Hoping to bounce back from a rough couple of days.
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Upper Medium
Indians +126
As a short term play, the Indians are a touch team to stomach when backing. They lack the ideal fundamental play, are sloppy on defense, are not good at running the bases, and lack the solid situational and clutch hitting. They also are backed by horrible in game managerial decisions. That said, when a team has these characteristics for prolong periods of time, the market has the propensity to shy away from them and embed a premium on them. In my opinion, the Indians are once again are being backed by a generous price tag.
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I am not putting too much stock into Carmona’s last outing. He has pitched well since the break, and has had past success against the Tigers. All of his derivative numbers have been suggesting a sustainable uptick. Robertson is a liability on the mound. He has also always had problems with the Indians. He is in the rotation by default, and this will probably be his last start due to Galaraga coming back.
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Marlins +112
The market has been very fickle with their pricing on Nolasco. He currently once again seems to be out of favor. The market may be pricing in his poor August as suggestive of regression to his early season struggles. However his secondary numbers and velocity do not support this claim. He was even still able to post a 1.22 WHIP in August, maintain his FB/GB rate, and put forth a lower FIP than ERA.
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The market continues to be overly opportunistic with Hanson. His quality lineup faced adjusted ERA is nothing special since the break. He is also entering this game with over 150 innings pitched in the pros and minors this year, 20% more than his previous career high. The Marlins should have Hanley and Johnson back in the lineup today.
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A’s -130
I continue to think that the market is really overvaluing the Mariners. Their last two wins against the Angels does nothing to change my opinion, as that was solely predicated on their starting pitchers in those games. Snell is a far cry from Hernandez, and don’t think this uptick is terribly sustainable, and rather an opportunity to bet against him. Tomko has pitched well all season and is fresh. He should also be helped out by his home park and lack of powering in the Mariners lineup. The A’s bats are starting to show some signs of coming to life, and the A’s team is playing hard each day despite not much to play for. They should also be motivated to avenge being swept by the Mariners in their last series against them.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o> </o>Upper Medium
Indians +126
As a short term play, the Indians are a touch team to stomach when backing. They lack the ideal fundamental play, are sloppy on defense, are not good at running the bases, and lack the solid situational and clutch hitting. They also are backed by horrible in game managerial decisions. That said, when a team has these characteristics for prolong periods of time, the market has the propensity to shy away from them and embed a premium on them. In my opinion, the Indians are once again are being backed by a generous price tag.
<o
> </o>I am not putting too much stock into Carmona’s last outing. He has pitched well since the break, and has had past success against the Tigers. All of his derivative numbers have been suggesting a sustainable uptick. Robertson is a liability on the mound. He has also always had problems with the Indians. He is in the rotation by default, and this will probably be his last start due to Galaraga coming back.
<o
> </o><o
> </o>Marlins +112
The market has been very fickle with their pricing on Nolasco. He currently once again seems to be out of favor. The market may be pricing in his poor August as suggestive of regression to his early season struggles. However his secondary numbers and velocity do not support this claim. He was even still able to post a 1.22 WHIP in August, maintain his FB/GB rate, and put forth a lower FIP than ERA.
<o
> </o>The market continues to be overly opportunistic with Hanson. His quality lineup faced adjusted ERA is nothing special since the break. He is also entering this game with over 150 innings pitched in the pros and minors this year, 20% more than his previous career high. The Marlins should have Hanley and Johnson back in the lineup today.
<o
> </o>A’s -130
I continue to think that the market is really overvaluing the Mariners. Their last two wins against the Angels does nothing to change my opinion, as that was solely predicated on their starting pitchers in those games. Snell is a far cry from Hernandez, and don’t think this uptick is terribly sustainable, and rather an opportunity to bet against him. Tomko has pitched well all season and is fresh. He should also be helped out by his home park and lack of powering in the Mariners lineup. The A’s bats are starting to show some signs of coming to life, and the A’s team is playing hard each day despite not much to play for. They should also be motivated to avenge being swept by the Mariners in their last series against them.
