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No games today. The division series start tomorrow.
 

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Saturday, October 4

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Saturday, October 4

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MLB

Saturday, October 4

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Trend Report
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Chicago VS Milwaukee

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago Cubs' last 5 games.
Chicago Cubs is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
Chicago Cubs is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games against Milwaukee.
Chicago Cubs is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games.
Milwaukee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 9 games against Chicago Cubs.
Milwaukee is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home.

New York VS Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees' last 5 games.
NY Yankees is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games.
NY Yankees is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games against Toronto.
NY Yankees is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games.
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games against NY Yankees.
Toronto is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home.

Los Angeles VS Philadelphia
LA Dodgers is 7-0 SU in its last 7 games.
LA Dodgers is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games against Philadelphia.
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road.
LA Dodgers is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games.
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
Philadelphia is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games at home.
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers.

Detroit VS Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games.
Detroit is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games.
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games against Seattle.
Detroit is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Seattle.
Seattle is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games against Detroit.
Seattle is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games at home.
Seattle is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Detroit.


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These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Game 1 home favorites in the divisional round are on a 33-18 SU (+8.25 units, ROI: 16.2%) surge, including 3-1 last year.
Systems Match (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, TORONTO, PHILADELPHIA, SEATTLE

* Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 135-133 (-51.48 units, ROI: -19.2%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (+101 at PHI)

Trend:
Over the total is 13-7-1 (+5.30 units) in the last 21 games of the CHC-MIL series at Milwaukee
– The ROI on this trend is 26.5%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-MIL (o/u at 7.5)
Overall MLB Postseason Trends

Line angles

– Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, they are just 78-77 SU (-31.19 units, ROI: -20.1%)
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-144 vs CHC), TORONTO (-125 vs NYY), PHILADELPHIA (-123 vs LAD)

Series wins status

– Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 85-77 on run lines (+21.14 units, ROI: 13%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 vs CHC), TORONTO (-1.5 vs NYY), PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 vs LAD), SEATTLE (-1.5 vs DET)

Trends based upon regular-season records

– In the last four playoff seasons, MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 47-44 SU (+14.24 units, ROI: 15.6%) and 58-33 on run lines (+15.08 units, ROI: 16.6%) in playoff games when not matched up against similar.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT

Totals angles

– The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone 83-80-1, Overs have produced a return of +20.69 units, an ROI of 12.7%. Total odds have been heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): CHC-MIL (o/u at 7.5), NYY-TOR (o/u at 8.5), LAD-PHI (o/u at 7), DET-SEA (o/u at 7)


Divisional Round Angles

– Home field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 56-37 SU (+5.91 units, ROI: 6.4%) and 51-42 on run lines (+16.8 units, ROI: 18.1%) since 2015.

– Game 1 home favorites in the divisional round are on a 33-18 SU (+8.25 units, ROI: 16.2%) surge, including 3-1 last year.
Systems Match (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, TORONTO, PHILADELPHIA, SEATTLE

MLB Extreme Stats Systems​

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1979-1863 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -245.96 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-125 vs NYY)


Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3999-3479 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -503.51 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-125 vs NYY)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 366-181 (66.9%) for +52.99 units and an ROI of 9.7%!
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-125 vs NYY)

MLB Streak Systems​

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 235-154 in their last 389 tries (+36.67 units, ROI: 9.4%).
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (+101 at PHI)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 135-133 (-51.48 units, ROI: -19.2%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (+101 at PHI)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots​

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(931) NEW YORK-AL (96-69) at (932) TORONTO (94-68)
Trend:
TOR is 13-17 (-11.03 units) in the last 30 games vs AL East foes with starter Kevin Gausman
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-125 vs NYY)

(933) DETROIT (89-76) at (934) SEATTLE (90-72)
Trend:
DET is 33-51 (-22.85 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+1.5 at SEA)


Trend: Over the total is 56-40-2 (+12.00 units) in Tigers’ night games this season
Trend: Over the total is 59-44-5 (+10.60 units) in Mariners’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-SEA (o/u at 7)

(935) LOS ANGELES-NL (95-69) at (936) PHILADELPHIA (96-66)
Trend:
LAD is 9-2 (+7.05 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-1.5 at PHI)

Trend: PHI is just 17-23 (-10.70 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-123 vs LAD)

(937) CHICAGO-NL (94-71) at (938) MILWAUKEE (97-65)
Trend:
MIL is 11-5 SU against CHC with starter Freddy Peralta since 2021
Trend: MIL is 29-18 (+11.42 units) vs LH starters this season
Trends Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-144 vs CHC)

Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends​

Series #1: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
Trend:
Over the total is 13-7-1 (+5.30 units) in the last 21 games of the CHC-MIL series at Milwaukee
– The ROI on this trend is 26.5%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-MIL (o/u at 7.5)


Series #2: New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Trend
: Favorites are just 26-43 (37.7%, -34.23 units) in the last 69 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -49.6%
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-125 vs NYY)

Series #3: Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies
Trend:
PHILADELPHIA is 8-2 (80%, +6.39 units) in L10 games hosting LAD
– The ROI on this trend is 63.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-123 vs LAD)

Series #4: Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners
Trend:
Underdogs are on 13-4 (76.5%, +13.48 units) surge in the SEA-DET series
– The ROI on this trend is 79.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+164 at SEA)
 

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Saturday, October 4

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
CHC at MIL02:08 PMCHC +125
U 7.5
+500 +500
NYY at TOR04:08 PMTOR -130
O 8.5
+500 +500
LAD at PHI06:38 PMPHI -120
O 7.0
+500 +500
DET at SEA08:38 PMSEA -190
U 7.0
+500 +500
 

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BEST BETS MLB PLAYOFFS !

10/04/2025......................3 - 4 - 0.............................42.85%..........................- 11.00
10/02/2025......................3 - 3 - 0.............................50.00%..........................- 1.75
10/01/2025......................5 - 2 - 0.............................71.42%..........................+ 15.00
09/30/2025......................2 - 6 - 0.............................25.00%.......................... - 20.75


TOTALS.........................13 - 15 - 0.............................46.42%...........................- 18.50
 

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Sunday’s 6-pack:
Over last 120 years, players who hit 7+ triples, 6+ HR’s in a month:
1911— Frank Schilte
1914— Ed Lennox
1921— Ty Cobb
1929— Babe Herman
1957— Willie Mays
2025— Daylen Lile

Quote of the Day
“The main thing we need to do is to keep doing what we’re doing but do them better. Fundamentally we’re not doing the wrong things, we’re just not doing them well enough. It’s a lack of concentration, and part of that is coaching, too, so I’ll take my share of the responsibility.”
North Carolina coach Bill Belichick

Sunday’s quiz
Since 2021, which NFL team has the best record against the spread?

Saturday’s quiz
Jared Goff played his college football for the Cal Golden Bears.

Friday’s quiz
In the history of the Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans, Warren Moon has thrown for the most yards.

*****************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday…….

— UCLA 42, Penn State 37
Bruins, with an interim head coach, were 24.5-point underdogs.
UCLA led this game 27-7 at halftime.
Nico Iamaleava threw for 166 yards, 2 TD’s, ran for 128 yards, 3 TD’s.

— Miami 28, Florida State 22
Carson Beck threw for 240 yards, four TD’s
Hurricanes led 28-3 after three quarters, hung on for the win.
Miami was +3 in turnovers; they had 12 penalties for 98 yards.

— Florida 29, Texas 21
Florida gets its first I-A win in four tries.
Gators had scored total of 33 points in their three losses.
Texas is 0-2 on road, losing this game, also 14-7 at Ohio State.

— Alabama 30, Vanderbilt 14
Game was tied 14-14 at halftime.
Crimson Tide outgained Vandy, 486-333.
Alabama threw for 340 yards (11.0 Yards/attempt)

— UNLV 31, Wyoming 17
October 4th, and it snowed in Laramie, Wyoming.
5-0 Rebels led this game 24-3 at halftime.
UNLV ran for 153 yards, was +2 in turnovers.

Upsets of the Day:
UCLA (+24.5) 42, Penn State 37
Ball State (+14.5) 20, Ohio U 14
Arkansas State (+13.5) 31, Texas State 30
Akron (+8.5) 28, Central Michigan 22
Virginia (+7.5) 30, Louisville 27 OT
Florida (+6.5) 29, Texas 21
Wake Forest (+6.5) 30, Virginia Tech 23
Temple (+6.5) 27, Tex-San Antonio 21

— Brewers 9, Cubs 3

Milwaukee scored six runs in the first inning.
Jackson Chourio had 3 RBI, but aggravated his leg injury.
Freddy Peralta got 17 outs, allowed two runs.

— Blue Jays 10, New York 1
Alejandro Kirk hit two home runs.
Leading 2-1, Blue Jays scored four runs in 7th, four more in 8th.
This was Toronto’s first win in a playoff game since 2016

— Dodgers 5, Phillies 3
Teoscar Hernandez hit a 3-run homer in the 7th inning.
Phillies led 3-0 after five innings.
Tyler Glasnow got 5 outs, in his first relief stint in seven years.

— Tigers 3, Mariners 2 (11)
Zack McKinstry had the game-winning single in the 11th inning.
Detroit used 8 pitchers; they were 2-8 with RISP.
McKinstry’s hit was Detroit’s only hit after the fifth inning.

Famous birthdays, October 5th:
Trace Armstrong, 60
Jeff Lebo, 59
Rex Chapman, 58
Grant Hill, 53
Kate Winslet, 50
Jesse Palmer, 47
Travis Kelce, 36
Zack Littell, 30
Michael Hoecht, 28

— Virginia 30, Louisville 27 OT
Virginia led 24-14 after three quarters.
Louisville forced OT, kicked 50-yard FG with 1:08 left.
4-1 Louisville outgained the 5-1 Cavaliers, 383-237

— Clemson 38, North Carolina 10
Clemson’s first four drives: 16 plays, 253 yards, 28 points.
Tigers passed for 399 yards (10.2 yards/attempt)
North Carolina is 1-3 vs I-A teams, giving up 34-48-38 points in losses.

— Washington 24, Maryland 20
Maryland led this game 20-0 in the third quarter.
Washington’s last five drives: 45 plays, 298 yards, 24 points.
Maryland’s last four drives: 19 plays, 52 yards, no points.

— Appalachian State 27, Oregon State 23
App State led 17-0 in first quarter; they were +3 in turnovers.
Beavers outgained App State, 456-354.
Oregon State QB Murphy threw for 358 yards, 2 TD’s, 2 INTs

— Texas Tech 35, Houston 11
Tech QB Morton threw for 345 yards and a TD.
5-0 Red Raiders led 25-11 at halftime.
Tech outgained Houston, 552-267.
 

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MLB
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Sunday, October 5

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Sunday, October 5


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MLB

Sunday, October 5


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Trend Report
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New York VS Toronto

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees' last 6 games.
NY Yankees is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games.
NY Yankees is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games against Toronto.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees' last 5 games on the road.
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home.
Toronto is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against NY Yankees.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 9 games against an opponent in the American League East Division division.

Detroit VS Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 9 games.
Detroit is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games.
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games against Seattle.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 11 games on the road.
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
Seattle is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home.
Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Detroit.
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Seattle's last 14 games against an opponent in the American League.


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Sunday, October 5

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
NYY at TOR04:08 PMTOR +130
U 8.5
+500 +500
DET at SEA08:03 PMSEA +115
O 6.0
+500 +500
 

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These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: UNDER the total has gone 14-1 (+12.90 units) in L15 games where NY Yankees was favored vs divisional foes

Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-TOR (o/u at 8.5)

* Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of run scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored 7 runs or more, teams are 40-26 SU (+17.52 units, ROI: 26.5%).

System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+129 vs NYY)

Trend: UNDERDOGS are on 14-4 (77.8%, +15.06 units) surge in SEA-DET h2h series

– The R.O.I. on this trend is 83.7%

Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+113 vs DET)
 

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Overall MLB Postseason Trends

Line angles

ROAD FAVORITES of -140 or higher are on a 33-18 SU run since ‘01 (+5.65 units, ROI: +11.1%)
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-158 at TOR)

In that same span since ’01, shorter ROAD FAVORITES of less than -140 have gone 54-62 for -22.53 units (ROI: -19.4%)
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-137 at SEA)

Coming off wins/losses

HOME TEAMS coming off a LOSS in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 56-59 SU (-18.54 units, ROI: -16.1%) since ‘16.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+113 vs DET)

HOME TEAMS coming off a WIN in a series game have been a better option, 74-63 SU (-5.54 units, ROI: -3.9%) in that same time span.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+129 vs NYY)

Series wins status

For teams leading in a series, HOME FIELD advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 70-48 SU (+14.84 units, ROI: 12.6%) and 62-56 on run lines (+14.63 units, ROI: 12.4%) since ’13.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO

Stats from last game trends

Teams that are favored in a MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 50-62 SU (-33.41 units, ROI: -29.8%) and 36-76 on run lines (-32.08 units, ROI: -28.6%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES


MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored 8 or more runs are on a 54-47 SU (+4.23 units, ROI: 4.2%) surge and 55-46 on run lines (+7.25 units, ROI: +7.2%) since ’14.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO

Power surges don’t tend to last in for big underdogs in the MLB postseason, as teams playing as dogs of +130 or more coming off a game in which they hit 3 home runs or more are just 8-30 SU (-16.72 units, ROI: -44%) and 13-25 on run lines (-19.3 units, ROI: -50.8%) in the follow up game since ’02.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (*if they fall into this line range, +129 currently*)

Teams playing as UNDERDOGS in a MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 34-60 SU (-17.85 units, ROI: -19%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+113 vs DET)

Trends based upon regular-season records

In the last four playoff seasons, MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 48-44 SU (+15.82 units, ROI: 17.2%) and 59-33 on run lines (+16.08 units, ROI: 17.5%) in playoff games when not matched up against similar.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT


Totals angles

The last four MLB postseasons have been VERY good for OVER bettors, as that side of the total has gone on totals is split 86-81-1, OVER’s have produced a return of +22.61 units, a ROI of 13.5%. Total odds have been heavily shaded towards UNDER’s in recent postseasons.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): NYY-TOR (o/u at 8.5), DET-SEA (o/u at 5.5)

Divisional Round Angles

Home field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 58-39 SU (+4.82 units, ROI: 5%) and 53-44 on run lines (+16.27 units, ROI: 16.8%) since ‘15.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO

Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of run scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored 7 runs or more, teams are 40-26 SU (+17.52 units, ROI: 26.5%).
Systems Match (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+129 vs NYY)
 

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BEST BETS MLB PLAYOFFS !

10/05/2025......................2 - 2 - 0..............................50.00%........................+ 1.25
10/04/2025......................3 - 4 - 0.............................42.85%..........................- 11.00
10/02/2025......................3 - 3 - 0.............................50.00%..........................- 1.75
10/01/2025......................5 - 2 - 0.............................71.42%..........................+ 15.00
09/30/2025......................2 - 6 - 0.............................25.00%.......................... - 20.75


TOTALS.........................15 - 17 - 0.............................46.87%...........................- 17.25
 

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Monday’s 6-pack:
Week 6 NFL spreads:
— Eagles (-7.5) @ Giants
— Broncos (-7.5) vs Jets (@ London)
— Browns @ Pittsburgh (-5.5)
— Chargers (-5.5) @ Miami
— Cardinals @ Indianapolis (-5.5)
— Seahawks @ Jacksonville (-1.5)

Quote of the Day
“I don’t really know what to think about that. I don’t even know. I really don’t even know. That’s ‘How to Lose a Game 101.’ I don’t know. It was crazy.”
Cardinals’ QB Kyler Murray

Monday’s quiz
Last time Toronto Blue Jays won a playoff series was 2016; who did they beat?

Sunday’s quiz
Since 2021, Detroit Lions have the NFL’s best record against the spread (51-22)

Saturday’s quiz
Jared Goff played his college football for the Cal Golden Bears.

*************************************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…….

Titans 22, Cardinals 21
Arizona led 21-6 with 13:00 left; RB Demercado appeared to run for a 72-yard TD to salt the game away, but he dropped the ball just before he crossed the goal line; it became a touchback.
Arizona’s first four drives: 22 plays, 173 yards, 21 points.
Arizona rest of game: 42 plays, 185 yards, no points.
Cardinals lost their last three games by total of five points.
Rookie QB Ward threw for 265 yards in his first NFL win.
Titans’ last three drives: 25 plays, 205 yards, TD-INT-FG
WR Ridley caught five passes for 131 yards.
Tennessee also scored a TD when Arizona picked off a Ward pass with 5:00 left, but the guy fumbled and the Titans recovered it in the end zone for a TD.

Broncos 21, Eagles 17
Eagles led 17-3 after the third quarter.
Broncos in first 3 quarters: 45 plays, 171 yards, 3 points.
Denver in 4th quarter: 27 plays, 190 yards, 18 points.
Down 17-10, Denver scored a TD with 7:36 left; they went for 2 points and the lead, and made it, talking the lead for good.
Eagles’ last five drives: 20 plays, 54 yards, no points.
Eagles are 4-1, but they’ve been outgained in all five games.
Philly converted 2-11 third down plays, Broncos 5-16.
Philly is 7-10-1 ATS in last 18 games as a home favorite.

Buccaneers 38, Seahawks 35
Buccaneers kicked a 39-yard FG at the gun for a walk-off win.
Tampa Bay is 3-0 on road, with wins by 1-3-3 points.
Tampa Bay is 13-2 ATS last 15 games as a road underdog.
Mayfield threw for 379 yards, two TD’s.
Both teams averaged 10+ yards/pass attempt.
Seahawks’ first 3 drives: 15 plays, 95 yards, no points.
Seahawks’ last six drives: 30 plays, 311 yards, 35 points, one INT
Seattle is 7-13-1 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite.

Panthers 27, Dolphins 24
Carolina drove 78 yards, scored game-winning TD with 1:59 left.
RB Dowdle ran ball 23 times for 206 yards and a TD.
Panthers outgained Miami, 418-248.
Carolina won both its home games, scoring 30-27 points.
Miami led 17-0 with 5:00 left in first half.
Dolphins ran the ball 14 times for only 19 yards.
Dolphins are 0-3 on road, giving up 30.3 ppg.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 9-13-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.

Vikings 21, Browns 17
Vikings drove 80 yards in 10 plays, scored game-winning TD with 0:25 left.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 28-10 SU in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 20-13-3 ATS as a favorite.
Vikings are first team in ’25 to gain more than 277 yards vs Cleveland.
Rookie QB Gabriel threw for 190 yards, 2 TD’s in his first NFL start.
Rookie RB Judkins ran for 110 yards on 23 carries.
Minnesota converted 3-9 on third down, Cleveland 3-15.
In their 1-4 start, Browns have scored 16-17-13-10-17 points.

Patriots 23, Bills 20
New England led 6-3 at halftime.
Patriots kicked a 52-yard FG with 0:15 left for the win.
Patriots scored 33-42-23 points in wins, 13-14 in losses.
New England is 2-0 on road (33-27 @ Miami/23-20 here)
Bills outgained NE 363-338, but had 3 turnovers (minus-2)
Buffalo in first half: 27 plays, 125 yards, 3 points.
Buffalo in 2nd half: 36 plays, 263 yards, 17 points.
Patriots are 2-5 SU/5-2 ATS in last seven visits to Buffalo.

Famous birthdays, October 6th:
Tony Dungy, 70
Alfredo Griffin, 68
Elisabeth Shue, 62
Rubén Sierra, 60
Jeremy Sisto, 51
Freddy Garcia, 49
Jake Bauers, 30
Bryson Stott, 28
Herb Jones, 27
Trevor Lawrence, 26
Kyle Pitts, 25
Jonathan Kuminga, 23

— Blue Jays 13, New York 7
Toronto led 11-0 in the fourth inning.
Daulton Varsho was 4-for-5, scoring 4 runs, with 4 RBI
Toronto leads series 2-0; Game 3 is Tuesday in New York.

— Mariners 3, Tigers 2
Julio Rodriguez won the game with an 8th inning double.
Skubal pitched 7 innings, but Tigers got only three hits.
Series is tied, 1-1; Game 3 is Tuesday in Detroit.

Texans 44, Ravens 10
Texans’ first five drives: 36 plays, 266 yards, 31 points.
QB Stroud threw for 244 yards, four TD’s.
Houston outgained the Ravens, 417-207.
Texans won last two games 26-0/44-10, after an 0-3 start.
QB Jackson didn’t play; Baltimore trailed 24-3 at halftime.
Baltimore’s first six drives: 28 plays, 112 yards, 7 points.
Ravens gave up 41-38-37-44 points in their four losses.
Ravens are giving up 409.4 yards/game.

Saints 26, Giants 14
Giants led 14-3 New Orleans early in the second quarter.
Rattler threw an 87-yard TD pass to Shaheed.
Howden returned a fumble 86 yards for TD on first play of 4th quarter.
Saints converted 7-15 on third down, Giants 3-10
Giants’ first two drives: 16 plays, 129 yards, 14 points.
Giants rest of game: 53 plays, 207 yards, no points.
Giants are 5-9-1 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Giants committed 5 turnovers, had 8 penalties for 95 yards.

Cowboys 37, Jets 22
Cowboys in first half: 32 plays, 298 yards, 23 points.
Dallas led 23-3 at halftime.
Since 2021, Cowboys are 12-6 ATS as a road favorite.
Dallas scored 40-40-37 in wins/tie, 20-14 in losses.
Jets are 10-17 ATS in last 27 games as a home underdog.
Jets are 6-19-1 ATS last 26 games vs NFC teams.
Jets are 8-16-1 ATS in last 25 games coming off a loss.
Jets are 8-17-1 ATS last 26 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.

Colts 40, Raiders 6
Indy went 3/out on their first five drive.
Colts’ next six drives: 47 plays, 295 yards, six TD’s.
Colts are 3-0 at home, scoring 33-29-40 points.
Under Steichen, Indy is 7-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Raiders drove 80 yards, kicked FG on their first drive.
Raiders’ next six drives: 26 plays, 121 yards, no points.
Las Vegas lost last four games, giving up 20-41-25-40 points.
Raiders are 20-26-1 ATS in last 47 games coming off a loss.

Commanders 27, Chargers 10
Washington’s first two drives: 8 plays, 30 yards, no points.
Washington’s next four drives: 27 plays, 177 yards, 20 points.
QB Daniels is 16-7 as an NFL starter.
Commanders are 7-3 ATS last 10 games with a spread of 3 or fewer points.
Chargers’ first two drives: 18 plays, 119 yards, 10 points.
Chargers rest of game: 47 plays, 221 yards, no points.
QB Herbert has been sacked 16 times in Chargers’ first five games.
Chargers’ WR Keenan Allen caught his 1,000th career pass.

Lions 37, Bengals 24
Lions led 14-3 at halftime.
Detroit’s first two drives in 2nd half: 12 plays, 108 yards, 14 points.
Lions won last three games, scoring 52-38-34-37 points.
Detroit is +7 in turnovers in its last four games.
Bengals lost last three games, by a combined 113-37.
Lions are 12-2 ATS last 14 games as a road favorite.
Detroit is 16-7 ATS in last 23 games vs AFC teams
Detroit is 25-11 ATS last 36 games coming off a win.
 

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MLB
Weather Report

Monday, October 6

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MLB
Dunkel

Monday, October 6


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MLB

Monday, October 6


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Trend Report
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Los Angeles VS Philadelphia

The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers' last 5 games.
LA Dodgers is 8-0 SU in its last 8 games.
LA Dodgers is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games against Philadelphia.
LA Dodgers is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games.
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games against LA Dodgers.
Philadelphia is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games at home.

Chicago VS Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago Cubs' last 5 games.
Chicago Cubs is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games.
Chicago Cubs is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago Cubs' last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 9 games.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 10 games against Chicago Cubs.
Milwaukee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago Cubs.


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These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Since 2014, teams have bounced back well from a divisional round game in which their bullpen blew a save, going 33-22 SU (+10.25 units, ROI: 18.6%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+109 vs LAD)

* Since 2001, shorter road favorites of less than -140 have gone 54-62 for -22.53 units (ROI: -19.4%) in the playoffs
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-132 at PHI)

* Since 2013, the number seven has been key in terms of runs scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored seven runs or more, teams are 41-26 SU (+18.79 units, ROI: 28%).
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-132 vs CHC)

Overall MLB Postseason Trends​

Line angles


– In that same span since 2001, shorter road favorites of less than -140 have gone 54-62 for -22.53 units (ROI: -19.4%)
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-132 at PHI)

– Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, they are just 80-78 SU (-30.34 units, ROI: -19.2%)
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-132 vs CHC)

Coming off wins/losses

– Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 57-59 SU (-17.27 units, ROI: -14.9%) since ‘16.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+109 vs LAD)

Series wins status

– For teams leading in a series, home field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 71-48 SU (+16.11 units, ROI: 13.5%) and 63-56 on run lines (+15.63 units, ROI: 13.1%) since ’13.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

Stats from the last game trends

– MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored eight or more runs are on a 55-47 SU (+5.50 units, ROI: 5.4%) surge and 56-46 on run lines (+8.25 units, ROI: 8.1%) since 2014.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

– Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series’ prior game are just 35-60 SU (-16.58 units, ROI: -17.5%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (+108 at MIL)


Totals angles

– The last four MLB postseasons have been VERY good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone on totals is split 87-82-1, Overs have produced a return of +22.55 units, an ROI of 13.3%. Total odds have been heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): LAD-PHI (o/u at 7.5), CHC-MIL (o/u at 8)

Divisional Round Angles

– Home field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 59-39 SU (+6.09 units, ROI: 6.2%) and 54-44 on run lines (+17.27 units, ROI: 17.6%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

– Since 2013, the number seven has been key in terms of runs scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored seven runs or more, teams are 41-26 SU (+18.79 units, ROI: 28%).
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-132 vs CHC)

– Since 2014, teams have bounced back well from a divisional round game in which their bullpen blew a save, going 33-22 SU (+10.25 units, ROI: 18.6%). These follow-up games also tend to go Under on totals, 30-22 (+5.9 units, ROI: 11.3%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+109 vs LAD)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-PHI (o/u at 7.5)

Series #1: Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies
Trend:
PHILADELPHIA is 8-3 (72.7%, +5.24 units) in the last 11 games hosting LAD
– The ROI on this trend is 47.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+109 vs LAD)

Series #2: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
Trend:
Over the total is 14-7-1 (66.7%, +6.30 units) in the last 22 games of the CHC-MIL series at Milwaukee
– The ROI on this trend is 30%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-MIL (o/u at 8)
 

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Monday, October 6

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
LAD at PHI06:08 PMPHI +100
U 7.5
+500 +500
CHC at MIL09:08 PMMIL -135
O 7.5
+500 +500
 

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BEST BETS MLB PLAYOFFS !

10/06/2025......................2 - 1 - 0.............................66.66%........................+ 5.00
10/05/2025......................2 - 2 - 0.............................50.00%........................+ 1.25
10/04/2025......................3 - 4 - 0.............................42.85%........................- 11.00
10/02/2025......................3 - 3 - 0.............................50.00%........................- 1.75
10/01/2025......................5 - 2 - 0.............................71.42%........................+ 15.00
09/30/2025......................2 - 6 - 0.............................25.00%........................ - 20.75


TOTALS.........................17 - 18 - 0.............................48.57%........................- 12.25
 

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Tuesday’s 6-pack:
NFL QB’s who started in Week 5, who played at Oklahoma:
— Dillon Gabriel
— Jalen Hurts
— Baker Mayfield
— Kyler Murray
— Spencer Rattler
— Caleb Williams

Quote of the Day
“I feel very comfortable. It’s a fair question. We score 3 points in three games in the first half. I totally understand that. But right now, it’s going to remain the same.”
Bengals coach Zac Taylor, on his remaining the play caller

Tuesday’s quiz
Patrick Mahomes’ father pitched for six different teams in his 11-year major league career; what did he spend the most time with (5 years)?

