MistaFlava's 2008 NFL Record: 16-8-2 ATS (+199.00 Units) 67%
Yesterday: 5-1-1 ATS all sports (+84.00 Units)
I had my best handicapping day in a very long time yesterday going 3-1-1 ATS in the NFL (Atlanta was my only loss but what a bullshit call by the refs to screw the cover), 1-0 ATS in MLB (Phillies for 20 units) and 1-0 ATS in CFB (Tulsa -24 what a comeback). Safe to say my NFL season has been outstanding as always compared to my College Football which has once again been below par for the last few seasons (2004 and 2005 I had killer years).
My goal from here on in is to finish above 100 units (which was my goal at the beginning of the season. My play of the month on Giants +3 was huge yesterday and I have hit pretty much all my big plays in the NFL this season with only one losing week so far. Let's keep this shit rolling tonight.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 2-1 ATS (+9.50 Units)
Week 2: 1-3-1 ATS (-12.00 Units)
Week 3: ---No Plays---
Week 4: 3-2 ATS (+68.50 Units)
Week 5: 5-1 ATS (+44.00 Units)
Week 6: ---No Plays---
Week 7: 2-0 ATS (+35.00 Units)
Week 8: 3-1-1 ATS (+54.00 Units) with pending
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I can handle criticism, I am who I am and it's time to get back to a winning week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Monday, October 27
Indianapolis Colts +4 (10 Units)
The Indianapolis Colts know they need to get their act together fast because the more they continue to be no-shows in road games this season, the more their hopes of making the playoffs are fading and fading fast. They are 3-3 SU on the season which is not too bad but with New England and Pittsburgh coming up in the next two weeks, Manning and the boys need to win this game. This is the first of two games between these teams this season (they also meet on the very last week of the NFL season with the Colts playoff hopes possibly hanging in the balance of that game) and I think we are in for a dandy or a dud. The Colts won 22-20 here last September as a -7 point favorite and I cannot believe there is a full 11 point swing from last year's spread to this year's spread. The Colts are coming off a that brutal 34-14 loss at Green Bay with a whopping 75% of the betting public backing them. However, they looked pretty damn good the week before in a 31-3 blowout win over the Baltimore Ravens (a team that has now established themselves as one of the best in the AFC). You also can't forget that Peyton Manning lives for Monday Night games and all you have to do is check my conclusion in this writeup to know what I am talking about. The Colts comes into this game averaging 25.3 points per game in their last three games on 316.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.3 yards per play in those games. Tennessee's defense has been stout and they have allowed only 12.3 points per game in their last three games, allowing 296.7 total yards of offense per game in those games on 4.9 yards per play. The running game has just not been there for Indianapolis with the absence of RB Joseph Addai. I actually don't mind RB Dominic Rhodes because he has played just as well as Addai and has pretty much the same numbers this season. Tennessee has allowed their last three opponents to rush for 90.0 yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry. If the Colts can get something going on the ground, they have a serious shot in this one. In the air, QB Peyton Manning has completed 62.5% of his passes the last three games for 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Sure he has thrown 3 interceptions in those games but he has been sakced only 4 times and done a pretty good job considering what he has to work with. The Titans have allowed their last three opponents to complete 62.0% of their passes for 5.7 yards per pass attempt with 3 interceptions and 7 sacks in those games. They have a pretty good pass rush but they allow some big plays in the air and that could cost them against a guy like Manning tonight. The Titans defense has actually been horrendous on third downs the last three games allowing their opponents to convert 41.9% of them. They have also allowed their last three opponents to scored touchdowns 75.0% of the time when in the Redzone and that's going to be an issue tonight because the Colts are one of the best Redzone teams in the NFL scoring touchdowns 77.8% of the time when in there their last three games. The Colts are not afraid to go for it on 4th and short situations and they are a perfect 100% their last three games in 4th down situations. I think Manning has one of his best games all season as he leads his team to a big win tonight. My only concern is penalties for this team, something they really need to crack down on for a chance to win. Colts for me.
