MLB Betting Info - Saturday 4/30

[NewYorkKnight]

Saturday's Weather Report

* There will be a strong 13-15 mile per hour pitchers wind blowing in from center field today in Minnesota when the Twins host the Tigers. The total is currently 8.5.

* It's the opposite in St. Louis for the Cardinals and Nationals, as there is a 9-12 mile per hour hitters wind gusting out to left field. There is also a 91 percent chance of rain and a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. The total is currently 7.0.

* The Windy City should live up to its name Saturday when the Cubs host the Braves. There will be a 13-15 mile per hour hitters wind gusting in from right field. There is also a 95 percent chance of rain. The total is currently 7.0.

* In Pittsburgh, there is a 73 percent chance of and a 7-10 mile per hour wind blowing in from center field for the Pirates game versus the Reds. The total for the game is currently 8.0.

* There is a 31 percent chance of rain and a 6-8 mile her hour wind gusting out to left in Baltimore when the Orioles host the Chicago White Sox. The total is currently 8.5.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Totals Streak

Prior to a disastrous outing his last time out, Blue Jays starter Aaron Sanchez had seen the Under cash in eight of nine starts. He will get the baseball in Friday’s opener at Tampa Bay, a battle of what is two of the top six Under teams in all of baseball. The Rays being a top three Under team is not surprising, but the Jays being in the same stratosphere is. Last year’s #1 offensive team is averaging just 4.0 rpg, which is a middle of the pack 16th in MLB.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Pitching Notes

* Chris Sale has won the 2016 American Cy Young Award. Okay, that may be a bit of premature proclamation, but Sale has been downright filthy thus far winning all five starts thanks to a 1.66 ERA and 0.684 WHIP. His next start is Sunday in Baltimore, a team that has hit 10 home runs in eight home games so far.

* Last year saw Corey Kluber earn the dubious distinction of biggest money-losing starter in all of MLB, by far, at -17.7 units. (No other starter was down more than 11.6). The first three starts of 2016 brought “more of the same” for the one-time Cy Young winner (0-3 TSR), but Kluber’s last time out was a much needed outing where he tossed eight scoreless of three-hit ball vs. Boston. He starts Friday night in Philadelphia and in my mind, the turnaround will continue there for Kluber.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Hitting Notes

* A big reason why St. Louis is lapping the league in runs scored (137) has been the hitting of Aledmys Diaz. Over the last seven days alone, he’s 14 of 23 (.609) with a ridiculous 1.582 OPS. He has a seven-game hit streak entering Thursday night. But, if there’s one guarantee that I can make in this week’s column it’s that Diaz won’t be able to keep this up.

* After a slow start, Mike Trout has started to resemble his old self, at least in the power department. He’s hit four home runs in his last 24 at-bats and will head into Arlington this weekend on an eight-game hit streak. The Rangers have been a favorable opponent in the past for Trout, who has hit .402 with six homers, 18 RBI, 24 runs and a 1.288 OPS the last 25 games against them.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Bottom of the Barrel

The Braves avoided what would have been a four-game sweep at the hands of Boston with 5-3 win Thursday. But they certainly appear to be “up against it” this weekend with a trip to the Windy City to take on the team with – by far- the best run differential in the sport, the Cubs (+74). Atlanta’s record is a MLB-worst 5-17 (-42 in run diff). This will be the biggest mismatch on the board, daily, all weekend long.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Beltway Blues

So much for that fast start to the season for the Nationals. They just suffered the ignominy of being swept at home by the Phillies (shut out last two games) and now have just a one-half game lead over the hard-charging Mets. The Nats head to St. Louis this weekend to play a Cardinals team that might be “only” 12-9 (as of Thursday), but has a +48 run differential (trails only Cubs) after averaging 7.3 runs per game its last seven games. The one thing Washington has going for them in this next series is that Stephen Strasburg will be toeing the rubber in Friday’s opener. Strasburg has a 4-0 TSR and 0.931 WHIP.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Well, It Can’t Be Any Worse Than It Was The Last Time…

It’s never too early in the season to talk about revenge. San Diego (7-15, -7.1 units) will have a big time case of it this weekend when they visit Chavez Ravine to play the Dodgers. If you recall, these two NL West rivals opened the season against one another. The result was a historic, one-sided bludgeoning as the Padres were outscored 25-0 on the wrong end of a three-game sweep. It was the first time in MLB history that one team was shut out in its first three games of the season. While the Padres will certainly be an underdog in all three games this weekend (lost five in a row), note they at least avoid Kenta Maeda (but will draw Clayton Kershaw in the series finale). Be sure to check Thursday’s result for LA as if they lose, that means they’ll be off a series where they got swept as well.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Today's Braves / Cubs game in Chicago has been postponed due to rain. No makeup date yet.



John Lackey - will start Sunday (5/1) vs. Atlanta

 

[NewYorkKnight]

StatFox Super Situations


MLB | COLORADO at ARIZONA
Play Against - Any team (ARIZONA) with a starting pitcher whose gives up 7 or more hits/start, with a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season (NL)
52-23 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.3% | 27.1 units )
0-3 this year. ( 0.0% | -3.2 units )




StatFox Situational Power Trends


MLB | DETROIT at MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 62-45 (+30.8 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: MINNESOTA (4.5) , OPPONENT (4.1)

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Overachieving AL Pitchers
By Joe Nelson


Starting pitching is the biggest component of MLB handicapping and as the first month of the season winds down there are some surprising pitchers off to great starts. Here are a few American League starters with great results through the first few weeks that may be worth fading as their valuation grows.


Mat Latos - Chicago White Sox: Latos looked like one of the NL’s better young pitchers a few years ago with the Padres before having a few moderately successful seasons in Cincinnati. After bouncing around last season with few positive outings, Latos was signed for a very cheap one-year deal by the White Sox last winter. That deal has already paid off with Latos 4-0 with a 0.74 ERA for the surprising White Sox who lead the AL Central.


Three of his four starts have come against three of the five worst scoring teams in the AL at this point and Latos is sporting a FIP nearly three runs higher than his ERA. He has benefitted from an unbelievable .167 BABIP in allowing just 13 hits in over 24 innings of work while producing just 13 strikeouts. With matchups with the Orioles, Red Sox and Rangers in the next few weeks, Latos and the rest of the White Sox pitching staff could see lesser results ahead.


Ian Kennedy - Kansas City Royals: The 2015 World Series champions didn’t make much of an off-season splash with the signing of Kennedy being one of the biggest moves. Kennedy has good numbers through four starts with a 2.77 ERA and 23 strikeouts, but he faced struggling Minnesota and Houston offenses in his first two outings. The numbers have deteriorated a bit in his last two starts and he has already walked nine batters in 26 innings of work. Kennedy has been fortunate to allow only 20 hits this season while standing runners on base at an extremely high rate.


After posting marginal numbers pitching for San Diego the past two seasons, Kennedy isn’t likely to find better results this season moving back to the AL. In the early going, Kansas City’s great bullpen hasn’t been as effective as the past two seasons as the prices on Kennedy may be a bit too high in certain matchups ahead.


Jordan Zimmermann - Detroit Tigers: Zimmermann didn’t endear himself to Tigers fans over the winter as the Wisconsin native made a celebratory tweet after the improbable Packers win over the Lions, but given his first month results all may be forgiven. Zimmermann is 4-0 with a miniscule 0.35 ERA in his move to the AL after several successful but often injury plagued seasons with Washington. Zimmermann only has 16 strikeouts in 26 innings and he has allowed 22 hits despite allowing just one earned run in four starts.


Zimmermann’s past results command respect on the betting line, but his tiny ERA may push those prices even higher even with the Tigers looking like an erratic group in the first month of the season. Zimmermann should have a good season, but he isn’t likely to stay on the Cy Young radar for much longer and fading him while his numbers are among the best in the league will present the best value.


Cole Hamels – Texas Rangers: Hamels is 3-0 this season with the Rangers with a solid 2.52 ERA and a pretty strong strikeout rate. This was after fairly mixed results joining the Rangers last August for the playoff push. Quality starting pitchers don’t sign with the Rangers as the ballpark has been known to take a toll which is why the Rangers were willing to give up so much to get Hamels last summer with his contract going through 2018. So far this season it looks like a shrewd move as Hamels has handled being the staff ace until Yu Darvish can return even though the 2015 AL West champions have had inconsistent results so far this season.


Hamels owns a FIP of 5.14 through four starts, or more than twice his ERA, as he has lacked the precise control he has enjoyed much of his career, already walking 11 so far this season. Hamels has allowed four home runs and 20 hits despite surrendering only seven runs in 25 innings of work as he has been pretty fortunate in the early going. Hamels is capable of having a solid season even in Arlington, but he will look like a risk as a heavy favorite in a ballpark where scoring is commonplace especially with a couple of teams that can handle left-handers in the division.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Overachieving NL Pitchers
By Joe Nelson


Starting pitching is the biggest component of MLB handicapping and as the first month of the season winds down there are some surprising pitchers off to great starts. Here are a few National League starters with great results through the first few weeks that may be worth fading as their valuation grows.


Jason Hammel - Chicago Cubs: With Jake Arrieta’s continued dominance and veterans Jon Lester and John Lackey behind him the Cubs rotation looks formidable. There are some questions on the backend but so far this season, Jason Hammel has delivered great results for the Cubs with a 3-0 record and a 0.75 ERA that is among the best marks in baseball. The 33-year old has bounced around through four organizations while never winning more than 10 games in a season and it looks unlikely that 2016 will be his breakthrough season.


Hammel has been fortunate in the early going stranding over 92 percent of base runners and his xFIP is more than 4 times higher than his ERA. Hammel has walked nine batters in 24 innings of work and he won’t get to face a Reds lineup that he has 12 scoreless innings against all season. On a loaded Cubs team, Hammel can continue to provide useful innings but with Chicago’s great record, Hammel is likely to face favorite valuation that he won’t deserve.


Gio Gonzalez - Washington Nationals: In his first season with the Nationals in 2012, Gonzalez won 21 games with a 2.89 ERA to finish 3rd in the Cy Young voting. He has just 33 wins in the three-plus seasons since producing rather average results that have worsened slightly each season. Gonzalez was never suspended, but he was linked to the Biogenesis documents and now on the wrong side of 30 it seems unlikely that Gonzalez will ever reemerge as a frontline starter.


Washington and Gonzalez have had a great April, but they have faced an incredibly weak schedule and the four starts for Gonzalez have come against the Braves, Phillies, and Twins with three of those four starts at home. Gonzalez has 25 strikeouts in just over 25 innings of work, but he has benefitted from a .243 BABIP at this point in the season and it feels like an unsustainable pace for the left-hander who will face much tougher lineups in the coming weeks.


Jimmy Nelson - Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers aren’t expected to hold up well in the loaded NL Central, but Nelson has been a bright spot in the 8-12 start through 20 games. Nelson won 11 games last season in making 30 starts for a struggling team and in five outings in 2016 he owns solid numbers with a 3.16 ERA with 25 strikeouts. He is walking more than four batters per nine innings and he owns a FIP of 5.35, more than two runs higher than his ERA at this point in the season. Nelson has allowed at least two runs in every start as he has rarely been dominant and he has already allowed six home runs.


Nelson is just 26 and he may continue to be the best option in the Milwaukee rotation, but he will likely earn the highest line valuation of the Milwaukee starters as well. With a manageable schedule in the month of May, he may continue to be viable for a few more weeks but don’t expect to see Nelson among the NL pitching leaders by season’s end.


Ross Stripling - Los Angeles Dodgers: With the many early season injuries on the Los Angeles pitching staff, Stripling has had a chance to join the rotation this and he has made the most of it. The 26-year old right-hander didn’t enter the season as even one of the top 10 prospects for the club and he has never even pitched at the AAA level after mediocre results moving up from A to AA in the middle of last season. Stripling might never have even made the big leagues if not for all the holes in the rotation and he incredibly got 22 outs in his major league debut without allowing a hit. He was pulled from the game and no-hitter was lost by the bullpen and predictably the results have been less impressive in this three starts since.


Since his great debut start, Stripling has allowed 19 hits in 15 innings and he has allowed more than four walks per nine innings. He doesn’t get a great deal of ground balls as it is surprising that he has only allowed one home run but making three of his four starts at Dodger Stadium and AT&T Park helps the cause. Hyun-Jin Ryu and Michael Bolsinger are poised to return to the club in the coming weeks with Brandon McCarthy a possibility to be back mid-summer as well as Stripling isn’t likely to keep this position much longer regardless of the results.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Preview: Blue Jays (10-13) at Rays (10-11)


Game: 2
Venue: Tropicana Field
Date: April 30, 2016 6:10 PM EDT


It took five starts for Chris Archer to make it six innings and set his team up for a win. J.A. Happ's encouraging return to the AL is a start away from reaching that length with nothing but consistency.


The Tampa Bay Rays ace and the Toronto Blue Jays returnee face off Saturday night at Tropicana Field as the visitors try to secure a series win.


Archer (1-4, 5.47 ERA) lost his first four starts before limiting Baltimore to five hits in 6 2/3 innings of Monday's 2-0 home win. Catcher Curt Casali said working in an effective changeup was key to throwing hitters off. In his career, he's thrown it 6.6 percent of the time, but he's at 11.1 this year.


"I think the book has become fastball-slider, those are his money pitches," Casali told MLB's official website. "But as you guys saw tonight, he can definitely mix in that changeup, and that opens up a whole other window for him."


The right-hander struck out 10 - four of the first five on that changeup - and walked none after issuing 11 in 19 2/3 innings of his first four outings.


"Baseball presents challenges like that all the time," Archer said. "... That's why baseball is such a beautiful game. Anything can happen on any night. That's why you don't dwell on what happened yesterday. You just look forward and trust that you're going to have positive results all the time."


He opened the season against the Blue Jays, giving up three runs - two earned - and five hits with 12 strikeouts in five innings of a 5-3 home loss on April 3. Archer issued three walks and racked up 107 pitches to fall to 0-3 with a 6.10 ERA in his last four starts in the series after opening his career against Toronto 5-1 with a 2.51 through 12 starts.


Russel Martin (2 for 14), Michael Saunders (1 for 7), Jose Bautista (5 for 34), Josh Donaldson (3 for 20), Edwin Encarnacion (6 for 39) and Ryan Goins (3 for 19) are hitting a combined .150 against Archer.


He might need to be in that ballpark to beat Happ (3-0, 2.42), who pitched for Toronto from 2012-14 before splitting time with Seattle and Pittsburgh last year. The left-hander has won his last three starts after a no-decision in his opener in Tampa.


Happ gave up a season-high three runs and seven hits in seven innings of last Saturday's 9-3 home win over Oakland.


"The common denominator in every start is if I fill up the strike zone, I'm pretty successful," Happ said.


Happ is 0-1 with a 2.08 ERA in his last four starts against the Rays after starting his career 2-1 with a 6.75 mark in five starts and a relief appearance.


Logan Morrison (7 for 14), Evan Longoria (8 for 21) and Steve Pearce (8 for 22 with three home runs) have all hit him well, but Logan Forsythe is 2 for 16.


The Blue Jays (11-13) opened the three-game series with Friday's 6-1 victory, snapping a three-game losing streak with some respectable offense after being limited to a run and eight hits in their previous two games. Saunders is batting .400 in his last seven.


The Rays (10-12) are now the team sputtering at the plate with two runs scored in consecutive losses while batting .202 in their last four. Morrison is still seeking his first multihit game and is batting .100 with eight total bases, but Forsythe is hitting .419 in his last eight.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Preview: Reds (9-13) at Pirates (13-9)


Game: 2
Venue: PNC Park
Date: April 30, 2016 7:05 PM EDT


The perfect draw for a struggling pitching staff right now might be the Cincinnati Reds' slumping lineup. The right matchup to keep offensive production flowing may be their pitchers, too.


The Pittsburgh Pirates will get another crack at both Saturday night when they go for their sixth straight win while trying to hand the visiting Reds as many losses in a row.


Both sides of the equation held up in Pittsburgh's series-opening 4-1 victory Friday night, its third straight at PNC Park. Home runs from Josh Harrison and Matt Joyce were more than enough as the Pirates (14-9) held the Reds to six hits.


Cincinnati (9-14) has lost seven of eight games, totaling 10 runs in the losses - just the right medicine for a Pirates' staff that surrendered 32 earned runs in its previous six contests.


Maybe the ugliest pitching line in that stretch came from Francisco Liriano's last start on Sunday, though the left-hander was pleased with his stuff.


Three of the four runs he gave up came off two early homers, but Liriano (1-1, 4.64 ERA) settled down to hold Arizona to four runs in six innings of an eventual 12-10, 13-inning win.


"Location-wise, everything was a lot more sharp. It was working a lot better down in the zone," Liriano told MLB's official website. "Just get ahead in the count and not try to do too much. That got better at the end."


Liriano continued to struggle with his command, walking three to give him 17 free passes through his first four starts. After tossing six innings of three-hit ball in a 4-1 opening day win over St. Louis, he has allowed 16 hits and 11 runs - nine off five homers - in 15 1/3 innings his last three outings.


While Liriano hopes he can continue to improve, Pittsburgh's lineup looks to keep rolling against the Reds, who have lost 13 of 17 since taking two of three from the Pirates April 8-10.


Harrison's fourth-inning solo homer in the opener was his first since May 15, snapping a drought of 379 at-bats. Joyce's two-run shot in the seventh inning was his third in 28 at-bats and raised his batting average to .357 after he signed a minor league contract in spring training following a miserable 2015 with the Los Angeles Angels.


The Pirates have hit nine home runs in their last four games and have averaged 12.6 hits and 8 runs during their winning streak - numbers that could keep climbing against the scuffling Alfredo Simon.


Simon (0-2, 16.39) skipped a turn in Cincinnati's rotation due to biceps tendinitis but returned Sunday by surrendering eight runs and 10 hits over 2 2/3 innings in a 9-0 loss to the Chicago Cubs.


"The good news is his arm is feeling better, but the result wasn't very good," manager Bryan Price told MLB's official website. "We have to get him back to being sharp down in the strike zone ... to give us a chance to keep the pitch count down and keep our starters in the game."


The right-hander only pitched long enough to qualify for a win in his first start while combining for 4 1/3 innings his last three outings - two starts and a relief appearance. His ERA is an astronomical 33.23 in that span after giving up 17 hits, four of them homers.


Simon is 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA in four starts at PNC Park.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Preview: White Sox (16-7) at Orioles (13-8)


Game: 3
Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Date: April 30, 2016 7:05 PM EDT


Despite his rocky 2015 season, the Chicago White Sox took a flier on Mat Latos in hopes he could bounce back enough to contribute at the back end of the rotation.


The veteran right-hander has instead gotten off to one of the majors' best starts.


Latos has an opportunity to become the first pitcher to win his first five starts with the White Sox in 13 years Saturday night when Chicago seeks a rare road victory over the power-hitting Baltimore Orioles.


Chicago's gamble on Latos certainly appears to be paying off after the 28-year-old went 4-10 with a career-worst 4.95 ERA for three teams last season. He's unexpectedly played a key role on a pitching staff that owns an AL-best 2.62 ERA.


Latos turned in a strong outing Sunday, allowing one run over six innings in a 4-1 win over Texas. Only Detroit's Jordan Zimmermann has a lower ERA than his 0.74.


Latos can join Jake Arrieta of the Cubs and teammate Chris Sale as the majors' only pitchers with 5-0 records, and he also has a chance to become the first pitcher to win his first five starts with the White Sox (16-8) since Esteban Loaiza in 2003.


"My plan is to go out there and attack and throw strikes and put zeros up on the board," Latos told MLB's official website. "Every fifth day I go out there, I want to command the zone down, I want to mix my slider for strikes, I want to throw the curveball over for strikes, throw the split in there when I need to."


Perhaps most importantly, he'll try to help Chicago avoid a season high-tying third straight loss after dropping the first two of this four-game set at Camden Yards.


In his only career start versus Baltimore, Latos gave up five runs and 10 hits over five innings in a 5-4 road loss Sept. 2, 2014 while with Cincinnati. Pedro Alvarez has faced Latos the most of any Orioles batter, going 8 for 29 with two home runs.


The Orioles (14-8) have totaled 16 runs and 23 hits against Chicago's previously outstanding staff. Nolan Reimold delivered a three-run homer in the seventh inning of Friday's 6-3 victory that gave the club its 12th win in the past 16 home meetings.


Reimold is batting .355 with three homers in 13 games for Baltimore, which is hitting .295 with 14 home runs during a MLB-best 9-1 start at Camden.


"He's been a real contributor," manager Buck Showalter said. "It's the first time, I don't want to say (he's) completely healthy, but healthy (enough) to show what he's capable of."


Manny Machado is 19 for 41 while hitting safely in all 10 at home. He's also batting .375 with two home runs and five doubles in his last 10 there against the White Sox.


Baltimore hopes to keep scoring for right-hander Kevin Gausman, who allowed one run while striking out seven over five innings in Monday's 2-0 loss at Tampa Bay. He hasn't allowed a run over two innings in a pair of relief appearances versus Chicago.


Jose Abreu has heated up, going 7 for 17 over his last four games. On Friday, Brett Lawrie hit his 12th career home run against the Orioles - his most against any team.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Preview: Indians (10-9) at Phillies (12-10)


Game: 2
Venue: Citizens Bank Park
Date: April 30, 2016 7:05 PM EDT


Coming into his team's series with the Cleveland Indians, catcher Cameron Rupp insisted the Philadelphia Phillies were setting out to put all the talk of tanking to rest.


They certainly aren't playing like a team interested in another last-place finish.


Jerad Eickhoff will try to add to an outstanding run on the mound Saturday night when the host Phillies chase their fifth straight win and eighth in the past nine games.


After finishing at the bottom of the NL East the past two seasons, Philadelphia (13-10) appeared to be in rebuilding mode with several young and inexperienced players.


The Phillies, however, have won 13 of 19 since dropping their first four games, leading Rupp to say, 'A lot of people write us off saying we don't want to win. That's not true."


The club has been sparked by a formidable pitching staff that has a 1.42 ERA during a four-game winning streak. The bullpen pitched six scoreless innings before Ryan Howard hit a walk-off home run in Friday's 4-3, 11-inning series-opening win.


"There's a different energy and all that began in spring training," Howard said.


Now they'll give the ball to Eickhoff in hopes he can find the command on his normally devastating breaking ball. After allowing two runs while striking out 18 over 14 innings in his previous two starts, the 25-year-old was tagged for seven runs and nine hits - including two home runs - over 5 1/3 innings in Sunday's 8-5 loss at Milwaukee.


According to MLB's official website, Eickhoff (1-3, 4.07 ERA) had given up only two extra-base hits on curveballs in 11 career starts before Ryan Braun hit a solo home run on a 1-2 curve and Kirk Nieuwenhuis ripped a two-run single on an 0-2 breaking ball.


"If I get beat on my curveball, I'll live with it," the right-hander explained.


Now Eickhoff will have to be cautious with Jason Kipnis, who might want to consider playing in the NL someday. The two-time All-Star infielder hit a two-run home run Friday and has a .426 average with 10 extra-base hits and 10 RBIs in his last 11 interleague games.


He's also 4 for 8 with two homers and five RBIs in his past two games at Philadelphia.


The Indians hope to avoid their fourth loss in five games since sweeping Detroit to open this nine-game trip. They had averaged 6 runs and hit .298 in their previous five games before finishing with six hits and putting just four runners in scoring position Friday.


Cleveland looks to get regroup offensively for Trevor Bauer (1-0, 4.76), who comes out of the bullpen to start in place of injured Carlos Carrasco. The right-hander had allowed six runs and 13 hits over 11 1/3 innings in six relief appearances.


He'll try to keep center fielder Odubel Herrera off the bases. The leadoff man is batting .338 with a .494 on-base percentage while reaching safely in 20 consecutive contests.


Carlos Santana, who is 10 for 26 on the road swing, could get an opportunity to play in right field with the designated hitter spot not available at Citizens Bank Park.


The Indians (10-10) have dropped five of the six all-time meetings at Philadelphia after closer Cody Allen surrendered Howard's shot and fell to 0-3 with a 6.97 ERA.


'(Saturday) it will be over and I'll be ready to pitch,' Allen said.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Preview: Yankees (8-12) at Red Sox (12-10)


Game: 2
Venue: Fenway Park
Date: April 30, 2016 7:10 PM EDT


Rick Porcello's fifth win last year came after the Fourth of July. This year, he has a chance to do it before May.


The right-hander will try to tie the major league lead in victories Saturday night when the Boston Red Sox face the New York Yankees at Fenway Park.


Porcello (4-0, 3.51 ERA) could become the first pitcher to win all five of his starts in April with an ERA above 3.00 since Chien-Ming Wang did it with the Yankees in 2008.


He needed 17 starts to get his fifth win in 2015.


Porcello got No. 4 on Monday, yielding four hits with six strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings of a 1-0 win at Atlanta after entering with a 4.66 ERA.


"It feels good that I'm not out there searching for something and trying to make an adjustment during a game," said Porcello, alluding to finding the right arm slot during spring training and maintaining it.


Porcello is 4-2 with a 2.75 ERA over his last eight starts against the Yankees. He had a career-high 13 strikeouts while allowing three runs - one earned - in eight innings of a 3-1 loss in his only start against them at Fenway on Sept. 1.


New York (8-13) hasn't been much of a threat offensively of late, batting .207 while being outscored 17-5 during a three-game slide.


The Yankees were held to six hits and David Ortiz belted a tiebreaking two-run shot in the eighth inning of Friday's 4-2 win in the opener of this three-game series.


Ortiz, who was 2 for 4, reveled in the clutch performance against AL East rival New York, which has lost 11 of 15.


"When you're playing at home and the adrenaline's flying all over the place when you're playing against the Yankees, when something like this happens you enjoy it," he said.


Ortiz is batting .343 with seven extra-base hits and eight RBIs over his past nine games. However, he's 3 for 15 with five strikeouts against scheduled starter Michael Pineda (1-2, 6.95).


Pineda has the third-highest qualifying ERA in the AL, and he's looking to bounce back from one of the worst performances of his career.


The right-hander retired the first two batters before being tagged for five runs and six hits - two homers - in the opening inning Sunday. He gave up two more runs and as many homers over the next four while finishing with nine strikeouts in an 8-1 loss to Tampa Bay.


"He didn't have the movement on (the fastball), he didn't have the cut on it," manager Joe Girardi told MLB's official website. "For whatever reason, he didn't have it. Obviously, his slider was pretty good, he had nine strikeouts. The four homers, too? It doesn't make a lot of sense, but the lack of movement on his fastball and lack of location is what killed him."


Pineda had all sorts of trouble in his last start against the Red Sox (13-10) on Sept. 29, surrendering seven runs and two homers in six innings of a 10-4 home loss.


Perhaps a change of venue can help. He's got a 1.42 ERA while winning his last three starts at Fenway after yielding one run and fanning seven in six innings opposite Porcello on Sept. 1.


Alex Rodriguez has hit solo homers in consecutive games and is 5 for 9 with two doubles and three RBIs in his past three.


'If you told me 10 years ago that Big Papi and I would be hitting home runs at 40, I probably would've laughed,' Rodriguez said. 'But winning the game is the most important thing.'

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Five to Follow MLB Betting: Saturday, April 30, 2016, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews


Does Major League Baseball have a performance-enhancing drug problem again? Last week, Blue Jays first baseman Chris Colabello was hit with an 80-game suspension for testing positive for PEDs. Then on Thursday, Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon, the reigning NL batting and stolen base champion, also was hit with an 80-game ban. He didn't only test positive for one banned substance but two. Of course, Gordon said he did not knowingly take PEDs. Ha ha. Maybe he got them from the team's hitting coach Barry Bonds? Sorry, couldn't resist. Gordon is batting .266 with six stolen bases this season. I give the Marlins little chance of being a wild-card team now, not that I gave them a huge one before this. Too bad as Miami just impressively swept a four-game series at the Los Angeles Dodgers to approach .500 after a terrible start.




Tigers at Twins (+110, 8.5)


First pitch of Saturday at 2:10 p.m. ET. Been a rough week for the Twins, sending top prospect Byron Buxton to Triple-A and then starting pitchers Ervin Santana and Kyle Gibson to the disabled list. They will have their work cut out against them here vs. Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann (4-0, 0.35), the MLB leader in ERA. His season-opening scoreless streak ended at 24 1/3 innings on Monday against the A's -- the longest ever for a pitcher at the start of his Tigers career -- but he allowed just one run in 6.2 innings. Only a couple of Twins have ever faced the former National Leaguer. It's Tyler Duffey for Minnesota. He made his season debut Sunday in Washington and allowed one run and five hits over four innings. Duffey was hit in the shoulder by a line drive but is expected to go here. Detroit's Miguel Cabrera is 2-for-5 off him. Nick Castellanos is 3-for-6 with two doubles.


Key trends: The Tigers are 1-4 in their past five Saturday games. The Twins are 8-2 in Duffey's past 10 starts. The "over/under" has gone under in four of Duffey's past five vs. the AL Central.


Early lean: Tigers and under.


