May add later.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o
> </o>
Large
Angels -136
Once again, the Angels are coming at a bargain price, something that the market has not allowed for almost the entire season. I don’t think the market is accurately quantifying the true worth of the Mariners. With the injuries to the their two most potent bats, a bullpen that is starting to show signs of regression, and with the league starting to figure out their young staff, the quality of team the Mariners are now putting forth on the field is literally equivalent to a last place team. Santana is starting to turn things around nicely. He has pitched four straight quality starts, and his FIP is declining at a faster rate than his ERA. His style of pitching should also benefit from the lack of powering in the Mariners lineup and the spacious park that will compliment his flyball tendencies.
<o> </o>
As expected French was overwhelmed last night. I am not expecting Fister to look as outmatched, but he too may be up for a tough challenge. Fister appears to be getting worse in each start, is becoming vulnerable to the long ball, and looked outmatched against an anemic Royals lineup last time out. He has one of the largest disparities in ERA/FIP (having a lower ERA), which is a bearish indicator. So is the notion that his LOB% is much higher than his minor league career averages. Fister really lacks overpowering stuff, and should run into difficulties the second time around the lineup. Backed by an overachieving bullpen whose opponents know them well should allow the Angels to once again put up a nice amount of runs.
<o> </o>
Nationals +132
Martin has consistently been undervalued since being called up. The Padres have consistently been overvalued during their home games. No surprise that the Nationals are being backed by a nice amount of value. Martin is starting to come into his own after a rough start in the majors. His last two outings he still showed signs of vulnerability against power lineups from the left side. Fortunately for his chances tonight, he will not have to face such, and will also be helped out by the large park. The Padres unsurprisingly showed vulnerability to the finesse style of pitching. They will once again have to face such tonight.
<o> </o>
Richard has not looked right this month. He has been on and then off, and fatigue may be starting to set in. His WHIP in August was 1.8, and a material increase in his walk rate hampered his performance. Richards only plus pitch this year has been his fastball, which bodes well for a good fastball hitting team like the Nats. The Nats have a better and more underrated lineup.
<o> </o>
Medium
Phillies -184
I think the market may be getting a bit too over excited about the Giants home sweep against the <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1lace>Rockies</st1lace>. Sanchez has been getting progressively better, but this is a bad fundamental matchup for his style of pitching. Sanchez is his own worst enemy, as his lack of control gets him into trouble. Facing patient lineups magnifies this deficiency. The Phillies are one of the most patient lineups in the league. Sanchez has also pitched materially worse on the road throughout his career. He has reached a comfort zone on his home mound and his flyball style is helped by pitching in a pitchers park. However, this will not be the case tonight in Philly, and the Phillies power spread out in the lineup should benefit from Sanchezs vulnerability to the long ball.
<o> </o>
Hammels has been very streaky this season, and is currently on an uptick. He too is vulnerable to the long ball, but the Giants lineup lacks the power to exploit such. Hamels has been much better since the break, and the market has continued to be cautious with him. This is a bad series for the Giants. They are not built for this park.
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
Reds -108
Once again the market is being overly bearish on the Reds. After sweeping yesterdays double header, the Reds are now on a 7-2 run. Morton has not pitched well at all down the stretch. He has walked 11 batters in his last 13 innings. Combined with allowing hitters to bat over .300 against him in August, and Morton is not a pitcher you want backed by an anemic lineup and a subpar and overused bullpen. Lehr has pitched well in all of his home starts this year. Although I am not overly excited about backing him, the market is not pricing him correctly. He is also backed by the better bullpen and lineup.
<o> </o>
Indians +182
Once again, <st1:City><st1lace>Jackson</st1lace></st1:City> asking price is really being inflated. No matter how signs of regression he gives, the oddsmakers seem to turn a blind on them and inflated his price. <st1:City><st1lace>Jackson</st1lace></st1:City> has been unable to make it through the 7<SUP>th</SUP> in over a month. He also got roughed up by the Indians last time out, and has now put out a WHIP of at least <st1:metricconverter ProductID="1.50 in">1.50 in</st1:metricconverter> back to back months. I said a couple of weeks ago the Indians may be a good play down the stretch. They are currently on a 7-3 run while being consistently complimented by deflated price tags.
<o> </o>
The Indians lack talent in the starting pitching category. Going with a relatively unknown may do more good than harm. Corrasco has a plus fastball, low walk rate and a solid K/BB rate. He is also somewhat hard to pick up, which could be a benefit facing a lineup that has obviously not seen him.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o> </o>Large
Angels -136
Once again, the Angels are coming at a bargain price, something that the market has not allowed for almost the entire season. I don’t think the market is accurately quantifying the true worth of the Mariners. With the injuries to the their two most potent bats, a bullpen that is starting to show signs of regression, and with the league starting to figure out their young staff, the quality of team the Mariners are now putting forth on the field is literally equivalent to a last place team. Santana is starting to turn things around nicely. He has pitched four straight quality starts, and his FIP is declining at a faster rate than his ERA. His style of pitching should also benefit from the lack of powering in the Mariners lineup and the spacious park that will compliment his flyball tendencies.
<o
> </o>As expected French was overwhelmed last night. I am not expecting Fister to look as outmatched, but he too may be up for a tough challenge. Fister appears to be getting worse in each start, is becoming vulnerable to the long ball, and looked outmatched against an anemic Royals lineup last time out. He has one of the largest disparities in ERA/FIP (having a lower ERA), which is a bearish indicator. So is the notion that his LOB% is much higher than his minor league career averages. Fister really lacks overpowering stuff, and should run into difficulties the second time around the lineup. Backed by an overachieving bullpen whose opponents know them well should allow the Angels to once again put up a nice amount of runs.
<o
> </o>Nationals +132
Martin has consistently been undervalued since being called up. The Padres have consistently been overvalued during their home games. No surprise that the Nationals are being backed by a nice amount of value. Martin is starting to come into his own after a rough start in the majors. His last two outings he still showed signs of vulnerability against power lineups from the left side. Fortunately for his chances tonight, he will not have to face such, and will also be helped out by the large park. The Padres unsurprisingly showed vulnerability to the finesse style of pitching. They will once again have to face such tonight.
<o
> </o>Richard has not looked right this month. He has been on and then off, and fatigue may be starting to set in. His WHIP in August was 1.8, and a material increase in his walk rate hampered his performance. Richards only plus pitch this year has been his fastball, which bodes well for a good fastball hitting team like the Nats. The Nats have a better and more underrated lineup.
<o
> </o>Medium
Phillies -184
I think the market may be getting a bit too over excited about the Giants home sweep against the <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ffice:smarttags" /><st1lace>Rockies</st1lace>. Sanchez has been getting progressively better, but this is a bad fundamental matchup for his style of pitching. Sanchez is his own worst enemy, as his lack of control gets him into trouble. Facing patient lineups magnifies this deficiency. The Phillies are one of the most patient lineups in the league. Sanchez has also pitched materially worse on the road throughout his career. He has reached a comfort zone on his home mound and his flyball style is helped by pitching in a pitchers park. However, this will not be the case tonight in Philly, and the Phillies power spread out in the lineup should benefit from Sanchezs vulnerability to the long ball.<o
> </o>Hammels has been very streaky this season, and is currently on an uptick. He too is vulnerable to the long ball, but the Giants lineup lacks the power to exploit such. Hamels has been much better since the break, and the market has continued to be cautious with him. This is a bad series for the Giants. They are not built for this park.
<o
> </o><o
> </o>Reds -108
Once again the market is being overly bearish on the Reds. After sweeping yesterdays double header, the Reds are now on a 7-2 run. Morton has not pitched well at all down the stretch. He has walked 11 batters in his last 13 innings. Combined with allowing hitters to bat over .300 against him in August, and Morton is not a pitcher you want backed by an anemic lineup and a subpar and overused bullpen. Lehr has pitched well in all of his home starts this year. Although I am not overly excited about backing him, the market is not pricing him correctly. He is also backed by the better bullpen and lineup.
<o
> </o>Indians +182
Once again, <st1:City><st1
lace>Jackson</st1lace></st1:City> asking price is really being inflated. No matter how signs of regression he gives, the oddsmakers seem to turn a blind on them and inflated his price. <st1:City><st1lace>Jackson</st1lace></st1:City> has been unable to make it through the 7<SUP>th</SUP> in over a month. He also got roughed up by the Indians last time out, and has now put out a WHIP of at least <st1:metricconverter ProductID="1.50 in">1.50 in</st1:metricconverter> back to back months. I said a couple of weeks ago the Indians may be a good play down the stretch. They are currently on a 7-3 run while being consistently complimented by deflated price tags.<o
> </o>The Indians lack talent in the starting pitching category. Going with a relatively unknown may do more good than harm. Corrasco has a plus fastball, low walk rate and a solid K/BB rate. He is also somewhat hard to pick up, which could be a benefit facing a lineup that has obviously not seen him.
