QUESTIONS FOR YOU BG IF I MAY..DO YOU YOU USE A 'SIMILIAR' VALUATION MODEL FOR FOOTBALL AS BASEBALL...GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE SPORTS ??? oN STREAKS....IT SEEMS LIKE A PHENOMENON TO ME THAT YOU CAN GO SAY 2 FOR 12 OR 12 FOR 2 HOW MUCH RANDOMNESS AND NOISE CONTRIBUTES TO THIS????YOU HAVE REPONDED TO ME ABOUT THIS IN THE PAST..BUT NOT SURE (OUTSIDE OF INCREASING OR DECREASING BETS ACCORDINGLY) HOW TO GUESS A "MEAN" TO THIS.. I HAVE BEEN BETTING FOR 35 YEARS AND THIS IS STILL PUZZLING THANKS
The similarities of deriving an intrinsic value to a game, comparing it to the market, and quantifiying the appropriate amount to risk on the game based on the disparity is the same. The quant model that derives the fair value is very different.
There is a lot of randomness in short term performance in both sports. The amount of games in a baseball season allows most of the noise to be weeded out. Football lacks the ideal volume to get rid of a lot of noise, thus you will see a lot of -EV cappers churning plus years, and EV cappers having losing.
Added to the lack of volume, the increased market efficiency, increased randomness within a game, and a higher amount of intangibles that influence a game all lead to pricing error as well as a harder capability of finding a disparity between price and true worth- all of which can also increase variance (noise).