MLB Comp plays

[fletchisrhsm]

Ill be putting up a few comp plays daily here in the run up to football season.


Pittsburgh Pirates (Ian Snell) ML +102


Ian Snell started the season on opening day and because of injuries and just poorly pitched games, Snell finds himself on the brink of getting sent down to AAA much like what happened to Gorzo just a month ago. There is no question Snell has the ability, as he has a 94MPH heater and a plus hard breaking slider and a tight/hard curve. He will be facing a red hot Rockies lineup, so the challenge is great. Snell is just too good of a pitcher not not be able to pull it back together. Yes the Rockies hit and hit well, but this is a Rocky lineup (still without Pirate killer Todd Helton) that has only hit .236 off of Snell in his career and that includes only three hits in 19 AB's combined from Holliday and Atkins. The key will be to keep the speedy Taveras off of base as his OBP against Snell of .588 tells you that has been no easy task. One other thing to note is that Snell actually has an ERA of under 4 this year at home (3.86) as opposed to 1-6 and 8.12 on the road. Couple that with the Rockies being on the road where they hit 35 points lower BA then they do at home and being that against a Right-hander whom they hit 24 points lower then they do lefthanders, this is a great spot for Snell to bounce back.

The Rockies called up Valerio de los Santos to make this spot start tonight as the Rockies are having difficulty finding healthy arms to start games. Santos, not be confused with current Rocky starter Jorge De la Rosa, is 16 year journeyman who has complied an 0-4 record in 7 starts this year in AAA with a 6.62 ERA. Being a soft tossing lefty, with below average stuff this is the exact type of pitcher the predominantly right-handed Pirates lineup should be able to tee off on and get the offense rolling again. The injury to LaRoche doesn’t really matter as he might not have played anyway being left-handed. Look for Rookie phoneme, Steve Pearce to get a start tonight in his place. This is Santos first MLB start since April 9, 2000, when he was with the Milwaukee Brewers. Look for the Pirates to put up some crooked numbers early in this game and should chase Santos quickly.

 

[DoubleJ]

Great write up, and nice to see you Joe!! Looking forward to football season!@!

 

[fletchisrhsm]

:toast: Thanks brother, good to get the second half started on the right note. Snell showed alot of moxie after falling behind 3-0 in the first two innings. Ill post another game for tomorrow.

 

[fletchisrhsm]

Tuesday, July 29

Detroit Tigers (Galarraga) -125


I’m a big fan of the Tigers youngster, right-hander Armando Galarraga. While not possessing a blistering fastball, Galarraga is one of those guys who just knows how to pitch and makes the most of what he has; and what he has is a nasty two seam sinking fastball and a filthy slider witch is his outpitch. Galarraga has held right-handed hitters to a videogame like .141 BAA and with the Indians only able to trot out three left-handed bats with two of them being youngsters Choo and Cabrera… I like Armando’s chances tonight to put the Tribes bats on ice. While Cleveland has been pretty good at home this year they are missing their 2, 3 and 4 hitters from opening day and that includes two of them being left-handed (Hafner and Martinez) and not to mention recently traded Casey Blake, although right-handed he was leading the team in batting before he was traded to the Dodgers just a few days ago. If the Tigers are going to make a run, these are the types of road games that they have to win.


Cleveland will counter with journeyman, Matt Ginter. Ginter has bounced around in his career and the 30 year old and former first round pick seems to have found a home on the lake as he has pitched surprisingly well for the Tribe in his first two starts. That is all about to change tonight. By most opinions the tigers have the best lineup in baseball or at least one of the top three, and after coming off a shutout at the hands of Paul Byrd just last night (who is a high contact pitcher much like Ginter) I look for the Tigers to pound the two pitch Ginter tonight early and often. Ginter relies on changing speeds and has a decent change, but the meat of the Tigers order is too good and too patient to be out finessed by sub par pitching two nights in a row. Galarraga is 6-2 on the road with a 2.69 ERA, look for that to jump to 7-2 with another strong start tonight.



1-0 +1.02 Units

 

[fletchisrhsm]

Wednesday

Chicago Whitesox (Floyd) -110

2-0 + 2.02 Units YTD

 

[fletchisrhsm]

Thursday

MLB YTD: 3 - 0 + 3.02 Units

*I wont lay over $1.50 in Bases, and most cases it will be either a Dog or a small fav, under $1.20... but today is a day where im willing to lay a bit more out there.


Chicago Cubs (Harden) -140

Baseball of all the major sports is the least affected by emotion, at least in the absolute sense of the word. Specifically, if a starting pitcher is on his game and locked in and his stuff is good, he and in most cases his team will be successful no matter who the opponents have in their lineup. So, even though the Brewers are playing their last game of their biggest series in twenty years down 3-0, all they can do is turn to Dave Bush and hope he can go pitch for pitch with Rich Harden, and even if he does, there is no assurance the Brew crews tumultuous bullpen wont muck things up. Bush despite his numbers, is a solid pitcher, but the Cubs hitters up and down the lineup have all had success against him. Also in the Cubs favor is a streaking Alfonso Soriano. Nobody is baseball is more streaky then Soriano and leading off he should make life difficult for Bush. Nothing from the previous days in the form of extra incentive or motivation will affect the outcome of this game, period. The Brewers hitters can do only one thing and that is step into the box and try to hit (in my opinion) the filthiest pitcher in the game.

Rich Hardens fastball is thrown from anywhere from 93-97 mph with as much movement as anyone in baseball. He works in out and down and up with it and even mixes in a solid change and at times a slider. But it’s his splitter that many scouts think is the best in the game. Its been called a “spuckle” because of its characteristics that make it look like both a splitter and a knuckle. If you are facing a guy for the first time who throws this hard, with this much movement and then he drops one of these at you at 79mph, good luck. He was only throwing Fast/Change after coming off the DL, but now that he is feeling healthier he is starting to throw everything in his repertoire according to pitch f/x. All this adds up to trouble for the Brewers. Harden Will probably only go 5-7 innings today, but I have faith in the Cubs pen to hold the lead and get the four game sweep.

 

[DoubleJ]

Great 4-0 start Joey!!:toast:

 

[fletchisrhsm]

Thanks brother, ill have something up for Saturday. :toast:

 

[RiverRat]

Great to see you back Fletch. Hope your enjoying the summer. I can't wait for football $eason. Are you getting a new site up this year? I look forward to your big ballers!