Mlb 9/6

[buffettgambler]

Will add the rest of my card (plays medium and above) later.

Large
Blue Jays +138
The market has not done a good job adjusting the Yankees worth for the absence of Arod and Posada. Their large VORP and material downgrade it puts on the back end of the Yankees lineup does not appear to be fully reflected. Before Tallet's huge down tick, I was saying that material regression was in the cards due to potential dead arm. It came to fruition. The market is now discounting such. However, Tallets arm has been well preserved the last couple of months and should put forth a better product on the mound. Mitre has not shown anything since joining the team. Teams have been hitting him hard at ease. One good start does not change my opinion on him. The Yankees bullpen has been worked hard the last few days.

 

[Akillies]

good win w/ stros last nite
hope you are off the brewers,
talk about market overreaction how about edwin today, davis yet to face mlb lineup?

 

[buffettgambler]

good win w/ stros last nite
hope you are off the brewers,
talk about market overreaction how about edwin today, davis yet to face mlb lineup?

Thanks. Actually right back on them. Still think there is a consistent 10 cent plus premium on the Giants that will pay taking in the long run.

Best of luck today.

 

[buffettgambler]

Medium
Rays -108
Got this on the overnight for a better price, as I know the market has been really stubborn pricing Jackson much higher than he is really worth. Jackson has actually been a below average pitcher since the all star break and has gotten progressively worse. He also does not match up well against the Rays style of hitting. Although his inflation is starting to deflate, is has not come down to where it should be as his struggles have been masked against past run support ( a variable that lacks strong predicitive value).

Davis is a highly touted prospect (some of the Rays scouts have thought he has more upside than Price) that has nasty stuff. He has yet to put it all together, and many were expecting a more dominant year from him in the minors. Still someone that a pro lineup may have a hard time overmathcing. Backed by a deep and solid bullpen alleviates his risk.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

I just was going to ask you of your thoughts on Davis.
Good match-up and price to go against the Yankees.
Both these selections you made are very sharp and i agree. Good luck.

 

[Akillies]

excellent observation on mitre, i dont mind molina for posada arod is a big upgrade, but what i really like is when jeter sits, biggest downgrade

 

[buffettgambler]

Large
Brewers -108
The more the Giants win, the more inflated their asking price becomes. The Giants have not put forth a good product on the field during their recent road trip. In those five games, they scored more than three runs just once, and have averaged 2.4 runs during that span. They have been bailed out by their dominant starting pitching. Although Sanchez has pitched well of late, he is not someone you want on the mound when backed by a slumping lineup, as his high variance can get his team into trouble quick. Sanchez is also once again showing a material disparity in home and away starts, being a much better pitcher in his home park.

Looper is not an ideal pitcher to back, but he is out of favor. He has struggled all year with being prone to the long ball. The Giants lack of power can bail him out in this spot.

Upper Medium
White Sox +130
If there were 40 games left in the season, I would say that the White Sox had a good chance of winning their division. They certainly have the most rounded and most talented team in their anemic division. Although the market may have counted them out, they are still making one last run of it, winning their last four games against the Twins and Red Sox. They now send their most consistent, and possibly their best pitcher on the mound to continue their upward momentum. Danks has pitched five QS in a row, including a solid outing against the Red Sox a couple starts ago.
Lester is good, but the market sure puts a high premium on him. The White Sox are putting a lineup on the field that can do some damange against southpaws.

 

[buffettgambler]

Medium
Dbacks +214
Petit is not an ideal candidate to lay money on in general, but an argument can be made that he is as a large underdog due to his high variance. Del La Rosa is also a high variance pithcher, which is not ideal for a heavy favorite. I like what Petit has done in his last three outings. He has shown much more control of his pitches, resulting in fewer walks and home runs allowed. His recent outings should also improve his confidence that was surely shot due to his early season struggles. The Rockies are benching a couple of high VORP starters.