These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in playoff series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 87-79 on run lines (+20.61 units, ROI: 12.4%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+1.5 vs. SEA)
Trend: Favorites are just 27-44 (38%, -34.79 units) in the last 71 games between the Blue Jays and the Yankees
Trend: Carlos Rodon has a 6.20 ERA in his seven postseason appearances in his career
Trends Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-158 vs. TOR)
Line Angles
— In that same span since 2001, shorter road favorites of less than -140 have gone 54-62 SU for -22.53 units (ROI: -19.4%)
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-137 at DET)
— Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating to 2018 have been very vulnerable; they are just 81-79 SU (-30.46 units, ROI: -19%)
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-158 vs. TOR)
Coming off wins/losses
— Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce-back options, going 57-60 SU (-18.39 units, ROI: -15.7%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+113 vs. SEA), NY YANKEES (-158 vs. TOR)
Series wins status
— Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 87-79 on run lines (+20.61 units, ROI: 12.4%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+1.5 vs. SEA)
— Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 39-43 SU (-24.81 units, ROI: -30.3%) since 2013.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-158 vs. TOR)
(901) TORONTO (96-68) at (902) NEW YORK-AL (96-71)
Trend: Under the total has gone 14-2 (+11.90 units) in last 16 games when NYY was favored vs. divisional foes
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-NYY (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: NYY is 1-4 SU against Toronto in the last two seasons with starter Carlos Rodon (6.72 ERA in these five games)
Trend: Carlos Rodon has a 6.20 ERA in his seven postseason appearances in his career
Trends Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-158 vs. TOR)
Trend: TOR is 25-16 (+9.85 units) vs. left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+129 at NYY)
(903) SEATTLE (91-73) at (904) DETROIT (90-77)
Trend: SEA is 33-47 (-14.64 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 at DET)
Trend: Jack Flaherty has a 6.53 ERA in his five postseason appearances over the last two seasons
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+113 vs. SEA)
Trend: Over the total is 8-1 (+6.90 units) in the last nine Tigers home games against AL West opponents
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-DET (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: Underdogs are on a 15-4 (78.9%, +16.33 units) surge in SEA-DET series
— The ROI on this trend is 85.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+113 vs. SEA)
Series #2: Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Trend: Favorites are just 27-44 (38%, -34.79 units) in the last 71 games between Toronto and the NY Yankees
— The ROI on this trend is -49%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-158 vs. TOR)
Stats from the last game trends
— MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored eight or more runs are on a 56-47 SU (+6.50 units, ROI: 6.3%) surge and 57-46 on run lines (+9.73 units, ROI: 9.4%) since ’14.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO
— Power surges don’t tend to last in for big underdogs in the MLB postseason, as teams playing as dogs of +130 or more coming off a game in which they hit three home runs or more are just 8-30 SU (-16.72 units, ROI: -44%) and 13-25 on run lines (-19.3 units, ROI: -50.8%) in the follow up game since 2002.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (*if they fall into this line range, +129 currently*)
Trends based on regular-season records
— In the last four playoff seasons, MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 48-45 SU (+14.27 units, ROI: 15.3%) and 59-34 on run lines (+15.08 units, ROI: 16.2%) in playoff games when not matched up against similar.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT
Totals angles
— The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone on totals is split 88-83-1. Overs have produced a return of +22.44 units, an ROI of 13.1%. Total odds have been heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): SEA-DET (o/u at 7.5), TOR-NYY (o/u at 7.5)
Divisional Round Angles
— Home-field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or it’s even. Those hosts are on a surge of 60-39 SU (+7.09 units, ROI: 7.2%) and 55-44 on run lines (+18.75 units, ROI: 18.9%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT
* Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in playoff series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 87-79 on run lines (+20.61 units, ROI: 12.4%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+1.5 vs. SEA)
Trend: Favorites are just 27-44 (38%, -34.79 units) in the last 71 games between the Blue Jays and the Yankees
Trend: Carlos Rodon has a 6.20 ERA in his seven postseason appearances in his career
Trends Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-158 vs. TOR)
Line Angles
— In that same span since 2001, shorter road favorites of less than -140 have gone 54-62 SU for -22.53 units (ROI: -19.4%)
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-137 at DET)
— Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating to 2018 have been very vulnerable; they are just 81-79 SU (-30.46 units, ROI: -19%)
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-158 vs. TOR)
Coming off wins/losses
— Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce-back options, going 57-60 SU (-18.39 units, ROI: -15.7%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+113 vs. SEA), NY YANKEES (-158 vs. TOR)
Series wins status
— Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 87-79 on run lines (+20.61 units, ROI: 12.4%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+1.5 vs. SEA)
— Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 39-43 SU (-24.81 units, ROI: -30.3%) since 2013.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-158 vs. TOR)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.(901) TORONTO (96-68) at (902) NEW YORK-AL (96-71)
Trend: Under the total has gone 14-2 (+11.90 units) in last 16 games when NYY was favored vs. divisional foes
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-NYY (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: NYY is 1-4 SU against Toronto in the last two seasons with starter Carlos Rodon (6.72 ERA in these five games)
Trend: Carlos Rodon has a 6.20 ERA in his seven postseason appearances in his career
Trends Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-158 vs. TOR)
Trend: TOR is 25-16 (+9.85 units) vs. left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+129 at NYY)
(903) SEATTLE (91-73) at (904) DETROIT (90-77)
Trend: SEA is 33-47 (-14.64 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 at DET)
Trend: Jack Flaherty has a 6.53 ERA in his five postseason appearances over the last two seasons
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+113 vs. SEA)
Trend: Over the total is 8-1 (+6.90 units) in the last nine Tigers home games against AL West opponents
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-DET (o/u at 7.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #1: Seattle Mariners at Detroit TigersTrend: Underdogs are on a 15-4 (78.9%, +16.33 units) surge in SEA-DET series
— The ROI on this trend is 85.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+113 vs. SEA)
Series #2: Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Trend: Favorites are just 27-44 (38%, -34.79 units) in the last 71 games between Toronto and the NY Yankees
— The ROI on this trend is -49%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-158 vs. TOR)
Stats from the last game trends
— MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored eight or more runs are on a 56-47 SU (+6.50 units, ROI: 6.3%) surge and 57-46 on run lines (+9.73 units, ROI: 9.4%) since ’14.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO
— Power surges don’t tend to last in for big underdogs in the MLB postseason, as teams playing as dogs of +130 or more coming off a game in which they hit three home runs or more are just 8-30 SU (-16.72 units, ROI: -44%) and 13-25 on run lines (-19.3 units, ROI: -50.8%) in the follow up game since 2002.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (*if they fall into this line range, +129 currently*)
Trends based on regular-season records
— In the last four playoff seasons, MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 48-45 SU (+14.27 units, ROI: 15.3%) and 59-34 on run lines (+15.08 units, ROI: 16.2%) in playoff games when not matched up against similar.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT
Totals angles
— The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone on totals is split 88-83-1. Overs have produced a return of +22.44 units, an ROI of 13.1%. Total odds have been heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): SEA-DET (o/u at 7.5), TOR-NYY (o/u at 7.5)
Divisional Round Angles
— Home-field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or it’s even. Those hosts are on a surge of 60-39 SU (+7.09 units, ROI: 7.2%) and 55-44 on run lines (+18.75 units, ROI: 18.9%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT