MistaFlava's 2008 NFL Record: 35-25-3 ATS (+268.50 Units)
Not a perfect week last week by any means but I am up a ton this season and heading towards my largest profits ever in an NFL Regular Season. I have hit almost all my big plays and have come out on top in 9 of the 11 weeks I have placed wagers this season and that is pretty damn good. We are down to the final two weeks of the season and home teams are going to be golden on PRIMETIME TELEVISION if you ask me. A lot of teams are done for the season and have nothing to play for which could make it difficult to back them because they just don't care. Other teams are fighting for their playoff lives and that is pretty much where I am looking when I place my wagers.
The goal for the season remains to hit 65% of my plays or hit the 100 Unit mark.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 2-1 ATS (+9.50 Units)
Week 2: 1-3-1 ATS (-12.00 Units)
Week 3: ---No Plays---
Week 4: 3-2 ATS (+68.50 Units)
Week 5: 5-1 ATS (+44.00 Units)
Week 6: ---No Plays---
Week 7: 2-0 ATS (+35.00 Units)
Week 8: 3-2-1 ATS (+43.00 Units)
Week 9: ---No Plays---
Week 10: ---No Plays---
Week 11: 3-4 ATS (+15.00 Units)
Week 12: 4-4 ATS (-10.00 Units)
Week 13: 6-3 ATS (+28.00 Units)
Week 14: 3-2 ATS (+13.50 Units)
Week 15: 3-2-1 ATS (+34.00 Units)
Week 16: Pending
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I can handle criticism, I am who I am and it's time to get back to a winning week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Not a perfect week last week by any means but I am up a ton this season and heading towards my largest profits ever in an NFL Regular Season. I have hit almost all my big plays and have come out on top in 9 of the 11 weeks I have placed wagers this season and that is pretty damn good. We are down to the final two weeks of the season and home teams are going to be golden on PRIMETIME TELEVISION if you ask me. A lot of teams are done for the season and have nothing to play for which could make it difficult to back them because they just don't care. Other teams are fighting for their playoff lives and that is pretty much where I am looking when I place my wagers.
The goal for the season remains to hit 65% of my plays or hit the 100 Unit mark.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 2-1 ATS (+9.50 Units)
Week 2: 1-3-1 ATS (-12.00 Units)
Week 3: ---No Plays---
Week 4: 3-2 ATS (+68.50 Units)
Week 5: 5-1 ATS (+44.00 Units)
Week 6: ---No Plays---
Week 7: 2-0 ATS (+35.00 Units)
Week 8: 3-2-1 ATS (+43.00 Units)
Week 9: ---No Plays---
Week 10: ---No Plays---
Week 11: 3-4 ATS (+15.00 Units)
Week 12: 4-4 ATS (-10.00 Units)
Week 13: 6-3 ATS (+28.00 Units)
Week 14: 3-2 ATS (+13.50 Units)
Week 15: 3-2-1 ATS (+34.00 Units)
Week 16: Pending
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I can handle criticism, I am who I am and it's time to get back to a winning week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Thursday, December 18
View attachment 6017 Jacksonville Jaguars +6 (10 Units) View attachment 6018
View attachment 6017 Jacksonville Jaguars +6 (10 Units) View attachment 6018
The Indianapolis Colts are the hottest teams in the NFL right now...PERIOD. They have won seven straight games, have solidified a spot in the playoffs after a rough start to the season and are looking like a team that can make a serious run for the Super Bowl this season as long as they can beat Tennessee in the playoffs really. Having said that, I have a small problem with the current win streak the Colts have gone on. First of all, they are only 3-3-1 ATS in those games which means they have won but they have not exactly played fantastic football. Second of all, the best team the Colts beat in that seven game stretch was the Pittsburgh Steelers which is impressive but again, their opponent quality was not great. Looking back at the teams they beat during that streak, the Steelers are actually the only playoff-bound team in there. Those wins were against Detroit (no playoffs), Cincinnati (no playoffs), Cleveland (no playoffs), San Diego (no playoffs), Houston (probably no playoffs) and New England (up in the air right now). This is not to say that Jacksonville is a team heading for the playoffs because they are definitely not, but there is history here and we both know that if Indianapolis comes out and plays the way they did against Detroit, Houston or New England, there is no chance in hell these guys are going to cash your tickets guys. Indianapolis comes into this game averaging 25.3 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done on 323.