MLB Fantasy News 2011

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hacheman@therx.com
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National League Prospects
Last week I went over some of my favorite American League prospects, so now it's the National League's turn.

I'm really going out on a limb here, but I don't think this rookie class will be able to match what the National League offered fantasy owners last season. Crazy statement, I know. That being said, I like this group more than their American League counterparts.

Want more prospects? Get the Rotoworld Draft Guide. You'll find our top 100 list, as well as each organization's top 10. Of course, that's just the tip of the iceberg. You'll also get over 1,000 player projections, updated depth charts, our constantly updating ADP report and much, much more.

You won't find Brandon Belt among the six players detailed below and that's only because he's not a lock to make the Giants' Opening Day roster. Belt should still make a major impact if he's called up around Memorial Day, but I'm mostly trying to focus on players who will be an asset in fantasy leagues for the entire season.

Freddie Freeman (1B, Braves)

Some teams actually liked Freeman as a pitcher in high school, but the Braves knew what they were doing when they selected him in the second round of the 2007 First-Year Player Draft. Similar to his good buddy Jason Heyward, Freeman has quickly rocketed up the organizational ladder. The 21-year-batted .319/.378/.521 with 18 home runs, 87 RBI and an .898 OPS with Triple-A Gwinnett last season, despite being one of the youngest players in the International League. There has been some debate about where his ceiling lies in the power department, but the left-handed hitting Freeman has a short stroke and makes good contact. While Freeman is listed at 6-foot-5 and 225 pounds, he has evolved into an above average defender at first base.

Why you should care: With veterans Derrek Lee and Troy Glaus out of the way, Freeman is set to take over the first base position in Atlanta for the foreseeable future. He should be able to maintain a palatable batting average for fantasy owners, but expecting 20 homers in his rookie season is a bit of a stretch. Another thing to consider is that it's very possible he'll begin the season batting eighth for the Braves, putting a serious dent in his RBI and run-scoring opportunities. Freeman isn't going to have the immediate fantasy impact that Heyward had last season, but go ahead and pick him up in NL-only and keeper leagues.

Domonic Brown (OF, Phillies)

Brown might have the most upside of anyone in this year's rookie class. The 23-year-old outfielder batted .327 with 20 homers, 68 RBI, 17 stolen bases and a .980 OPS between Double-A Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley last season, so it's pretty clear that he has nothing left to prove against minor league hurlers. Granted, he didn't have much success in his first taste of the majors last season, but it's hard to take those numbers too seriously since he was used so infrequently by Charlie Manuel down the stretch. The 23-year-old outfielder is lean in appearance, but uses his 6-foot-5 frame and swift upper cut swing to generate plus-power. Hello, Citizens Bank Park. While most scouts agree that he's not a finished product defensively, he has good speed and a very strong arm from right field.

Why you should care: Jayson Werth bolted for a ridiculous contract with the Nationals this offseason, opening the door for Brown to take over as the regular right fielder in 2011. The Phillies aren't guaranteeing Brown anything going into spring training, but it seems unlikely they will actually go into Opening Day with a platoon of Ben Francisco and Ross Gload. The most likely scenario is that Brown begins the year on the strong side of a platoon with the right-handed hitting Francisco. Brown might not hit for a high batting average initially, but he should top double digits in homers and steals relatively easily. You probably don't need to worry about him in mixed leagues right away, but he's obviously worth monitoring.

Mike Minor (LHP, Braves)

It looked like Minor was going to lose his rookie status when the Braves called him up last August, but he quickly wore down in September and was eventually pulled from the starting rotation. The 23-year-old left-hander threw a total of 163 innings between Double-A Mississippi, Triple-A Gwinnett and the majors last season, so the fatigue was understandable given that it was his first full professional season. Remember, the Braves took Minor seventh overall in the 2009 First-Year Player Draft, so he has been on the fast track. Minor isn't a power pitcher, but he has generated 206 strikeouts over 175 innings between the minors and majors. He features three quality pitches, including fastball that sits in the low-90s, a curveball and a plus-changeup. He averaged 3.1 BB/9 over 134 1/3 minor league innings, so while not elite, his command is more than passable. The Braves have plenty of quality arms in the pipeline, but if healthy, Minor should be a rotation mainstay for a long time.

Why you should care: Minor appears to have the inside track on the final spot in the starting rotation over Brandon Beachy, Rodrigo Lopez and possibly Kenshin Kawakami. Toss out Minor's bloated 5.98 ERA with the Braves last season and you'll find that he had an impressive 43/11 K/BB ratio over 40 2/3 innings. He even set a Braves' rookie record with 12 strikeouts against the Cubs in August, breaking the previous mark held by teammate Tommy Hanson. Minor figures to have some trouble keeping the ball in the yard, but he should do enough to keep his spot in the rotation this season. He might not stick in your rotation all year in mixed leagues, but he's an obvious must-own in NL-only and keeper formats.

Aroldis Chapman (LHP, Reds)

This guy doesn't really need an introduction. After all, aside from Stephen Strasburg, Chapman has been the most-hyped pitcher on the planet over the past year. The Cuban fireballer began last season as a starting pitcher with Triple-A Louisville, but really took off once the Reds moved him to the bullpen with an eye on the stretch run. While he was sitting in the mid-90s as a starting pitcher, the southpaw was reaching 100 mph with relative ease as a reliever. Chapman even set the MLB record by throwing a 105.1 mph fastball in a game against the Padres last September. While his fastball gets most of the attention -- and rightfully so -- Chapman also has a biting slider that baffles hitters with regularity. His shaky command is his biggest weakness, but it's far less of a liability out of the bullpen.

Why you should care: The Reds don't plan to move Chapman to their starting rotation in the short-term, but he still has plenty of fantasy value. At the very least, he has the electric stuff to challenge Carlos Marmol for the strikeout lead among relief pitchers this season. That should come in handy for any fantasy owner. And don't discount the possibility that he could inherit the closer role from an increasingly vulnerable Francisco Cordero, as well. With top-tier reliever upside, Chapman is well worth owning in mixed formats.

Craig Kimbrel (RHP, Braves)

It didn't take long for Kimbrel to make major league history. The 22-year-old right-hander fanned 40 batters over his first 20 2/3 major league innings last season, giving him the highest strikeout rate (17.4 K/9) in a season among pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched. Granted, that is a very, very small sample size, but keep in mind that he averaged 14.4 K/9 over 121 appearances in the minor leagues. In short, he's legit. Kimbrel touches the mid 90s on his heater and has a plus complimentary pitch (often called a slider, a curveball or a slurve, depending upon who you talk to) to keep batters honest. Kimbrel averaged 5.7 BB/9 in the minor leagues and walked 16 batters over 20 2/3 innings with the Braves last season, so he isn't without some warts, but he projects to be a dominant late-game option for years to come.

Why you should care: Billy Wagner has went back to the old aplaca farm, leaving Kimbrel and Jonny Venters as the favorites to replace him for ninth-inning duties. Kimbrel has been considered the "closer of the future" for a while now, but new Braves skipper Fredi Gonzalez indicated this week that the young right-hander may share the closer role with Venters this season. It's possible that he's just trying to create a little competition for the inexperienced rookie, but if not, Kimbrel should still strike out enough batters to justify a roster spot in all formats.

Danny Espinosa (2B, Nationals)

We saw a little bit of what Espinosa could do down the stretch last season, but because he only had 103 at-bats as a September call-up, he'll keep his rookie status for 2011. Espinosa, who turns 24 in April, has flashed an intriguing power-speed combo in the minor leagues, including 22 homers and 25 stolen bases between Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A Syracuse last season. The young switch-hitter is overly-agressive at the plate, as evidenced by his 262/132 K/BB ratio in the minor leagues and his 30/9 K/BB ratio during his brief stay with the Nats, so he's unlikely to hit for a high batting average, at least initially. He was originally selected as a shortstop in the third round of the 2008 First-Year Player Draft, but his future likely lies at second base due to the presence of Ian Desmond. The Nats like his defense, but he has relatively little experience at the position.

Why you should care: The Nationals brought in Jerry Hairston Jr. as some insurance for their middle infield, but Espinosa should be given every chance to be the regular second baseman this season. It's fair to expect some prolonged slumps due to his contact rate, but Espinosa should contribute enough in the power and speed categories to remain relevant in most mixed leagues. He could be even more valuable depending on where he hits in Jim Riggleman's lineup. Espinosa underwent offseason surgery to remove the hook of the hamate bone from his right hand, but he is expected to be ready to go for spring training.

Others to watch in 2011:

Brandon Belt (1B, Giants), Kenley Jansen (RHP, Dodgers), Jordan Lyles (RHP, Astros), Brett Jackson (OF, Cubs), Brad Emaus (2B, Mets), Wilson Ramos (C, Nationals), Brandon Allen (OF/1B, Diamondbacks), Brandon Beachy (RHP, Braves), Cory Luebke (LHP, Padres)
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Hitters to watch in spring training
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By Eric Karabell
I can't wait for spring training. I know, I know, it gets boring in the beginning watching grown men simply play catch, but hey, at least they're on the field again. But I'd rather have that kind of catching over catching a cold jogging in the snow and sub-freezing temperatures. In a matter of days, pitchers and catchers will report, followed soon after by the hitters and, of course, fans. Heck, I'll be there for a few games as well.

From a fantasy baseball aspect, there's a lot we can learn from spring training. It's generally not about the numbers, but rather how a player looks, how healthy he appears, what the manager says about him, and opportunity plays a large role. Philadelphia Phillies outfielder John Mayberry Jr. could hit .450 this spring and still end up in the minor leagues. Happens all the time. Then again, he could also earn a starting job in right field.
Below are five hitters I will be paying close attention to this spring, because these guys have serious upside if they stay healthy and seize opportunity. Soon enough, everyone will be watching baseball again. Especially me. Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies: The range of possibilities for this rookie is vast. He could have a monster spring and win the starting job previously held by Jayson Werth, or he could struggle and be sent to the minor leagues. For now it appears most fantasy owners aren't believers; I haven't seen Brown get drafted in many leagues. But don't miss out on the potential next big thing simply because he hit .210 over 62 at-bats last season. It means little. That said, Ben Francisco's value is absolutely tied to how Brown performs, and don't laugh, but Francisco hit 15 home runs and stole 14 bases in 2009. Give him 400 at-bats and he'd probably do it again.



Dan Johnson, DH, Tampa Bay Rays: Johnson is certainly a sleeper, based on the power and patience he has shown in the past. The Rays think he can hit at least 20 home runs, and so do I. Hitting 30 home runs in 98 games for Triple-A Durham is a harbinger of future success, and he has always been able to draw walks, even in his Oakland Athletics days. Then again, Johnson could struggle this spring and, in theory, get released, with Ben Zobrist or even Johnny Damon -- wait until they see his outfield arm! -- moving to first base. Draft Johnson late in deep leagues, but watch his progress.
Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins: I generally don't like to mess with concussions, either my own or when choosing fantasy options. I think the Twins will take things very slowly with Morneau, as they should. It's not like he needs to win a job. He's an established clean-up hitter, a former MVP. He's also being passed by in drafts until he shows he's healthy enough to play. I'm not particularly concerned with how he plays, because I trust his ability, but if he does play, that's enough of a sign for me to move him up my lists.
Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians: Most people I talk to don't know how to treat this gifted, former 30-homer, 30-steal outfielder in drafts. Sizemore has played in 139 games the past two seasons combined, hitting .239. He also has hit 18 home runs and stolen 17 bases during that span. I think you'd take a 139-game season with close to 20-20 production from Sizemore, wouldn't you? He's not likely to be drafted with those possibilities in mind. Sizemore and his reconstructed knee hope to be ready for spring games in mid-March. I'm assuming he starts the season on the disabled list, but I'd invest if I thought he could flash his talent for 120-plus games. The fact is nobody knows. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston Red Sox: A year ago he was regarded as a top-20 player. Not outfielder, but player. He'll come at a large discount this season, so you better believe I want to see if he's swinging the bat well and stealing bases in early March. Unlike Brown, Johnson and Sizemore, I don't see any way Ellsbury isn't roaming center field for the Red Sox in April, but after missing all but 18 games in 2010, I do think his draft-day value will be affected by his spring numbers.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Spring Training Battles: AL
Temperatures across the U.S. jumped this weekend and are scheduled to rise rapidly over the coming days. This past Sunday I walked outside of my apartment in Nashville with shorts on for the first time since winter began. Spring is close, and along with it baseball. Pitchers and catcher are scheduled to report today, and spring training is slated to start in less than two weeks. We've finally reached the point where the term "too early" no longer applies. With that in mind, here is a look at the most important position battle each AL team is facing heading into spring training.

Angels: Catcher
Candidates: Jeff Mathis, Hank Conger, Bobby Wilson


Mathis sports a career .199 AVG over 1,079 major league plate appearances and below average defensive skills, though for some reason he's always been one of manager Mike Scioscia's favorites. With Mike Napoli out of town Mathis' main offseason competition is Hank Conger, a promising youngster with a major league ready bat but question marks surrounding his defense. Wilson is a career backup with some pop but little else.
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Predicted outcome: G.M. Tony Reagins made it clear that Conger would be given a chance to win the starting job with a strong spring, though the odds are slim. Mathis will likely open the year as the team's starter with Wilson as his backup, forcing Conger down to Triple-A. Owners outside of dynasty leagues that draft early can safely avoid the Angels' catching situation, but should keep Conger's name in the back of their mind. The rookie has the talent to make a fantasy impact, though only with a full slate of at bats. It's hard to see that happening before mid-season.

Athletics: 5th starter
Candidates: Brandon McCarthy, Rich Harden, Josh Outman, Bobby Cramer
Darkhorse: Tyson Ross


Both McCarthy and Harden were brought in during the offseason on incentive based one-year contracts. Outman was working on a breakout sophomore campaign in 2009 that saw him post a 128 ERA+ over 14 games and 12 starts, but had to undergo Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow in June and hasn't pitched in the majors since. Cramer pitched 6 seasons in the minors before earning a September call-up in 2010. Ross, who battled through injuries and rookie blues in 2010, was named by Baseball America as Oakland's top pitching prospect heading into 2011.

Predicted outcome: Harden and McCarthy chose the A's over other teams because Oakland was willing to let them compete for a rotation spot. While Harden has the better stuff, his style makes him a prime target for bullpen duty, and he's said to be open to taking on a bullpen assignment if he can't land the 5th starter gig. McCarthy heads into spring training as the favorite to win the job, and as a homerun prone pitcher he could fit nicely in the spacious Coliseum if he secures the position in spring training. Outman would prove to be the better fantasy investment if he shows no ill effects from surgery, but that's far from a sure thing. He's worth keeping an eye on considering the promise he showed pre-injury. The odds of Cramer winning the job are miniscule, and Ross is best served starting 2011 in the pen or minors. In the end McCarthy may get the first crack, but he'll be on a short leash with the depth behind him.

Blue Jays, Closer
Candidates: Octavio Dotel, Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Jason Frasor


The last time a player led the Blue Jays in saves for two consecutive seasons was between 2000-2001, with Billy Koch holding the honor. The streak will continue in 2011, as 2010 leader Kevin Gregg signed an offseason contract with the Orioles. Jays G.M. Alex Anthopoulos brought in Dotel, Rauch, and Francisco this offseason, giving the bullpen four players with at least 32 career saves to their name (the aforementioned trio and Jason Frasor). Dotel was the favorite to win the job before Francisco joined the ranks late in the offseason, though he has the worst career numbers of the group. Last year Francisco bridged the gap for Neftali Feliz, and Rauch saved 21 games for the Twins before moving to a set-up role for Matt Capps. Frasor has been a consistent bullpen arm, but has never been a closer for an entire season.

Predicted outcome: Assuming new manager John Farrell favors going with a traditional closer, spring training will be the deciding factor in determining who gets the first crack. Anthopoulos revealed that he made an agreement with John Buck regarding playing time when he signed Buck last offseason, and it remains to be seen if a similar promise was made to Dotel. Even if Dotel gets the first chance, he's far from a guarantee to end the season as the team's closer. History suggests Francisco will end up posting better numbers, and right now it wouldn't be crazy to draft him over Dotel, even if he starts the season as the set-up man.

Indians, Third Baseman
Candidates: Jayson Nix, Luis Valbuena, Jared Goedert
Darkhorse: Lonnie Chisenhall


The Indians did little this offseason to position themselves for success in 2011, signing just one player (Austin Kearns) to a major league deal. While they head into the season with a number of question marks, their biggest spring training battle will take place at third base. Jayson Nix was a below replacement level player over 78 games in 2010, but he remains the current favorite to man the hot corner come opening day. Valbuena is a light hitting utility man that is best served providing versatility off the bench. Goedert, 25, has flashed serious power in the minors but has yet to play at the major league level. Chisenhall is BA's No. 36 prospect heading into 2011 and has the skills to be the team's third baseman for the next decade, though he's never played above Double-A.

Predicted outcome: Nix is the favorite to walk away from spring training as the starter, though he could quickly be pulled in favor of Valbuena or Goedert. It's a bit of false labeling on my part calling Chisenhall a "darkhorse," as the youngster is widely expected to begin the season at Triple-A. That being said, a strong spring training could convince the Tribe to call him up sooner rather than later, potentially before the end of the season. He's still a year away from being draft worthy outside of Dynasty and Keeper leagues, but he's certainly worth monitoring during the season. Standard fantasy leaguers should stay away from the Indians' third base situation come draft day if Nix indeed wins the job, though AL-only owners in deeper leagues needing power could scoop up Goedert as a $1 flier if he does enough to supplant Nix during the spring.

Mariners, Left Fielder / Designated Hitter
Candidates: Michael Saunders, Jack Cust, Milton Bradley


Bradley is currently in the midst of legal trouble stemming from his mid-January arrest for allegedly making a threat against an unidentified female. The 32-year-old veteran is a big health concern, and at this point in his career is little more than a backup corner outfielder/ part time DH. Cust is fresh off a .834 OPS for the Athletics as their primary DH in 2010. He'll serve in that same role for the Mariners in 2011. Saunders is a former prospect that I detailed in a AL-only post hype piece.

Predicted outcome: There's a strong possibility that Saunders starts in left and Cust at DH, with Bradley as a platoon player behind both. None of the three currently projects as having anything more than marginal fantasy value given the threat of lost at bats, though Saunders could come into play in AL-only leagues if Bradley's legal woes force the M's to move on. It's not the sexiest spring training battle, but Saunders' potential as a HR/SB threat makes it one worth monitoring.

Orioles, 5th starter
Candidates: Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman


The Orioles showed a lot of fire under skipper Buck Showalter, going 34-23 to finish out the season after playing under Dave Trembley and Juan Samuel. It's not crazy to think the team could approach .500 in 2011, something they haven't accomplished since 1997. Fueling the excitement in Baltimore is the emergence of some legitimate young pitchers, two of which will battle it out in spring training for the team's final rotation spot. Arrieta made BA's top-100 prospect list the previous two seasons, and made his debut in 2010, pitching to a 4.66 ERA and 1.535 WHIP over 100 1/3 innings. Tillman was a big piece in the Erik Bedard trade and was named BA's No. 67 and No. 22 prospect in 2008 and 2009, respectively. Like Arrieta, Tillman has struggled in his brief time in the majors, posting a 5.61 ERA and 1.542 WHIP over 118 2/3 innings over the course of two seasons.

Predicted outcome: This one may never come to fruition, as there's a decent chance either Brad Bergesen or Justin Duchscherer – both slated to begin the season in the rotation – suffers an injury in spring training. Knock on wood for O's fans, both will stay healthy, leaving the No. 5 gig for the taking by either Arrieta and Tillman. Arrieta is the early favorite, as he throws four pitches and consistently sits his fastball in the 90s. Both pitchers have great minor league pedigrees that would suggest potential early season success isn't a fluke, but for now keep their names stashed as future waiver wire adds.

Rangers, Closer
Candidates: Neftali Feliz, Alexi Ogando, Mark Lowe, Darren Oliver, Arthur Rhodes


The Rangers are intent on stretching out Feliz as a starter during spring training, meaning players will be auditioning for the closer role in case the club is serious about moving their superstar into the rotation. Ogando is a converted outfielder that burst onto the scene in 2010 with a 1.128 WHIP and 1.30 ERA over 41.2 innings, all out of the pen. Lowe had a terrific 2009 in Seattle and was dealt along with Cliff Lee to Texas at the 2010 deadline. A back injury forced him to miss the remainder of the 2010 regular season. Oliver and Rhodes are veteran lefties that are still extremely effective despite their age (40 and 41, respectively).

Predicted outcome: As of now it would be surprising if Feliz moved to the pen, as the Rangers have plenty of depth to fill their final two rotation spots. If the Rangers do decide to use Feliz as a starter and go with a tradition single closer, Ogando would likely be their first choice. He's still extremely raw, but the upside is immense. Lowe would likely be the next choice if he proves to be healthy, while Rhodes and Oliver would step in if needed. Even if Feliz stays as a closer, Ogando is worth owning in leagues that use holds as one of the AL's top set-up men.

Rays, Closer
Candidates: Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta, J.P. Howell
Darkhorse: Jake McGee


Rafael Soriano, Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, and Joaquin Benoit have all moved on, leaving Tampa Bay with a bevy of bullpen question marks. Who gets the ball to end games is the biggest decision looming for Joe Maddon. Farnsworth has the most closer experience among the new-look bullpen (27 saves over 12 seasons). Howell had 17 saves in 2009, but missed all of 2010 after tearing his labrum. Peralta put up incredible numbers in 2010 but was aided by fluky outside variables. McGee is a top starter prospect that saw time in 2010 (5 innings over 8 games) out of the pen after earning a September call-up.

Predicted outcome: The Rays are planning to use a closer-by-committee approach, and one has to figure they'll open the season mixing the righty Farnsworth and the lefty McGee in the ninth. Howell, a lefty, won't be ready for opening day, and it remains to be seen if he can recapture his pre-surgery form. Peralta will start the season in a set-up role and should see his statistics quickly regress. The Rays are concerned about McGee's lack of experience in high leverage situations, not necessarily his ability. While spring training won't give them the opportunity to evaluate him in such a setting, his performance during the late innings during the first few weeks will. If he starts strong and continues to succeed as the team phases out Farnsworth, he'll be an asset for the remainder of the season.

Red Sox, Shortstop
Candidates: Marco Scutaro, Jed Lowrie, Jose Iglesias


The battle for the shortstop job in Boston figures to be one of the league's bigger storylines this spring given Boston's label as the early favorite to win the AL pennant. It's an interesting battle too, as it pits one of Theo Epstein's rare transactional mistakes against the team's former shortstop of the future. Lowrie, the latter, played well over 260 at bats in 2008, but missed a majority of 2009 due to wrist surgery and a knee ailment. His health concerns were enough to prompt the signing of Scutaro to a two-year, $12.5 million deal that offseason. Scutaro struggled in 2010, while Lowrie - who missed the start of the season due to mono - excelled to the tune of a .907 OPS and 9 HRs over 171 at bats. Iglesias could step into the lineup and win a gold glove, yet his hitting still needs to be refined.

Predicted outcome: Scutaro and Lowrie will duke it out, as the slick fielding Iglesias will likely start the season in Triple-A. Scutaro currently stands as the starter, though a motivated and healthy Lowrie could easily make a case during spring training to be on the field come opening day. This one will likely come down to Boston's willingness to admit their mistake in signing Scutaro. Should they chose to move Scutaro to the bench, Lowrie would become a great late round option in mixed leagues as a MI, given his eligibility at SS and 2B, ability to hit for average, and position in Boston's potent lineup.

Royals, Centerfielder
Candidates: Melky Cabrera, Lorenzo Cain


A majority of Cabrera's hype with the Yankees came not from consistent play but from his ability to muscle out timely hits. That being said, his awful .671 OPS with the Braves in 2010 (.045 points below his career average) came as a surprise. The Royals are banking on a rebound in 2011 after signing him to a low-risk, one-year, $1.25 million deal following his offseason release by the Braves. Cain was a mid-level prospect that became highly touted after he posted an impressive .306/.348/.415 slash line and stole 7 bases in 8 attempts as a 24-year-old rookie in 2010. The Brewers sold high during the offseason, including him as a major chip in the Zack Greinke trade.

Predicted outcome: This one will likely play out over the course of the entire spring training, though it's hard to imagine Cain not being the opening day starter. He's more talented, has the higher upside, and fits the profile of the new look Royals. If he does win the job and a full season worth of at bats, he has the potential to post 40-plus steals. He won't kill you in batting average, either, but don't expect big HR or RBI numbers. Cabrera shouldn't be drafted even if he wins the starting job.

Tigers, Set Up Man
Candidates: Joel Zumaya, Joaquin Benoit, Ryan Perry


Fantasy leaguers that use holds as a category will be paying close attention to see who emerges as the Tigers set-up man ahead of closer Jose Valverde. Joel Zumaya had his 2010 cut short after he fractured his throwing elbow in July, yet claimed to be 100% healthy and ready to go in early January. Benoit was signed to a monster three-year, $16.5 million contract this offseason after posting a solid 1.34 ERA and 75/11 K/BB ratio over 60 1/3 innings for the Rays last season. Perry was drafted in the first round in 2008 as the team's closer of the future. He made his debut in 2009 pitching in garbage time, but saw a jump in high leverage situations in 2010 and still managed to maintain solid numbers.

Predicted outcome: Zumaya may claim to be in perfect health, yet the team will want to see him go through spring training without any setbacks. If he does prove to be healthy, he'll begin the season as the favorite to pitch the 8th in front of Valverde. Benoit's 2010 was slightly fluky, yet the Tigers aren't paying him $16.5 million to pitch in blowouts. He should see some time in the 8th and could pick up a handful of wins. Perry figures to pitch the 7th and sometimes the 8th and may also tally some wins on late inning comebacks. All three pitchers have value in deep AL-only leagues that count holds, though as of now Zumaya is slated to be the primary set-up man and the best option of the trio.

Twins, 4th and 5th starter
Candidates: Brian Duensing, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey


All three candidates were expected to make the Twins rotation before the team's offseason re-signing of Carl Pavano. Duensing had an impressive 1.80 ERA in 45 innings out of the bullpen in 2010 before going 7-2 with a 3.05 ERA in 13 starts to end the season. Blackburn (pictured above) was one of baseball's biggest roller coaster rides in 2010, posting a 6.85 ERA in April, 2.65 mark in May, and 10.04 total over June and July. He was demoted late in July but ended the season with a 3.16 ERA in his final 57 innings. Slowey has a career 39-21 record with a 4.57 K/BB ratio but has been hampered by injuries and inconsistency throughout his major league tenure.

Predicted outcome: Duensing is a favorite to secure the 4th starter role, leaving Blackburn and Slowey to battle it out for the final gig in the rotation. Neither pitcher is extremely appealing draft wise, and the loser figures to find his name on the trading block. That being said, Blackburn would have some value as a spot starter during the season if he wins the job, considering his history of streakiness.

White Sox, Closer
Candidates: Matt Thornton, Chris Sale


The lefty Thornton has been a fixture in the White Sox's bullpen over the last five seasons, averaging a 3.19 ERA and 1.152 WHIP while pitching in high-pressure situations. His ERA and WHIP over the past three years are a cool 2.70 and 1.028, and he's shown time and again the ability to neutralize both lefties and righties. Sale was the Sox's first round pick in 2010 out of Florida Gulf Coast University and become the first draft pick of his class to make it to the majors, debuting on August 6th, 2010.

Predicted outcome: Ozzie Guillen intends to name a singular closer before the end of spring training, but this battle ultimately hinges on the health of Jake Peavy's shoulder. If Peavy is healthy enough to participate in spring activities and shows signs of being ready for opening day, Sale would be used in the bullpen and would be in the running to win the closer job. If not, Sale would take Peavy's spot in the rotation and Thornton would take over closer duties. Sale and Thornton are worth owning regardless of Peavy's health, yet both stand to gain a boost in value if given the closer job.

Yankees, 4th and 5th starter

Candidates: Ivan Nova, Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Sergio Mitre
Darkhorses: Andrew Brackman, Dellin Betances


Rotational depth has been the least of the Yankees' concerns in recent years, though the failed offseason courting of Cliff Lee and retirement of Andy Pettitte has left two open spots behind CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, and A.J. Burnett. Ivan Nova pitched well as a rookie in 2010 and figures to be the early favorite for the No. 4 job. Mitre was wildly inconsistent last year, while Colon and Garcia were both brought in during the offseason on minor league deals. Brackman is a former top prospect that had a bounce-back 2010 in the minors after previously suffering a rash of injuries. Betances is an impressive arm that will audition for the 5th starter job but should ultimately find himself starting the season in Triple-A.

Predicted outcome: Nova should nail down the No. 4 gig, leaving the main battle to be fought between Colon, Garcia, Mitre, and Brackman. Garcia gives up a ton of fly balls and figures to get torched in Yankee Stadium, while Colon hasn't been an effective pitcher since his 2005 Cy Young season. Both are uninspiring options and Mitre is no better, with a career 1.496 WHIP and 1.82 K/BB ratio. Brackman is a wildcard that should end up joining Betances in Triple-A. In the end it wouldn't be surprising to see the Yanks sign Kevin Millwood or make a run for Francisco Liriano, but for now consider Garcia the front runner heading into spring training. If any of the Yankees' current candidates wins the job out of camp, they remain a long shot to have it come mid-season. As of now Nova is the only one in the group with value, and even he's no more than a late-round AL-only pick.
 

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2011 Second Base Overview
I have the same top five at second base that I did last year, but the order has been jumbled pretty good:

1. Robinson Cano (3rd last year)
2. Chase Utley (1st)
3. Dustin Pedroia (5th)
4. Brandon Phillips (4th)
5. Ian Kinsler (2nd)

Last year's group was much closer together, with dollar values ranging from $30 to $26. This year, I have Cano at $32 at the top and Kinsler at $23 in fifth. The top five are followed by Brian Roberts and Dan Uggla close behind, but there's quite a decline afterwards. For that reason, I generally wouldn't recommend pursuing a second baseman in the middle rounds of mixed leagues. It's probably a better idea to go big or go cheap.

Second base Overview

Underrated


Brian Roberts (Orioles) - Mock Draft Central's recent drafts have Roberts as the 11th second baseman off the board, and I just can't agree with that. He overcame last year's back problems to hit .287/.361/.403 in 55 games down the stretch last season, and he reiterated earlier this winter that his back is fine now. Roberts was exceptionally durable prior to last season, playing in 155 games each of the previous three seasons, and he should get more help than he has in years with Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee added to Baltimore's lineup. I don't normally go around recommending 33-year-old second basemen, but Roberts looks like a great value pick at the moment.

Howie Kendrick (Angels) - It's no longer injuries holding Kendrick back, as he's managed to stay off the DL the last two years. He's been a disappointment so many years in a row now that it'd be hard to blame anyone for writing him off. However, Kendrick is still just 27, and though it looks like he's taken step backwards with the way his average has tumbled, he has added some power and he cut back on the strikeouts last year. There are other midrange second basemen capable of chipping in with a dozen homers and steals, but Kendrick is the one from the group capable of hitting .310-.320 or maybe even contending for the batting title. I think he's the best bet outside of the top seven.

Neil Walker (Pirates) - I'm not completely sold on Walker, but it seems he's being somewhat overlooked because he plays for the Pirates. He hit .296 as a rookie, and prorating his other stats from 110 to 150 games, he ends up with 16 homers, 90 RBI and 78 runs scored. As a switch-hitter, he gets most of the advantage that left-handed hitters typically possess at PNC Park, and if he's left in the third spot in the order, he'd be in a pretty comfortable situation in between Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata at the top and Pedro Alvarez batting cleanup. I have him at .279-16-78, making him my No. 15 second baseman.

Overrated

Chase Utley (Phillies) - One can hope Utley is more Jeff Kent than Ryan Sandberg, but second basemen simply don't age well as a whole. The now 32-year-old Utley missed time last season with a torn thumb ligament, and his power production declined for the third straight year. While my projection calls for him to rebound to 25 homers, I expect that he will spend some time on the DL again this season. He's still my No. 2 second baseman, but he comes in closer to Pedroia in the third spot than Cano at the top.

Rickie Weeks (Brewers) - It's mostly about the injury risk: Weeks had never topped 130 games in a season until playing in 160 last year. 2010 will probably go down as his career season, at least from a power standpoint. The one area in which he could improve this year is steals, as the Brewers figure to be more aggressive on the basepaths under Ron Roenicke than they were with Ken Macha at the helm, but it's still not worth paying the price to get him.

Dan Uggla (Braves) - Uggla has hit .287 with 23 homers in 89 career games at Turner Field, so I understand why some are more excited about him than ever. But, realistically, I just don't think he's a .280 hitter, even as his strikeout rate has come down a bit these last two years. He'll get his usual 30 homers and 90-100 RBI, but I expect his average to fall back to the .260 range, and unlike most of the other top second basemen, he has nothing to offer in steals. That's why he's No. 7 at the position on my board.

Sleepers

Gordon Beckham (White Sox) - Like Walker, Beckham makes for an intriguing MI option in mixed leagues. The 2008 first-round pick overcame a horrible start as a sophomore to hit .310/.380/.497 after the All-Star break, and it sounds like the White Sox want him hitting second again ahead of Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko. He'll probably finish with modest RBI numbers, but he's a threat to hit .280 with 18-20 homers and he could score 90 runs.

Danny Espinosa (Nationals) - I'm listing Espinosa here even though I'm not really recommending him at the moment. My guess is that Ian Desmond will hit second for the Nats, putting Espinosa in the eighth spot and minimizing the damage he'll do early on. Still, as a legitimate 20-20 threat, Espinosa has quite a bit of upside. If he does end up beating out Desmond for the No. 2 spot, I'd move him up several spots from his current No. 18 in the position rankings. He'll probably struggle to hit for average -- I have him at .242 -- but he has the power-speed combo of a top-10 second baseman.

Dustin Ackley (Mariners) - Ackley, the second overall pick in the 2009 draft, seems destined to spend the first two months of the season in the minors for financial reasons, but there isn't much else holding him back. While there's still some skepticism over whether second base will really be his long-term position, his bat appears to be major league ready. I expect that those drafting him in mixed leaguers are jumping the gun -- he's not going to stand out in any category as a rookie and playing for the Mariners will really hold him back when it comes to runs and RBI -- but he could be a $15 player in 2012.

Other thoughts

The situation in Detroit is intriguing, with Carlos Guillen set to start at second base and Will Rhymes and Scott Sizemore waiting in the wings. It's a given that Guillen will get hurt, probably early and often, and the Tigers could also use one of the youngsters at second base when Victor Martinez is catching, with Guillen shifting to DH. I'm a Sizemore fan, so he looks like the better $1 pick to me. … The Mets' situation isn't so intriguing. For all of the talk that he could be released this spring, Luis Castillo is probably still their best option at second. Brad Emaus and Justin Turner have a little more fantasy potential, but I'm skeptical anyone from the group will emerge as more than a $3-$4 player. I'd stay away. … I was looking at Cleveland's Jason Kipnis as a sleeper, but the Orlando Cabrera signing dashed his hopes of stealing away a starting job. He needs more polish defensively anyway, but there's a lot to like about his bat.
 

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2011 All New-Team Fantasy Team
2011 MLB All-New Team Fantasy Team

As pitchers and catcher get underway in camp and the 2010 offseason concludes, we take one last look at how the various trades and acquisitions will affect the fantasy landscape for the 2011 season.

While there was much more movement than the players on this list, you'll find a fantasy roster consisting of notable players at each position who have switched teams since Opening Day 2010, and should be on the radar for your 2011 draft.

Mind you, not all players in this article are top-tier options, but each player begins 2011 in a favorable position relative to last year, and carries at least modest value towards the mid-to-late rounds of your draft if you have a position of need.


Catcher No. 1: Mike Napoli (Rangers) – After getting traded to his third team this offseason, Napoli wound up in Texas, one of the most fantasy-friendly environments imaginable. However, the move may inevitably cost him overall playing time. With the Rangers having also signed veteran Yorvit Torrealba, Napoli will not only have a capable backup, he'll lose DH at bats with Michael Young forced to move to designated hitter after the Adrian Beltre signing. Should Young get moved during spring training, Napoli's value inches up along with his plate appearances.

Catcher No. 2: Russell Martin (Yankees) – Similarly to Napoli, Martin left the west coast and now calls a hitter's park home and a loaded lineup family. Although he enjoyed a promising start to his career in Los Angeles in 2006, Martin's statistical production tailed off across the board each season since his All-Star campaign in 2007. He dealt with a hip injury last season that is still lingering into spring training, but Martin should be fine by the time April rolls around, and could be an under-the-radar acquisition with loads of RBI opportunities since the ageing Jorge Posada has transitioned to a DH role in the Bronx.

First Base: Adrian Gonzalez (Red Sox) – Although the Red Sox mortgaged a chunk of their future to trade for the stud first baseman, Gonzalez provides a critical presence as the new lynchpin in Boston's offense. The former Padre had been a fantasy second-round pick as a Padre, but now that he'll play his home games in the Fenway bandbox as opposed to spacious Petco, Adrian's home run, RBI totals and OPS could spike in Beantown in 2011. Gonzalez is recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, but should be fine in time for Opening Day, and should provide mid-to-late first-round value. Don't let the lefty fall to the second round, as he could be a top-three first basemen in baseball before the season concludes.

Second Base: Dan Uggla (Braves) – Uggla might miss hitting behind Hanley Ramirez, but he won't miss desolate Sun Life Stadium, where the Marlins ranked 28th in home attendance in 2010. Playing in Florida has limited Uggla's overall exposure, and he deserves far more credibility for his body of work outside of fantasy circles. Second basemen who average 32 HRs over four seasons in an era of declining longball totals come few and far between. With the former Marlin's arrival in Atlanta, All-Star Martin Prado will move from 2B to left field, so Uggla will have an improved lineup around him, and may finally get his due as more than just a "poor man's Chase Utley."

Shortstop: Jason Bartlett (Padres) – The former Ray moves from arguably the toughest division in baseball to the weakest. Petco Park may be a pitcher's paradise, but Bartlett is more of a line drive hitter who could actually benefit from the spacious dimensions of his new home stadium. In spite of a statistically disappointing 2009, the Padres will give their offseason acquisition every opportunity to rebound, as disappointing backup Everth Cabrera may begin the season in the minors. Furthermore, San Diego maintains an aggressive philosophy on the basepaths, and ranked sixth in stolen bases in 2010. Hence, Bartlett will be given the green light often once he gets on.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre (Rangers) – Beltre is nothing if not opportunistic. The only two seasons in which he collected at least 100 RBI and a .300 batting average happened to occur during contract years in 2004 and 2010. Although we'd normally advise buyer beware after having been burned by post-contract Adrian in the past, Beltre is now situated in the middle of a powerful Rangers' lineup that rivals the 2010 Red Sox in terms of potency. It seems like Beltre has been in the league forever, but the 13-year veteran turns just 32 in April, and could post a 30-100-90-.290 clip in Arlington given his familiarity with the AL West after toiling for five years in Seattle. Even if he doesn't get traded, DH Michael Young shouldn't pose a threat to Beltre's job security, as the latter is far superior at handling the hot corner than Young, who might be headed out of town, anyways.

Middle Infielder (2B/SS): Bill Hall (Astros) – After hitting 18 home runs in just 344 at bats, Hall was given another shot at regular playing time with Houston. Although he'll don his fourth different jersey in four years when he joins the Astros in camp, Hall deserves a look as a late-round second baseman that can hit for power, and it should be noted that he dramatically improved his base stealing percentage last year. However, Hall's problem has always been getting on base and avoiding strikeouts, but he presents enough upside to be a late-round asset in deep mixed leagues with his move to a full-time role at hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park.

Corner Infielder (1B/3B): Carlos Pena (Cubs) – Similarly to Hall, Pena has a lot of holes in his swing, but his power is immense. The move to The Friendly Confines can only help his power numbers, as Tampa Bay's Tropicana Field ranked dead last in Park Factor in 2010 as opposed to Wrigley Field, which ranked third. Pena won't go from batting .196 to competing for the batting title, and he'll always be a strikeout waiting to happen, but the 32-year-old brings 40-homer potential to the middle rounds of your draft, and can offer good value if you draft enough .300 hitters to offset his lackluster average.

Outfield No. 1: Carl Crawford (Red Sox) – In an era of declining power numbers and more overall focus on speed and defense, Crawford has the skill set to be worth every cent of his $142 million contract. The former Ray posted a career high with 90 RBI in 2010, and may have an even better season batting towards in the two-hole of a top-heavy lineup in Fenway Park, a stadium much more conducive to scoring than the Trop. The 29-year-old didn't get enough credit for being the preeminent five-tool player in baseball, but now that he has a fat contract playing in the spotlight of Beantown, he'll get more publicity than ever. Crawford didn't always cost you a first-round pick, but he may now.

Outfield No. 2: Lance Berkman (Cardinals) – Berkman may not carry the same amount of pop as he did 5-10 years ago, but his down year in 2010 where he hit a career-low .248 for a listless Astros team was dismissed as a fluke. Expect a rebound from the career .296 hitter, as the 15-20 pounds he lost during the offseason in preparation for a full-time role in right field should help him to avoid late-season fatigue. Berkman should also have plenty of opportunities for run-production hitting fifth behind Albert Pujols and Matt Holiday all season.

Outfield No. 3: Jayson Werth (Nationals) – Credit to the Nationals' front office for at least showing their fans they're willing to open their wallets to land a pricey free agent bat during the offseason, but this is ridiculous Barry Zito money here. Werth, who is under contract for $126 million until he's just shy of 40 years old, will probably not approach the 36 home runs he hit in 2009 in any season as a Nats uniform, and his career K/BB rate of over 2:1 suggests that he'll never be confused for Wade Boggs from a hitting standpoint. But Werth can deliver a 25-90-80-15-.275 line if he stays healthy. Surprisingly, Nationals Park ranked 18th in Park Factor, just behind Citizens Bank Park (16th) in 2010.

Outfield No. 4: Cody Ross (San Francisco) – Considering the 2010 MLB postseason drew some of the worst television ratings in baseball history, NCLS MVP Ross might still qualify as a 2011 sleeper. The midseason trade that brought him over from Florida made him a local legend in San Francisco last October, but he may be in store for more than just a fluky playoff run. Considering his fly ball rate dropped from 46 percent in 2009 to 33 last year which explains 55-point drop in slugging percentage, an uptick in the power department isn't out of the question for the 30-year-old in 2011.

Outfield No. 5: Rajai Davis (Blue Jays) – Davis' skill set will be sorely needed in Toronto considering the Blue Jays ranked 28th in stolen bases (58) and last in steal attempts (78) in 2010. With 91 swipes against just a 148/54 K/BB ratio the last two years, Davis certainly has the wheels to strike fear into pitchers while on base, but needs to work on his approach at the plate to improve as a leadoff hitter and a run scorer. In spite of mediocre power, he's a skilled enough hitter given his .281 lifetime average, but when factoring in his elite speed, his 2010 .320 OBP was borderline atrocious. For fantasy purposes, the 30-year-old should make a fine outfield stolen base option (think Juan Pierre with a little more thump) assuming he gets consistent green lights in Toronto.

Designated Hitter: Adam Dunn (White Sox) – Dunn is the safest bet in baseball for around 40 home runs, 100 RBI, a .250 average, and zero trips to the DL. Helping the 6'6"/287 lb. behemoth to reduce risk of injury is his transition to the American League, where he'll be expected to serve as the everyday designated hitter for the White Sox. Considering Dunn's consistent track record coupled with the fact that he'll only occasionally back up Paul Konerko at first base, we think the 31-year-old could provide even more production on Chicago's South Side in a ballpark that ranked fourth in Park Factor last season while he retains 1B eligibility. One caveat: Dunn had been reluctant to move to a DH role earlier in his career despite the fact that he grows roots playing the outfield, so his sole hurdle to success as a designated hitter may be psychological.
 

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American League Sleepers
Last week we took a look at some of the juicier fantasy sleepers that populate the National League. Now it's time to do the same for the American League.

If you're looking for even more in-depth analysis of this season's fantasy risers and fallers, check out Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide. It's packed to the brim with nearly 1,000 player profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, printable cheat sheets, customizable scoring features and more. We put over 150,000 words into the thing and I can safely say that there's nothing like it on the market.

J.P. Arencibia, C, Blue Jays

It's not easy to find great power bats at catcher. Brian McCann is a force, Joe Mauer is one of the top all-around hitters in the game, and Carlos Santana is an exciting up-and-comer, but the list of power-driven catchers tails off from there. Enter Arencibia. The 25-year-old from Miami, Florida slugged 27 home runs in 126 games between Single-A and Double-A in 2008, then 21 home runs in 116 games at the Triple-A level in 2009. He topped both of those totals with an incredible 32 jacks in 104 games at Triple-A last year. The Blue Jays are ready to hand him the starting backstop gig this season and he should be ready to run with it.

Gio Gonzalez, SP, Athletics

There's a reason the A's are drawing preseason hype as a potential sleeper in the American League and it's not about the offense, though David DeJesus and Josh Willingham should prove to be nice additions. It's all about Oakland's young and promising pitching staff that showed flashes of greatness last year and should only get better with age. Dallas Braden threw a perfect game last year, Brett Anderson was fantastic when healthy, Trevor Cahill pitched to contact and made it work beautifully, but Gonzalez is the guy who deserves the most attention from fantasy buffs. He struck out 171 batters in 200.2 innings last season while tallying 15 wins. That's the line of a rock-solid No. 2 fantasy starter.

Brian Matusz, SP, Orioles

If you were to look back at lists of "sleepers" from last spring, you'd probably find Matusz mentioned in most of them. Why, then, is he being listed again here in 2011? Because he didn't completely meet the hype, and because we all know that he has the ability to here in 2011. The 24-year-old left-hander did not get off to a great start last season, posting a poor 4.77 ERA and 1.45 WHIP across his first 18 starts. But he rallied after the All-Star break with a 7-3 record, 3.63 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over his final 14 appearances. All in all, the Orioles youngster fanned 143 batters in 175.2 innings. That strikeout total should only go up in his second full season.

Mike Napoli, C, Rangers

Napoli was involved in two different trades this winter, first heading from Anaheim to Toronto for outfielder Vernon Wells, then moving from the Blue Jays to the Rangers for reliever Frank Francisco. We're kind of hoping that all of that movement will allow the 29-year-old catcher to fly under the radar in fantasy drafts this spring. He slugged 26 home runs in only 140 games last season and is capable of topping the 30-homer plateau this year while playing half of his games in the power-friendly confines of the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Surrounded by a high quality lineup, he should also see a ton of RBI opportunities.

Brandon League, RP, Mariners

Mariners closer David Aardsma underwent surgery on the left side of his hip in January and is expected to miss the first two weeks of the regular season. Our guess is that he misses even more time than that. Aardsma tried walking without crutches for the first time Wednesday at spring training and told reporters that he could only put about 30 percent of his weight down. Bring on Mr. League. The 27-year-old right-hander posted a 1.19 WHIP over 79 innings of relief last season for the Mariners and boasts a 132/48 K/BB ratio over his last 153.2 frames. He will open 2011 as Seattle's closer and could recapture the gig mid-summer if Aardsma, who is getting quite expensive in his second year of arbitration eligibility, is sent packing at the trade deadline.

Phil Coke, SP, Tigers

Looking for this year's C.J. Wilson? Coke might be your man. The Tigers acquired the left-hander last offseason in their trade with the Yankees for outfielder Curtis Granderson and are ready to give him a spot in their 2011 starting rotation. Last year, Coke was used as a setup man and registered a 3.76 ERA over 64.2 innings out of the Detroit bullpen. This year, he'll be back in the role that he played for the duration of his five-year minor league career. Coke's strikeout rates have been consistently respectable and he has drawn raves from Tigers manager Jim Leyland so far in spring camp. Topping Wilson's smooth transition will be tough, but Coke has the goods to tally a quality strikeout total and a decent ERA this season as a first-time starter in the American League Central.

Brian Roberts, 2B, Orioles

For veteran fantasy players, Roberts is a household name. He averaged 101 runs scored, 46 doubles, 12 home runs, 62 RBI and 35 stolen bases per season from 2004-2009 and was one of the first second basemen off the board in most fantasy drafts during that period. A back injury and a concussion killed that steady rate of production last season, but Roberts is entering spring training this year with a clean bill of health and he should be able to climb at least somewhat close to where he once was. The 33-year-old still managed to swipe 12 bases in 14 chances in 2010 despite starting only 58 games. His value as a base-stealing threat remains intact.

Chris Sale, SP, White Sox

The White Sox aren't completely sure yet what role Sale is going to play this season. If Jake Peavy is almost recovered from his lat surgery by Opening Day, the Pale Hose will probably stick Sale in the bullpen and give him save opportunities alongside Matt Thornton. If Peavy has a setback this spring or simply isn't making a quick enough recovery, the White Sox will ask Sale to step up and fill that void in their starting rotation. The 21-year-old lanky southpaw is being groomed as a starter in camp this spring just in case and he has the ability to post strong numbers in either role. Last year, he turned in a 1.93 ERA and 32/10 K/BB ratio over his first 23.1 major league innings as a late-season reliever.

UPDATE: White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen announced Thursday that Sale will be used in the bullpen this year. He's the favorite for saves, and probably even more valuable as a sleeper than when this article was first published.

Jake McGee, RP, Rays

Rays manager Joe Maddon has expressed a desire to use a committee approach in the ninth inning this season. It's a strategy that makes total sense, especially given the current options in the Tampa Bay bullpen and the way that bullpen was ravaged this winter by free agency. But it's doubtful that Maddon actually sticks to it. We hear every spring that a team might attack the ninth inning with a variety of pitchers, but it's usually just one guy shouldering the majority of the load when all is said and done. J.P. Howell is a reliable lefty, Kyle Farnsworth still throws gas, and Joel Peralta posted a gorgeous 2.02 ERA in 49 innings for the Nationals last season, but we're keeping our eye on the 24-year-old McGee. He was dominant at the Triple-A level in 2010 and showed no signs of nervousness when brought up to the majors in September. The lefty has crazy upside.

Jorge Posada, DH, Yankees

Yeah, you're reading this correctly. Posada, a 39-year-old veteran with 16 major league seasons in pinstripes to his name, is a fantasy sleeper entering the 2011 campaign. He's aging quickly and coming off knee surgery, but the Yankees are planning to use him primarily at designated hitter this year and that should allow him to stay healthy while tallying something close to 140 starts. He hasn't played in more than 120 games since 2007, and yet he slugged 22 home runs in 2009 and 18 home runs last season. With a fuller slate of at-bats, he might be capable of topping 25 dingers for the first time since 2003. That's a big-time total at catcher, where Posada will remain eligible for the duration of the 2011 season.
 

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Closer Report: Will Neftali Feliz start?

By Eric Karabell

I was thinking about leading this week's "Closer Report" -- a Friday spring training staple -- with the Pittsburgh Pirates naming Joel Hanrahan as their ninth-inning guy a few days ago.

Then I stopped yawning. <OFFER>While it is nice that the 105-loss Buccos are so sure of themselves mere days after pitchers and catchers reported to spring training, this is neither surprising news nor is it likely to alter the fantasy landscape. There's bigger news involving fantasy's No. 5 closer from a year ago, according to the ESPN Player Rater, and 19th pitcher overall: Neftali Feliz might return to being a starting pitcher.


We shouldn't be terribly surprised that the Rangers are saying they plan to give Feliz a shot at the rotation. After all, Feliz made 53 starts over four minor league seasons between the Atlanta Braves and Texas Rangers organizations, and was certainly successful. He was a durable, at times dominant, strikeout hurler who allowed fewer than seven hits per nine innings. Baseball America named Feliz the Rangers' top prospect heading into 2010, labeling him a future ace. Of course, Feliz ended up closing in part because the Rangers had a bigger need there; the rotation was deep with C.J. Wilson transitioning well to starting, and the bullpen lacked a back-end option when Frank Francisco struggled in April. Enter Feliz, now the rookie record-holder for saves in a season, and a fantasy hero to his owners.
Fantasy owners shouldn't overreact to this news or fear the worst in a keeper league. The Rangers intend to stretch out Feliz and his 22-year-old right arm this month, and while I don't doubt Feliz will be successful, it has been a while since he started a game. The Rangers were not able to re-sign Cliff Lee and can't predict if former Cy Young Award winner Brandon Webb will be healthy, so that's why they're giving Feliz a look. But let's face it, with Francisco having been traded to the Toronto Blue Jays for Mike Napoli, the current bullpen lacks a proven closer. On Thursday's "Baseball Tonight," ESPN The Magazine's Tim Kurkjian reported the Rangers are serious about trying Feliz as a starter, and that Alexi Ogando and Mark Lowe would compete for the closer role.
Why move Feliz to starting when he was so successful closing? Look, Joba Chamberlain should have been a starter all along. He could have been what Brandon Morrow is now, perhaps better. We'll see what the Chicago White Sox do with Chris Sale. I was pleased to read what Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram on Thursday (below), because it validates what I've been saying/writing for years, that there's little question what is more valuable from a baseball sense and fantasy sense.
  • "What I do like is you have the potential of having a No. 1-type starter," Maddux said of Feliz. "What I don't like about it: You wouldn't be having your No. 1 closer. But at the end of the day, if you are faced with that decision, would you rather have 70 innings out of your No. 1 guy or 200 innings out of your No. 1 guy? It's kind of a no-brainer."
I think Feliz can be a top starting pitcher in time. I doubt it happens this season, but fantasy owners should watch his progress. As a closer, he's a top-five guy on draft day. As a starter, he doesn't make my top 40 yet, but I'm certainly interested. Stay tuned. As for Ogando and Lowe, neither seem like tantalizing choices. Then again, who expected Feliz to rank better on the Player Rater than Joakim Soria, Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon? Ogando is also experimenting with starting this spring. He's 27 and coming off a rookie season in which he posted a nifty 1.30 ERA. Lowe missed much of 2010 because of a back injury, and went 3-12 with four saves combined in 2008 and 2009 with the Seattle Mariners, hardly showing closer stuff. Frankly, I'd recommend submariner Darren O'Day and even ancient southpaw Arthur Rhodes as the team's next non-Feliz choices, but more on that as the Feliz news develops.


As for the Pirates and Hanrahan, let's not make fun of the guy who ranked fourth among all relief pitchers in strikeouts last season. Hanrahan does have closing experience, and had a small run as Pittsburgh's closer after Octavio Dotel was traded last season. He tends to be wild, but he does pile on the whiffs, fanning 100 hitters in 69 2/3 innings, with useful peripherals. Only Carlos Marmol, Tyler Clippard and the retired Billy Wagner struck out more hitters as full-time relievers. I'd rank Hanrahan in the 20-25 range among closers; while the strikeouts are nice, there's also a decent chance either Evan Meek gets a shot to close or Hanrahan simply pitches himself out of the role. He does, after all, possess a 4.45 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over four big league seasons. More notes: In other semi-breaking but not earth-shattering bullpen news, White Sox general manager Kenny Williams announced Thursday that hard-throwing lefty Chris Sale will start the season in the bullpen. We haven't heard much from manager Ozzie Guillen, but I think Matt Thornton starts the spring -- and regular season -- as closer. … Joba Chamberlain should have been a star. Now he might not even make the Yankees after reporting to camp overweight. He's not starting, and also no longer needed for prime setup duties. Don't draft him based on name value or potential. … Tampa Bay Rays manager Joe Maddon confirmed Thursday that rookie Jacob McGee will be used in relief this season. That doesn't mean the kid will close, necessarily, but pay attention to his spring numbers, as well as what Kyle Farnsworth and Adam Russell do. … And finally, Carlos Marmol and the Chicago Cubs agreed to a three-year contract early this week, buying out a few arbitration seasons. This doesn't affect his fantasy value much for this season. Former closer Kerry Wood remains a threat, but only if Marmol really messes up.
 

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Familiar Camp Storylines
Welcome to the first installment of Rotoworld's spring training blog. This thing will really start cranking once the exhibition schedule gets underway, but with players arriving to camp this week, I figured I would make this first entry about familiar spring training storylines.

You know the drill. Maybe somebody lost 15 pounds or is planning to add a new pitch to their arsenal. These tried-and-true tidbits are easy fodder for feature stories in your local newspaper, but I've always found them as a comforting reminder that baseball isn't too far away. I'll try to make some sense out of a few notable examples below.

By the way, if you're looking for more in-depth fantasy analysis, check out Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide. You'll find close to 1,000 player profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, updated depth charts, ADP data, printable cheat sheets, customizable scoring features and more. We're pretty proud of the thing.

With that effective sales pitch out of the way, bring on the cliches!

Did you hear who lost weight?

Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Giants: Sandoval won't say exactly how much weight he has lost -- one recent report suggested he lost 38 pounds -- but it's easy to see that his offseason conditioning program has made a major difference on his formerly doughy frame. Perhaps equally encouraging, Sandoval also worked with Barry Bonds on improving his plate discipline. It would be great if he learned to take a few more walks (7.3 percent career walk rate), but if Sandoval can get anywhere close to his 2009 form, he would still be a major bargain at third base, a position which is lacking depth in all formats.

CC Sabathia, LHP, Yankees: And here's the other big weight loss story from the early days of spring training. While Yankees general manager Brian Cashman estimated that Sabathia dropped 15 pounds, the big southpaw confirmed last weekend that he actually lost 25 pounds. This doesn't necessarily mean that he'll have better results, but remember that because of his ability to opt out of his current contract following the 2011 season, he certainly has some extra motivation. Sabathia won't get as much love as Roy Halladay or Tim Lincecum on draft day, but he's just as reliable.

Did you hear who's seeing better these days?

Chris Volstad, RHP, Marlins: You might be surprised to learn that corrective eye surgery stories have been hard to come by in the early days of spring training. Volstad is one of the few. The 24-year-old right-hander underwent LASIK after going 12-9 with a 4.58 ERA over 30 starts last season. Some folks might be impressed by his 8-1 record after he returned from his demotion last season, but we're talking about a guy who has averaged 5.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 since the start of the 2009 season. Pretty much underwhelming all the way around. I could see some slight improvement in 2011, but he's unlikely to have any value outside of NL-only formats.

Brian Roberts, 2B, Orioles: Roberts was sidelined for most of 2010 due to a lingering back issue, but don't forget that he also missed the final six games of the season after hitting himself in the helmet with a bat. The 33-year-old second baseman suffered from post-concussion symptoms and didn't get over his blurred vision and dizziness until around Christmas. Roberts remains a legitimate health risk and is less likely to be an asset on the basepaths as he ages, but he's a $20 player if he stays on the field, especially with an improved supporting cast. I like him as a sleeper.

Did you hear who bulked up this winter?

Jose Tabata, OF, Pirates: Tabata claims he worked out in the gym every day over the winter in an effort to hit more home runs. Pardon my skepticism, at least for the short term. The 22-year-old outfielder homered just four times in 441 plate appearances with the Pirates last season and slugged 29 homers over 2,088 plate appearances in the minor leagues. Double-digit home runs would be gravy, but the truth is that the former Yankee farmhand is already an undervalued commodity. He batted .299 with 19 stolen bases as a rookie last season, including a .322/.356/.429 batting line, 11 stolen bases and 49 runs scored after the All-Star break. I love him hitting No. 2 behind Andrew McCutchen.

Roger Bernadina, OF, Nationals: For me, the holy crap moment of the week was seeing Roger Bernadina's ridiculous physique at Nationals' camp. The 26-year-old outfielder said his offseason workout plan was motivated by his poor performance down the stretch last season, but let's just say that he may have went a little overboard. Seriously. Check this out.. Bernadina was a surprising source of power and speed at certain points last season, but he'll have to fend off Mike Morse and Rick Ankiel for at-bats in left field this season. Still, I'd keep him in mind in NL-only leagues.

Did you hear who plans to run more this season?

Austin Jackson, OF, Tigers: We'll take a bold prediction any time we can get it. Jackson gave us something close to one a few weeks back, saying that one of his goals for the 2011 season is to steal 40 bases. The 24-year-old outfielder stole 27 bases in 33 attempts last season and had a 78 percent success rate swiping bags in the minor leagues, so the potential is there. However, there's also reason to believe that he'll fall at least a little bit short. Jackson had a crazy high .396 batting average on balls in play last season and unless he improves his plate discipline, he just won't have the opportunity to get to 40.

Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins: I could have easily included Ramirez under the weight loss crew, but he recently told the Miami Herald that he was motivated to drop the pounds in order to "steal more bases." We'll see about that one. Ramirez still managed to steal 32 bases last season, an impressive feat considering that he batted third and battled injuries at various points during the year. His days of 50 stolen bases are almost certainly over, but fantasy owners should be just fine with that as long as he rebounds with the other counting stats.

Did you hear who is working on a new pitch?

Leo Nunez, RHP, Marlins: Nunez, who has also packed on five pounds of muscle, says he plans to mix in his slider more this season, a pitch he "perfected" during the offseason. He told the Miami Herald that he used the pitch "maybe two or three times" last session, which isn't exactly accurate -- it was more like three percent of the time, according to FanGraphs -- but the point remains that he has become more dependent on his fastball and changeup over the past two seasons. Nunez enters spring training as the favorite for saves, but despite impressive secondary numbers, he should be one of the last closers off the board in mixed leagues.

Rick Porcello, RHP, Tigers: Porcello hopes to be an "effective four-pitch pitcher" moving forward. While his sinker is still his best pitch, the 22-year-old right-hander mixed in his slider more last season. He gained confidence in the pitch after changing his grip during his brief demotion to Triple-A Toledo. By doing so, he also found it easier to throw his curveball, a pitch that was used sparingly in 2010. He hopes to change that in 2011. Porcello was markedly better after returning from the minors last season -- mostly by virtue of a more fortunate batting average on balls in play -- but unless he starts striking out more batters, he's unlikely to be worth more than a late-round flier in mixed leagues.

Did you hear who changed their mechanics?

Ian Stewart, 3B, Rockies: In an effort to help Stewart extend his arms and cut down on strikeouts, new Rockies hitting coach Carney Lansford has backed him 12 inches further away from home plate. That's right, an entire foot. The whole idea is that Stewart will be able to pull pitches on the inside corner and go the other way with pitches on the outside corner. We know Stewart has legitimate power potential, but the additions of Ty Wigginton and Jose Lopez give him less margin for error this season.

Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees: Coming off the worst season of his career, Jeter has been working with Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long in an effort to eliminate his trademark stride. It's not unusual for players to shorten or eliminate their stride as they get older in order to get the bat going more quickly. You might remember that Paul Molitor found success into his early 40s with a simplified approach at the plate. The Yankees and fantasy owners would obviously be thrilled if he came anything close to that.
 

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2011 Third Base Overview
I'm not a big fan of the tier concept, but there is one position that tiers up perfectly for me this year: third base. Like most everyone, I have a clear top three in Evan Longoria, Alex Rodriguez and David Wright. But I have the trio so bunched together that there's not even $1 in value separating them.

Longoria - .294/.381/.542, 31 HR, 95 R, 113 RBI, 12 SB in 561 AB
A-Rod - .283/.380/.535, 36 HR, 99 R, 112 RBI, 10 SB in 538 AB
Wright - .296/.380/.511, 27 HR, 96 R, 101 RBI, 18 SB in 595 AB

The three grade out almost exactly the same in my system.

My second tier is four players deep: Jose Bautista, Ryan Zimmerman, Kevin Youkilis (once he qualifies) and Adrian Beltre. That's followed by a rather steep drop to Michael Young, Mark Reynolds, Pedro Alvarez, Aramis Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval in tier three. After that group, which ranges from $16-$18 in my dollar rankings, no other third baseman comes in higher than $11.

Of course, there are some useful players further down. Scott Rolen and Chipper Jones will be worth using in mixed leagues while healthy, and Ian Stewart and the soon-to-be second base eligible Jose Lopez are intriguing thanks to Coors Field. Third base does seem to be short on deep sleepers this year, though. I'll touch on a couple of possibilities down below.

Third base Overview

Underrated


Jose Bautista (Blue Jays) - The guy who topped his previous career high in homers by 38 last year is underrated? Yeah, maybe. A little anyway. I wonder if Bautista might not have been better off stopping at 45 homers last year. 54 is such a silly number that it's easier to write off as a fluke. There was nothing lucky about Bautista's season, though. He has about as much pull power as anyone in baseball, and he achieved his marvelous campaign despite hitting a career-worst .233 on balls in play. My guess is that he'll hit a bit higher than last year's .260 mark and finish with 35-40 homers. I rank him above Zimmerman as the No. 4 third baseman.

Mark Reynolds (Orioles) - He was in the overrated category last year, but I certainly didn't see Reynolds hitting .198 and getting exiled out of Arizona with only two potential setup men as the return. Reynolds' always dizzying strikeout rate soared to a new high last season, but it still took some pretty awful misfortune to sink his average under the Mendoza Line. He'll have to learn a new set of pitchers in the AL, but that might not be such a bad thing, given that these pitchers won't be so familiar with his weaknesses. I'm not really expecting him to bounce back as a stolen-base threat, so he didn't make my second tier of third basemen. However, something like .230-35-90 would probably put him in the top 10 at season's end.

Pablo Sandoval (Giants) - The news is already encouraging, as early reports have Sandoval down 40 pounds from where he ended last season. The Giants were threatening to send him back to Triple-A if he failed to shape up, but it didn't figure to come to that. Maybe Sandoval will never again hit .330 with 25 homers like he did in 2009, but he doesn't need to approach those numbers to be a modest bargain based on where he's being drafted this year. I'm projecting him at .296-21-81 for the season, and if he gets off to a good start and moves back up in the order, he could easily eclipse that RBI total.

Overrated

Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals) - Zimmerman is getting taken in the second and third rounds in mixed leagues, but I have him ranked 44th overall. One issue is that, unlike the big three at third base, Zimmerman is a zero when it comes to steals. I also see him lagging a bit behind in runs and RBI. The likely Nyjer Morgan-Ian Desmond duo at the top of Washington's lineup could be one of the league's weakest one-two punches and trading Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham for Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche hardly looks like a net gain for the Nationals. Zimmerman should be rock solid, but I don't think he rivals the tier-one guys.

Adrian Beltre (Rangers) - Everyone knows what happened last time Beltre followed up a huge walk year: he went to Seattle and hit .255 with 19 homers in 2005. Coming off what ranks comfortably as the second-best season of his career, Beltre was given an $80 million deal to move to Texas. Outside of 2004 and 2010, Beltre has never hit better than .290 or slugged .500. He has an exceptional track record when it comes to durability, and he's moving to another hitter's park after playing in one for the first time with the Red Sox. Still, I think he's more a seventh-rounder in mixed leagues than someone who might go in round four or five. I have him at .280-27-98 in 586 at-bats.

Casey McGehee (Brewers) - Prince Fielder wasn't driving in anyone from the fourth spot, so McGehee was the Brewers' actual cleanup man last year and he did a bang-up job, knocking in 104 runs over the course of the season. It was certainly far more than I expected. Still, I'm far from convinced McGehee is going to last as a regular. Most of his production came against lefties last season, and he's below average defensively at third base. His average should tumble again this season, and he'll likely be a zero in runs scored while hitting ahead of Yuniesky Betancourt and Carlos Gomez. Stay away.

Sleepers

Chase Headley (Padres) - Headley was putting together a nice season in 2010 until a September collapse that saw him hit .196 with 37 strikeouts in 97 at-bats. He'll never be a big asset in runs and RBI while playing for the Padres, but he could hit .270-.280 with 15 homers and 15 steals in his age-27 season. Outside of the top dozen third baseman, I think he's the safest bet to stay healthy and put up solid numbers. Hitting behind Brad Hawpe and Ryan Ludwick isn't such a bad situation.

Edwin Encarnacion (Blue Jays) - Encarnacion just became even more of a gamble with the Jays' decision to sign Scott Podsednik, but he still needs to be the favorite for DH at-bats at the start of the season. Of the Jays' returnees, only Bautista had a higher OPS than Encarnacion's 787 mark last season. Unfortunately, Encarnacion is streaky, and given that he doesn't have any defensive value, there won't be much reason for new manager John Farrell to keep him in the lineup when he's slumping. Encarnacion, though, is a legitimate threat to hit 25-30 homers and provide $15-$20 in value at a bargain price.

David Freese (Cardinals) - Freese has been limited to half-seasons each of the last two years, and it's probably do-or-die time for him as he enters his age-28 campaign. He should come pretty cheap given the lack of power he's displayed thus far as a major leaguer, but if things break right, he might be capable of hitting .270-280 with 15-18 homers and 75 RBI. I'm not all that optimistic it will happen, which is why I rank him 15th among NL third basemen, but I think he has a higher ceiling than guys like Chris Johnson and Casey Blake.

Brent Morel (White Sox) - I'm guessing Mark Teahen will get the first crack at the job, but Morel should develop into the White Sox's long-term third baseman and it's possible he's ready now after hitting .320/.348/.503 in 306 at-bats in Triple-A last season. With his line-drive stroke, he'll probably have some .300 seasons in the majors, though he may not turn into much more than a 15-homer guy. Working in his favor is that he offers a defensive advantage over Teahen or Dayan Viciedo. It's worth keeping an eye on him.

Other thoughts

- Alvarez seems to be pretty appropriately ranked to me. I expect that he'll hit 30 homers in his first full season, but I'm projecting him for a .250 average and modest run numbers in the Pittsburgh lineup. … The Angels will probably go with Maicer Izturis ahead of Alberto Callaspo at third base on Opening Day, mostly because they think he's the best option on the squad to lead off. Given Izturis' problems staying healthy, I have both as $3 players. … I'm not expecting much at all from Marlins rookie Matt Dominguez. He's at least a year away from being ready for the majors offensively, and given his lack of power, he looks like nothing more than a $1 player to me.
 

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No Waino, No Bueno
Our MLB player news page is rocking these days with updates on minor and major injuries, the tracking of position battles, and all other things that take place in a typical spring training. It's time to elaborate on a few of the bigger stories that have trickled through since position players began arriving at camp and participating in workouts last week.

One thing before we get started: If you've got true fantasy baseball fever and want in-depth tools to dominate your league from start to finish, check out Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide. It's filled to the brim with nearly 1,000 player profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, printable cheat sheets, data on average draft position (ADP), customizable scoring features, expert mock drafts and much, much more. There's nothing better to have at your side on draft day.

What In The World Is Happening In Cardinals Camp?

Within the span of eight days, the Cardinals failed to work out a contract extension with slugger Albert Pujols, got news of the death of part-owner Andrew Baur, announced that infielder Nick Punto would be out three months because of a groin injury, and lost ace Adam Wainwright for a year-plus to Tommy John surgery.

Every team deals with setbacks. Clubs are faced with bad luck and bad news every year, and it comes in all shapes and sizes. But this recent run for the Cardinals is about as rough as it gets.

You don't replace Wainwright. He's a top five starter in the National League and he was being selected in the third round of most fantasy drafts that we've tracked this month. The tall right-hander finished second in National League Cy Young Award voting last year after registering 20 wins, a 2.42 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP and 213 strikeouts across 230.1 innings. The Cardinals are going to feel his absence throughout the 2011 season.

So, what are the fantasy implications? Where do we go from here?

Cardinals GM John Mozeliak has been telling reporters since the news first broke that internal options will be considered before the search for Waino's replacement goes outside the organization. That could lead to the rise of Lance Lynn, a 23-year-old supplemental-round selection from the 2008 MLB Amateur Draft. He has a 3.66 ERA in 339.1 career minor league innings and struck out 141 batters in 164 frames last year. The big-bodied right-hander could probably enjoy some early success in the majors under Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan.

If Lynn doesn't have the goods, the Cards may have to turn to an offseason addition Ian Snell, Miguel Batista or Brian Tallet. They might even look at converting setup man Kyle McClellan into a back-end starter.

There Are Better Ways To Celebrate The Start Of Spring Training

Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera was booked on suspicion of DUI and resisting arrest without violence last Wednesday night in Florida, just days before he was scheduled to arrive at the Tigers' spring training complex.

It was an ugly scene. When an officer told Cabrera to get into his patrol vehicle, the five-time All-Star replied, "(expletive) you." He also mocked the officer with the classic "do you know who I am?" plea.

The whole ordeal did not go over well with the Tigers' front office and Cabrera isn't scheduled to report to camp until Friday morning because he has been undergoing medical evaluation by team doctors and addiction specialists. It's likely that he will be put on some kind of treatment program that could last up to several months.

Maybe it will help. Maybe forced discipline is what Cabrera needs to get serious about behaving like a role model. We all know what he is capable of on the field, and for that he remains a top-notch fantasy first baseman.

Are The Rays Really Going To Use A Committee At Closer?

Tampa Bay's bullpen was demolished by free agency this winter. Joaquin Benoit signed a huge three-year deal with the Tigers, Rafael Soriano signed an even bigger and more ridiculous contract with the Yankees, Dan Wheeler is now with the Red Sox, and Grant Balfour has moved on to the A's. Even Randy Choate bolted town.

Now what? Where will save chances go this season in St. Petersburg, Florida?

If Rays manager Joe Maddon is to be believed, the reigning American League East champions will employ a committee approach to the ninth inning this season, shuffling a variety of names in and out of save opportunities. It hurts fantasy owners, but it really is a smart baseball strategy. Putting a label on your best reliever and saving that best reliever for the ninth inning makes very little sense. The guy, if he's that reliable, should be taking on the most dangerous situation, no matter if it arises in the ninth, eighth, seventh or even sixth inning.

More teams should try it. But few ever do. And the Rays probably won't stick with it either.

We're keeping our sights squarely on 24-year-old left-hander Jake McGee, who posted dominant numbers in relief last season at Triple-A Durham and showed no fear when he was called up to the big leagues in early September. He boasts a high-powered fastball-slider combination and told reporters earlier this week that he wants badly to be a closer this season for the Rays. He might get his wish.
 

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Cards rotation: Kyle McClellan a sleeper
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By Eric Karabell

While the St. Louis Cardinals were obviously a better team before the discouraging news that ace starting pitcher Adam Wainwright will undergo Tommy John surgery, someone likely will step up and assume the vacant rotation spot for the Redbirds. I'll be keeping a close watch on relief pitcher Kyle McClellan. The 26-year-old right-hander, like most major league relievers, started games in the minor leagues, and I don't think it's much of a stretch at all to see him make the leap. Frankly, I've been waiting for this for two seasons.

The Texas Rangers were successful in transitioning longtime reliever C.J. Wilson into a 200-inning fellow, and he was 29 years old. They might do the same this spring with defending Rookie of the Year Neftali Feliz. The Cardinals have been toying with the idea of stretching out McClellan in previous springs, and now that the organization's depth is really being tested, it's a good time to give it a try and see what happens.
I won't expound on external options the Cardinals might explore; they've been down the route of tired old veteran in the past, and while pitching coach Dave Duncan has worked wonders with some, there's only so much he can do with the likes of Jeff Suppan and Kevin Millwood. The Cardinals do have myriad internal options, though. They don't look appealing right now because none of them have been successful starters, but here are some of the names, in case you're wondering: Miguel Batista, P.J. Walters, Ian Snell, Lance Lynn, Adam Ottavino and Joaquin Andujar. OK, one of those names is not really an option. Snell has had a bit of success in the past. While the two-year run in Seattle failed, he remains a strikeout option, having mowed down 17 Indianapolis Indians in a June 2009 minor league outing. The crafty Batista won 16 games for Seattle in 2007, and he was a passable middle reliever last year in Washington. I drafted Ottavino in a dynasty league a year ago, then cut him when shoulder problems curtailed his 2010 season. The Cardinals cut him from their 40-man roster, but he's in camp, and I'd certainly call him a threat to make noise. But you wouldn't be looking his way unless it's a really deep league.


However, McClellan has a wonderful opportunity here, and it should matter for fantasy owners. The Cardinals offense wasn't struck a blow this week; they still have the league's top player in Albert Pujols, plus Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus and I think a few sleepers as well in David Freese and Lance Berkman. Put it this way: Could I see McClellan making 30 starts and winning 12-plus games, outperforming Kyle Lohse and, based on strikeout potential, perhaps even Jake Westbrook? Absolutely I could.
Even before the Wainwright news, McClellan was already on the radar for NL-only owners, since he has been one of the better "no-name" setup men in baseball over the past three seasons, averaging 68 games per season and compiling a 3.23 ERA with 64 holds. The Cardinals can find another eighth-inning guy to set up Ryan Franklin (we're talking to you, Jason Motte!). I'd like to see if McClellan can start. With a cutter that keeps left-handed hitters in check -- he held them to a .204 batting average in 2010 -- he should be able to hold his own for longer outings, even multiple times through a lineup. He has been able to improve his ground ball rates, ranking 20th among National League hurlers (minimum 75 innings) in ground ball/fly ball ratio in 2010, and his strikeout rate has been steadily around 7 per nine innings as a reliever. It would likely drop some as a starter, but give him 175 innings, and I could see 130 or so strikeouts. He has been durable, and for those concerned about him making such a quick switch from bullpen to rotation, remember that's the progression that Wainwright took. He closed in the postseason for the 2006 World Series champs, then threw 202 solid innings the very next season.
It's a bit premature to assume McClellan becomes a starter, but certainly owners must watch what happens in camp. I like the upside, and I can't really say that for the other members of the team's rotation. Let's go name by name here, ever so briefly:
Chris Carpenter: Well, I wrote the word upside. We've seen his already. I don't expect a vastly different campaign than 2010. Please don't overrate the fact that he has moved up in the rotation. That's pure folly. While aces certainly tend to face off the first week of the season, Lohse is just as likely to face Roy Halladay in June as Carpenter is.
Jaime Garcia: I have concerns here since I pay more attention to WHIP than ERA. Garcia's rates don't really match up, with a 1.31 WHIP and 2.70 ERA, and his second-half WHIP was 1.41. That season ERA should've been at least a run worse, thanks to the walks that rarely seemed to hurt him. Plus, durability is certainly in question, given his lengthy injury history. I could see a 15-win season and 160 strikeouts, but I think it comes with a 3.75 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Then also, I also could see a disabled list stint or two.
Kyle Lohse: Pass. He's certainly capable of rediscovering his 2008 form, in theory, but he's not a strikeout guy, and he hasn't been healthy. If he wasn't signed through 2012, I doubt he'd even be a Cardinal. Jake Westbrook: An extreme ground-baller of the highest magnitude, Westbrook probably overachieved a bit in his 12-start Cardinals stint after the trade. He generally allows more hits than innings, and he topped his career strikeout rate by quite a bit. This is a guy that, even in the NL, could struggle to keep his ERA under 4.50. It's not like Ryan Theriot-Skip Schumaker form a Gold Glove-caliber double play tandem (he'll miss Brendan Ryan). He needs stellar defense behind him.
 

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Under the Radar Hurlers
We all know some of the popular sleepers among starting pitchers by now, so I'm not going to waste everyone's time by going in-depth about Daniel Hudson, Jordan Zimmermann, Jeremy Hellickson, Jhoulys Chacin, Madison Bumgarner or Brandon Morrow. You should know about those guys already. Instead, I'm going to focus on some under the radar targets who might not become fantasy aces this season, but could still prove to be productive options in most formats.

With the exhibition schedule kicking off this weekend, I know you have fantasy baseball on the brain. What better place to get started than Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide? It's packed with nearly 1,000 player profiles and projections, printable cheat sheets, tiered rankings at each position, customizable scoring features, ADP (average draft position) data, expert mock drafts and so much more. Your draft will be here before you know it, so you better get prepared.

James McDonald (RHP, Pirates)

The Dodgers never took advantage of McDonald's considerable potential, but the Pirates got pretty lucky when they acquired him in the Octavio Dotel deal at the trade deadline last year. The 26-year-old right-hander was immediately moved to the starting rotation and posted a 3.52 ERA over 11 starts with the club, averaging 8.6 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 over 64 innings. McDonald is a fly ball pitcher, so he was a tad on the fortunate side last season, but PNC Park can be a pretty forgiving environment for pitchers, especially against right-handed batters. Some owners might overlook McDonald because he pitches on such an awful team, but that's exactly why I like him this season. He's a pretty solid bet for 150-160 strikeouts if he spends the entire year in the rotation.

Scott Baker (RHP, Twins)

It might look a bid odd to include Baker with these pitchers, but coming off a 4.49 ERA in 2010 and offseason elbow surgery, I expect many fantasy owners to be shy away from him. Again, this is a situation where you need to take advantage. The 29-year-old right-hander has averaged 7.1 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 during his career -- including a career-high 7.8 K/9 last season -- and will make half of his starts in an excellent pitchers park, which should play perfectly to his notorious fly ball tendencies. Be sure to track reports about his elbow during spring training, but he's one of my favorite late-round targets in mixed leagues.

Jason Hammel (RHP, Rockies)

I'm not afraid to say it. Hammel is a tease, plain and simple. He was a popular sleeper target this time last year after producing solid secondary numbers and an xFIP of 3.81 in 2009. Unfortunately, he went out and posted a disappointing 4.81 ERA over 30 starts, despite once again flashing impressive secondary numbers and finishing with an xFIP of 3.81 for the second straight year. You'd think I would have learned my lesson already, but I'm willing to take the plunge again. If he can improve with runners on base -- something that he admittedly really struggled with -- look out. If not, well, you probably didn't pay much to get him.

Tim Stauffer (RHP, Padres)

While the Padres couldn't quite hang on in the NL West last season, this former first-round pick shined down the stretch. Stauffer posted a 2.10 ERA and 22/11 K/BB ratio over six starts in September and October. The 28-year-old right-hander finished with a 1.85 ERA for the year, the lowest among MLB pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched. Of course, I wouldn't expect him to keep that up over a full season as a starting pitcher -- his xFIP of 3.74 is far more indicative of his skills -- but he has solid control, strikes out his fair share of batters and induces plenty of ground balls. He could face an innings count eventually and carries some injury risk based on his past, but I like his chances of proving profitable in PETCO Park.

Derek Holland (LHP, Rangers)

For those who have been patiently awaiting Holland's breakthrough season, this could finally be the year. Well, maybe. With Cliff Lee in Philadelphia and Brandon Webb and Scott Feldman as question marks for the early part of the season, the 24-year-old southpaw should have a clear path to a spot in the starting rotation, at the very least. Though Holland dealt with some knee and rotator cuff issues last season, he posted a 4.08 ERA and 54 strikeouts over 57 1/3 innings at the big league level. I'd like to see him improve his control and give up a few less fly balls considering his home park, but you may never see his price tag this low again.

Chris Narveson (LHP, Brewers)

Narveson doesn't exactly appear to be a promising fantasy property on the surface. He throws in the high 80s and posted a mediocre 4.99 ERA over 167 2/3 innings last season. But while others will pass, there's plenty of reason to speculate. The 29-year-old left-hander averaged 7.4 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 for the year and posted a 3.89 ERA over 14 starts after the All-Star break. If he can keep the ball in the ballpark and make some strides pitching out of the stretch -- similar to Jason Hammel -- he could be a pleasant surprise in a rotation stocked with more high-profile fantasy arms.

Bud Norris (RHP, Astros)

Sure, Norris had a pretty unremarkable 4.92 ERA and 1.48 WHIP last season, but this guy might be figuring things out. He went 11-7 with a 4.17 ERA after returning from biceps tendinitis last June. And even though his command remains his Achilles heel, he averaged 9.25 K/9 last season, higher than fantasy aces like Mat Latos, Josh Johnson, Cole Hamels and Justin Verlander. Some still wonder if he's better suited for the bullpen and he may well end up there eventually, but his ability to miss bats warrants consideration.

Carlos Carrasco (RHP, Indians)

The Indians took their sweet time giving Carrasco another shot at the big leagues last season, but he proved to be a real bright spot for the club down the stretch. Carrasco, who turns 24 in March, posted a 3.83 ERA over seven starts as a September call-up, averaging 7.7 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. Yes, this was a very limited sample size, but Carrasco produced very similar secondary numbers on the minor league level. If the former top prospect can come anywhere close to his ground ball rate from last season, he has a chance to be a fantasy asset in 2011, especially in the pitcher-friendly Progressive Field.
 

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Let the Games Begin
And…we're off!

Baseball season never truly grinds to a halt, especially around here at Rotoworld, but we finally have some actual games going on in Florida and Arizona. And that's pretty awesome.

The exhibition schedule always gives us plenty to talk about from a fantasy perspective, whether it's position battles, injuries or notable lineup decisions. That's where I come in. I'll be here every weekday until Opening Day passing along fantasy-relevant news and notes.

You'll find tons more analysis in Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide. We have nearly 1,000 player profiles and projections in there, as well as printable cheat sheets, customizable scoring features, expert mock drafts, tiered rankings at each position, ADP (average draft position) data and much, much more. Yep, we got you covered.

Beltre's Calf Confusion

We had some conflicting information regarding Adrian Beltre's calf injury over the weekend. Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com reported on Friday that Beltre would miss 10-14 days due to a Grade 1 strain of his right calf, but Jon Heyman of SI.com called that timetable "a tad optimistic" on Saturday, saying that Beltre could miss a month. However, Rangers assistant general manager Thad Levine quickly refuted Heyman's report on Sunday, telling Jeff Caplan of ESPNDallas.com that "we still feel like it's two weeks." What to believe?

As I wrote at HardballTalk on NBCSports.com over the weekend, Jimmy Rollins missed a month with a Grade 2 strain of his right calf last season, then missed another month after immediately aggravating the injury. Just because this happened to Rollins doesn't mean Beltre will suffer the same fate, but look for the Rangers to take the cautious approach with their new high-priced third baseman. As we learned with Rollins, one faulty stride could change his timetable completely. It's much too early to drop Beltre on draft boards, but this is obviously a situation that bears watching.

Kimbrel Struggles in Spring Debut

Craig Kimbrel is picking up steam in most mock drafts, but his spring debut Saturday against the Mets couldn't have gone much worse. He was only able to record one out while giving up two hits -- including a game-tying two-run homer to Fernando Martinez -- and issuing two walks. We're used to seeing the 22-year-old right-hander cooking with gas, but he was only sitting at around 90 mph on the radar gun.

The good news for fantasy owners is that Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez isn't concerned about Kimbrel's decreased velocity at this stage of the game. Kimbrel downplayed the poor performance himself, telling David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that he would "probably be a little bit more worried" if the was throwing like that towards the end of spring training. In other words, don't panic yet.

Gonzalez has been pretty clear about his intent to use Kimbrel in tandem with Jonny Venters in the ninth inning to begin the season, at least until one of them proves worthy of the primary gig. It's not the best situation for fantasy owners, but both pitchers should be owned in all formats until further notice.

Lineup Changes in Texas

We knew Rangers manager Ron Washington was up to something when he used Ian Kinsler out of leadoff spot in last Thursday's intersquad game. And so, it wasn't a huge shock when Washington announced Saturday that he plans to use Kinsler as his leadoff hitter this season, pushing Elvis Andrus to the No. 2 spot and Michael Young to sixth.

Kinsler didn't run a whole lot last season -- though injuries to his ankle and groin were likely to blame -- but this improves his stock with me. He's assured of more at-bats this way, which means the potential for increased productivity with counting stats. You have to like that.

I think the Rangers would be better served to use Andrus ninth in the order as a second leadoff man of sorts, but this decision shouldn't impact his fantasy value too much from last season. Young already isn't a lock to play every day with Mike Napoli around, so dropping him to sixth in the order only does further damage to his value. He's still a top-10 option at the third base position, but he's losing ground quickly.

McCutchen in the Middle?

New Pirates manager Clint Hurdle has used Andrew McCutchen out of the No. 3 spot in each of the team's first two spring training games. The 24-year-old outfielder began last season hitting No. 2 behind Akinori Iwamura (remember that?) and hit third for a brief stretch before being moved back into the leadoff spot for the second half of the season. It looks like Hurdle is ready to make the switch from the outset.

McCutchen was still plenty valuable last season, hitting .286 with 16 homers, 33 stolen bases and 94 runs scored, but he only drove in 56 runs over 653 plate appearances. He would almost certainly drive in more runs batting third for a full season. McCutchen should be on your radar already as one of the elite young outfielders in the game, but his fantasy value would take a modest jump if Hurdle keeps him there.
 

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Beltran Makes the Right Move
We had a full slate of 16 games on the schedule Monday, which means there's no going back now. We won't have many days without baseball games between now and the beginning of November, which I must say is pretty sweet.

I'm still feeling out how I want to structure this "blog," so feel free to get in contact with me about anything you'd like to see in future editions. We obviously have a lot of ground to cover before Opening Day.

By the way, if you're looking for more in-depth fantasy analysis, check out Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide. You'll find close to 1,000 player profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, updated depth charts, ADP data, printable cheat sheets, customizable scoring features and more. We put many sleepless nights into this thing, so check it out.

Beltran Makes the Switch

Carlos Beltran hasn't started a regular season game in right field since September 30, 2000 as a 23-year-old with the Royals. That's all about to change.

Beltran, who turns 34 in April, announced Monday that he will make the switch to right field this season. The move puts Angel Pagan, the team's best defensive outfielder, in center field and allows Beltran to put less of a burden on his surgically-repaired right knee. The switch gives Beltran -- who is in the final year of his seven-year, $119 million contract -- a chance to extend his career, but it's also just the latest indication that he may never be the same player again, at least from a fantasy perspective.

The ultimate two-way threat, Beltran has compiled 251 home runs and 246 stolen bases since the start of the 2001 campaign. Bobby Abreu and Alfonso Soriano are the only other players who have managed over 200 in both categories over the same timespan.

So where do fantasy owners go from here? It's hard to tell. Beltran is in the process of completing a running program and aims to be in the lineup as a designated hitter this weekend, but he likely won't play in right field until around March 10.

His knee remains a question mark no matter what, so it would be risky to rely on him as one of your top three outfielders in mixed leagues, especially if your draft is early this month. Frankly, his teammates Pagan and Jason Bay are better bets among fantasy outfielders.

Boston's Embarrassment of Riches

Red Sox manager Terry Francona used Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and Carl Crawford at the top of his lineup for Monday's exhibition game against the Twins. Sneak preview for the regular season? Well, maybe.

Francona told Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com that it's "an obvious possibility," but keep in mind that it's pretty easy to plug those three at the top of the lineup when Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Marco Scutaro and Jarrod Saltalamacchia aren't playing. We'll know much more about the potential composition of their lineup once everybody is on the field at the same time, hopefully in the middle of this month.

On a related note, there's been some speculation that Ellsbury could bat ninth to begin the season, but Francona said Monday that he believes the team was best with him in the leadoff spot. Ellsbury should swipe a ton of bags if he's healthy, so he has the potential to be a top-10 outfielder either way, but extra at-bats out of the leadoff spot would only enhance his value.

Prospect Watch

Monday was an eventful day for some of the game's top position prospects. Bryce Harper's much anticipated spring debut (OK, maybe that's some hyperbole) wasn't all it was cracked up to be. In fact, if you blinked or flipped the channel, you may have missed it. Last year's No.1 overall pick struck out twice on only seven pitches against the Mets. No worries. We think you'll hear from him again real soon.

I'll say this for the Royals. While their Opening Day lineup is going to be pretty sad, they are a lot of fun to track during spring training. First base prospect Eric Hosmer and third base prospect Mike Moustakas, who were ranked eighth and ninth respectively in Baseball America's Top 100 prospects last week, both homered against the Rangers on Monday. It's only a matter of when.

And then we have the prospects who could actually crack their team's Opening Day rosters.

The Phillies plan to give Domonic Brown every chance to win the starting right field job out of spring training, but he's 0-for-9 with two walks and six strikeouts over his first three Grapefruit League games. Meanwhile, Ben Francisco has hit for the cycle, driven in two runs and walked twice over his first nine plate appearances. It's still very early, but Francisco might make this a competition yet.

Giants first base prospect Brandon Belt put on quite a show Monday against the Brewers, going 3-for-5 with two doubles and four RBI. Leave it to Giants GM Brian Sabean to be the "Debbie Downer," though. He suggested after the game that the 22-year-old could use more at-bats with Triple-A Fresno. Things could still change, but it sounds like somebody is going to get the Buster Posey treatment. See you around Memorial Day, Brandon!
 

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2011 Shortstop Overview
Shortstop definitely ranks as a weaker position this year in my eyes. I have Erick Aybar ranked 12th for the second straight year, even though I've gone from projecting him to finish with a .293 average and 91 runs scored in 2010 to .274 and 77 this year. Of the 11 guys above him, only Troy Tulowitzki, Elvis Andrus (barely) and Starlin Castro are getting stronger projections than they did a year ago. Derek Jeter and Jimmy Rollins have taken the biggest dives.

There are some intriguing sleepers further down, but it's going to cost an awful lot to get a sure thing at shortstop this year.

Shortstop Overview

Underrated


Elvis Andrus (Rangers) - Andrus improved in just one fantasy category as a sophomore and that only because he was able to score more runs leading off than he did as a No. 9 hitter as a rookie. Still, I think he's pretty clearly the AL's No. 1 shortstop. He's perfectly capable of stealing 40-50 bases, and odds are that he'll regain some power after going from six homers in 2009 and none last year. I'm looking for a .280 average and maybe 100 runs scored in his new role as a No. 2 hitter. I have him at $25, well ahead of Derek Jeter at $21 and Alexei Ramirez at $20.

Starlin Castro (Cubs) - I thought Castro would be overhyped this year after making a run at the NL batting title as a rookie, but he's been the 11th shortstop off the board in Mock Draft Central leagues recently. I rate him eighth because of the likelihood that he'll hit .290, score 85-90 runs and steal 15-20 bases. He won't be an asset in the power categories, and it is possible his average will slip more than I expect. However, he's a pretty good investment for anyone unwilling to pay for one of the NL's top four shortstops.

Asdrubal Cabrera (Indians) - Cabrera is in the same boat as Castro: I think he's the best of the rest once one gets past his league's top shortstops. He's not all that close to Jeter or Alexei -- I put him at $15 in the dollar rankings -- but he does rate as the AL's No. 4 shortstop in the projections. Playing up to his potential, he hit .308 with 81 runs scored and 17 RBI in 131 games in 2009. He was injured and rather ineffective last season, but he's still just 25 and he should get more help from his teammates. I have him at .293 with nine homers and 83 runs scored in 557 at-bats.

Overrated

Derek Jeter (Yankees) - Jeter should bounce back somewhat, but I think it's pretty likely that 2009 will go down as the last great season of his career. I have him hitting .286/.358/.402, which is a lot closer to last year's .270/.340/.370 than his .334/.406/.465 line from two seasons ago. Fortunately, he's still a Yankee, so he should be very strong in runs scored and solid in RBI. But he doesn't rate a fourth- or fifth-round pick in mixed leagues and that's generally where he's going right now.

Stephen Drew (Diamondbacks) - It's largely about runs and RBI. As a Yankee, Jeter combined for 178 runs scored and RBI in his down year last season. Drew, with an OPS 100 points higher, came in at 144 in 151 games played. Now the Diamondbacks offense should get better one of these years. But Drew doesn't bat .300, he doesn't hit 20 homers and he doesn't steal more than a handful of bases. He's more valuable to Arizona than he is in fantasy leagues.

Alex Gonzalez (Braves) - Gonzalez got off to the great start with the Blue Jays last year, but he came in at .240-6-38 in 267 at-bats after the trade to the Braves. Obviously, that's a lot more along the lines of what should be expected from the career .248/.294/.402 hitter. Gonzalez will hit 15 homers and drive in about 70 runs, but he'll be a liability elsewhere. He scored just 27 runs in his 72 games with the Braves, and he stole one base all year long. I rank him 28th at shortstop.

Sleepers

Yunel Escobar (Blue Jays) - One of the game's top offensive shortstops when he hit .299/.377/.436 in 2009, Escobar fell apart last season, going 261 at-bats without a homer for the Braves before being traded to Toronto for Gonzalez. He did improve somewhat afterwards, coming in at .275 with four homers in 236 at-bats. As the likely No. 2 hitter in the Jays lineup, he offers quite a bit of upside for someone going undrafted in a lot of mixed leagues. The Jays have had a lot success igniting power strokes under hitting coach Dwayne Murphy, and it's be no surprise to see Escobar return to hitting 12-15 homers this season.

J.J. Hardy (Orioles) - Hardy has been a fantasy bust since hitting 50 homers between 2007 and '08. He spent a portion of 2009 in the minors, and he couldn't get anything going in Target Field last year after the Brewers traded him to the Twins. Maybe things will go differently in Camden Yards. Hardy did hit .282/.326/.442 with five homers in 181 at-bats in road games last season, and Oriole Park is pretty homer friendly for right-handed hitters. I don't think he'll be much of an asset elsewhere, but he should bounce back to 15-20 homers.

Yuniesky Betancourt (Brewers) - No, he's not a good player at all, but Betancourt managed 16 homers and 78 RBI while hitting mostly eighth and ninth for the Royals last season. Now he's slated to hit sixth in a better lineup for a team that plays in a better ballpark for offense. He'll be a liability in steals and runs scored, so he's not worth trying in mixed leagues. However, I'd bank on him matching Juan Uribe's production while costing about half as much.

Jed Lowrie (Red Sox) - Lowrie certainly deserves a chance to overtake Marco Scutaro at shortstop after hitting .287/.381/.526 in 171 at-bats following his return from mono last season, but he's not going to get it this spring. Instead, he'll open the season as a utilityman. Lowrie has struggled to stay healthy as a pro, but he's a doubles machine with 81 RBI in 499 career at-bats. Mixed leaguers should pick him up if any of Boston's starting infielders land on the DL.

Other thoughts

I was higher on Alexei Ramirez last year than this year. Manager Ozzie Guillen seems to much prefer him at the bottom of the order, and given that Ramirez finished with a poor .313 OBP to go along with his fine fantasy numbers last year, it's hard to argue with the choice. … I have Tsuyoshi Nishioka ranked 16th at shortstop with a .263 average, seven homers, 77 runs scored, 59 RBI and 17 steals. It's possible he'll hit .280 and score 90 runs as the Twins' No. 2 hitter, but given the adjustments he'll need to make, he has more downside than upside. … Reid Brignac should hit 15 homers and drive in 70 runs in his first season as a regular, but I'm not sure that will make him a solid mixed league shortstop with the Rays seemingly set to bat him ninth. … I like Ian Desmond better. The Nationals have him penciled into the two hole, so he should be much stronger in runs scored to go along with his 20 steals or so.
 

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Cards Get Scare From Carp
It's finally March. Actually, it's even March 2. Let that sink in for a bit. Feel the warmth. Think sunshine.

As the cold breaks over most of the Major League Baseball-watching world and highlights featuring bats and balls begin dominating nightly sports programs, we here at Rotoworld are beginning to flow right into a spring training groove. This daily blog -- we might even go as far as to call it a "Dose" -- should provide a regular home for all of the biggest headlines that are pouring out of practice fields in Arizona and Florida. It's going to be a great season.

Want to make it the best season yet? Check out Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide. It's filled with nearly 1,000 player profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, printable cheat sheets, customizable scoring features, expert mock drafts and more. There's nothing better to have at your side on draft day.

Lee And Greinke Debut

Analyzing spring stat lines is flat-out dumb. Especially this early, but even once it gets later in the Grapefruit and Cactus League schedules. Pitchers aren't yet throwing all their stuff, hitters aren't locked in like they will be, and managers are making all sorts of tweaks to exhibition game lineups. The performances down at spring training mean very little, especially for guys who can already claim roster spots.

But everybody likes to see new faces in new uniforms.

For left-hander Cliff Lee, a Phillies jersey is still at least somewhat familiar. He was a dominant member of their late-season and postseason starting rotation in 2009, when the Phightins lost to the Yankees in the World Series.

Lee made his spring debut Tuesday afternoon against the Tigers, allowing two runs in two innings of work. He hit a batter in his first frame, then allowed a triple, then allowed a sacrifice fly. The southpaw also walked a batter in his second inning on the mound before calling it quits on a sloppy but inconsequential debut down in Florida.

Over in Arizona, Zack Greinke made his first live-action throws in a Brewers uniform and was only slightly less shaky. The right-hander walked three batters in 1 1/3 innings, but ultimately held the White Sox scoreless and struck out two. His velocity, for what it's worth, was near mid-season form.

The Cardinals Avoid A Major Scare

The month of February was far from kind to the Cardinals and their fans. From the failed negotiations with Albert Pujols to the loss of Adam Wainwright, things have been rough. Let's even throw Nick Punto's hernia surgery into the mix. The procedure will keep him out for up to three months.

As bad as it has been, it almost got much worse Tuesday. Chris Carpenter called for a trainer after the 32nd pitch of his exhibition outing against the Marlins and immediately trotted off the mound. It turned out to be a mild hamstring strain that should only sideline him for the next 10 days to two weeks, but it sent a shiver from Jupiter, Florida to St. Louis, Missouri.

Almost immediately after Carpenter was pulled, reliever Mitchell Boggs had to exit with the training staff due to what is being termed a "lower back strain." Back injuries can be tricky for baseball players and it's likely that Boggs will still be in recovery mode by the time the regular season begins.

The Cards simply can't afford to lose any more important pieces of their 2011 puzzle.

What's Going On With Utley?

Phillies second baseman Chase Utley played in only 115 games last season due to a right thumb injury that eventually required surgery and he posted an OPS under .900 for the first time in six years. Now he's dealing with a right knee injury that has no exact recovery timetable.

For a very long time, and as recently as the spring of 2010, Utley was a perennial first-rounder in mixed fantasy baseball leagues. He had power at a position where such a thing is still scarce and he tallied monstrous numbers across the board. But what do we make of him now? Is he becoming an injury-prone player and an unreliable fantasy option as he moves firmly into his early-30s?

We're thinking it's too early to answer those questions. Sure, Utley has been injured a lot lately, but those injuries are generally of the freak variety and he is not a guy with chronic knee problems. Follow our player news page, where we'll have updates on the second baseman's status as soon as the Phillies give them out. For now, he's still a worthy second-round pick. If the knee injury passes, Utley will jump to the first round quite quickly.
 

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What's Next for Sizemore?
Can you believe that we are exactly four weeks away from Opening Day? It's true. Just let that sink in for a moment.

While it's tough to wait, you can count us on to guide you straight through to the beginning of the season with the latest news on injuries, position battles, prospects and much, much more. It's still very early in the exhibition schedule, but competition is about to heat up. Keep it locked here and our constantly-updated player news feed for all the latest.

By the way, you can find even more in-depth fantasy analysis in Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide. You'll find close to 1,000 player profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, updated depth charts, ADP data, printable cheat sheets, customizable scoring features and more. It's the perfect resource to get you ready for draft day.

Sizemore's Comeback Trail

Those who plan to gamble on Grady Sizemore on draft day, listen up. Indians head athletic trainer Lonnie Soloff met with reporters at the team's spring training complex Wednesday morning to provide extensive details about Sizemore's rehab from microfracture surgery on his knee.

The Indians have consistently said that Sizemore won't likely be ready for Opening Day, but according to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com, Soloff said Wednesday that if all goes well, he could begin playing in games by the second or third week of March. Of course, a lot will have to go right first.

Sizemore is scheduled to begin a "position-specific" agility program this week, which will include lateral movements and other techniques simulating what he would normally do while playing his familiar center field position. Soloff hopes that Sizemore can ramp up the intensity with those workouts next week before progressing to a baserunning program. Only then will they think about putting him in game action, either with minor leaguers or in Cactus League games.

The Indians have made it clear that Opening Day isn't the finish line for Sizemore, so if you pick him up in a fantasy league, you'll need to have a reliable backup plan. Remember, microfracture surgery is basically uncharted territory in MLB. The good news is that such an inexact timetable for his return could push him to the later rounds in some leagues, where he would actually make plenty of sense as a low-risk/high-reward option.

It's easy to forget that Sizemore is only 28 years old, so at least he has time on his side. He'll probably never be a 30-30 player again, but he could still be relevant in mixed leagues.

Gardy Likes Duensing

Twins manager Ron Gardenhire made an interesting decision Wednesday, declaring that Brian Duensing will "absolutely" open the season as a starting pitcher. Assuming that Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano are also locks for the rotation, that leaves Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn competing for the final two spots.

Maybe we shouldn't be surprised by Gardy's decision. Duensing went 7-2 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.25 WHIP after joining the Twins' starting rotation last July. But one thing to keep in mind is that he has also has the most relief experience of any of the pitchers mentioned above.

While Duensing has held right-handed batters to a .277/.336/.411 batting line in the major leagues, he has dominated lefty batters to the tune of a .192/.252/.250 batting line. The Twins lost some important pieces from their bullpen over the winter, including southpaws Brian Fuentes and Ron Mahay, so Duensing would have some real value to the team as a reliever. Instead, they'll rely on Baker, Slowey or Blackburn to do something they really haven't done before.

I don't mean to dismiss Duensing as a starting pitcher. He induces plenty of ground balls, doesn't walk many batters and also makes half of his appearances in Target Field. There's value there. But his inability to put batters away (5.49 K/9 over 214 2/3 major league innings) caps his potential upside in fantasy leagues.

Giants Have Fingers Crossed for Cain

I guess the Giants will have to hold off on their supposed plans to release Barry Zito. The team announced late Wednesday night that Matt Cain will miss his scheduled start Thursday due to inflammation -- but no structural damage -- in his throwing elbow.

The Giants are downplaying the severity of the injury right now and manager Bruce Bochy hopes Cain will only have to miss the one start, but we'll just have to wait and see how he feels in a couple days.

Cain has emerged as one of the more unsung workhorses in the game, eclipsing 200 innings in each of the past four seasons. The 26-year-old right-hander also has a spotless history as far as his health, never making a trip to the disabled list in the major leagues.

Cain should be one of the top 20 starting pitchers off the board in mixed leagues if he's healthy, but it's worth noting that he tossed a career-high 223 1/3 innings during the regular season in 2010. And that's not even including his 21 1/3 shutout innings during the postseason. Just something to think about.
 

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Feliz States His Case
And just like that, Oliver Perez lives to see another day as a member of the Mets.

Sure, Perez doesn't mean anything from a fantasy perspective at this point, but he is an example of why small sample sizes in spring training mean close to nothing. No, Perez didn't save his job by pitching two scoreless innings Thursday against the Cardinals, he merely kicked the can down the road. We have the past two (or even three) seasons to tell us that Perez is a) pretty awful and b) that he will soon be a very rich unemployed man. A couple of decent outings in spring training isn't going to change that. He is who he is.

It's easy to get caught up in the optimism surrounding the early days of spring training, especially as prospects or roster long-shots are getting some playing time, but aside from a surprise bench player or reliever here or there, we usually don't learn anything we didn't already know going in. I guess this is a friendly reminder to not get too carried away by spring training performances.

Want to rule your fantasy draft? Check out Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide. It's filled with nearly 1,000 player profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, printable cheat sheets, customizable scoring features, expert mock drafts and more. We're fully confident it will prepare you for a successful season.

The Great Feliz Experiment

One of the more interesting storylines of the spring kicked off Thursday afternoon, as Neftali Feliz had his first audition as a starting pitcher.

While Feliz managed to toss two scoreless innings against the Indians, he threw just 19 out of 36 pitches for strikes and had a difficult time controlling his secondary pitches. According to Jeff Caplan of ESPNDallas.com, of his nine off-speed pitches, six -- four changeups and two curveballs -- were called balls.

Feliz was able to dominate last season by relying mostly on his electric fastball, saving 40 games and winning the AL's Rookie of the Year award, but he'll need to have a more complete arsenal of pitches in order to make it as a starting pitcher.

Despite mixed results in his brief debut Thursday, the Rangers remain committed to giving Feliz a chance to win a rotation spot. While it's tough to mess with a good thing, there's little doubt that he can be much more valuable to the Rangers as a starting pitcher in the long run. He'll need to show steady and rapid improvement with his secondary stuff in order to get that opportunity this season, though.

I know what you're thinking. So what if Feliz does win a rotation spot? What happens to his fantasy value? Well, considering where he's being picked in most mock drafts as a closer right now, I'd push him down in the rankings. Feliz has obvious ace-potential down the road, but I worry that he would be subject to an innings limit as a starter in 2011.

I'm still speaking in the hypothetical, but assuming Feliz does stick in the starting rotation, that would leave a pretty big void in the ninth inning. The Rangers already traded their best internal option -- Frank Francisco -- in order to acquire Mike Napoli in January, so that would leave Mark Lowe, Alexi Ogando, Darren O'Day, Darren Oliver and Arthur Rhodes as potential replacements. Just something to consider.

For what it's worth, I still think Feliz begins the year as Ron Washington's closer.

Chipper Back at the Hot Corner

It's almost like the guy never left.

Chipper Jones was back at his old stomping grounds at third base Thursday for the first time since tearing the ACL in his his left knee last August. The 38-year-old initially planned to be the DH in Thursday's game and make his first start at third on Friday, but new Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez thought he was ready for the challenge.

Jones got tested pretty early, handling two opportunities without incident in the very first inning. He called it a day after four innings and later told David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that his first day back at third base was "excellent." Speaking as a long-time Mets fan, I can only assume that he said that Mr. Burns-style. Jones even thinks he could be back at the hot corner again Friday, depending on how his surgically-repaired knee responds. (UPDATE: Jones woke up with a bit of soreness, so he'll be the DH Friday)

While I'm encouraged by Jones' progress until this point, the veteran switch-hitter was a poor bet to stay healthy even before he blew out his knee. I'm not crazy about the depth at the third base position this year, but even so, Jones is a tremendous gamble for any fantasy owner. I still think he could be productive in a semi-regular role, but anybody that picks him up will need to have a reliable backup plan.

Berkman Already Ailing

The Cardinals signed Lance Berkman over the winter with the idea of using him in right field. Berkman, who turned 35 in February, hasn't played the outfield in a regular season game since 2007 and hasn't been a regular outfielder since 2004. What could possibly go wrong?

It's still very early in spring training, but Berkman is already ailing. Last week he came down with some soreness in his elbow, which he believes is related to the more frequent and longer throws required of an outfielder. And more recently, he was scratched from Thursday's lineup due to a left calf strain.

Berkman is confident that they are only minor injuries, but they only reinforce the belief that he will have a difficult time holding up playing the outfield again over a full season. Remember, Berkman has had surgery on both of his knees in the past, including a procedure on his left knee last March. I don't think he can be any worse than what he was last season from an offensive perspective, so he's certainly worth watching in mixed leagues, but don't overrate him based on name value.
 

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To open the fourth annual installment of the top fantasy prospects in baseball, let me quote the sentence I used to lead off last year's edition: The objective is to win now.

As such, this prospect rankings list will look a little different than other top-prospects lists because its purpose is different. I'm not taking the "long" view and examining a player's potential to help you over the next few seasons. Rather, this list has a narrower scope. I'm looking at the prospects who can help your team for the 2011 season, and just the 2011 season. I'm not considering 2012, 2013 or any years beyond the current one.

That takes some of the focus off pure talent and places a lot more of it on big league playing time. The objective is to determine which players are assured of regular major league at-bats, starts or appearances; which players have the best chance to get them if they don't have it already; and then combining that with their chances to do something productive with those at-bats/innings/appearances for a fantasy squad. If I didn't see any scenario in which a player would get at-bats this season, that guy didn't make this list, because he is of no use to you non-keeper-league owners.
For example, my two top-rated hitting prospects over the long haul are the Nationals' Bryce Harper and the Angels' Mike Trout. However, as much as I love their offensive potential, neither player is likely to see the big leagues this season, at least before a (possible) September call-up, so there is little value there in single-season formats, and we're not concerned with keeper leagues for this exercise. Similarly, the Royals are loaded right now with a stable of quality starting pitching prospects. While it's certainly possible that a couple of them will join the big league rotation as soon as this year, there really is no need for the team to rush them. At best, we might see them for limited innings -- limited enough that they have negligible fantasy impact.

So now that I've made it abundantly clear this is all about 2011, and that playing time is the key for fantasy purposes, it's important to note that there are many unpredictable variables that determine which players will ascend to the big leagues and when. Sometimes it's because of injuries to big league starters, or maybe there's just a spot open for a minor leaguer to step up. Nobody really saw Brennan Boesch being a fantasy factor in the first half of last season (even if he did very little in the second half), or Jonny Venters and Neil Walker having as much value as they did, but sometimes players happen into an unforeseen opportunity and take advantage of it. Other times, players with premium talent ascend into a major league role a touch sooner than expected, such as Mike Stanton and Starlin Castro last season. I try to balance projected playing time with a player's upside.
Also, try not to get too hung up on why Player X is ranked two spots ahead of Player Y, especially as we get further down the list. In many cases, the differences aren't that great. Often it's just because of the playing-time factor, not necessarily because someone is a better prospect or has more upside than those below him in the rankings. Player X might just have a clearer path to at-bats or a rotation job. Sometimes all it takes is one camp injury and a player can rocket up the list, and that's why these rankings can change month to month or even week to week, especially during spring training. This represents my viewpoint as of March 1.
You might decide that a lower-ranked player is the one you would choose as a matter of personal preference, or because it's a level of risk you are more willing to tolerate, or because that player's potential category contributions fit your team better, or because you want to focus more on the player with the biggest upside. That's fine. Season the list to your taste, and focus more on the write-ups of the players rather than the number next to their names.
One last note: A player needs to have maintained his rookie status to appear here, which means he has not: (A) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the major leagues; or (B) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a major league club or clubs during the period of the 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list). Thus, players who might still be perceived as prospects, such as Carlos Carrasco (too many big league innings) or Ryan Kalish (too many big league at-bats) are ineligible.
Without further ado, let's get to the top 50 fantasy prospects for the 2011 season:

1. Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Tampa Bay Rays: One of the reasons Matt Garza was dealt this offseason was that the Rays knew they had a big league-ready Hellickson to step in for him. "Hellboy" has drawn comparisons to David Cone from some scouts (though with a little less velocity), and that's mighty high praise. Hellickson locates his low-90s fastball on both sides of the plate, has a "plus" circle changeup to use against big league lefties and an above-average spike curve that he can drop in for strikes or make a chase pitch. He even started showing a little feel for a new cutter last season. Hellickson has a history of excelling in the minors over the past five years, and there's a very good chance he'll hit the ground running this season. It's not out of the question that he'll offer the returns of a top-50 starter this year, given his command, polish and strike-throwing ability. The only blemish is that he'll probably give up a decent number of homers -- being in the AL East won't help him there -- but If you're going to invest in a rookie hurler, this is a good place to start.
2. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves: Despite being only 21 years old, Freeman is expected to take over starting first-base duties for the Braves on Opening Day. He certainly earned the opportunity with a strong campaign at Triple-A Gwinnett last season -- he rebounded from a hand injury that caused a poor finish to his 2009 season to post a .319 AVG/.378 OBP/.521 SLG stat line, virtually identical to the stat line he put up in low Class A in his first professional season -- despite being the second-youngest regular in the league. He's unlikely to provide premium power at a power-packed position, but he can hit 20 homers, post a good batting average and solid on-base percentage and hit a lot of doubles. At times he looks a little stiff and uncoordinated, but he still manages to hit well, and he's also an above-average defender at first, with an arm you usually see at third base or in right field.
3. J.P. Arencibia, C, Toronto Blue Jays: The 25-year-old Arencibia hit .301 with 32 homers and a .986 OPS in just 412 Triple-A at-bats last season. Granted, he played his home games in a hitter-friendly park -- and a hitter-friendly league -- but Arencibia has always had plus power. He drew just 44 walks compared to 215 strikeouts in 976 combined at-bats in 2008 and 2009, but he also hit 48 homers. His on-base percentage is likely never going to be high in the big leagues, and his strikeout rate will be high, but fantasy owners are always looking for good power numbers from the catcher position, and this dead-pull hitter with a tendency to overswing can certainly supply that. The Jays plan to give him a chance to take the job and run with it despite some deficiencies defensively, and he has the capability to put up a 20-homer season right now if you can live with his low batting average and on-base percentage. Given that just four catchers managed to reach the 20-homer mark last season, that pop definitely gives him fantasy value.
4. Kyle Drabek, SP, Toronto Blue Jays: Drabek can hit the mid-90s with his fastball when he needs to, and his curve is a major league out pitch. He also gets ground balls in bunches with the movement on his two-seamer, a helpful survival tool in the AL East, and a new cutter helped him handle lefties much better. He got better as the season went along at Double-A, with his best pitching coming down the stretch, putting him on the fast track to the big leagues (he wound up making three late-season starts).
The 23-year-old is a favorite to break camp with the big club, and he should do more than just survive in Toronto's rotation. A small investment should have a nice return in AL leagues. There will be some growing pains -- Drabek will go through stretches in which his command and control wander -- but there will be more good than bad. In fact, he could rapidly improve his consistency, since he has shown he can repeat his delivery better and lean on that two-seamer. I freely admit I was not always on the Drabek bandwagon, but the improvements he has made in his game over the past year have firmly changed my mind.
5. Danny Espinosa, SS, Nationals: A shortstop out of Long Beach State like Evan Longoria, Troy Tulowitzki and Bobby Crosby before him, Espinosa, a third-round pick in the 2008 draft, will open the year as the Nationals' second baseman after a year in which he was just one of three minor leaguers to hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases, an enticing profile for fantasy owners. The 6-foot switch-hitter has a lean, athletic build with strength and doesn't get cheated when he swings, producing good bat speed. He might not hit for a high average -- his swing can get a little long -- but he does have homer power.
Espinosa did have surgery to repair a broken hamate bone in the offseason, and normally that would be more of a concern, but doctors found out he actually broke it two seasons ago, after which it healed on its own before he broke it again. That means he was still hitting for pop despite troubles with his hand, which gives him a good chance to keep doing so after having the problem corrected. He has only average speed, but is a smart, aggressive runner with good instincts and should be good for 15 steals over a full season. Like I said, his batting average could be a bit iffy, but his job is fairly secure, and you'll take teens homer power and speed at a middle-infield position, no doubt.
6. Craig Kimbrel, RP, Atlanta Braves: Will he throw strikes with regularity? That's the big question regarding Kimbrel, because nobody can question his stuff. He was ridiculous at the end of last season, striking out 23 batters over his final 12 frames, throwing strikes and averaging just less than 15 strikeouts per nine overall in his 20-plus big league innings. That said, this is the same guy who averaged almost six walks per nine innings in his minor league career; you were never quite sure whether the Kimbrel you were seeing that day was the one that was "on."

Kimbrel comes from a three-quarters delivery and generally sits in the 93-95 mph range with his fastball, which has outstanding movement (it tails in on righty hitters). In fact, the ball appears to stay up and defy gravity. It's a little tough to pick up, and on occasion he has dialed it up higher. Then again, at times he also has had to back it down to the 90-92 mph range just to locate it. You can call his breaking ball whatever you want -- scouts generally call it a slider, Kimbrel calls it a curve -- but batters simply call it nasty. One other scout referred to the pitch as a "knuckle-slurve," and it does seem to fit since it has tight sweep across the strike zone. When he's on, Kimbrel is just plain unhittable, and he has that aggressive streak you want from a closer. So it all comes down to his consistency from outing to outing.
Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez has said that Kimbrel and Jonny Venters will be "co-closers" to start the season until one of them takes over the job, but you do get the sense that Kimbrel is the man the Braves would like to see there. They want him to take the job and run with it, and he likely will get the first opportunity, but he'll have to show enough consistency within the strike zone to keep it. His stuff is as closer-worthy as anyone you will find, but the first thing a stopper must do is throw strikes.
7. Mike Minor, SP, Atlanta Braves: One of the reasons the Braves took Minor seventh overall in the 2009 draft was because he was a polished college pitcher who could move up quickly, and that's exactly what he did. It wasn't exactly the "Mike Leake fast track" to the big leagues (no minor leagues), but it wasn't far off; he made the big leagues after just 25 minor league starts. He fanned 109 batters in 87 innings at Double-A, and another 37 in 33 innings at Triple-A (with a 1.89 ERA), before getting the call.
A bit of increased velocity has helped him. Both as an amateur and at the Arizona Fall League in 2009 he was a low-90s guy, but he was dialing it up to 92-94 mph last season before running out of gas a little at the end of the year. However, it wasn't just velocity that put Minor on the fast track the big leagues. His pitch command and ability to throw all three of his pitches for strikes, mixing them up and keeping hitters off-balance, are what set him apart. His "plus" changeup gives him a good weapon versus right-handed hitters, and his curve developed a more consistent break last season and got more swings and misses. Minor is the favorite to win the fifth starter job in Atlanta this year, and should have success right away.
8. Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies: The starting right-field job in Philly is there for the taking with Jayson Werth now in Washington, and though manager Charlie Manuel has said the job "is up for grabs," Brown may be the favorite to be there on Opening Day. He hit .327 with a .980 OPS between Double-A and Triple-A last year before getting a late-season audition. His tools, athleticism and raw ability have always been obvious to scouts and onlookers, and as he has grown into his 6-foot-5, 205-pound frame, he has become less awkward and uncoordinated. The improved body control has allowed him to take better advantage of his considerable natural gifts. His swing also became more consistent last season; he stayed back better and got more consistent leverage. Possessing great speed, he projects to hit for both average and power. He has the speed to post 20-steal seasons, but right now he steals bases mostly with just his raw speed; he still needs to learn the nuances of reading pitches and getting good jumps.
There are still questions about Brown's ability to handle big league-quality secondary stuff at this stage of his career -- he can get too aggressive and get himself out -- and it's very possible he could start slow, or be back at Triple-A with Ben Francisco starting and giving Brown a little more development time. Brown is working on some setup and swing adjustments in camp, and is off to a slow start in early spring games. But his athletic ability and talent likely will earn him the job at some point, and they make him worth betting on because of the potential for across-the-board fantasy production.


9. Aroldis Chapman, RP, Cincinnati Reds: The Reds will leave Chapman and his triple-digit heater in the bullpen for now, which will limit his fantasy utility somewhat. However, focusing on airing it out and just using a two-pitch combo is going to result in a ton of swings and misses. Although his slider goes through periods in which it acts more like a cutter, most of the time it's just plain filthy, and we know he can get K's off the fastball alone. If the Reds decided to stretch him out later as a starter, he could succeed there as well, working in the mid-to-high 90s and mixing in a passable changeup, although Chapman certainly has the stuff to succeed as a two-pitch starter, even though he had problems going deep into games in the minors last season.
Quality setup men with big-time strikeout ability have more fantasy value than many fantasy owners realize, especially in single-league formats, not to mention the saves upside that Chapman has if aging closer Francisco Cordero gets hurt or implodes. The Reds have enough starting pitching depth that I don't expect Chapman to move from a bullpen role this season, but he'll have value even if he doesn't.
10. Chris Sale, RP, Chicago White Sox: All offseason, the question surrounding Sale was what his role would be in 2011. Would the team try to stretch him out as a starter? However, it was announced early in camp that Sale will be in the bullpen this year, which does make him a saves sleeper, even with Matt Thornton expected to step into the closer role. It's probably the right role for Sale; his stuff plays up there, and there are questions as to whether his delivery would allow him to hold up as a starter.
It's also a better thing for fantasy owners because it gives him a better chance to have an impact this season. That will be the key, and that makes him one of the bigger wild cards entering fantasy drafts. White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen likes Sale and his upper-90s fastball and nasty slider so much that he hinted on multiple occasions in the offseason that he was leaning toward Sale as the closer and Thornton continuing to be a great setup man, although he did back off that as camp opened. Despite having just 10 innings of minor league experience before reaching the major leagues, Sale is ready to get hitters out right now in a relief role. It's just a question of whether that role will be in the eighth or ninth inning. High-strikeout setup men can still have great utility in fantasy, and Sale definitely fits the bill there. And as noted before, he has saves potential if Thornton gets hurt or Guillen changes his mind.
11. Michael Pineda, SP, Seattle Mariners: This 22-year-old righty didn't get much attention before last season started, largely because of an elbow problem that limited him to just 47 1/3 innings in 2009, all but three of them at high Class A. But he was dominant in Double-A in his first 13 starts of 2010, with 78 strikeouts and just 17 walks and one homer in 77 innings. That earned him a promotion to Triple-A, where he finished the year with a 76-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 62 1/3 innings.
Pineda is a big right-hander with a live arm -- he can dial it up to 97 mph -- and there's some deception in his delivery that makes the ball hard to pick up out his hand. It's not just the velocity, though; he has a heavy ball that is tough to get the barrel of the bat on due to its life, and he can command it on both sides of the plate. He also features a mid-80s slider with short break that works well off the fastball movement, and there is promise in his mid-80s changeup, which has split-like action. He can throw it for strikes, but he needs to gain a little more trust in it and feel for it.
Pineda projects as a solid No. 2 starter in the big leagues. He's ready to contribute now thanks to his fastball, though he probably needs a bit more polish on his secondary stuff and still must learn to repeat his delivery better. The Mariners don't have any need to rush him, so they'll probably wait a couple of months for service-time reasons, but he's arguably their second-best starter right now, and we'll see him before too long. Target him in AL-only and deep mixed leagues.
12. Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays' signings of Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez likely will push Jennings back to Triple-A for now, giving him a little more development time. Jennings' fantasy profile is similar to that of former Rays All-Star Carl Crawford, even if they aren't quite the same type of player. One negative, though: Jennings must prove he can stay healthy for a full season. He has a lengthy injury history dating back to his amateur days, including wrist and shoulder injuries last season that limited his ability to drive the ball. We know Jennings can get on base, and we know he can run -- he stole a combined 89 bases (in 100 attempts) the past two seasons -- but he also must show that persistent problems with his left shoulder won't continue. The nagging shoulder injury could prevent him from developing the teens-homers pop he's capable of.
Make no mistake about it: Jennings will bring the steals when he plays, and he has a good chance of hitting for average right away, given his good approach at the plate, his contact skills and his ability to utilize his speed to leg out infield hits. While he likely won't be a fantasy factor for perhaps half the season, he should steal bases in bunches when he arrives and make a big impact in that category down the stretch.
13. Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco Giants: Belt, a fifth-round pick in the 2009 draft, seemingly came out of nowhere to post a monster season (a combined .352 batting average and 1.075 OPS) across three levels last year. The Giants altered his stance and cut out some of the excess movement in his swing to help him tap into his raw power better and more consistently, and he took off from there. Although Belt stole 22 bases last year, it won't be a part of his game at the big league level, as he doesn't have above-average speed. He stole a number of bags early in the year simply by taking advantage of Class A pitchers not paying attention to him. Fantasy owners won't mind the projected lack of steals, though, given Belt's potential to hit for both average and power.
I've been impressed with the quality of Belt's at-bats, his ability to generate power without overswinging and his ability to drive the ball to the opposite field. He is probably ready to hit big league pitching right now, but there really aren't any openings at the moment at either first base or left field, a position he is athletic enough to handle, if necessary. Still, just like fellow Giant Buster Posey in 2010, Belt could be a fantasy factor immediately upon call-up. He could help owners over the final four months of the season, especially if Pat Burrell isn't able to replicate his late-2010 success. On pure potential for this season, Belt wouldn't rank this low. It's just a question of how quickly he can work his way into the mix, given the veterans ahead of him. I wrote more about Belt's development and the changes in his swing that propelled him to his breakout campaign in a late-October blog.
14. Tsuyoshi Nishioka, SS, Minnesota Twins: Nishioka will be the starting second baseman for the Twins this season after signing a three-year deal to come over from Japan, where he played shortstop. Last year he had 206 hits in the Japan Pacific League, second in its history only to Ichiro Suzuki's 210 in 1994. The switch-hitter makes excellent contact and should provide a good batting average, and he stole 20-plus bases each of the past two seasons in Japan (albeit not at a great percentage, which means 20 steals in the States this year might be a stretch). It's worth noting, however, that the 26-year-old has had some injury issues in his career, so health might be an issue.
We tend to get enamored when a shiny new toy (such as Nishioka) is added to the player pool, but be careful not to expect too much here. He'll play every day, will likely bat in the two-hole and does possess some decent skills, so he does have value. A .280 average with regular at-bats and a teens steal total has its uses, especially in single-league formats. But you'll need to find pop elsewhere.
15. Jake McGee, RP, Tampa Bay Rays: Of the current options the Rays have in their remade bullpen to compete for the closer role, the 24-year-old McGee is the one with the biggest upside, and he could emerge with the job sooner rather than later. After working as a starter in his minor league career, he was moved to the bullpen last season to get his arm to the majors a little quicker. For now, that's where he stays, although a return to the rotation is still possible down the road. Regardless, this is the kind of premium arm you like to take a chance on, regardless of role. The lefty's fastball/power curve (some call it a slider, due to its action) combo will work well out of the bullpen. His mid-90s heater has enough life to get swings and misses on its own; that's a good sign for his chances to succeed at the big league level and maintain his high minor league strikeout rates, as there are nights his breaking ball will be inconsistent and get "slurvy." While the other closer options all have health or effectiveness concerns, McGee's issues are only youth and inexperience. Simply put, he has a big league arm and can get outs now in a prominent role. Andrew Bailey, John Axford and Neftali Feliz all established themselves as closers as rookies, and McGee could do the same if given the opportunity.

McGee already told the St. Petersburg Times this spring that he wants the ball in the ninth, saying he could handle it. Upon hearing that, Joe Maddon said, "He said that? Good for him. I think that's great. I love it." Then the manager went on to praise the poise McGee showed in his big league debut last season, no small trait for a pitcher working the ninth. Watch those spring reports closely. 16. Hank Conger, C, Los Angeles Angels: The spotlight is on this talented prospect after the club's trade of Mike Napoli (in the Vernon Wells deal). As much as Angels manager Mike Scioscia loves Jeff Mathis' defense, Conger is now in line to at least share some of the catching at-bats this season, and his patient approach and ability to make solid contact -- he has hit .300 in each of his past three minor league seasons -- should help him have success at the plate right away. The switch-hitter doesn't have a ton of power, but he can reach double digits in homers, and the 23-year-old also has made some strides defensively over the past couple of seasons, though his throwing still needs improvement. He has the profile for a usable batting average and a little pop, making him a definite sleeper option in AL-only formats. He's going to hit; it's just a question of how many at-bats he will get, given Scioscia's affection for the non-hitting parts of Mathis' game.
17. Kenley Jansen, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers: A converted catcher, Jansen pitched a combined 45 innings in the minors last season, striking out 78 batters and allowing no homers. The performance got him a call to the majors, where he didn't miss a beat. He picked up four saves for the Dodgers while still not allowing the ball to leave the yard (in 27 innings), thanks to a high-90s fastball with riding life in the zone. His slider is a bit inconsistent, but it does have a two-plane break when it's on, so it can be a "plus" offering at times. He's still relatively new to pitching, so he needs more polish and must learn to control his tendency to overthrow, but his raw stuff is good enough to get him results right now.
Given some of the question marks surrounding projected Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton after his poor finish to the season last year, and Hong-Chih Kuo's lengthy injury history, it would not be a shock to see Jansen finishing the season as the Dodgers closer. He has the stuff; he just needs the opportunity. Even in a setup role, he could still have fantasy value, given his ability to make batters miss. I wrote more about Jansen (with video) and his ascension to the big leagues when he was called up last year.

18. Jesus Montero, C, New York Yankees: Montero is pretty much ready to hit big league pitching for both average and power, thanks to his freakishly strong hands and wrists. It's just a question of when he will get the opportunity to get regular at-bats. He was batting .229 with just three homers after the first two months of the Triple-A season in 2010, but he made adjustments and went on a tear, hitting .351 and slugging .694 over the second half of the season, continuing to show a feel for putting the barrel of the bat on the ball, which he has had since becoming a pro. He also proved capable of hitting with power to the opposite field when pitchers tried to work away against him.

Montero is still a below-average catcher defensively, with many scouts questioning whether he will ever be adequate enough behind the plate. That doesn't help his case for playing time, and the presence of Russell Martin means the Yankees don't have to rush Montero just to fill a need. His best chance for at-bats -- assuming he's not included in a trade at some point, as he almost was last year for Cliff Lee -- might be if the aging Jorge Posada gets hurt again, opening up the DH slot. Montero also could just plain hit his way into big league at-bats by raking at Triple-A to the point that the Yanks couldn't ignore his production anymore. He's ranked this low only because of the uncertainty surrounding his 2011 playing time, not because of his potential, which is right up there among the best hitting prospects in the minors. 19. Zach Britton, SP, Baltimore Orioles: One of the best pitching prospects in the game, the left-handed Britton can touch the mid-90s when he needs to, but his game is built around a nasty sinker that is arguably the best in the minors. His career ground-ball rate is higher than 60 percent as a pro. He also throws a sharp-breaking slider that is effective against lefties, but it has been the development of his changeup that has made Britton a big-time prospect. That pitch gives him the weapon he needs against right-handed hitters (differentiating him from an extreme ground-ball specialist such as Justin Masterson, who has nothing to get opposite-side batters out). Britton's overall command just needs a little polishing, and the 23-year-old's simple, repeatable delivery should allow him to do that. He allowed just seven homers in 153 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last season, posting sub-3.00 ERAs at both stops.
As is the case for many of the top prospects these days, we might not see Britton until the second half of the season, for service-time reasons if nothing else, and the AL East is a notoriously unforgiving environment to break into. But this is a guy to stash away in AL leagues. He's a potential No. 2 starter down the road, and his sinker gives him a chance to have success right away.
20. Cory Luebke, SP, San Diego Padres: A former supplemental first-round pick, Luebke lived up to that lofty draft position in 2010, posting a 2.68 ERA in 114 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. He featured an improved changeup and more consistent slider last season, as he repeated his delivery better. He throws all of his pitches for strikes and has solid life on his fastball, locating it on both sides of the plate, and he mixes up his pitches well. He's a sleeper starter in NL-only play, given his polish, what should be a good defense behind him and his favorable home park, even if he lacks the ceiling of some other rookie hurlers.
He doesn't have the upside of fellow Padres prospects Simon Castro or Casey Kelly, but he's ready to get outs in the big leagues right now, and likely will get a chance to do so as the club's fifth starter, which means he has the best chance among the three for 2011 value.
21. Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle Mariners: The No. 2 overall pick in the 2009 draft is likely to start the year in Triple-A, presumably to continue working on his defense at second base, though delaying his "major league clock" (service time) is likely the primary reason. However, he has an excellent chance to be the Mariners' starting second baseman by midseason.
Ackley had a tendency to "drift" at the plate when he first started pro ball, not getting a good load or hitting with a firm front side, which caused him to hook and flare the ball. But by the second half of last season, he was doing a better job of staying back and getting some carry on the ball, to go along with a batting eye that allowed him to draw almost as many walks as strikeouts in the minors last year. With his "plus" speed, steals should become a bigger part of Ackley's game, too. He had a breakout campaign in the Arizona Fall League -- he was stinging line drives all over the place -- that included him winning the MVP award there, showing off the hand-eye coordination and feel for getting the barrel of the bat on the ball that made him such a high draft pick. Fantasy-wise, he's capable of hitting .280 or above with double-digit steals, even if he doesn't arrive until June. That makes him a solid player for AL-only leagues when he gets the starting job, and maybe mixed leagues once he settles in. I wrote about him in more detail during the AFL (with video).
22. Jordan Walden, RP, Los Angeles Angels: Projected Angels closer Fernando Rodney could implode at any time, and even after the team's signing of Scott Downs, Walden could be very much in the closer mix. In fact, that is the role the hard-throwing righty is being groomed for, given his premium stuff. It's just a question of whether Walden has harnessed his control enough for the "future" to begin now.
Walden touches triple digits with a very heavy ball that is tough to elevate and gets lots of grounders when he's not punching guys out. We're talking nasty movement here. His slider is still inconsistent but solid. He just needs to show he can throw strikes reasonably consistently and gain some experience. The Angels made a young fireballer their closer once before with Francisco Rodriguez, and they could do the same with Walden. For those interested in reading more about Walden, I discussed him in more detail in this blog entry, including a sample of a big league-style pro scouting report on the 20-to-80 scouting scale from when I saw him in 2007, and how he has changed (or not changed) since then.
23. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals: The second overall pick in the 2007 draft restored some luster to his prospect status in 2010 with the monster breakout season we had been waiting for. He hit 36 homers combined between Double- and Triple-A to tie for the minor league lead. He learned to be more selectively aggressive, doing a better job at waiting for pitches he had a chance to punish, made better use of the ferocious bat speed that made him such a high pick in the first place, and he hit for power to all fields without sacrificing contact. He also put to rest concerns that some of his production at Double-A was driven by his home park -- he hit 17 of his 21 homers at home, and had a slugging percentage almost 500 points higher at home than on the road -- by hitting 15 homers in just 52 games after being promoted to Triple-A.
A service-time delay likely will keep Moustakas in the minors for the first couple of months of the 2011 season; he'll work on tightening up his approach against southpaws a little more. Still, he could be in the Royals' starting lineup by the second half of the season, and he bears close watching given the relative thinness of the third-base pool this year, especially if he starts handling southpaws better.

24. Brent Morel, 3B, Chicago White Sox: Morel is not assured of winning the third-base job in Chicago, but considering he only has to beat out Mark Teahen at this point, there's a good chance he'll do so. He is one of those players who can be serviceable in fantasy play if he has a regular job but doesn't have the pop you're looking for from a third baseman. His value is likely going to be driven mostly by his batting average. He could be useful in AL-only leagues, but he might lack the offensive upside for mixed-league utility. However, as I mentioned before, this is a year in which the third-base position isn't exactly deep compared to past seasons, making Morel worth at least monitoring. I went into more detail (with video) about Morel and his offensive potential in this blog entry.

25. Ivan Nova, SP, New York Yankees: Nova is one of the favorites to win one of the currently open spots at the back end of the Yankees' rotation after acquitting himself fairly well in a late-season audition last year, although he did have trouble going deep into games. The 24-year-old can dial up his fastball into the mid-90s, and has two usable secondary pitches to go with it: a hard curveball that can be a plus pitch when he's commanding it, and a changeup that he has shown some feel for, though it lacks consistency. The arsenal is there. It's just a matter of him throwing a few more strikes now that he has gotten his feet wet in the big leagues and sharpening his overall command by repeating his delivery better and not letting his mechanics wander in the middle of a start. But given the potential quality of his repertoire, he could have a little more value in AL-only play than most owners realize if he wins a starting spot.
26. Jordan Lyles, SP, Houston Astros: A supplemental first-round pick in the 2008 draft, this 6-4 right-hander skipped right over the high-Class A level last year and made six starts at Triple-A before his 20th birthday. He was the only teenager in the Pacific Coast League, so he is clearly on the fast track for a team seeking rotation depth. Lyles has solid command of his low-90s fastball, spotting it all over the zone, along with two advanced secondary pitches. His five-pitch mix keeps hitters guessing and makes him a pitcher to watch. He's a great athlete, which allows him to repeat his clean delivery well and throw strikes.
Despite his age, there's not a ton more "projectability" here, but there's still a little more room for growth. He's likely not going to have that big strikeout upside you'd like out of a prospect pitcher, but he can be a workhorse who will get a lot of outs in the big leagues. He's battling for the fifth starter's job in camp, and even if he doesn't win it right away, he's likely going to be a big league factor sooner rather than later.
27. Kyle Gibson, SP, Minnesota Twins: Gibson, a first-round pick in 2009, was expected to move through the minors quickly but didn't play after signing in 2009 because of a stress fracture in his forearm. He made up for lost time last year, though, advancing three levels to finish the year at Triple-A, posting a combined 2.96 ERA and 1.15 WHIP along the way.
The Twins' rotation is full to start the season, but Gibson could work his way into the picture by the second half if he keeps pitching the way he has been. The Twins have generally been patient with their starting pitching prospects, as current starters Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing all had to get starts under their belts at Triple-A, as did ones who have failed to establish themselves, such as Jeff Manship, Glen Perkins and Anthony Swarzak. As such, considering Gibson has just three starts at Triple-A, we should probably be conservative in his big league innings estimate. However, since he does possess two above-average secondary pitches, solid command of his fastball and a ground-ball profile, I'd give Gibson a chance to move faster than expected, making him a pitcher to watch in AL-only leagues.
28. Brandon Beachy, SP, Atlanta Braves: Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2008, Beachy has sped through the minors thanks to advanced control and command, posting a minor league-best 1.73 ERA across Double-A and Triple-A last season, and fanning 15 batters in 15 big league innings over three starts for the Braves in September. He also added more strikeouts to the mix last season thanks to a much-improved changeup that quickly became a go-to pitch for him.
Beachy has good movement on his low-90s fastball and locates it well. Along with a solid curve and the aforementioned changeup, he does a good job of mixing thing up and keeping hitters off-balance. There is one spot currently open in the Braves' rotation, and it appears Mike Minor is the favorite for it, but the Braves likely will need Beachy in the rotation at some point this season, and his savvy and "pitchability" give him a chance to have short-term success. He has spent time both as a starter and as a reliever, so it's possible he could make the club out of the bullpen as a long reliever instead of joining the Triple-A rotation. Regardless, he's a sleeper to stash away in NL-only leagues.
29. Matt Dominguez, 3B, Florida Marlins: Dominguez is being given a good chance to win the Marlins' third-base job despite hitting just .252 and slugging .411 at Double-A last season. The reason for that is thanks to his defense at the hot corner, which is the best I've seen in the minors over the past couple of years. Dominguez, a first-round pick in 2007, made some strides last year in reducing a hitch in his swing that can make him late to the ball, and not getting out on his front foot, which messes up his timing. That said, he still has some pitch-recognition issues, and he can be beaten on the inner half of the plate. Just the fact that he likely will get regular playing time, given his defense, makes him worth noting for single-league-format owners, who are always looking for any youngster in line for regular at-bats. But I'm skeptical about his offensive potential. His offensive upside seems average at best, and the 21-year-old is not even at that point yet. Still, he could make some strides and surprise.
30. Juan Miranda, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks: The 27-year-old Cuban defector is technically still a prospect, and he has a chance to earn some significant playing time in the Valley of the Sun. Miranda will be eligible at DH/utility only to start the year but is a favorite of new D-backs GM Kevin Towers, who got to know his talents well while he was working with the Yankees, targeted him in the offseason, and thinks he has a good chance to hold down the first-base job if given an extended opportunity.

Miranda has good pop from the left side and has some plate discipline to go with it, with a career on-base percentage better than .360 in the minors. He will gain first-base eligibility soon enough and might be overlooked in NL-only leagues on draft day. Drafting him is a calculated risk, but it could pay off nicely in the power department, with a decent batting average to go with it. The club did sign Russell Branyan, and Brandon Allen is also around to compete for playing time, but Branyan might be more in the way of insurance at the position and used more as a bench bat if Miranda has a solid spring, and there are some in the organization who think Allen has holes in his swing that will be an issue in the big leagues. Miranda's numbers are not likely to blow you away, but he can be quietly effective and useful if given the at-bats. 31. Scott Cousins, OF, Florida Marlins: The 26-year-old Cousins is likely to start the season as the Marlins' fourth outfielder, with the chance to earn more playing time if there's an injury or Chris Coghlan disappoints with his bat or his glove while transitioning to center field. Cousins is a "toolsy" player who can play all three outfield positions well and would post double digits in both homers and steals, with the bat speed to post a solid batting average, if given a regular job. He separated his shoulder early last season but hit .335 with a .544 slugging percentage over the second half of the season at Triple-A once he was healthy again, and he showed marked improvement against southpaws, reducing his tendency to get too aggressive and get himself out. He could have some sneaky value in single-league formats.
32. Chris Carter, 1B/OF, Oakland Athletics: Carter went 0-for-33 to start his major league career, but there's still some dangerous thunder in his bat; he has hit 39, 28 and 34 homers, respectively, over the past three seasons. He can play either first base or left field, but his best position, really, is simply in the batter's box. That won't help his case for playing time, and he's likely to start the year back at Triple-A. Despite the high homer totals, he still has some things to work on. The biggest is being more consistent with the timing of his swing. Sometimes he starts his swing late, perhaps because he's looking for off-speed pitches a bit too much, and at other times, he's way out in front of pitches. He still must recognize and adapt better to the steady diet of junk and better secondary stuff he's seeing, and continue to manage his proclivity to chase. The A's are overloaded with veteran outfield and DH options right now, and appear happy with Daric Barton at first, meaning Carter likely will need an injury or two to get an opportunity. His power will come with a low batting average and a ton of strikeouts, although he is willing to take a walk. AL-only owners should stash him in reserve and hope to hit the home run lottery later in the year.
33. Lucas Duda, OF, New York Mets: The 25-year-old with the massive 6-5, 240-pound frame finally tapped into his raw power and had a breakout year in 2010. Duda hit .304 with 23 homers and an on-base percentage just below .400 between Double- and Triple-A, and had a strong finish in the big leagues in the final few weeks (after a slow start). He's a below-average defender in the outfield, which won't help his case for at-bats, but he has a decent batting eye, makes contact and is a legitimate power prospect, enough that the bat might allow you to overlook his defense somewhat. He does a good job of looking for something to drive rather than something he can simply make contact with, and he can hit the ball hard. Given the health questions the Mets have entering the season with their corner outfielders (Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran), Duda could wind up getting regular at-bats at some point, and be worth a look in NL-only leagues.
34. Simon Castro, SP, San Diego Padres: Castro, who will turn 23 in April, posted a 2.92 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in a good pitcher's park at Double-A last year. Castro has a funky El Duque-type delivery that has some scouts wondering if he can have consistent command as a starter at the big league level, given that he doesn't always repeat his pitching motion well and his release point wanders. But at the same time, that delivery does have some deception, which helps him miss a lot of bats. He also locates his slider well, he can throw strikes, and Petco Park can cover up a lot of mistakes.
Castro will start the year at Triple-A, where he'll work on his location and his changeup to become more than just at two-pitch hurler, but he could be a part of the big league club's plans by the second half of the season if he shows a bit more overall refinement. Consider him a deep sleeper in NL-only leagues. He has more upside than teammate and fellow prospect Cory Luebke, though Luebke is the better bet for short-term success. (For those wondering about another top Padres pitching prospect, Casey Kelly probably won't be ready to make an impact in the big leagues this season; he'll start at Double-A in his second year of full-time pitching, and still has command issues to work on.)
35. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals: Arguably the best first-base prospect in the minors, Hosmer put up a monster season in the minors in 2010 (.977 OPS between Class A and Double-A). Granted, that performance was expected of him when he was drafted, but it was likely a year delayed because of Lasik surgery and a finger injury. Hosmer makes very hard contact with good balance and without overswinging, has power to all fields, and has the plate discipline and pitch recognition (now that he can see correctly) to post a high batting average to go with it. The third overall pick in the 2008 draft is clearly the Royals' first baseman of the future and should make his debut sometime in the second half of the season, perhaps sooner than that if he's hitting and Kila Ka'aihue is struggling. This makes him someone who should be on your radar for this season. I wrote more extensively about Hosmer during the 2010 Arizona Fall League.

36. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Cincinnati Reds: Alonso, the seventh overall pick in the 2008 draft, got off to a slow start last season -- he was still getting up to speed while recovering from a broken hamate bone that cost him half of the 2009 season -- but started hitting the ball with authority again at Triple-A, posting a .335 AVG/.416 OBP/.561 SLG stat line over his final 173 at-bats in the minors. He has a good understanding of the strike zone, and could eventually hit 30 homers over a full season if he improves against left-handed pitching.
Of course, the bigger issue with Alonso is that he's stuck behind reigning National League MVP Joey Votto in the Reds' organization. Alonso is spending more time working in left field this spring to find a way to get him in the lineup, but he's miscast there defensively, and could wind up being a trade piece at some point. Unfortunately, a Votto injury appears to be Alonso's best path to playing time right now, unless he somehow adapts better to left field than expected or is involved in a trade that allows him to man first base for another organization. He's not far off from being ready to contribute, but he needs an opening that will give him extended at-bats.
37. Tanner Scheppers, P, Texas Rangers: Scheppers has a premium power arm -- he can throw in the high 90s with a wicked breaking ball -- but he struggled a bit last season while working on developing his split-changeup. Given his past shoulder troubles and power repertoire, many scouts think Scheppers should be working in the back end of a big league bullpen, racking up strikeouts (and potentially saves if Neftali Feliz moves to the rotation) in the process. The Rangers still are committed to stretching him out as a starter, though, and that's what he will work on this spring. We'll see how that shakes out. How Feliz and Alexi Ogando fare in their own attempts to stretch out this spring could affect Scheppers' future job description as well. Either way, this is an arm that bears close attention, and he's not far off from being big league-ready. I like to take chances on power arms, stash them away and wait for them to slide into a role. I wrote more about Scheppers last year, including some slow-motion video of his delivery.
38. Jarrod Parker, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks: By far the best pitching prospect in the D-backs system, Parker, the ninth overall pick in the 2007 draft, was one of the best pitching prospects in the game before getting derailed by Tommy John surgery in 2009 and missing all of last season. However, he made it back for instructional-league play, and showed he could still bring upper-90s heat. The velocity is also coming from a relatively clean delivery, which allows him to command the ball well. As hard as he throws, he's more than just a velocity guy. He throws four pitches, including a hard-breaking "plus" slider and an above-average changeup with some sink and fade. The radar-gun readings are back; now it's just a matter of him polishing his other pitches and getting the feel for them again.
But that could come fast. With the heat he can bring, his command potential and two solid secondary pitches, Parker is worth watching closely. He should make his big league debut at some point this season, especially given some of the question marks at the back end of Arizona's rotation. He's likely to start the year at Double-A Mobile, but he could move fairly quickly and have fantasy impact this season even though his total innings likely will be limited.
39. Brad Emaus, 2B, New York Mets: The Mets grabbed Emaus in the Rule 5 draft from the Blue Jays, and he'll have a chance to earn the starting second-base job with a good spring, with Daniel Murphy and Luis Castillo being the primary competition. I've kept my eye on Emaus, who will turn 25 at the end of camp, since I first saw him in the Hawaii Winter League back in 2008. He drew comparisons to Ty Wigginton earlier in his pro career, though it looks like he has the potential for better on-base skills than Wigginton, albeit with not as much pop. When he's on, Emaus features a stroke that scouts call "short to and long through." In other words, a short path to the ball, and his bat stays in the hitting zone a long time. If he wins the second-base job, he'd obviously be worth a look in NL-only play, and could be a sleeper in mixed leagues, with the potential for a solid on-base percentage and teens homer power.
For those wondering about another Mets second-base prospect, Reese Havens, I simply want to see him stay healthy first. There's definite offensive potential in the 2008 first-rounder, but he has played in just 152 games his first two and a half professional seasons, and the Mets have enough options that they don't need to push him.
40. Ben Revere, OF, Minnesota Twins: At least a 70 runner on the 20-to-80 scouting scale and a plus defender capable of playing either left or center field, Revere is pretty close to being ready for regular at-bats in the big leagues. He's never going to hit for power, but he has hit better than .300 in each of his four pro seasons, and has 40-steal ability at the big league level -- he stole 36, 45 and 44 bags, respectively, over the past three years -- and perhaps even 50-steal potential as he continues to refine that part of his game instead of relying so much on his raw speed. Revere has good on-base skills to make use of those wheels, and he makes a ton of contact (he has struck out in just 8.3 percent of his 1,513 minor league plate appearances) thanks to his fine hand-eye coordination and bat control.
The question here is when he will get a starting opportunity. The Twins aren't likely to keep him around as a backup when he could be playing every day at Triple-A, and their outfield is full right now. However, all it takes is one injury to open up playing time for Revere, and the steals and batting average production will flow from there. Fantasy owners always feel the need for speed, and Revere can supply that if given the chance.
41. Brett Jackson, OF, Chicago Cubs: A first-round pick in the 2009 draft, the 22-year-old Jackson played the last half of his first full season as a pro at the Double-A level, putting up a combined .395 on-base percentage and .493 slugging percentage, while adding 30 stolen bases. I think Jackson is actually a touch overrated; his overall tools aren't as good as some make them out to be. But it's not just about tools, it's about production, and Jackson has produced thus far and can continue to do so. He can do enough offensively to be a fantasy asset if given regular at-bats this season, with a little pop and a little speed. And although he might have some issues making contact at the upper levels, he does have the bat speed to provide a decent batting average as well.

Jackson has an overall package that fantasy owners should be pretty happy with once he gets a chance to play. There's a bit of a logjam in the Cubs outfield at the moment, so he might have to bide his time a bit. However, he's on the fast track, and his ability to play all three outfield positions enhances his chances of getting playing time in the near future. 42. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Cleveland Indians: The 22-year-old Chisenhall has that proverbial sweet left-handed hitting stroke with a feel for getting the barrel of the bat on pitches. The 2008 first-round pick is the Indians' third baseman of the future, a future that could start sometime in the second half of this season. Long-term, he projects to hit for both average and power, primarily the former, even though he hasn't really had that "eye-opening" minor league season yet (in part because he battled shoulder trouble last year before finishing strong). The Indians have enough options that they can afford to let Chisenhall develop a little more, and according to the team website, he has been told he's not competing for a roster spot this spring. He might be another year away, but he's likely the team's future at third base, and a name to keep on your radar screen, especially given the current lack of quality options the club has at the hot corner.
As long as we're talking about Chisenhall, I should also mention Jared Goedert, a 25-year-old third baseman who hit .283 with 27 homers across the upper levels of the minors last year, including 20 in his last 81 games at Triple-A. However, Goedert had two rough seasons with the bat before that. He might struggle to make consistent contact at the next level, and his defense is not major league-quality yet.
43. Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians: A second-round pick in the 2009 draft, Kipnis is making the transition from the outfield to second base -- a favorable position change for fantasy owners -- and he's handling it well thus far. In his first full professional season, the compactly built Kipnis hit .307 and slugged .492, spending the majority of the year at Double-A before impressing further in the Arizona Fall League. He has a clean, short stroke with solid leverage that generates natural power without overswinging. He's going to pepper the gaps, with a 20-homer season in the big leagues being a possibility.
Kipnis will start the year in the minors, where he'll continue to work on the transition to second base. But his bat is pretty close to being ready to contribute, and veteran acquisition Orlando Cabrera won't stand in his way once Kipnis is deemed ready, which is likely to be at some point this year.
While I'm talking about Chisenhall and Kipnis, I should also mention that the Indians have another couple of prospects close to being ready. Cord Phelps can stick in the big leagues offensively with his doubles power, but his best positions also have Chisenhall and Kipnis on the depth chart, so his role might ultimately be as a quality utility player. That said, he could be a deep sleeper in AL-only leagues until those two are deemed ready. Outfielder Nick Weglarz's offensive profile has drawn some comparisons to Nick Swisher's game, but Weglarz needs to show he can do a better job of staying healthy, and there really isn't room for him at the moment, with his below-average defense not helping him.
44. Devin Mesoraco, C, Cincinnati Reds: Mesoraco, the 15th overall pick in the 2007 draft, finally had his breakout offensive year in his fourth professional season. The delay was partially due to some injury troubles, but the 22-year-old broke out in 2010 by putting up a .322 AVG/.377 OBP/.587 SLG stat line across three levels after not slugging better than .400 in each of his previous pro years. His breakout performance has him on the cusp of the big leagues.
In 2010, Mesoraco reduced the amount of uppercut in his stroke, which allowed him to keep the bat in the hitting zone for a longer time and take better advantage of his bat speed. He'll hit for power in the big leagues, something fantasy owners love from their backstops. There are some questions about the quality of his defense, though. He had problems just catching the ball in the Arizona Fall League, putting up a double-digit passed ball total in just 18 games, but it turns out some finger trouble might have been the culprit. Still, his receiving and blocking does need work despite his strong arm and ability to shut down base stealers. With just the tandem of Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan ahead of him, Mesoraco is just an injury away from getting regular big league at-bats. Even without an injury, he could force the issue by continuing to rake at Triple-A early in the year.

45. Lance Lynn, SP, St. Louis Cardinals: The spring injury to Adam Wainwright certainly put a spotlight on the Cardinals' rotation depth, and even if Lynn isn't part of the big league rotation at the start of the season, the Cardinals likely will need him at some point. A supplemental first-rounder in the 2008 draft, Lynn cruised through Double-A in 2009 with a 2.92 ERA in 22 starts, but had some problems at Triple-A last year while transitioning to more of a four-seam fastball repertoire to give him some more velocity. He was throwing in the mid-90s, though, which actually makes him a little more intriguing despite the poor results initially. He racked up more strikeouts with his new approach, though he also made more mistakes up in the zone, leaving him more prone to home run balls. Still, fantasy owners might not mind him trading sinkers for swings and misses in the overall results. What he really needs is for either his breaking ball or his changeup to take a small step forward so he doesn't have to rely on his fastball so much. That would give him another go-to offering. All told, there's enough here at the moment to make him a sleeper in NL-only play if he earns a rotation spot.
46. Andrew Oliver, SP, Detroit Tigers: Barring an unexpected spring development, Oliver won't start the year in the Tigers' rotation. But he'll likely get an opportunity at some point. Oliver was a second-round pick in the 2009 draft out of Oklahoma State, largely because he was a big, strong southpaw with plus velocity. His four-seam fastball generally sits in 92-94 mph range and can tick a few mph higher. He uses his fastball a lot, throwing it about three-quarters of the time, but he hides the ball well with his three-quarters delivery, which gives him a little deception to add to the velocity.
Oliver's delivery is pretty clean. Although at times he has trouble repeating it, with his front side opening up and his arm coming through late, he should be able to improve that as he develops, and he projects to eventually have above-average fastball command, though he's not there yet. The biggest issue with Oliver is the development and command of his secondary stuff. He used to throw a curveball, but he scrapped it for a slider that was considered below average in college. The slider has shown some decent improvement since Oliver became a pro, but the pitch's break has been inconsistent and not sharp at times. His mid-80s straight changeup is also in development but has shown some potential, and he did a better job of throwing it without slowing his arm in 2010. Oliver simply needs to become more of a pitcher rather than just a thrower.
Among Tigers pitching prospects, Jacob Turner clearly has more upside, is also on a fast track and has a good chance at making his big league debut sometime late this season, but Oliver is likely the first in line should the club need to call up a replacement.
47. Trayvon Robinson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: This 23-year-old switch-hitter just put up his second straight solid season in the minors as he continues to develop his athletic tools into baseball skills. His plate discipline (.404 on-base percentage) and speed (85 steals over the past two years) make him a player to keep an eye on, and he can add a touch more power to his game, too.
Given the Dodgers' plan to go with the unimpressive duo of Jay Gibbons and Marcus Thames in left field, it's certainly plausible that Robinson's growth path has him on track to make a big league impact as soon as later this season. He just needs a little time at Triple-A after spending all of last season in Double-A. The Dodgers also have another prospect capable of playing left field in Jerry Sands, but Robinson is slightly ahead of him at this point. I wrote more extensively about Robinson and talked with his manager, Don Mattingly, about him for this Arizona Fall League blog entry.
48. Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta Braves: One of the best, if not the best, long-term starting pitching prospects in the game, it might seem like a stretch to think that Teheran could make the big leagues this season despite having just seven starts above Class A ball, but if anyone can do it, he can. Braves GM Frank Wren has already talked about the possibility of Teheran pitching in the majors this year, adding the caveat that the team would probably need to have a couple of injuries for him to do so. Since when do starting pitchers get hurt? (Yes, that was sarcasm.)
The 20-year-old righty sits in the mid-90s with his fastball and already shows command of both a changeup and a curve, both already plus pitches, and he can throw strikes with all of them. It's prototypical ace stuff in every respect, and that's exactly what he will be: an ace. It's just a question of when.
Is it too early to expect Teheran to have fantasy impact in 2011? Quite possibly, especially with the Braves having other pitching prospects (such as Brandon Beachy) in front of him. The Braves can afford the luxury of giving their prize arm a little more development time. However, as I've mentioned before, premium talent can accelerate timetables at a premium pace, and make no mistake about it, Teheran is a premium talent. He's worth stashing away, especially in single-league formats, in the hopes of hitting the jackpot.
49. Rudy Owens, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates: Owens has transitioned from being a soft-tossing lefty when he was signed to a 23-year-old who can bring solid, consistent low-90s velocity with a little movement. With his ability to throw strikes, he's like a southpaw version of Kevin Slowey. That combination has put him on our radar screen for this season. He has a career strikeout-to-walk ratio in 354 minor league innings of better than 5-to-1. Owens does not really have an "out" pitch, but he has great command of his fastball and changeup, can move a slurve around in the zone and gets high marks for his ability to stay off the fat part of the plate while still throwing strikes and setting up hitters. That makes his overall repertoire play up, so to speak.

The Pirates are likely to need some starting pitching reinforcements at some point, and Owens is the closest to being ready to contribute as a starter (both to his big league club and a fantasy team) among a group that also includes prospects Bryan Morris, Jeff Locke and Justin Wilson. He's worth monitoring in NL-only play. 50. Robinson Chirinos, C, Tampa Bay Rays: Chirinos spent seven professional seasons as an infielder before being converted to catcher in 2008. Naturally, the 26-year-old still needs a little polish behind the dish, but he has the tools and is already a pretty solid defender. What gets him on this list, though, is Chirinos has mashed the ball in the minors the past three seasons since making the conversion (OPS numbers of .834, .915 and .999), driving the ball to all fields and handling the strike zone very well (more walks than strikeouts in two of those years). At the very least, he will serve as Triple-A insurance behind John Jaso and Kelly Shoppach, with the potential to do some damage at the plate should he get an opportunity, and his ability to play the infield in an emergency situation could help his chances to get on the big league roster. Catchers with offensive potential are always worth monitoring, especially in single-league formats, and Chirinos has high-teens homer potential to go with a usable batting average, if given full-time at-bats.
 

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Closer Report: Craig Kimbrel the real deal
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By Eric Karabell
While I'm still the guy who thinks New York Yankees right-hander Mariano Rivera should be the first closer off the draft board -- though I will never take a closer early -- I'm not blind to the fact that strikeouts are a fantasy statistic in most every league. Rivera, for the million career saves and microscopic WHIP that continues to improve, is not a big strikeout guy. In fact, there were 104 pitchers who registered more strikeouts as relievers than Rivera last year, including "legends" such as Jeff Fulchino, Raul Valdes and just about every Toronto Blue Jays reliever. Still, Rivera finished ninth on the Player Rater among relief pitchers.


Atlanta Braves fireballer Craig Kimbrel is nothing like Rivera. Raw and still occasionally lacking command, Kimbrel is young enough to be Rivera's son, and there's no level of consistency or reliability to depend on. Kimbrel is also not guaranteed the team's closer role, though I suspect a good spring from him will leave lefty Jonny Venters in the eighth inning again. Oh, the other differentiator between arguably the greatest closer of all time and a guy with 20 big league appearances: strikeouts. As in: Kimbrel fanned 40 hitters in just 20 2/3 innings last season. Rivera struck out 45 hitters in 60 innings.
I have Kimbrel ranked just outside my top 10 closers, much higher than any other rankings I can find -- ESPN Fantasy ranks him 20th -- because I think he'll win the job and be awesome, a real difference-maker. Consider that four relief pitchers fanned 100 or more hitters last year (Carlos Marmol, Tyler Clippard, Billy Wagner, Joel Hanrahan). From 2007-09, it was accomplished just five times. Even if Kimbrel isn't a primary closer, his number of strikeouts makes him attractive.
With a mid-90s sinking fastball and excellent curveball, Kimbrel has -- as Jason Grey notes in selecting the right-hander as his No. 6 prospect for 2011 -- unquestionable stuff. I'm selecting Kimbrel as my NL Rookie of the Year pick, following a trend set by recent closers Neftali Feliz and Andrew Bailey. In 151 minor league innings, Kimbrel fanned 242 hitters and allowed just five home runs, boasting a 1.85 ERA. Walks can be a problem, but they weren't for much of September, when he issued three free passes (and fanned 21) in 10 2/3 innings. His major league ERA is 0.44. Find me a relief pitcher in our top 40 with more upside. I like Joe Nathan. I think I like Jonathan Broxton. Perhaps Chris Sale and/or Jake McGee get a chance to close. Aroldis Chapman is obviously a monster in the making, but Kimbrel seems more mature at this point, and with a chance for saves. The minute Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez tips his hand that Kimbrel is his closer, invest heavily. And if Gonzalez chooses Venters? Well, invest in him, too! Venters, with his 93 strikeouts, tied Brian Wilson for fifth among all relievers in K's in 2010.

National League notes


Philadelphia Phillies closer Brad Lidge wasn't even reaching 90 mph on the radar gun earlier this week, and allowed runs in consecutive outings. My take? If it drives his price down, go for it. He's already a borderline top-20 closer, but his 2010 second half is a nice harbinger of good things to come.
• I keep getting asked whether I think San Diego Padres closer Heath Bell will be dealt. Why is this still relevant? I doubt a team would deal for Bell as a setup man, though I suppose one Rafael Soriano injury could change all that. Regardless, draft Bell confidently.
• World Series closer Brian Wilson is dealing with back problems, but there's little indication that this a long-term issue.
• Saw this note buried in the New York papers: Francisco Rodriguez has a vesting option in his contract should he finish 55 games. K-Rod accomplished this each season from 2005-09, and likely would have in 2010 had he not missed the final seven weeks of the season. Sure, Rodriguez could be traded, but as with Bell, he'd likely be someone else's closer. It's not like the Mets have other options and would deliberately use another to close.

• For leagues that require a certain number of starting versus relief pitchers, get Kyle McClellan. I think he'll qualify for both by May.
American League notes


Octavio Dotel is so predictable. The Toronto Blue Jays right-hander got torched the other day, and I wouldn't just call it the spring blues. It's lefty blues! He gets hit hard by left-handed hitters. If Frank Francisco isn't healthy, I believe Jon Rauch is next in line.
• There's nothing wrong with Kansas City Royals closer Joakim Soria, but his next-in-line is debatable. Perhaps it's talented but troubled right-hander Jeremy Jeffress; there's fantasy upside with him. Sean O'Sullivan, Jesse Chavez and Robinson Tejeda are the likely options.
• I don't think there's any question that Matt Thornton leads Chris Sale for the White Sox's ninth-inning role, but right-hander Sergio Santos told the Chicago Sun-Times he would like to become a closer as well. Granted, he told the same newspaper the same thing in May. A former shortstop, Santos has about the most deceptive "good" ERA for a reliever I can find. It was 2.96. His WHIP was 1.52. There's still work to be done here.
Baltimore Orioles right-hander Koji Uehara has a sore elbow. Uh-oh. For our purposes, I've thought all along that Kevin Gregg was the closer. He always finds a way to rack up saves.
 

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