts Andrew McCutchen, Pit OF
9 19 Gramling Matt Kemp, LAD OF
10 20 Mass Evan Longoria, TB 3B

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[h=3]Round 2 notes:[/h]
As Cwalinski correctly points out, "Power bats and high OBP guys become more valuable in this format." So when you can get a guy like Jose Bautista, who can lead the league in both home runs and walks, you don't worry about how often he strikes out.

There is some concern with Stephen Strasburg perhaps still being treated with kid gloves a bit in Washington. Could the Nationals shut him down again late in the season, especially if for some reason the team finds itself out of the playoff picture? Maybe so. But Cockcroft says he'll take his chances and worry about dealing with the head-to-head dilemma when September comes around.

Reyes is a steal for Zola -- if his health can hold up with the move to artificial turf. "Players with the reputation of being stolen base specialists are usually not favored in points formats," Zola said. However, if Reyes has more than 300 total bases, his high contact rate will more than make up for any power shortage. He's not Juan Pierre.

[h=4]ROUND 3[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 21 Mass Matt Holliday, StL OF
2 22 Gramling Carlos Gonzalez, Col OF
3 23 Roberts Ian Kinsler, Tex 2B
4 24 Carpenter Cliff Lee, Phi SP
5 25 Zola Yu Darvish, Tex SP
6 26 Karabell Dustin Pedroia, Bos 2B
7 27 Becquey Buster Posey, SF C
8 28 Cwalinski Cole Hamels, Phi SP
9 29 Hunter David Wright, NYM 3B
10 30 Cockcroft Ben Zobrist, TB OF

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[h=4]ROUND 4[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 31 Cockcroft Craig Kimbrel, Atl RP
2 32 Hunter Matt Cain, SF SP
3 33 Cwalinski Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh 3B
4 34 Becquey Jered Weaver, LAA SP
5 35 Karabell Josh Hamilton, LAA OF
6 36 Zola Adam Wainwright, StL SP
7 37 Carpenter Martin Prado, Ari OF
8 38 Roberts Gio Gonzalez, Wsh SP
9 39 Gramling Starlin Castro, ChC SS
10 40 Mass Billy Butler, KC 1B

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[h=4]ROUND 5[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 41 Mass CC Sabathia, NYY SP
2 42 Gramling Adrian Gonzalez, LAD 1B
3 43 Roberts Zack Greinke, LAD SP
4 44 Carpenter Jimmy Rollins, Phi SS
5 45 Zola Aramis Ramirez, Mil 3B
6 46 Karabell Jay Bruce, Cin OF
7 47 Becquey Justin Upton, Atl OF
8 48 Cwalinski Madison Bumgarner, SF SP
9 49 Hunter Jason Heyward, Atl OF
10 50 Cockcroft Bryce Harper, Wsh OF

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[h=3]Rounds 3-5 notes:[/h]
During this stretch of the draft, I selected Billy Butler. That's a move that could well give me the two top hitters in the league in terms of batting average. Plus, Butler has gone four seasons now with at least 158 games played. For a weekly league, that's a statistic that makes the process of lineup selection a lot less complicated. Set it and forget it.

Gramling had selected Starlin Castro the pick just before I grabbed Butler, and though he also coveted the Kansas City Royals first baseman, draft order played a role in the decision. "I admit Castro was a bit of a reach, but I thought he was the last of the second tier of shortstops and there was still more depth left at other unfilled positions in my lineup. I was torn between Butler and Adrian Gonzalez, so I decided to wait, knowing that Mass wouldn't take both of them."

As it turns out, I very nearly did take Gonzalez in the fifth round, but felt that CC Sabathia was the last remaining pitcher who I felt comfortable with as an anchor for my personal take on points league strategy -- more on that in the next portion of the draft -- so the gamble indeed paid off for Gramling.

Because of the points format's emphasis on pitchers, you will often find players like David Wright and Hanley Ramirez fall quite a bit in the draft as owners load up on starting pitching due to the fact there is no longer a four-category versus five-category handicap. That often leads to surprise bargains.

[h=4]ROUND 6[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 51 Cockcroft Carlos Santana, Cle C
2 52 Hunter Brandon Phillips, Cin 2B
3 53 Cwalinski Adam Jones, Bal OF
4 54 Becquey R.A. Dickey, Tor SP
5 55 Karabell Hanley Ramirez, LAD 3B
6 56 Zola Allen Craig, StL 1B
7 57 Carpenter Giancarlo Stanton, Mia OF
8 58 Roberts Mat Latos, Cin SP
9 59 Gramling Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos OF
10 60 Mass Jonathan Papelbon, Phi RP

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[h=4]ROUND 7[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 61 Mass Jason Motte, StL RP
2 62 Gramling Chris Sale, CWS SP
3 63 Roberts Joe Mauer, Min C
4 64 Carpenter Victor Martinez, Det C
5 65 Zola Yovani Gallardo, Mil SP
6 66 Karabell Aaron Hill, Ari 2B
7 67 Becquey Pablo Sandoval, SF 3B
8 68 Cwalinski Chase Headley, SD 3B
9 69 Hunter Yoenis Cespedes, Oak OF
10 70 Cockcroft Max Scherzer, Det SP

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[h=4]ROUND 8[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 71 Cockcroft Alex Gordon, KC OF
2 72 Hunter Aroldis Chapman, Cin SP
3 73 Cwalinski James Shields, KC SP
4 74 Becquey Roy Halladay, Phi SP
5 75 Karabell Matt Moore, TB SP
6 76 Zola Melky Cabrera, Tor OF
7 77 Carpenter Johnny Cueto, Cin SP
8 78 Roberts Brett Lawrie, Tor 3B
9 79 Gramling Yadier Molina, StL C
10 80 Mass Rafael Soriano, Wsh RP

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[h=4]ROUND 9[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 81 Mass Jim Johnson, Bal RP
2 82 Gramling Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh SP
3 83 Roberts Jason Kipnis, Cle 2B
4 84 Carpenter Carlos Beltran, StL OF
5 85 Zola Alex Rios, CWS OF
6 86 Karabell Kris Medlen, Atl SP
7 87 Becquey Marco Scutaro, SF 2B
8 88 Cwalinski Freddie Freeman, Atl 1B
9 89 Hunter J.J. Hardy, Bal SS
10 90 Cockcroft Fernando Rodney, TB RP

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[h=4]ROUND 10[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 91 Cockcroft Austin Jackson, Det OF
2 92 Hunter Paul Konerko, CWS 1B
3 93 Cwalinski Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle SS
4 94 Becquey Josh Willingham, Min OF
5 95 Karabell Eric Hosmer, KC 1B
6 96 Zola Paul Goldschmidt, Ari 1B
7 97 Carpenter Elvis Andrus, Tex SS
8 98 Roberts David Ortiz, Bos DH
9 99 Gramling Jose Altuve, Hou 2B
10 100 Mass Matt Wieters, Bal C

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[h=3]Rounds 6-10 notes:[/h]
Jonathan Papelbon, Jason Motte, Rafael Soriano and Jim Johnson. What does this quartet of closers have in common? They were all selected by yours truly in this portion of the draft. As Cockcroft lamented at one point in the draft, "Man, life in a points league with AJ Mass is rough. He steals all my closers."

I'm of the mind that the best strategy in points leagues, especially if you're the only one attempting to pull it off, is to draft one ace and eight closers for your nine pitching slots. The theory being that with wins and saves each worth five points and with the top closers getting 2-4 save chances per week, my staff is going to be far more successful on a per-week basis than a team that tries to fill its 12 weekly starts through a bunch of No. 4 and No. 5 starters.

Becquey, with whom I've played in points leagues before, takes the completely opposite world view: "I have absolutely no need for closers in this format. I'll stream starters and be just fine thank you."

Truly, it's all or nothing in my opinion. Either you go all-in with closers or you shun them completely. And the sneaky thing about being the only one pondering my strategy is that it oftentimes forces the hand of other players who end up reaching for the remaining closers to be sure that they get one, and in the process, pass up on solid hitters who can slip into my clutches later on. In other words, my offensive lineup doesn't suffer from spending so many picks on closers early on.

Case in point, look how close I came to getting David Ortiz at pick No. 100. Big Papi is a top-25 value in points leagues, but because of his DH-only status, people are typically afraid to grab him anywhere near where his true value lies. Roberts took him just before I was about to pounce. "Unless Ortiz misses time with an injury again or suddenly forgets how to hit, this was an incredible steal of a pick," he said. "With his high OPS, he's a points league beast." Hunter's pick of Paul Konerko was another example, perhaps, of how roto-bias allowed a solid points leaguer to slip through the cracks.

Other interesting picks included Chase Headley. "I wanted to get Martin Prado, but he went in Round 4, which shocked me. But even if Headley doesn't hit 30 home runs again, his walk totals and the resulting OBP [.374 and .376 the past two years] are what is truly appealing here," Cwalinski said.

Zola's Melky Cabrera pick was a bit of a head-scratcher, especially because he does believe that the batting average was a fluke. "I don't think it was anything more than lady luck, but while I anticipate some BABIP regression here, we're talking about a player who is likely to get a ton of plate appearances in a potent attack who doesn't strike out often. This profiles as a points league monster," he said.

[h=4]ROUND 11[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 101 Mass Shane Victorino, Bos OF
2 102 Gramling Joe Nathan, Tex RP
3 103 Roberts Ike Davis, NYM 1B
4 104 Carpenter Michael Young, Phi 1B
5 105 Zola Nick Markakis, Bal OF
6 106 Karabell Tim Lincecum, SF SP
7 107 Becquey Jake Peavy, CWS SP
8 108 Cwalinski Ian Kennedy, Ari SP
9 109 Hunter Hunter Pence, SF OF
10 110 Cockcroft Addison Reed, CWS RP

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[h=4]ROUND 12[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 111 Cockcroft Nick Swisher, Cle OF
2 112 Hunter Josh Johnson, Tor SP
3 113 Cwalinski Chase Utley, Phi 2B
4 114 Becquey Curtis Granderson, NYY OF
5 115 Karabell Dan Haren, Wsh SP
6 116 Zola Shin-Soo Choo, Cin OF
7 117 Carpenter B.J. Upton, Atl OF
8 118 Roberts Anthony Rizzo, ChC 1B
9 119 Gramling Jon Lester, Bos SP
10 120 Mass Ian Desmond, Wsh SS

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[h=4]ROUND 13[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 121 Mass John Axford, Mil RP
2 122 Gramling Adam LaRoche, Wsh 1B
3 123 Roberts Anibal Sanchez, Det SP
4 124 Carpenter Hiroki Kuroda, NYY SP
5 125 Zola C.J. Wilson, LAA SP
6 126 Karabell Greg Holland, KC RP
7 127 Becquey Brandon Morrow, Tor SP
8 128 Cwalinski Sergio Romo, SF RP
9 129 Hunter Doug Fister, Det SP
10 130 Cockcroft Mark Teixeira, NYY 1B

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[h=4]ROUND 14[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 131 Cockcroft Derek Jeter, NYY SS
2 132 Hunter J.J. Putz, Ari RP
3 133 Cwalinski Angel Pagan, SF OF
4 134 Becquey Dan Uggla, Atl 2B
5 135 Karabell Mariano Rivera, NYY RP
6 136 Zola Juan Pierre, Mia OF
7 137 Carpenter Alexi Ogando, Tex SP
8 138 Roberts Rafael Betancourt, Col RP
9 139 Gramling Jeff Samardzija, ChC SP
10 140 Mass Josh Reddick, Oak OF

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[h=4]ROUND 15[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 141 Mass Norichika Aoki, Mil OF
2 142 Gramling Manny Machado, Bal 3B
3 143 Roberts Torii Hunter, Det OF
4 144 Carpenter Joel Hanrahan, Bos RP
5 145 Zola Matt Harrison, Tex SP
6 146 Karabell Lance Lynn, StL SP
7 147 Becquey Mike Moustakas, KC 3B
8 148 Cwalinski Huston Street, SD RP
9 149 Hunter Neil Walker, Pit 2B
10 150 Cockcroft Ernesto Frieri, LAA RP

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[h=3]Rounds 11-15 notes:[/h]
With only a three-man bench in this league, it's hard to take chances on players who might not be available on Opening Day. That's why it was a bit surprising to see Becquey take Curtis Granderson as early as Round 12. But this isn't a league where you add up all the totals at the end of the season to see who wins. It's a weekly head-to-head, and that makes all the difference. "I'll trust that if having Granderson costs me a game in April, he'll make up for it by getting me a few victories down the stretch and in the playoffs," Becquey said. "This isn't about total points. It's about points per game."

That said, I'm also surprised Cockcroft didn't grab Granderson first. After all, he used this part of the draft to go with Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira, as well as adding Kevin Youkilis with the second of his back-to-back picks in Rounds 15-16. I'm not sure the New York Yankees fan wouldn't have been happy to simply be assigned the Yankees en masse and call it a day. However, that deal would have meant that Karabell couldn't have grabbed Mariano Rivera in Round 14.

Karabell says that Rivera is a guy whose stats simply fit into this format. "He may not be a huge strikeout guy, but it's amazing how many points a reliever can accrue when he doesn't walk people or get lit up," he said.

I found it amusing that Hunter ended up with Hunter Pence, but resisted the but resisted the urge to follow suit and left A.J. Burnett alone, though he was eventually grabbed by Becquey in Round 23. Pence, who accumulates a lot of counting stats without excelling in any one particular area, probably should be bumped up about five rounds in points leagues versus a category-based system. It's a good pick here.

I'm hoping to get about 300 points combined from my outfield duo of Josh Reddick and Norichika Aoki in terms of just their runs scored and RBIs. Throw in the power of Reddick and the speed of Aoki and that should be another 125 points easy, and that's assuming regression for both. It could be much better and for guys who are going to be my No. 4 and No. 5 outfielders, I'm very happy here, given how late I'm deciding to pick them.

[h=4]ROUND 16[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 151 Cockcroft Kevin Youkilis, NYY 3B
2 152 Hunter Lance Berkman, Tex 1B
3 153 Cwalinski Michael Cuddyer, Col OF
4 154 Becquey Andre Ethier, LAD OF
5 155 Karabell Jonathon Niese, NYM SP
6 156 Zola Alexei Ramirez, CWS SS
7 157 Carpenter Michael Bourn, Cle OF
8 158 Roberts Derek Holland, Tex SP
9 159 Gramling Nelson Cruz, Tex OF
10 160 Mass Mark Trumbo, LAA OF

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[h=4]ROUND 17[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 161 Mass Dustin Ackley, Sea 2B
2 162 Gramling Chris Perez, Cle RP
3 163 Roberts Casey Janssen, Tor RP
4 164 Carpenter Desmond Jennings, TB OF
5 165 Zola Homer Bailey, Cin SP
6 166 Karabell Kenley Jansen, LAD RP
7 167 Becquey Jarrod Parker, Oak SP
8 168 Cwalinski Mike Minor, Atl SP
9 169 Hunter Ichiro Suzuki, NYY OF
10 170 Cockcroft Dexter Fowler, Col OF

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[h=4]ROUND 18[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 171 Cockcroft Glen Perkins, Min RP
2 172 Hunter Marco Estrada, Mil SP
3 173 Cwalinski Jason Grilli, Pit RP
4 174 Becquey Jason Kubel, Ari OF
5 175 Karabell Ryan Howard, Phi 1B
6 176 Zola Rickie Weeks, Mil 2B
7 177 Carpenter Phil Hughes, NYY SP
8 178 Roberts Corey Hart, Mil 1B
9 179 Gramling Bruce Rondon, Det RP
10 180 Mass Tom Wilhelmsen, Sea RP

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[h=4]ROUND 19[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 181 Mass Kyuji Fujikawa, ChC RP
2 182 Gramling Matt Harvey, NYM SP
3 183 Roberts Jonathan Broxton, Cin RP
4 184 Carpenter Brett Myers, Cle SP
5 185 Zola Jeremy Hellickson, TB SP
6 186 Karabell Alfonso Soriano, ChC OF
7 187 Becquey Colby Rasmus, Tor OF
8 188 Cwalinski Miguel Montero, Ari C
9 189 Hunter David Murphy, Tex OF
10 190 Cockcroft Jed Lowrie, Oak SS

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[h=4]ROUND 20[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 191 Cockcroft Grant Balfour, Oak RP
2 192 Hunter Salvador Perez, KC C
3 193 Cwalinski Kendrys Morales, Sea 1B
4 194 Becquey Michael Brantley, Cle OF
5 195 Karabell Steve Cishek, Mia RP
6 196 Zola Trevor Cahill, Ari SP
7 197 Carpenter Hisashi Iwakuma, Sea SP
8 198 Roberts Brett Anderson, Oak SP
9 199 Gramling David Freese, StL 3B
10 200 Mass Josh Rutledge, Col SS

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[h=3]Rounds 16-20 notes:[/h]
Carpenter's picks of Michael Bourn and Desmond Jennings at this late stage of the draft helps highlight the incredible valuation disconnect between rotisserie and points leagues. Both of these guys would be reasonable top-75 selections in a 5x5 league where stolen bases have unique value. Carpenter is absolutely correct when he says that "steals can cover up hitting issues and low batting averages." However, when a walk and a steal is exactly the same value as a double, there's nothing all that special about what either of these players has to offer a fantasy owner.

Roberts made another of those "April be damned" picks with Corey Hart but again reminds us all that he can "help just as much down the stretch as guys taken several rounds earlier." Gramling also gets a steal at No. 199, and one that might help him right from the get-go, in the form of David Freese, who is one of those rare players whose statistics seem to contribute to his fantasy team's value around the same in all formats.

Cwalinski happily grabs his catcher in Round 19. "You know what catcher has the most RBIs in the last two seasons? It's Miguel Montero. I also like the fact that his walk rate jumped to 12.7 percent last season," he said. Playing in Arizona, one can fully expect Montero to rack up some points, which is why he's ESPN's No. 8 catcher in points leagues.

It's not a fantasy draft until Karabell selects someone from the Philadelphia Phillies. In this case, it's Ryan Howard, and coming as late as it did makes a whole lot of sense. "Howard will make many outs and an unhealthy portion of them will come from swinging and missing, but I also expect power and many RBIs," he said. Sure, the K's cancel out the RBIs, but if Howard can get back up to the neighborhood of 75 walks, he might well slug enough to make it into the top 100.

Hunter was also high on his ability to grab David Murphy in Round 19, especially since he has a chance to get more than 525 at-bats for the first time in his career. "He's made huge strides facing lefties and that's a real push in his maturity as a hitter," he said. Besides, how can you not argue that a player who can get you six starts a week has much more upside than one who is stuck in a platoon that allows him only 2-3 starts. In a weekly head-to-head, it's all about volume.

[h=4]ROUND 21[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 201 Mass Kyle Seager, Sea 3B
2 202 Gramling Andrelton Simmons, Atl SS
3 203 Roberts Alejandro De Aza, CWS OF
4 204 Carpenter Erick Aybar, LAA SS
5 205 Zola Mike Napoli, Bos C
6 206 Karabell Ryan Dempster, Bos SP
7 207 Becquey Jeff Keppinger, CWS 3B
8 208 Cwalinski Daniel Murphy, NYM 2B
9 209 Hunter Justin Morneau, Min 1B
10 210 Cockcroft Yonder Alonso, SD 1B

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[h=4]ROUND 22[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 211 Cockcroft Alex Cobb, TB SP
2 212 Hunter Ryan Madson, LAA RP
3 213 Cwalinski Brett Gardner, NYY OF
4 214 Becquey Tim Hudson, Atl SP
5 215 Karabell Michael Morse, Sea OF
6 216 Zola Carlos Quentin, SD OF
7 217 Carpenter Wade Miley, Ari SP
8 218 Roberts Alcides Escobar, KC SS
9 219 Gramling Ryan Vogelsong, SF SP
10 220 Mass Bobby Parnell, NYM RP

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[h=4]ROUND 23[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 221 Mass Tommy Milone, Oak SP
2 222 Gramling Jose Veras, Hou RP
3 223 Roberts Garrett Jones, Pit 1B
4 224 Carpenter Brandon McCarthy, Ari SP
5 225 Zola Brandon League, LAD RP
6 226 Karabell Chris Davis, Bal 1B
7 227 Becquey A.J. Burnett, Pit SP
8 228 Cwalinski Matt Garza, ChC SP
9 229 Hunter Carl Crawford, LAD OF
10 230 Cockcroft Josh Beckett, LAD SP

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[h=4]ROUND 24[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 231 Cockcroft Jason Vargas, LAA SP
2 232 Hunter Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD SP
3 233 Cwalinski Coco Crisp, Oak OF
4 234 Becquey James McDonald, Pit SP
5 235 Karabell Edwin Jackson, ChC SP
6 236 Zola Vinnie Pestano, Cle RP
7 237 Carpenter Pedro Alvarez, Pit 3B
8 238 Roberts Chris Capuano, LAD SP
9 239 Gramling Wandy Rodriguez, Pit SP
10 240 Mass Drew Storen, Wsh RP

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[h=4]ROUND 25[/h]

Pick Overall By Player
1 241 Mass Andy Dirks, Det OF
2 242 Gramling Logan Morrison, Mia OF
3 243 Roberts Jaime Garcia, StL SP
4 244 Carpenter Ben Revere, Phi OF
5 245 Zola Clay Buchholz, Bos SP
6 246 Karabell Jesus Montero, Sea C
7 247 Becquey Mark Buehrle, Tor SP
8 248 Cwalinski Mike Fiers, Mil SP
9 249 Hunter Danny Espinosa, Wsh 2B
10 250 Cockcroft Ryan Cook, Oak P

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[h=3]Rounds 21-25 notes:[/h]
Most of this final portion of the draft was spent filling in the particular open lineup spots of each owner's roster along with the three bench spots. Strategically, because of the ability to shuttle pitchers in and out of your nine-man rotation, it's probably best to give yourself more wiggle room using those spots for arms rather than bats.

For me, I went with Tommy Milone, whom I can activate on days he's starting if I like the matchup, and Drew Storen, who may well get a few save chances of his own on days when Rafael Soriano needs a rest. My final pick was simply due to the fact Andy Dirks is my favorite current player. Never forget that fantasy is supposed to be fun and if you want to pick somebody simply because you want to be able to root for them, don't be afraid to do so. Just be sure to do it in Round 25 and not Round 2.

Other "lottery ticket" picks could well pay huge dividends. Hunter took former first-round favorite Carl Crawford on the premise that "even with conservative estimates of his production, he could earn 320 points this season" although it all comes down to that elbow not flaring up again. Still, in Round 23? There's no risk.

Cockcroft took Yonder Alonso, another intriguing name. Not only could the reconfiguration of Petco Park lead to better power numbers for Alonso, but "he's a better walker and contact hitter than he gets credit for, which makes for a good points-based combination of skills."

Other hitter picks that probably shouldn't have lasted this long were Alcides Escobar, whom Roberts believes is still in his growth phase and can easily be a starting shortstop in a 10-team league, and Logan Morrison, who not only has a decent amount of pop in his bat, but also gives Gramling a little positional flexibility (1B/OF) which is crucial given the short bench and only one DL spot.

So there you have it, points leaguers: a mock just for you. Remember that it's all about the total points and not how you get them, so don't focus so much on whether or not a player can get help you a little bit in several different categories or a whole lot in only one. This isn't rotisserie. Players either help you or they don't.

It's different, but unless you give it a try, you'll never truly learn if this type of scoring system is right for you. So what are you waiting for? Start a league and get to playing. And lastly, remember to have fun, because at the end of the day, that's the whole point.

HacheMan · Mar 14, 2013

Heyward ready to be a top-5 outfielder

By James Quintong | ESPN.com

Two years before Mike Trout and Bryce Harper wowed fantasy owners with their fine all-around play, Jason Heyward was the highly coveted prospect everyone wanted. After a decent 2010 rookie campaign, he slumped during an injury-plagued 2011 before rebounding in 2012, finishing 10th among outfielders on the Player Rater. The question now becomes: Is that the best Heyward can do, or can he make the leap to the truly elite fantasy options, a potential top-five outfielder and/or first-round pick as early as this year?

Given his age (he's still just 23) and his overall skill set, the answer is yes.
An interesting thing about Heyward's top-10 showing among outfielders on the Player Rater last season is that he was not top-10 in any one category. His best category showing was runs, where he finished tied for 13th (with 93 runs). He was tied for 18th in homers, tied for 26th in RBIs, tied for 25th in steals and tied for 53rd in batting average. But put all of those pieces together and you have an all-around fantasy star, boosting your production in five categories.

To be considered a truly elite player, he'll probably need to rank among the top five or 10 in at least two or three of the categories, and be pretty solid in the others. This is very doable. At age 23, he still has room to grow statistically.

Let's break down each of the five primary fantasy categories to see how Heyward stacks up:

Runs: Heyward scored a career-high 93 runs in 2012, second on the team to the now-departed Michael Bourn. He mostly did that hitting third in the lineup. This year, he's likely going to bat second in a pretty stacked Atlanta Braves lineup, just ahead of Justin Upton, Freddie Freeman and B.J. Upton. If he can get on base at a reasonable clip (.352 career OBP), he could approach 100 runs. A few more homers would help as well. This was his best category on the Player Rater last year, and it likely will be again in 2013.

RBIs: Heyward drove in a career-high 82 runs last year, although that potentially could be his ceiling this year if he's going to be the No. 2 hitter in the lineup, with only the leadoff hitter and occasionally the Nos. 8 and 9 hitters to drive home. The major league leader in RBIs out of the 2-hole last year was Torii Hunter with 69 (Aaron Hill led the NL with 66.). Meanwhile, the Braves' No. 2 hitter last year, Martin Prado, had 60 out of that spot. That said, Heyward does have more power than Prado, so there's a decent chance he can drive himself home at least a few more times in the process. At the very least, Andrelton Simmons, who likely will replace Bourn as the Braves' leadoff man, should give Heyward decent opportunities overall.

Home runs: This could be the category where Heyward could really break through and become a real star. He slugged 27 homers in 2012 and has the ability to hit more. One notable trend in Heyward's underlying stats is that his fly ball rate has gone from 27.2 percent in 2010 up to 36.7 percent last year (according to FanGraphs). Meanwhile, his home run/ fly ball rate in 2010 and 2012 were very similar (16.8 percent versus 16.9 percent). That rate does seem somewhat sustainable, so with another year of experience (as well as a few more fly balls), he definitely could hit 30-35 homers. The potential for that many homers alone puts him in the running to be a fantasy star; when you add in the rest of his game, he has elite potential.

Stolen bases: Heyward stole 21 bases last year -- including eight steals in eight attempts in April -- after swiping 20 combined in his first two seasons. He has the speed to steal a ton of bases, although it remains to be seen how often the team will give him the green light with some big hitters behind him in the Braves' lineup. And after his 8-for-8 start in steals last season, he went just 13-for-21 the rest of the way, so is the same confidence there? That's a valid question, but any steals total in the high teens/low 20s puts him in the realm of the top fantasy players, given the rest of what he offers.

Batting average: This could be the biggest obstacle in Heyward's rise to elite status, but he's still growing and has plenty of potential here. He showed a great batting eye in his rookie year in 2010, walking 91 times and putting up a .393 on-base percentage (top-10 in the majors), although he had just a .277 average in the process. A combination of factors (most notably a shoulder injury that could've led to a lot more ground balls) led to his disappointing .227 mark in 2011, and he hit .269 last year, not great but not terrible either.

The good news for Heyward is that his line-drive rate went up in 2012 (to 19.3 percent, from 17.8 percent in 2010 and 13.1 percent in 2011) and his ground ball rate went down (to 44.0 percent, going from 55.1 in 2010 and 53.9 percent in 2011). On the other hand, he appears to have less patience at the plate; he walked just 58 times and struck out 152 times last year (a far cry from his 91/128 numbers in 2010). While his aggressiveness at the plate has led to a few more homers, the 152 strikeouts from last year need to come down if he's going to come anywhere close to a .300 average. It doesn't help that his contact rate has also gone down during his career (79 percent in 2010 to 75 percent last year), though that could be adjusted as well.

Interestingly, with the league-average batting average going down, Heyward's average isn't as much of a drain overall as it might've been a few years ago. However, there's still room for improvement in both the batting average and on-base percentage departments, and if he can put everything together, he still has a shot at a .285-.290 average. Add all the positive numbers coming from each of the categories and you have an elite outfielder.

While Heyward's natural progression should lead to improvements across the board (provided he stays healthy), it will be interesting to see how the addition of the Upton brothers to the Braves lineup will affect Heyward's stats, whether by providing more runs or RBI opportunities, or even by potentially giving him the chance to see better pitches. It's definitely a dynamic outfield, with all three of them potentially being top-five or top-10 talent at the position.

At this point, Heyward is still ranked behind Justin Upton among Braves outfielders, but I think Heyward's power will continue to flourish, which could lead to him getting into a more RBI-friendly part of the lineup, and he will overtake the younger Upton in fantasy value this year.

Remember, there was a reason Heyward was No. 1 in Keith Law's Top 100 prospects for 2010. While there have been some hiccups along the way, Heyward is still just 23, with plenty of fantastic numbers to come.

HacheMan · Mar 17, 2013

[h=3]My 'Do Not Draft' list: Posey, Bourn ...

[/h]Eric Karabell

San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey is the consensus top guy at his position this season, a point I have no intention of arguing. Posey has proven himself to be a terrific, accomplished hitter -- and healer of injury -- and his performance in the second half last season was incredible, even somewhat historic. At a challenging defensive position in which the norm seems to be late-summer fatigue, Posey hit .385 after the All-Star break, with 14 home runs and 60 RBIs. It had been more than a decade since any catcher finished with at least 20 home runs, 100 RBIs and a .330 batting average.
<OFFER>However, being the top guy at what many perceive to be a weak fantasy position -- I disagree with that assertion in standard leagues -- does not warrant exalting said player to the second round of drafts, which is why Posey highlights my "Do Not Draft" list.

</OFFER>
Let's be clear: Of course I would draft him if the value was right, ahead of Yadier Molina and every other backstop. But this is a player who finished the 2012 season 27th on the ESPN Player Rater, and with a truly unsustainable second half, so I can't possibly justify reaching for him in the top 20, ahead of the likes of Justin Upton, Jose Bautista, Adrian Beltre and other reliable hitters who are being taken later than him in ESPN average live drafts.

This annual blog entry of mine is simply about perceiving value and why certain players will not be ending up on my teams. While a catcher does occasionally show up in the first three rounds of drafts, such as Joe Mauer in the past, it's never me pulling that trigger on him. Ever. Even Mauer, a top-10 pick to many after his similarly ridiculous 2009 campaign -- he bashed 28 home runs and won his third batting title and AL MVP honors -- was overrated in fantasy and proved to be, while valuable in fantasy thereafter, not quite that valuable.

I have Posey ranked firmly in my fourth round, where I have little chance of acquiring him, but that's just fine with me because I view his 2012 first-half performance (.289, 10 HRs, 43 RBIs) as far more repeatable than his closing run (.423 BABIP!). Plus, nobody consistently hits .433 for the season against left-handed pitching, and even if he's totally healthy today, expecting any catcher to annually see 500-plus at-bats is also dangerous. In fact, no current catcher has accomplished even this seemingly reachable feat in each of the past three seasons, including the ones who see action at other positions. Catchers tend to suffer all kinds of nicks and injuries, even if they play through it, and it absolutely affects offensive performance.

So go ahead and take Posey in Round 2; what could possibly go wrong? Here are other players that, like Posey, are in some cases awesome in their own right and certainly players I would take later, but I wouldn't take them anywhere near where they're going in ESPN live drafts. Under the circumstances, they get the dubious distinction of making my "Do Not Draft" list.

Michael Bourn, OF, Cleveland Indians: Bourn is one of those names you'll see here annually. Simply put, he's overrated in fantasy. Last season he stole 42 bases, which is still nice, but a far cry from the 58 bases he averaged per year from 2009-11. He's a two-category guy (steals, runs) and that's it, but at least he's not going 33rd overall, as he did in 2012. If you don't get power in the first 10 rounds, you're chasing it the rest of the draft and season. I'll take any number of 30-plus steal guys who lack power at least 10 rounds later, such as Ben Revere, Juan Pierre, Coco Crisp, Emilio Bonifacio and Everth Cabrera.

Craig Kimbrel, RP, Atlanta Braves: Again, I appreciate all he does; he's the best closer in baseball. But I just cannot fathom taking a closer over a potential top-10 starting pitcher such as Yu Darvish or annual, consistent offensive stalwarts such as Matt Holliday and Brandon Phillips, which is happening in ESPN live drafts (Kimbrel is going 41st). I'll take reputable save options such as Addison Reed and Greg Holland 10 rounds later and do just fine. By the way, I might as well add Jonathan Papelbon, Mariano Rivera and any other top-five closer going in the top 100 to this section, because I'm still drafting more versatile fantasy options then.

Mark Trumbo, 1B/OF, Los Angeles Angels: Sometimes a fantasy owner is so desperate for power that he'll take it no matter the cost. Even I will eventually. Just not in the first 10 rounds. When I see Trumbo, I see tremendous downside in batting average, as his barely-.200 mark the final two months of last season proved. Why do I buy Trumbo's second half but not Posey's, you may ask? They couldn't be more different circumstances. Posey has to regress in batting average, just as many expect Mike Trout to. With Trumbo, his first half was the anomaly, and unsustainable based on his skill set and complete avoidance of drawing walks. In the second half he walked less, whiffed a lot more and had eight extra-base hits total from Aug. 1 on. Trumbo isn't even Josh Willingham to me, though he's going earlier in drafts, in the top 100. I'd gladly wait nine rounds for Nick Swisher instead.

Mark Teixeira and Curtis Granderson, 1B/OF, New York Yankees: I liked Teixeira's value before his latest wrist injury cropped up, but no longer. With Granderson, I'd need much convincing to select a guy we know isn't likely to hit as high as .250 in the first five rounds. Today, I wouldn't take either in the first 12 rounds. I keep hearing how they'll just automatically hit once they return from wrist/arm woes in May, but I question that, and even with the overall bar lowered on what it takes to contend in a normal fantasy league in batting average, I avoid batting average-killers.

Others I do not figure to be drafting, based on ADP:

Catchers: Matt Wieters, Victor Martinez, Russell Martin.
Corner infield: Ryan Zimmerman, Aramis Ramirez, Chris Davis, Todd Frazier.
Middle infield: Danny Espinosa, Dan Uggla, Marco Scutaro, Derek Jeter.
Outfield: Josh Hamilton, Melky Cabrera, Carlos Gomez, Carl Crawford, Colby Rasmus.
Starting pitcher: Roy Halladay (sorry, fellow Phillies fans), James Shields, Wade Miley, Mike Minor, Jaime Garcia, Tommy Milone, Matt Garza.
Relief pitchers: Jim Johnson, Joel Hanrahan, Huston Street, Jonathan Broxton, Carlos Marmol.

Tune in Monday as I begin my sleeper tour in this space!

HacheMan · Mar 17, 2013

Ten players to pass on

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

You've read my likes, now let's discuss my dislikes.

Everyone has dislikes. (Well, except for Facebook, I'm told.)

For me, that list includes the save rule, this rash of "bunt-itis" in the World Baseball Classic, two-and-three home-field arrangements in playoff series (how is that an "advantage"?!) and, of all things, hot dogs.

I know, I know, you're thinking: "What?! A baseball writer who dislikes hot dogs?! They're a ballpark staple!"

Believe it.

I cherish all the other ballpark traditions: That first view of that perfect grass, the crack of the bat, the roar of the crowd … but give me anything on the menu before the ordinary hot dog, especially one slathered in mustard.

Bleagh! I must admit, I just don't like the taste.

It's that same feeling -- the "bleagh," or the word I use for extreme dislikes -- that applies to fantasy baseball player valuation. One cannot succeed in this game without opinions, including extreme ones; you're not going to enjoy this experience unless you can formulate your own opinion on players.

This column discusses my dislikes, a group of players selected not because I'd never draft them -- in the same vein, one can hardly make it through the summer BBQ season without settling for at least one hot dog -- but rather because I view them as less valuable than their perceived value, or their ADP (average draft position), or their place in our group ranks. Some of them, where noted, I'd scarcely draft at all. They are players I plan to avoid if given the chance … much as I would the hot dog.

These are my "Bleagh" players for 2013.

[h=3]Josh Hamilton, OF, Los Angeles Angels[/h]
The bold one is right off the top, and I'll be clear that in no way does this mean that I will not draft Josh Hamilton under any circumstances -- I did rank him my No. 29 player, after all. The point is that, given comparable options at the draft table, I'm going to avoid Hamilton if at all possible.

Hamilton's final 2012 statistics -- .285-43-128 AVG-HR-RBI and the No. 6 spot overall on our Player Rater -- masked two sizable risk factors surrounding him. One is his injury history: He has made five trips to the DL in his six big-league seasons, two of which also were ended prematurely by injuries costing a 15-plus-game absence (non-DL injuries), and has averaged 123 games played per year.

The other is a disturbingly large decline in his contact rate. Hamilton's 71.2 percent number in 2012 was 13th-worst among 144 batting title contenders, but it's more than that. Per our pitch-tracking tool, he had a 36 percent miss rate on swings, tops among qualifiers and the fourth-highest rate in the four years in which we have data (2009-12). And, per FanGraphs, his 20.0 percent swing-and-miss rate -- that's the percentage of total pitches on which a batter swings and misses -- was the highest number in the 11 seasons for which they had data (2002-12), and it represented a 6.4 percent increase, again, the largest such number for any qualified season in those 11 seasons.

Granted, Hamilton's number in the category should regress somewhat to the mean, but only seven of the 25 players to suffer a 2 percent or greater increase in FanGraphs' swinging-strike rate from one year to the next had a decrease of at least 2 percent the third year, and only one -- Barry Bonds, from 2003-04 -- had a decrease of at least 4 percent. Hamilton, who turns 32 in May, might well be the 162-strikeout (or more) hitter we saw last season, and his days of coming even close to .300 batting averages are probably behind him.

To illustrate my concern, let's have a little fun with sample sizes. Here are two players' statistics in the final two-thirds (104 games) of their teams' schedules -- the most recent 104 games played by these players:

Player A: 98 G, .248/.324/.496 rates, 22 HR, 71 RBI, 2 SB, 63 R
Player B: 103 G, .249/.332/.504 rates, 22 HR, 64 RBI, 6 SB, 60 R

Player A is Hamilton. Player B is Jay Bruce, going 22 spots later on average in live drafts.

[h=3]Tommy Hanson, SP, Los Angeles Angels[/h]I'm piling on the Angels, I know, though for the record, I picked them as my American League West champions! In Hanson's case, I'm concerned about his injury history -- and future -- much the way I was about Brian Wilson's a year ago. Frankly, I'm not even willing to draft him in a mixed league, and it'd take a severely deflated price for me to take him in an AL-only league.

Hanson's declining fastball velocity is troubling: He averaged 89.6 mph with it last season, down by three full mph from his 2010 number (92.6), and his OPS allowed with the pitch (.925) represented a more than 200-point increase over 2010 (.722). As a result, he has increasingly leaned upon his slider, throwing it a career-high 29 percent of the time in 2012, and that's a worry for a pitcher with his history of shoulder issues as well as what was a more violent delivery before he made some tweaks at the beginning of last season. There's a reason Hanson cost the Angels only Jordan Walden; I think it's that both they and the Atlanta Braves, his former team, knew that Hanson's risk level has risen pretty high.

[h=3]Russell Martin, C, Pittsburgh Pirates[/h]
Martin could be the player at greatest risk for winding up sunk cost; every dollar you spend on him might go toward adversely impacting your team. At surface glance he's a .260 lifetime hitter who batted .236 in his past four seasons; upon closer examination he has batted beneath .275 in all but two of his past 18 months (50-plus plate appearance minimum), showing how consistently poor he has been in the category. Another way to put it: He has accrued negative value in terms of batting average per our Player Rater in each of the past four years, meaning that his primary contribution is in home runs. And here's the problem with him in the power department: Last season, he had 10 home runs to right field at Yankee Stadium, which is directionally speaking the most favorable spot for power in all of baseball. Per Hittrackeronline.com, seven of those 10 homers wouldn't have exited any other park, and nine would've left less than a third of the majors' 30 ballparks, and now he'll play his home games at PNC Park -- a much more pitching-friendly venue. We might be looking at a .230-hitting, eight-homer source.

[h=3]Joel Hanrahan, RP, Boston Red Sox[/h]
The Red Sox this winter took a chance on being able to correct Hanrahan's control issues of 2012, specifically in the season's second half, and thus far this spring it appears they've made little progress: Four innings, four walks. If this is who Hanrahan is, then here's his downside: He had a 4.61 walks-per-nine innings ratio in 2008-09 combined, his first two full seasons as a reliever, and the result was a 4.31 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Frankly, the reason he was so good in 2011 was that he had easily the lowest walk rate of his career (2.10 per nine) as well as a ground-ball rate above 50 percent. In no other season could he claim that to be true, and typically, he's too susceptible to untimely home runs when he's not pitch-perfect. The worst part about Hanrahan arriving in Boston is that there are plenty of deserving ninth-inning alternatives if the "experiment" fails; this is not a bullpen that will afford patience with him.

[h=3]Colby Rasmus, OF, Toronto Blue Jays[/h]
You might buy Rasmus because he's 26 years old and in his physical prime, and he had that nice first half of 2012: .259/.328/.494 and 17 home runs.

I'll stay away because before 2012, he had never shown any ability to hit breaking pitches (curveballs and sliders, specifically), and after thriving in that regard the first half of last season, he gave back all of his gains and then some during the second half. Rasmus batted .116 with 36 strikeouts in 70 PAs that ended on a curveball or slider the second half of last year, and he also regressed badly against left-handers (.116 AVG, 31.1 K%) during that time. The only legitimate cases that can be made for him taking a step forward are that he's "in his prime" and that his supporting cast has improved, possibly boosting his runs/RBI potential. I'd argue that he might fall in a straight platoon with Rajai Davis before May.

[h=3]Bruce Rondon, RP, Detroit Tigers
Somehow it seems imprudent for a World Series hopeful to use a 22-year-old pitcher with a 5.10 walks-per-nine innings ratio in his minor league career, as well as zero games' big league experience, as its closer. Rondon might possess powerful stuff -- he topped 100 mph with his fastball during the Arizona Fall League -- but he lacks secondary stuff and rarely knows where his pitches are going. He was touched up early during the exhibition season and now has five walks in 5 2/3 innings, and it's not as though the Tigers are barren of alternatives: Phil Coke handled the job fine during the 2012 postseason, Octavio Dotel has past closer experience and Joaquin Benoit has been solid in a setup capacity. Every season has some closer roles turned over by Tax Day; Rondon would be tops on my list.

<H3>Danny Espinosa, 2B/SS, Washington Nationals</H3>
He's a batting average risk, having posted the seventh-worst walk-per-strikeout rate (0.24) and sixth-worst miss rate on swings (32 percent) last season, and in his two seasons as a big league starter, Espinosa has never put together a single, carry-your-fantasy-team-by-himself month. This is a streaky player who requires patience, one whose only real fantasy contributions are his 20-20 potential in homers and steals, and one who has a major risk factor potentially standing in his path: He'll play through a torn left (non-throwing) rotator cuff this season, an injury that would require a two-month rehabilitation process if he requires surgery during the year.

<H3>Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants</H3>As Jack Parkman once said, "new haircut, same dead arm." Perhaps Lincecum's drafting owners are expecting a similar result to that referenced Parkman at-bat in "Major League II," except over the course of a season rather than a singular at-bat. The problem is that any ADP that places Lincecum in the top 30 starting pitchers makes him a tenuous investment; I think there's a very real possibility that the 2012 second-half Lincecum is the real one. While his critics historically questioned whether his physically taxing delivery might lead to future injuries, it appears that all it has done is cost him some velocity on his fastball -- he averaged 90.3 mph with it last season, after averaging 92.2 mph with it in 2011 -- making it easier for hitters to sit on his secondary stuff. Lincecum had nine quality starts, a 3.83 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 8.66 K's per nine ratio in 15 second-half starts, which look a lot like Matt Moore's full-year numbers.

Moore was the No. 65 starting pitcher on last year's Player Rater.

<H3>Mike Napoli, C/1B, Boston Red Sox</H3>
Napoli was one of my write-ups in our Staff Sleepers and Busts, so I won't steal any of the facts I cited there. (Fortunately, I didn't go all next-level there.)

So, let's get geeky: Last season, Napoli batted .227, nearly 100 points beneath his .320 mark of 2011. His BABIP, meanwhile, was .273, 71 points beneath his .344 mark. But that difference on balls in play was almost entirely tied up in soft contact; his .204 BABIP on those last season was almost spot-on with the .199 major league average. In other words, Napoli's 2011 looks like the clear outlier, which makes sense considering how similar his 2010 and 2012 numbers were. He lost two years on his free-agent deal this winter after a hip condition was revealed; considering the depth of the catcher position in mixed leagues, there's no reason to take such a substantial risk within the top 10 at the position.

<H3>Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers</H3>
Ramirez has missed the past two weeks of spring training with a knee injury, he's 34 years old and he has a history of awful starts to the season. Consider: He's a .235/.299/.370 hitter in the months of April and May the past three years, but .310/.363/.571 in the final four months. Ramirez's fly-ball rate also has declined in each of the past three seasons, to the point where FanGraphs' listed 42.5 percent number represented his lowest since 2005. Perhaps he's not due a substantial drop-off, but with his advancing age and injuries thus far this spring, as well as a relatively deep third-base pool, why take the chance on him within the top 100 players?

[/h]

HacheMan · Mar 17, 2013

And the best SP value picks are ...

By Mike Sheets | Special to ESPN.com

Prior to the 2012 season, Blue Jays starting pitcher R.A. Dickey ranked just 76th among starting pitchers in our preseason rankings and went undrafted in many leagues last spring. He, of course, went on to finish the season as the No. 1 pitcher in fantasy baseball. While Dickey is obviously an extreme example, he wasn't the only hurler who made a significant impact on fantasy leagues last year despite receiving very little attention on draft day. Ryan Vogelsong ranked 85th in our preseason rankings and finished the year 30th among starting pitchers on the Player Rater, A.J. Burnett ranked 124th and finished 26th, and Kyle Lohse ranked 95th and finished 12th, just to name a few.

This happens every season, of course. We might not see a pitcher climb all the way to the No. 1 spot after going largely unnoticed in drafts this season, but there certainly will be many undrafted players who go on to be coveted fantasy commodities. In looking at starting pitchers who, according to our live draft results, are being drafted outside the top 75 at the position, here are three hurlers who have a very good chance at greatly exceeding their draft-day value in fantasy this season:

[h=4]Alex Cobb[/h][h=5]ESPN SP rank: 66[/h]ESPN live drafts
• SPs: 79th/Overall: 229.4
• 26.1 percent ownership


[h=3]Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays[/h]
I tagged Cobb as my starting pitcher sleeper this year, as did a couple of my ESPN colleagues, so his inclusion here shouldn't come as a surprise. Even so, the Rays hurler deserves more respect than he's getting, which, according to recent live draft data, isn't much.

While Cobb's numbers last season were solid, his performance didn't exactly move the needle in standard fantasy leagues. In 23 starts, he finished 11-9 with a 4.03 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 106 strikeouts in 136 1/3 innings, which ranked him 79th among starting pitchers on the Player Rater. All in all, it was a fairly forgettable performance from a fantasy perspective. The good news, though, is that there's more to look forward to from the 25-year-old in 2013.

Last season's 7.0 strikeout rate and 2.6 walk rate were strong. However, over 228 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, he sported a 9.6 K/9 rate, suggesting there's even more strikeout potential here. He already boosted his K/9 rate in the second half last year, going from 6.3 before the All-Star break to 7.5 after, so another step up in the strikeout department in 2013 wouldn't be a surprise.

Even more encouraging is how Cobb finished the 2012 season. In his last seven starts, he went 5-2 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Five of those seven starts came against playoff teams (the Rangers, Yankees, Orioles and A's), while the other two came against the Red Sox, certainly no slouch. It's a small sample size, sure, but it tells us two things: (1) He didn't fade late in the season despite amassing a career-high 177 2/3 innings between the majors and Triple-A; and (2) He was unfazed by pitching in the American League East, a good sign for a young pitcher. All told, he was 5-2 with a 2.77 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in eight starts last year against his AL East rivals.
Cobb's 58.8 ground ball percentage last season was the third-highest rate in baseball among hurlers with at least 130 innings (Trevor Cahill and Derek Lowe ranked first and second, respectively), and Tropicana Field is one of the game's most pitcher-friendly venues in terms of suppressing home runs (24th, according to Park Factors), runs (23rd) and hits (26th). So not only is there significant upside with Cobb, who is reportedly working on adding a cutter to his repertoire this spring, but he should have a high floor as well.

Finally, while we can all agree that spring training stats don't mean much most of the time, the fact the right-hander holds a 1.29 ERA with an 18-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 14 spring innings certainly does nothing to dampen his 2013 outlook. Truth be told, it only makes him more intriguing.

[h=4]Marco Estrada[/h][h=5]ESPN SP rank: 65[/h]ESPN live drafts
• SPs: 80th/Overall: 229.5
• 64.8 percent ownership



[h=3]Marco Estrada, Milwaukee Brewers[/h]
If you weren't paying close attention, you probably missed what Estrada did in 2012. After all, he wasn't exactly a key cog in many fantasy pitching staffs. He finished the season with only five wins, a total that 151 pitchers surpassed, and he ranked just 63rd among starting pitchers on the Player Rater.

In 29 games (23 starts) with Milwaukee in 2012, Estrada posted a 3.64 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. That's all well and good, but that's not why the 29-year-old is here. He's here because he sported a 9.3 K/9 rate and a 1.9 BB/9 rate in those 29 outings. By themselves, those are elite marks. Together? Well, they're something special. Among pitchers with at least 130 innings, Estrada's 4.9 strikeout-to-walk ratio was the third-highest mark in baseball last year, behind only Cliff Lee and Kris Medlen. As a starter, Estrada's 5.3 K/BB ratio was even better. Over the past three seasons, only three starting pitchers (110 innings minimum) -- Lee, Roy Halladay and Dan Haren -- have posted a better K/BB ratio.

The improvement Estrada displayed over the second half last year is also noteworthy. He struggled with home runs in the first half, allowing 1.9 home runs per nine innings. However, he cut that to 0.7 after the All-Star break, as he surrendered just two gopherballs in August and September combined, and he generated more ground balls as the season went on. He also held a 2.92 ERA and 0.92 WHIP at home, which should ease any concerns over him calling the hitter-friendly Miller Park home.

While Estrada took a step to another level last year, keep in mind that he posted an 8.6 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 92 2/3 innings (mostly in relief) with the Brewers in 2011, so it's not as though last year's numbers came completely out of nowhere. In other words, there's reason to think the skills he showcased in 2012 are sustainable, even if common perception is that he doesn't possess top-of-the-rotation type stuff.

Of the three hurlers highlighted in this column, Estrada is the most popular; he's being drafted in more leagues than he's not. Nonetheless, this is still a guy who has shown top-level skills and can be drafted in the last couple of rounds in mixed leagues. That's a buying opportunity, folks.

[h=4]Erasmo Ramirez[/h][h=5]ESPN SP rank: 108[/h]ESPN live drafts
• SPs: 132nd/Overall: 260+
• 0.3 percent ownership



[h=3]Erasmo Ramirez, Seattle Mariners[/h]While Cobb and Estrada are at least getting attention in some drafts, Ramirez, who won only one game but posted a 3.36 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 2012, is getting almost no attention. But that's a good thing. For those looking to secure him in the final round or two, his anonymity is a positive.

