MistaFlava's 2008 NFL Record: 23-17-2 ATS (+204.00 Units) 58%
Apart from my 10 Unit winner on Pittsburgh Thursday Night, I am coming off a huge 50 Unit winner on Monday Night Football betting against my pride and joy the Buffalo Bills but what can I say? I had been there and done that before, I know his this team plays in games like that and sometimes you just have to go with your head and not your hear. So my up and down football season continues and hopefully I can get things back on track with another winner tonight. I consider the NFL my bread and butter and have had winning season for 4-5 years in a row now. The capping is only going to get tougher guys so suck it up, go with your head and lets pick some winners heading into the last month of the season (football is gone for a loooong time after that).
The goal for the season remains to hit 65% of my plays or hit the 100 Unit mark.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 2-1 ATS (+9.50 Units)
Week 2: 1-3-1 ATS (-12.00 Units)
Week 3: ---No Plays---
Week 4: 3-2 ATS (+68.50 Units)
Week 5: 5-1 ATS (+44.00 Units)
Week 6: ---No Plays---
Week 7: 2-0 ATS (+35.00 Units)
Week 8: 3-2-1 ATS (+43.00 Units)
Week 9: ---No Plays---
Week 10: ---No Plays---
Week 11: 3-4 ATS (+15.00 Units)
Week 12: 4-3 ATS (+1.00 Units)
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I can handle criticism, I am who I am and it's time to get back to a winning week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Apart from my 10 Unit winner on Pittsburgh Thursday Night, I am coming off a huge 50 Unit winner on Monday Night Football betting against my pride and joy the Buffalo Bills but what can I say? I had been there and done that before, I know his this team plays in games like that and sometimes you just have to go with your head and not your hear. So my up and down football season continues and hopefully I can get things back on track with another winner tonight. I consider the NFL my bread and butter and have had winning season for 4-5 years in a row now. The capping is only going to get tougher guys so suck it up, go with your head and lets pick some winners heading into the last month of the season (football is gone for a loooong time after that).
The goal for the season remains to hit 65% of my plays or hit the 100 Unit mark.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 2-1 ATS (+9.50 Units)
Week 2: 1-3-1 ATS (-12.00 Units)
Week 3: ---No Plays---
Week 4: 3-2 ATS (+68.50 Units)
Week 5: 5-1 ATS (+44.00 Units)
Week 6: ---No Plays---
Week 7: 2-0 ATS (+35.00 Units)
Week 8: 3-2-1 ATS (+43.00 Units)
Week 9: ---No Plays---
Week 10: ---No Plays---
Week 11: 3-4 ATS (+15.00 Units)
Week 12: 4-3 ATS (+1.00 Units)
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I can handle criticism, I am who I am and it's time to get back to a winning week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Monday, November 24
Green Bay Packers +1 (10 Units)
Green Bay Packers +1 (10 Units)
The Green Bay Packers need to win this game and they need to continue winning games if they want a shot at making the playoffs. How bad do things look right now for the franchise that refused to give QB Brett Favre one more shot with the team? I mean look at what Favre is doing in New York right now and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that it was a bad move for the Packers. So I think it's fair to say that the 5-5 SU Packers and their QB Aaron Rodgers are out to make a statement in this game and in every game they play because the franchise really wants to show that they can win games without the Golden Boy. I have to say that if any team has confidence it has to be these Packers coming off that 37-3 home win over Chicago last weekend. The Packers have been winning games at home but have struggled on the road where they have lost three of their last four games. Having said that, despite losing games on the road against Tennessee and Minnesota in recent weeks, the Packers managed to cover the spread in both those games and they are now 3-0 ATS in their las three road games. That makes Green Bay the most profitable team the last five NFL weeks where they have gone 5-0 ATS in those games. Green Bay comes into this game averaging 26.7 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done on 333.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play in those games. New Orleans defense has been horrendous the last three games allowing 28.7 points per game in those games and allowing 390.3 total yards of offense per game on 6.4 yards per play in those games. On the ground, we can expect to see a lot of RB Ryan Grant in this game as the team is averaging 125.3 rushing yards per game the last three games on 4.7 yards per carry and they are going up against a weak New Orleans run defense that has allowed 115.7 rushing yards per game their last three games on 4.2 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Aaron Rodgers has completed 61.9% of his passes the last three games for 6.4 yards per pass attempt and 2 interceptions in those games. My big concern with the Packers has been pass protection because Rodgers has been sacked 8 times the last three games. However, New Orleans' pass rush has not done jack the last three games recording 0 sacks in those games. They have allowed their last three opponents to complete 59.4% of their passes for 8.2 yards per pass attempt and Rodgers will enjoy the indoors and probably go deep quite a few times in this one. The Saints just don't make big plays on defense as they have 2 interceptions in their last three games and have recovered only 1 fumble in those games. The last three QB's they have faced have an average QB Rating of 100.4 in those games and Rodgers should have his best game in a while. The Packers have struggled big time on third downs the last three games converting only 35.0% of their chances in those games but New Orleans has allowed their last three opponents to convert 40.5% of the time and once again Green Bay should have an easier time getting things done in this one. What I do like however is Grant and Rodgers ability to get into the endzone once they get close. The Packers have scored touchdowns 55.6% of the time their last three games when inside the RedZone which is going to be a problem for the Saints defense which has allowed their last three opponents to score touchdowns 50.0% of the time when inside the Redzone. The Saints punt return coverage unit sucks and something tells me the Packers are going to come up with some huge plays on special teams (which is what this game might very well come down to). The Saints are allowing 14.7 points per first half the last three games and if the Packers get ahead early, I don't think they will have to look back much. Grant will have a huge game and Rodgers should play with a chip on his shoulder. Packers for me.
The New Orleans Saints suck and despite being 5-5 SU right now, I don't think they are going to make the playoffs. Well I guess we are about to find out tonight because this game either pulls them ahead in the playoff race or it drops them back to places they don't want to be. The big question around town right now is the status of Reggie Bush because we all know what he can do on Monday Night Football and we all know how quickly he can change a game (remember those punt return touchdowns earlier this season?). Well as of right now I think he is going to play but he knee is not that good and I don't know how much he can do. New Orleans is playing some decent football as of late and they are coming off a 30-20 win over Kansas City last week as -6 point road favorites. This is a team that has won two straight at home (well one of those games was in London, England) and three of their last four but those three wins have come against San Diego, San Francisco and Oakland...all teams that are 100% not making the playoffs this season. Their loss was against Minnesota, a team that is most likely going to the playoffs. So if you are going to bet on New Orleans at all, doing it at home is probably a good idea where they are 3-1 ATS this season. Having said that, I think they get outplayed tonight. We all know the Saints can score some points as they average 29.0 points per game in their last three games and have done that on 433.0 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play in those games. Green Bay's defense should be ready to face this unit as they have allowed only 16.7 points per game in their last three games and allowed those opponents to average only 314.0 total yards of offense per game on 4.8 yards per play. These days, as a NFC defense, that's pretty damn good. On the ground, New Orleans has struggled recently averaging only 92.7 rushing yards per game the last three games on 3.9 yards per carry with the Deuce. That could be a problem as the Packers have been torched on the ground the last three games allowing 160.3 rushing yards per game in those games on a whopping 5.0 yards per carry. However, do you really think the Saints are going to run the ball all night? Their passing game ego is way too big for that so expect these guys to go to the air no matter what. In the air, QB Drew Brees has completed 63.7% of his passes the last three games for 7.6 yards per pass attempt, having been sacked only 1 time and thrown 4 interceptions with a QB Rating average of 89.2 in those games (same as Aaron Rodgers so not much edge in the QB position). On that note, the Saints might want to consider running the ball a lot more than they plan because the Packers have allowed their last three opponents to complete only 51.0% of their passes for only 4.7 yards per pass attempt, turning them into one of the best if not the best secondary in the NFL the last month or so. They have 5 sacks in those three games to go along with 3 interceptions but they have not forced many fumbles, something they are going to have to do if they want to keep winning. The last three QB's they have faced have an average QB Rating of only 58.2, which is best in the NFL in terms of defenses. The Saints have been very good on third downs the last three games converting 44.7% of their chances but things will not be as easy tonight as the Packers have allowed their last three opponents to convert only 36.4% of their third down chances. What this game is ultimately going to come down to is who can score touchdowns and who settles for field goals. The Saints have scored touchdowns 50% of the time their last three games once inside the RedZone but touchdowns might be tough to come by for this team tonight as Green Bay's RedZone defense has been tremendous and their last three opponents have scored touchdowns only 33.3% of the time and like I said before, that could be the difference in this game. The Packers special teams have been great on both punt and kick returns and unless Reggie can get a hold of a punt and take it to the house, this unit should dominate most of the night, much like the rest of the team is you ask me. New Orleans can score some points but this defense is going to be jacked up and the better defense almost always wins over a powerful offense. Bye Bye Saints backers.
The highlight of my night was going to be yet another chance to see Martin Gramatica's on-field antics but the kicker is out for the season and I don't think we will have another shot to ever see him again. Too bad. Was really looking forward to it. What more can you say about this Green Bay team and the way they have played away from home? I mean you look back at this season and last season and the season before that and you realize that the Packers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games away from home and that's just worth backing if you ask me. I also have to mention that this team has covered the spread in 21 of their last 29 games (one of those being a PUSH) which has them amongst the most profitable NFL teams the last two or three seasons. I know Brett Favre is gone and he is doing pretty damn well in New York but that should motivate Aaron Rodgers to show is worthy and I think he is going to have a huge game and compete with Drew Brees, toss by toss. The Saints have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL as they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games that follow a straight up win the game before. They have also covered only 2 of their last 7 games on Monday Night Football and despite the huge advantage people always talk about when it comes to playing in the SuperDome, I just don't buy it. I think we can expect some points tonight although I do see an offensive struggle at times....YEAH RIGHT!
Trend of the Game: Green Bay is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road games.
Green Bay 29, New Orleans 24
:toast:
The New Orleans Saints suck and despite being 5-5 SU right now, I don't think they are going to make the playoffs. Well I guess we are about to find out tonight because this game either pulls them ahead in the playoff race or it drops them back to places they don't want to be. The big question around town right now is the status of Reggie Bush because we all know what he can do on Monday Night Football and we all know how quickly he can change a game (remember those punt return touchdowns earlier this season?). Well as of right now I think he is going to play but he knee is not that good and I don't know how much he can do. New Orleans is playing some decent football as of late and they are coming off a 30-20 win over Kansas City last week as -6 point road favorites. This is a team that has won two straight at home (well one of those games was in London, England) and three of their last four but those three wins have come against San Diego, San Francisco and Oakland...all teams that are 100% not making the playoffs this season. Their loss was against Minnesota, a team that is most likely going to the playoffs. So if you are going to bet on New Orleans at all, doing it at home is probably a good idea where they are 3-1 ATS this season. Having said that, I think they get outplayed tonight. We all know the Saints can score some points as they average 29.0 points per game in their last three games and have done that on 433.0 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play in those games. Green Bay's defense should be ready to face this unit as they have allowed only 16.7 points per game in their last three games and allowed those opponents to average only 314.0 total yards of offense per game on 4.8 yards per play. These days, as a NFC defense, that's pretty damn good. On the ground, New Orleans has struggled recently averaging only 92.7 rushing yards per game the last three games on 3.9 yards per carry with the Deuce. That could be a problem as the Packers have been torched on the ground the last three games allowing 160.3 rushing yards per game in those games on a whopping 5.0 yards per carry. However, do you really think the Saints are going to run the ball all night? Their passing game ego is way too big for that so expect these guys to go to the air no matter what. In the air, QB Drew Brees has completed 63.7% of his passes the last three games for 7.6 yards per pass attempt, having been sacked only 1 time and thrown 4 interceptions with a QB Rating average of 89.2 in those games (same as Aaron Rodgers so not much edge in the QB position). On that note, the Saints might want to consider running the ball a lot more than they plan because the Packers have allowed their last three opponents to complete only 51.0% of their passes for only 4.7 yards per pass attempt, turning them into one of the best if not the best secondary in the NFL the last month or so. They have 5 sacks in those three games to go along with 3 interceptions but they have not forced many fumbles, something they are going to have to do if they want to keep winning. The last three QB's they have faced have an average QB Rating of only 58.2, which is best in the NFL in terms of defenses. The Saints have been very good on third downs the last three games converting 44.7% of their chances but things will not be as easy tonight as the Packers have allowed their last three opponents to convert only 36.4% of their third down chances. What this game is ultimately going to come down to is who can score touchdowns and who settles for field goals. The Saints have scored touchdowns 50% of the time their last three games once inside the RedZone but touchdowns might be tough to come by for this team tonight as Green Bay's RedZone defense has been tremendous and their last three opponents have scored touchdowns only 33.3% of the time and like I said before, that could be the difference in this game. The Packers special teams have been great on both punt and kick returns and unless Reggie can get a hold of a punt and take it to the house, this unit should dominate most of the night, much like the rest of the team is you ask me. New Orleans can score some points but this defense is going to be jacked up and the better defense almost always wins over a powerful offense. Bye Bye Saints backers.
The highlight of my night was going to be yet another chance to see Martin Gramatica's on-field antics but the kicker is out for the season and I don't think we will have another shot to ever see him again. Too bad. Was really looking forward to it. What more can you say about this Green Bay team and the way they have played away from home? I mean you look back at this season and last season and the season before that and you realize that the Packers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games away from home and that's just worth backing if you ask me. I also have to mention that this team has covered the spread in 21 of their last 29 games (one of those being a PUSH) which has them amongst the most profitable NFL teams the last two or three seasons. I know Brett Favre is gone and he is doing pretty damn well in New York but that should motivate Aaron Rodgers to show is worthy and I think he is going to have a huge game and compete with Drew Brees, toss by toss. The Saints have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL as they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games that follow a straight up win the game before. They have also covered only 2 of their last 7 games on Monday Night Football and despite the huge advantage people always talk about when it comes to playing in the SuperDome, I just don't buy it. I think we can expect some points tonight although I do see an offensive struggle at times....YEAH RIGHT!
Trend of the Game: Green Bay is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road games.
Green Bay 29, New Orleans 24
:toast:
