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Red Sox -104
Lineup information just took an undervalued Red Sox team and made them even that much more undervalued, as I have materially upgraded their intrinsic value. As the Blue Jays and Marcum continue to overachieve, the market is continue to leave value on the table by going against them, even if going against them means backing a hot Red Sox team. Wakefield is a question mark, as is all knuckleballers, as you never know if the knuckler will work that particular day. Day games are better for the pitch. The Blue Jays hitters have a lifetime 133 at bats against Wakefield, yet managed just one home run. The hot hitting Buck and dangerous hitter Lind out of the lineup. Molina is one of the replacements, who has struggled against Wafefield. The Red Sox bullpen is deep and well rested. I am not sold on Marcum. His well hit ratio is continue to go up, and is coming off a start where he allowed 2 home runs. He has struggled in day games in his career. The Red Sox lineup is starting to heat up, and are playing with a lot more confidence than they were a couple weeks back.
<o> </o>
White Sox +132
The Twins are becoming a real pricey team, especially when they play at home. Danks is simply too good of a pitcher that is in top form to give this kind of implied win probability to. He has not allowed more than 2 runs in any of his starts so far this season, despite facing this same Twins, lineup, the Rays, Jays twice and Yankees. He hasn’t shown many signs of material regression coming, and his line drive rate is at a very impressive percentage. Teams are not hitting him hard. Although he has struggled against the Twins in the past and some of their key hitters, during his last four starts against them, three have been quality ones, suggesting improvement off past struggles. Pavano is pitching over his head right now. Although I can not find any derivative numbers that suggest overachievement so far this season, his fastball value is materially up this year compared to years past, something I see no fundamental reason for, and probably can be attributed to randomness. The White Sox are a good fastball hitting team, and if regression comes from this pitch, expect more of recent year Pavano in the near future. The Twins bullpen is overrated.
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Red Sox -104
Lineup information just took an undervalued Red Sox team and made them even that much more undervalued, as I have materially upgraded their intrinsic value. As the Blue Jays and Marcum continue to overachieve, the market is continue to leave value on the table by going against them, even if going against them means backing a hot Red Sox team. Wakefield is a question mark, as is all knuckleballers, as you never know if the knuckler will work that particular day. Day games are better for the pitch. The Blue Jays hitters have a lifetime 133 at bats against Wakefield, yet managed just one home run. The hot hitting Buck and dangerous hitter Lind out of the lineup. Molina is one of the replacements, who has struggled against Wafefield. The Red Sox bullpen is deep and well rested. I am not sold on Marcum. His well hit ratio is continue to go up, and is coming off a start where he allowed 2 home runs. He has struggled in day games in his career. The Red Sox lineup is starting to heat up, and are playing with a lot more confidence than they were a couple weeks back.
<o> </o>
White Sox +132
The Twins are becoming a real pricey team, especially when they play at home. Danks is simply too good of a pitcher that is in top form to give this kind of implied win probability to. He has not allowed more than 2 runs in any of his starts so far this season, despite facing this same Twins, lineup, the Rays, Jays twice and Yankees. He hasn’t shown many signs of material regression coming, and his line drive rate is at a very impressive percentage. Teams are not hitting him hard. Although he has struggled against the Twins in the past and some of their key hitters, during his last four starts against them, three have been quality ones, suggesting improvement off past struggles. Pavano is pitching over his head right now. Although I can not find any derivative numbers that suggest overachievement so far this season, his fastball value is materially up this year compared to years past, something I see no fundamental reason for, and probably can be attributed to randomness. The White Sox are a good fastball hitting team, and if regression comes from this pitch, expect more of recent year Pavano in the near future. The Twins bullpen is overrated.