Pinpoint control has long been the 22-year-old's calling card. Over 532 minor league innings, he sported a pristine 1.4 BB/9 mark. That skill has largely carried over to the big leagues, as Ramirez sported a 1.8 mark in 16 appearances (eight starts) with Seattle last year.

While Ramirez has never been a huge strikeout guy, he misses enough bats to matter (7.1 K/9 in the minors; 7.3 K/9 with the Mariners). He doesn't have an overpowering fastball (average velocity of 92.8 mph last year), but his changeup and slider help make up for it, as both graded out very well last year. In fact, according to fangraphs.com, both pitches ranked top-10 in baseball (50 innings minimum) in terms of runs saved per 100 pitches thrown. Simply put, despite his impeccable control, he's not merely a control artist.

Had Ramirez pitched enough innings to qualify (which isn't really fair, considering he came roughly 100 innings short, but bear with me), his 4.0 K/BB ratio would've ranked just outside the top five in baseball. And if we account only for Ramirez's time as a starter last season, his 5.1 K/BB is even more impressive. Yes, we are dealing with a small sample size here, which can often be misleading, but these numbers again correlate well with what he did in his minor league career (4.9 K/BB). Thus I'm inclined to believe they're real and repeatable, making him a vastly undervalued commodity on draft day.

HacheMan · Mar 18, 2013

Sleepers: Marlins' Ruggiano fits the bill

Eric Karabell

What Miami Marlins outfielder Justin Ruggiano accomplished last season was a testament not only to perseverance and making good on opportunity, but also how interesting minor league numbers, even for older fellows not given the top prospect tag, can translate to the big leagues. After all, Ruggiano was a long-time fixture buried in the Tampa Bay Rays' organization who hit for modest power and stole enough bases to matter, albeit with a few too many strikeouts. When given the chance to show his skills regularly in 2012, that's precisely what he did -- decent homers and steals rates, with a lot of K's -- aiding many a fantasy owner in the process.
As we begin "Sleeper Week" here in this blog, Ruggiano was one of the first players I wanted to speak about because I view him as undervalued. I had actually followed his progress for years, my interest piqued originally by the rare 20-homer, 20-steal minor league season at Triple-A Durham way back in 2007. Ruggiano was 25 then, and whiffed 151 times, so he wasn't viewed as a great prospect. However, he kept hitting and running while repeating Triple-A annually, got a few call-ups, but pretty much fell off the radar screen. I always wanted to see the guy get a chance, which is why I didn't hesitate to recommend him and add him to my teams when he got that chance and produced.

<OFFER>"I just had to wait for opportunity," Ruggiano, a month before his 31st birthday, told me a few days ago over the phone from Jupiter, Fla. "There were times I thought about what I would do after baseball, when to call it quits. There was nothing else I could do in the minors. But I got a chance, an extended opportunity, and it was so refreshing. It helped me elevate my game. I don't assume anything when it comes to a job now, but I'm coming off a good year and I opened some eyes."</OFFER>
He sure did, though some of those eyes still remain awfully skeptical. First, let's focus on the positive. Even if Ruggiano won't admit it, his role as the team's starting center fielder and potential No. 4 or 5 hitter protecting slugger Giancarlo Stanton certainly seems secure. After all, Ruggiano hit .313 for the Marlins in only 288 at-bats in 2012, with 13 home runs, 23 doubles and 14 stolen bases. That's pretty strong work for less than half a season and awfully refreshing for fantasy owners. The Marlins aren't exactly an All-Star team this season, so he'll play. Still, Ruggiano earned this. Only 10 players produced both 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases in 2012, and Ruggiano was well on his way. Of course, he had shown those skills for years, so he wasn't surprised.
"I thought I could transition to the majors," he said. "My chances with Tampa Bay were few and far between. I would get called up, pinch hit here and there, never get a chance to play two weeks straight. Sometimes people get lost in the shuffle. Tampa Bay had a solid outfield the whole time I was with them. I always felt I could do it, but seeing big league pitching was the only way to really know I could do it."
Many fantasy owners -- and those who analyze for a living, too! -- don't believe Ruggiano is anything close to a sleeper, and that his numbers will surely not be repeated with a full season of at-bats. My answer: I don't expect the batting average will, but the power/speed combo is legit. For example, while Ruggiano hit .296 in parts of nine minor league seasons, it's tough to do that in the majors while striking out, on average, about once per game. The guy is going to swing and miss. Ruggiano's BABIP for Miami was a ridiculous .401, and .425 versus right-handed pitching, far from sustainable, and pitchers appeared to catch up to him in September, when he hit .264 with nary a home run.
"I had a few nagging injuries late in the season, but it's not an excuse," said Ruggiano, who left the Rays via free agency in January 2012, signed with the Houston Astros, was demoted to Triple-A, then was traded to Miami in late May and hit .400 in 50 June at-bats. "I missed a week in September. Sometimes I was pitched to differently, and I had to make adjustments. In the end, I had a good feel for the plan of attack."
ESPN Fantasy projects Ruggiano to hit .270 with 15 home runs, 55 RBIs and 16 stolen bases. This all seems reasonable to me, but he could have the counting numbers by the start of August, too. Ruggiano's batting average should take a hit, perhaps to the .250 range, but I'm always tempted by the 20-homer/20-steal options. I rank Ruggiano among my top 50 outfielders, a top-200 pick. I project him better than Jayson Werth, for example, but look at ADP, and the two aren't even close. Others I like Ruggiano over, thanks to the 20/20 possibilities, include Nick Markakis, Colby Rasmus, Michael Brantley, Cameron Maybin, Ryan Ludwick, Starling Marte and his teammate Logan Morrison. Are any of them winning a batting title? No. I asked Ruggiano about his statistical expectations and whether he had personal goals, and Ruggiano was honest.
"Mainly I want to stay healthy all year," Ruggiano chuckled. For full disclosure, he missed the first few weeks of spring training because of a back problem, but he's active now, contributing a sacrifice fly as the No. 5 hitter in Sunday's win over the St. Louis Cardinals. "I think stealing 20 bases is not a stretch. I'm not the fastest guy in the league, but I'm smart enough to know when to go, get a feel for what a pitcher is going to throw, fastball or curve, pick and choose when to run. [Carl] Crawford and [Michael] Bourn can run whenever they want; I have to pick and choose. Home runs are a different story. We play in a bigger ballpark, so I have no goal there, but I think they'll come."
Yeah, I think they'll come, too. And let Ruggiano serve as an example that fantasy owners should keep an eye on those minor league numbers, even for the "older" fellows. Sometimes all they need is big league at-bats.
Other Marlins: While Stanton is the only member of the Marlins currently going in the first 20 rounds of ESPN average live drafts, don't forget about outfielder Juan Pierre, closer Steve Cishek, catcher Rob Brantly and right-handers Nate Eovaldi, Jacob Turner and Henderson Alvarez. Pierre and Cishek are the most obvious options for standard formats; Pierre stole 37 bases for the Philadelphia Phillies last season in fewer than 400 at-bats. Now he's slated to lead off and play every day. In 2010, he stole 68 bases for the Chicago White Sox. I'm not saying Pierre does that again, but I project 40 steals, 75 runs and a safe batting average. It's not Bourn, but in Round 22, that's awesome value. Cishek isn't the safest of closers, but he was effective last season. Tall veteran Jon Rauch is the likely handcuff, but I like hard-throwing right-hander A.J. Ramos, who had 74 saves in the minors over the past three seasons, to eventually get a chance. Grab him in a dynasty format. Brantly is suitable for multi-catcher formats, and the team seems to like the lefty hitter batting cleanup between Stanton and Ruggiano, which is enticing. While I don't expect Eovaldi, Turner or Alvarez to be great, any of them can do what disappointing Ricky Nolasco did, which has value in NL-only formats. Alvarez moves from the AL to the NL, and that generally means some strikeout growth is pending.

HacheMan · Mar 18, 2013

Why Wieters is not a top-5 catcher

By Brian Gramling | Special to ESPN.com

As a lifelong Baltimore Orioles fan having grown up just a few miles from Memorial Stadium, I was raised on "The Oriole Way," which Wikipedia defines as "a belief that hard work, professionalism and a strong understanding of fundamentals were the keys to success at the major league level." O's fans loved the scrappy, overachiever types such as Rich Dauer, Rick Dempsey and Lenn Sakata who couldn't hit their weight but still helped the team win games.

Matt Wieters also abides by The Oriole Way; he is a true professional who shows up ready to play and always gives 100 percent. In doing so, he has developed into a solid defensive catcher and one tough cookie, as all but one of his 467 career starts over four major league seasons has been behind the plate. He knows how to handle all types of pitchers, he switch-hits, and he was instrumental in the team's surprising playoff run last season.

Despite his unquantifiable value to this team -- the word "intangible" is so overused -- Wieters is actually overvalued in the world of fantasy baseball. As of March 17, he is ESPN.com's No. 3 catcher in fantasy baseball, including the top dog in the American League, ahead of such catcher-eligible players as Joe Mauer, Carlos Santana, Victor Martinez and Mike Napoli, to name a few. He is also being drafted as the No. 3 catcher in ESPN.com's Live Draft Results, with an Average Draft Position (ADP) of 60.2. For 12-team leagues, that means you have to spend a fifth-round pick to secure him. Sleeper backstops such as Salvador Perez, whose value was spelled out nicely in a Keith Lipscomb Spring Fever piece earlier this spring, are going 10 rounds later.

Let's take a look at just how Wieters has stacked up with the aforementioned catcher-eligible American Leaguers above, players I think should all be drafted ahead of Wieters (except for Napoli, but only because of his bad hip):

[h=4]Average season stats, 2010-2012[/h]

Player	AB	BA	HR	RBI	Runs	SB	OPS
Matt Wieters	491	.253	19	69	59	1	.749
Joe Mauer	450	.315	7	63	69	3	.836
Carlos Santana	403	.247	17	59	60	4	.806
Victor Martinez	517	.317	16	91	70	2	.847
Mike Napoli	391	.261	27	66	62	3	.875

As you can see from the table above, Wieters' OPS doesn't even sniff these others players, falling at least 57 points below every other player. And despite having the second-most at-bats of this quintet, he's dead last in runs and steals. The only reason his RBIs are stronger than most is because of his sheer volume of opportunities in an improving Orioles lineup, not because he is a clutch hitter.

In fact, a more apt description of Wieters would actually be that he's unclutch. In his career, he has hit .210 with two outs and runners in scoring position in a sizable 229 at-bats. And when he's in a "late-inning pressure situation" with two outs, Wieters is a dreadful 4-for-29 (.138 average) with no extra-base hits. It's at least worth noting that in the biggest series of his life (last year's ALDS loss to the hated New York Yankees), Wieters batted .150, going 3-for-20 in the five-game set, with few instances of hard-hit balls.

According to Baseball-Reference.com, Wieters' career has been most similar to a group that includes current backstops Chris Iannetta, Geovany Soto and other undesirable fantasy leaguers of the past seven years, such as Bill Haselman, Kenji Johjima, Todd Pratt, Chris Widger and Javier Valentin. Granted, the 26-year-old Wieters will undoubtedly have a much better career than any of these guys, already sporting two All-Star appearances at such a young age, but comparison to this crew isn't very flattering.

Pitching in the AL East is chock full of tough pitchers, such as David Price, CC Sabathia and Jon Lester, and the Toronto Blue Jays add R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle to that mix this season. Considering how terrible Wieters has hit north of the border in his career -- he has a .186/.266/.340 slash line in 97 at-bats at Rogers Centre -- fantasy owners can justify benching Wieters for the three series he plays in Toronto this season (May 23-26, June 21-23, Sept. 13-15).

As I wrote in the 2013 catchers preview, this position is deeper this season than in recent years, especially in the power category; nine backstops slugged 20-plus homers last season, and 24 catchers reached double digits in taters. This all-encompassing power tends to diminish the position-scarcity-value argument of drafting Wieters earlier than his true value. I'm stunned when I see the quality of players that drafters are passing up for Wieters. This is a list that includes 20-homer/20-steal guys like Ian Desmond, speedster Michael Bourn, slugger Aramis Ramirez and solid starters Chris Sale, Roy Halladay, Mat Latos and Jordan Zimmermann. Wow!

Especially as an Orioles fan, I have been hearing how great this guy is since he was the fifth overall pick of the 2007 amateur draft, but Wieters' offensive numbers really haven't been that special. His counting stats may look good against his peers, especially the power, as he typically logs 10-15 more games than the average starting catcher, but his quantitative marks are nothing to brag about. Take a look at where Wieters ranked in batting average, OPS, Runs Created and slugging percentage among the 10 catchers who qualified for a batting title in 2012:

Batting average: .249 (10th of 10)
OPS: .764 (9th)
Runs Created per 27 outs: 4.80 (9th)
Slugging percentage: .435 (7th)

Wieters had the worst batting average of the bunch at .249, a group that includes players not close to him on anybody's fantasy rankings, such as A.J. Ellis, Ryan Doumit and A.J. Pierzynski. Wieters' OPS and runs created was better than only Jesus Montero, and though Wieters is coveted for his power, his slugging percentage was a subpar seventh among this group. And let's remember that this was Wieters' best major league season so far.

I'm not trying to depict Baltimore's franchise player as a bum or say that he'll never be a superstar fantasy option. I'm just saying, until he proves otherwise, he's not a top-five fantasy catcher or a worthy top-80 pick in standard fantasy leagues for 2013. In 12-team, one-active-catcher leagues, he should be taken more like the eighth round. While ESPN.com optimistically projects Wieters to produce fine numbers -- .266 batting average, 29 homers, 93 RBIs and 70 runs -- I'm much more cautious with his projections: .253 average, 22 homers, 82 RBIs and 62 runs. Those numbers are much closer to his past performance. Like all O's fans across the nation, I'd love to be wrong here, but I'd have to see it to believe it.

HacheMan · Mar 19, 2013

Deeeeep sleepers: Carp, Teheran ...

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

the years, the definition of "sleeper" has substantially widened.
Fantasy owners -- even seasoned ones -- these days apply the label to any pick in the later rounds, or any player they think will be drafted later than he should -- including a third-round pick who lingers until, say, the fifth round.

But for the purpose of today's column, let's revert the term to its origins: A true "sleeper" is a player who, almost completely unnoticed at the time of your draft, suddenly becomes a valuable fantasy asset. The point is to identify completely unfamiliar players with the potential to quickly develop into lineup mainstays.

To use the 2012 season as an example, Kris Medlen (31st on the Player Rater), Norichika Aoki (76th), Tom Wilhelmsen (100th), Wade Miley (106th), Ryan Cook (120th) and Tyler Colvin (143rd) would've qualified as true sleepers. They'd have cost you no more than $5 in a singular (AL- or NL-only) league, yet turned in a profit at least as large as that, maybe even double or triple that.

I recognize that a sub-$5 player in an AL- or NL-only league probably won't register on the radar of even a 12-team mixed league. If you're in a shallower format, this list will serve as more of an in-season watch list; I recommend "Tristan's Twenty" as a source of draft-day value selections.

One other caveat: The above represents only six such examples that cracked the Player Rater 150 -- and there are only 250 players drafted in a typical ESPN 10-team standard mixed league -- so the prospects for success with this column's picks aren't great. This is hunting lottery tickets at its purest; the point is that this is supposed to be hard, because the potential payoff is massive. Before even listing a name, I'll guess that half of the picks below fail to turn in 2013 statistics worth at least twice what you paid for them. That's just how this goes.

That said, if even half of them do, their owners will probably win their respective leagues, so long as their "leading men" also perform adequately.

[h=3]Jake Arrieta, SP, Baltimore Orioles[/h]
I discussed Arrieta's skills in greater detail in my "Kings of Command" column, so let's use this space to update his quest for a rotation spot this spring: He tossed four shutout innings of two-hit, five-strikeout baseball without a walk on March 11, then another 4 2/3 scoreless frames March 16. The competition for the Orioles' fifth starter role seemingly has been narrowed down to him, Brian Matusz and Zach Britton. Arrieta's underlying numbers say he's well worth a $1 AL-only bid.

[h=3]Josh Donaldson, 3B, Oakland Athletics[/h]
Donaldson is struggling to get regular at-bats this spring and he no longer brings that attractive catcher eligibility in most fantasy leagues, but his bat possesses a bit more pop than most people realize. Following an August recall, he managed .290/.356/.489 triple-slash rates with a 40.7 percent fly ball rate and 13.8 home run/fly ball percentage in 47 games, eerily similar stats to his .285/.362/.490, 41.0 and 14.0 numbers in Triple-A in 2011 and 2012 combined. Donaldson can also steal a few bases -- he has averaged 12 swipes per 162 games as a pro -- meaning that if he emerges as even a part-timer at the hot corner, he could help AL-only squads.

[h=3]Jemile Weeks, 2B, Athletics[/h]
A bruised right shoulder has cost Weeks some critical spring action -- he hurt it March 1 and returned to game action March 14 -- but he continues to get chatter as a prominent member of the Athletics' second-base battle. A's manager Bob Melvin and hitting coach Chili Davis seem to have nothing but good things to say about the 26-year-old, and Weeks' speed and ability to draw walks makes him a handy AL-only plug-in at a precariously thin position. Even with 300 plate appearances, he could provide a sneaky 15 steals.

[h=3]Brennan Boesch, OF, New York Yankees[/h]
At $1.5 million, Boesch seems a tad pricey pickup for a player who had a .659 OPS last season. But that might convince the Yankees to be more patient with Boesch over the long haul -- remember that someone has to go once Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira heal -- and his swing is a good fit for Yankee Stadium besides. Of his 42 career homers, 24 were hit to right field and another 10 to right-center. It's not unthinkable that he could have a Raul Ibanez-2012-like season.

[h=3]Mike Carp, OF/1B, Boston Red Sox[/h]
It's well-known by now that I'm not the biggest believer in Mike Napoli, so it follows that I'd list Carp as an attractive, final-rounds-of-your-AL-only-draft pick. He has always had a bit of pop -- he had a .222 isolated power in 321 career games at the Triple-A level and a .190 mark during his best big league year of 2011 -- and he has balanced platoon splits and the ability to fill in at first base or either outfield corner. He should get at-bats.

[h=3]Eduardo Nunez, SS, Yankees[/h]
Considering the Yankees' many injury woes -- from Alex Rodriguez to Curtis Granderson to Mark Teixeira -- as well as their more frugal approach to roster construction (Kevin Youkilis was really their only big-ticket winter addition), Nunez might play a substantial role for the 2013 team, even if only as a super-utilityman. From a real-game perspective, the team might claim he has a shortstop's bat, which is why they haven't talked him up as a full-time fill-in at either third base or left field. Fantasy owners, however, know that Nunez contributes two useful things: speed, which is handy from a shortstop-eligible player, and the possibility of him picking up additional positions.

[h=3]Lucas Harrell, SP, Houston Astros[/h]
To be clear, he's not going to win many games as a member of the Astros, and his fantasy upside might be that of a matchups specialist, feasting upon the American League's bottom-half offenses. But Harrell has transformed himself into a viable big league starter, thanks to a 2.87 ERA and 7.42 strikeouts-per-nine innings ratio in 15 second-half starts last year, as well as a 56.9 percent ground ball rate in his big league career. Most Astros pitchers aren't worth your consideration; this is the rare one who is.

[h=3]Rick Porcello, SP, Detroit Tigers[/h]
This isn't a misprint: Porcello, who has a 4.59 career ERA, is still only 24 years old, and while he has never developed into the strikeout artist scouts believed he would be, he has nevertheless improved his K rate in each of the past two seasons. He also has improved his ground ball rate in similar fashion. Take note of that second point; it could be significant should he be traded to a team with a stronger infield defense. This is a "last pitcher you buy" pick for AL-only owners, but all the trade rumors make him worth the price.

[h=3]Evan Gattis, C/OF, Atlanta Braves[/h]
A dark horse candidate to make the Braves as a bench bat, Gattis has enjoyed such a productive spring that the team might want to consider him for a 50-50 split of the catching chores with Gerald Laird while Brian McCann recovers from shoulder surgery. A .308 career minor league hitter with .238 isolated power -- that's a .546 slugging percentage, to save you the math -- Gattis has batted .378 with five doubles and two homers in 37 spring at-bats. If he makes the team, this is the kind of low-cost, can't-hurt-you NL-only option I love to slot into my No. 2 catcher spot.

[h=3]Kyle Blanks, 1B/OF, San Diego Padres[/h]
He's my "fantasy kryptonite." I have been unable to resist Blanks' combination of power and walks this past half-decade. That said, if the player is bound to cost no more than $1 in an NL-only league, should one be ashamed to invest? Blanks' biggest problems have been a penchant for strikeouts and injuries; a foot issue mostly ruined his 2010 season and Tommy John surgery his 2011 season, and a shoulder issue entirely ruined his 2012. He has been raking this spring, however, and could make the team as a bench bat, where he might factor in left field long-term should Carlos Quentin get hurt.

[h=3]Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies[/h]
There was more hype surrounding Arenado a year ago, when chatter had him potentially breaking camp as the team's starter last season. After a so-so season in Double-A ball -- .285/.337/.428 rates, 12 home runs -- the buzz subsided, at least until a solid spring that has included a .793 slugging percentage. Arenado might yet be ticketed for Triple-A ball, but he'll probably see time in Colorado this summer, and there are worse places for a rookie to break in than Coors Field. He's a contact-hitting type whom NL-only owners should stash for a couple bucks.

[h=3]Jacob Turner, SP, Miami Marlins[/h]
He's having an awful spring, yes, but one thing Turner has going for him that comparably young arms struggling in March don't have is that he pitches for a team that can afford to be patient. Really, the problem is that his strikeout rate has dropped as he has climbed the competitive ladder; he averaged 7.13 K's per nine in Double-A in 2011 but has only a 5.85 rate thus far in the bigs. Command is the key, as he has a good combination of low-90s fastball, curve and slider, the latter two most likely to restore the strikeout potential he had in the lower levels, if they improve. But at least there's this: Turner's home ballpark is a pitching-friendly one, so if he's a $1 NL-only investment, he might at least warrant matchups consideration in those Marlins Park games.

[h=3]Julio Teheran, SP, Braves[/h]
The Braves' January trade of Randall Delgado practically assured Teheran the team's fifth-starter role, and Teheran's spring has done nothing but cement that status. He has made four starts, all of them superb, and has a 1.50 ERA and 18 strikeouts compared to four walks. Keith Law's No. 6 prospect overall as recently as 2011, Teheran had previously been unraveled by sketchy command and a penchant for home runs, but he's a potential high-strikeout, solid-ERA arm who merely needs to make the requisite adjustments to develop into the front-of-the-rotation arm scouts initially predicted. I'm not about to stray from my strong opinion about him just because he has been so-so in a minuscule sample of big league starts. For $3 to $4, he might be a $10-plus NL-only pitcher.

[h=3]Mark Melancon, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates[/h]
Let's not assume there are any guarantees with new closer Jason Grilli, who is 36 years old and has only five career saves. Grilli should succeed in his new role … but if he doesn't, Melancon is the most logical fallback. You might remember Melancon's miserable start to 2012 as the Red Sox's closer, but the more relevant sample to his 2013 cause was his 37-game, post-demotion stint to conclude the year: 1.05 WHIP, 4.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 63.9 left-on-base percentage that explains his bloated 4.19 ERA.

HacheMan · Mar 19, 2013

Rosenthal, Carpenter ready to help now

Eric Karabell

For years, the St. Louis Cardinals have been open to creativity in the way they construct the roster. For example, the 2006 Cardinals won a World Series with unproven Adam Wainwright thriving at closer, and in 2011 slugger Allen Craig was used at second base to get his bat into the lineup. Well, the current Cardinals boast another emerging young right-handed pitcher slated for bullpen duty and another older hitter with promise learning a new position.

<OFFER></OFFER>It's certainly reasonable to call 22-year-old pitcher Trevor Rosenthal and 27-year-old hitter Matt Carpenter fantasy sleepers, so as we continue to highlight some of the overlooked fantasy baseball options this week, let's focus on these Cardinals, because each figures to matter in deeper formats, and perhaps in standard ones as well. Sure, it might be tough to ascertain their true value not knowing how much they will play and how their roles might ultimately change, but always bet on skills, and let the roles play out.

For Rosenthal, who boasts a 100-mph fastball, power curveball and reasonable changeup, his ultimate role should be as a starter. Perhaps he's been overlooked in the shadow of heralded pitching prospects Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez, but Rosenthal had an impressive 2012 season in his own right. He succeeded at Double-A Springfield, made a few starts in Triple-A, and fanned 25 hitters in 23 big league innings. His ride culminated in dominance in the big league club's postseason: He struck out 15 Nationals and Giants in 8 2/3 innings, permitting only two hits, two walks and no runs.

Miller and Joe Kelly are battling for fifth-starter duties with Rosenthal already moved to relief, but don't assume it's a long-term assignment. Rosenthal is a strikeout pitcher and dynasty league target who could, like Wainwright, fall into saves if the opportunity arises and also has a future leading a rotation. Right-hander Jason Motte is an elite, reliable closer, but don't be surprised when Rosenthal pushes Mitchell Boggs, last year's NL leader in holds, for eighth-inning duties. In NL-only formats, a strong 75 innings can help all teams -- and then, in 2014, we could be looking at another Wainwright.

As for Carpenter, his prospect days are past him. The story with him this spring has been about learning to play second base, a position he never played growing up or in 328 minor league games, though he saw brief action there for the Cardinals in 2012. Obviously, if Carpenter beats out Daniel Descalso, Pete Kozma, Tommy Herr and anyone else the Cardinals have as options for second base, he'll become more appealing to fantasy owners, but Carpenter's already valuable since he played enough first base, third base and outfield to qualify in most leagues. And the guy can hit, which is why the Cardinals want his bat in the lineup.

