The Dodgers have only got a 2.1% increase in their their asking price. They were a medium play for me on the open (and still warrant a medium play). The reason why I thought this line would move was because I currently have a 2.7 to 1 ratio of dollars betting against the Dodgers to betting on them. I bet against Padilla with upper medium plays or more in both his first two starts. Finding value on Padilla and the Dodgers within my model was contradicting how the market has been recently pricing both. Being that the Dodgers have now played 2 straight extra inning games, and the Giants had the day off yesterday, we may not see any material line move unless lineup information warrants it.
As expected, the A's line move was the biggest on today's card. They current stand at -160 at pinnacle, which makes it a 15% price move from the time of post. They were a large play for me, but at the current market price, they would only warrant risking an upper medium (to win medium).
The A's game is yet another example that with the market as efficient as baseball has become, you are facing an uphill battle if you are waiting until game day to get the majority of your action down.
Best of luck today Munson.
Thanks BG. My mistake was not betting the overnight nickel line at 5dimes. I'm guessing it would have been no worse than -150. I do regret that as I have now bet Oakland -155. I have Los Angeles -141, so I feel a bit better about that price despite your proviso on the extra inning games they played.
Lineups for the most part are predictive, and when I am betting into an overnight line, the market prices is derived without 100 percent lineup transparency as well (so I am not put in a disadvantage).
Over the long hall, the benefit gained from betting into less efficiently priced lines outweighs any pricing advantage I may have with lineup information relative to the market.
There are many times in which lineup changes decrease my intrinsic value on a team I had already bet on which forces me into a partial buyback (more times than not at a loss). There are times which I add to my position due to favorable lineup information as well.
I should have surmised as much. I appreciate the look into your strategy and I'm also not surprised that you would rather take a small loss than be stuck in a position you no longer favor. The fact that lineups strengthen your plays as often as not re-inforces my idea that you are someone I can learn much from, and like I said in my PM, I really enjoy tailing your plays. Thanks again.
