MLB Fantasy News 2011

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hacheman@therx.com
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Minor Threat

Welcome to the 25th and final edition of Waiver Wired for the 2011 season. Has this year passed by in a flash or what? Anyway, like I said last week, if you are still reading this thing, that means you are likely still in the thick of things in your league. Good for you. I sincerely hope Rotoworld has made your season a little easier to navigate.

It has been a real privilege to write this column for a second straight season, but one of the best parts about this job is interacting with you, the reader. Please keep those e-mails and Tweets coming during the winter. I do my best to catch up on them throughout the week.

Just like I did last year, I'm handing out some Waiver Wired awards on the second page, so be sure to check those out after you take a gander at this week's recommendations. Farewell, good luck and most importantly, thanks for reading.

MIXED LEAGUES

Jason Bourgeois OF, Astros (Yahoo: 6 percent owned, ESPN: 13.9 percent)

Many assumed (your humble host included) that Bourgeois would get significant playing time following the trades of Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn. It hasn't exactly worked out that way due to the presence of J.D. Martinez, Jordan Schafer and Brian Bogusevic, but the 29-year-old outfielder continues to steal bases at a rapid rate. In fact, he has swiped seven bags in just 13 games this month. Be careful to watch Brad Mills' lineup card, but the speedy Bourgeois is legitimate weapon when given the opportunity.

Omar Infante 2B/3B/SS/OF, Marlins (Yahoo: 40 percent owned, ESPN: 47.9 percent)

Infante may not be tearing the cover off the ball like he did in late-July and August, but he does have three homers, five doubles, one triple, 10 RBI and 11 runs scored through 21 games this month. That's perfectly acceptable production for a second baseman or shortstop in deeper mixed leagues. Firmly entrenched as the primary No. 2 hitter in Jack McKeon's lineup, the impending free agent should have plenty of chances to deliver value the rest of the way.

Mike Aviles 2B/3B/SS, Red Sox (Yahoo: 20 percent owned, ESPN: 16.8 percent)

Kevin Youkilis continues to deal with a sports hernia and left hip soreness and while he hopes to hit before Friday's game against the Yankees, his status remains very much in doubt. Aviles, who was acquired from the Royals at the trade deadline, has at least stepped in admirably during his absence, hitting .375 (9-for-24) with two homers, three doubles and five runs scored over his last seven games. He even batted second in Thursday's loss to the Orioles. While his value may be fleeting, his multi-position eligibility should come in handy right now.

Mike Moustakas 3B, Royals (Yahoo: 19 percent owned, ESPN: 22.5 percent)

The late-season surge continues. After batting .283 last month, the rookie third baseman is hitting .318 (21-for-66) so far in September. He has homered three times in his last seven games after hitting just one home run over his first 73 games in the big leagues. The 23-year-old displayed immense power potential during his time in the minor leagues, so it's worth a shot in deeper leagues to see if he has finally figured things out.

Ben Revere OF, Twins (Yahoo: 9 percent owned, ESPN: 18.9 percent)

Revere is hitting .314 (22-for-70) this month, but that's not why I'm recommending him here. We're talking about someone whose fantasy value is directly tied to their speed. The rookie outfielder has 33 stolen bases in 42 attempts this season, including eight through 16 games this month. Denard Span returned to the lineup on Wednesday night, but Revere should see regular playing time in left field over the final week of the season. If you need steals, he is one of the best options available.

Santiago Casilla RP, Giants (Yahoo: 10 percent owned, ESPN: 11.7 percent)

Yes, Brian Wilson is back, but I'm not convinced that he'll handle a full workload the rest of the way. Casilla was the primary fill-in during his absence and would presumably get the nod if Bruce Bochy shies away from using him on back-to-back days. The Giants may even decide to shut Wilson down if or when they mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. With saves at a premium right now, I wouldn't give up on Casilla in deeper leagues.

Logan Morrison OF, Marlins (Yahoo: 29 percent owned, ESPN: 41.9 percent)

Morrison's sophomore campaign has been somewhat of a disappointment, but he has turned things on a bit in September. The 24-year-old is batting .291 (16-for-55) with four homers, eight RBI, a .945 OPS and an 8/9 K/BB ratio so far this month. Marlins manager Jack McKeon has batted him mostly fourth or fifth in recent days, so LoMo is in prime position to drive in some runs over the final week of the season.

Editor’s note: If you want to play Daily Salary Cap Fantasy Baseball for real money, check out SnapDraft here.

Suitable streamers:

Small sample size, but three out of our four streaming options from last week walked away with wins and all of them delivered quality starts. Not bad. Here are three options for this weekend. I don't want to leave you hanging for next week, but as you probably know, a lot of things are bound to change by then. With that in mind, look for two last-minute streaming options in Tuesday's edition of the Daily Dose.

Aaron Harang SP, Padres (Yahoo: 42 percent owned, ESPN: 26 percent)

vs. Dodgers on Saturday

Harang has four losses over his past six starts, but don't let that scare you away. The big right-hander has a nifty 2.92 ERA and 31/14 K/BB ratio over 37 innings during the same timespan. He has been one of my favorite spot-starters this season, especially at spacious PETCO Park, where he has a 3.29 ERA across 16 starts. The home run ball has hurt him a bit lately, but he's one of the better streaming options available this weekend.

Mike Minor SP, Braves (Yahoo: 21 percent owned, ESPN: 21 percent)

@ Washington on Sunday

Minor allowed four runs (including three home runs) over 5 2/3 innings in a no-decision against the Marlins on Monday, but the young left-hander has a 4.03 ERA and a terrific 46/13 ERA in 44 2/3 innings across eight starts since returning from the minors in early August. While he isn't pitching deep into games recently, completing six innings just once in his past five starts, he should continue to be an excellent source of strikeouts.

Cory Luebke RP/SP, Padres (Yahoo: 43 percent owned, ESPN: 43.8 percent)

vs. Dodgers on Sunday

It's stunning that Luebke is still so widely available, especially after he took a no-hitter into the bottom of the sixth inning in his last start Monday against the Rockies. The rookie left-hander has been a reliable fantasy option since moving to the starting rotation in late-June, posting a 3.23 ERA and 105/25 K/BB ratio over 94 2/3 innings. He'll face Clayton Kershaw on Sunday, which obviously isn't the easiest way to get a win, but I still like his chances of keeping the Dodgers' bats in check.

<!--RW-->AL ONLY

Francisco Liriano SP, Twins (Yahoo: 57 percent owned, ESPN: 40.2 percent)

First off, ignore the ownership numbers. At this point of the season, they are pretty worthless. The Twins floated the possibility of shutting Liriano down earlier this month, so there's at least a decent chance that he was dropped in most redraft leagues. Anyway, not only is Liriano back from the disabled list, but the Twins plan to give him a start during Saturday's doubleheader against the Indians. There's risk involved here, to be sure, but would six or seven solid innings really surprise you? Not me.

Chris Parmelee 1B, Twins (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.6 percent)

Since being called up from the minors on September 6, Parmelee is hitting .413 (19-for-46) with two homers, four doubles, nine RBI and a 6/7 K/BB ratio. This includes five straight multi-hit games. The 2006 first-round pick has coincidentally batted cleanup in each of his last five games, so he should continue to get plenty of chances to drive in runs. He could be a name to watch at first base next season if Justin Morneau continues to have difficulty with concussion issues and/or playing the field.

NL ONLY

Jerry Sands OF, Dodgers (Yahoo: 2 percent owned, ESPN: 3.2 percent)

Don't look now, but Sands is one of the hottest hitters in the majors at the moment. The 23-year-old scuffled in his first taste of the big leagues earlier this summer, but is batting .375 (18-for-48) with two homers, three doubles and nine RBI since returning on September. He's a no brainer add in NL-only leagues, but may also be worth a look in five-outfielder mixed formats.

Randall Delgado SP, Braves (Yahoo: 4 percent owned, ESPN: 4 percent)

Delgado continues to show plenty of promise. The 21-year-old right-hander has a 2.25 ERA over four starts in September and has allowed three earned runs or less in all of them. On the other hand, he has yet to go beyond five innings in a start and his 18/13 K/BB ratio over 30 innings this season is pretty underwhelming. I wouldn't touch him in mixed leagues quite yet, but he could make for a decent streaming option in NL-only leagues next Monday, especially if the Phillies field one of their B-lineups.

The 2011 Waiver Wired Awards:

A couple things before we get started. Last year I had each category named after an obscure Met from my lifetime. I didn't receive any complaints, so we're sticking with that this year.

Also, I admittedly whiffed on a few guys this season, so you won't see them below. This includes names like Emilio Bonifacio, Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera. But really, can you blame me? I did mention Brett Lawrie in a column earlier this season, but that was before he broke his left hand in early June. And yes, I did mention Desmond Jennings, but well before he was called up from the minors. Thanks Rays, for being so frustratingly unpredictable.

OK, let's get started.

The Phil Lombardi Award (best waiver wire catcher)

J.P. Arencibia is fourth among fantasy catchers in home runs and tied for third in RBI, but I'm going with Alex Avila since his strong season really came out of nowhere. After hitting .228 with seven homers and a .656 OPS last season, the 24-year-old backstop is batting .298/.390/.517 with 19 home runs, 77 RBI and a .907 OPS in 2011. He should be a top-five catcher on draft day next season.

The Roberto Petagine Award (best waiver wire first baseman)

Lance Berkman might be the biggest surprise among those who qualify at first base, but he was owned in most leagues even at the beginning of the season. That's why I'm giving this award to Mark Trumbo. The 25-year-old has filled in admirably for the injured Kendrys Morales, leading all major league rookies with 29 homers and 87 RBI.

The Jason Hardtke Award (best waiver wire second baseman)

Ryan Roberts was another one I missed out on, but I don't feel so bad since he's been pretty underwhelming in September. With that in mind, I'll give this award to Danny Espinosa. We knew he wouldn't post a high batting average, but the 24-year-old ranks fourth among fantasy second baseman with 21 homers and 10th with 64 RBI. He has also stolen 14 stolen bases and leads NL rookies in walks. Good enough for me. I think he'll be on the fringe of the top-10 options at second base on draft day next season.

The Al Pedrique Award (best waiver wire shortstop)

This was a pretty easy call. And no, I'm not talking about Asdrubal Cabrera, who was already owned in most leagues at the start of April. Two trips to the disabled list have limited him to just 123 games this season, but J.J. Hardy ranks second among major league shortstop with 28 homers and fourth with 75 RBI. He won't be able to shake the injure-prone tag, but should be in the 5-10 range among fantasy shortstops next season.

The Junior Noboa Award (best waiver wire third baseman)

We have seen awful production from third base this season, so I'll cheat here and use Alex Gordon. The 2005 first-round pick has enjoyed a breakout season in 2011, batting .303/.376/.502 with 23 homers, 45 doubles, 87 RBI, 17 stolen bases and an .879 OPS over 688 plate appearances. When people give examples of post-hype success stories from now on, Gordon's name should be mentioned prominently. He will lose his third base eligibility in 2012, which hurts somewhat, but he does enough to be a top 15-20 outfielder moving forward.

The Wayne Housie Award (best waiver wire outfielder)

Since I put Alex Gordon at third base, this was a pretty easy choice. Though he got off to a bit of a slow start, Mike Morse has been a revelation this season. After showing signs of a breakout in limited duty last year, the 29-year-old is batting .305/.362/.537 with 27 homers, 86 RBI and an .899 OPS. He'll likely play left field next season with Adam LaRoche slated to return from shoulder surgery, but he'll still have his eligibility at first base.

Some others that got my attention this season? Cameron Maybin (39 extra-base hits, 38 stolen bases, 80 runs scored), Josh Willingham (career-highs with 27 homers and 92 RBI), Dexter Fowler (34 extra-base hits, nine stolen bases and a .900 OPS since the All-Star break), Peter Bourjos (48 extra-base hits, 72 runs scored, 22 stolen bases) and Coco Crisp (third in majors with 42 stolen bases).

The Brett Hinchcliffe Award (best waiver wire SP)

Plenty to choose from here, but I'll give this one to Johnny Cueto. Though he only logged 156 innings this season, the 25-year-old right-hander posted a career-best 2.31 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. He allowed more than three earned runs in just two of his 24 starts. That being said, if you rely on him as a fantasy ace in 2012, you will probably be disappointed.

Some others that were mentioned in this space (some of them more than once) include Doug Fister, John Danks, R.A. Dickey, Michael Pineda, Scott Baker and Brandon Beachy.

Javier Vazquez gets knocked down a few pegs due to a his poor first half, but he has posted a ridiculous 2.16 ERA and 87/16 K/BB ratio in 87 1/3 innings over 13 starts since I mentioned him here on July 14.

The Edwin Almonte Award (best waiver wire RP)

It wasn't too long ago that I thought I would have to choose between Sergio Santos and Fernando Salas, but it appears Jordan Walden is the last-man standing. The rookie right-hander took over the ninth-inning gig for the Angels in early-April and hasn't looked looked back, posting a 2.41 ERA, 31 saves and a 63/23 K/BB ratio over 56 innings.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Early 2012 starting pitcher ranks

By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com


It was the "Year of the Pitcher, Part II."
Major League Baseball continued to gravitate toward pitching in 2011, more so, in fact, than ever before. The game's 3.93 ERA in 2011 (through the games of Sept. 21) was noticeably lower than its 4.08 ERA of 2010 -- that year also called the "Year of the Pitcher" -- and in fact is its lowest number since 1992 (3.75).

The ever-shifting baseball landscape has spawned countless debates about the worth of pitchers in fantasy. Are you among those who believe that, as the tides turn toward pitchers, you should follow suit and shift more of your investment to pitching? Or are you of the mind that increased richness in pitching means more bargain-bin candidates to bolster the patchwork-pitching strategy, thereby detracting from the overall value of the game's elite?
There are valid points on both sides, but one thing has become clear: Make sure you add more "fine teeth" to your comb, because success on the pitching side has become all the more critical in this "Era of the Pitcher," a time when workloads have come under careful scrutiny, and advanced statistics have given us an edge on evaluating pitchers that was never present before.
In this final 2011 edition of "60 Feet 6 Inches," what better topic than to help get you started on your 2012 planning? As with "Relief Efforts" and "Hit Parade" before it, today's edition provides preliminary rankings for next season and next season alone. Player value encompasses standard ESPN rules: rotisserie 5x5 scoring, traditional rosters.
In addition, let's make some early predictions on some expected 2012 trends, some of the same ones discussed in "Hit Parade," with a few new wrinkles:

Questions


Three pitchers who cracked my top 50 for 2012 finished this season prematurely -- or, in one case, at least appears done for the year -- due to injuries. In order of ranking, here are their prognoses:


Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves: While there is a chance he might return to the Braves in time to pitch in the postseason, you can be sure they won't risk anything if he experiences a flare-up of the shoulder injury that first landed him on the disabled list in June, then returned him there last month. His keeper-league -- and prospective 2012 -- owners would love to see him make a few October outings. He'll enter next season facing more questions if he doesn't, especially considering the risky long-term nature of shoulder issues. Hanson's upside when healthy, however, is immense. Consider this: Over a 33-start span between the 2010 and 2011 All-Star breaks, he had 22 quality starts, a 2.47 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 7.87 strikeouts-per-nine-innings ratio. The Braves might be more cautious with him in 2012, considering he'll still be 25 years old and coming off a season of only 130 innings pitched, but his top-10 upside remains apparent.
TOP 75 STARTING PITCHERS FOR 2012

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Rnk </CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom">Player, Team <CENTER></CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>2011
Player
Rater </CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Justin Verlander, DET </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>2 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Roy Halladay, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Cliff Lee, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Clayton Kershaw, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Tim Lincecum, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>12 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Felix Hernandez, SEA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>16 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jered Weaver, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">CC Sabathia, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Cole Hamels, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>10 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">David Price, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>17 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>11 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Dan Haren, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>10 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>12 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jon Lester, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>21 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Cain, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>14 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>14 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Zack Greinke, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>24 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>15 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Yovani Gallardo, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>20 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>16 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ian Kennedy, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>17 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">James Shields, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>18 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Tommy Hanson, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>41 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>19 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Madison Bumgarner, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>27 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>20 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ricky Romero, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>15 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>21 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Daniel Hudson, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>23 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>22 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Josh Beckett, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>23 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jordan Zimmermann, WAS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>38 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>24 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Michael Pineda, SEA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>30 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>25 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Johnny Cueto, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>25 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>26 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mat Latos, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>40 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>27 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">C.J. Wilson, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>28 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jeremy Hellickson, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>26 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>29 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Stephen Strasburg, WAS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>150 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>30 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Shaun Marcum, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>19 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>31 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brandon Beachy, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>53 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>32 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Anibal Sanchez, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>45 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>33 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Tim Hudson, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>18 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>34 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Gio Gonzalez, OAK </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>36 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>35 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ervin Santana, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>28 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>36 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Garza, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>50 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>37 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Chris Carpenter, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>48 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>38 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Max Scherzer, DET </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>71 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>39 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Adam Wainwright, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>-- </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>40 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">John Danks, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>107 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>41 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ubaldo Jimenez, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>87 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>42 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Wandy Rodriguez, HOU </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>51 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>43 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jhoulys Chacin, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>61 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>44 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Josh Johnson, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>72 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>45 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Justin Masterson, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>29 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>46 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Cory Luebke, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>34 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>47 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ryan Vogelsong, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>32 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>48 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Doug Fister, DET </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>22 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>49 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Hiroki Kuroda, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>31 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>50 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jaime Garcia, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>58 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>51 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Trevor Cahill, OAK </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>103 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>52 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Derek Holland, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>57 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>53 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jair Jurrjens, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>37 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>54 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Roy Oswalt, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>97 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>55 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Moore, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>231 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>56 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Chad Billingsley, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>96 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>57 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Alexi Ogando, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>33 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>58 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Colby Lewis, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>64 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>59 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ricky Nolasco, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>95 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>60 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ivan Nova, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>62 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>61 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Gavin Floyd, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>63 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>62 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brandon Morrow, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>81 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>63 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ryan Dempster, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>98 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>64 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Bud Norris, HOU </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>73 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>65 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Vance Worley, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>39 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>66 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Zach Britton, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>113 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>67 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Phil Hughes, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>252 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>68 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Clay Buchholz, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>101 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>69 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ted Lilly, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>65 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>70 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Julio Teheran, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>241 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>71 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jeff Niemann, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>69 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>72 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Edwin Jackson, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>79 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>73 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Scott Baker, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>54 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>74 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jonathan Sanchez, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>140 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>75 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Drew Pomeranz, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>170 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals: So far, nary a whisper of any problems with his rehabilitation from Feb. 28 Tommy John surgery. In fact, things have gone so well that all indications are that the Cardinals will pick up the two-year, $21 million option on his contract this winter, despite his not having thrown a single pitch in a competitive game this season. That decision might have a huge bearing on Wainwright's fantasy outlook; if the Cardinals are confident in him, then we should follow suit. The track record of pitchers returning from the surgery is also encouraging, as so many in the past have recaptured peak form, if not immediately thereafter then a few seasons down the road. But here's the primary reason Wainwright earned only a No. 39 ranking, quite a bit lower than his No. 2 ranking among starting pitchers on the 2010 Player Rater: Since the one-year anniversary of his surgery comes at the beginning of the 2012 exhibition season, Wainwright might be a candidate for a DL stint to open the regular season, and it's possible that he won't immediately return to must-start status once activated. This is a pitcher who might not be his true self until June 1, so understand that if you pick him, you'll need to exercise patience.
Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins: I'm much, much more concerned about Johnson's injury than either of the two pitchers mentioned above, but at the same time, if I knew all three of these pitchers would be 100 percent healthy for the entire 2012 season, there's no question I'd take Johnson first. Heck, he'd probably be a top-10 pitcher in these rankings, in that event. Consider this: Among pitchers with at least 400 innings pitched since the beginning of 2009, Johnson's 2.64 ERA ranks fourth and his 1.11 WHIP seventh, and the Marlins might very well open their wallets this winter to bolster their lineup as they move into their new digs. But Johnson has a Tommy John surgery on his résumé, plus this shoulder problem that cost him the final four-plus months of 2011. There might not be more of a boom-or-bust candidate in all of baseball entering next season.

Unranked value picks


Extending the rankings 75 starting pitchers deep greatly reduces the number of "sleeper" candidates, considering three of my favorites for 2012, Matt Moore, Julio Teheran and Drew Pomeranz, already made the cut. But among the pitchers who "just missed," here are three I'll be monitoring closely this winter:
James McDonald, Pittsburgh Pirates: He came close to the top 75; ultimately, the 1.48 WHIP was what kept him beneath the cut. That said, the Pirates demonstrated this season their potential to take another step forward in 2012, meaning the prospect of more run support for McDonald, who has made some advances during the second half of 2011 despite the team having crumbled around him. Since the All-Star break, McDonald's walk rate is 3.56 per nine, and he has averaged 5.69 innings per start despite the Pirates' having not allowed him to throw more than 99 pitches in a single outing. The problem is the home runs: He has allowed 24 this season, or 1.30 per nine innings. Lowering that homer rate is the key to McDonald's breaking out in 2012.
Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves: The Braves have a deep, rich rotation, and for that reason it's difficult to completely invest in Minor, though I'm confident he'll earn a rotation slot to begin the 2012 season. Since his recall in August, he has a 4.03 ERA and 9.27 K's-per-nine ratio, numbers that look better if you consider that the Braves have been conservative to McDonald-like levels with his pitch counts; Minor hasn't thrown more than 99 pitches in a single outing and has averaged 92.8 per start. That Minor has averaged only 2.62 walks per nine during that span is also a plus. Control has been the big question with him in the past, as that number tended to be closer to 3.0 in previous stages of his professional career. Now 23, Minor, Hanson and Teheran give the Braves three excellent, front-of-the-rotation arms for the next decade, with all three playing bigger roles in 2012.
Luke Hochevar, Kansas City Royals: It sure has taken awhile for this No. 1 overall pick in the 2006 draft to realize his potential, and looking at his lifetime 5.29 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, it's not difficult to imagine fantasy owners at large completely skipping him over in the spring. Hochevar's cumulative 4.68 ERA, plus the fact that he pitches for the Royals, a team that has long been ignored in fantasy, works against him, but look closer. The Royals have an up-and-coming offense, likely to finish in the top 10 in baseball in runs, and Hochevar himself has finished the year on a high note, winning six of 12 starts with a 3.52 ERA and 1.13 WHIP after the All-Star break, during a span in which his schedule was not the easiest. With continued progress in the spring, he might warrant a late-round pick, albeit more so in AL-only leagues than mixed. Regardless, Hochevar should not be ignored.

Hot stove impact


There's one pressing question when it comes to this winter's free-agent class, and it's whether the top name on the list, CC Sabathia, will opt out of the final four years and $92 million remaining of his contract with the New York Yankees. If he does, that puts a bona fide ace on the market, giving us two, depending upon your opinion of the No. 2 name on this list. Let's go pitcher-by-pitcher in order of Player Rater ranking, and take a look at potential free-agent ramifications:

CC Sabathia, Yankees: Even if he opts out, chances are he'll only do so in order to get more years at similar money to remain with the Yankees, perhaps another seven years at $161 million, a move not unlike Alex Rodriguez's following his 2007 MVP season. But what if there's another suitor? The advantages the Yankees provide a pitcher in fantasy are run support -- only one team has averaged more than their 5.34 runs per game this season -- and a bullpen headed by the most reliable closer in baseball history in Mariano Rivera. That makes Sabathia one of the few "safe" 20-win candidates, which he might not be with a lesser team, and it's not assured that his ratios would drop away from homer-happy Yankee Stadium. After all, he's 26-7 with a 3.08 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 0.65 homers allowed per nine innings in 47 career starts there, but 33-16 with a 3.27 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 0.75 homers per nine in 54 road starts as a Yankee. Chances are, if he leaves New York, the net result would be the same stats but two fewer wins, and that's still going to be a clear top-10 starting pitcher. www.rapsports.com
C.J. Wilson, Texas Rangers: If Sabathia stays put, Wilson moves to the head of the free-agent class, and in spite of his widely criticized 2010 workload, he has actually been more effective this year than last. He has a lower ERA (2.97 in 2011, 3.35 in 2010), WHIP (1.18, down from 1.25) and walk rate (2.93, down from 4.10), and a higher strikeout rate (8.38, up from 7.50) and innings-per-start average (6.71, up from 6.18). Wilson is going to command the big bucks, and if it's with another team, the ballpark factor, while irrelevant with Sabathia, does have an impact on Wilson. He has a 3.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 0.66 homers-per-nine ratio in 35 home starts since the beginning of last season, compared to 2.59-1.17-0.43 numbers in 31 starts on the road. Of course, the Rangers support him as well as anyone, so the net result, if he does leave, might be moot. Bottom line: Wilson should remain a top-20 starter.
Hiroki Kuroda, Los Angeles Dodgers: He'll he 37 by next Opening Day, so maybe annual one-year deals might be the norm for the remainder of his career. We'd sure love to see him remain in Los Angeles, however, and preferably in one of those three pitching-friendly venues in the National League West. He has a 3.28 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 69 combined starts at Dodger Stadium, AT&T Park and Petco Park, compared to 3.84 and 1.27 in 44 games everywhere else. Something else to consider: He has a 4.33 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 1.18 homers-per-nine ratio in 11 career starts against American League teams, compared to 3.39-1.20-0.77 against NL foes. Where he lands will impact his 2012 draft appeal.
Javier Vazquez, Florida Marlins: The question here is, which Javier Vazquez is an interested team getting: the one who had 11 quality starts in 44 tries, a 5.29 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and whose fastball averaged 88.9 mph from the beginning of 2010 through the 2011 All-Star break … or the one who has 12 quality starts in 13 tries, a 2.16 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and a fastball averaging 91.2 mph since the All-Star break? Though the numbers suggest otherwise, it's difficult to imagine Vazquez having found some sort of miracle cure for his lost velocity during a three-day break, not at the age of 35. Unless he's throwing exactly as hard next spring, and for a team in a pitching-friendly venue, he's due for a decline.
Bartolo Colon, New York Yankees: Talk about "miracle cures," Colon's elbow surgery, during which he had fat and bone marrow stem cells injected in his elbow and shoulder, has returned him to the realm of useful fantasy pitchers; his 2.9 WAR (wins above replacement) is his best number since his Cy Young award year of 2005. At the same time, let's not overlook that he's 38 years old, and he has a 4.52 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 14 starts since returning from his June hamstring injury. He might not be physically capable of handling much more of a workload than the one he has endured this year, and he's not going to get quite the run support if he doesn't return to the Yankees. Tread carefully.

Ah, but aren't you forgetting someone?



[+] Enlarge
mlb_u_darvish11_200.jpg
<CITE>Kirby Lee/Image of Sport/US Presswire</CITE>Yu Darvish has put up phenomenal numbers in Japan.



Why yes, yes I am. Expect a buzz to surround Japanese right-hander Yu Darvish, who, according to many reports, might be posted by his team, the Nippon Ham Fighters, this winter. Darvish is a name with whom many fantasy owners might be familiar; we've profiled him on ESPN as far back as 2008. His potential arrival in the States has been speculated upon for multiple years, and with word this summer that Toronto Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos traveled to Japan to scout the right-hander, expect such talk to only heat up in the coming weeks.
Heck, I'm on the Darvish bandwagon: I ranked him among my top 250 keepers in my midseason update, under the assumption that he would be pitching in the United States as early as the 2012 season.
Darvish's potential is immense, and his statistics in Japan show it: This season he's 16-5 with a 1.45 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 235 K's in 199 innings, and in the past five years he's a combined 74-27 with a 1.73 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 9.46 K's-per-nine ratio in 124 appearances. In four of those five years he has struck out more than 200 batters, four times his WHIP has been sub-0.90, and he has 14 shutouts combined. And remember, Japanese "aces" typically throw only 25 games, compared to the 33-35 that we've come to expect from U.S. aces. Conversely, that spawns the inevitable question about possible late-season fatigue in the U.S. game.
Darvish has generated countless comparisons to Daisuke Matsuzaka, and considering the direction in which Matsuzaka's career has headed the past three years, that might be regarded a black mark by many. But don't forget the impact "Dice-K" had in his first two seasons in the States: He won 15 games with 201 K's as a rookie in 2007, and he won 18 games with a 2.90 ERA as a sophomore in 2008. By many accounts, Darvish's potential exceeds even that of Matsuzaka's.
Plus, Darvish is only 25 years old, a year younger than Matsuzaka at the time he made the leap to the U.S.
You'll notice that Darvish didn't crack my initial top 75 for 2012, and the reason is that there has been no official word that he's headed here this winter. As most keeper leagues have rules that prevent teams from signing foreign talent before their arrival in the States, there's little purpose in ranking him yet. But if you're curious about his possible impact in the event he does arrive here before the spring: I'd rank him 30th, right behind Stephen Strasburg.

Who is 2012's "Jordan Zimmermann"?


This is both a positive and a negative, as while Zimmermann was on track to become one of 2011's greatest breakout stories entering the All-Star break -- at the time he ranked 14th in ERA (2.66) -- innings-cap concerns during his first full season back following Tommy John surgery quelled any excitement shortly thereafter. He had a 4.47 ERA in his next eight starts, pitched on more than five days' rest three times and was ultimately shut down for the season following his Aug. 28 turn, finishing with 161 1/3 innings.
With pitching usage as under-the-microscope as ever, here are my top three candidates to suffer the "Zimmerman treatment" in 2012, meaning careful management of their innings totals that might adversely impact their fantasy value:

Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals: He's coming off the same surgery that Zimmermann did, he pitches for the same team as Zimmermann, he's younger than Zimmermann (23, compared to 25), and he has thrown fewer innings in his first year back than Zimmermann did (34 1/3, compared to 70 2/3). Oh, and the Nationals already showed us during his rookie season in 2010 that they're uber-cautious about his workload. Could there be a more obvious innings-cap concern -- in any year -- than Strasburg? He'll be one of the best on a per-innings basis in 2012, but he's not going to give you more than 160 frames.

Drew Pomeranz, Colorado Rockies: That he was able to make any starts for the Rockies this year is somewhat remarkable; remember that at the time of an emergency appendectomy in mid-August, he was deemed out for the season. That limited Pomeranz's minor league innings total to 101, and he has tacked on 10 2/3 innings for the Rockies at the age of 22. He has the kind of stuff that could succeed right away, even at Coors Field, but he might not be afforded more than 160 innings.
Manny Banuelos, New York Yankees: He might not break camp with the team, but considering the state of the back end of the Yankees' rotation, Banuelos will get a long look for a spot during spring training, and his wins/strikeouts potential -- remember, the Yankees offer run support -- will make him an attractive sleeper in many drafts. But here's the problem: Banuelos has thrown just 129 2/3 innings as a 20-year-old this season, has topped 100 innings only twice in four professional seasons and, due to his command issues, tends to throw a greater number of taxing pitches over a smaller number of innings. The Yankees were cautious with Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes before him. They'll be the same way with Banuelos.
Others to monitor: Matt Moore (159 1/3 innings pitched this season at the age of 22), Brad Peacock (153 at age 23), Julio Teheran (161 1/3 at age 20), Jacob Turner (140 2/3 at age 20) and Alex White (82 2/3 at age 23).

Are 2011 innings bumps really that troublesome?


The "Verducci Effect" has been discussed at great length in the fantasy baseball community during the past decade, and while innings-pitched bumps of 40 or more do bear watching when it comes to the pitcher's following-season outlook, the truth is that few of 2010's examples actually suffered statistically in 2011.
Last season, in the final edition of "60 Feet 6 Inches," I published a section entitled "Pitchers whose 2010 innings could signal trouble," and listed 15 pitchers who endured an innings increase of at least 40 from 2009 to 2010. The three who finished highest among starting pitchers on the Player Rater in 2010, Mat Latos (13th), Jaime Garcia (40th) and Phil Hughes (46th), all finished with a lower Player Rater score in 2011 than 2010. Garcia's, however, didn't decline by a substantial amount.
Interestingly enough, those were the three pitchers for whom the debate about innings workloads rung loudest. Their teams employed obvious strategies late in the season to keep their innings totals in check.
Eight of the 15, however, improved in terms of Player Rater value this season, and five of those did so by a substantial margin: Madison Bumgarner, Jeremy Hellickson, Ian Kennedy, Justin Masterson and Ivan Nova. Kennedy and Masterson both rank among the top 20 in baseball in terms of innings pitched, Bumgarner is a virtual lock to top 200 innings, and Masterson is the only one of the quintet to have a September ERA higher than 2.18, eliminating any argument that workload increases result in late-season fatigue the following year.
Couldn't it be argued, then, that the pendulum has now swung so far to the other side that teams who excessively maintain pitchers' workloads from one season to the next actually don't do them any greater service than the teams who abuse their young arms without care for future consequences? That might be an extreme opinion, but those 2010-11 examples don't exactly fuel the theory behind the "Verducci Effect."
As innings caps remain a factor in our game, however, I'd be remiss not to publish the list of "abused" arms heading into 2012. These are the notable pitchers whose 2011 innings totals exceeded their 2010 numbers by at least 40 frames, as well as set new professional highs in the category, among those aged 25 or younger:
(Ages are as of Sept. 22)
Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals (age: 25; 2011 innings: 161 1/3; 2010 innings: 70 2/3; difference: +90 2/3; previous pro high: 106 2/3)
Derek Holland, Texas Rangers (age: 24; 2011 innings: 193; 2010 innings: 123; difference: +70; previous pro high: 150 2/3)
Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals (age: 22; 2011 innings: 147 1/3; 2010 innings: 78; difference: +69 1/3; previous pro high: 126 2/3)
Here's who could reach an increase of 40:
Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds (age: 23; 2011 innings: 175; 2010 innings: 138 1/3; difference: +36 2/3; previous pro high: 138 1/3)
Michael Pineda, Seattle Mariners (age: 22; 2011 innings: 171; 2010 innings: 139 1/3; difference: +31 2/3; previous pro high: 138 1/3)
 

hacheman@therx.com
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David Freese worth late pick in 2012
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Eric Karabell

St. Louis Cardinals third baseman David Freese hit a big three-run home run Wednesday night, his 10th of a truncated season, and knocked in five runs. Freese, hitting .293 with 54 RBIs in 90 games, hasn't been able to stay healthy as a big leaguer, but his bat looks legit. Think of Freese, a potential 20-homer option, in the late rounds next season.
Chicago White Sox third baseman Brent Morel held promise for this year but has been a season-long bust; however, his home run Wednesday was his seventh of September, generally a harbinger of future full-season power. In the first five months, Morel hit two. Morel doesn't draw walks but he also appears to have enough power to matter.
Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Brett Lawrie should top Freese, Morel and most everyone at the hot corner in 2012. On Wednesday, Edwin Encarnacion handled the position, as Lawrie's season is over due to a broken finger. Lawrie hit nine home runs and stole seven bases -- with a .953 OPS -- in 150 at-bats as a rookie. Sounds like a top-10 third baseman to us, a future Ryan Braun type. Cut him in one-year leagues and look at Encarnacion for the final week, as he has 16 home runs.
• The terrific second half for Florida Marlins right-hander Javier Vazquez continued Wednesday with seven shutout innings against Atlanta. Vazquez has allowed one run in 29 September innings, and lowered his season ERA in 11 consecutive starts. Not only is he worth using in his final outing next week, but if he chooses to pitch again in 2012, he'll be draft-worthy.
Cincinnati Reds right-hander Bronson Arroyo tossed a six-hit shutout Wednesday against the Houston Astros, winning his ninth game and outdueling Wandy Rodriguez. Arroyo entered play with the second-worst ERA among 98 qualifiers in baseball, ahead of only John Lackey, yet is owned in 31.4 percent
 

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Not Really Nunez

Rays left-hander Matt Moore dazzled in the first start of his major league career Thursday at Yankee Stadium, fanning 11 hitters and scattering four hits over five scoreless innings as Tampa Bay gained a half-game on the Red Sox in the American League Wild Card standings.

For those who have been tracking Moore’s career path, the outing likely came as no surprise.

Widely regarded as the top pitching prospect in baseball, Moore posted a 1.92 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 210/46 K/BB ratio across 155 innings between Double-A Montgomery and Triple-A Durham this season before earning a promotion to the major leagues 11 days ago. He has a high-90s fastball and superb control over his curve and change.

Moore is the American League’s version of Stephen Strasburg -- and that’s not hyperbole. The 22-year-old southpaw should open the 2012 season in the Rays’ starting rotation and needs to be considered a Top 25 overall option in keeper league rankings.

This is Friday's edition of the MLB Daily Dose...

* Here’s an odd story with implications that spread from the federal government to the fantasy baseball waiver wire. According to the Associated Press, Marlins closer Leo Nunez has been pitching under a fake identity since arriving in the United States back in 2001. His real name is Juan Carlos Oviedo, and his real age is 29 -- not 28.

Nunez was sent back to his native Dominican Republic on Thursday and placed on Major League Baseball’s restricted list. He won’t return this season, and there’s a chance he might never make it back. Steve Cishek and Edward Mujica are likely to see save opportunities in south Florida over the final handful of games remaining on the regular season schedule.

* The Astros announced Thursday that right-hander Bud Norris will not make another start this season due to biceps tendinitis in his throwing arm. It’s not a major injury, but the out-of-contention ‘Stros have no motivation to push the promising 26-year-old.

Norris took another major leap forward this year, posting a 3.77 ERA and 176/70 K/BB ratio in 186 innings for last-place Houston. If he continues to develop, he could be a reliable middle-of-the-rotation fantasy starter for many years to come. And because of his lowly win-loss record (6-11), he could be a sleeper in drafts next spring.

National Leauge Quick Hits: MVP candidate Matt Kemp told an L.A. radio station Thursday that he's hoping to sign a contract extension eventually with the Dodgers … Nationals outfielder Jayson Werth remains day-to-day with a bruised elbow … Matt Holliday (finger) took swings in an indoor batting cage Thursday and felt fine … Mets third baseman David Wright continued his recent run of offensive struggles Thursday, going 0-for-5 with three strikeouts … Stephen Strasburg will start the Nationals' season finale on Wednesday against the Marlins, giving him two more outings before the end of the year … The Cardinals signed outfielder Lance Berkman to a one-year, $12 million contract for 2012 … Chien-Ming Wang has been diagnosed with a mild case of the flu but fully expects to make his next scheduled start, Saturday against the Braves … Nationals rookie Brad Peacock held the Phillies to one hit over 5 2/3 innings Thursday in another terrific outing … Jason Motte walked three of the five batters he faced as the Cardinals blew a four-run ninth-inning lead against the Mets … Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright tossed a two-inning bullpen session Thursday as he continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery.

American League Quick Hits: The Yankees announced Thursday that CC Sabathia won't pitch again in the regular season … Asdrubal Cabrera (back) homered and drove in five runs Thursday in his return to the Indians’ starting lineup … The Mariners have shut down outfielder Casper Wells due to a mysterious head injury … Nelson Cruz (hamstring) believes he’s healthy enough to return to right field … Manny Ramirez said Thursday that he wants to continue playing baseball and is willing to serve his 100-game PED-related suspension … Kevin Gregg picked up his 21st save of the season Thursday in a victory over the Tigers … Rangers reliever Mark Lowe is likely to miss the postseason due to a Grade 2 hamstring strain … Jemile Weeks hit his first big-league homer and scored three of Oakland's runs in Thursday’s defeat of the Rangers … Mariners shortstop Brendan Ryan (neck) is not expected to return to action until Monday … Tommy Hunter (groin) expects to make his next scheduled start, Monday against the Red Sox … A’s infielder Scott Sizemore is day-to-day with shoulder tendinitis … Jason Kubel (foot) has been shut down for the rest of the season … Vladimir Guerrero told Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun that he hopes to play two or three more seasons.
 