Braves at Cubs (-215, TBA)


A 2:20 p.m. ET matinee from Wrigley. The Cubs are going to be down two starters but did get good MRI results on the ankle of star third baseman Kris Bryant. The reigning NL Rookie of the Year rolled his ankle in Thursday's win. An MRI confirmed a minor sprain, and he'll miss a few games. Bryant is hitting .289 with four homers and 15 RBIs. Also, catcher Miguel Montero was placed on the DL with back issues and he was to have an MRI. The Cubs might have to trade for a catcher if that's a longer-term thing with Kyle Schwarber already out for the year. Chicago starts John Lackey (3-1, 4.97) here. He has been inconsistent thus far and was rocked for six runs and seven hits over 5.2 innings last time out in Cincinnati. He is 1-1 with a 2.76 ERA in three career starts against the Braves. Nick Markakis is a career .338 hitter off him in 68 at-bats. Atlanta starts Julio Teheran (0-3, 4.60), a guy often linked in trade rumors to the Cubs. After a shaky start to the season, Teheran has been much better his past two starts. Anthony Rizzo is 2-for-13 off him with a homer.


Key trends: The Braves are 1-8 in Teheran's past nine road starts vs. teams with a winning record. The over is 12-2-2 in his past 16 on the road. Atlanta is 5-0 in his past five vs. the Cubs.


Early lean: Braves -- Cubs are missing some bats and Lackey hasn't been trustworthy yet.


Blue Jays at Rays (-128, 7.5)


I'll be very interested to see what Rays ace Chris Archer (1-4, 5.47) looks like here. Since last Aug. 31, the All-Star had been 0-7 with a 6.39 ERA. Through his first four starts in 2016, Archer was 0-4 with a 7.32 ERA and 2.09 WHIP and batters were hitting .345 off him. Really shocking numbers because it's not like Archer's stuff still wasn't excellent. The Rays had to be relieved when Archer dominated the Orioles on Monday, shutting them out on five hits over 6.2 innings and striking out 10. Archer pitched Opening Day at home vs. Toronto and struck out 12 in five innings but took the loss in allowing three runs in five innings. Jose Bautista is 5-for-34 career off him with a homer. Edwin Encarnacion is 6-for-39 off him but has three homers. It's lefty J.A. Happ (3-0, 2.42) for the Jays. He pitched April 6 at Tampa Bay and allowed two runs and seven hits over six innings. He is 1-1 with a 6.46 ERA in six starts at Tropicana Field. Evan Longoria is 8-for-21 with two doubles off him. Steve Pearce has three homers in 22 at-bats.


Key trends: The Rays are 0-4 in Archer's past four following a quality start in his last appearance. The under is 5-0 in Happ's past five on the road. The under is 3-1-1 in Archer's past five at home.


Early lean: Blue Jays and under.


White Sox at Orioles (-115, 8.5)


If the Pale Hose have a lead in the bottom of the ninth here, Nate Jones likely will on the mound as closer David Robertson has been placed on the bereavement list after the death of his father-in-law. Robertson leads the AL with eight saves. He has an 0.87 ERA with 13 strikeouts and a .152 opponents' batting average. The Sox start ace Mat Latos here. Yes, I said ace. Obviously Chris Sale is the ace, but Latos (4-0, 0.74) has been ridiculous. He has gone at least six innings in all four starts and allowed just one earned run in two of those. Pedro Alvarez has faced him by far the most of any Oriole and is 8-for-29 with two homers and six RBIs. Baltimore's Kevin Gausman (0-1, 1.80) started the year in the minors to rehab his shoulder and was solid in his season debut for the Orioles on Monday, allowing one run and three hits at Tampa Bay. The Sox's Austin Jackson is 2-for-5 with two doubles off him.


Key trends: The Orioles are 5-2 in Gausman's past seven at home. The over is 10-3-3 in Chicago's past 10 on Saturday.


Early lean: Orioles and over -- Latos' success isn't sustainable.


Rockies at Diamondbacks (-175, 8.5)


Colorado demoted struggling starter Jordan Lyles earlier this week, so lefty Chris Rusin (1-0, 2.45) comes in from the bullpen to start here. He has allowed three runs and six hits, no homers, over 11 innings in four appearances this year. He was largely a starter in 131.2 innings last year and was 6-10 with a 5.33 ERA. Rusin lost his only start vs. Arizona, allowing three runs (one earned) in six innings. David Peralta is 2-for-3 with a double and two RBIs off him. Paul Goldschmidt has two singles in five at-bats. Just when it looked like Arizona's Zack Greinke (2-2, 6.16) had put his early-season struggles behind him, he was raked for seven runs and 11 hits in 6.2 innings last time out vs. St. Louis yet won the game. His Diamondbacks debut on April 4, he allowed seven runs and nine hits over four innings vs. the Rockies, with rookie Trevor Story homering twice off him. Greinke has a 9.72 ERA in three home starts and 1.93 on the road.


Key trends: The Rockies are 1-10 in Rusin's past 11 road starts. Arizona is 1-4 in its past five at home vs. a lefty. The over is 4-1 in Rusin's past five vs. the NL West.


Early lean: Diamondbacks and over.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

MLB


Saturday's games


National League games


Braves @ Cubs
Teheran is 0-3, 5.40 in his last four starts (over 3-1-1 in starts this year).


Lackey is 3-1, 4.97 in four starts this starts; Cubs scored 33 runs for him. Three of the four games went over. .


Braves lost nine of their last ten games; five of their last seven road games went over the total. Cubs won six of last seven games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. .


Reds @ Pirates
Simon is 0-2, 16.88 in three starts this month (over 2-0-1). .


Liriano is 0-1, 6.46 in his last three starts (over 3-0).


Reds are 1-9 on the road; over is 5-3-1 in their last nine games overall. Pirates are 9-3 in their last 12 games; over is 11-4 in their last 15 games.


Giants @ Mets
Cain is 0-2, 7.80 in his last three starts (over 2-2). .


deGrom is 2-0, 1.54 in two starts this month (over 1-1).


Giants won five of their last seven games; seven of their last eight went over total. Mets won their last seven games; four of their last six games stayed under. .


Marlins @ Brewers
Chen is 1-1, 3.15 in his last three starts (over 2-2).


Anderson is 0-2, 8.40 in his last three starts (over 3-0-1).


Marlins won their last six games; over is 5-2-1 in their last ight games. Milwaukee lost five of its last six games; over is 4-1-2 in their last seen games.


Nationals @ Cardinals
Ross is 2-0, 0.54 in three starts (under 3-0), but he missed his last 1.5 starts with a blister on his pitching hand.


Garcia is 1-1, 2.84 in his last three starts (over 2-2).


Washington lost three of last four games; under is 4-1-1 in its last six road contests. Cardinals won four of their last six games (over 6-0). .


Rockies @ Diamondbacks
Rusin is making his first '16 start; he is 11-19, 5.05 in 42 career MLB starts, 6-10, 5.33 in 22 starts last year


Greinke is 1-2, 9.72 in three home starts for Arizona; three of his last four starts stayed under the total. .


Colorado lost seven of its last nine games; six of its last eight road games stayed under. Arizona is just 4-10 at home- six of their last eight games went over the total


Padres @ Dodgers
Rea is 1-1, 5.76 in four starts this year (over 3-1).


Stripling is 0-1, 3.63 in four starts this month (under 3-0-1).


Dodgers lost six of last seven home games; under is 7-3-1 in their home games. San Diego lost five of last six games; over is 9-3 in their last 12 games.




American League games


White Sox @ Orioles
Latos is 4-0, 0.74 in four starts (under 4-0).


Gausman allowed one run in five IP (91 PT) in his first '16 start.


Orioles are 9-1 at home- eight of their last 11 games stayed under the total. Chicago won eight of its last 11 games; under is 8-5 in its last thirteen road games.


Bronx @ Red Sox
Pineda is 0-2, 6.35 in his last three starts (over 3-1).


Porcello is 4-0, 3.51 in four starts this month (over 2-2).


Bronx lost seven of its last ten games; under is 8-4 in their last 12. Red Sox won seven of their last eight games; seven of their last ten games stayed under the total.


Blue Jays @ Rays
Happ is 3-0, 2.25 in his last three starts (over 2-1-1).


Archer is 1-2, 3.18 in three home starts this month (under 3-2 in '16 starts). Tampa Bay scored five runs in his three home starts. .


Toronto lost six of its last nine games; their last ten road games stayed under total. Tampa Bay won four of last six home games; under is 11-1 in its last dozen games at the Trop.


Angels @ Rangers
Shoemaker is 1-3, 7.36 in his last four starts (over 2-2).


Holland is 2-1, 2.50 in his last three starts (under 2-1-1).


Angels won four of their last six games; under is 10-2 in their last 12. Texas won seven of its last eight home games; six of their last seven games overall stayed under.


Tigers @ Twins
Zimmerman is 4-0, 1.04 in four starts this month (over 2-2).


Duffey allowed one run four IP (74 PT) in his first '16 start.


Detroit won four of its last five games; six of their last seven games went over total. Minnesota lost five of its last six games; over is 8-2 in their last ten.


Astros @ A's
Deverski is making first MLB start; he's allowed one run in 13.2 IP in six relief stints this season. He was 7-4, 3.01 in 17 starts in AA Texas League LY.


Hahn is making first '16 start; he is 13-10, 3.23 in 28 big league starts. He was 0-1, 2.04 in four AAA starts this month. .


Houston lost seven of its last eight road games; over is 10-3 in its road tilts. Oakland lost five of its last seven games; under is 6-3 in its last nine home games.


Royals @ Mariners
Ventura is 2-0, 2.35 in four starts this month (under 3-1).


Miley is 1-2, 7.04 in four starts this month (over 2-2).


Royals lost their last six road games; seven of their last nine games overall stayed under the total. Mariners won seven of their last nine home games; three of their last five games went over the total.




Interleague


Indians @ Phillies
Bauer is making first '16 start; he allowed six runs in six relief stints (11.1 IP) so far this year. He has a 19-24, 4.50 big league record, in 64 starts.


Eickhoff is 1-3, 4.44 in four starts this month (over 3-1).


Cleveland won six of its last nine road games; four of its last six games went over the total. Phillies won seven of last eight games; fivd of their last seven home games went over the total.




Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:


Atl-Chi-- Teheran 0-5; Lackey 3-1
Cin-Pitt-- Simon 0-3; Liriano 3-1
SF-NY-- Cain 1-3; deGrom 2-0
Mia-Mil-- Chen 1-3; Anderson 2-2
Wsh-StL-- Ross 3-0; Garcia 2-2
Col-Az-- Rusin 0-0; Greinke 3-2
SD-LA-- Rea 2-2; Stripling 2-2


Chi-Balt-- Latos 4-0; Gausman 0-1
NY-Bos-- Pineda 0-4; Porcello 4-0
Tor-TB-- Happ 3-1; Archer 1-4
LA-Tex-- Shoemaker 1-3; Holland 2-2
Det-Min-- Zimmerman 4-0; Duffey 0-1
Hst-A's-- Devenski 0-0; Hahn 0-0
KC-Sea-- Ventura 4-0; Miley 2-2


Clev-Phil-- Bauer 0-0; Eickhoff 1-3




Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:


Atl-Chi-- Teheran 1-5; Lackey 2-4
Cin-Pitt-- Simon 2-3; Liriano 2-2
SF-NY-- Cain 0-4; deGrom 0-2
Mia-Mil-- Chen 2-4; Anderson 1-4
Wsh-StL-- Ross 1-3; Garcia 0-4
Col-Az-- Rusin 0-0; Greinke 2-5
SD-LA-- Rea 3-4; Stripling 0-4


Chi-Balt-- Latos 1-4; Gausman 0-1
NY-Bos-- Pineda 2-4; Porcello 1-4
Tor-TB-- Happ 1-4; Archer 2-5
LA-Tex-- Shoemaker 2-4; Holland 0-4
Det-Min-- Zimmerman 0-4; Duffey 1-1
Hst-A's-- Devenski 0-0; Hahn 0-0
KC-Sea-- Ventura 1-4; Miley 1-4


Clev-Phil-- Bauer 0-0; Eickhoff 1-4




Umpires


Wsh-StL-- Three of four Nelson games went over total.
Atl-Chi-- Five of last six Reynolds games stayed under.
SF-NY-- Last three Nauert games stayed under the total.
Cin-Pitt-- Under is 4-0-1 in Hernandez games this month.
Mia-Mil-- Over is 5-3 in last eight Hamari games.
Col-Az-- Home side won five of last six Basner games.
SD-LA-- Five of last seven Wegner games stayed under.


Det-Min-- Favorites won seven of last nine Wolcott games.
Hst-A's-- Over is 3-1-1 in Knight games this month.
Tor-TB-- Over is 11-4 inlast fifteen West games.
Chi-Balt-- Seven of last ten Torres games stayed under
NY-Bos-- Three of last four Iassogna games went over.
LA-Tex-- Six of last seven LBarrett games stayed under.
KC-Sea-- Over, home teams are 5-0 in BWelke games this month


Cle-Phil-- Four of last five Rackley games stayed under.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Preview: Tigers at Twins

GAME: Detroit Tigers (12-10) at Minnesota Twins (7-16)
DATE/TIME: Saturday, April 30 – 2:10 PM EST
WHERE: Target Field, Minneapolis, Minnesota
LINE: N/A TOTAL: N/A

Miguel Cabrera receives the bulk of the attention, but Victor Martinez’s bat has been nearly as important for the Detroit Tigers over the past several years. Martinez looks to stay hot when the Tigers continue a three-game series at Minnesota on Saturday.

Detroit’s designated hitter, who was 4-for-5 with a home run in Friday’s 9-2 win in the series opener, hit .330, .301 and .335 in three full seasons in which the Tigers won more than 90 games but missed all of 2012 when the team dipped under the 90-win mark and managed a .245 average while dealing with injuries during last year’s losing season. Keeping with that trend, Martinez is 9-for-19 with three homers and seven RBIs during the club’s current 4-1 surge. Not to be outdone, Cabrera has recovered from a brief slump to go 10-for-22 in the same stretch and his solo shot in five at-bats Friday left him with a .342 career average at Target Field. Detroit may not need much run support for starter Jordan Zimmermann, who has let up one earned run in four starts and will oppose Minnesota righty Tyler Duffey.

TV: 2:10 p.m. ET, FSN Detroit, FSN North (Minnesota)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RH Jordan Zimmermann (4-0, 0.35 ERA) vs. Twins RH Tyler Duffey (0-0, 2.25)

After blanking opponents in 19 1/3 innings over his first three starts, Zimmerman kept his record perfect with 6 2/3 solid frames against Oakland on Monday. He limited the Athletics to three runs (one earned) while striking out just one batter. The 29-year-old tossed seven scoreless in his lone start against Minnesota in 2013.

Duffey was called up from the minors last weekend when Ervin Santana was placed on the disabled list and allowed a run in four innings at Washington on Sunday, leaving after taking a line drive off his right arm. The 25-year-old boasts a 5-1 record with a 3.05 ERA in his first 11 major-league starts while allowing only five home runs in 62 innings. Duffey limited the Tigers to three runs in 12 1/3 innings in a pair of wins last September.

WALK-OFFS

1. Minnesota 1B Joe Mauer had a base hit Friday and has reached base in each of his 23 games, tied for the third-longest streak to start a season in Twins history.

2. Tigers 3B Nick Castellanos is 6-for-10 with four extra-base hits in his last three games.

3. LHP Justin Wilson and RHP Alex Wilson have combined for 22 strikeouts in 16 1/3 scoreless innings out of Detroit’s bullpen.

PREDICTION: Tigers 5, Twins 3

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Preview: Nationals at Cardinals

GAME: Washington Nationals (15-7) at St. Louis Cardinals (12-11)
DATE/TIME: Saturday, April 30 – 2:15 PM EST
WHERE: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, Missouri
LINE: N/A TOTAL: N/A

A blister on his right middle finger temporarily halted Joe Ross’ hot start, but the Washington right-hander hopes to pick up where he left off when the Nationals visit the St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday. Ross allowed just one run and eight hits over 14 2/3 innings in his first two turns of the season before the blister knocked him out of his April 20 start against Miami.

Ross left after two scoreless innings and was scratched when his scheduled turn came around on Tuesday. Team trainers shaved down the callus and Ross has been able to throw on the side without issue. Washington halted its three-game losing streak with a 5-4 victory in Friday’s series opener, and the game-opening homer by Michael Taylor ended the team’s 22-inning scoreless drought. The Cardinals have lost two straight games after winning four of their previous five.

TV: 2:15 p.m. ET, MLB Network, MASN (Washington), FSN Midwest (St. Louis)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Nationals RH Joe Ross (2-0, 0.54 ERA) vs. Cardinals LH Jaime Garcia (1-1, 3.24)

Ross has limited opposing batters to a .161 average and possesses an impressive 0.84 WHIP. The 22-year-old experienced major control issues in his lone career start against the Cardinals as he walked a career-high six while giving up three runs – and only one hit – in 2 2/3 innings of a no-decision on Sept. 1. Ross’ control has been fine this season as he issued just two walks in both of the starts that lasted at least seven frames.

Garcia lasted just five innings in each of his last two starts after striking out 13 while tossing a one-hit shutout against Milwaukee on April 14. He has fared well against the Nationals in his career, compiling a 4-1 record and 2.88 ERA in six career outings. Garcia has struggled against Danny Espinosa (6-for-13) while holding Bryce Harper to one hit – a home run – in six at-bats.

WALK-OFFS

1. Harper has drawn six walks while going 2-for-11 over his last four games.

2. St. Louis LF Matt Holliday recorded three hits in the opener and is 7-for-15 during his five-game hitting streak.

3. Washington RHP Jonathan Papelbon hurled a hitless ninth inning in the opener to post his eighth save – the second-highest total in the National League.

PREDICTION: Nationals 5, Cardinals 4