MLB 5/5 Plays

[IrishTim]

Missed those last 3 but was already on Pitt so I can live with it. BG, not sure if you saw my post in yesterday's thread:

I know you don't do totals, but I imagine your simulations/model has some sort of projected score. I may be missing something but Boston/LA under 10 (starting to move some) and Det/Min under 10 (remaining solid) are two of the best total plays of the season according to my figures. You have any thoughts at all?

Have similar feelings about tomorrow's Boston/LAA under 10.5 (-115), if you have any thoughts.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

Missed those last 3 but was already on Pitt so I can live with it. BG, not sure if you saw my post in yesterday's thread:



Have similar feelings about tomorrow's Boston/LAA under 10.5 (-115), if you have any thoughts.

Good stuff. I don't know why BG doesn't do totals. It seems like he limited himself. I mean when you have knowledge like that to the sport i would think you take advantage of any value like props, totals, etc.

 

[im2bz4yaa]

Good stuff. I don't know why BG doesn't do totals. It seems like he limited himself. I mean when you have knowledge like that to the sport i would think you take advantage of any value like props, totals, etc.

I, too, am surprised he doesn't post any totals, as he used to all the time. My only guess would be that he has small to medium plays on them, but there's not enough value that warrants posting.

As far as props, I'll quit gambling if BG starts posting props. Value is just extremely hard to find, factoring in the high vig that books charge.

BOL

 

[buffettgambler]

I, too, am surprised he doesn't post any totals, as he used to all the time. My only guess would be that he has small to medium plays on them, but there's not enough value that warrants posting.

As far as props, I'll quit gambling if BG starts posting props. Value is just extremely hard to find, factoring in the high vig that books charge.

BOL

There is a lot of value in prop lines, as it is a highly inefficient market. Probably best not to post prop plays.

 

[IrishTim]

There is a lot of value in prop lines, as it is a highly inefficient market. Probably best not to post prop plays.

Yup. There is some idiot at Olympic hitting the NHL props during the regular season when the $100 limits are in effect before the other books copy and paste their lines.

 

[buffettgambler]

Missed those last 3 but was already on Pitt so I can live with it. BG, not sure if you saw my post in yesterday's thread:



Have similar feelings about tomorrow's Boston/LAA under 10.5 (-115), if you have any thoughts.

Solid hits on your totals yesterday Tim. I no longer bet totals, so I don't incorporate certain variables within my model that can be alluded in deriving intrinsic values in ML's that can't in totals.
On the surface, this appears to be a high variance total that should help the Under. Oddsmakers seem to be much more cautious with Matsusaka than they were the first game. Usually that's the time to go the other way. Both lineups current form is below expected form (Angels scored 3 or less in 5 of 8, Red Sox 3 or less in 4 of 8). My model suggests Under is a play, but without the all the variables, it has high margin of error.
BOL and keep up the good work.

 

[IrishTim]

Thanks BG. I'll stop bothering you with totals so you can focus on today's card :toast:

 

[Thesquirrel]

BG sorry to post this in your thread.

Munson you had asked BG the definition of FIP awhile back. I wanted to send you this link and forgot. Here it is if this helps you any with other explanations.

Best of luck today boys:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/

 

[Stabler12]

I appreciate that Squirrel.:toast:

 

[TheHungerForMore]

BG sorry to post this in your thread.

Munson you had asked BG the definition of FIP awhile back. I wanted to send you this link and forgot. Here it is if this helps you any with other explanations.

Best of luck today boys:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/