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.8 yards per play which is nothing to write home about. Jacksonville's defense has actually held their own despite losing a lot of games as they have allowed 23.0 points per game in their last three games but allowed only 320.0 total yards of offense per game in those games on 5.6 yards per play. On the ground, the Colts have been hampered by the lack of an effective running attack as they have rushed for only 84.3 rushing yards per game the last three games on only 3.2 yards per carry. The Jaguars defense has been decent against the run allowing only 98.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 3.7 yards per carry. That will once again force Peyton Manning to force more throws than he has had to in a long time. Manning has completed 76.7% of his passes the last three games for 8.0 yards per pass attempt in those games. He has been outstanding throwing only 2 interceptions with a QB Rating of 104.7 in those three games. Jacksonville's defense has allowed their last three opponents QB's to complete only 59.3% of their passes the last three games for 7.3 yards per pass attempt in those games. They have 4 sacks and 3 interceptions in those same games and their opposing QB's have a QB Rating average of only 82.9 in those games. The big issues I have with the Colts is that they have not been able to hang onto the ball having fumbled a whopping 8 times in their last three games while losing 4 of those eight fumbles. That is a recipe for disaster against a hard hitting Jaguars defense that has forced 5 fumbles in their last three games but that have not recovered any of those fumbles. As always, the Colts have been good on third downs converting 50.0% of their tries the last three games but Jacksonville has actually made some plays defensively on third downs lately and they have allowed their last three opponents to convert only 41.0% of their third down chances. You also have to be impressed with the fact that Jacksonville's defense has held their last three opponents to Field Goal attempts in the RedZone 70.0% of the time in those last three games. They have not allowed all that many touchdowns and that could be huge in terms of covering the spread against a team like the Colts. We all know Peyton Manning is going to lead this offense and score some points in this game but I still like the matchup in terms of toughness for the Jaguars defense because they held these Colts to only 21 points in their first meeting this season and there is no reason to believe they can't come up with more huge plays on third down in this game.
What a disappointing season for the Jacksonville Jaguars and their head coach Jack Del Rio. This is a team that was supposed to compete for a spot in Tampa Bay come February and I am still not too sure where it all went wrong for them. Despite beating the Green Bay Packers 20-16 at home just four days ago, the Jaguars have lost 6 of their last 8 games. So they sit at 5-9 SU right now meaning there is no chance of making the playoffs and that has to be the last thing anyone ever expected after the way this team really came along the last few seasons. Having said all that, this is still a tough team that rarely gets blown out which is why I think this spread is a bit too high. I mean they did lost to Pittsburgh by only 5 points at home earlier this season, they did beat Denver on the road by 7 points earlier this season, they did lost to Tennessee at home by only 10 points (better than a lot of teams can say) and they did keep things close in another few games. All I know though is that the win over Green Bay was huge in terms of regaining confidence, finishing the season strong and having something positive to talk about in the off-season. The issue has really been scoring points for Jacksonville which is again hard to believe seeing how they have three superstars running this offense. The Jaguars come into this game averaging only 15.7 points per game in their last three games but what's funny is that in those games they have actually averaged more offensive yards than the Colts have in that stretch with 329.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play in those games. Indianapolis has been criticez for their poor defense and I'm not too sure why because they have allowed only 10.0 points per game in their last three games and allowed only 256.0 total yards of offense per game on only 4.4 yards per play in those games. Having said that, their last three opponents have been Detroit, Cincinnati and Cleveland and the Colts have somehow struggled against all three at some point. On the ground, Jacksonville has to continue being effective as they have rushed for 113.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.6 yards per carry in those games. I think they have to run, run, run and run some more in this game against a Colts defense that has allowed 91.0 rushing yards per game the last three games on 3.5 yards per carry in those games. I say that because the longer you keep Manning off the field, the colder he gets and the less he can do when he does eventually come back in. Should the Jaguars opt to throw the ball and turn this into a shootout, QB David Garrard has completed 61.3% of his passes the last three games for 6.1 yards per pass attempt. Another good reason to run the ball is the fact that Garrard has been sacked 8 times in the last three games and the Colts have been pass rushing machines their last three games with 8 sacks of their own. They have allowed their last three opponents to complete 64.2% of their passes for 5.2 yards per pass attempt so as long as Garrard can dump the ball off to Maurice Jones Drew he should be fine but it has to be quick against this defense who also have 4 interceptions in their last three games. Anothe reason the Colts have had so much success winning games they have not played well in is because they have forced 5 fumbles in their last three games and have managed to recover 4 of those fumbles in those games. So yes the challenge will be huge for the Jaguars offense but I think the crowd is going to get behind them for the first time in weeks in this game with the team coming off that win over the Packers just four days ago. The fans have accepted that the season is done. The Jaguars have converted only 37.5% of their third down chances the last three games but they should find it a bit easier tonight against a Colts defense that has allowed their last three opponents to convert 47.7% of the time on third downs the last three games. That's a big problem for a team trying to cover such a big spread on the road against such a heated rival team. The Jaguars are at home, they have the hometown crowd and if they can convert on big third downs then they are going to have the edge in this game because Manning won't see the field enough to blow them out. Despite not scoring many points their last three games you have to like the fact that when they do enter the RedZone the Jaguars have scored touchdowns 71.4% of the time and that is going to be a huge factor in this game tonight.
VEGAS TRAP tonight guys, please don't fall for it. No matter how poorly Jacksonville has played this season, Jack Del Rio knows he has a good squad in front of him and he is definitely not the kind to let his guys give up and not show up for a game like this. You have a team heading to the playoffs with a full head of steam going up against a team that has nothing to play for anymore and the line is only 6 points? Yup it does look a little bit fishy and you have to wonder a little bit when you see 70%+ of the public betting on the Colts in this game. Yes Indianapolis has won seven straight games BUT THE COLTS HAVE ONLY BEAT ONE PLAYOFF-BOUND TEAM in that stretch of games so relax please. Jacksonville was pretty damn impressive earlier this season when they walked into Indianapolis and beat the Colts in their own home but how tough is it to beat the same team twice in one season? In college it's tough but in the NFL it happens all the time. With nothing to play for, I don't think the Jaguars have forgotten about the 29-7 home drubbing against these same Colts last season. Jacksonville has always been good as a home underdog as they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home dog and they have covered the spread in 19 of their last 28 games as an underdog in general. Sure they are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games but this is a dog spot and I like it. I think its worth mentioning that Indianapolis is only 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points on the road. I like the Jaguars in an upset here, a win that will put some positive closure on the current season.
Trend of the Game: Jacksonville is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog.
Jacksonville 17, Indianapolis 16
I will post the rest of my WEEK 16 selections sometime on Saturday. Good Luck to all tonight, should be a great game even though the Jaguars don't have anything to play for.
:toast:
What a disappointing season for the Jacksonville Jaguars and their head coach Jack Del Rio. This is a team that was supposed to compete for a spot in Tampa Bay come February and I am still not too sure where it all went wrong for them. Despite beating the Green Bay Packers 20-16 at home just four days ago, the Jaguars have lost 6 of their last 8 games. So they sit at 5-9 SU right now meaning there is no chance of making the playoffs and that has to be the last thing anyone ever expected after the way this team really came along the last few seasons. Having said all that, this is still a tough team that rarely gets blown out which is why I think this spread is a bit too high. I mean they did lost to Pittsburgh by only 5 points at home earlier this season, they did beat Denver on the road by 7 points earlier this season, they did lost to Tennessee at home by only 10 points (better than a lot of teams can say) and they did keep things close in another few games. All I know though is that the win over Green Bay was huge in terms of regaining confidence, finishing the season strong and having something positive to talk about in the off-season. The issue has really been scoring points for Jacksonville which is again hard to believe seeing how they have three superstars running this offense. The Jaguars come into this game averaging only 15.7 points per game in their last three games but what's funny is that in those games they have actually averaged more offensive yards than the Colts have in that stretch with 329.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play in those games. Indianapolis has been criticez for their poor defense and I'm not too sure why because they have allowed only 10.0 points per game in their last three games and allowed only 256.0 total yards of offense per game on only 4.4 yards per play in those games. Having said that, their last three opponents have been Detroit, Cincinnati and Cleveland and the Colts have somehow struggled against all three at some point. On the ground, Jacksonville has to continue being effective as they have rushed for 113.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.6 yards per carry in those games. I think they have to run, run, run and run some more in this game against a Colts defense that has allowed 91.0 rushing yards per game the last three games on 3.5 yards per carry in those games. I say that because the longer you keep Manning off the field, the colder he gets and the less he can do when he does eventually come back in. Should the Jaguars opt to throw the ball and turn this into a shootout, QB David Garrard has completed 61.3% of his passes the last three games for 6.1 yards per pass attempt. Another good reason to run the ball is the fact that Garrard has been sacked 8 times in the last three games and the Colts have been pass rushing machines their last three games with 8 sacks of their own. They have allowed their last three opponents to complete 64.2% of their passes for 5.2 yards per pass attempt so as long as Garrard can dump the ball off to Maurice Jones Drew he should be fine but it has to be quick against this defense who also have 4 interceptions in their last three games. Anothe reason the Colts have had so much success winning games they have not played well in is because they have forced 5 fumbles in their last three games and have managed to recover 4 of those fumbles in those games. So yes the challenge will be huge for the Jaguars offense but I think the crowd is going to get behind them for the first time in weeks in this game with the team coming off that win over the Packers just four days ago. The fans have accepted that the season is done. The Jaguars have converted only 37.5% of their third down chances the last three games but they should find it a bit easier tonight against a Colts defense that has allowed their last three opponents to convert 47.7% of the time on third downs the last three games. That's a big problem for a team trying to cover such a big spread on the road against such a heated rival team. The Jaguars are at home, they have the hometown crowd and if they can convert on big third downs then they are going to have the edge in this game because Manning won't see the field enough to blow them out. Despite not scoring many points their last three games you have to like the fact that when they do enter the RedZone the Jaguars have scored touchdowns 71.4% of the time and that is going to be a huge factor in this game tonight.
VEGAS TRAP tonight guys, please don't fall for it. No matter how poorly Jacksonville has played this season, Jack Del Rio knows he has a good squad in front of him and he is definitely not the kind to let his guys give up and not show up for a game like this. You have a team heading to the playoffs with a full head of steam going up against a team that has nothing to play for anymore and the line is only 6 points? Yup it does look a little bit fishy and you have to wonder a little bit when you see 70%+ of the public betting on the Colts in this game. Yes Indianapolis has won seven straight games BUT THE COLTS HAVE ONLY BEAT ONE PLAYOFF-BOUND TEAM in that stretch of games so relax please. Jacksonville was pretty damn impressive earlier this season when they walked into Indianapolis and beat the Colts in their own home but how tough is it to beat the same team twice in one season? In college it's tough but in the NFL it happens all the time. With nothing to play for, I don't think the Jaguars have forgotten about the 29-7 home drubbing against these same Colts last season. Jacksonville has always been good as a home underdog as they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home dog and they have covered the spread in 19 of their last 28 games as an underdog in general. Sure they are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games but this is a dog spot and I like it. I think its worth mentioning that Indianapolis is only 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points on the road. I like the Jaguars in an upset here, a win that will put some positive closure on the current season.
Trend of the Game: Jacksonville is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog.
Jacksonville 17, Indianapolis 16
I will post the rest of my WEEK 16 selections sometime on Saturday. Good Luck to all tonight, should be a great game even though the Jaguars don't have anything to play for.
:toast:
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