Carpenter entered Tuesday hitting .415 with a 1.120 OPS this spring -- and that's not the main reason I like him, but the 10 extra-base hits and eight walks versus seven strikeouts are nice. He doesn't figure to hit for near the power Craig provides, but has enough pop to matter, and his excellent plate discipline keeps his batting average strong. Carpenter hit .299 in nearly 1,200 minor league at-bats, and last season for the Cardinals he hit .294 with 33 extra-base hits in fewer than 300 at-bats. It's also helpful that he saw 4.11 pitches per plate appearance, better than any Cardinals regular, and that could entice manager Mike Matheny to place him in the No. 2 lineup spot, where he'd score more runs.

I could see Carpenter hitting near .300 with 12-15 home runs given regular playing time. Perhaps that's not astounding for standard mixed formats, but it was worth $6 in the recent LABR NL-only auction I participated in, and if you add second-base eligibility, that number goes up. Not many players, especially at middle infield, are batting-average safe, and this is a player who wouldn't need to be platooned. A lefty hitter, Carpenter hit five of his six home runs last season off lefty pitchers. As I wrote about San Francisco Giants first baseman Brandon Belt a few weeks ago, essentially another sleeper blog entry from me, it's positive news when a lefty hitter does this and draws walks against right-handers. And like Belt, Carpenter said his defense will not affect his offense. "If I learn how to play second base and forget how to hit," Carpenter told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch over the weekend, "we're not doing anybody any good."

Whether Carpenter wins the second-base job or not -- and ultimately I think he will, but we'll see prospect Kolten Wong during the summer -- he's valuable. After all, Craig isn't a brittle player, but he did miss most of the first two months last season recovering from knee surgery, and he's been hindered by a shoulder problem this spring. In addition, third baseman David Freese has played in 100 games once in his career. Carpenter is going to see playing time and he's going to hit, so consider him in deeper mixed formats or when he achieves second-base eligibility by mid-April.

Other Cardinals: Everyone wants to know about the team's No. 1 prospect, outfielder Oscar Taveras, but I don't see how he forces his way onto the April roster unless Matt Holliday or Carlos Beltran were injured. In fact, ESPN Fantasy projects Taveras for fewer than 200 at-bats, not enough to make a major impact. He's 20 and hasn't played at Triple-A yet. In fact, 24-year-old first-base prospect Matt Adams might be the better short-term bet. Adams, who slugged .624 in 258 Triple-A Memphis at-bats last year, is having a big spring as well. Another pitcher's name to file away is that of right-hander Michael Wacha. The Cardinals have tremendous young pitching depth, which is why they'll be just fine without Chris Carpenter and Kyle Lohse.

HacheMan · Mar 19, 2013

Breakout player picks for 2013

Keith Law

Every year there are a few players whom I expect, for scouting reasons or for analytical ones, to take some kind of step or leap forward in performance. I've got eight such names for 2013, with varying degrees of confidence that I try to explain in the comments below.

One thing you'll notice is that all of these players appeared at some point on my Top 100 prospects rankings, with only one failing to appear in the top 50 at least once. That's another way of saying that the skills that made me rate the player highly as a prospect are still largely intact, but now some developmental hurdles that held him back have now cleared -- or so I hope.

[h=3]Domonic Brown | OF, Philadelphia Phillies[/h]<OFFER>The Phillies have been messing with his swing since he first emerged as a prospect, but it looks like they might have found a formula, as new hitting coach Wally Joyner has altered the position of Brown's hands. Execs and scouts are telling me Brown looks noticeably better at the plate, and better able to drive the ball. He's still well below average on defense, but if he starts hitting and the Phillies don't try to re-re-rework his swing in late April, he'll hold on to the left-field job.

[h=3]Matt Moore | LHP, Tampa Bay Rays[/h]
Moore's had a so-so spring as his velocity slowly creeps back up to normal, but I'm still confident he'll fulfill the potential that made him the top pitching prospect on my pre-2012 Top 100. Moore was better across the board in the second half last year, throwing more strikes with all three pitches and mixing in his curveball more often and more effectively. That said, I don't love reading about any pitcher showing below-normal velocity this deep into spring training, so keep an eye on reports (and Pitch f/x, when available) about his remaining starts in March.

[h=3]Chris Tillman | RHP, Baltimore Orioles[/h]
Tillman's time in purgatory was a function of lost velocity and lost command, but in the second half of 2012, his fastball ticked back up to its old levels, as it was back when he was a prospect who would run it up to 93-94 mph with the promise of more down the road.

His ERA of 2.93 wasn't supported by his peripheral stats, but I think his strikeout rate will rise now that he's working with four pitches that he'll throw in any count and is back up into the low- to mid-90s, and he could post a more legitimate ERA in the mid-3s. I'm sure someone will ask about his teammate Brian Matusz as well -- I've always believed in his off-speed stuff, but he has to be able to pitch with at least an average fastball as a starter for me to buy into him fully in that role.

[h=3]Rick Porcello | RHP, Detroit Tigers[/h]
It's not so much that he's been effective this spring -- he hadn't walked a batter in 18-plus innings as of this writing -- but that he looks better -- throwing a little harder, commanding the ball better up and down and has a little more bite on the breaking ball.

[h=3]Brett Lawrie | 3B, Toronto Blue Jays[/h]
He's dealing with an oblique strain but doing so in a smart way, sitting now so that it won't linger into the season. Once he's back, I think Lawrie's swing -- one of the best right-handed swings in baseball -- will combine with his solid-average power and above-average speed to produce a breakout season in the .290/.350/.470 range.

[h=3]Mike Minor | LHP, Atlanta Braves[/h]I'm expecting a small improvement on his overall line from last year; not as good as he was in the second half last year (2.16 ERA, .197/.242/.318 opponents' line across 87⅓ innings), but better than the near-6 ERA he had before that, something in the 3.75 ERA range. The main area for improvement is keeping the ball down and in the park, as I don't think he's going to rise to a strikeout-an-inning guy.

[h=3]Chris Heisey | OF, Cincinnati Reds[/h]
I've always thought the Reds didn't like Heisey, given how they've relegated him to super-sub duty in the outfield. But other execs have told me the Reds refused to discuss him in deals this winter, so perhaps they are likely to give him the playing time he deserves -- especially with no true center fielder on the roster. Heisey is a better pure hitter at this point than Ryan Ludwick, who isn't likely to hit 26 homers again at age 34.

[h=3]Brandon Belt | 1B, San Francisco Giants[/h]
Yes, I'm on record as saying I don't love what the Giants have done to his swing. So consider this a tepid recommendation on Belt. His hips still drift too far forward, and his head follows. Even if the small power burst in spring training is a March mirage, he has a strong approach and should be able to hit for average and doubles power, with the promise of 20-plus homers if he can keep his hips back before he gets his hands started.

And, anticipating another question, I am still a believer in Kansas City's Eric Hosmer -- but, like Belt, he has some mechanical adjustments to make to reach his full potential, which in Hosmer's case is at the All-Star level.
</OFFER>

HacheMan · Mar 19, 2013

Why Wieters is not a top-5 catcher

By Brian Gramling | Special to ESPN.com

As a lifelong Baltimore Orioles fan having grown up just a few miles from Memorial Stadium, I was raised on "The Oriole Way," which Wikipedia defines as "a belief that hard work, professionalism and a strong understanding of fundamentals were the keys to success at the major league level." O's fans loved the scrappy, overachiever types such as Rich Dauer, Rick Dempsey and Lenn Sakata who couldn't hit their weight but still helped the team win games.
Matt Wieters also abides by The Oriole Way; he is a true professional who shows up ready to play and always gives 100 percent. In doing so, he has developed into a solid defensive catcher and one tough cookie, as all but one of his 467 career starts over four major league seasons has been behind the plate. He knows how to handle all types of pitchers, he switch-hits, and he was instrumental in the team's surprising playoff run last season.

Despite his unquantifiable value to this team -- the word "intangible" is so overused -- Wieters is actually overvalued in the world of fantasy baseball. As of March 17, he is ESPN.com's No. 3 catcher in fantasy baseball, including the top dog in the American League, ahead of such catcher-eligible players as Joe Mauer, Carlos Santana, Victor Martinez and Mike Napoli, to name a few. He is also being drafted as the No. 3 catcher in ESPN.com's Live Draft Results, with an Average Draft Position (ADP) of 60.2. For 12-team leagues, that means you have to spend a fifth-round pick to secure him. Sleeper backstops such as Salvador Perez, whose value was spelled out nicely in a Keith Lipscomb Spring Fever piece earlier this spring, are going 10 rounds later.

Let's take a look at just how Wieters has stacked up with the aforementioned catcher-eligible American Leaguers above, players I think should all be drafted ahead of Wieters (except for Napoli, but only because of his bad hip):

[h=4]Average season stats, 2010-2012[/h]

Player	AB	BA	HR	RBI	Runs	SB	OPS
Matt Wieters	491	.253	19	69	59	1	.749
Joe Mauer	450	.315	7	63	69	3	.836
Carlos Santana	403	.247	17	59	60	4	.806
Victor Martinez	517	.317	16	91	70	2	.847
Mike Napoli	391	.261	27	66	62	3	.875

As you can see from the table above, Wieters' OPS doesn't even sniff these others players, falling at least 57 points below every other player. And despite having the second-most at-bats of this quintet, he's dead last in runs and steals. The only reason his RBIs are stronger than most is because of his sheer volume of opportunities in an improving Orioles lineup, not because he is a clutch hitter.

In fact, a more apt description of Wieters would actually be that he's unclutch. In his career, he has hit .210 with two outs and runners in scoring position in a sizable 229 at-bats. And when he's in a "late-inning pressure situation" with two outs, Wieters is a dreadful 4-for-29 (.138 average) with no extra-base hits. It's at least worth noting that in the biggest series of his life (last year's ALDS loss to the hated New York Yankees), Wieters batted .150, going 3-for-20 in the five-game set, with few instances of hard-hit balls.

According to Baseball-Reference.com, Wieters' career has been most similar to a group that includes current backstops Chris Iannetta, Geovany Soto and other undesirable fantasy leaguers of the past seven years, such as Bill Haselman, Kenji Johjima, Todd Pratt, Chris Widger and Javier Valentin. Granted, the 26-year-old Wieters will undoubtedly have a much better career than any of these guys, already sporting two All-Star appearances at such a young age, but comparison to this crew isn't very flattering.

Pitching in the AL East is chock full of tough pitchers, such as David Price, CC Sabathia and Jon Lester, and the Toronto Blue Jays add R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle to that mix this season. Considering how terrible Wieters has hit north of the border in his career -- he has a .186/.266/.340 slash line in 97 at-bats at Rogers Centre -- fantasy owners can justify benching Wieters for the three series he plays in Toronto this season (May 23-26, June 21-23, Sept. 13-15).

As I wrote in the 2013 catchers preview, this position is deeper this season than in recent years, especially in the power category; nine backstops slugged 20-plus homers last season, and 24 catchers reached double digits in taters. This all-encompassing power tends to diminish the position-scarcity-value argument of drafting Wieters earlier than his true value. I'm stunned when I see the quality of players that drafters are passing up for Wieters. This is a list that includes 20-homer/20-steal guys like Ian Desmond, speedster Michael Bourn, slugger Aramis Ramirez and solid starters Chris Sale, Roy Halladay, Mat Latos and Jordan Zimmermann. Wow!

Especially as an Orioles fan, I have been hearing how great this guy is since he was the fifth overall pick of the 2007 amateur draft, but Wieters' offensive numbers really haven't been that special. His counting stats may look good against his peers, especially the power, as he typically logs 10-15 more games than the average starting catcher, but his quantitative marks are nothing to brag about. Take a look at where Wieters ranked in batting average, OPS, Runs Created and slugging percentage among the 10 catchers who qualified for a batting title in 2012:

Batting average: .249 (10th of 10)
OPS: .764 (9th)
Runs Created per 27 outs: 4.80 (9th)
Slugging percentage: .435 (7th)

Wieters had the worst batting average of the bunch at .249, a group that includes players not close to him on anybody's fantasy rankings, such as A.J. Ellis, Ryan Doumit and A.J. Pierzynski. Wieters' OPS and runs created was better than only Jesus Montero, and though Wieters is coveted for his power, his slugging percentage was a subpar seventh among this group. And let's remember that this was Wieters' best major league season so far.

I'm not trying to depict Baltimore's franchise player as a bum or say that he'll never be a superstar fantasy option. I'm just saying, until he proves otherwise, he's not a top-five fantasy catcher or a worthy top-80 pick in standard fantasy leagues for 2013. In 12-team, one-active-catcher leagues, he should be taken more like the eighth round. While ESPN.com optimistically projects Wieters to produce fine numbers -- .266 batting average, 29 homers, 93 RBIs and 70 runs -- I'm much more cautious with his projections: .253 average, 22 homers, 82 RBIs and 62 runs. Those numbers are much closer to his past performance. Like all O's fans across the nation, I'd love to be wrong here, but I'd have to see it to believe it.

HacheMan · Mar 20, 2013

Loves and Hates for 2013

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

I'm in for a huge year.

No, really. It's a contract year for me, so you know I am motivated. Jason Grey is working in the majors now, so my new lineup spot can only help. Plus, the emergence of Todd Zola means I will be seeing better article ideas thrown my way, as they can't pitch them around me anymore. And the plan to use Eric Karabell and Tristan Cockcroft every Friday on the podcast will keep me fresh.
Get on board now, kids. I've got huge upside this year.
In my 100 Facts column, I dealt in facts. Stats. Undeniable, 100 percent provable, no-gray-area pieces of information.
And I talked about how all the stats used are really just opinions in disguise. How they don't tell the whole story. How they are used to distort and push the agenda of whoever is using the stats. I do it; everyone does it. You should read the article. It's pretty good. That's an opinion that has no factual basis, of course.
And it's those kind of opinions I want to talk about right now. Because non-factual opinions get thrown out all the time in fantasy, and they are even more dangerous. Dangerous because when we give opinions too much weight, it messes with our perception, and perception is what we use to make every decision we're confronted with during the draft.
Little-known fact about me: My free time is usually spent reading Proust in original French, going to the opera and participating in deep, soulful reflection among monks in a remote monastery in the farthest reaches of the Himalayas.
But every once in a while, I enjoy the celebrity gossip: reading about the trials and tribulations of the rich, beautiful and famous. And then, right back to the monks, promise. One website I absolutely love is Crazy Days and Nights. Run by a man known only as "Ent Lawyer," the site has stories, photos and news from Hollywood and elsewhere about the deeds (and misdeeds) of the famous. You'd be amazed at how addicting it is.

Among the most popular features of the site are his blind items. I don't mean like the blind items I put in my column from time to time, where I show you Player A's stats and Player B's stats and then reveal who the players are and you act all shocked to find out you've been drinking the wrong diet cola all these years. No, I mean the kind of blind item that I've also dabbled in, where I tell you a salacious story but I don't tell you who it's about. Now, if you've been reading me for a while, the first one that pops into your head is likely to be "The Actress," but the one I'm actually thinking about is one I wrote about in late May 2011.
Here is essentially what I wrote: "My friend has just gotten back from vacation, where he was hanging out with his cousin. His cousin, you see, was a former roommate of a current prominent Major League Baseball player. A current prominent Major League Baseball player who happens to be off to a very poor start this year.
"My friend tells me this: Every single night, his cousin gets a text from the player. It's always a picture, of an attractive girl in various states of undress, and it's always a different girl. My buddy saw all the texts himself, and he was impressed. He also immediately traded the player off his fantasy team."
Now, at the time the article was published, the player was hitting some 75 points below his career batting average. So far, his new team was not happy with its offseason acquisition. Not known for slow starts, so people wondered: Was this guy injured? Was he pressing to try to impress his new teammates? It was just two months, a small sample size, so maybe he was just getting unlucky. He had two more home runs in that time frame than his career average for those two months, so maybe he was trading some batting average (OK, a lot of batting average) to swing for the fences.
And no one speculated that it might be because of what I, my buddy and his cousin "knew": that the guy was going out, skirt chasing (and skirt catching) every single night, partying into the wee hours. Was dumping the guy the right move for my buddy?
We hear soft information like this all the time. He's in the best shape of his career. He's motivated. He had a great offseason. He lost weight. He added muscle. His team just traded for his best friend. He's playing for a contract. He just got paid. He's out of a big market, so now there's no pressure.
Lots of soft information, some of it hard to verify, all of it impossible to analyze in terms of how it affects the player's performance. Evan Longoria has been very public about the fact that his longtime girlfriend, Jaime Edmondson, gave birth to a baby girl a month ago. Congrats to the happy couple and baby Elle. That's awesome.
But I'd be lying if I said I had any idea of how fatherhood will affect him this season. Will it hinder him? Those first few months with a newborn can be rough in terms of sleep and pressure and figuring everything out, especially for first-time parents. But maybe it helps in a great way. Beyond happy with this amazing addition to his life, he crushes because his personal life has never been better. Maybe it has no effect at all, but the big contract he signed in the offseason adds too much pressure. Or relieves it, because he doesn't have to worry about how he'll pay for Elle's college tuition. You never know, but people can (and will) spin it a million different ways.
My buddy interpreted the skirt chaser's behavior as a negative and as the reason for his slow start and dealt him away. But from June 1 on, our party playboy in question turned it around, hit better than his career average the rest of the way and finished with one of the best home run totals of his career.
Did he curb his behavior? Did he learn to deal with it better? Did it have nothing to do with anything? Who knows? Last year the same player had the most disappointing season of his career, with lows in homers, RBIs and a dismal batting average. Since hearing this story, I'm more tuned in when I occasionally see his name in stories that seem to verify this behavior, especially when he is being linked to a female known for, among other things, enjoying spending time with athletes. So I don't doubt the story is true. I just don't know what, if any, weight to give it. My friend thought for sure he knew what weight to give it. He was wrong.
Keep in mind: Before Nov. 27, 2009, Tiger Woods had 71 career PGA wins. Since Nov. 27, 2009: five career wins. There are lots of other factors at play, of course, including injuries and the fact that Tiger started playing in 1996, but the fact remains that when Tiger was out, um, socializing quite a bit, he was also wildly productive. And then the wife found out and, well, things were different. At least on the golf course.
In our little game, every player has value. Whether he is overvalued or undervalued depends on what it costs to acquire said player. And that is largely influenced by the perception -- not the reality, mind you, but the perception of that reality -- that you and everyone in your league have of that player.
Look, there's so much we don't know that adding unsubstantiated perception skews everything even further. How we value a player is dictated by how we perceive that player. It's already tough enough to evaluate a player based on his skills and performance; why complicate it further?
My advice? Ignore everything that isn't provable. Anything that isn't a cold, hard fact. Scouting has its place, and if a source you trust tells you something based on his eyes and you want to believe it -- his new pitch has been very effective, for example -- sure, add it to the mix. But ultimately, sticking with what you know without clouding it with speculation will serve you well. And if your opinion of a player happens to be different from everyone else's because of it, well then, that's when you "love" or "hate" that player.
That's why the annual "Love/Hate" is not, I repeat, not a sleepers and busts column. Rather, it's a market-inefficiency column. With puns. "Loves" are players who I feel are going too late based on our ESPN Live Draft Results. "Hates" are players going too early. It's that simple.
Please use your brain. Just because Buster Posey is a "hate" and Salvador Perez is a "love" does not mean I would take the Royals backstop over the Giants catcher. It does mean, in regard to overall value, that I think Posey in the second round is not the best use of that pick, whereas Perez represents a significant value in the 19th.
I've tried to give you one undervalued guy and one overvalued guy in each round and to tell you where, in a vacuum, I would feel comfortable taking that player. I know, you're expecting a pun about literally drafting in a vacuum here, but I'm gonna make you wait for it just a little longer.
As usual, there are a lot more "loves" than "hates." It's hard to hate a pick in the 17th round. I mean, there's a reason he is going in the 17th, you know, and by this time in a draft, you're looking to address needs rather than wants anyway.
The bulk of this column is based on ESPN standard 10-team mixed leagues, but I threw in a few names for deeper leagues at the end of the "loves." Finally, this may seem like a lot of players, but keep in mind that there are than 750 Major League Baseball players on Opening Day rosters, not including the disabled list. Wait. Make that 725 and the Houston Astros.

And with that, with a shout-out as always to the SWAN, Zach Jones of Stats & Information, here are the ... [h=3]Players I love in 2013[/h]
Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies (going in the second, take in the first): You say he had a bad year last season, I say he's the only guy in Major League Baseball to go 20/20 each of the past three years. And while Troy Tulowitzki is a health risk, to be sure, I don't expect him to miss 115 games again. He had played at least 120 games for three straight years prior to last season. And check this out: Tulo played his last game of 2012 on May 30.
Carlos Gonzalez "Tulo" splits, 2012
Until May 30: .323 average, 1.020 OPS, HR every 14.3 AB
From June 1: .292 average, .803 OPS, HR every 37.0 AB
Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals (going in second/third, take in second): When I originally did my rankings, I had him in the second round and he was going in the third. His draft stock has risen recently and I'm glad to see everyone getting on board. Not that it's a big stretch to say he's a stud; obviously, he is. But some might think it's a risk to use this high a pick on a pitcher who was babied after a serious injury. Some are wrong. No innings limit this year plus a good team and a stud bullpen; he really only has to get through 6 innings before you get to Clippard/Storen/Soriano. And that's when he's not breezing into the eighth all by himself. He could easily be a 20-game winner and the best pitcher in baseball.
Since Strasburg arrived in 2010, he ranks first in strikeouts per nine (11.2) among pitchers with at least 40 starts. He's seventh in batting average allowed (.223) and 10th in ERA (2.94).
Adrian Beltre, 3B, Rangers (going 19th, I ranked him 14th): Money in the bank for .300/30/100. OK, technically, in 2011, he hit "only" .294, but he still had 32 homers and 105 RBIs despite missing 38 games, so we'll cut him some slack on the three hits he'd have needed to bat .300. He's an obvious name, of course; I'm putting him on this list because I have seen some rank David Wright ahead of him. Wright latest injury should have his supporters reconsidering that ranking, but still, I don't know that Beltre gets the respect he deserves. There are lot of question marks in the first two rounds; I like knowing exactly what I am getting.
David Price, SP, Rays (going in third, take in the second): All that said about Strasburg, Price's ERA over the past three years? It's 2.93, while pitching an average of 214 innings a year. I'm highlighting pitchers early because it goes back to what I was talking about in my Draft Day Pamphlet, you can no longer say "pitching is deep" and expect to compete unless you get really lucky. Given the question marks on offense at the top of the rankings, I'm comfortable taking a stud pitcher in this second, which is what I wanted to hammer home with the Strasburg and Price endorsements.
Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals (going in fourth, take in the late second to mid third): Believe the hype. Actually better as a 19-year-old than Mike Trout. At that age, Trout hit .220 for 40 games with a .281 OBP. Harper hit 22 homers and stole 18 bases with 98 runs in 139 games. Let's pretend he doesn't make the huge leap in his stats from age 19 to 20 the way Trout did. Let's just assume he plateaus, bump him up a little because he'll be there from Opening Day on and give him a 25/25 with 100 runs scored. Not crazy, right? Three more home runs and seven more steals? You know how many players went 25/25 last year? Three. Ryan Braun, Mike Trout, B.J. Upton. That's it. Now add 100 runs and at least a .270 average to that and kick B.J. Upton out of the group. Obviously, Trout and Braun have significantly more than 25 steals and homers respectively, but still. That's the neighborhood we're in, kids. And that's assumes he doesn't improve at all. Will he improve? Clown question, bro. Clown question.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Blue Jays (going in fourth, take in third): If you've read me for a long time, you know that the first baseman formerly known as E5 has been on the love list for many years now. Last year it finally all came together for him as he earned the most playing time of his career (644 plate appearances). He stayed healthy, changed approach a bit -- Jose Bautista isn't a bad cat to crib off of -- and I don't think this is a fluke.
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Dodgers (going in fourth/fifth, take in third/fourth): See if you're starting to sense a theme here. Widely considered a disappointment last year, because, well, he was, the truth is he still hit .299 and drove in 108. The power was missing, but his fly ball percentage 38.5 percent, right in line with the 39.4 percent it has been the past four years combined. The HR/FB rate is what betrayed him; last year it was 8.9 percent, it was between 15.8 percent and 18.8 percent the three seasons prior. That's a lot of outs that used to be home runs, and to wit, he batted .277 on fly balls last year after hitting .353 on them the previous three seasons. After being out of Boston and a year removed from sitting next to Stephania Bell in the Weasel Dome, Gonzo should have another triumphant year in the NL West.
Matt Holliday, OF, Cardinals (going in fifth, take in the fourth): Nothing sexy here, just a guy who has had at 500 plate appearances and a .295 average every single season since 2004. Only other guy who can say that? Miguel Cabrera. Hasn't hit fewer than 22 home runs since 2004, either.
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox (going in fifth, take in the fourth): Gut call he stays healthy this year.

