Feelings are a liability in handicapping. I have no problem backing the Rays again if the price is right. Right now, I feel the Rays are being priced below true worth. I was fortunate enough to have side stepped their prolong losing streak, and hopefully can take advantage of the market throwing in the towel on this team down the stretch.
This is a huge game for Sonnastine. I am sure his last start against the Yankees has been eating away at him. He pitched well enough in the minors to make me think his arm is not shot, and has something left in the tank. This is a good fundamental match up for him to right the ship.
I don't think highly of Tillman and think he this is a bad matchup for him. When he was with Seattle farm system, they allowed him to throw challenge fastballs up in the zone (due to their park allowing for such). He has brought this style to Baltimore and is asking for trouble. He has allowed 12 home runs in 51 innings, including 3 against the Rays the first time he faced them. He has looked horrible in September, which is no suprise as the beginning of September was the time he accumulated a career high in innings pitched. The O's bullpen should allow the Rays to score throughout.
Contrary to what a lot of posts suggest on this forum, value can not exist without deriving the % chance the team has of winning. Saying a team has value at +300 without knowing their chances of winning is a fallicious.
That said, I feel that Rays have about a 55.5% chance of winning this game, so trading around even money is a gift in my opinion.
I think the market set the line correctly. With the way the Sox were undervalued yesterday, it appears my valuation on Saunders is higher than the oddsmakers.
The market has now sent this game at a price where I may start nibbling on the Sox. I will wait to see the lineups before making a move.