Monday’s quiz
Last time Toronto Blue Jays won a playoff series was 2016; they beat Texas in that series.

Sunday’s quiz
Since 2021, Detroit Lions have the NFL’s best record against the spread (51-22)

************************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……

College football conference trends (in conference games):

American
Home teams 4-9 ATS
Favorites 9-4 ATS

ACC
Road teams 12-8 ATS

Big 18
Underdogs 12-7 ATS

Big X
Favorites 12-7 ATS

Conference USA
Home teams 5-2 ATS

Mid-American
Home teams 7-3 ATS

Mountain West
Home teams 3-4 ATS

SEC
Home underdogs 4-0 ATS
Home teams 11-5 ATS

Sun Belt
Home teams 9-1 ATS

NFL divisional trends:
AFC East
Home teams 1-4 ATS divisional games
4-6 ATS non-divisional games

AFC North
4-11 ATS non-divisional games

AFC South
8-5 ATS non-divisional games

AFC West
6-7 ATS non-divisional games

NFC East
8-6 ATS non-divisional games

NFC North
7-5 ATS non-divisional games

NFC South
Non-divisional road underdogs 5-3 ATS

NFC South
Home teams 0-4 ATS divisional games
7-5 ATS non-divisional games

— This is only the 4th time ever that every NFL team has a loss by Week 5.

Famous birthdays, October 7th:
José Cardenal, 82
Judy Landers, 67
Dylan Bakler, 66
Priest Holmes, 52
Omar Miller, 47
Evan Longoria, 40
Chase Daniel, 39
Mookie Betts, 33
Jesus Sanchez, 28
Tutu Atwell, 26

— NBA season starts in a couple weeks; NBA uses their preseason to market their game all over the world. Just this month, they’ll have games in:
Adu Dhabi
Australia
China
Puerto Rico
Vancouver, Canada
In regular season, they’ll have NBA games in England, Germany, Mexico City.

— White Sox IF Colson Montgomery hit 21 home runs this year in 71 games, the most home runs EVER by a player who didn’t hit a home run before the All-Star break.

— St Louis Cardinals are probably going to make big changes this winter:
2024: 83-79…….2,869,783 fans at home games (35,872/game)
2025: 78-84…….2,250,007 fans at home games (27,777/game)
Cardinals missed the playoffs the last three years; last time they missed the playoffs 4+ years in a row was 1988-95.

— Texas Rangers hired Skip Schumaker as their new manager; he went 84-78 managing the Marlins in 2023, then went 62-100 last year and he surprisingly resigned.

— Saturday night, Fresno State held off Nevada 20-17 in the Mountain West; Fresno held the ball for the last 8:42 of the game to preserve their win. 15 plays, 68 yards, no punts.

— Sunday in England, Dillon Gabriel was 41st quarterback to start for the Cleveland Browns, since 1999.

— Time flies; the NHL season starts tonight, with three games scheduled.
 

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MLB
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Tuesday, October 7

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MLB

Tuesday, October 7


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Trend Report
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Seattle VS Detroit

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games.
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games against Detroit.
Seattle is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 10 games.
Detroit is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games.
Detroit is 0-7 SU in its last 7 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle.

Toronto VS New York
Toronto is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games.
Toronto is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games against NY Yankees.
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees.
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of NY Yankees' last 15 games.
NY Yankees is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees' last 5 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Yankees' last 7 games when playing at home against Toronto.


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Tuesday, October 7

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
SEA at DET04:08 PMSEA -135
U 7.5
+500 +500
TOR at NYY08:08 PMNYY -160
U 8.0
+500 +500
 

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