MLB April '09 - What have we learned?

[austintx05]

You have to identify teams with their true identity, so in this thread I will be listing strengths v weaknesses for teams. Feel free to chime in.

NL East

Phillies - scored 1 run in 18 innings and then 12 in game 3. Pitching is not impressive and offense 3 games in, inconsistent.

Braves - so far living up to their hype, but I'm not sure if that is more braves or cause philly's offense was asleep for 2 games.

Nationals - they are who we know they are. start the season 0-3.

Mets - Don't see much change in this team yet. Solid offense, couldn't hold off Cinci today, but its difficult to sweep, they win the series, good job for them. Santana is santana, perez is wild (5bb/4.1IP) Time will tell on their pitching.

Marlins - solid start at home. Again we will see how much was due to florida or due to Nationals sucking. Florida take on the Mets this weekend.

 

[austintx05]

NL Central

Cardinals - came back to win a game they were behind and should've never trailed. Split opening series with Pirates. Cards I think will be slightly above .500 this year, don't really impress me.

Pirates - after seeing them in ST, and splitting the series in STL, they impressed me slightly. Thought they might get one, but not 2.

Astros - About what I thought, lineup looks a little better, pitching will suffer and Oswalt didn't look so hot in his first start.

Cubs - great bats, dempster is a horrible starter, keep Z out of day games and they got a shot....that is until September starts

Cincinnati - don't know what to think, yet.

Milwaukee - step back this year. Can't really tell cause they are playing SFG, they will have a much tougher time vs EAST/CENTRAL.

 

[austintx05]

NL West

Dodgers - .500

D'backs - .500

Rockies - .400

Padres - .001

Giants - .475

in all honesty I stay away from this division. Crapshoot to me. I think Arizona will slide, Padres will be horrible. Giants on paper seem to have a rotation that could give them a shot, Dodgers have Manny lol....hell I don't know...gives me a headache trying to figure out this division.

 

[austintx05]

AL East

Red Sox - Picked em 2nd in the east. They lost the opening series to the team I picked to win the East. I think Dice will struggle a bit more this year...

Devil Rays - Picked em 1st based on defense and pitching. This year will be tougher for them to get to where they were and I don't expect them to get back to the WS, but for the sake of the division I picked em. Took the series in Boston, impressive start.

Yankees - I think Jays and Yankees will fight for 3rd/4th spot in division. CC has always started off slow, they overpaid AGAIN, have no depth in the pen, Mo is a yr older and have the ability to score 9 runs a game. Exactly where they were last year. Capable offensive machine, horrible and inconsistent pitching.

Toronto - same story till they prove me wrong. Can score at home, can't on the road. We will see if that holds up when they go to Cleveland this weekend. Some young pitching, reports that Ryan's mechanics were off in ST, should be able to correct.

Baltimore - sigh, last place again.

 

[austintx05]

AL Central

Cleveland - no pitching whatsoever. Series vs Texas 25+ LOB, pitching was atrocious. Lee and Carmona are returning to what they really are, avg at best. Gonna be a long season for the injuns.

KC -up and coming team, showed some hope taking 2 out of 3 in chicago. ps, get rid of farnsworth.

Sox - live and die by the home run. Not a lot of offense, pitching is avg...

Detroit - .500 - they should show a little more offense, but pitching is shaky.

Minnesota - not sure, they might be taking a step back. Lost their series opener to seattle...

 

[averageg]

BJ Ryan for the Jays might not be the same player as he was 3 years ago after TJ surgery. His fastball tops off at a mere 86 MPH. Luckily the Jays still have a strong bullpen with Downs, Carlson, Tallet and League. The youngsters are doing most of the damage so far in this early season. I think the Jays will surprise a lot of people this season once Wells and Rios become more consistent. They have an underrated lineup in my opinion:

Wells, Rios, Rolen, Snider, Lind and Overbay can all hit the long ball. Barajas is an awesome clutch hitter, Scutaro is a great utility player, and Hill hits for average and had shown he has power last year before his season was retired after a concussion.

 

[austintx05]

AL West

Oakland - picked them to win the West, should see more offense out of them this year and some good pitching prospects too.

Angels - taking a step back and this is before the tragedy that happened. Some injuries in the rotation and its gonna be tough for the Angels.

Seattle - they have to be better than last year, but who knows. With that lineup, not so sure...

Texas - offense will produce this season. Millwood was on in his 1st start and he should be, its a contract year for him. The rest of the Rangers pitching blows. McCarthy, Benson, Jennings, Francisco, CJ Wilson....when you avg 8 runs a game it hides your other flaws in the opening series. Good start for them though. Look at overs in Arlington.

 

[austintx05]

BJ Ryan for the Jays might not be the same player as he was 3 years ago after TJ surgery. His fastball tops off at a mere 86 MPH. Luckily the Jays still have a strong bullpen with Downs, Carlson, Tallet and League. The youngsters are doing most of the damage so far in this early season. I think the Jays will surprise a lot of people this season once Wells and Rios become more consistent. They have an underrated lineup in my opinion:

Wells, Rios, Rolen, Snider, Lind and Overbay can all hit the long ball. Barajas is an awesome clutch hitter, Scutaro is a great utility player, and Hill hits for average and had shown he has power last year before his season was retired after a concussion.

I know Barajas from his days as a ranger and I wouldn't use clutch to describe him, but serviceable would work. Jays have a good infield, some decent power if Wells decides to wake up this year....

 

[a153]

AL Central

Cleveland - no pitching whatsoever. Series vs Texas 25+ LOB, pitching was atrocious. Lee and Carmona are returning to what they really are, avg at best. Gonna be a long season for the injuns.

KC -up and coming team, showed some hope taking 2 out of 3 in chicago. ps, get rid of farnsworth.

Sox - live and die by the home run. Not a lot of offense, pitching is avg...

Detroit - .500 - they should show a little more offense, but pitching is shaky.

Minnesota - not sure, they might be taking a step back. Lost their series opener to seattle...

lol. Carmona is one of the best pitchers in the league. Lee is shit though

 

[austintx05]

lol. Carmona is one of the best pitchers in the league. Lee is shit though

is that because he had one good year? Time will tell...

 

[austintx05]

lol. Carmona is one of the best pitchers in the league. Lee is shit though

<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="ysptblthbody1" align="right"><td class="yspdetailttl" width="18%" align="left" height="18"> Last 3 years</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="6%" align="left">Team</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">G</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">GS</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">W</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">L</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">SV</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">BS</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">HLD</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">CG</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">SHO</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">IP</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">H</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">R</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">ER</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">HR</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">BB</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">K</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">ERA</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">WHIP</td> <td class="yspdetailttl">BAA</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="yspscores" align="left" height="16"> 2007</td> <td class="yspscores" align="left" height="16">CLE</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">32</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">32</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">19</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">8</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">0</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">0</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">0</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">2</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">1</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">215.0</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">199</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">78</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">73</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">16</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">61</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">137</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">3.06</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">1.21</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">.248</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16"> </td></tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="yspscores" align="left" height="16"> 2008</td> <td class="yspscores" align="left" height="16">CLE</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">22</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">22</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">8</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">7</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">0</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">0</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">0</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">1</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">1</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">120.2</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">126</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">80</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">73</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">7</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">70</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">58</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">5.44</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">1.62</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">.271</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16"> </td></tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="yspscores" align="left" height="16"> 2009</td> <td class="yspscores" align="left" height="16">CLE</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">1</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">1</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">0</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">1</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">0</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">0</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">0</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">0</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">0</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">5.0</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">7</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">6</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">e 6</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">1</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">2</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">4</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">10.80</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">1.80</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">.318</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16"> </td></tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="yspscores" align="left" height="16"> Career</td> <td class="yspscores" height="16">
</td></tr></tbody></table>
now I know this year we don't know how he will do. Will he bounce back or will he be on the decline. He sure didn't follow up his '07 season like "one of the best pitchers in the league."

 

[barman]

Nice summations of the first few days of 2009 season.

Here's pretty much what we need to know from a gambling preparation standpoint, heading into April, May and early June

The teams that blew last year will blow again at pretty much the same level.

UNLESS they demonstrate Top 10 (ML) pitching.

Because none of them* are likely to show much improvement offensively

The Rays made their huge leap last year from Chumps to champs because they had arguably best pitching in the league, though their offense remained fairly lightweight.

So as we watch over first 30 to 40 games, unless the current chumps show distinction pitching wise, we should be able to rely on them staying in form with past couple seasons.

*current Chump teams include BAL, KC, SEA, WAS, PIT, SF, HOU and CIN

TEX, FLA and DET are three teams that also need to show improved pitching to be a threat for over .500, but in their case it doesn't neccesarily have to be Top10 since they both mash offensively.

I also personally think the NYY have to have Top10 pitching or else they may not be at .500 come late July.

 

[austintx05]

barman :toast:

 

[THEH3AD]

Pretty nice stuff. ONE thing that really stood out to me that i think will be a trend early is that the Rays are getting no respect from the odds makers, vs boston and the yankees i believe the rays will have lots of value.

 

[SelectiveAscent]

+1.5 run lines seem to be kicking ass

 

[barman]

Right on....Watch and see that when the Sox come to St Petersburg on Apr 30, the betting lines will be like TB -130, whereas they were like -150 for Boston this past few days.

And I'll bring it up when it's pertinent in coming weeks, but don't forget that Bosox over past four years have about a .350 win percentage when on the road vs teams with winning records.

 

[austintx05]

+1.5 run lines seem to be kicking ass

random.

 

[barman]

I honestly think the Little Rangers have a shot at busting 1000 runs.

Which means they could have a pitching ERA of 5.00 and still compete most every night

 

[austintx05]

I honestly think the Little Rangers have a shot at busting 1000 runs.

Which means they could have a pitching ERA of 5.00 and still compete most every night

my thoughts exactly. This team should have some very consistent run production this season, but with guys like wilson, jennings, francisco, etc out of the pen the opposition will always be in the game.

 

[barman]

Toronto will struggle to top 725 runs.

Oakland likely the trickiest team to cap early since their lineup has very significant upgrades

Gotta think Yankees in first couple months versus any kind of strong starter are a lean for Under 5 runs, especially if Texiara does not rake. If he plays .270 with one HR a week (30 pace) the rest of their lineup is pretty limp with ARod and Abreu absent