Yu Darvish, SP, Rangers (Going in the late fifth/early sixth round, take in late third/early fourth): The strikeouts you know about, it's just about the control. Feeling he adjusts to the heat -- his worst two months last year were July and August -- and I'm buying the adjustment he made toward the end of last season. In his first 22 starts, he was 12-8 with a 4.54 ERA while walking batters 12.6 percent of the time. In his final seven starts, he was 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA and got the walk rate down to 5.3 percent.
Remember, it was a new set of umpires for him, and a new league. I'm expecting a nice leap in Year 2. After Darvish got a strike on a batter, only Matt Cain had a lower batting average against. And that also goes back to control. If he takes controls of his, er, control -- and I say he will -- top five, easy.
R.A. Dickey, SP, Blue Jays, Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals and Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants (all going in sixth; no issue taking them in fifth or even late in the fourth): Basically just wanted to say I believe in all these guys in a big way. That Dickey wasn't a fluke, that Wainwright -- two years removed from Tommy John surgery -- gets back into the top 10 and that I'm not worried about the end of Bumgarner's 2012. Like all three more than the pitchers going ahead of them, as you'll see when we get to "Hate."
Michael Bourn, OF, Indians (going in the sixth, take him in the fifth): There is so much uncertainty in fantasy, sometimes there's comfort in knowing exactly what you're going to get. Michael Bourn is 90 runs and 40 steals, in the bank. In the past four years, there have been only 12 seasons where a player has had at least 90 runs and 40 steals. Michael Bourn has three of them, Carl Crawford had two, nobody else has more than one. In general, I will go power over speed this early in draft, but Bourn is someone I make an exception for.
Allen Craig, 1B/OF, Cardinals (going in late sixth/early seventh, take in fifth): It's getting crowded on the Craig bandwagon and with good reason. Real simple; when he gets playing time, he produces. In his career, he's a .300 hitter who averages 25 HR and 64 extra-base hits per 162 games. You know who else had 64 extra-base hits last year? David Wright, Prince Fielder and Buster Posey. He won't play 162 games even if he stays healthy; the Cards are deep and can afford to rest him a little, which is why he's not going higher, but I'm all-in.
Aaron Hill, 2B, Diamondbacks (Going in the eighth, take him in the seventh): Power is scarce and so are good second basemen.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks (Going in the eighth, I'd pull the trigger in the fifth): I believe it all. The decreased strikeout rate, the increased contact rate, the improvement against lefties, the walk rate, the double-digit steals. I believe, during the offseason, he saved 40 children from a runaway school bus using only three toothpicks and fishing wire. I believe they found Osama bin Laden based on intel he provided. I believe his DNA will someday be used to cure cancer. I believe it all.
Kris Medlen, SP, Braves (ninth, seventh): As I mentioned in my 100 Facts article, in 30 career starts, Kris Medlen has averaged 8.0 K/9 IP and 1.8 BB/9 IP. And during Medlen's career, the only pitcher to make at least 20 starts with a K/9 rate of 8-plus and a BB/9 rate under 2 is … Cliff Lee.
Max Scherzer, SP, Tigers (ninth, seventh): See Samardzija, Jeff. He's coming up shortly.
Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros (10th, late eighth/early ninth): Just think he's the last decent second baseman I'd want as my starter in a 10-team mixed league. I'm OK with others as middle infield types and there are a few I could see putting it together to be top eight second basemen (Espinosa, Weeks, Kendrick), but for draft day, there's a real drop-off after Altuve, so I don't mind reaching a bit for him if I've been waiting on the position.
Ike Davis, 1B, Mets (11th, ninth): Tristan H. Cockcroft is all sorts of smart. Also totally agree with him on Austin Jackson and, as you're about to read, Brandon Morrow.
Brandon Morrow, SP, Blue Jays (11th, late ninth/early 10th): Improved his walk rate and his HR rate, I love the team and even with a decreased strikeout rate, he still has a K/9 of almost eight. Needs to stay healthy, but then again, don't we all? BABIP against keeps getting lower from 2010 and 2011 …
Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox (12th, ninth): Power and high average are increasingly hard to find these days. Konerko has both. The perfect guy for your corner spot, he has played at least 144 games for four straight seasons; he may be old and might not have had the year you expected last season, but he still had 26 home runs. Which is more than Adrian Gonzalez or Mark Teixeira hit.
Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs (12th, ninth): Apparently I like Chicago first basemen. The argument for waiting is that the position is deep. My take is that you want both your first baseman and your corner guy to be first basemen and that power is relatively scarce. So that's why I have a lot of first basemen on this list. And, oh yeah, Rizzo can crush.
Carlos Gomez, OF, Brewers (12th, ninth/10th): Power, speed and an average that (in this day and age) won't kill you. Did you know he had a higher HR/AB rate than Carlos Gonzalez, among others? That he led the majors in steals the second half? Plus, when you watch him, you can scream Go Gomez Go! Go Gomez Go! Which is fun. Go ahead, try it now, I'll wait. … Fun, right? Well, sure, if you're gonna do it from a bathroom stall at the office, that's just awkward.

Mike Napoli, C, Red Sox (15th, 13th): The fact Mike Napoli, a year removed from being our No. 1-ranked catcher, can be had in the 15th round should tell you all you need to about the depth of the catcher spot. The DH at-bats will help him stay fresh, Fenway helps with the average -- career .306 hitter in 62 at-bats there; small sample but still, better than .106, no? -- and he doesn't need help in the power department.
Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees (15th, 11th): Seems to be healthy, and if he's healthy, he's 90 runs and 40 steals with an average that won't kill you. If you go power early (and you should), this is a nice speed guy to get in the middle rounds.
C.J. Wilson, P, Angels (16th,14th): Guy was money for a long time, then got hurt, wasn't money. Now he's healthy again. His K/9 and BB/9 basically the same last year as in 2010, when he had better results, and in case you didn't notice, he's got a pretty good offense behind him.
Jeff Samardzija, SP, Cubs (16th, 13th): You don't have to spell it, you just have to assume he gets more run support this year, which he will. A 9.27 K/9 is what we in the fantasy analysis biz like to call "good." (By comparison, Justin Verlander's last year was 9.03). His BB/9 was 2.89. Here's a list of the pitchers with a K/9 better than 9 and a BB/9 less than 3 last season: Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer and … Samardzija. That's it. The whole list. He's going seven rounds later than the last guy on that list, Scherzer. So how do you spell Samardzija? Y-U-M-M-Y.
Chris Davis, 1B/OF, Orioles (17th, 12th/13th): Wow, another source of cheap power. At the corner spot. And I love him. The odds, I tell you, are unbelievable. After teasing us forever (He made fun of my hairline. What'd he do to you?), Davis finally learned to hit. Oh, there will be times when he's brutal for a week or two and I don't recommend watching him play unless you are very hot, in which case the breeze from his swing can provide a nice relief. But he's only 27 (seems as though he has been around forever), he learned (somewhat) to hit breaking stuff, his average won't hurt (it won't help, but given the state of hitting, it won't hurt) and at the end of the day, he's going to hit 30 home runs with multi-positional eligibility. And that has a lot of value. Especially in round 17.
Salvador Perez, C, Royals (18th, 15th): I'm stealing from myself again but I don't care. I love this stat from 100 Facts. Perez has 463 plate appearances in two seasons (his age-21 and age-22 seasons). Since 1961, the only catchers with a higher OPS than Perez (.810) and as many plate appearances by age 22 were Brian McCann (.898), Johnny Bench (.889) and Joe Mauer (.811). McCann's injured, Bench is retired and Mauer is going 11 rounds sooner.
[h=3]Others receiving votes[/h]The ESPN Live Drafts Results page goes through only 200 for "all" but here are some quick hits on other players I like for late-round fliers or deeper leagues. There's a lot of names here, this is merely me going through the depth charts of every team and seeing a name or two of guys I like this year and think are a bit underrated. In no particular order.
Alex Cobb, P, Rays: A 3.40 ERA post All-Star, 3.01 ERA in 11 August, September and October starts.
Billy Hamilton, SS/OF, Reds: Probably won't be up until the All-Star break. Will still finish top 10 in steals, and for this year you can take advantage of his shortstop eligibility, which he earned playing the position before switching to outfield. He won't qualify at short next season.
Brian Roberts, 2B, Orioles: Fantasy kryptonite for me. I always get sucked in. Argh. They say he's healthy. Super-deep AL-only play, but will earn a profit if he stays healthy.
Peter Bourjos, OF, Angels: Will stay in the lineup for defense, and I feel the power/speed combo he showed off in 2011 (12 HR/22 SB) will resurface with more regular playing time.
Andrelton Simmons, SS, Braves: If I'm being honest, I don't totally see it, but I have gotten more tweets and Facebook questions and statements on him being a sleeper than anyone else this spring. So just know if you like him, so do a lot of other folks.
Kyle Seager, 3B, Mariners: The quietest 20 home runs hit by a player last season, now in the middle of the lineup. I like him even though the fact they're moving in the left- and center-field fences at Safeco isn't going to help him much as a left-handed pull hitter.
Matt Adams, 1B, Cardinals: The question isn't talent, it's playing time. Between Allen Craig, Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday missed games, he'll get it.
Hisashi Iwakuma, SP, Mariners: Supporters say he got unlucky with HR/FB, critics point out he got lucky with strand rate. Truth is in the middle, but he has a 2.65 ERA in 16 starts with a 7.39 K/9 as a starter, with a 2.65 BB/9 and getting ground balls at a 50.9 percent clip. Only qualified starting pitchers with a ground ball rate better than 50 and a K/9 better than 7 and a BB/9 of less than 2.65? David Price, James Shields, Adam Wainwright. That's it. That's the whole list. I'm not saying he's in their league, but I am saying he's worth the extra buck in the end game.
Norichika Aoki, OF, Brewers: Also from 100 Facts, only three players hit 10 home runs, stole 30 bags and hit .288 or better in 2012: Ryan Braun, Mike Trout and Aoki. Trout and Braun hit a lot more than Aoki's 10 home runs, but they also cost a lot more, too.
Mitch Moreland, 1B, Rangers: As discussed on the podcast, finally has a full-time gig.
Andrew Cashner, SP, Padres: A K/9 better than 10 and he pitches in Petco. That'll overcome a lot of other flaws and help with the patience when he's hurt.
Lance Berkman, 1B, Rangers: Better chance to stay healthy as a DH, just a year removed from a 31-homer season, never a bad idea to take a late flier on a Texas hitter.
Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Yankees: He's not "Ichiro!" anymore, but he's being drafted like he's dead. He's not dead.
Brennan Boesch, OF, Yankees: Friend of the podcast! Injuries to his new teammates help keep him in the lineup, short porch helps his home run totals.
Chris Tillman, SP, Orioles: Believe the (renewed) hype.
Felix Doubront, SP, Red Sox: Second year as a full-time big league starter, I expect improvements in his control (not crazy amounts, but to a livable area), John Farrell can only help, he's a lefty with a K/9 better than 9 and he's one of the top two starting pitchers named Felix in baseball.
Emilio Bonifacio, OF, Blue Jays: Outfield only to begin with but will eventually qualify all over the field, and on that team, in that offense, I see a lot of opportunity for steals and runs scored.
Homer Bailey, SP, CIN: I've just always liked Homer Bailey.
Andy Dirks, OF, Tigers: Hit .322 with 8 homers in 314 at-bats last year. AL-only for now, mixed-league play if he can get full-time at-bats.
Phil Coke, RP, Tigers: They don't want Coke to be the closer. They may not have a choice.

Lorenzo Cain, OF, Royals: There's a post-hype sleeper double-digit steals and power guy in there, I just know it.
Erik Bedard, SP, Astros: See Roberts, Brian. Sigh.
Brandon Beachy, SP, Braves: Especially if your league allows you to stash an unlimited number of injured guys.
Dan Haren, SP, Nationals: Of all the "Big name guys who disappointed last year," he's my choice to bounce back. Him and Wilson.
Jean Segura, SS, Brewers: Former Angels. Noticing a trend? Sigh. Nice speed for your middle infield spot.
Matt Harvey. SP, Mets: Two first names. Always a crowd-pleaser. As is a K/9 of 10.62 in 10 starts last year. Legit.
Marco Estrada, SP, Brewers: Had 143 strikeouts and just 29 walks in 138 innings last year. That's a K/9 better than 9 and a BB/9 less than 2. Guys who threw at least 130 innings with a K/9 better than 9 and a BB/9 less than 2? Marco Estrada and … that's it. If we loosen the K/9 to "better than 8," Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia make the list.
Jedd Gyorko, 2B, Padres: He's a standout. And by standout, I mean he rakes, which on the Padres, stands out.
Cameron Maybin, OF, Padres: Thought he got unlucky last year. Still just 26, still fast, still on this list.
Any Oakland A's starting pitcher: Can't go wrong with the A's. The team ERA has been in the top 10 in the majors every year but two (11th, 13th) since 2001.
Josh Beckett, SP, Dodgers: Puts down the chicken and beer for Sushi and green tea. Could see him doing well just because it'll annoy the hell out of Red Sox fans.
Tyler Colvin, 1B/OF, Rockies: Now and forever.
Josh Rutledge, SS, Rockies: Nice pop with a little speed and will soon qualify at second base, assuming Tulowitzki can stay healthy for 20 games.
Shelby Miller, SP, Cardinals: Na-na-nasty.
And, of course …
Big Fat Bartolo Colon, SP, A's: I … can't … resist. Must be his gravitational pull.
[h=3]Players I hate in 2013[/h]There's nobody I hate in the first round; every player going in the top 10, I have inside my top 13, so can't really "hate" them for that. So I'll give you two guys in the second round, starting with …
Buster Posey, C/1B, Giants (second, take in the third): No shock here. If this is a market-value based column, and it is, someone who is going at a much higher cost than his value is going to make the list. He's terrific. Clearly the No. 1 catcher. A franchise player. But in an ESPN standard league, in which you start only one catcher, considering the depth of the position, a second-rounder is hard to justify. With only one catcher, his position doesn't actually help his value. In my mind, it just increases his chance for injury. Besides, we always say … never pay for a career year. Well, last year, Buster Posey had himself a career year, hitting .336 with a .957 OPS in 610 plate appearances. In his first three seasons combined (2009-2011), in 645 plate appearances, he hit .294 with an .815 OPS. Still solid, but if that's what you're going to get, is it worth that second-round pick, just because he qualifies at catcher?
Josh Hamilton, OF, Angels (second, third): I am an Angels fan. But the fact remains he is an injury risk, he is going to a much less favorable home park (career .260 hitter in 166 plate appearances there) and, as hot as he was at the start of last season, he was ice-cold the rest of the year; he hit .368 with 21 home runs in April and May, .245 with 22 home runs from June to October, losing 375 points on his OPS along the way. He was essentially cold for twice as many games as he was "Hot Josh." That said, all the numbers count, and it was still a really good season overall, which is why I'd still take him if he dropped to me late in the third, but Tristan Cockcroft and I have the same concern; injury prone and swings at everything (his K rate is up to 25.5 percent from 16.6 percent in 2010).
Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners (third, fifth): Obviously, I am not going to own Felix Hernandez this year if I'm not drafting him until the fifth. And if you want to be skeptical, that's very fair, I get it. I was down on him during the middle of last season, too, and obviously he crushed and I was dead wrong. But to me there's too many red flags. It starts with workload. He leads all active pitchers in innings pitched through their age-26 season, and it's not even close; 214 innings more than the second guy, CC Sabathia, having thrown at least 190 innings in each of the past seven seasons. In fact, over the past four seasons, no pitcher in baseball has pitched more regular-season innings than Felix, with 954.
Now, workload in and of itself isn't reason enough to panic. But it is when you combine that with the steady decrease in average velocity of his fastball over the past four seasons (94.0 in 2009, 93.9 in 2010, 93.2 in 2011, 92.1 last season), which also affects the changeup (the mph difference had dropped from 5.1 to 3.3 over that time frame).
We don't know how he'll react now that he's gotten the big payday, nor do we know how much the fences moving in will hurt pitching in Safeco. I'm sure he'll be terrific. He'll just be terrific for someone else, because there's too many red flags for me to make him the fourth pitcher off the board.

Jered Weaver, SP, Angels (fourth, fifth): I swear, I'm an Angels fan. The good news is that if I'm wrong, at least I'll be happy during baseball season. But my concern on Weaver is these numbers: 9.35, 7.56, 6.77. Those are Jered Weaver's K/9 rates the past three seasons. He had a 2.81 ERA last year but just a 4.18 xFIP. Angel Stadium and the Trout/Bourjos combo will definitely help, but I just sort of feel the big drop in strikeouts makes him a much better real-life pitcher than fantasy star, especially when you see some of the names going after him.
Chase Headley, 3B, Padres (fifth, 10th): I wrote this before his injury was reported, so now I have to re-write it and I'm all annoyed. Because he was a good "hate" name and now the injury just ruined all that. Did I just somehow make a professional athlete's injury and risk to his livelihood all about me and my column? Yes, yes I did. When it comes to my narcissism, I am operating at an elite level. Anyways, it's about the power. He had a HR/FB rate of more than 20 percent after a three-season average of just under 6 percent. Major league average last year was 11 percent. His draft position will drop because of the injury, but it should have been dropping because the power is unsustainable.
Yadier Molina, C, Cardinals, Matt Wieters, C, Orioles, Joe Mauer, C, Twins (sixth, eighth on average): See Posey, Buster. I want to be one of the last guys in a one-catcher league to fill the position this year.
Roy Halladay, SP, Phillies (seventh/10th): The decreased strikeout and ground ball rates, the increased walk and home run rates, the usage (only Sabathia has thrown more regular season innings the past seven years than Halladay), the struggles this spring; it all just gives me the heebie-jeebies. He has crazy upside, of course, but a lot of big-name pitchers off a bad year have that, as well, and I have a bad feeling about Roy, especially when you see the guys you're passing on to take him.
Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Phillies, and Jason Motte, RP, Cardinals (eighth/10th-11th): I don't really hate anyone in the eighth round, so I choose these two guys as the poster boys for "Never. Pay. For. Saves." Both guys are fine and I think they'll both have good years. But I'd much rather have Paul Goldschmidt or even Aaron Hill than either of these guys, and that's whom you're passing on.
James Shields, SP, Royals (ninth, 12th): Career ERA when pitching in a dome: 3.34. When pitching outdoors: 4.67.
Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies (10th/14th): Fine, let's forget last year and chalk it up to injury. Forget it. He's still a career .247 hitter whose slugging percentage has gone down in three straight seasons since 2009. But let's say that rebounds, too. Let's say he hits 30 home runs with a .250 average or so. He's Chris Davis, with a lesser average, more injury risk and he's going six rounds earlier. Paul Konerko is going in the 12th. Anthony Rizzo in the 12th. He's more of a risk and does not have more upside than many of the first basemen going later than him.
Josh Johnson, SP, Blue Jays (11th, 15th): The health risk, the new division, the fact his K rate was at a five-year low last season, his walk rate was at a five-year high … and he wasn't even that good last year. Seriously, how many reasons do we need here?
Hunter Pence, OF, Giants (12th, 14th): Worse park, lowest slugging and highest strikeout rate of his career, he doesn't run any more, I don't think the average will be as low as it was last year, but he's also not a lock for 20 home runs, either. Hit just .219 with seven home runs in 248 plate appearances after he was traded. Small sample size, sure, but it doesn't make you feel good. And a friend of mine dated him for a while and doesn't have nice things to say. Two sides to every story and, in fairness, most exes don't have nice things to say. But still. This is my list and I've got my friend's back. Hate Hunter Pence. Someone will pay for the name. Don't make it you.
Mark Teixeira, 1B, Yankees (13th, wouldn't draft him): Fans of the 06010 podcast will back me up here. I've "hated" Tex for a while now. Long before the injury. Long before the injury was worse. Long before it was cool. Been less than a fan for a few years now. I'm annoyed, again, because I would have had him low even if he was fully healthy. But the injury and its unknown severity, plus the traditional slow start combined with no spring training and the declining skills (as our player card notes, his OPS has dropped each season since 2007), means Nate Ravitz and I are in agreement on this one: Mark Teixeira is un-draftable in a 10-team standard mixed league.
Torii Hunter, OF, Tigers (13th, 14th-15th): No one I really "hate" in Round 14, so doubling up here. Hunter got pretty lucky last year, (.389 BABIP, .307 for career), his walk and strikeout rate both went in the wrong direction and he doesn't run anymore. And he's 37 years old. Just seven home runs and a .262 average in 337 career plate appearances at Comerica Park, as well, for what that's worth.
Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees (14th-15th, 18th): I know people are going to accuse me of being a Yankee hater, but I'm not. At least from a fantasy perspective. It's just that there's too many Yankee lovers out there ruining the ADP on these guys. Between the injury recovery and the age, how much speed does he have, really? How many ground balls is he gonna beat out? The runs might take a hit, too; that's not a good lineup hitting behind him to start the year. Had 15 home runs last year, yes, but had a total of 16 the two years prior. How much do you trust the power? I don't think he'll hurt you, but I also don't think he's winning you any leagues. He's "just a guy" in a 10-team mixed league at this point, and why go for "just a guy" here? The same numbers will be available later.
Jonathan Broxton, RP, Reds (17th, 20th): I think Aroldis Chapman gets the closer job back. At one point or another. That simple.
And with that, kids, Love/Hate is in the books. Hope you perceived it as worth your time …

HacheMan · Mar 20, 2013

Deeeeep sleepers: Carp, Teheran ...

[h=1]Deeeeep sleepers: Carp, Teheran ...[/h]<CITE class=source>By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Over the years, the definition of "sleeper" has substantially widened.

Fantasy owners -- even seasoned ones -- these days apply the label to any pick in the later rounds, or any player they think will be drafted later than he should -- including a third-round pick who lingers until, say, the fifth round.

But for the purpose of today's column, let's revert the term to its origins: A true "sleeper" is a player who, almost completely unnoticed at the time of your draft, suddenly becomes a valuable fantasy asset. The point is to identify completely unfamiliar players with the potential to quickly develop into lineup mainstays.

To use the 2012 season as an example, Kris Medlen (31st on the Player Rater), Norichika Aoki (76th), Tom Wilhelmsen (100th), Wade Miley (106th), Ryan Cook (120th) and Tyler Colvin (143rd) would've qualified as true sleepers. They'd have cost you no more than $5 in a singular (AL- or NL-only) league, yet turned in a profit at least as large as that, maybe even double or triple that.

I recognize that a sub-$5 player in an AL- or NL-only league probably won't register on the radar of even a 12-team mixed league. If you're in a shallower format, this list will serve as more of an in-season watch list; I recommend "Tristan's Twenty" as a source of draft-day value selections.

One other caveat: The above represents only six such examples that cracked the Player Rater 150 -- and there are only 250 players drafted in a typical ESPN 10-team standard mixed league -- so the prospects for success with this column's picks aren't great. This is hunting lottery tickets at its purest; the point is that this is supposed to be hard, because the potential payoff is massive. Before even listing a name, I'll guess that half of the picks below fail to turn in 2013 statistics worth at least twice what you paid for them. That's just how this goes.

That said, if even half of them do, their owners will probably win their respective leagues, so long as their "leading men" also perform adequately.

[h=3]Jake Arrieta, SP, Baltimore Orioles[/h]
I discussed Arrieta's skills in greater detail in my "Kings of Command" column, so let's use this space to update his quest for a rotation spot this spring: He tossed four shutout innings of two-hit, five-strikeout baseball without a walk on March 11, then another 4 2/3 scoreless frames March 16. The competition for the Orioles' fifth starter role seemingly has been narrowed down to him, Brian Matusz and Zach Britton. Arrieta's underlying numbers say he's well worth a $1 AL-only bid.

[h=3]Josh Donaldson, 3B, Oakland Athletics[/h]
Donaldson is struggling to get regular at-bats this spring and he no longer brings that attractive catcher eligibility in most fantasy leagues, but his bat possesses a bit more pop than most people realize. Following an August recall, he managed .290/.356/.489 triple-slash rates with a 40.7 percent fly ball rate and 13.8 home run/fly ball percentage in 47 games, eerily similar stats to his .285/.362/.490, 41.0 and 14.0 numbers in Triple-A in 2011 and 2012 combined. Donaldson can also steal a few bases -- he has averaged 12 swipes per 162 games as a pro -- meaning that if he emerges as even a part-timer at the hot corner, he could help AL-only squads.

[h=3]Jemile Weeks, 2B, Athletics[/h]
A bruised right shoulder has cost Weeks some critical spring action -- he hurt it March 1 and returned to game action March 14 -- but he continues to get chatter as a prominent member of the Athletics' second-base battle. A's manager Bob Melvin and hitting coach Chili Davis seem to have nothing but good things to say about the 26-year-old, and Weeks' speed and ability to draw walks makes him a handy AL-only plug-in at a precariously thin position. Even with 300 plate appearances, he could provide a sneaky 15 steals.

[h=3]Brennan Boesch, OF, New York Yankees[/h]
At $1.5 million, Boesch seems a tad pricey pickup for a player who had a .659 OPS last season. But that might convince the Yankees to be more patient with Boesch over the long haul -- remember that someone has to go once Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira heal -- and his swing is a good fit for Yankee Stadium besides. Of his 42 career homers, 24 were hit to right field and another 10 to right-center. It's not unthinkable that he could have a Raul Ibanez-2012-like season.

[h=3]Mike Carp, OF/1B, Boston Red Sox[/h]
It's well-known by now that I'm not the biggest believer in Mike Napoli, so it follows that I'd list Carp as an attractive, final-rounds-of-your-AL-only-draft pick. He has always had a bit of pop -- he had a .222 isolated power in 321 career games at the Triple-A level and a .190 mark during his best big league year of 2011 -- and he has balanced platoon splits and the ability to fill in at first base or either outfield corner. He should get at-bats.

[h=3]Eduardo Nunez, SS, Yankees[/h]
Considering the Yankees' many injury woes -- from Alex Rodriguez to Curtis Granderson to Mark Teixeira -- as well as their more frugal approach to roster construction (Kevin Youkilis was really their only big-ticket winter addition), Nunez might play a substantial role for the 2013 team, even if only as a super-utilityman. From a real-game perspective, the team might claim he has a shortstop's bat, which is why they haven't talked him up as a full-time fill-in at either third base or left field. Fantasy owners, however, know that Nunez contributes two useful things: speed, which is handy from a shortstop-eligible player, and the possibility of him picking up additional positions.

[h=3]Lucas Harrell, SP, Houston Astros[/h]
To be clear, he's not going to win many games as a member of the Astros, and his fantasy upside might be that of a matchups specialist, feasting upon the American League's bottom-half offenses. But Harrell has transformed himself into a viable big league starter, thanks to a 2.87 ERA and 7.42 strikeouts-per-nine innings ratio in 15 second-half starts last year, as well as a 56.9 percent ground ball rate in his big league career. Most Astros pitchers aren't worth your consideration; this is the rare one who is.

[h=3]Rick Porcello, SP, Detroit Tigers[/h]
This isn't a misprint: Porcello, who has a 4.59 career ERA, is still only 24 years old, and while he has never developed into the strikeout artist scouts believed he would be, he has nevertheless improved his K rate in each of the past two seasons. He also has improved his ground ball rate in similar fashion. Take note of that second point; it could be significant should he be traded to a team with a stronger infield defense. This is a "last pitcher you buy" pick for AL-only owners, but all the trade rumors make him worth the price.

[h=3]Evan Gattis, C/OF, Atlanta Braves[/h]
A dark horse candidate to make the Braves as a bench bat, Gattis has enjoyed such a productive spring that the team might want to consider him for a 50-50 split of the catching chores with Gerald Laird while Brian McCann recovers from shoulder surgery. A .308 career minor league hitter with .238 isolated power -- that's a .546 slugging percentage, to save you the math -- Gattis has batted .378 with five doubles and two homers in 37 spring at-bats. If he makes the team, this is the kind of low-cost, can't-hurt-you NL-only option I love to slot into my No. 2 catcher spot.

[h=3]Kyle Blanks, 1B/OF, San Diego Padres[/h]
He's my "fantasy kryptonite." I have been unable to resist Blanks' combination of power and walks this past half-decade. That said, if the player is bound to cost no more than $1 in an NL-only league, should one be ashamed to invest? Blanks' biggest problems have been a penchant for strikeouts and injuries; a foot issue mostly ruined his 2010 season and Tommy John surgery his 2011 season, and a shoulder issue entirely ruined his 2012. He has been raking this spring, however, and could make the team as a bench bat, where he might factor in left field long-term should Carlos Quentin get hurt.

[h=3]Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies[/h]
There was more hype surrounding Arenado a year ago, when chatter had him potentially breaking camp as the team's starter last season. After a so-so season in Double-A ball -- .285/.337/.428 rates, 12 home runs -- the buzz subsided, at least until a solid spring that has included a .793 slugging percentage. Arenado might yet be ticketed for Triple-A ball, but he'll probably see time in Colorado this summer, and there are worse places for a rookie to break in than Coors Field. He's a contact-hitting type whom NL-only owners should stash for a couple bucks.

[h=3]Jacob Turner, SP, Miami Marlins[/h]
He's having an awful spring, yes, but one thing Turner has going for him that comparably young arms struggling in March don't have is that he pitches for a team that can afford to be patient. Really, the problem is that his strikeout rate has dropped as he has climbed the competitive ladder; he averaged 7.13 K's per nine in Double-A in 2011 but has only a 5.85 rate thus far in the bigs. Command is the key, as he has a good combination of low-90s fastball, curve and slider, the latter two most likely to restore the strikeout potential he had in the lower levels, if they improve. But at least there's this: Turner's home ballpark is a pitching-friendly one, so if he's a $1 NL-only investment, he might at least warrant matchups consideration in those Marlins Park games.

[h=3]Julio Teheran, SP, Braves[/h]
The Braves' January trade of Randall Delgado practically assured Teheran the team's fifth-starter role, and Teheran's spring has done nothing but cement that status. He has made four starts, all of them superb, and has a 1.50 ERA and 18 strikeouts compared to four walks. Keith Law's No. 6 prospect overall as recently as 2011, Teheran had previously been unraveled by sketchy command and a penchant for home runs, but he's a potential high-strikeout, solid-ERA arm who merely needs to make the requisite adjustments to develop into the front-of-the-rotation arm scouts initially predicted. I'm not about to stray from my strong opinion about him just because he has been so-so in a minuscule sample of big league starts. For $3 to $4, he might be a $10-plus NL-only pitcher.

[h=3]Mark Melancon, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates[/h]
Let's not assume there are any guarantees with new closer Jason Grilli, who is 36 years old and has only five career saves. Grilli should succeed in his new role … but if he doesn't, Melancon is the most logical fallback. You might remember Melancon's miserable start to 2012 as the Red Sox's closer, but the more relevant sample to his 2013 cause was his 37-game, post-demotion stint to conclude the year: 1.05 WHIP, 4.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 63.9 left-on-base percentage that explains his bloated 4.19 ERA.
</CITE>

HacheMan · Mar 21, 2013

Sleeper Tour: Remember Lorenzo Cain?

Eric Karabell

SURPRISE, Ariz. -- Kansas City Royals right fielder Jeff Francoeur knows all about what his intriguing teammate Lorenzo Cain can do on the baseball field, and like many of us in the fantasy baseball world, he sees an exciting power-speed combination … if only health would cooperate.
"I can't wait to see it," Francoeur said of the potential the Royals' center fielder brings. "Lorenzo hasn't been able to stay healthy, but he has really worked on his legs and hammies this offseason. It's going to be fun to see what he can do."

On Wednesday afternoon, those in attendance for the Royals' 7-2 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers at Surprise Stadium saw what Cain can do, as he launched his first home run of spring training, doubled and made all the plays defensively. Cain, 27, brings exciting tools to the fantasy landscape, but doesn't seem to be anywhere near the radar screen; 69 other outfielders are being selected earlier in ESPN average live drafts. As we continue with sleeper week, Cain certainly fits the mold, just as he did a year ago, but -- and there usually is a "but" -- he has to stay on the field.

"It's been tough," Cain conceded. "With the year I had last year, I'm motivated more than ever. I feel great right now. I've done stuff all offseason to strengthen certain parts of my legs, I've done the stretching, I'm eating right. I have to be smart about how my body feels. My main focus is doing everything possible to stay healthy, see my name in the lineup every single day. It's my only goal."

Cain entered camp a year ago coming off an impressive 2011 season at Triple-A Omaha, where he hit .312 with 16 home runs and 16 steals, and Melky Cabrera was no longer blocking his path as starter. However, Cain suffered a groin injury the first week of April games, missed more time later in the season because of a hip injury and didn't start playing regularly until after the All-Star break. Cain started 50 games in the final three months, seeing time in the leadoff and No. 3 lineup spots, hitting seven home runs to go with 10 stolen bases, which is pretty impressive for barely 200 at-bats. Extrapolate those counting numbers to a full season and there wouldn't be anywhere close to 69 other outfielders ahead of Cain on the Player Rater. ESPN Fantasy projects only 11 home runs and 19 steals from Cain in 2013, but I'd say 16 home runs and 24 steals are more like it, making him perfect for the later rounds. Of course, I'm optimistic on his health, too.

While the line-drive home run Cain smacked Wednesday -- he hit an Aaron Harang curveball -- was impressive, I couldn't help but smile when Cain drew his fifth-inning walk. The guy is hitting .474 on the spring, but this was already his eighth walk, putting him among the spring leaders, and he has only two strikeouts. After drawing 15 walks versus 56 strikeouts last season, in line with his minor league trends, this could be a new and improved Cain. Spring training numbers rarely tell us much, but in this case, the plate discipline could certainly be a harbinger of good things to come. I asked Cain if this was a new approach.

"I wouldn't call it a new approach, I'm just laying off bad pitches," said Cain, one of the keys to the December 2010 Zack Greinke trade from the Milwaukee Brewers. "I have my days when I'm very aggressive. I have my days where I can lay off pitches, so it's kind of give and take. I think I can be consistent. My focus is to hit a line drive every time. If it goes out, I'll take it, good for me. I'll hit a few home runs now and then."

As for Francoeur, who has been really helpful (2011) and not-so-helpful (2012) to fantasy owners in recent years, his value is depressed after hitting .235 and being successful on a mere four of 11 steal attempts last year. An 18th-rounder in ESPN ADP last year, but sent to the waiver wire by most people by the All-Star break, perhaps we shouldn't be so quick to dismiss the veteran. He singled twice and stole a base Wednesday, reminding us of the surprising 22 bases he swiped in 2011. He's a proven player, so I asked Francoeur about his health and statistical goals.

"I'm going to run," a smiling Francoeur proudly announced. "I'm not going to drop a 50/50 season like [Matt] Kemp, but I should be able to use my feet. Last year, to be honest, and not so much with the running part, I was never in a good spot mechanically. I had a bad start and couldn't get out of it. I lost a step in the outfield. I look forward to the opportunity to change that this year."

I admit I hadn't thought of Francoeur as a potential fantasy sleeper, but hey, if he's telling us he's going to run, we shouldn't ignore that information. I went to the Royals' locker room to talk to (and about) Cain, but Francoeur did go 20/20 himself in 2011, while hitting .285. Many of us would be pleased if Cain does that. Perhaps this could be the first outfield, with Alex Gordon included, in which all three members go 20/20! Hey, it's not so crazy.

Game notes: Right-hander Wade Davis, included with James Shields in the Wil Myers trade, started for the Royals and finally allowed his first run of the spring. His command was spotty, as he walked four in four innings, but he surrendered only two hits. His catcher, Salvador Perez, yet another on a young team filled with sleepers, praised his pitcher for keeping the ball down. As for Perez himself, like everyone else he said he feels great, and said he'd like to hit .300 again. … The only Dodgers hits off Davis were by Cuban outfielder Yasiel Puig, a rocket triple and a hard-hit single to right field. Puig continues to impress, but there's no room in the L.A. outfield unless Carl Crawford starts April on the disabled list. I'd spend the speculative deep-league pick on Puig to find out if he's special. Entering Wednesday, he led the Cactus League in hits. If only he could play shortstop, now that Hanley Ramirez is out. … After Puig, the Dodgers' lineup was Kemp, Adrian Gonzalez and one utility guy after another. Shortstop Dee Gordon was not in attendance, but one must wonder if the Ramirez injury, whether it's two weeks or 10, affects him. Luis Cruz handled shortstop Wednesday, with Nick Punto at third base. Not very exciting. Gordon, who has seven steals this spring, is very exciting. Keep an eye on how the Dodgers handle this situation.

HacheMan · Mar 21, 2013

[h=1]ADP discrepancies[/h][h=3]Which players do fantasy owners like more or less than their ranking[/h]
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com

There's a philosophy that the collective opinion of a large group of people is more accurate than that of any one individual. This is commonly referred to as "the wisdom of the crowd."

You've probably seen an attempt at a practical application of this on the game show "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire." On that program, a contestant who doesn't know the answer to a multiple-choice question can poll the audience to see which answer they believe to be correct. It seems to makes sense that if you ask enough people, the majority of them will tend to agree on the correct response, but of course, there are no guarantees.

We here in the ESPN Fantasy department take it upon ourselves to debate the merits of players every spring and afterward, presenting to you our mini-version of the "wisdom of the crowd" in the form of our Top 300. Each one of us who takes part in the construction of this list might not agree with each and every player's relative ranking, but the hope is that collectively, we've come up with a solid pecking order.

Of course, when it comes time to draft, nobody expects fantasy baseball owners to blindly follow our list. It's a solid starting point, but your personal preferences are surely going to allow you to adjust our list to fit your player evaluations. Additionally, when your league's draft day arrives, one "unexpected" pick is likely to cause a chain reaction that ultimately causes our Top 300 to bear no resemblance whatsoever to the order in which players landed on your league's rosters.

However, if you take the results from enough leagues that have already drafted and put them all together, you can certainly use this information to help better inform your own draft strategy. The Average Draft Position (ADP) compiled from all ESPN live drafts, when used in conjunction with the Top 300, can be a crucial tool that lets you know which sleepers you can probably keep in your back pocket for a few extra rounds and which ones you need to act on quickly, lest you miss out.

Again, it's by no means perfect, and each individual draft ends up having its own quirks and idiosyncrasies. But knowing in advance what the "crowds" have tended to do might well be enough insight to allow you to always be acting one step ahead of the competition, instead of always getting scooped for the guy you really wanted to take.

Let's take a position by position look at where the ADPs diverge from the starting point we've provided for you to see what wisdom can be learned:

Catchers: Yadier Molina may well be the No. 2 catcher according to both the ESPN rankings, as well as his rank in terms of ADP (46, 55) but in a 10-team league, he's being selected almost a full round lower than our projections. Additionally, the gap between Matt Wieters (54, 59) and Joe Mauer (64, 60) is all but nonexistent in practice, creating a clear tier of three where we saw a much more delineated order.

Mike Napoli's (155, 136) multipositional eligibility has him going 19 picks earlier than expected, but he still rests in a tier of his own as the seventh catcher off the board in most drafts. Brian McCann (270, 213) and A.J. Pierzynski (249, 227) are familiar names who you're going to have to take a round or two early if your heart is set on having them on your roster. Odds are fans of Jonathan Lucroy (220, 244) can wait a bit longer to get their man.

First Basemen: We've got three first basemen in our top 10, and the general consensus seems to agree with us. However, Joey Votto (9,10) is getting a little less love than Prince Fielder (10,9) in most leagues, with the Detroit Tigers slugger winning more of the coin tosses at pick No. 9 thus far.

People are definitely more bullish on the likes of Ryan Howard (146, 99) and Paul Konerko (138, 114) than they are likely to pull the trigger on Ike Davis (94, 101) or Eric Hosmer (104, 113). And Mark Trumbo (109, 83), perhaps because of his positional flexibility, is getting snatched up a good two and a half rounds earlier than expected, so if you're undecided between the Angel and another player who might well last a bit, make your move now or be prepared to miss out.

One thing to keep in mind when you see an ADP that seems completely out of place is that recent injury news might be skewing the results. Case in point: Mark Teixeira (196, 130). His partially torn tendon sheath prompted our rating of the Yankees' first baseman to plummet instantly. It will take some time for the corresponding ADP drop to catch up because his ranking in completed drafts isn't going to change.

Second Basemen: It probably speaks to the overall weakness of the position that for the most part, the ADP at second base sticks fairly close to the Top 300. It's chalk at the top and all the way through the top dozen names. When it comes to filling out that MI position in the fantasy lineup, most owners are perfectly fine waiting a bit to do so. Perhaps because he's playing for the league-swapping Houston Astros, Jose Altuve (84, 97) is going over a full round later than expected or it just might be a function of overall disillusionment after the top seven names go off the board.

Chase Utley (157, 131) in a contract year, is gaining some traction as a sleeper pick, having clearly passed Danny Espinosa (135, 140) and Rickie Weeks (149, 156) in the pecking order. Another player with a surge in popularity is Jedd Gyorko (262, 247), who has hit three home runs this spring. It just goes to show that if a player who you are targeting starts to consistently make the highlight reel just before you draft, you probably need to reach for him around earlier than if he hadn't been featured on "SportsCenter."

Shortstops: Overall, people are still waiting a bit on Hanley Ramirez (21, 25) but are still selecting him a bit more often than his former teammate, Jose Reyes (29, 26). However, the thumb injury Ramirez suffered in the World Baseball Classic might end up making the decision at No. 2 a lot clearer going forward. If Ramirez does have to miss some time, expect Starlin Castro (35, 40) to start to climb a lot higher, perhaps even all the way into the tail end of Round 3.
Once the top six shortstops are off the board, it's clear that owners are waiting a bit longer to fill that spot in the lineup. Players like Erick Aybar (121, 135) and Alcides Escobar (141, 160) are part of the group of names in consideration for the last few starting spots in standard leagues who are seemingly being selected because owners need a warm body, rather than being actively pursued.

The name value of Derek Jeter (185, 153) continues to keep the New York Yankees' captain in the conversation despite his advanced age. Owners apparently would rather latch on to his expected 10 home runs and those "intangibles" than to take a chance that Everth Cabrera (230, 261) manages to boost his batting average above the league norm while racking up over 40 steals.

Third Basemen: This is a very strong position, with 10 guys with an ADP in the top 100 (11, if you include Martin Prado). Miguel Cabrera (3,1) is the crowd's consensus No. 1 overall pick, but after he goes off the board, it looks like owners in the middle of the snake are content to play a game of chicken between Adrian Beltre (18, 19), David Wright (17, 22) and Evan Longoria (21,23), hoping that at least one of this trio lasts into Round 3. It's a dangerous game.

There's another clear shopping spree at third base in Round 7, with Brett Lawrie (55,66), Aramis Ramirez (69,69) and Pablo Sandoval (78,70) all getting lumped together in the same tier, along with the injured Chase Headley, whose ADP has yet to re-establish itself, but will likely settle around this point of the draft.

After that last feeding frenzy abates, the bottom drops out of the third base ADP. Generally speaking, once David Freese (125, 120) goes off the board, you can expect to wait another 3-4 rounds before any more names gets snagged off the remainder pile. The relative value of players like Todd Frazier (172, 186), Kyle Seager (164, 188) and Manny Machado (177, 189) simply does not require you to reach if you're eyeballing these players.

Outfielders: Apparently Carlos Gonzalez (8,11) is not a first-rounder in ESPN standard leagues after all. At least that's what ADP is telling us. I don't think that's really a comment on CarGo himself, but rather the perception that you either need to strike quickly at the corners or grab Robinson Cano before focusing on a loaded outfield position, at least at the very elite level.

As expected, drafters have a slightly higher opinion on the chances of Bryce Harper (37, 31) having a stellar sophomore season than we rankers did. If you want him, you're probably going to have to take him before you see Jay Bruce (36, 38) and Adam Jones (34, 37). Certainly, by the time you see Matt Holliday (44, 43) go off the board, you're going to be way too late.

The crowds don't have as much faith when it comes to Shin-Soo Choo (76, 88), Alex Gordon (81, 91) or Carlos Gomez (101, 116), all of whom take at least a one-round hit in the ADP assessment. But clearly, the big losers this season are the speed demons. Apparently the days when owners would reach for a Dexter Fowler ( 176, 190) or a Coco Crisp (179, 194) or a Lorenzo Cain (250, 289) in order to beat the league to some cheap steals have long since passed us by. Even Michael Bourn (56, 64) is lasting until Round 7.

Designated Hitters: There's only one DH of note in fantasy for 2013, and that's David Ortiz (132, 122). In certain formats, like points leagues, his expected statistical output might warrant top-50 consideration. However, the fact he can only fill that utility spot is what depresses his value, assuming a return to full health, to well outside the top 100 in ESPN Standard leagues.

Starting Pitchers: We don't have any pitchers in our first round, but that hasn't deterred many leagues from seeing an owner grab Justin Verlander (13, 8) as their No. 1 pick. Clayton Kershaw (14, 13) is the likely next name off the board, though it's clear that the "sexy" pick is Stephen Strasburg (24, 18), and it wouldn't be at all surprising to see owners grab him early in Round 2.

I like to use the "every 3-4 rounds" benchmark to see what an average staff might look like if you were to simply try to keep pace with the rest of your league when drafting pitchers in order to see what the viability of such a strategy might be. This season, that would result in a starting staff which kicks off with Gio Gonzalez (47, 42), Jordan Zimmermann (70, 73) and Dan Haren (106, 115). If it's good enough for the Washington Nationals, it should be good enough for you.

For the most part, starting pitching is sticking close to the ESPN rankings. There does seem to be an anti-Detroit Tigers bias surfacing late, with Doug Fister (98, 108) and Anibal Sanchez (119, 133) both going lower than expected. The lack of warm fuzzies seems to also be attached to Arizona and Ian Kennedy (102, 109), Wade Miley (148, 164) and Trevor Cahill (204, 216).

Roy Halladay (127, 68) is the biggest question mark. Because of his age, a poor spring performance (6.75 ERA) has caused some rethinking of his 2013 projections and the ADP has not quite caught up to his lackluster camp as of yet. But then again, the Phillies are saying that a stomach virus is to blame and that he is otherwise healthy and ready to go. We shall see.

Relief Pitchers: Don't pay for saves! You all know the ESPN Fantasy mantra by now. However, with Craig Kimbrel (42, 41), you're paying for both saves and a ton of strikeouts. That makes him all the more alluring to fantasy owners, and they're grabbing him earlier and earlier with each passing season.

Other than Kimbrel, the trend seems to be to "break the seal" on closers in Round 8, and at that point, it's a matter of personal preference with Jonathan Papelbon (77, 74), Jason Motte (80, 77) and Aroldis Chapman (79, 72) -- whom everybody seems to believe will be closing games in Cincinnati at some point this season -- all going in this neighborhood.

Because predicting saves can be such a roll of the dice, much of the ADP list seems to trust the general order our Top 300 has spelled out. However, if there are any "sleepers" in the midst, it does appear that Baltimore's Jim Johnson (129, 112) and Seattle's Tom Wilhelmsen (221, 203) are getting the largest amount of increased interest. On the flip side, Ryan Madson (168, 182) and Alexi Ogando (193, 205) are the two relievers with the most glaring lack of trust.

Remember that whether or not the "wisdom of the crowd" proves to be more accurate in evaluating talent is irrelevant on draft day. We won't know that one way or the other until the season is over. But what you can be fairly certain of is that once that player you want is off the board, you'll have to do without.

So while the "wisdom" itself may end up being wrong, what it is saying in terms of when to pull the trigger should be ignored at your own risk.

HacheMan · Mar 21, 2013

Who I Like ... and Don't Like

By Todd Zola | Mastersball.com

"Nothing you could say can tear me away from my guy …
Nothing you could do, 'cause I'm stuck like glue to my guy …
I'm stickin' to my guy, like a stamp to a letter.
Like the birds of a feather, we stick together.
I'm tellin' you from the start, I can't be torn apart from my guy."

I'm pretty sure that when Mary Wells graced Motown with that melodic declaration, she wasn't singing about Allen Craig, Josh Rutledge and Alex Cobb. But when I sit down at the draft table and start humming that catchy tune, those are a few of the guys you can't tear away from me.

Let's be honest. We all have players we like more than everyone else. I know I do. It's only human. I'd like to think there's justification for sticking to my guy like glue. More often than not, I see a potential for upside not apparent or even believed by my opponents.

On the other hand, there are also players we all avoid. None of us want to admit it, but there's often an unfair bias in this decision. Perhaps we acquired the player in a trade right before he went into a tailspin, or maybe he plays for our hometown team's rival. Regardless, there are always a few players will leave on the draft board even if they are on top of our cheat sheet when we're on the clock.

Today I'm going to put away the spreadsheets and open up a little. I'll review several players who are populating more than one of my teams, as well as justifying a few of my more controversial "bust" selections in our staff 2013 Sleepers and Busts package. I'll wrap up our preseason discussion by "goin' fishin'" for "trout."

[h=3]My Guys[/h]
I am, by nature, a conservative drafter. I play the percentages and hope I'm wrong more than I'm right. I've coined a phrase that best describes this philosophy: "I'd rather be wrong for the right reason than right for the wrong reason." However, in today's landscape, that's no longer a guarantee of success. When everyone is playing the percentages, no one has an edge, so sometimes you need to create your own, even if it means you may be wrong. Here are some players I hope I am right about, even if for the wrong reason.

Jose Reyes, SS, Toronto Blue Jays: Conventional wisdom suggests we should be concerned about Reyes playing half his games on the artificial surface at Rogers Centre. And with his history of hamstring injuries, that does make sense. Most of his issues have been tears or residual problems such as irritated scar tissue from the tears. But when I think of turf, I think about the pounding a knee or back takes, not the increased possibility of a muscle tear. As such, I'm not any more concerned about Reyes playing on turf as I would be with him playing on natural grass.

Instead, I'm drooling at the prospect of him hitting atop a potent lineup in a hitters park. His triples likely will fall, but all of my leagues count homers, and those should go up a bit. Reyes won't run wild, but considering how well Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion handle fastballs, I have to believe Reyes will be in motion frequently if only to force the opposing pitcher to throw the heater. If he stays healthy, Reyes could best Mike Trout in average, runs and steals and not lag too far behind him in homers. Oh yes, I just said that!

Allen Craig, 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals: Like Reyes, the knock on Craig is his injury risk. He had knee surgery in November 2011, delaying his 2012 debut until May 1. He played nearly every day for two weeks before hurting his hamstring. After returning from the hamstring on June 1, Craig missed only four more games the remainder of the season. The first was on June 2, the day after returning from the DL, and the last was on the final day of the season, when the Cardinals rested their regulars for the playoffs. In essence, including the playoffs, Craig missed two games the last four month of the 2012 campaign. I know, it's still a small sample size, but do you know who has led the majors in total plate appearances over the past two seasons? The answer is none other than the formerly "injury-riddled" Ian Kinsler. At the dish, Craig is a line-drive machine, which supports his .329 BABIP, a mark that is well above league average. Craig's power is tempered a bit by him hitting fewer fly balls than other power hitters, but Craig's lofty 17 percent HR/FB rate will push his homer total into the 20s. The edge I get with Craig is I feel he'll play 155 games and won't see as much regression as others believe.

Alex Rios, OF, Chicago White Sox: There's a term we use in the industry. It's called "saberhagenmetrics." This is used to describe players who have oscillating good and bad years. I wish I knew who originated it so I could give proper credit. Anyway, the current poster child is Rios, meaning he's due for a down year (considering his 2012 was so good).

The cleverness of the term aside, "saberhagenmetrics" does not exist; it is happenstance. But more importantly, Rios has displayed relatively consistent skills; he has just hit into some bad luck in those down years. While I admit a repeat of last season's stellar effort is optimistic, put me down for him posting numbers a lot closer to 2012 than 2011, where he was snake-bitten with a .237 BABIP, which in turn wasted a career-best contact rate.

Josh Rutledge, IF, Colorado Rockies: The concern with Rutledge is he rarely takes a walk, which can lead to slumps when his swing isn't right. Plus, Rutledge's defense is not strong enough to keep him in the lineup, as the Rockies do have some viable alternatives. My counter to this is Rutledge has shown a better walk rate in the minors, and while his contact rate is not exceptional, it is above average and sufficient enough to fend off a slump, especially during homestands. That's the risk. The reward is potentially 20 homers and 20 steals if he can play 150 games hitting near the top of the Rockies' lineup.

Carlos Gomez, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: No way he hits 19 homers again, right? I wouldn't bet against him. First off, there's the case of his playing time, the same case many use with Mike Trout playing an extra month. Nyjer Morgan is no longer in the picture, and there is nobody in his stead, so Gomez will pick up a good number of plate appearances as compared to last season. It helps that he has no appreciable lefty-righty splits difference, so his rate of production likely won't suffer. While Gomez's 2012 strikeout rate was still high, it was his best mark since 2009. Most importantly, his HR/FB rate and fly ball percentage are both trending up, and as suggested, it is not in lieu of contact.

The safe bet is always to expect regression, so I may take the under on 19, especially if his playing time doesn't increase as much as I expected. That said, I am pretty sure I expect less regression than most. And oh yeah, Gomez managed to swipe 37 bases in between home run trots in 2012.

