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Upper Medium
Indians +112
Some decent value on the Indians. The Royals are a bad team with a bad record. I don’t see any reason for this to change. Their offense is anemic, and their starting pitcher is sub par and too high variance to support it. They make for a dangerous favorite. Indians are underachieving and have upside potential off current form. Nice lineup edge against the Royals, especially against right handed pitchers. Westbrook is off to a slow start. His walk rate is up and strikeout rate is down. This is concerning, but a good forward looking indicator is to monitor his groundball rate. If that is down, then there is something seriously wrong. It is not. His FIP suggest improvement off current form as well. His past success against the Royals gives him a good opportunity to get things back on track tonight. Bannister makes for a much better underdog than favorite. He is too high variance to support this price. He is coming off a bad outing, and has been known to have bad outings in clusters. There are no derivative numbers that suggest improvement off current numbers.
<o> </o>
Marlins +118
I have been saying it since the beginning of the season. The Cubs are not that good. They are even playing worse than their true potential as well, yet the market continues to price them as a good team. The market likes well, but his last two starts should be concerning, and a premium should not be priced on his arm, especially on a downtick and facing a tough lineup. His slider is not nearly as effective as it was last year, which does not bode terribly well for his chances against a solid fastball hitting team. He is backed by a bullpen that lacks depth. The Cubs lineup is underachieving, as some of their veteran players are in a prolong slump. Although they should improve off current form, a red flag has been raised as a material downgrade in their true worth should be reviewed. Nolasco is a pretty decent pitcher and is a pretty decent option as an underdog due to his high variance. He has pitched well on the road so far, and has had past success against the Cubs.
Upper Medium
Indians +112
Some decent value on the Indians. The Royals are a bad team with a bad record. I don’t see any reason for this to change. Their offense is anemic, and their starting pitcher is sub par and too high variance to support it. They make for a dangerous favorite. Indians are underachieving and have upside potential off current form. Nice lineup edge against the Royals, especially against right handed pitchers. Westbrook is off to a slow start. His walk rate is up and strikeout rate is down. This is concerning, but a good forward looking indicator is to monitor his groundball rate. If that is down, then there is something seriously wrong. It is not. His FIP suggest improvement off current form as well. His past success against the Royals gives him a good opportunity to get things back on track tonight. Bannister makes for a much better underdog than favorite. He is too high variance to support this price. He is coming off a bad outing, and has been known to have bad outings in clusters. There are no derivative numbers that suggest improvement off current numbers.
<o> </o>
Marlins +118
I have been saying it since the beginning of the season. The Cubs are not that good. They are even playing worse than their true potential as well, yet the market continues to price them as a good team. The market likes well, but his last two starts should be concerning, and a premium should not be priced on his arm, especially on a downtick and facing a tough lineup. His slider is not nearly as effective as it was last year, which does not bode terribly well for his chances against a solid fastball hitting team. He is backed by a bullpen that lacks depth. The Cubs lineup is underachieving, as some of their veteran players are in a prolong slump. Although they should improve off current form, a red flag has been raised as a material downgrade in their true worth should be reviewed. Nolasco is a pretty decent pitcher and is a pretty decent option as an underdog due to his high variance. He has pitched well on the road so far, and has had past success against the Cubs.