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{mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> Here are some of my larger plays for opening day.
<o> </o>
Marlins +114
I strongly feel that we have seen the best of Santana and a possible material downgrade of productivity is in the cards for him this year. The market will be slow to adjust if my prediction comes to fruition, so a secular overvaluation on him may be in the cards this season. His strikeout rate has been on a year to year decline, while his WHIP is getting worse. Coming off elbow surgery adds another bearish variable into the formula. He is also backed by a mediocre bullpen whose front end is suspect. Given the notion that Santana will be on a smaller pitch count in his first start and has been known to struggle early in seasons, this front end may be exposed. Johnson is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and still somewhat underrated. If there were to be value on him at all this season, it will probably be early on.
<o></o>The Marlins have one of the best lineups in the NL . The Mets one of the worst. The back end of their lineup is dead weight, and the front end suspect without Reyes. This leads me to believe their 3,4 hitters will have limited opportunities to drive people in.
<o> </o>
Pirates +137
The market is slowing correcting this opening line mockery out of the Pirates, but still value remains. Simply put, Padilla doesn’t warrant laying these kinds of odds to almost anyone on the road. Padilla’s line seems to be inflated due to the carry over effect from his second half surge late last year. However, he is one of the streakier pitchers in baseball, leading me to believe there should be no carry over effect. With injuries to a couple key bullpen pitchers, the Dodgers underbelly has become well below average. This should hurt them the most early in the season when starters are less likely to go deep into games. Duke is decent and a live dog in this spot. His past success against the Dodgers is also a plus.
<o> </o>
Brewers -128
The Rockies may very well represent the NL in the World Series this year. They have the best lineup in the NL, and a decent enough rotation and bullpen to compliment this huge edge at the plate. However, the injuries to Street and Buckholtz makes their bullpen a liability right now, and bullpen’s intrinsic worth is magnified early in the season. Homefield advantage is also magnified in this game, as both starters perform much better at home, and both teams bats have the propensity to do so as well. Adjusted for homefield advantage, the Brewers have the edge in every facet of this game, including their bats. Laying -128 is a bargain.
<o> </o>
Braves -125
I really think the Braves are a dangerous team this year. Their starting rotation is deep and talented, their bullpen is as good as it gets, and their lineup is well above average. The only thing holding them back is their age and potential probably injuries. But that should not be a factor early in the season. Lowe is well past his prime, but should improve off of last seasons numbers. He looked good in spring, now walking a batter in 18 innings. The depth in the Braves bullpen gives them leverage in handling him on opening day. Zambrano is being priced on name value and not recent production. He hasn’t had very solid season in 3 years, and now has a lot of miles on his arm. I think this season will be his fourth straight season below career averages. The Cubs should be in for another mediocre season, in large part because of the lack of arms in their bullpen. This problem should be magnified early on. Their lineup is average, overrated, and old, and in return, overvalued.
<o> </o>
Rangers -132
The Blue Jays are bad, and quite possibly a bottom five team this season. The Rangers have one of the better lineups in the league, and one of the most underrated bullpens in the league. The only thing holding them back is their rotation, which should be much of a concern when Feldman is on the mound. I was a big Marcum backer 2 years ago when the market was not. But he has not pitched in two years and is pitching with a brand new elbow. He didn’t pitch much in spring training so he is a big question mark. This does not bode well for the Blue Jays chances, as he has little margin of error going up against a potent lineup and being backed by an anemic one.
<o> </o>
Marlins +114
I strongly feel that we have seen the best of Santana and a possible material downgrade of productivity is in the cards for him this year. The market will be slow to adjust if my prediction comes to fruition, so a secular overvaluation on him may be in the cards this season. His strikeout rate has been on a year to year decline, while his WHIP is getting worse. Coming off elbow surgery adds another bearish variable into the formula. He is also backed by a mediocre bullpen whose front end is suspect. Given the notion that Santana will be on a smaller pitch count in his first start and has been known to struggle early in seasons, this front end may be exposed. Johnson is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and still somewhat underrated. If there were to be value on him at all this season, it will probably be early on.
<o></o>The Marlins have one of the best lineups in the NL . The Mets one of the worst. The back end of their lineup is dead weight, and the front end suspect without Reyes. This leads me to believe their 3,4 hitters will have limited opportunities to drive people in.
<o> </o>
Pirates +137
The market is slowing correcting this opening line mockery out of the Pirates, but still value remains. Simply put, Padilla doesn’t warrant laying these kinds of odds to almost anyone on the road. Padilla’s line seems to be inflated due to the carry over effect from his second half surge late last year. However, he is one of the streakier pitchers in baseball, leading me to believe there should be no carry over effect. With injuries to a couple key bullpen pitchers, the Dodgers underbelly has become well below average. This should hurt them the most early in the season when starters are less likely to go deep into games. Duke is decent and a live dog in this spot. His past success against the Dodgers is also a plus.
<o> </o>
Brewers -128
The Rockies may very well represent the NL in the World Series this year. They have the best lineup in the NL, and a decent enough rotation and bullpen to compliment this huge edge at the plate. However, the injuries to Street and Buckholtz makes their bullpen a liability right now, and bullpen’s intrinsic worth is magnified early in the season. Homefield advantage is also magnified in this game, as both starters perform much better at home, and both teams bats have the propensity to do so as well. Adjusted for homefield advantage, the Brewers have the edge in every facet of this game, including their bats. Laying -128 is a bargain.
<o> </o>
Braves -125
I really think the Braves are a dangerous team this year. Their starting rotation is deep and talented, their bullpen is as good as it gets, and their lineup is well above average. The only thing holding them back is their age and potential probably injuries. But that should not be a factor early in the season. Lowe is well past his prime, but should improve off of last seasons numbers. He looked good in spring, now walking a batter in 18 innings. The depth in the Braves bullpen gives them leverage in handling him on opening day. Zambrano is being priced on name value and not recent production. He hasn’t had very solid season in 3 years, and now has a lot of miles on his arm. I think this season will be his fourth straight season below career averages. The Cubs should be in for another mediocre season, in large part because of the lack of arms in their bullpen. This problem should be magnified early on. Their lineup is average, overrated, and old, and in return, overvalued.
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Rangers -132
The Blue Jays are bad, and quite possibly a bottom five team this season. The Rangers have one of the better lineups in the league, and one of the most underrated bullpens in the league. The only thing holding them back is their rotation, which should be much of a concern when Feldman is on the mound. I was a big Marcum backer 2 years ago when the market was not. But he has not pitched in two years and is pitching with a brand new elbow. He didn’t pitch much in spring training so he is a big question mark. This does not bode well for the Blue Jays chances, as he has little margin of error going up against a potent lineup and being backed by an anemic one.