Kyle Seager, 3B, Seattle Mariners: As my colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft discussed, the new Safeco Park dimensions are surprisingly similar to U.S. Cellular Field and the Great American Ballpark. As Cockcroft also explained, this is no guarantee that Safeco Park will flip to being a hitter's paradise. On the other hand, it certainly won't hurt, and Seager, along with Jesus Montero and Michael Saunders, could be the primary beneficiaries.

But this is not the reason Seager is one of "my guys." Others see consecutive years of a .258 and .259 average and shy away from him, whereas I see some serious batting average upside. In 2011, Seager's power was down, and remember, home runs are hits, too. Last season, Seager hit into some misfortune, as his 22 percent live-drive rate should have yielded a better BABIP than .286. With some better luck, Seager can challenge the .300-average plateau.

Justin Maxwell, Houston Astros: "Play it safe and take chances late." That's the mantra of many a fantasy drafter. Maxwell is the ideal chance to take during the fungible portion of your draft or as an endgame play in an auction. His crutch has always been a high whiff rate. But when he makes contact, good things happen. Given 600 plate appearances, Maxwell has 25-homer/20-steal potential. Since I like some analytical basis to my speculative plays, I'll note that Maxwell's minor league history also suggests he can display more patience at the dish. Not only does this portend more walks, it also can be a harbinger of better contact. I'll take that chance.

And a few others …
Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals: Nothing fancy here other than to say it was not long ago that Wainwright was ranked as the top pitcher just below the elite tier. He sure looks to me like he's back at that level again, yet he's being drafted a little later. I'm more than happy to anchor my fantasy staff with a guy who could easily finish in the top five with the 10th (or so) pitcher off the board.

Doug Fister, SP, Detroit Tigers: In a nutshell, it boils down to this. What's the next number in this sequence: 5, 6, 7 …? Now, the projection theory says to take a weighted average. But what if this is a trend? While it's not exact, those numbers approximate Fister's increasing K/9 rate the past three seasons. Simply put, I see him closer to 8 (the progression) than 6 (the average), which, combined with his excellent ground ball rate, renders Fister as an No. 3 mixed-league starting pitcher available for the cost of an SP4 or even SP5.

Homer Bailey, SP, Cincinnati Reds: I find it funny when the same fantasy owner who chides a player for failing to reach his potential then casts doubt that player can maintain it when he finally does reach his potential. Bailey has finally showed us what the hype was all about, and I think he can do it again, despite working in an unforgiving bandbox. Home runs are going to be an issue, but I think Bailey has another skills increase in him, edging up his strikeouts while shaving a bit off the free passes. It wouldn't surprise me if his groundball rate improved as well. The message here is to trust the peripherals and don't be scared by the park.

Dillon Gee, SP, New York Mets: Gee is another example, like Fister, in which you must decide whether a three-year trend will continue or level off. Prior to having his 2012 campaign cut short with circulation issues, Gee was enjoying a career season, featuring career-best strikeout and walk rates. A high HR/FB rate bloated his ERA. Even if Gee gives back some of his strikeout and walk gains, he should be able to bring his ERA down into the mid-3s. If all you focus on is his 4.10 ERA from 2012, you won't noticed the actual skill level increase that Gee exhibited last season.

Alex Cobb, SP, Tampa Bay Rays: I'm not alone on calling this guy a sleeper, so I'll keep it brief. Cobb pounds the strike zone, and his minor league pedigree suggests more punchouts are coming. The Rays have a knack for developing pitchers and putting them in the best situation to succeed. The problem is, Cobb is approaching the "so-underrated-he's-overrated" status.

[h=3]Not My Guys[/h]
Everyone has their own definition of a bust. For the purpose of this discussion, I'm not saying these players will fit everyone's definition of a bust. What I'm saying is that I'm knocking them down a few pegs on my draft board for various reasons. Something to keep in mind: Dropping someone a round or so at the top of the draft is akin to dropping him several rounds in the middle and end. The expectation of a draft pick does not follow a linear path from the first pick through Mr. Irrelevant.

Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees: I'm not a believer in position scarcity, so Cano gets no extra points from me in that regard. It isn't that I feel Cano won't hit as well as he did last season, or that he will be pressing under the burden of having to carry the Yankees' offense in a contract year. It's simply that even if Cano hits .300 with around 30 homers, he'll fall well short of his previous seasons' RBI and runs totals. He still scores points for consistency … but so does Prince Fielder. Fielder's baseline is also .300-30, but he should surpass Cano in runs and RBI. Sure, Cano will swipe a handful of bags, but not enough to make a difference. In short, I prefer Fielder to Cano.

Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates: Despite hitting an impressive .327 last season, McCutchen fanned more and walked less than he did in 2011. He was buoyed by a .375 BABIP that is likely to regress much closer to McCutchen's career mark of .326. Unless he improves his contact, McCutchen could very well see his average fall below .300. His HR/FB rate also spiked in 2012, and there is likely to be some giveback there as well. Perhaps most disconcerting is McCutchen's poor stolen base success rate in 2012. After swiping successfully 81 percent of the time in his rookie season, he has been thrown out in 30 percent of his chances over the past three seasons. With Starling Marte setting the table at the top of the Pirates' lineup, it would not be surprising if McCutchen's running was curtailed unless/until he improves his success rate.

Joey Votto, 1B, Reds: June 24, 2012. That's the date Votto last hit a homer in a game that counted. Granted, he missed a large chunk of that time with knee problems, but do you feel warm and fuzzy spending a top-12 pick on a guy that failed to hit a home run in his final 167 plate appearances, regardless of the circumstances? Votto's power has always been a result of a high HR/FB rate, as his fly ball rate is extremely low at 34 percent. Of course the remaining line drives and ground balls lead to a high batting average, but we expect more than just a high batting average from a top-12 pick. Also consider that one of the latent reasons Votto was so useful was the quiet steals from a first baseman. After last season, it would be surprising if Votto swiped more than just a handful of them now. So let's say he hits 25 bombs with a .315 average or so. How much better is that (if any) than Adrian Gonzalez or Billy Butler? I don't see either of them being taken anywhere near the first round.

[h=3]Go Fish![/h]
Yup, you guessed it, what's an ESPN piece without a discussion on Mike Trout? I have a slightly different take that I'd like to share since this is the last time we'll get together before the season starts.

Here's the deal. On every other player, we all decide how we feel that player will perform. With Trout, it has morphed into a game of chicken, with both sides allowing more and more subjectivity to cloud their objective evaluation. I admit it: In the back of my mind, I want Trout to struggle. It justifies my philosophy and validates my methods. Now here's where you admit that you want me to be wrong. Truth be told, the baseball fan in me wants me to be wrong, too. But at the keyboard, I'm not a fan; I'm an analyst. And the analyst in me contends that Trout will not repeat his historic rookie season.

While I have not altered my original projection for Trout, multiple members of my industry brethren are predicting doom and gloom for last season's AL MVP runner-up. Some may feel my take looks like I'm sitting on the fence, but I prefer to consider it the most objective analysis I can offer.

The problem here is we have no baseline from which to work from. Even the most ardent Trout supporter doesn't argue that there will be no regression. If you know anything about player evaluation, you understand a .383 BABIP and 22 percent HR/FB rate are going to come down. But without a baseline, we don't know how far. Of course, as alluded to earlier, Trout will add April to his resume and tack on another 120 plate appearances to hit homers and steal bases, so many are contending the regression will be washed out by more games.

The objective is to strip out the luck, leaving the rest as his baseline. Yes, my friends, Trout was lucky as well as very good last season. No one complained when we advised to trade Bryan LaHair after his luck-driven, white-hot start. The difference is whatever Trout's baseline is, it blows away LaHair's. As smart as it was to acknowledge LaHair was in for a fall, it's just as smart -- and necessary -- to do the same for Trout.

To be honest, I feel as though I have a better handle on Trout's BABIP than power. By looking at his hit distribution, it can be estimated that his BABIP should have been in the .340 range. Understand this is still exceptional, just not otherworldly. However, unless he drastically improves his contact rate, Trout figures to strikes out once every 4-5 trips to the plate. Even with a .340 BABIP, this drops his batting average below .300. Fewer hits also mean fewer runs, RBI and steals. For what it's worth, I routinely use an expected BABIP for all my projections.

It's the power that has me befuddled. There is no expected HR/FB rate for him. He can hit 15 homers as easily as 30. I elected not to take a stand here. I'm taking the under on my own projection of 25 homers, but that's what the engine says, so that's my projection.

For the record, I have Trout at .286 with 25 homers, 72 RBIs, 120 runs and 45 steals. This puts him top-5 on my board, but I'm not comfortable pulling the trigger. A projection is just a static weighted average of a series of possible outcomes. It must be considered in context, and I feel there is more downside risk than upside reward. The analyst in me wants me to be right. The fan in me hopes I'm wrong.

HacheMan · Mar 24, 2013

Deciding on divisive fantasy players

Keith Law

Editor's note: Our fantasy staff has identified a dozen key questions that are on the minds of fantasy owners and asked Keith Law to provide his thoughts. The questions are in bold, and Law's answers follow.

Ryan Howard: Do we throw out 2012? Does he have anything left?

I understand that Howard has had a good spring, but he's kind of had a bad few years before that, mostly against left-handed pitchers, to the point where the Phillies might be better off platooning him with Darin Ruf at first.
<OFFER>But two years ago, before the foot injury, he hit .266/.370/.550 (AVG/OBP/SLG) against right-handers with 30 homers. I think he can come close to that against righties again this year, maybe more in the 25-homer range. I'd be most concerned about his batting average if I owned him in fantasy.

Elvis Andrus: His drop in steals bothers many; others say he's just 24 and still improving. Your thoughts?

I understand seeing the age and assuming future improvement, but part of scouting is identifying specific areas for improvement -- like how a player will come into more power. I'm not sure where Andrus would be expected to improve; he's already a great defender, he's not going to start hitting 15 homers a year, and players don't get faster as they get older (even in their 20s).
You might argue he'll boost his batting average, but that would mean striking out less -- he doesn't strike out much as it is -- or, more likely, raising his batting average on balls in play, which reached a career high of .332 last year. Maybe he ends up a .350 BABIP guy and hits .300 for several years with 20 to 25 steals, trending down into the teens as he reaches his late 30s. But that, to me, is the only way he elevates his game substantially going forward.

Tim Lincecum: What can we expect?

I saw him last week, and the issues that plagued him last year are still present -- he's pitching with an average fastball that has no movement, and he doesn't have the kind of command to get away with throwing it in the upper half of the zone. Either he relies more heavily than ever on the slider, a pitch he has commented in the past bothers his elbow, or he needs a change in role.
I do think he could help this club in a high-usage relief role, kind of the way he was deployed in October, but it has been ages since any MLB team used a reliever in that fashion.

Kris Medlen: Is he the real deal?

I like Medlen a lot, more than I did before his elbow surgery, but a little cold water is merited here -- he had a .249 BABIP as a starter last year, and even with a very good defense behind him in 2013, that's not at all likely to happen again.
That aside, he has the repertoire, especially the out-pitch changeup, to be a front-line starter, a 180-200 inning guy with an ERA in the high 2s or low 3s. And that defense behind him this year, including a full year of Andrelton Simmons at short and three great gloves in the outfield, will help too.

John Axford: Can he find his control and be solid again?
I think when Axford's career is over, we will look back at 2011 as the outlier, not 2012.

Paul Goldschmidt: Can he hit breaking stuff from righties?
I think this is what he is -- a platoon guy who destroys left-handed pitching (and Tim Lincecum) while playing above-average defense at first. It probably helps his cause that Diamondbacks manager Kirk Gibson and GM Kevin Towers really seem to like his makeup, which counts for everything in Arizona these days.

Paul Konerko: Has the decline begun?

I'm surprised it took this long to start. He's 36, and his rate stats have dropped two years running. I also don't like the way he's expanding the zone more easily, especially as pitchers work him with more off-speed stuff that he can't quite adjust to as quickly as he once did.
I won't predict the cliff because I don't think we can ever reliably foresee when an aging player is about to go from "solid if overpaid" to "please make it stop," but I don't think Konerko has more than a year or two left as an everyday guy.

Bryce Harper: What can we expect from him this season?

I think he becomes a top-10 player in the NL -- 30 homers, 70-plus walks, 20-plus steals, probably with a batting average in the same range as 2012 but higher OBP and slugging figures.
The history of 19-year-olds who do what Harper did doesn't actually exist, because he just had the best season by a teenage hitter in MLB history. And guys who do exceptional things at extremely young ages very often go on to Hall of Fame-caliber careers.

Manny Machado: Same question.
Also a big fan, but I wouldn't be shocked if he was a year away from the huge breakout. I could see 20 bombs this year, but the average and OBP might be disappointing. I've said this in many forums, but I do think he and the Orioles would both be better served if he played shortstop full-time this year.

Chris Sale: Seems to be drafted highly, but we have our doubts. You?
My doubts on Sale's durability remain. I don't see him holding up for a full, 34-start, 200-inning season. Even in 2012, the White Sox had to manage him more carefully than their other starters -- something they did very well -- but I think that arm action and body are a time bomb.

Josh Beckett: Still have something?
No. He has to completely remake himself as a command/control guy. I don't see that happening, at least not overnight, but probably not ever.

Jim Johnson: Can he be as successful without the K's?

He has outperformed his peripherals, primarily the strikeout rate, two years running. I would imagine that gives everyone from the Orioles to Johnson's fantasy owners a slightly false sense of security about his performance going forward.
Either he strikes more guys out -- I don't know how, although I suppose it's within the realm of possibility -- or eventually he regresses to low-3s ERAs.

HacheMan · Mar 24, 2013

[h=1]Position battle updates[/h][h=3]Many rotation spots up for grabs; potential platoon situations may be emerging[/h]
By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Things change quickly in this game.

The past week proves that: If you drafted Chase Headley or Hanley Ramirez last Saturday, you're not very happy today. Both will miss multiple weeks of the regular season, and Ramirez more than a month.

But injuries aren't the only things that skew values in March. Spring training is a time of battles for jobs, and we're entering the final stages in which such decisions must be made made. Today, let's recap where the most compelling -- from a fantasy angle -- battles stand.

Cincinnati Reds fifth starter/closer: This should be called more "decision" than "battle," as this has always been Aroldis Chapman's eventual role. Thursday represented another mind-bending day in the Chapman conundrum -- starter or closer, closer or starter -- as the Cincinnati Enquirer's Paul Daugherty reported that the Reds were to announce that Chapman would close, only to have Reds general manager Walt Jocketty subsequently tell Reds reporter Mark Sheldon that no decision had been made nor would there be any announcement. This comes on the heels of Chapman's admission that he'd prefer to close, as well as Reds manager Dusty Baker's same stated preference, so the smart money is on Chapman occupying the ninth inning, the role in which he earned a No. 3 ranking among relief pitchers on our 2012 Player Rater. As it pertains to his fantasy value, it's a matter of shuffling categorical resources; we'd rank him only one round sooner as a closer, but he'd be a projected 37-save closer with more than a half-run lower ERA.

It's the alternatives at either spot whose values are in flux; Mike Leake is the fallback fifth starter, Jonathan Broxton the reliever signed to a three-year, $21-million contract this winter presumably to close. Broxton's value, outside of what might be 20-hold potential in leagues that reward those, would plummet in an eighth-inning role, much the way his strikeout rate has in recent years (13.50 K's per nine in 2009, 6.98 last year). Leake, meanwhile, would be back on the NL-only map, a potential $1-$3, late-round buy if Chapman closes. Trending toward: Chapman closing; prepare accordingly.

Detroit Tigers closer: Tabbed the team's closer during the winter, Bruce Rondon got off to a rocky start in spring training, allowing three runs, five hits and five walks in 3 2/3 innings of his first four Grapefruit League appearances, casting doubt in his manager, Jim Leyland, who told Jason Beck of MLBlogs.com last week that it was "possible" he'd rely on a closer-by-committee. Since then, however, Rondon has allowed one run on seven hits and two walks in six innings over six appearances, striking out nine, spawning more talk that he's "the guy." Leyland and the Tigers have been coy, but if the team has gone this far with Rondon atop their depth chart, there is little evidence he won't begin the year in that arrangement, which is why he's back up to 40th at his position in our rankings. Trending toward: Rondon, but for how long?

San Diego Padres second base: It has become a moot point, as the primary contenders, Jedd Gyorko and Logan Forsythe, now have a chance to both start, what with Chase Headley due to be out four to six weeks with a small fracture on the tip of his left thumb. Gyorko had been the leader, both in that the Padres all along seemed to want him to emerge victorious and that he's a .283/.309/.547 triple-slash spring hitter who appears major league ready. But there's a new wrinkle: Forsythe hasn't appeared in a Cactus League game since March 7 because of plantar fasciitis in his foot, opening the door for Alexi Amarista to potentially factor in the second-base race, per the San Diego Union-Tribune. If Forsythe is healthy -- and he's tentatively expected to return this weekend -- he'd man third with Gyorko at second, but if he's not, the Union-Tribune suggests Amarista would take second and Gyorko would slide to his drafted position of third. Either way, the upshot is that Gyorko is a safer, middle-infielder-in-mixed/second-base-in-NL-only investment with news he'll start somewhere, while NL-only sleeper-seekers need to read Forsythe's updates. Trending toward: Gyorko at second, Forsythe at third, until about May 1, then this battle might rekindle.

Detroit Tigers fifth starter: This one is dually compelling, first, because incumbent Rick Porcello has been the subject of trade rumors all winter, and second, because Jim Leyland insinuated on Tuesday that the Porcello-Drew Smyly "battle" is every bit a battle when he told the team's official website that "it's going to go down to the wire." Porcello and Smyly are both being prepped to handle 100-pitch workloads during the season's first week, meaning one of two things: The team has every intent to trade Porcello, or the team believes Smyly is the better choice. Both pitchers have excelled this spring, their combined ERAs 3.15 and K-to-walk ratios 10.00, so there's every reason to believe both could be in a big league rotation come April 1. The St. Louis Cardinals, San Diego Padres and Texas Rangers, after all, have been rumored to be interested in Porcello. Trending toward: Smyly winning, but Porcello also "winning" via a trade to a team with a stronger infield defense. Imagine the boost to their respective fantasy values if Smyly emerged in Detroit, with Porcello landing in St. Louis?

Minnesota Twins center field: After a Ruthian start to the Grapefruit League season -- he hit four home runs in a two-game span March 4 and 7, with an unofficial fifth in a March 6 exhibition against Puerto Rico -- Aaron Hicks' spring performance in his past nine games has been more "Hicksian." He's a .192/.300/.308 hitter with two stolen bases during that span; only Darin Mastroianni and his .429/.469/.607 triple-slash rates and seven steals in 13 total spring games is a remaining threat. Joe Benson (.151 AVG, 15 K in 53 AB) is effectively out of the running. Hicks' recent cooling might have a positive effect in fantasy: It'll temper his draft stock, which had soared because of the power outburst. Trending toward: Hicks was handed the job by most everybody outside the Twins' organization two weeks ago, but this one remains in the "undecided" class. He's the favorite, not the winner … yet.

Texas Rangers center field: Any Rangers offensive player is a potentially exciting fantasy pick, if only because of their stats-inflating home ballpark, but what makes contenders Craig Gentry and Leonys Martin all the more attractive sleeper picks is that both have enjoyed good springs. The problem, however, is that as players who hit from opposite sides, that breeds the potential for a plate appearance-suppressing straight platoon -- and it's an arrangement that makes sense if you knew Gentry batted .343/.425/.434 against left-handers in 2012. Martin lacks the steep platoon split that warrants such a partnership -- he had a 129-point differential leaning toward right-handers in Triple-A in 2011-12 combined -- so he'd be more intriguing pick if he could somehow emerge with the everyday role in these final 10 spring days. Trending toward: A straight platoon.

Colorado Rockies third base: A four-homer spring has prospect Nolan Arenado reportedly in the Rockies' plans, thanks in large part to Chris Nelson's struggles at the plate as well as the team's apparent preference to use .419-hitting (spring, that is) Jordan Pacheco in a utility role. Several sources indicate that Arenado could make the two-level jump from Double-A on Opening Day, though Rockies reporter Thomas Harding made an interesting case against the idea Tuesday: He noted that the victor of the third-base race would presumably bat eighth, a role that could be more challenging to a young power hitter because of the chance opponents might pitch around him with the pitcher's spot on deck. Do the Rockies agree? The answer is important in deep mixed and NL-only leagues, as the winner of this job could be anywhere from a $5 to $10 player in the latter … so long as it's a clear victor. Trending toward: It's unclear, probably should be Pacheco, and probably will be Nelson.

St. Louis Cardinals fifth starter: As with the Tigers' fifth starter battle, this one is dually compelling, first, because Keith Law's No. 21 prospect Shelby Miller is one of the two combatants, and second, because the Cardinals are one of the teams rumored to be interested in the aforementioned Porcello. Miller and Joe Kelly have pitched back-to-back in each of their past two appearances, with Miller by far the winner of their most recent game (4 shutout innings, compared with 4 runs on 8 hits in 3 innings for Kelly), though manager Mike Matheny has yet to declare a winner. Could one emerge by the next rotation turn -- somewhere between Sunday and Tuesday? Miller's prospective fantasy owners have to be rooting for him; he's the one with the best potential at $10-plus earnings. Trending toward: Miller; that this competition continues favors him, because he has the better stuff and it shows the team is taking his candidacy very seriously.

Los Angeles Dodgers fifth starter: From the onset of spring training, it was safe to assume that Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, the latter if healthy, are the Nos. 1 and 2, and Josh Beckett and Chad Billingsley, again the latter if healthy, are 3 and 4. If so, that left four pitchers -- Ted Lilly, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang -- fighting for one opening or, again like Porcello, auditioning for a trade to another team. Now the fun starts, as we'll list those four pitchers' spring ERAs in ascending order: Ryu 4.41, Capuano 7.20, Harang 8.10 and Lilly 9.45. So-so performance diminishes the chances of a trade, Capuano and Harang the most-rumored such candidates, and it makes it likely the team will make final decisions based upon contracts and health. For instance, Ryu cost a $61.7 million, six-year investment, boosting his odds, while Lilly could be stashed on the disabled list citing his ongoing recovery from shoulder surgery. This is quickly shaping up as a "fool's gold" of position battles, every one of these candidates an NL-only rather than mixed option. Trending toward: Ryu a starter, and the Dodgers sporting one of the more expensive long relief corps in baseball.

Tampa Bay Rays fifth starter: There's a Roberto Hernandez of interest in Tampa Bay once more! The former Fausto Carmona is up against Jeff Niemann for the gig, and after a Thursday performance including six innings of one-run, three-hit, ground ball-generating goodness, Hernandez seemed to take a step forward in the race. "They're both looking very good," Rays manager Joe Maddon told the Tampa Bay Times. "We have some nice difficult decisions to make." The Times notes that no decision is imminent, so Hernandez and Niemann will each pitch again next week before the final call is made. Trending toward: Hernandez, and don't be so quick to dismiss him as an AL-only late-rounder, considering the relative pitching wizardry in Tampa Bay these past few years.

[h=3]Quick hitters
Arizona Diamondbacks fifth starter: With Tyler Skaggs optioned to Triple-A Reno on Monday, this one's down to Patrick Corbin versus Randall Delgado, and Corbin (3.68 ERA, 3.75 K/BB) thus far has the slight spring statistical advantage (5.25 and 4.00 for Delgado). NL-only owners still need to track the battle, but Corbin's experience -- it coming in Arizona, that is -- might provide the advantage.

Baltimore Orioles fifth starter: Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz hold the advantage over Zach Britton and Steve Johnson, and Arrieta probably pulled ahead with his six-shutout-inning, nine-K, two-walk performance on Thursday. Still, there's a way the Orioles could get both leaders onto the roster -- that meaning besides No. 4 starter Chris Tillman suffering an injury setback: handing Arrieta this job and restoring Matusz to the lefty specialist role in which he pitched well late last year. Keep that in mind, if you're a fan of Matusz as an AL-only sleeper.

New York Yankees fifth starter: Back-to-back mediocre outings have dropped David Phelps behind Ivan Nova in the race, making it increasingly likely that Phelps will slot in the No. 6/injury fill-in starter -- a role the Yankees will surely need to call upon in-season. Phil Hughes (back) is due to make his Grapefruit League debut next week, so there's already enough health risk present in this rotation that Phelps warrants a final-round, $1-$2 AL-only bid.

Toronto Blue Jays second base: Though Emilio Bonifacio (.326/.367/.565 with 7 SB) has outplayed Maicer Izturis (.225/.295/.300) during the Grapefruit League, Izturis' defensive advantage could keep these two in a straight platoon to begin the year. In fact, manager John Gibbons admitted as such, telling The Globe and Mail, "It could turn out where we won't say, 'This guy is our second baseman.'" Still, Bonifacio should get at least half the playing time, more than enough to earn eligibility there, keeping him on the mixed-league bargain list.

St. Louis Cardinals second base: Matt Carpenter batted .299 during his minor league career, .294 for the Cardinals last year, and he has continued to hit for a high average -- .400, specifically -- this spring. That has put him in the lead for the starting second base gig, though it's interesting that both he and Daniel Descalso, his competition, have made starts at other positions in the past week. Descalso is shaping up as more the utilityman, meaning that Carpenter's stock has risen to the point where he's a worthy mixed-league late-rounder.

Cleveland Indians fourth and fifth starters: Zach McAllister (5.02 spring ERA) was named the fourth starter earlier this week, and there might have been some clarity on the fifth starter gig Thursday, as Trevor Bauer was optioned to Triple-A Columbus and Carlos Carrasco served up four runs on eight hits in five innings. As unbelievable as it might seem, Scott Kazmir (and his eight shutout spring innings) is probably in the lead, especially backed by manager Terry Francona's glowing reviews. Kazmir's command has long been a problem, but remember this: He has eight K's and one walk this spring. There's enough promise that he's worthy of a late-round gamble in AL-only formats.

[/h]

HacheMan · Mar 24, 2013

Closer Chart

ESPN.com

[h=4]Fantasy bullpen organization chart (last updated March 23)[/h]The chart below breaks down all 30 major-league teams' bullpens in terms of relievers' proximity to the closer role, not their overall fantasy value. Teams are listed in alphabetical order.
"Closer" is either that team's officially designated closer, or the pitcher most likely to get the team's next save chance. "Next in line" is the pitcher next-most likely to take over if something happens to the closer, or the one who might get any save chances on the closer's nights off. "Stealth" is a dark-horse candidate for saves, for those digging deep. These pitchers typically don't pose an imminent threat to the closer's job security, but might, given time. "Looming" is a pitcher who has his sights set on the closer role but whose circumstances might currently prevent him from doing so. Generally speaking, usual closers who are on hurt and/or on the disabled list (designated as "Inj." or "DL"), bereavement list ("BL") or restricted list ("RL"), closer-worthy pitchers currently working out of the rotation, specialists (especially lefties) or "next in line" options presently in the minors fit the description.
Prominent free agents: Francisco Cordero, Francisco Rodriguez, Jose Valverde, Brian Wilson.

Team <CENTER>Closer </CENTER> <CENTER>Next in line </CENTER> <CENTER>Stealth </CENTER> <CENTER>Looming </CENTER>

J.J. Putz David Hernandez Heath Bell Brad Ziegler

Craig Kimbrel Jonny Venters Jordan Walden Eric O'Flaherty

Jim Johnson Pedro Strop Darren O'Day Tommy Hunter

Joel Hanrahan Andrew Bailey Koji Uehara Daniel Bard

Carlos Marmol Kyuji Fujikawa James Russell Shawn Camp

Addison Reed Matt Thornton Jesse Crain Nate Jones

Aroldis Chapman Jonathan Broxton Sean Marshall J.J. Hoover

Chris Perez Vinnie Pestano Matt Albers Matt Capps

Rafael Betancourt Rex Brothers Wilton Lopez Matt Belisle

Bruce Rondon Phil Coke Joaquin Benoit Octavio Dotel

Jose Veras Wesley Wright Hector Ambriz Josh Fields

Greg Holland Aaron Crow Tim Collins Kelvin Herrera

Ernesto Frieri Scott Downs Kevin Jepsen Ryan Madson (Inj.)

Brandon League Kenley Jansen Ronald Belisario Javy Guerra

Steve Cishek Jon Rauch Mike Dunn A.J. Ramos

John Axford Mike Gonzalez Jim Henderson Tom Gorzelanny

Glen Perkins Jared Burton Alex Burnett Casey Fien

Bobby Parnell Brandon Lyon Josh Edgin Frank Francisco (Inj.)

Mariano Rivera David Robertson Joba Chamberlain David Aardsma

Grant Balfour Ryan Cook Sean Doolittle Chris Resop

Jonathan Papelbon Mike Adams Phillippe Aumont Antonio Bastardo

Jason Grilli Mark Melancon Jared Hughes Tony Watson

Mitchell Boggs Edward Mujica Trevor Rosenthal Jason Motte (Inj)

Huston Street Luke Gregerson Dale Thayer Brad Boxberger

Sergio Romo Javier Lopez Santiago Casilla Heath Hembree

Tom Wilhelmsen Stephen Pryor Lucas Luetge Carter Capps

Fernando Rodney Joel Peralta Jake McGee Kyle Farnsworth

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Joe Nathan Jason Frasor Tanner Scheppers Joakim Soria (Inj)

Casey Janssen Sergio Santos Steve Delabar Esmil Rogers

Rafael Soriano Drew Storen Tyler Clippard Christian Garcia

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>

HacheMan · Mar 24, 2013

Sleeper Tour: Chisenhall ready to shine

Eric Karabell

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- Spring training lineups shouldn't be taken too seriously, but when a manager hits someone new at the No. 3 or 4 slots in the order this late in the spring season, it can tip his hand to season expectations in terms of pending power. In the case of Cleveland Indians third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall, who has hit well this spring, manager Terry Francona has noticed. Chisenhall hit out of the No. 3 spot for Thursday's afternoon clash against right-hander Ian Kennedy and the Arizona Diamondbacks at Salt River Fields in Scottsdale, and who knows, it might not be the last time we see it.
<OFFER>Chisenhall, like many of the players I've spoken to on my Sleeper Tour this week, has nice spring numbers (.405 batting average, four home runs). As Francona told me after the Indians' 5-4 victory, "We'd like Lonnie to hit and run with the job. His play will dictate it, and he's had a heck of a spring."

</OFFER>
Fantasy owners in ESPN average live drafts don't appear to be considering Chisenhall, but he's precisely the type of post-hype sleeper who tends to fall through the cracks. After all, he's only 24. I asked the first-round pick from the 2008 draft if the past few seasons with the Tribe were frustrating.

"I don't want to use words like that," said Chisenhall, who has hit .260 with 12 home runs and has a .716 OBP over 374 career plate appearances in two seasons. "I was doing something I had never done before. I'm used to being an every-day player, and I wasn't getting consistent at-bats. I got to the major leagues fast, and it was a learning experience. I think I'm just a little more settled in now."

Chisenhall roped an opposite-field single to left field off Kennedy in the first inning, then later struck out and drew a walk. A day earlier, he homered off Los Angeles Angels lefty Sean Burnett, a promising sign for a hitter who has struggled against lefties. Another reason it has been difficult to project big numbers for Chisenhall has been a lack of plate discipline, especially in the majors, but he didn't exactly draw a lot of walks in the minors, either.

"I came up and was trying to prove myself, trying to swing at every pitch," said Chisenhall, who was 22 when he debuted in the majors. "When I swing at better pitches, I do much more damage. My focus is on swinging at strikes, and I'm headed in the right direction."

ESPN Fantasy cautiously projects 12 home runs and 56 RBIs, with a .266 batting average this season in 406 at-bats. If those at-bats rise, however, and they should, why can't this guy make a run at 20 homers? Chisenhall is confident the numbers will come.

"They told me I will be in there every day, get the majority of at-bats at third base," he said. "I don't have one at-bat to prove myself. It's a longevity thing this year; I'll get my 500 at-bats and hit the ball hard. I can hit 20-25 home runs. That's what is asked of third basemen nowadays. I'll take my doubles, too. As for facing lefties, I really haven't had a problem with that, and I think I'll do OK, hold my own against them. I really haven't faced major league lefties on a consistent basis."

Meanwhile, one of the stars of Thursday's game was Indians outfielder Michael Brantley, who swatted a three-run homer in the first inning. Brantley is only slightly more popular than Chisenhall in terms of ADP, going in the 23rd round.

I asked him about the home run, his first of the spring, and he laughed. "No sir, I'm not a power hitter, not like [Chisenhall]. 'Chis' has more thump than I do," Brantley said. "I just try to maintain my swing, swing at good pitches. At times last year I expanded the zone."

Brantley will help fantasy owners more in terms of a safe batting average (he hit .288 in 2012), and he also steals bases (12 last season). ESPN Fantasy projects 15 steals in 2013. I asked Brantley about his stolen base potential, because he has the speed to contribute more in the category, and his OBP was a decent .348 last season. He pointed to teammate Michael Bourn and said he could challenge him in the category, eliciting laughs from those around him. When I asked whether he was serious, Brantley replied, "You say I can't do it. I'm gonna do it just for you." There was a pause, then Brantley said, "not realistically," and the room roared with laughter. Still, Brantley sees personal upside in the running game. "I'm going to get more opportunities to run. We have a great lineup behind me, and they should see off-speed pitches, so I can run."

For now, I'd call the power upside of Chisenhall more enticing than the safety of Brantley, but the case can be made for each in 12-team formats.

Game notes: Arizona's Kennedy was hit hard, allowing nine hits in his five innings. His spring ERA rose to 7.59. Still, Kennedy fanned seven Indians, and like most pitchers secure in their roles, he said he'd be ready for Opening Day. … The Indians' Carlos Carrasco, never a high-end option before his Tommy John surgery, is battling Scott Kazmir for the No. 5 rotation spot. I'm trying to be upbeat about Kazmir, who was last relevant in fantasy in 2008, but has reportedly been throwing well. I'd just stay away, with the potential for bad April outings not being worth it, unless he's on your bench. … For AL-only owners who might need to consider anyone with a job, Ryan Raburn slashed a pair of doubles off Kennedy and is hitting .368 this spring. Raburn was unplayable in 2012, but in the three seasons prior to that, he averaged 15 home runs, mainly with strong second halves. He could spell Brantley and potentially second baseman Jason Kipnis against tougher left-handed pitchers. … Adam Eaton, whom I blogged about a few weeks ago and wholeheartedly recommend for 30 steals, swiped his third base of the spring. Then again, he has been caught four times. In his brief big league stint last season, Eaton was 2-for-5. I'm not reading into this yet, but he's not much of a sleeper unless he's successfully stealing many bases.

Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	1	Mass	Miguel Cabrera, Det 3B
2	2	Gramling	Mike Trout, LAA OF
3	3	Roberts	Ryan Braun, Mil OF
4	4	Carpenter	Robinson Cano, NYY 2B
5	5	Zola	Justin Verlander, Det SP
6	6	Karabell	Albert Pujols, LAA 1B
7	7	Becquey	Prince Fielder, Det 1B
8	8	Cwalinski	Clayton Kershaw, LAD SP
9	9	Hunter	Felix Hernandez, Sea SP
10	10	Cockcroft	Joey Votto, Cin 1B

Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	11	Cockcroft	Stephen Strasburg, Wsh SP
2	12	Hunter	David Price, TB SP
3	13	Cwalinski	Jose Bautista, Tor OF
4	14	Becquey	Troy Tulowitzki, Col SS
5	15	Karabell	Adrian Beltre, Tex 3B
6	16	Zola	Jose Reyes, Tor SS
7	17	Carpenter	Edwin Encarnacion, Tor 1B
8	18	Roberts	Andrew McCutchen, Pit OF
9	19	Gramling	Matt Kemp, LAD OF
10	20	Mass	Evan Longoria, TB 3B

Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	21	Mass	Matt Holliday, StL OF
2	22	Gramling	Carlos Gonzalez, Col OF
3	23	Roberts	Ian Kinsler, Tex 2B
4	24	Carpenter	Cliff Lee, Phi SP
5	25	Zola	Yu Darvish, Tex SP
6	26	Karabell	Dustin Pedroia, Bos 2B
7	27	Becquey	Buster Posey, SF C
8	28	Cwalinski	Cole Hamels, Phi SP
9	29	Hunter	David Wright, NYM 3B
10	30	Cockcroft	Ben Zobrist, TB OF

Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	31	Cockcroft	Craig Kimbrel, Atl RP
2	32	Hunter	Matt Cain, SF SP
3	33	Cwalinski	Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh 3B
4	34	Becquey	Jered Weaver, LAA SP
5	35	Karabell	Josh Hamilton, LAA OF
6	36	Zola	Adam Wainwright, StL SP
7	37	Carpenter	Martin Prado, Ari OF
8	38	Roberts	Gio Gonzalez, Wsh SP
9	39	Gramling	Starlin Castro, ChC SS
10	40	Mass	Billy Butler, KC 1B

Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	41	Mass	CC Sabathia, NYY SP
2	42	Gramling	Adrian Gonzalez, LAD 1B
3	43	Roberts	Zack Greinke, LAD SP
4	44	Carpenter	Jimmy Rollins, Phi SS
5	45	Zola	Aramis Ramirez, Mil 3B
6	46	Karabell	Jay Bruce, Cin OF
7	47	Becquey	Justin Upton, Atl OF
8	48	Cwalinski	Madison Bumgarner, SF SP
9	49	Hunter	Jason Heyward, Atl OF
10	50	Cockcroft	Bryce Harper, Wsh OF

Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	51	Cockcroft	Carlos Santana, Cle C
2	52	Hunter	Brandon Phillips, Cin 2B
3	53	Cwalinski	Adam Jones, Bal OF
4	54	Becquey	R.A. Dickey, Tor SP
5	55	Karabell	Hanley Ramirez, LAD 3B
6	56	Zola	Allen Craig, StL 1B
7	57	Carpenter	Giancarlo Stanton, Mia OF
8	58	Roberts	Mat Latos, Cin SP
9	59	Gramling	Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos OF
10	60	Mass	Jonathan Papelbon, Phi RP

Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	61	Mass	Jason Motte, StL RP
2	62	Gramling	Chris Sale, CWS SP
3	63	Roberts	Joe Mauer, Min C
4	64	Carpenter	Victor Martinez, Det C
5	65	Zola	Yovani Gallardo, Mil SP
6	66	Karabell	Aaron Hill, Ari 2B
7	67	Becquey	Pablo Sandoval, SF 3B
8	68	Cwalinski	Chase Headley, SD 3B
9	69	Hunter	Yoenis Cespedes, Oak OF
10	70	Cockcroft	Max Scherzer, Det SP

Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	71	Cockcroft	Alex Gordon, KC OF
2	72	Hunter	Aroldis Chapman, Cin SP
3	73	Cwalinski	James Shields, KC SP
4	74	Becquey	Roy Halladay, Phi SP
5	75	Karabell	Matt Moore, TB SP
6	76	Zola	Melky Cabrera, Tor OF
7	77	Carpenter	Johnny Cueto, Cin SP
8	78	Roberts	Brett Lawrie, Tor 3B
9	79	Gramling	Yadier Molina, StL C
10	80	Mass	Rafael Soriano, Wsh RP

Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	81	Mass	Jim Johnson, Bal RP
2	82	Gramling	Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh SP
3	83	Roberts	Jason Kipnis, Cle 2B
4	84	Carpenter	Carlos Beltran, StL OF
5	85	Zola	Alex Rios, CWS OF
6	86	Karabell	Kris Medlen, Atl SP
7	87	Becquey	Marco Scutaro, SF 2B
8	88	Cwalinski	Freddie Freeman, Atl 1B
9	89	Hunter	J.J. Hardy, Bal SS
10	90	Cockcroft	Fernando Rodney, TB RP

Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	91	Cockcroft	Austin Jackson, Det OF
2	92	Hunter	Paul Konerko, CWS 1B
3	93	Cwalinski	Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle SS
4	94	Becquey	Josh Willingham, Min OF
5	95	Karabell	Eric Hosmer, KC 1B
6	96	Zola	Paul Goldschmidt, Ari 1B
7	97	Carpenter	Elvis Andrus, Tex SS
8	98	Roberts	David Ortiz, Bos DH
9	99	Gramling	Jose Altuve, Hou 2B
10	100	Mass	Matt Wieters, Bal C

Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	101	Mass	Shane Victorino, Bos OF
2	102	Gramling	Joe Nathan, Tex RP
3	103	Roberts	Ike Davis, NYM 1B
4	104	Carpenter	Michael Young, Phi 1B
5	105	Zola	Nick Markakis, Bal OF
6	106	Karabell	Tim Lincecum, SF SP
7	107	Becquey	Jake Peavy, CWS SP
8	108	Cwalinski	Ian Kennedy, Ari SP
9	109	Hunter	Hunter Pence, SF OF
10	110	Cockcroft	Addison Reed, CWS RP

Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	111	Cockcroft	Nick Swisher, Cle OF
2	112	Hunter	Josh Johnson, Tor SP
3	113	Cwalinski	Chase Utley, Phi 2B
4	114	Becquey	Curtis Granderson, NYY OF
5	115	Karabell	Dan Haren, Wsh SP
6	116	Zola	Shin-Soo Choo, Cin OF
7	117	Carpenter	B.J. Upton, Atl OF
8	118	Roberts	Anthony Rizzo, ChC 1B
9	119	Gramling	Jon Lester, Bos SP
10	120	Mass	Ian Desmond, Wsh SS

Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	121	Mass	John Axford, Mil RP
2	122	Gramling	Adam LaRoche, Wsh 1B
3	123	Roberts	Anibal Sanchez, Det SP
4	124	Carpenter	Hiroki Kuroda, NYY SP
5	125	Zola	C.J. Wilson, LAA SP
6	126	Karabell	Greg Holland, KC RP
7	127	Becquey	Brandon Morrow, Tor SP
8	128	Cwalinski	Sergio Romo, SF RP
9	129	Hunter	Doug Fister, Det SP
10	130	Cockcroft	Mark Teixeira, NYY 1B

Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	131	Cockcroft	Derek Jeter, NYY SS
2	132	Hunter	J.J. Putz, Ari RP
3	133	Cwalinski	Angel Pagan, SF OF
4	134	Becquey	Dan Uggla, Atl 2B
5	135	Karabell	Mariano Rivera, NYY RP
6	136	Zola	Juan Pierre, Mia OF
7	137	Carpenter	Alexi Ogando, Tex SP
8	138	Roberts	Rafael Betancourt, Col RP
9	139	Gramling	Jeff Samardzija, ChC SP
10	140	Mass	Josh Reddick, Oak OF

Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	141	Mass	Norichika Aoki, Mil OF
2	142	Gramling	Manny Machado, Bal 3B
3	143	Roberts	Torii Hunter, Det OF
4	144	Carpenter	Joel Hanrahan, Bos RP
5	145	Zola	Matt Harrison, Tex SP
6	146	Karabell	Lance Lynn, StL SP
7	147	Becquey	Mike Moustakas, KC 3B
8	148	Cwalinski	Huston Street, SD RP
9	149	Hunter	Neil Walker, Pit 2B
10	150	Cockcroft	Ernesto Frieri, LAA RP

Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	151	Cockcroft	Kevin Youkilis, NYY 3B
2	152	Hunter	Lance Berkman, Tex 1B
3	153	Cwalinski	Michael Cuddyer, Col OF
4	154	Becquey	Andre Ethier, LAD OF
5	155	Karabell	Jonathon Niese, NYM SP
6	156	Zola	Alexei Ramirez, CWS SS
7	157	Carpenter	Michael Bourn, Cle OF
8	158	Roberts	Derek Holland, Tex SP
9	159	Gramling	Nelson Cruz, Tex OF
10	160	Mass	Mark Trumbo, LAA OF

Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	161	Mass	Dustin Ackley, Sea 2B
2	162	Gramling	Chris Perez, Cle RP
3	163	Roberts	Casey Janssen, Tor RP
4	164	Carpenter	Desmond Jennings, TB OF
5	165	Zola	Homer Bailey, Cin SP
6	166	Karabell	Kenley Jansen, LAD RP
7	167	Becquey	Jarrod Parker, Oak SP
8	168	Cwalinski	Mike Minor, Atl SP
9	169	Hunter	Ichiro Suzuki, NYY OF
10	170	Cockcroft	Dexter Fowler, Col OF

Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	171	Cockcroft	Glen Perkins, Min RP
2	172	Hunter	Marco Estrada, Mil SP
3	173	Cwalinski	Jason Grilli, Pit RP
4	174	Becquey	Jason Kubel, Ari OF
5	175	Karabell	Ryan Howard, Phi 1B
6	176	Zola	Rickie Weeks, Mil 2B
7	177	Carpenter	Phil Hughes, NYY SP
8	178	Roberts	Corey Hart, Mil 1B
9	179	Gramling	Bruce Rondon, Det RP
10	180	Mass	Tom Wilhelmsen, Sea RP

Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	181	Mass	Kyuji Fujikawa, ChC RP
2	182	Gramling	Matt Harvey, NYM SP
3	183	Roberts	Jonathan Broxton, Cin RP
4	184	Carpenter	Brett Myers, Cle SP
5	185	Zola	Jeremy Hellickson, TB SP
6	186	Karabell	Alfonso Soriano, ChC OF
7	187	Becquey	Colby Rasmus, Tor OF
8	188	Cwalinski	Miguel Montero, Ari C
9	189	Hunter	David Murphy, Tex OF
10	190	Cockcroft	Jed Lowrie, Oak SS

Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	191	Cockcroft	Grant Balfour, Oak RP
2	192	Hunter	Salvador Perez, KC C
3	193	Cwalinski	Kendrys Morales, Sea 1B
4	194	Becquey	Michael Brantley, Cle OF
5	195	Karabell	Steve Cishek, Mia RP
6	196	Zola	Trevor Cahill, Ari SP
7	197	Carpenter	Hisashi Iwakuma, Sea SP
8	198	Roberts	Brett Anderson, Oak SP
9	199	Gramling	David Freese, StL 3B
10	200	Mass	Josh Rutledge, Col SS

MLB Fantasy News 2013

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Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	201	Mass	Kyle Seager, Sea 3B
2	202	Gramling	Andrelton Simmons, Atl SS
3	203	Roberts	Alejandro De Aza, CWS OF
4	204	Carpenter	Erick Aybar, LAA SS
5	205	Zola	Mike Napoli, Bos C
6	206	Karabell	Ryan Dempster, Bos SP
7	207	Becquey	Jeff Keppinger, CWS 3B
8	208	Cwalinski	Daniel Murphy, NYM 2B
9	209	Hunter	Justin Morneau, Min 1B
10	210	Cockcroft	Yonder Alonso, SD 1B

Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	211	Cockcroft	Alex Cobb, TB SP
2	212	Hunter	Ryan Madson, LAA RP
3	213	Cwalinski	Brett Gardner, NYY OF
4	214	Becquey	Tim Hudson, Atl SP
5	215	Karabell	Michael Morse, Sea OF
6	216	Zola	Carlos Quentin, SD OF
7	217	Carpenter	Wade Miley, Ari SP
8	218	Roberts	Alcides Escobar, KC SS
9	219	Gramling	Ryan Vogelsong, SF SP
10	220	Mass	Bobby Parnell, NYM RP

Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	221	Mass	Tommy Milone, Oak SP
2	222	Gramling	Jose Veras, Hou RP
3	223	Roberts	Garrett Jones, Pit 1B
4	224	Carpenter	Brandon McCarthy, Ari SP
5	225	Zola	Brandon League, LAD RP
6	226	Karabell	Chris Davis, Bal 1B
7	227	Becquey	A.J. Burnett, Pit SP
8	228	Cwalinski	Matt Garza, ChC SP
9	229	Hunter	Carl Crawford, LAD OF
10	230	Cockcroft	Josh Beckett, LAD SP

Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	231	Cockcroft	Jason Vargas, LAA SP
2	232	Hunter	Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD SP
3	233	Cwalinski	Coco Crisp, Oak OF
4	234	Becquey	James McDonald, Pit SP
5	235	Karabell	Edwin Jackson, ChC SP
6	236	Zola	Vinnie Pestano, Cle RP
7	237	Carpenter	Pedro Alvarez, Pit 3B
8	238	Roberts	Chris Capuano, LAD SP
9	239	Gramling	Wandy Rodriguez, Pit SP
10	240	Mass	Drew Storen, Wsh RP

Pick	Overall	By	Player
1	241	Mass	Andy Dirks, Det OF
2	242	Gramling	Logan Morrison, Mia OF
3	243	Roberts	Jaime Garcia, StL SP
4	244	Carpenter	Ben Revere, Phi OF
5	245	Zola	Clay Buchholz, Bos SP
6	246	Karabell	Jesus Montero, Sea C
7	247	Becquey	Mark Buehrle, Tor SP
8	248	Cwalinski	Mike Fiers, Mil SP
9	249	Hunter	Danny Espinosa, Wsh 2B
10	250	Cockcroft	Ryan Cook, Oak P

Team	<CENTER>Closer </CENTER>	<CENTER>Next in line </CENTER>	<CENTER>Stealth </CENTER>	<CENTER>Looming </CENTER>
	J.J. Putz	David Hernandez	Heath Bell	Brad Ziegler
	Craig Kimbrel	Jonny Venters	Jordan Walden	Eric O'Flaherty
	Jim Johnson	Pedro Strop	Darren O'Day	Tommy Hunter
	Joel Hanrahan	Andrew Bailey	Koji Uehara	Daniel Bard
	Carlos Marmol	Kyuji Fujikawa	James Russell	Shawn Camp
	Addison Reed	Matt Thornton	Jesse Crain	Nate Jones
	Aroldis Chapman	Jonathan Broxton	Sean Marshall	J.J. Hoover
	Chris Perez	Vinnie Pestano	Matt Albers	Matt Capps
	Rafael Betancourt	Rex Brothers	Wilton Lopez	Matt Belisle
	Bruce Rondon	Phil Coke	Joaquin Benoit	Octavio Dotel
	Jose Veras	Wesley Wright	Hector Ambriz	Josh Fields
	Greg Holland	Aaron Crow	Tim Collins	Kelvin Herrera
	Ernesto Frieri	Scott Downs	Kevin Jepsen	Ryan Madson (Inj.)
	Brandon League	Kenley Jansen	Ronald Belisario	Javy Guerra
	Steve Cishek	Jon Rauch	Mike Dunn	A.J. Ramos
	John Axford	Mike Gonzalez	Jim Henderson	Tom Gorzelanny
	Glen Perkins	Jared Burton	Alex Burnett	Casey Fien
	Bobby Parnell	Brandon Lyon	Josh Edgin	Frank Francisco (Inj.)
	Mariano Rivera	David Robertson	Joba Chamberlain	David Aardsma
	Grant Balfour	Ryan Cook	Sean Doolittle	Chris Resop
	Jonathan Papelbon	Mike Adams	Phillippe Aumont	Antonio Bastardo
	Jason Grilli	Mark Melancon	Jared Hughes	Tony Watson
	Mitchell Boggs	Edward Mujica	Trevor Rosenthal	Jason Motte (Inj)
	Huston Street	Luke Gregerson	Dale Thayer	Brad Boxberger
	Sergio Romo	Javier Lopez	Santiago Casilla	Heath Hembree
	Tom Wilhelmsen	Stephen Pryor	Lucas Luetge	Carter Capps
	Fernando Rodney	Joel Peralta	Jake McGee	Kyle Farnsworth
$tex.gif$	Joe Nathan	Jason Frasor	Tanner Scheppers	Joakim Soria (Inj)
	Casey Janssen	Sergio Santos	Steve Delabar	Esmil Rogers
	Rafael Soriano	Drew Storen	Tyler Clippard	Christian Garcia