The Tennessee Titans are the only remaining perfect team in the NFL right now as they stand at 6-0 SU on the season. In those games the Titans have been cash money going a perfect 6-0 ATS and you and me both know both streaks cannot last forever. What you all have to understand before betting on the Titans in this game is that I don't think Tennessee has ever beat the Colts at home by more than three points. Ever. Looking back on their previous meetings, the Colts won here last season, lost by three here the season before and won big all the other times they played here before that. Sure the Titans are perfect on the season but you have to admit their level of competition has not been all that great. They have wins over Kansas City (winless), Minnesota (useless), Cincinnati (garbage), Houston (inconsistent), Jacksonville (clueless) and Baltimore (should have lost). So that means they have played against 1 or maybe 2 playoff caliber teams this season and although I think they are a good team, I really think the books are overrating them right now to the point where the lines are going to start getting crushed (like tonight's). The Titans were actually outgained by both the Vikings and Ravens but somehow found a way to win both games and that has them staying perfect again. Tennessee comes into this game averaging a nice 25.7 points per game in their last three games which is impressive but they have done that on only 313.3 total yards of offense and only 5.2 yards per play in those games (the Colts have been better over the last three games). As poorly as you think the Colts defense has played because they have allowed 21.3 points per game in their last three games, they have allowed only 317.7 total yards of offense per game in those games on only 5.2 yards per play which is quite impressive if the offense can back them up. On the ground we all know Tennessee can reallu control the clock and make some big plasy with their 151.7 rushing yards per game the last three games on 4.7 yards per carry but the Colts have been good against the run recently allowing only 107.7 rushing yards per game their last three games for 3.8 yards per carry. In the air, I don't know that QB Kerry Collings can be trusted all season long which is why I advise right now to proceed with caution while betting on this guy in the next few weeks. He has managed to complete only 54.1% of his passes the last three games for only 5.7 yards per pass attempt in those games and with the Colts improving a lot on their run defense lately, Collins is going to have to throw the ball. The Colts pass defense has allowed their last three opponents to complete 70.7% of their passes but have held those opponents to only 6.4 yards per pass attempt so they can certainly improve in this game. They have 6 sacks in their last three games with 4 interceptions to go along with those pressure packages. Just so you all know, Kerry Collins QB Rating the last three games is 65.1 and that's not good enough to win big games. I don't doubt the Titans can move the ball at times tonight but they are scoring touchdowns only 60.0% of the time when in the Redzone the last three games and that's going to cost them if the Colts find their offensive groove. The Colts defense has played a bend but don't break style recently allowing their last three opponents to score touchdowns in the Redzone only 41.7% of the time. The Colts defense is a lot better than people give them credit for despite the 34 points allowed last week. These guys have forced a whopping 10 fumbles the last three games so you can expect them to come out as aggressive as they have ever been in hopes of exposing the real Kerry Collins, something I really believe they can do tonight. I think the Titans finally lose a game at the expense of the new Mr. Monday Nights.
It's funny how the NFL works. Vegas knows exactly what they are doing in this game tonight by slapping a line of -4 on the undefeated Tennessee Titans. Many have the Titans ranked #1 in the league seeing how they have yet to lose a game. Now can you please tell my why the line is so low when the Colts are coming off a 34-14 loss at Green Bay and have also lost home games to Chicago and Jacksonville? Exactly. It doesn't make much sense but the general philosophy around this play is that INDIANAPOLIS IS 5-0 ATS IN THEIR LAST FIVE MONDAY NIGHT GAMES and if there is one guy you want to bet on when it comes to big games that need to be won, it's Peyton Manning. Now much how much the team is struggling or how bad the team is hurt, this guy is a winner and he finds a way to win games. The Titans are a very good team and they are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus AFC South opponents but this is the game that changes all of that. The Colts have lost four straight ATS wise in this series and what this really comes down to is who needs this game more than the other. I have some STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE RATINGS and the Titans are ranked #30 (SOS) in the NFL while the Colts are ranked #10 (SOS) in the NFL. I don't need to say anything more than bet on the Colts here and make some mad cash.
Trend of the Game: Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in their last five Monday Night games.
