MistaFlava's 2016 NFL Betting Record: 10-6-1 ATS (+54.50 Units)
I took a couple of weeks off from posting due to a busy personal schedule but looking to have a good Week 5 and bounce back from a mediocre Week 2 round of capping. Happy Thanksgiving to all my Canadian cappers.
Season Recap
Week 1: 8-1 ATS (+55.00 Units)
Week 2: 2-4-1 ATS (-0.50 Units)
Week 3: ---No Plays---
Week 4: ---No Plays---
Week 5: Pending...
I will be posting all my plays for the week periodically in this thread.
Wishing everyone a great capping season!
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Sunday, October 9
Detroit Lions +3.5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE DAY***
Call me crazy but for the Eagles to be favored on the road with a rookie QB at the helms....I dunno. I know the Lions are horrendous and they have covered the spread in only one of their games this season but this is a good matchup for them. Let's consider this for a second. QB Carson Wentz went on the road one time in his NFL Career and it was a big win in Chicago but does anyone realize the Eagles offense managed only 280 total yards of offense in that game on only 4.2 yards per play? They had no running game to speak on managing only 3.1 yards per carry and although I thought Wentz had a decent game, he was sacked two times and managed only 5.3 yards per pass attempt. The Lions defense is not good and they allow quite a bit of yardage but in their only home game of the season they managed to record 3 sacks and 1 INT but they took 17 penalties. Still only lost by 1. Defensively, the Eagles went on the road once and allowed 6.0 yards per play in that game. QB Matthew Stafford should move the ball with some ease today as they Eagles allowed 7.6 yards per pass attempt in Chicago.
The Lions had a terrible week last week but I expect a bounce back. They are 12-3 ATS in a game following a game where they score less than 15 points. If you go back into the history books as well, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. This is a bit of a wakeup call for Philadelphia. 64% of the public money is on Philly. On the road. As a 3.5 fave. With a rookie QB. Ouch! Lions take this game.
Trend of the Game: Detroit is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a game where they score 15 or less.
Detroit 22, Philadelphia 18
Houston Texans +7 (10 Units)
This one has no logic as the Vikings are on one of their best ATS runs ever and they have been the best spread team in the NFL over the course of the last 2-3 seasons. I mean they are off to a 4-0 SU and ATS start with no signs of slowing down no matter who gets hurt. One of the only reasons I am taking the Texans here is because their offense is starting to put it together. They are up to 5.1 yards per play in their last three games, averaging 107 rushing yards and 3.8 yards per carry in those games. Turnovers continues to be the issue and it's been a big issue. Having said that the Texans play disciplined football, they don't get hurt too much by penalties unlike Minnesota (8.3 penalties per game in their last three games). I'm not saying Houston is going to put up 30+ points. They won't. But Minnesota is going to have a really hard time putting points on the board as well against this defense (without JJ Watt) that has allowed their last three QB opponents a QB Rating of 63.1. That's good stuff. The Vikings offense has done virtually nothing in the teams wins and it will finally come back to haunt them. The offense is averaging only 287 total yards of offense in their last three games and only 4.9 yards per play. Watchout favored by a touchdown at home.
Houston won last week, they are a pretty consistent team and they are now 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall dating back to last season. Minnesota is off the charts with a ton of very juicy ATS stats to go crazy on but I'm not biting. They can't cover the spread in every single game. Their two home games have been in National TV. Not that kind of hype today. I really like the Houston defense to do a number on the Vikings and keep the Texans in this game long enough to steal it late.
Trend of the Game: Houston is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.
Houston 17, Minnesota 12
New York Jets +9 (10 Units)
This is the beauty of the NFL. You can look so great one week and be destroying everyone in sight and then you can come out the next week and everyone will wonder what happened. I'm not saying the Steelers are that kind of team but let's not go too crazy over their last performance okay. Big Ben, Mike Tomlin, The Steelers, all automatics when playing on Sunday or Monday Night Football. They really are. But in my recent memory this is the type of game where they struggle. I see both teams putting some points on the board in this one. I mean the Jets come into this game averaging a very respectable 5.9 yards per play on the road this season and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has a QB Rating of 105.3 away from home. Not easy to throw on the Steelers but the Jets pass protection has been good away from home (1 sack allowed in 2 games). As long as Fitzpatrick and the entire team can stay away from turnovers. They have been killer. On the defensive side of things I think Big Ben will have another decent day throwing the ball but the Jets run defense is what will keep them in this game. In two away games this season they've allowed only 79.0 rushing yards per game on 3.4 yards per carry. Not a fan of Leveon Bell in anything today (fantasy included).
Consider this please. The Jets are the kind of team that would go lose to the Browns and then go face the best team in the league the next and probably win. That is why they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games versus a team with a winning record. If you look back at the schedule and the last 6 times the Steelers won a football game, they came out the next game and covered the spread only 1 time. Yes that's right just one time in the following game after a win. I think the Jets can hold onto the ball with a sold running game and overall their D will keep them in this with a very solid run defense that will force Big Ben into 3rd and long situations. Give me Jets and the points.
Trend of the Game: NY Jets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games versus a team with a winning record.
NY Jets 21, Pittsburgh 19
Dallas Cowboys +2.5 (10 Units)
It won't be long now until Marv Lewis is given the chop. Had the team lost to Miami last week it would have gone down then and there believe me on that. So going to Dallas and facing a Cowboys team that is without Tony Romo or Dez Bryant and losing could be the end of things for the long time Bengals coach. Where are the Bengals better than the Cowboys exactly? I just don't see it. Maybe they have a bit of an advantage on the defensive side of things but other than that they haven't shown enough to earn the tag of road favorite in a game like this. Look at the Cowboys offense the last three games. They are averaging 418.3 total yards per game on 6.4 yards per play and they have done that both on the ground and in the air. Not sure that RB Ezekiel Elliott is going to have a monster day against a tough Cincy run defense but in the air QB Dak Prescott has a QB Rating of 112.5 in his last three games passing for 8.8 yards per pass attempt and 253.3 passing yards per game. He has thrown 0 interceptions in those games. That's the key right there. The Bengals secondary allows 7.3 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and that's a concern. On the flip side of things, the Cowboys defense allows yards but they also make plays. I'm not relying on them too much in this one, I think the offense gets the job done.
All these teams the Bengals keep beating are bad teams. Looking back at their schedule they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record on the season (Cowboys are 3-1 coming in). I am well aware of some tremendous stats for Andy Dalton as a road QB and how many spreads he has covered but that comes to an end today. The Cowboys have the offense, even without Dez, to win this game straight up and I think the new era in Dallas is confirmed today as the Boys move to 4-1.
Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record.
Dallas 34, Cincinnati 21
San Diego Chargers +3.5 (10 Units)
Oooooh another California battle today. These are always good and QB Philip Rivers lives for these things. Although one of the reasons the public is not smashing the Chargers as an underdog is because of how good the Oakland Raiders have been and the possibility that they are the real deal this year. I mean they have a 3-1 SU and ATS record so far and their three road wins have been more than impressive but there is concern about their one and only home game. Versus a very good passing QB. Kinda of the same as today. The Chargers are 0-2 on the road this year but they put up 20+ points in both games (Kansas City and Indianapolis) and managed 6.0 yards per play in those games. Oakland's defense in that home game against Atlanta allowed an insane 528 total yards on 8.4 yards per play. Excuse me? Melvin Gordon welcome to the fun house. The Raiders allowed 4.8 yards per carry in that game but even more shocking they allowed 11.4 yards per pass attempt and 389 passing yards to Matt Ryan and friends. Mr. Ryan had a QB Rating of 195.8 in that game. Mr. Rivers has a QB Rating of 133.8 in two road games averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt and throwing 0 interceptions so far away from home. The Chargers are converting a very impressive 42.3% of 3rd downs away from home. With RB Letavius Murray OUT for the Raiders, I think they struggle to run the ball. San Diego already allows only 3.9 yards per carry on 88.0 rushing yards per game in two road games.
Here we go. San Diego is 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games and are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games coming off a straight up loss. Dating back to last season Oakland has been a huge fade at home. They are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. The last 31 times Oakland has covered the spread in a game, the next time out they have managed to cover only 8 spreads. Out of 31. That's crazy. This team just can't find consistency and I doubt it starts against Rivers and the Chargers. THE UNDERDOG IS 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these teams and the Chargers have covered 9 of the last 13 they have played in Oakland. I'm going with Rivers and his squad as they move upstate.
Trend of the Game: The Underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these teams.
San Diego 34, Oakland 31
:toast:
I took a couple of weeks off from posting due to a busy personal schedule but looking to have a good Week 5 and bounce back from a mediocre Week 2 round of capping. Happy Thanksgiving to all my Canadian cappers.
Season Recap
Week 1: 8-1 ATS (+55.00 Units)
Week 2: 2-4-1 ATS (-0.50 Units)
Week 3: ---No Plays---
Week 4: ---No Plays---
Week 5: Pending...
I will be posting all my plays for the week periodically in this thread.
Wishing everyone a great capping season!
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, October 9
Detroit Lions +3.5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE DAY***
Call me crazy but for the Eagles to be favored on the road with a rookie QB at the helms....I dunno. I know the Lions are horrendous and they have covered the spread in only one of their games this season but this is a good matchup for them. Let's consider this for a second. QB Carson Wentz went on the road one time in his NFL Career and it was a big win in Chicago but does anyone realize the Eagles offense managed only 280 total yards of offense in that game on only 4.2 yards per play? They had no running game to speak on managing only 3.1 yards per carry and although I thought Wentz had a decent game, he was sacked two times and managed only 5.3 yards per pass attempt. The Lions defense is not good and they allow quite a bit of yardage but in their only home game of the season they managed to record 3 sacks and 1 INT but they took 17 penalties. Still only lost by 1. Defensively, the Eagles went on the road once and allowed 6.0 yards per play in that game. QB Matthew Stafford should move the ball with some ease today as they Eagles allowed 7.6 yards per pass attempt in Chicago.
The Lions had a terrible week last week but I expect a bounce back. They are 12-3 ATS in a game following a game where they score less than 15 points. If you go back into the history books as well, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. This is a bit of a wakeup call for Philadelphia. 64% of the public money is on Philly. On the road. As a 3.5 fave. With a rookie QB. Ouch! Lions take this game.
Trend of the Game: Detroit is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a game where they score 15 or less.
Detroit 22, Philadelphia 18
Houston Texans +7 (10 Units)
This one has no logic as the Vikings are on one of their best ATS runs ever and they have been the best spread team in the NFL over the course of the last 2-3 seasons. I mean they are off to a 4-0 SU and ATS start with no signs of slowing down no matter who gets hurt. One of the only reasons I am taking the Texans here is because their offense is starting to put it together. They are up to 5.1 yards per play in their last three games, averaging 107 rushing yards and 3.8 yards per carry in those games. Turnovers continues to be the issue and it's been a big issue. Having said that the Texans play disciplined football, they don't get hurt too much by penalties unlike Minnesota (8.3 penalties per game in their last three games). I'm not saying Houston is going to put up 30+ points. They won't. But Minnesota is going to have a really hard time putting points on the board as well against this defense (without JJ Watt) that has allowed their last three QB opponents a QB Rating of 63.1. That's good stuff. The Vikings offense has done virtually nothing in the teams wins and it will finally come back to haunt them. The offense is averaging only 287 total yards of offense in their last three games and only 4.9 yards per play. Watchout favored by a touchdown at home.
Houston won last week, they are a pretty consistent team and they are now 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall dating back to last season. Minnesota is off the charts with a ton of very juicy ATS stats to go crazy on but I'm not biting. They can't cover the spread in every single game. Their two home games have been in National TV. Not that kind of hype today. I really like the Houston defense to do a number on the Vikings and keep the Texans in this game long enough to steal it late.
Trend of the Game: Houston is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.
Houston 17, Minnesota 12
New York Jets +9 (10 Units)
This is the beauty of the NFL. You can look so great one week and be destroying everyone in sight and then you can come out the next week and everyone will wonder what happened. I'm not saying the Steelers are that kind of team but let's not go too crazy over their last performance okay. Big Ben, Mike Tomlin, The Steelers, all automatics when playing on Sunday or Monday Night Football. They really are. But in my recent memory this is the type of game where they struggle. I see both teams putting some points on the board in this one. I mean the Jets come into this game averaging a very respectable 5.9 yards per play on the road this season and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has a QB Rating of 105.3 away from home. Not easy to throw on the Steelers but the Jets pass protection has been good away from home (1 sack allowed in 2 games). As long as Fitzpatrick and the entire team can stay away from turnovers. They have been killer. On the defensive side of things I think Big Ben will have another decent day throwing the ball but the Jets run defense is what will keep them in this game. In two away games this season they've allowed only 79.0 rushing yards per game on 3.4 yards per carry. Not a fan of Leveon Bell in anything today (fantasy included).
Consider this please. The Jets are the kind of team that would go lose to the Browns and then go face the best team in the league the next and probably win. That is why they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games versus a team with a winning record. If you look back at the schedule and the last 6 times the Steelers won a football game, they came out the next game and covered the spread only 1 time. Yes that's right just one time in the following game after a win. I think the Jets can hold onto the ball with a sold running game and overall their D will keep them in this with a very solid run defense that will force Big Ben into 3rd and long situations. Give me Jets and the points.
Trend of the Game: NY Jets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games versus a team with a winning record.
NY Jets 21, Pittsburgh 19
Dallas Cowboys +2.5 (10 Units)
It won't be long now until Marv Lewis is given the chop. Had the team lost to Miami last week it would have gone down then and there believe me on that. So going to Dallas and facing a Cowboys team that is without Tony Romo or Dez Bryant and losing could be the end of things for the long time Bengals coach. Where are the Bengals better than the Cowboys exactly? I just don't see it. Maybe they have a bit of an advantage on the defensive side of things but other than that they haven't shown enough to earn the tag of road favorite in a game like this. Look at the Cowboys offense the last three games. They are averaging 418.3 total yards per game on 6.4 yards per play and they have done that both on the ground and in the air. Not sure that RB Ezekiel Elliott is going to have a monster day against a tough Cincy run defense but in the air QB Dak Prescott has a QB Rating of 112.5 in his last three games passing for 8.8 yards per pass attempt and 253.3 passing yards per game. He has thrown 0 interceptions in those games. That's the key right there. The Bengals secondary allows 7.3 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and that's a concern. On the flip side of things, the Cowboys defense allows yards but they also make plays. I'm not relying on them too much in this one, I think the offense gets the job done.
All these teams the Bengals keep beating are bad teams. Looking back at their schedule they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record on the season (Cowboys are 3-1 coming in). I am well aware of some tremendous stats for Andy Dalton as a road QB and how many spreads he has covered but that comes to an end today. The Cowboys have the offense, even without Dez, to win this game straight up and I think the new era in Dallas is confirmed today as the Boys move to 4-1.
Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record.
Dallas 34, Cincinnati 21
San Diego Chargers +3.5 (10 Units)
Oooooh another California battle today. These are always good and QB Philip Rivers lives for these things. Although one of the reasons the public is not smashing the Chargers as an underdog is because of how good the Oakland Raiders have been and the possibility that they are the real deal this year. I mean they have a 3-1 SU and ATS record so far and their three road wins have been more than impressive but there is concern about their one and only home game. Versus a very good passing QB. Kinda of the same as today. The Chargers are 0-2 on the road this year but they put up 20+ points in both games (Kansas City and Indianapolis) and managed 6.0 yards per play in those games. Oakland's defense in that home game against Atlanta allowed an insane 528 total yards on 8.4 yards per play. Excuse me? Melvin Gordon welcome to the fun house. The Raiders allowed 4.8 yards per carry in that game but even more shocking they allowed 11.4 yards per pass attempt and 389 passing yards to Matt Ryan and friends. Mr. Ryan had a QB Rating of 195.8 in that game. Mr. Rivers has a QB Rating of 133.8 in two road games averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt and throwing 0 interceptions so far away from home. The Chargers are converting a very impressive 42.3% of 3rd downs away from home. With RB Letavius Murray OUT for the Raiders, I think they struggle to run the ball. San Diego already allows only 3.9 yards per carry on 88.0 rushing yards per game in two road games.
Here we go. San Diego is 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games and are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games coming off a straight up loss. Dating back to last season Oakland has been a huge fade at home. They are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. The last 31 times Oakland has covered the spread in a game, the next time out they have managed to cover only 8 spreads. Out of 31. That's crazy. This team just can't find consistency and I doubt it starts against Rivers and the Chargers. THE UNDERDOG IS 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these teams and the Chargers have covered 9 of the last 13 they have played in Oakland. I'm going with Rivers and his squad as they move upstate.
Trend of the Game: The Underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these teams.
San Diego 34, Oakland 31
:toast:
