ML parlay question....

[Furmanski]

I know this question is asked every week, but here is my scenario...

Got an 8 team parlay, with a majority of ML's, so $200 pays $1220.

Football - 119 Ohio State -400 for Game
Football - 136 South Carolina -500 for Game
Football - 137 Georgia -500 for Game
Football - 147 Army/Rice over 54 -110 for Game
Football - 148 Rice -340 for Game
Football - 170 Oregon -540 for Game
Football - 171 Arizona State -540 for Game
Football - 176 Houston U -700 for Game

Last 2 games are Arizona St and Houston.

Currently, the other sides are Washington +320 and Tulane +480.

Should I bet $100 on each ML on these, or ride it out. My biggest concern is Washington beating Ariz. St.

Thoughts??

 

[Legend-I-Aint]

Washington will not beat ASU

 

[Furmanski]

Guess I am gonna ride it out. Not a big deal either way, and got lucky with UGA and Oregon already.

 

[Brotherwo]

ALWAYS hedge

 

[Furmanski]

Just calculated it....if I put $100 on Washington, it would be a profit of $120, so I am not really concerned with that. Don't think Houston will lose.

Just gonna let it go. Thought there was gonna be a way to make more off the hedge. Book owes me a lot....hope it's more after these.

F' it.

 

[CowboyT]

How about $50 on each ML?

If neither dog wins, you net $1120.
If Wash wins, you net -$90.
If Tulane wins, you net -$10.
If Wash and Tulane win, you net $100.

Vegas probability looks like (to win):
Tulane = .1724
Wash = .2381
For both to win = .0411

 

[Furmanski]

How about $50 on each ML?

If neither dog wins, you net $1120.
If Wash wins, you net -$90.
If Tulane wins, you net -$10.
If Wash and Tulane win, you net $100.

Vegas probability looks like (to win):
Tulane = .1724
Wash = .2381
For both to win = .0411

Shit dude....should have posted this earlier. You are the man. Should have posed this question earlier. I hope Ariz. St. looks good early.

Thank you very much for the information.

 

[pubguy]

i woulda put $300 on Wash ML and $200 Tulane. The hardest thing to find in gambling is a guaranteed winner. I'm pulling for you. BOL

 

[CowboyT]

Shit dude....should have posted this earlier. You are the man. Should have posed this question earlier. I hope Ariz. St. looks good early.

Thank you very much for the information.

Sorry I couldn't help out on this one. Anyway, for the future, here's what I did (for the Vegas probabilities):

Say a team is ML at +495 and the opposing team is -505. Vegas assumed probability is approx, then, +500/-500 for the dog/fave.

For the dog probability= 1-(500/(500+100)) = .1667 to win (makes sense they are paying "five to one").

For the fave = 1 - .1667 = .8333 to win (pays one to five)

 

[CowboyT]

Sorry, to add on, for two teams, it's just the two teams probability multiplied (since they are mutually exclusive):

Two teams at +500 (prob for both)
.1667*.1667 = .02778

And then for neither to win, prob would be 1 less all the other outcomes:
1-.1667-.1667-.0278= .6388

The assumed probability for your situation is .5484.

You got it. Good luck. :toast:

 

[Furmanski]

Just hope Ariz. St. doesnt blow it for me. The only game I was concerned about. 10-10 in the 2nd.

 

[wemdomer04]

GL my friend!!!! love the play!!!!!!!!!!:toast:

 

[Furmanski]

If Wash. is up at the half, I am going to bet $500 on them 2nd half to guarantee a profit (assuming Houston wins as 17 point favs).

 

[Furmanski]

I let it ride....didn't bet Wash, so i hope this holds up.

GO ARIZ ST and HOUSTON.

 

[Furmanski]

God, come on Ariz. St. Finally they score.

Shit is driving me crazy.

 

[Furmanski]

1 more....Come on Houston, close it out for me.

 

[Jstack34]

You got it on lock man

 

[Furmanski]

You got it on lock man

I hope so...bookie owes me $2900 already, but this one will be sweet. Never hit an 8 team parlay regardless of ML's or straight. I don't care if Houston wins by 1.

 

[Furmanski]

:cripwalk::cripwalk:

First 8 teamer I have ever hit.

 

[GE4511]

congrats
:toast: