Large
Cubs -133
It is rare to see the market bring down a Cubs price nearly 20 percent, and when they do, it is probably wise to proceed with caution. However, I feel they are sending this game in the wrong direction and are more prone to valuation error due to the relatively unknown of the Pirates starting pitcher. Although Mclutchen looked decent in his debut as far as numbers are concerned, he really didn’t look that overpowering and probably still lacks what it takes to be effective on this level on a consistent basis. He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in the league, which gives the slumping Cubs lineups an attractive spot to get out of their funk.
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The Cubs probably do not have to score much to pull out a victory with the way Lilly has been pitching. He has really been flying under the radar this year despite being consistently dominant both before the all star break and since it. Lilly also matches up well against the counterparts lineup, as his savvy style can take advantage of the youth and aggressiveness their hitters posses.
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Upper Medium
Dbacks -104
When the market is willing to support the DBacks as a favorite against the Dodgers, that is telling you something. A lot of pundits are now calling the Dodgers frauds and claiming there fast start was merely randomness. Not true. The Dodgers were a solid team overachieving during the first half of the season, and is now a solid team underachieving. Usually the market will open up opportunities to back a certain team, but the market, unlike the pundits on TV, are a little more hesitant to jump off their bandwagon.
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I like Schertzer in this spot. He seems to do much better against teams he is familiar with, and much like other teams in the West, he has had past success against the Dodgers. The market may be overly bullish on Padilla. He has been known to have upticks, but they rarely last for long periods of time. The Dbacks lineup has gotten some key young players back, and Young appears to be getting back on track.
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Padres +150
Really pounded this line on the overnight. The Padres remain undervalued during their road games, and their young roster is actually playing solid baseball right now. They seem to also like playing the role of spoilers, and looked like a team fighting for a playoff birth in their last series against the Dodgers. Richard showed a potential warning sign that his uptick may be over, and we may have seen the best of him a couple of starts ago. However, he returned to dominant form in his last start. The Giants lineup is really struggling to get anything going right now, and have had to rely on the long ball to score runs. With their lack of power, and playing in a big park, the long ball is not something you want to rely on.
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The market was really bearish on Penny all season with the Phillies. They also were in his first start with the Giants. He puts up one solid outing, and they are willing to make a 180 degree change on his valuation? Although I do think Penny is a good fit with the Giants, the market appears to be getting carried away here. He is still a risk every time he is on the mound, and the Giants bullpen has been worked hard of late.
Cubs -133
It is rare to see the market bring down a Cubs price nearly 20 percent, and when they do, it is probably wise to proceed with caution. However, I feel they are sending this game in the wrong direction and are more prone to valuation error due to the relatively unknown of the Pirates starting pitcher. Although Mclutchen looked decent in his debut as far as numbers are concerned, he really didn’t look that overpowering and probably still lacks what it takes to be effective on this level on a consistent basis. He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in the league, which gives the slumping Cubs lineups an attractive spot to get out of their funk.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o> </o>The Cubs probably do not have to score much to pull out a victory with the way Lilly has been pitching. He has really been flying under the radar this year despite being consistently dominant both before the all star break and since it. Lilly also matches up well against the counterparts lineup, as his savvy style can take advantage of the youth and aggressiveness their hitters posses.
<o
> </o>Upper Medium
Dbacks -104
When the market is willing to support the DBacks as a favorite against the Dodgers, that is telling you something. A lot of pundits are now calling the Dodgers frauds and claiming there fast start was merely randomness. Not true. The Dodgers were a solid team overachieving during the first half of the season, and is now a solid team underachieving. Usually the market will open up opportunities to back a certain team, but the market, unlike the pundits on TV, are a little more hesitant to jump off their bandwagon.
<o
> </o>I like Schertzer in this spot. He seems to do much better against teams he is familiar with, and much like other teams in the West, he has had past success against the Dodgers. The market may be overly bullish on Padilla. He has been known to have upticks, but they rarely last for long periods of time. The Dbacks lineup has gotten some key young players back, and Young appears to be getting back on track.
<o
> </o>Padres +150
Really pounded this line on the overnight. The Padres remain undervalued during their road games, and their young roster is actually playing solid baseball right now. They seem to also like playing the role of spoilers, and looked like a team fighting for a playoff birth in their last series against the Dodgers. Richard showed a potential warning sign that his uptick may be over, and we may have seen the best of him a couple of starts ago. However, he returned to dominant form in his last start. The Giants lineup is really struggling to get anything going right now, and have had to rely on the long ball to score runs. With their lack of power, and playing in a big park, the long ball is not something you want to rely on.
<o
> </o>The market was really bearish on Penny all season with the Phillies. They also were in his first start with the Giants. He puts up one solid outing, and they are willing to make a 180 degree change on his valuation? Although I do think Penny is a good fit with the Giants, the market appears to be getting carried away here. He is still a risk every time he is on the mound, and the Giants bullpen has been worked hard of late.