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End Game

Another long baseball season is coming to a close, so this will be our final edition of The Week Ahead here in 2011. Games only run through Wednesday next week, so obviously there will be no two-start pitchers to sort out. Instead, since these waning days can be crucial for those who are wrapping up their fantasy playoffs, we'll list out and categorize every starter scheduled to take the mound Monday through Wednesday, while also serving up your usual match-up info and pinpointing hitters who might have an edge in the short week.

It's been a pleasure bringing you this column each Friday during the baseball season. I hope the information helped guide you along the way. Good luck to those who are still playing, and to everyone else: we'll see you next year!

Going Once...

American League

Strong Plays

Josh Beckett: @BAL (Britton)
Jon Lester: @BAL (Simon)
Ubaldo Jimenez: @DET (Scherzer)
Justin Masterson: @DET (Porcello)
Mark Buehrle: TOR (Alvarez)
Doug Fister: CLE (Gomez)
Dan Haren: TEX (Wilson)
Jered Weaver: TEX (Harrison)
CC Sabathia: @TB (Shields)
Brandon McCarthy: @SEA (Vargas)
Gio Gonzalez: @SEA (Vasquez)
Jeremy Hellickson: NYY (Hughes)
David Price: NYY (Colon)
C.J. Wilson: @LAA (Haren)

Decent Plays

Zach Britton: BOS (Beckett)
Erik Bedard: @BAL (Hunter)
Jeanmar Gomez: @DET (Fister)
Philip Humber: TOR (Morrow)
Max Scherzer: CLE (Jimenez)
Rick Porcello: CLE (Masterson)
Felipe Paulino: @MIN (Slowey)
Bruce Chen: @MIN (Pavano)
Ervin Santana: TEX (Lewis)
Carl Pavano: KC (Chen)
Phil Hughes: @TB (Hellickson)
Bartolo Colon: @TB (Price)
Trevor Cahill: @SEA (Beavan)
Jason Vargas: OAK (McCarthy)
Blake Beavan: OAK (Cahill)
Colby Lewis: @LAA (Santana)
Matt Harrison: @LAA (Weaver)
Henderson Alvarez: @CWS (Buehrle)

At Your Own Risk

Tommy Hunter: BOS (Bedard)
Alfredo Simon: BOS (Lester)
Dylan Axelrod: TOR (McGowan)
Kevin Slowey: KC (Paulino)
Anthony Vasquez: OAK (Gonzalez)
Dustin McGowan: @CWS (Axelrod)
Brandon Morrow: @CWS (Humber)

National League

Strong Plays

Daniel Hudson: LAD (Eveland)
Josh Collmenter: LAD (Lilly)
Matt Garza: @SD (Stauffer)
Anibal Sanchez: WAS (Milone)
Javier Vazquez: @WAS (Lannan)
Wandy Rodriguez: STL (Garcia)
Ted Lilly: @ARI (Collmenter)
Shaun Marcum: PIT (Morton)
Yovani Gallardo: PIT (Locke)
R.A. Dickey: CIN (Volquez)
Cliff Lee: @ATL (Delgado)
Roy Oswalt: @ATL (Lowe)
Cole Hamels: @ATL (Hudson)
Mat Latos: CHC (Wells)
Ryan Vogelsong: COL (Millwood)
Madison Bumgarner: COL (White)
Kyle Lohse: @HOU (Myers)
Jaime Garcia: @HOU (Rodriguez)

Decent Plays

Wade Miley: LAD (Kuroda)
Randall Delgado: PHI (Lee)
Tim Hudson: PHI (Hamels)
Rodrigo Lopez: @SD (LeBlanc)
Homer Bailey: @NYM (Schwinden)
Kevin Millwood: @SF (Vogelsong)
Aaron Cook: @SF (Surkamp)
Chris Volstad: WAS (Peacock)
Brett Myers: STL (Lohse)
Dana Eveland: @ARI (Hudson)
Hiroki Kuroda: @ARI (Miley)
Randy Wolf: PIT (Ohlendorf)
Chris Capuano: CIN (Arroyo)
Charlie Morton: @MIL (Marcum)
Tim Stauffer: CHC (Garza)
Wade LeBlanc: CHC (Lopez)
Eric Surkamp: COL (Pomeranz)
Jake Westbrook: @HOU (Sosa)
Tommy Milone: @FLA (Sanchez)
John Lannan: @FLA (Vazquez)

At Your Own Risk

Derek Lowe: PHI (Oswalt)
Randy Wells: @SD (Latos)
Bronson Arroyo: @NYM (Capuano)
Edinson Volquez: @NYM (Dickey)
Alex White: @SF (Bumgarner)
Henry Sosa: STL (Westbrook)
Chris Schwinden: CIN (Bailey)
Ross Ohlendorf: @MIL (Wolf)
Jeff Locke: @MIL (Gallardo)
Brad Peacock: @FLA (Volstad)
Total Games

American League

3: BAL, BOS, CWS, CLE, DET, KC, LAA, MIN, NYY, OAK, SEA, TB, TEX, TOR

National League

3: ARI, ATL, CHC, CIN, COL, FLA, HOU, LAD, MIL, NYM, PHI, PIT, SD, SF, STL, WAS

Lefty/Righty Breakdown

American League

BAL: 1 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
BOS: 2 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
CWS: 3 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
CLE: 3 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
DET: 3 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
KC: 2 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
LAA: 1 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
MIN: 2 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
NYY: 2 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
OAK: 1 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
SEA: 2 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
TB: 2 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
TEX: 3 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
TOR: 2 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP

RH hitters with good match-ups: Mark Trumbo, Howie Kendrick, Josh Willingham, Scott Sizemore

LH hitters with good match-ups: A.J. Pierzynski, Jim Thome, Alex Avila, Josh Hamilton, Mitch Moreland

National League

ARI: 1 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
ATL: 1 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
CHC: 2 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
CIN: 2 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
COL: 1 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
FLA: 1 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
HOU: 2 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
LAD: 2 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
MIL: 2 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
NYM: 3 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
PHI: 3 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
PIT: 2 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
SD: 3 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
SF: 2 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
STL: 2 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
WAS: 3 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP

RH hitters with good match-ups: Ryan Roberts, Chris Young, Chris Iannetta, Gaby Sanchez, Omar Infante

LH hitters with good match-ups: Lucas Duda, Raul Ibanez, Will Venable, Laynce Nix
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Right on the Money(ball)
On the “Money”

I was wrong! Yeah, that is what you want to read as the lead in a fantasy baseball advice and analysis column on which you have been relying all year (I hope). About what was I wrong? Well, I was asked a few weeks ago whether Moneyball has anything to do with fantasy baseball. My answer was “of course! Billy Beane is living the dream of fantasy players the world over.” It did not take long for me to see my error. Early in the screening of the movie I was privileged to attend earlier this week, Billy Beane (in the person of the incomparable Brad Pitt) said with both conviction and resignation: “It is an unfair game.” Smack! It hit me. It is not that Billy Beane is living out a fantasy leaguer’s dream, it is that fantasy leaguers are living out Billy’s dream. Unlike in the real thing where one team can spend 100+ Million while another is limited to one-third of that (a fact well emphasized both visually and through dialogue), fantasy general managers DO play on an even playing field. Each team is limited to a mythical $260 budget; no one gets a penny more or a penny less. That is Billy Beane/Brad Pitt’s dream -- equality -- a dream Billy/Brad knows is reserved for the millions of fantasy GMs out there.

Ok, I need to backtrack. I was not completely wrong. What a relief! There IS a lot that fantasy leaguers will recognize and with which they will identify while enjoying what is really a terrific film. Oh, and it is not the reliance on computers, newfangled statistics or fist pumping of the geek brotherhood. Then, what do I mean? Well, let’s start with one of Billy/Brad’s favorite sayings: “Because they are cheap!” Like the Beane character in the movie, many fantasy leaguers find themselves in situations where they have spent a majority of their budget but nevertheless must fill out their rosters. How to find the proverbial “diamond in the rough” or undervalued player to vault the team into contention is the annual conundrum that challenges fantasy leaguers and is the real joy of playing what is arguably America’s hobby. It is also what drives the Oakland GM throughout Moneyball. Neither Billy nor true fantasy baseball players take pride in being smart enough to draft Albert Pujols after 10 or so seasons of almost superhuman performance. There is no secret there. What fantasy leaguers thrive on and what makes them successful is getting the undervalued Melky or Asdrubal Cabrera cheap in the spring BEFORE their breakout.

There are of course other familiar realizations that will come to fantasy leaguers while they revel in the movie. Specifically, there is no attention paid to starting pitching. Many fantasy leaguers believe pitching is inherently too unpredictable and therefore scarce resources are better spent on hitting. The venerated League of Alternative Baseball Reality known as LABR provides a case in point this year. Doug Dennis spent his scarce resources on offense, offense, and more offense and, barring an unprecedented collapse, will take home the gold when the season ends next week. [Note that because it is a movie, the filmmakers had poetic license to ignore completely the reality thatOaklandhad three of the best young hurlers in the game in 2002 – Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson and Barry Zito but I digress]

The bottom line here is that Moneyball is a must see for any fantasy baseball player. There will be many moments of “oh yeah” or “been there” or “tried that” moments which will just be plain old fun for you.

“I Hope I Die Before I Get Old”

Sticking with entertainment for a moment because, well it is my column. You all should know the line quoted above. Of course, it is from the Who’s My Generation”. I saw Roger Daltrey belt that out last night at an unbelievable concert in which he performed Tommy soup to nuts. Of course, it is easy for Roger to say as at 67, he has the energy and power of a man half his age. He seems like he can just keep on doing this forever. It is just flat out awesome. If Roger can sing in 2011 the way he did when the song first came out 45 years ago, then maybe Mariano Rivera can do as he says and pitch until he is 50. You never know.

Back to the Fantasy Analysis

Ok, here we go – back to the nuts and bolts of why you click on this column -- a few tidbits for those still in the hunt for fantasy nirvana

Chris Parmelee: The Minnesota 1B has 3 dingers and 9 RBI in the last 7 days and gets KC pitching over the last three days of the season. He has never been a huge power hitter but if you need pop this year, it is not crazy to think a hot streak can last three more days.

James Loney: Though I have always liked the LA lefty, he has disappointed me once too often. 2011 has proven to be another bad year, with only 11 HR and 63 RBI – woeful numbers for a roto first sacker. That said, Loney is on fire now. He has 14 hits and 11 RBI over the last 7 days and gets to hit in AZ over the last three days of the season. Why not?

Rafael Soriano: He saved over 40 games last year, so he can do it. Mariano is unlikely to pitch in more than one game over the last three inTampa. Thus, if you are looking for a key save in the last three games, Sori could easily get it for you.

Chris Davis: TheBaltimore slugger has not hit for power recently, but the O’s are hot,Davis is playing everyday and therefore, there is a real chance for finding late, cheap value here. Buy.

Wade Leblanc: The SD lefty mowed down 10 last night and gets one more start Wednesday. He is not that good and it is a come down game. Be very careful.

And, not to be forgotten, Schultz says “Ever since The Week That Was starting synopsizing the week's events in Major League Baseball and prognosticating upon what it means for the week ahead, its been a tradition to end the season with the All-Schultz Awards. It is an event looked forward to by thousands of baseball fans across the country (read: my Dad). If we do a column next week, the All-Schultz lists of goats, surprise and MVPs will have its 2011 showcase. However, if this is to be the last Schultz Says for 2011, I'll simply give the All-Schultz MVP Award to Glenn Colton. (Everybody in unison - awwwww). By my estimate, this column has been around for more than a decade and over that time Glenn has given me free reign to write whatever I want in this little space, rarely exerting editorial control over its content and, to my chagrin, never fixing my spelling or grammar. (Although he did once keep me from calling Josh Hamilton, Joey Hamilton). Despite two of the major networks booting me from this column (it may only be one - I'm relatively certain NBC has no clue who I am), the long standing belief that I am Leo Nunez to his Juan Oviedo and the distinct possibility that I am chattel that may be bequeathed to Bobby if he ever turns the column over to him, Glenn has always made sure I've been a part of The Week That Was. If I ever appear ungrateful in this column, it's pretty much just an act. Thanks, my friend.”

Unless we are in ‘print next week’: See you in 2012.”

Response: Thank you! Well, I was not sure if there was going to be a post-season wrap-up, awards, “lessons learned from 2011,” column but now I know there will be and I look forward to it. In all seriousness, I have a couple of things I have to say. First, there really is a Schultz. Many of you out there tell me that I have contradicted myself when Schultz and I do not agree only to learn that I am just me and Schultz is just Schultz. In other words we are not one and the same so lets put that to bed shall we? Second, I have to do a right back at ya buddy. Schultz has been adding his unique brand of wisdom and wit to this space with little fanfare. Thank you sir! Mr. and Mrs. Schultz, you should be very proud!

Next week, a season wrap up and a column to be kept and re-read in March as you prepare for draft day 2011.
 

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