Indianapolis 28, Tennessee 17
:toast:
Yesterday: 5-1-1 ATS all sports (+84.00 Units)
I had my best handicapping day in a very long time yesterday going 3-1-1 ATS in the NFL (Atlanta was my only loss but what a bullshit call by the refs to screw the cover), 1-0 ATS in MLB (Phillies for 20 units) and 1-0 ATS in CFB (Tulsa -24 what a comeback). Safe to say my NFL season has been outstanding as always compared to my College Football which has once again been below par for the last few seasons (2004 and 2005 I had killer years).
My goal from here on in is to finish above 100 units (which was my goal at the beginning of the season. My play of the month on Giants +3 was huge yesterday and I have hit pretty much all my big plays in the NFL this season with only one losing week so far. Let's keep this shit rolling tonight.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 2-1 ATS (+9.50 Units)
Week 2: 1-3-1 ATS (-12.00 Units)
Week 3: ---No Plays---
Week 4: 3-2 ATS (+68.50 Units)
Week 5: 5-1 ATS (+44.00 Units)
Week 6: ---No Plays---
Week 7: 2-0 ATS (+35.00 Units)
Week 8: 3-1-1 ATS (+54.00 Units) with pending
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I can handle criticism, I am who I am and it's time to get back to a winning week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Monday, October 27
Indianapolis Colts +4 (10 Units)
The Indianapolis Colts know they need to get their act together fast because the more they continue to be no-shows in road games this season, the more their hopes of making the playoffs are fading and fading fast. They are 3-3 SU on the season which is not too bad but with New England and Pittsburgh coming up in the next two weeks, Manning and the boys need to win this game. This is the first of two games between these teams this season (they also meet on the very last week of the NFL season with the Colts playoff hopes possibly hanging in the balance of that game) and I think we are in for a dandy or a dud. The Colts won 22-20 here last September as a -7 point favorite and I cannot believe there is a full 11 point swing from last year's spread to this year's spread. The Colts are coming off a that brutal 34-14 loss at Green Bay with a whopping 75% of the betting public backing them. However, they looked pretty damn good the week before in a 31-3 blowout win over the Baltimore Ravens (a team that has now established themselves as one of the best in the AFC). You also can't forget that Peyton Manning lives for Monday Night games and all you have to do is check my conclusion in this writeup to know what I am talking about. The Colts comes into this game averaging 25.3 points per game in their last three games on 316.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.3 yards per play in those games. Tennessee's defense has been stout and they have allowed only 12.3 points per game in their last three games, allowing 296.7 total yards of offense per game in those games on 4.9 yards per play. The running game has just not been there for Indianapolis with the absence of RB Joseph Addai. I actually don't mind RB Dominic Rhodes because he has played just as well as Addai and has pretty much the same numbers this season. Tennessee has allowed their last three opponents to rush for 90.0 yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry. If the Colts can get something going on the ground, they have a serious shot in this one. In the air, QB Peyton Manning has completed 62.5% of his passes the last three games for 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Sure he has thrown 3 interceptions in those games but he has been sakced only 4 times and done a pretty good job considering what he has to work with. The Titans have allowed their last three opponents to complete 62.0% of their passes for 5.7 yards per pass attempt with 3 interceptions and 7 sacks in those games. They have a pretty good pass rush but they allow some big plays in the air and that could cost them against a guy like Manning tonight. The Titans defense has actually been horrendous on third downs the last three games allowing their opponents to convert 41.9% of them. They have also allowed their last three opponents to scored touchdowns 75.0% of the time when in the Redzone and that's going to be an issue tonight because the Colts are one of the best Redzone teams in the NFL scoring touchdowns 77.8% of the time when in there their last three games. The Colts are not afraid to go for it on 4th and short situations and they are a perfect 100% their last three games in 4th down situations. I think Manning has one of his best games all season as he leads his team to a big win tonight. My only concern is penalties for this team, something they really need to crack down on for a chance to win. Colts for me.
