Miz 11-09-08

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Miz

At the feast of egos, everyone leaves hungry.
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Split em last night. Pacers took care of home court and even covered the steamed up valueless line at -9. Bulls had control and then give up a 20-4 run to start the 4th quarter, i guess the 82% of the public can be right sometimes... just not more often than they are wrong. On to today...

Toronto -3

I like Toronto coming off of 2 losses and being a short fav, but I like fading a young Charlotte team coming off a big home win against New Orleans even more. Those guys are probably still hungover from Friday night's party. Had new orleans won that game, I think this line would be closer to 6. I'll take it at -3... even though the play is a little bit square.

New York Knicks +4.5 (or whatever I can get)

Why would I back Utah on the road as a medium favorite? Last year they were 19-24 straight up on the road. Not much has changed in regard to personnel and the knicks have improved a bit. None the less, I'll take the points and the Knicks at home. Utah at home is a totally different team.

LA Clippers +4 (or whatever I can get)

I just see the Mavs as they type of team that consistently plays to the level of their opponents. They are also in a bit of a look ahead spot to the Lakers at home. I see some value in the filthy home pup here. This Clippers team is desp for a win. Let's face it, they aren't going to go 0-fer on the season... and being 0-6 is a perfect time to back them as they are undervalued going up against a public team on their home court. On the road I can't lay chalk with the Mavs; and as I see the pubby lining up to do just that, I feel better about backing the home dog in this one.

LA Lakers -7.5

Ok, Houston is in game 3 of a five game road trip (of which they've gone 1-1 so far). The lakers are coming off a home game and 3 days of rest. 7.5 is a funny number. 7 is usually the threshold of the number of points you need to keep you from getting moosed at the end of the game when the fouls come. So I see a 7.5 point line as begging for underdog action. While it is true that key numbers in basketball are 3,6,9 etc, I have noticed that a lot of games are settled by 7 points. Regardless of that, I don't think Houston will be at the top of their game for this one. They beat the clippers... fine. They played sloppy ball against the Blazers the night before. They won't get away with playing like that against the lakers at their pad.

YTD(17-21)
 

Miz

At the feast of egos, everyone leaves hungry.
Joined
Aug 29, 2008
Messages
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Thanks Salt,

Hedged to get lakers at -7
clips +5.5
NYK +4.5

GL
 

Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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I think most people feel that the only "key" number in the NBA is in fact that number you talked about a lot in the Lakers write-up:

7

And your logic is sound there, because if we assume that 7 is the accepted "key" number in the NBA, then yes, Vegas set that line to get under-dog action since the Lakers are a big public team now...

I don't necessarily believe there are any "key" numbers in the NBA (but there are definite key numbers in the NFL), but if I had to pick one, I would agree with the general consensus that I have seen on forums over the years and that is 7...Just curious to the source you may have gotten the 3, 6 & 9 at, just for my curiosity...Thanx...

I like your write-ups...Good luck today, sir...

:103631605
 

Miz

At the feast of egos, everyone leaves hungry.
Joined
Aug 29, 2008
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Thanks Brew.

I am just going off of possessions, 3 being a possession so 3, 6, 9 are 1,2, and 3 possessions, respectively. I see so many games end in 7; just seems that the fouls at the end result in 7 pt wins quite a bit. No hard data on this, just what I perceive. I just know that when I am on a dog and they keep it close til the end, usually 7 gets the job done... when I am on a 7 pt fav, the dog usually hits a junk 3 at the buzzer to lose by 6 LOL.

I do find it interesting that LAL dropped to 7. Just surprised there is that much love for H-town on the 3rd leg of a 5 game road trip. I guess the "7 is too much mentality" is kicking in. Usually when there is that much love for the dog, the fav kicks the doors in.

Good luck to you as well my man!
 

Miz

At the feast of egos, everyone leaves hungry.
Joined
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:aktion033

4-0 Sweep
 

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