Mlb 8/31

[buffettgambler]

Will add the rest of my plays later.

Large
Rays -104
Rarely do you see a team as talented as the Rays undervalued. However, this appears to be the case as they are flying under the radar partially due to the Yankees and Red Sox, and they are now starting to get written off as a potential playoff team. Add the variables of the Tigers being an overvalued team, and the market continuing to inlfate Washburns price despite showing significant regression since joining the Tigers, and you have some really nice value on the Rays. Washburn has been missing his location and has become vulnerable to the long ball. He fell off the cliff last year in August as well. Expecting him to return to his first half form is probably wishful thinking.

Upper Medium
Reds -118
Generous price on the Reds. The market continues to be really bearish on them even though they won five of their last seven games, and showed a lot of fight in their last two series against good teams. The Pirates looked bad in their last series and currently have the worst road record in baseball. Their bullpen is inferior to their counter part. The market seems to be overly bullish on McClutchen despite nothing really being specially for him. He is a finese pitcher prone to the long ball and can struggle against left handed bats. This is not an ideal match up for him, as the ball should travel well, and the Reds lineup's inability to manufactuer runs is masked by the long ball propensity of the Pirates pitcher. The Reds have desisive advantages in certain facets of this game. Nice value.

 

[bank--it]

shoot got busy at work and missed entire afternoon card!! Rays ready to finish the deal and cash.

Congrats boys!

 

[Vulture50]

Thanks for the great insight buffett. Cant wait to see the afternoon card.

 

[Rip007]

Thanks bg !!! I have learned a lot from your posts !!! You take the "coin-flipping" out !!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[indiana]

buff...

great selection... winner right out of the gate....
thank you

indy

 

[gr8whtnorth]

Sweet!!

Nice calls.

 

[buffettgambler]

Large
Angels -136
One thing I have been noticing is that the premium that the oddsmakers have placed on the Angels have been slowly declining with each successive game. The market has been very bearish on Saunders all season, and it has paid off. His first start back from the DL, they remained bearish on his valuation despite placing a premium on the team as a whole. Even after putting forth a solid outing against a Tigers team that he struggled against in 2 earlier starts this season, the market is once again deflating his asking price. This is a good spot for Saunders to put forth another decent outing. He has had past success against the Mariners, a team who happens to be the only team this year in which Saunders put forth 2 solid outings against. Saunders HR per flyball is abnormally high this year. The lack of power and big park should offset this deficiency. So should the key injuries to an already sub par lineup that he will get to face.
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French is showing signs that he is ready to implode. He has struggled since joining the Mariners, and his primary numbers should be much worse based on his secondary numbers. French simply allows too many baserunners to sustain his current level. The Angels are the last team to allow a lot of base runners to, as they don’t waste outs, and know how to manufacturer runs and have long ball power.
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Upper Medium
Nationals +142
The Padres continue to carry an inflated price tag during their home games. It is somewhat surprising to see, as they have been out of favor on the road and are currently on a 15-28 home performance. I am not sold on Stauffer justifying warranting this asking price when backed by a bad lineup. He has not looked good in his last three starts, and his 80% LOB rate is much higher than to be expected for a pitcher of his caliber, thus a sign of potential regression. The Nats may have one of the most underrated lineups in the league, a lineup far better than their opposition.
<o> </o>
There is not much to get excited about backing Hernandez. However, I am not surprised there is value in doing so. Hernandez has one of the largest disparities of FIP vs. ERA, a stat that typically is accompanied by a deflated price tag on a pitcher. Hernandez is crafty and can exploit an inexperienced lineup. Blanks injury takes away a lot of pop, and if Gonzalez is able to go, he will not be playing at top health.
<o> </o>
Cubs -148
Surprised to see Harden coming with value, as the market has really been aggressive in backing him since the all star break and rightfully so. Harden may be the most dominant pitcher since the break, as posting a .151 OBA and .82 WHIP in 50 innings would suggest. Backed by a decent bullpen, and a struggling Astros lineup will probably continue to struggle in this one.
<o> </o>
Oswalt has given enough evidence that he may be in the declining stages of his career, and the decline may be steeper than expected. His K/9 is out of favor this year, while the effectiveness of his fastball is the lowest it has been his entire career. Opponents contact rate is higher than normal this year, all facets that are magnified when having to face a lineup that knows you well. Oswalt may be being priced to name in this one.
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White Sox +102
Oddsmakers have become really bearish on the White Sox after losing 7 of their last 8 games. But lets not forget this teams last 2 series were in Fenway and in <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:State><st1lace>New York</st1lace></st1:State>, and you can not draw up a harder schedule than that. Let’s also not forget that the Twins appear to have also lost their way at the plate, only able to put up more than 3 runs in 2 of their last 6 games. Struggling bats is not something you want when you are sending a struggling starting pitcher on the mound. <st1lace>Blackburn</st1lace> has been horrific on the mound since the break, posting an 8 plus ERA. His FIP suggest it can be even worse. This is a good spot for the White Sox lineup to get things back on track. The same can not be said for the Twins bats. Floyd has quietly been putting forth a solid season, and has been getting progressively better. He has also been a strong finisher of seasons. Backed by a solid bullpen, and the Twins bats may struggle to get things going once again.
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Medium
Braves +144
This is a big series between 2 teams converging. The convergence is predicated on the Marlins regression lead by a slumping lineup that is battling key injuries. The Braves are upward trending lead by dominant pitching and clutch hitting. Kawakami is starting to find his groove. He has been very consistent and witnesses some declining derivative numbers. Backed by a solid bullpen and the Marlins may struggle putting runs on the board. Johnson has not been dominant since the all star break. Fatigue has been setting in, as he has been struggling out of the stretch and in stress situations. The culprit may be already surpassing his career high in innings pitched and pitches made in a season. He has an increasing well hit ball ratio, and has been unable to surpass 100 pitches in four of his last five starts.

 

[Akillies]

taking the afternoon off was a costly mistake for me
was going to ask you about johnson, comments leave little doubt.
only 1 i wont play is cubs, too much chalk to get interested
relly like laa

 

[indiana]

Buff...........

great write - ups.........g/l tonight

indy

 

[buffettgambler]

Upgrade
Upper Medium
Reds -114 Game 2
The Pirates continue their struggles as they were unable to do any damage against one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball. The Reds did a better job conserving their bullpen than I thought they would with Wells on the mound. The market is not only cautious with Cueto, but pessimistic. Maholm has really been struggling since his solid start and has been known to perform much worse on the road. This year is no different. 2 of his last 8 road starts have been quality ones. Probably not going to get it done when backed by a Pirates bullpen and lineup.

 

[GordonGekko]

Good luck Buffett. Nice writeups as usual!

 

[F.A.D.E.D.]

good shit buffett....cant wait for football. always follow you.

thanks