Upper Medium
Cubs -154
I will be a buyer of an out of favor Zambrano facing a struggling pitcher that is out of place and an aggregate team that is in shambles. The market has dropped the no-vig open on the Cubs by nearly 10%, a nominal drop that appears not to reflect the insurance of backing a spotting Zambrano.
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Medium
Brewers -104
The Giants did not match up well against the Phillies in their park nor do they match up well against the Brewers in their bandbox. Oddsmakers were overly bullish on Zito’s uptick. The market has corrected a bit of that inflation, but there is some value left in backing the Brewers here. This is not a good spot for Zito to continue his uptick. He has struggled against the Brewers in the past, not surprisingly, as flyball pitchers run into problems against the Brewers power in this park. The market appears hesitant on Suppan. Although not an ideal candidate to back, his last start adds value as a case can be made he is not dead money since the injury.
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<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1lace>Rockies</st1lace> -106
Haren is having a little too much influence on this line. He is clearly not the same pitcher he was during the first half of the season. Although he is not being priced for such, there appears to still be an anchoring bias. Hammel is on an uptick, and is starting to show some signs of improvement in handling the thin air in his home starts. He matches up well against the Dbacks aggressive bats.
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Orioles +104
This is the time of year in which there is an over inflation on teams having something to play for against teams with nothing to play for. This game is an example of such. Tillman has faces some tough lineups already. The market has too high of an opinion on Feldman. His derivative numbers suggest material regression going forward. The Rangers lineup should notice an effect due to Young’s injury and his high VORP.
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Yankees +103
The market has been slowly taking off the excess premium on Hollidays price tag. They have yet to wipe it all out. The best of Holliday is long gone. He actually looked overmatched on the mound in August. His head and effort may not be the same either. Chamberlin is also a risk, but backed by the better lineup. Holliday may be a bet against in 2009 wire to wire as the market refuses to price him where he should be.
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Rays -108
Huge series for the Rays. Also a good series to show that they are a top 4 <st1:State><st1lace>AL</st1lace></st1:State> team for sure and superior to any team in the Central despite being a third place team. They match up well against Verlanders style and have proven so in the past. I also like the fact they got to see him just a few days ago. Verlander has been a poor finisher to seasons in the past. His choppy August appears to suggest the same will be in the cards for the 2009 close. Market made it clear to oddsmakers that the Rays had no business being opened as dogs in this one.
Cubs -154
I will be a buyer of an out of favor Zambrano facing a struggling pitcher that is out of place and an aggregate team that is in shambles. The market has dropped the no-vig open on the Cubs by nearly 10%, a nominal drop that appears not to reflect the insurance of backing a spotting Zambrano.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o> </o>Medium
Brewers -104
The Giants did not match up well against the Phillies in their park nor do they match up well against the Brewers in their bandbox. Oddsmakers were overly bullish on Zito’s uptick. The market has corrected a bit of that inflation, but there is some value left in backing the Brewers here. This is not a good spot for Zito to continue his uptick. He has struggled against the Brewers in the past, not surprisingly, as flyball pitchers run into problems against the Brewers power in this park. The market appears hesitant on Suppan. Although not an ideal candidate to back, his last start adds value as a case can be made he is not dead money since the injury.
<o
></o><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ffice:smarttags" /><st1lace>Rockies</st1lace> -106Haren is having a little too much influence on this line. He is clearly not the same pitcher he was during the first half of the season. Although he is not being priced for such, there appears to still be an anchoring bias. Hammel is on an uptick, and is starting to show some signs of improvement in handling the thin air in his home starts. He matches up well against the Dbacks aggressive bats.
<o
> </o>Orioles +104
This is the time of year in which there is an over inflation on teams having something to play for against teams with nothing to play for. This game is an example of such. Tillman has faces some tough lineups already. The market has too high of an opinion on Feldman. His derivative numbers suggest material regression going forward. The Rangers lineup should notice an effect due to Young’s injury and his high VORP.
<o
> </o><o
> </o>Yankees +103
The market has been slowly taking off the excess premium on Hollidays price tag. They have yet to wipe it all out. The best of Holliday is long gone. He actually looked overmatched on the mound in August. His head and effort may not be the same either. Chamberlin is also a risk, but backed by the better lineup. Holliday may be a bet against in 2009 wire to wire as the market refuses to price him where he should be.
<o
></o>Rays -108
Huge series for the Rays. Also a good series to show that they are a top 4 <st1:State><st1
lace>AL</st1lace></st1:State> team for sure and superior to any team in the Central despite being a third place team. They match up well against Verlanders style and have proven so in the past. I also like the fact they got to see him just a few days ago. Verlander has been a poor finisher to seasons in the past. His choppy August appears to suggest the same will be in the cards for the 2009 close. Market made it clear to oddsmakers that the Rays had no business being opened as dogs in this one.