The Tennessee Titans are the only remaining perfect team in the NFL right now as they stand at 6-0 SU on the season. In those games the Titans have been cash money going a perfect 6-0 ATS and you and me both know both streaks cannot last forever. What you all have to understand before betting on the Titans in this game is that I don't think Tennessee has ever beat the Colts at home by more than three points. Ever. Looking back on their previous meetings, the Colts won here last season, lost by three here the season before and won big all the other times they played here before that. Sure the Titans are perfect on the season but you have to admit their level of competition has not been all that great. They have wins over Kansas City (winless), Minnesota (useless), Cincinnati (garbage), Houston (inconsistent), Jacksonville (clueless) and Baltimore (should have lost). So that means they have played against 1 or maybe 2 playoff caliber teams this season and although I think they are a good team, I really think the books are overrating them right now to the point where the lines are going to start getting crushed (like tonight's). The Titans were actually outgained by both the Vikings and Ravens but somehow found a way to win both games and that has them staying perfect again. Tennessee comes into this game averaging a nice 25.7 points per game in their last three games which is impressive but they have done that on only 313.3 total yards of offense and only 5.2 yards per play in those games (the Colts have been better over the last three games). As poorly as you think the Colts defense has played because they have allowed 21.3 points per game in their last three games, they have allowed only 317.7 total yards of offense per game in those games on only 5.2 yards per play which is quite impressive if the offense can back them up. On the ground we all know Tennessee can reallu control the clock and make some big plasy with their 151.7 rushing yards per game the last three games on 4.7 yards per carry but the Colts have been good against the run recently allowing only 107.7 rushing yards per game their last three games for 3.8 yards per carry. In the air, I don't know that QB Kerry Collings can be trusted all season long which is why I advise right now to proceed with caution while betting on this guy in the next few weeks. He has managed to complete only 54.1% of his passes the last three games for only 5.7 yards per pass attempt in those games and with the Colts improving a lot on their run defense lately, Collins is going to have to throw the ball. The Colts pass defense has allowed their last three opponents to complete 70.7% of their passes but have held those opponents to only 6.4 yards per pass attempt so they can certainly improve in this game. They have 6 sacks in their last three games with 4 interceptions to go along with those pressure packages. Just so you all know, Kerry Collins QB Rating the last three games is 65.1 and that's not good enough to win big games. I don't doubt the Titans can move the ball at times tonight but they are scoring touchdowns only 60.0% of the time when in the Redzone the last three games and that's going to cost them if the Colts find their offensive groove. The Colts defense has played a bend but don't break style recently allowing their last three opponents to score touchdowns in the Redzone only 41.7% of the time. The Colts defense is a lot better than people give them credit for despite the 34 points allowed last week. These guys have forced a whopping 10 fumbles the last three games so you can expect them to come out as aggressive as they have ever been in hopes of exposing the real Kerry Collins, something I really believe they can do tonight. I think the Titans finally lose a game at the expense of the new Mr. Monday Nights.
It's funny how the NFL works. Vegas knows exactly what they are doing in this game tonight by slapping a line of -4 on the undefeated Tennessee Titans. Many have the Titans ranked #1 in the league seeing how they have yet to lose a game. Now can you please tell my why the line is so low when the Colts are coming off a 34-14 loss at Green Bay and have also lost home games to Chicago and Jacksonville? Exactly. It doesn't make much sense but the general philosophy around this play is that INDIANAPOLIS IS 5-0 ATS IN THEIR LAST FIVE MONDAY NIGHT GAMES and if there is one guy you want to bet on when it comes to big games that need to be won, it's Peyton Manning. Now much how much the team is struggling or how bad the team is hurt, this guy is a winner and he finds a way to win games. The Titans are a very good team and they are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus AFC South opponents but this is the game that changes all of that. The Colts have lost four straight ATS wise in this series and what this really comes down to is who needs this game more than the other. I have some STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE RATINGS and the Titans are ranked #30 (SOS) in the NFL while the Colts are ranked #10 (SOS) in the NFL. I don't need to say anything more than bet on the Colts here and make some mad cash.
Trend of the Game: Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in their last five Monday Night games.
Indianapolis 28, Tennessee 17
:toast:
ope:
