Mlb 9/5

[buffettgambler]

Hoping to bounce back after dealing with three rough days out of the last four.
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Will post the rest later
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Medium
Cubs -165
After losing an upper medium play on the Cubs last night, I am going right back with them, as I still feel they can be had for about 15 cents than they are really worth. I think Hardens last start was more of a hiccup than predictive value of what is too come. He lacked control of his pitches last start and was really getting squeezed. He still has been one of the best, if not the best, starting pitcher since the all star break. He also seems to be more comfortable on the road, and has been dominant in his road starts all season long, even when dealing with early season struggles. The Mets are putting out a week lineup better suited for left handed pitching. He has a good chance to make quick work out of them.
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Figuera seems to be on an uptick, but sustainability is in doubt. He has been extremely hittable, and simply do not see anything in his pitching ability or derivative numbers to think an uptick can last long.

 

[buffettgambler]

Large
Astros +100
The market and oddsmakers alike have really been all over the map with the pricing of Oswalt. One start he is coming with a lot of value, and the next he is overvalued. This is rare, especially with a veteran pitcher. It is also rare to see him predominately coming with value when he is pitching at home, a place where he has been materially more dominant throughout his career. Oswalt is not the same pitcher as he once was, and was starting to show signs of capitulating for the year about a month ago. However, he has put forth 3 solid outings in a row, and did not surpass 100 pitches in any of those starts, show his arm has been well preserved during his uptick. He is backed by the better bullpen. The Astros have always played better at home, and are entering this game with a five game home win streak. The Phillies home/road splits favoring the road is probably randomness, as there is no fundamental reason to support it. Blanton has been consistently solid for quite some time. The market is starting to really acknowledge it. Time to be cautious with him, as now expectations might be too high.
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Upper Medium
Brewers -132
Another play against the Giants. The market has been off with Cain all season. Before and during the heart of Cain’s uptick, the market elected to keep him materially undervalued. Now after finishing his worst month of the season and potentially showing some wear and tear, the market is putting a premium on his price. The Brewers are a good fastball hitting team and match up well with Cain. Gallado is coming with a nice price at home, which is rare. He has been absolutely dominant at home during his young career. In 24 career home starts, in three of them, he has allowed more than 3 runs. The Giants are once again not built to play the Brewers in a hitters park.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

How you doing, BG?

Really liking that Astros write up. Not many appealing value on sides according to me. I'll jump on the Brewers with you. The only night game i like are the O's depending what line ups each team throws out.

 

[HacheMan]

Good luck today bg......

 

[buffettgambler]

How you doing, BG?

Really liking that Astros write up. Not many appealing value on sides according to me. I'll jump on the Brewers with you. The only night game i like are the O's depending what line ups each team throws out.

Looks like the O's game is was one of the early ones. That said, I did not derive a value for that game because I can't get a comfortable valuation on the O's starter. What I have noticed is that the markets premium on Millwood has been decreasing as the season has progressed.
Best of luck.

 

[buffettgambler]

Material updgrade on the Astros. They have just become my largest play for the second half of the season.