MistaFlava's 2008 NFL Record: 18-13-2 ATS (+153.00 Units) 58%
Not having the kind of week I was expecting, as a matter of fact this is my worst week to date in the NFL but it's time to bounce back. I am a Buffalo Bills season ticket holder and will be attending tonight's game. Below you will find my points and views on this game and hopefully the weather holds up because right now it's look like it's going to snow. If you are at the game tonight feel free to give me a shout and we can have a few cold ones before it starts. MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL IN BUFFALO BABY, DOESN'T GET BETTER THAN THAT!
The goal for the season remains to hit 65% of my plays or hit the 100 Unit mark.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 2-1 ATS (+9.50 Units)
Week 2: 1-3-1 ATS (-12.00 Units)
Week 3: ---No Plays---
Week 4: 3-2 ATS (+68.50 Units)
Week 5: 5-1 ATS (+44.00 Units)
Week 6: ---No Plays---
Week 7: 2-0 ATS (+35.00 Units)
Week 8: 3-2-1 ATS (+43.00 Units)
Week 9: ---No Plays---
Week 10: ---No Plays---
Week 11: 2-4 ATS (-35.00 Units)
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I can handle criticism, I am who I am and it's time to get back to a winning week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Not having the kind of week I was expecting, as a matter of fact this is my worst week to date in the NFL but it's time to bounce back. I am a Buffalo Bills season ticket holder and will be attending tonight's game. Below you will find my points and views on this game and hopefully the weather holds up because right now it's look like it's going to snow. If you are at the game tonight feel free to give me a shout and we can have a few cold ones before it starts. MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL IN BUFFALO BABY, DOESN'T GET BETTER THAN THAT!
The goal for the season remains to hit 65% of my plays or hit the 100 Unit mark.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 2-1 ATS (+9.50 Units)
Week 2: 1-3-1 ATS (-12.00 Units)
Week 3: ---No Plays---
Week 4: 3-2 ATS (+68.50 Units)
Week 5: 5-1 ATS (+44.00 Units)
Week 6: ---No Plays---
Week 7: 2-0 ATS (+35.00 Units)
Week 8: 3-2-1 ATS (+43.00 Units)
Week 9: ---No Plays---
Week 10: ---No Plays---
Week 11: 2-4 ATS (-35.00 Units)
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I can handle criticism, I am who I am and it's time to get back to a winning week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Monday, November 17
Cleveland Browns +5 (50 Units)
***MONDAY NIGHT PLAY OF THE MONTH***
Cleveland Browns +5 (50 Units)
***MONDAY NIGHT PLAY OF THE MONTH***
The Cleveland Browns look like they are back on track and they have had a bunch of time to sit back, work on some plays and put things together for a late season run at the playoffs. Believe it or not the AFC is wide open right now when it comes to wild card spots and if the Browns can win this game they have a great shot. The last time we saw the Browns was in their dramatic 34-30 Thursday Night Football loss to Denver about a week and a half ago and like I mentioned before, this is one heck of long layoff they have had so you would they are prepared for just about anything. Playing in this kind of weather is nothing new for QB Brady Quinn or the rest of the team as they are from just down the road in Cleveland (closes NFL city to Buffalo). Although the Browns are currently 3-6 SU, they have kept games close and are actually 5-4 ATS in those games. They have actually looked a lot better on the road than they have at home going into Jacksonville and beating the Jaguars while coming close to beating Washington on the road the week before in a 14-11 loss. Their other road games were a 20-12 win over Cincinnati and a 28-10 loss to Baltimore. Altogether they have played well away from home and the trend should continue tonight. THIS IS DO OR DIE TIME FOR ROMEO and his boys. Cleveland comes into this game averaging a very decent 26.7 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done on 333.3 total yards of offense and 5.8 yards per play which is a lot more than the Bills offense can say as of late. Buffalo's defense has all of a sudden gone M.I.A. as they have allowed 23.7 points per game in their last three games and allowed 341.7 total yards of offense per game in those games. Sure they are due to play much better at home tonight on a Monday Night but let's face it, this game is going to be close. On the ground, RB Jamal Lewis probably won't have an easy time despite leading the team to 105.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 4.1 yards per carry. Buffalo's run defense has been good allowing only 97.3 rushing yards per game the last three games on 3.1 yards per carry. In the air however, QB Brady Quinn makes his second NFL start and it could be another good one. Quinn completed 65.7% of his passes in his debut for 239 passing yards, 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions. Impressive. Despite the weather, I think Quinn can have another good game tonight as he is going up against a defense that has allowed their last three opponent QB's to complete 69.6% of their passes for 8.0 yards per pass attempt which is horrendous. They have had little or not pressure on opposing QB's in those games with only 2 sacks which won't work against the Browns who's offensive line is playing great football and has allowed only 2 sacks the last three games. I am also concerned that the Bills have only 1 interception the last three games and it really looks like they need some help in that secondary. Cleveland has averaged only 4.0 penalties per game their last three games showing great discplined and I think they can have some success on third downs aganist a Bills defense that has allowed their last three opponents to convert 47.5% of the time on third downs. OUCH! The Bills defense has done a great job however of living up their typical 'Bend but don't break' style of defense, forcing 12 field goal attempts the last three games and allowing RedZone touchdowns only 33.3% of the time the last three games. Special teams could be huge tonight and the Browns definitely have the edge in both the punt return and the kickoff return games so expect some big plays. The Browns offense has been Jekyll and Hydish pretty much all season. Brady Quinn is not the most talented guy but we know he can get the job done, he seems to have fantastic QB on-field vision and I think he is used to elements like the ones he is going to face tonight. His QB Rating right now is 104.3 and although he probably won't have the same type of performance on the road, this should be a low scoring game with a lot of weird plays and as long as he can keep those chains moving, the Browns have a great chance at the win here.
The Buffalo Bills are my team and I am a hardcore Bills fan. Having said that, I don't like the way they are playing football lately and I was the one saying that even after their 4-0 start to the season, they were still one of the most overrated teams in the NFL. Their offense (play calling mostly) has been pedestrian and horrendous the last few weeks. Dick Jauron doesn't have a clue what he is doing half the time and I cannot believe the Bills just re-signed him for another three years. The defense, which was top notch earlier in the season, has suffered from the offensive struggles and seem to have problems stopping just about everyone as of late. The special teams explosiveness of 2007 (Mcgee and Parrish) has also completely vanished although Leodis McKelvin has been superb and my feeling is that he gets the bulk of the returns in this game to see if he can spark these guys once and for all. Make no mistake about it. After losing three straight games and four of their last five games, the Bills are in desperate need of a win here and the general philosophy would be that they are going to win huge at home on a Monday Night. They are 3-2 ATS as a favorite this season with a 2-2 ATS record at home. You have to remember that this is the same Bills team that beat Oakland 24-23 at home and that recently lost 26-17 to the New York Jets (both as favorites). What once looked like an easy path to the playoffs (would be their first visit in more than 10 years) has now turned into a dog fight for a possible wild card or division title but this team has no momentum whatsoever nor do they have any kind of confidence heading into this game. We all remember how well the Bills played in Trend Edwards debut a year ago on Monday Night Football against the Dallas Cowboys but that was different...Buffalo was an underdog then and nobody expected anything out of them. Tonight, the fans expect the world out of them. The Bills come into this game averaging only 14.3 points per game the last three games this season on only 266.3 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play in those games. That's horrendous if you ask me. The Bills will probably score some points tonight as they face a Cleveland defense that has really sucked the last three games allowing 29.3 points per game and allowing a whopping 457.7 yards per game on 6.5 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Marshawn Lynch has really struggled to get anything going as of late as the team has averaged only 69.7 rushing yards per game the last three games on 3.4 yards per carry. Cleveland's run defense has allowed 143.0 rushing yards per game their last three games on 4.4 yards per play but I am not yet convinced that Marshawn can play in snow or really cold weather being a California boy and all. In the air, QB Trent Edwards has done a decent job the last three games completing 62.4% of his passes for 6.3 yards per pass attempt but he has thrown 5 interceptions in those games and that is a bit concerning. As long as the weather holds up tonight he should be able to take a few deep shots to WR Lee Evans as the Cleveland defense has allowed their last three opponents to complete 58.4% of their passes for a whopping 8.3 yards per pass attempt. The offensive line has allowed 9 sacks in their last three games and tonight could be yet another night of struggles for this unit as the Browns pass rush has 6 sacks in their last three games and they have kept opposing QB's uncomfortable to some point. However, this secondary has only 1 interception in their last three games so Edwards should make some plays. I would be calling for a Buffalo blowout if they had been playing better but the fact that Edwards QB Rating the last three games is only 65.2 does not have me inspired and if the Bills continue to struggle on offense, which they probably will, there is no way they are winning this game by more than a field goal in the end. Fumbles have been a huge problem for the Bills in recent weeks as they have fumbled 7 times in the last three games and lost 4 of those fumbles. Despite being a disciplined team all season, the Bills have taken 5.7 penalties per game the last three games for 44.7 penalty yards per game which is something Jauron really has to control because the Browns have been very disciplined lately and useless penalties in this kind of weather is going to do these guys no good whatsoever. Buffalo has been good on third downs and I expect that success to continue tonight as the Browns defense has allowed 51.1% of third down chances to be converted against them the last three games and this is the kind of defense Buffalo needs to face. Another reason I won't take Buffalo in a blowout tonight is the fact that they are one of the worst RedZone offenses in the NFL and in their last three games they have scored touchdowns only 33.3% of the time while in the RedZone. Field Goals just won't cut it in this game because the weather is bad and every point counts. The other issue I have is that the Bills are extremely slow starters and have managed only 3.3 points per first quarter (6.3 points per first half) the last three games compared to Cleveland's 16.7 points per first half their last three games. This could be a game the Bills find themselves playing from behind and although I see that happening, I also see Edwards leading the boys on a game winning field goal drive with no time left on the clock. That's the only way to go on a Monday Night in Buffalo.
This is just too many points. No matter how much of a hardcore Bills fan I am and no matter how much I support the team, I have to be honest and say that the Browns are a pretty good matchup for these guys and they should have no problems keeping the game close. The weatherman is calling for some very windy and snowy conditions (im gonna freeze my ass off no doubt, another reason why I am leaving in an hour to tailgate) and that means both offenses are probably going to have problems handling the ball all night. I just don't know what is going on with this Bills team. If you ask me coaching is 90% of the problem, I don't like Dick Jauron and never have but ss long as WR Josh Reed, DE Aaron Schobel and S Donte Whitner are out (they are all missing again tonight), this Bills team is going to continue to struggle on both sides of the ball and I am not willing to back them with my cash. What I can tell you is that coming off pathetic defensive performances, Cleveland has been one of the best ATS teams going 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 30+ points in their previous game. Buffalo has dominated bad road teams covering the spread in 13 of their last 16 home games versus teams with losing road records but in these elements, both teams are game. This is the kind of weather both teams have learned to play in and I don't think either team has the edge playing in this cold and possible snow. Cleveland has covered the spread in 17 of their last 24 games and they ae 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. As a die hard fan I really wanted to bet on the Bills but I can't do it and I love Cleveland to cover the spread more than any other recent NFL play I have made. I never bet on underdogs unless I think they can win the game but I will make an exception and call for my Bills to win this thing on a last second field goal by K Ryan Lindell with no time left on the clock. BILLS AT THE BUZZER!
Trend of the Game: Cleveland is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games that follow a game where they allowed 30+ points.
Buffalo 15, Cleveland 13
:toast:
The Buffalo Bills are my team and I am a hardcore Bills fan. Having said that, I don't like the way they are playing football lately and I was the one saying that even after their 4-0 start to the season, they were still one of the most overrated teams in the NFL. Their offense (play calling mostly) has been pedestrian and horrendous the last few weeks. Dick Jauron doesn't have a clue what he is doing half the time and I cannot believe the Bills just re-signed him for another three years. The defense, which was top notch earlier in the season, has suffered from the offensive struggles and seem to have problems stopping just about everyone as of late. The special teams explosiveness of 2007 (Mcgee and Parrish) has also completely vanished although Leodis McKelvin has been superb and my feeling is that he gets the bulk of the returns in this game to see if he can spark these guys once and for all. Make no mistake about it. After losing three straight games and four of their last five games, the Bills are in desperate need of a win here and the general philosophy would be that they are going to win huge at home on a Monday Night. They are 3-2 ATS as a favorite this season with a 2-2 ATS record at home. You have to remember that this is the same Bills team that beat Oakland 24-23 at home and that recently lost 26-17 to the New York Jets (both as favorites). What once looked like an easy path to the playoffs (would be their first visit in more than 10 years) has now turned into a dog fight for a possible wild card or division title but this team has no momentum whatsoever nor do they have any kind of confidence heading into this game. We all remember how well the Bills played in Trend Edwards debut a year ago on Monday Night Football against the Dallas Cowboys but that was different...Buffalo was an underdog then and nobody expected anything out of them. Tonight, the fans expect the world out of them. The Bills come into this game averaging only 14.3 points per game the last three games this season on only 266.3 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play in those games. That's horrendous if you ask me. The Bills will probably score some points tonight as they face a Cleveland defense that has really sucked the last three games allowing 29.3 points per game and allowing a whopping 457.7 yards per game on 6.5 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Marshawn Lynch has really struggled to get anything going as of late as the team has averaged only 69.7 rushing yards per game the last three games on 3.4 yards per carry. Cleveland's run defense has allowed 143.0 rushing yards per game their last three games on 4.4 yards per play but I am not yet convinced that Marshawn can play in snow or really cold weather being a California boy and all. In the air, QB Trent Edwards has done a decent job the last three games completing 62.4% of his passes for 6.3 yards per pass attempt but he has thrown 5 interceptions in those games and that is a bit concerning. As long as the weather holds up tonight he should be able to take a few deep shots to WR Lee Evans as the Cleveland defense has allowed their last three opponents to complete 58.4% of their passes for a whopping 8.3 yards per pass attempt. The offensive line has allowed 9 sacks in their last three games and tonight could be yet another night of struggles for this unit as the Browns pass rush has 6 sacks in their last three games and they have kept opposing QB's uncomfortable to some point. However, this secondary has only 1 interception in their last three games so Edwards should make some plays. I would be calling for a Buffalo blowout if they had been playing better but the fact that Edwards QB Rating the last three games is only 65.2 does not have me inspired and if the Bills continue to struggle on offense, which they probably will, there is no way they are winning this game by more than a field goal in the end. Fumbles have been a huge problem for the Bills in recent weeks as they have fumbled 7 times in the last three games and lost 4 of those fumbles. Despite being a disciplined team all season, the Bills have taken 5.7 penalties per game the last three games for 44.7 penalty yards per game which is something Jauron really has to control because the Browns have been very disciplined lately and useless penalties in this kind of weather is going to do these guys no good whatsoever. Buffalo has been good on third downs and I expect that success to continue tonight as the Browns defense has allowed 51.1% of third down chances to be converted against them the last three games and this is the kind of defense Buffalo needs to face. Another reason I won't take Buffalo in a blowout tonight is the fact that they are one of the worst RedZone offenses in the NFL and in their last three games they have scored touchdowns only 33.3% of the time while in the RedZone. Field Goals just won't cut it in this game because the weather is bad and every point counts. The other issue I have is that the Bills are extremely slow starters and have managed only 3.3 points per first quarter (6.3 points per first half) the last three games compared to Cleveland's 16.7 points per first half their last three games. This could be a game the Bills find themselves playing from behind and although I see that happening, I also see Edwards leading the boys on a game winning field goal drive with no time left on the clock. That's the only way to go on a Monday Night in Buffalo.
This is just too many points. No matter how much of a hardcore Bills fan I am and no matter how much I support the team, I have to be honest and say that the Browns are a pretty good matchup for these guys and they should have no problems keeping the game close. The weatherman is calling for some very windy and snowy conditions (im gonna freeze my ass off no doubt, another reason why I am leaving in an hour to tailgate) and that means both offenses are probably going to have problems handling the ball all night. I just don't know what is going on with this Bills team. If you ask me coaching is 90% of the problem, I don't like Dick Jauron and never have but ss long as WR Josh Reed, DE Aaron Schobel and S Donte Whitner are out (they are all missing again tonight), this Bills team is going to continue to struggle on both sides of the ball and I am not willing to back them with my cash. What I can tell you is that coming off pathetic defensive performances, Cleveland has been one of the best ATS teams going 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 30+ points in their previous game. Buffalo has dominated bad road teams covering the spread in 13 of their last 16 home games versus teams with losing road records but in these elements, both teams are game. This is the kind of weather both teams have learned to play in and I don't think either team has the edge playing in this cold and possible snow. Cleveland has covered the spread in 17 of their last 24 games and they ae 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. As a die hard fan I really wanted to bet on the Bills but I can't do it and I love Cleveland to cover the spread more than any other recent NFL play I have made. I never bet on underdogs unless I think they can win the game but I will make an exception and call for my Bills to win this thing on a last second field goal by K Ryan Lindell with no time left on the clock. BILLS AT THE BUZZER!
Trend of the Game: Cleveland is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games that follow a game where they allowed 30+ points.
Buffalo 15, Cleveland 13
:toast:
ope:
hno:
