MLB FADE THE PUBLIC 5-GAME CHASE (risk .0075% of bankroll, then 75% of loss martingale)

[HappyKane]

Update:

MIA 25%
WAS 75%

CHC 43%
SF 57%

TB 30%
TOR 70%

Chicago Cubs no longer a qualified CHASE play.

 

[HappyKane]

CHASE 4, 3rd of 5
Marlins +118
$131 to win $154.58

CHASE 6, 1st of 5
Rays +135
$40 to win $54

Locked in TB Rays overnight at +145, $131 to win $189.95. Will use the posted play of $40 for record keeping.

http://i171.photobucket.com/albums/u293/hapkane11/MLB05-26bets.png

 

[HappyKane]

No FADE THE PUBLIC play for May 27.

Next qualified play will be CHASE 6, 2nd of 5.

 

[HappyKane]

The market is verging on the Mets and support for the Pirates may dip below 59% but i am going to make this a play a few hours before first-pitch.

I have surgery [for peritoneal dialysis] in about 5 hours so i will not be able to monitor anyways.

CHASE 6, 2nd of 5
Mets -106
$70 to win $66.04

 

[HappyKane]

No FADE THE PUBLIC play for Thursday, May 29th.

YTD record: 6-0 +$189.99

Next play will be CHASE 7, 1st of 5.

 

[HappyKane]

Looks like we may have 2 FADE THE PUBLIC plays today.

Here are the percentages as of noon Pacific time:

NYM 32%
PHI 68%

CIN 74%
ARI 26%

I will re-check the numbers in about 3 hours.

 

[packer2012]

No FADE THE PUBLIC play for Thursday, May 29th.

YTD record: 6-0 +$189.99

Next play will be CHASE 7, 1st of 5.

I copy the +189. How much do we stand to lose when one of these implodes?

 

[HappyKane]

2 plays for May 30th:

CHASE 7, 1st of 5
Mets +117
$45 to win $52.65

CHASE 8, 1st of 5
Diamondbacks -118
$40 to win $33.90

 

[HappyKane]

I copy the +189. How much do we stand to lose when one of these implodes?

$375 if starting with $40 on the first leg and then martingale 75% of the losses.

Thats why i start the 1st of 5 with less than 1% of my bankroll.

I'm not going to cry over $400 when i have more than $5K to work with.

And i have faith that i will be undefeated by the end of the season.

 

[HappyKane]

Two losers yesterday.

3 possible qualifiers for May 31st.

SD 38%
CWS 62%

BAL 59%
HOU 41%

DET 74%
SEA 26%

CHASE 7 & 8 goes to 2nd leg.

Could start CHASE 9 today if all 3 qualifiers get the green light.

 

[HappyKane]

Looks like there will be 3 plays for Saturday, May 31st.

CHASE 7, 2nd of 5
Padres -124
$79 to win $63.71

CHASE 8, 2nd of 5
Astros -132
$70 to win $53.03

Will lock in the DET/SEA play later today as a possible 3rd leg or new CHASE.

 

[HappyKane]

Got the win with the Padres. But i messed up with the Astros.

Keuchel actually had a bad rating. He's been so good that i actually upgraded him to a good rating.

The correct play would have been the Cubs as Hammel had a good A+ rating and Peralta actually had a bad rating but i upgraded him.

NO PLAY on the Mariners tonight. Detroit is steaming like crazy and i can't trust the Mariners against any lefty.

CHASE 8, 3rd try will have to wait another day.

 

[HappyKane]

Went against my system and missed out on a 3-0 day as the Padres, Cubs and Mariners were the correct "fade the public" plays.

3 "fade the public" plays for Sunday, June 1st:

CHASE 8, 3rd of 5
Royals +145
$123 to win $178.35

CHASE 9, 1st of 5
Mariners +127
$40 to win $50.80

CHASE 10, 1st of 5
Diamondbacks -138
$ 40 to win $28.99

 

[HappyKane]

CHASE 8, 4th of 5
Padres -108
$215 to win $199.07

 

[Skreechy]

What makes you take the royals for 3rd game of 8 instead of the mariners, which you have.as the first game of 9?

 

[HappyKane]

3 qualified "fade the public" plays that went 2-1 yesterday but i opted out because i was very sick. Bad reaction to dialysis treatment.


Got 3 plays for Friday, June 6:


CHASE 10, 2nd of 5
Orioles +100
$70 to win $70

CHASE 11, 1st of 5
Pirates -102
$45 to win $44.12

CHASE 12, 1st of 5
Padres -123
$45 to win $36.59

 

[HappyKane]

1 winner, 2 losers on Friday. System goes to 10-0, up $114.69.

That Oakland/Baltimore game was pretty crazy.

CHASE 10 goes to 3rd try and CHASE 12 goes to 2nd try.

2 possible plays today and as usual, they're tough ones to swallow -- will be betting on Roberto Hernandez and Kevin Gausman today. But hey, it was also hard pulling the trigger on Cumpton against Lohse. Just have to trust the system.

The Phillies/Reds game starts in about 4 hours. I'll be back in 2 or so.

 

[HappyKane]

1st play for June 7:

CHASE 10, 3rd of 5
Phillies +130
$123 to win $159.90

Next 2 possible qualifiers later this evening:

BOS 40% J. Lester
DET 60% M. Scherzer

OAK 75% S. Gray
BAL 25% K. Gausman

BOS will most likely be CHASE 12, 2nd try and BAL will be a new CHASE 13.

 

[HappyKane]

The rest of the day:

CHASE 12, 2nd of 5
Red Sox +115
$80 to win $92

CHASE 13, 1st of 5
Orioles +118
$40 to win $47.20

 

[Ttratter]

where do you you get your % from?